Me, Elsewhere: Overcoming a Long Losing Streak

In my latest at Hardball Times, I’ve taken a break from my series on the 1987 draft to focus on a topic nearer and dearer to our hearts. My 100th article at THT focuses on teams of the past three decades that lost at least 10 straight games during the season and still wound up with a winning record.

About 11% of teams that endured such a streak finished above .500 for the season. One, the 1982 Atlanta Braves, reached the postseason. (As our pal Andy at Baseball-Reference observes, those Braves were the last team to make the playoffs despite a double-digit losing streak.) If the Padres hold on over the final few weeks, they will have done something that almost never happens.

Kinda cool, huh? Enjoy the article

Two Is More Than One

I finally made it to a game Tuesday night. About time… I get cranky when I can’t get out to the ballpark, and it had been way too long.

Ah, who am I kidding? I’m always cranky. Continue reading ›

The ‘W’ Word

A win? Huh, there’s a novel concept.

It was just like old times on Monday night, with the Padres doing the little things… strong pitching, strong defense, timely hitting. What more do you need? As strategies go, it beats hoping the Giants and Rockies keep losing.

To the bullet points:

  • Tim Stauffer did a great job starting in place of Mat Latos (stomach flu) on short notice. Despite having thrown 13 pitches in relief on Sunday, Stauffer came out and gave the Padres four innings and left with a 3-1 lead. On another note, the Channel 4 broadcast had his fastball at 92-95 mph; I don’t know that I’ve ever seen him throw that hard. It’s early and there’s still plenty of 2010 left, but Stauffer has to get a serious look at next year’s rotation. He is finally looking like the pitcher the Padres thought they drafted.
  • Luke Gregerson served up a homer to Scott Podsednik on an 0-2 pitch. Podsednik once went an entire season (2005, 568 PA) without hitting a single home run. No offense, Luke, but damn.
  • Mike Adams deserved the win. I’m glad to see the official scorer made the right choice in giving it to him. Between getting Andre Ethier to chase a slider down and in to end the seventh, to making a crazy behind-the-back-throwing-from-a-siting-position play on Matt Kemp’s grounder up the middle, Adams took care of business when the Padres needed him most.
  • Heath Bell looked a little pissed out on the mound. That’s good. We need him to be a little pissed. Those curve balls he threw to Jay Gibbons and Podsednik were all kinds of filthy.
  • It’s good to see Nick Hundley come through when used. Thanks to Yorvit Torrealba’s surprising season, Hundley has become something of a forgotten man, but he delivered on offense and on defense Monday night. The home run was nice, but I also liked the way he smothered the pitch that fanned Gibbons and then threw to first for the out. So did Bell, who could be seen mouthing the words “thank you” to Hundley after the play.
  • The run in the seventh was huge. After Gregerson coughed up his homer, the Padres came right back against erstwhile Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton. Down in the count, Aaron Cunningham showed nice patience and drove a 1-2 fastball down the line in right to lead off the inning. Chris Denorfia, who gave a clinic on how not to bunt, did a great job getting on top of a 3-2 fastball from Broxton and pounding it to the right side, moving Cunningham to third. David Eckstein then — again with two strikes, and after having fouled off a couple tough pitches — flied to medium center, plating Cunningham with ease.
  • Ryan Ludwick still looks lost at the plate. The “hit” was a ground ball to deep shortstop. I can’t believe the Miguel Tejada trade is working out so much better. Who knew he had anything left to offer and could still play a quasi-legitimate shortstop?
  • I don’t mind that Matt Stairs is striking out in a third of his plate appearances, but I sure would like to see him go down swinging once in a while. Apparently he’s been caught looking just six times this season, but it sure seems like those all have come in the last two weeks.

Enough of my whining. A win is a win, and we’ll take it. Latos gives it another shot Tuesday night against southpaw Clayton Kershaw. That should be fun to watch… especially if it results in another victory for the home team.

Nine Thoughts for Nine Losses

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Losing nine straight down the stretch stinks. There is no other way to put it. Despite their current two-game lead in the National League West, the Padres find themselves teetering at the edge of an uncomfortable precipice. As I said earlier in the week, when the streak was a more manageable six games, “…if the overachievers from San Diego don’t get back to playing smart baseball soon, they could find themselves looking up before long.”

While the increasingly useless Dodgers were busy blowing a late lead to the Giants in Los Angeles, the Rockies were taking it to the Padres. After the Phillies debacle that started the slide, I’d expressed concern that the Rockies were still lingering:

Sure, they’re eight games back with 32 to go, but as we learned in 2007, they don’t need much room to operate. The Rockies were 6 1/2 back with 13 to go that year and it didn’t present a problem for them.

Eight back with 32 to go? Man, that sounds comfy. Colorado is now 5 1/2 back with 27 to go. Yeah, that didn’t take long at all. And yeah, I still think the Rockies are “the most talent-laden team in the division.”

Did I mention the stink? Or the uncomfortable precipice? Continue reading ›

Finder of Books, Keeper of Dreams

What are hopes, what are plans?
–Johann Christof Friedrich von Schiller

Man, if you gotta ask you’ll never know.
–Louis Armstrong

As you can see, I’ve located the copy of Bartlett’s Familiar Quotations that eluded me the other day. It was right in front of me, on a bookshelf full of many familiar baseball titles, as well as works by Bill Bryson, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, and other personal favorites.

I couldn’t have found the book without Cory Luebke’s help. Is there anything he can’t do? Continue reading ›

Mailbag: Are the Padres Stealing Wins?

Bad timing for the headline, but this is a fun one…

Hi Geoff,

Here’s a question for your mailbag:

I hate it when the Padres steal a base. Why? Because Mark Grant and Dick Enberg (whom I love) inevitably bring up that stupid correlation between stolen bases and wins this year for the Pads. Is this correlation outside of the norm for the league? What about doubles? Do the Padres tend to win as often when they hit at least one double?

It’s kind of like saying that the Padres are more likely to win when they do things well. Well… duh?

Thanks,
Andy

Thanks, Andy, for the question. It’s funny you should mention this; I was just wondering the same thing a few weeks ago. I actually started running numbers and drafting an article, but then stopped because it seemed heavy on the duh factor and I wasn’t sure anyone else would find it interesting.

First, a brief philosophical interlude… People love stories. People love when things makes sense. One of the key narratives coming into the 2010 season was that the Padres would be aggressive on the bases this year. We heard the story from the beginning of spring training and came to believe it. Continue reading ›

Who Moved My… What’s That Thing Called?

If you can separate yourself from the experience for a moment, there’s no denying this is fascinating stuff. Everyone loves an underdog, but everyone also loves a train wreck. When the two collide… it usually ends up as reality television, but that’s another story (doubtless told by an idiot).

I’ve heard that people are panicking on the heels of seven straight losses. You know what’s the worst thing you can say to a person who is panicking? Don’t panic.

I have no idea if that’s true, but it sounds good. I said it with authority and conviction… it seems plausible. So I won’t tell you not to panic. Continue reading ›

Me, Elsewhere: What if the Padres Had Drafted Travis Fryman?

The second installment of my “Reimagining the 1987 draft” series is up at Hardball Times. In our alternate reality, the Padres don’t take Texas right-hander Kevin Garner with the 10th pick overall, choosing instead Florida high schooler Travis Fryman.

In this scenario, Fryman would have been the Padres’ third baseman during the Ken Caminiti years (Cammy never gets traded to San Diego because Steve Finley is with the White Sox, not the Astros). In a fun coincidence, Fryman’s most similar player according to Baseball-Reference is… you guessed it, Caminiti.

On the not-so-fun side, Caminiti was a much better player during his Padres tenure than Fryman was during that same stretch:

Player     PA   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+  WAR
Fryman   2593 .276 .335 .447 100  12.1
Caminiti 2351 .295 .384 .540 146  18.6

I touch a bit on the Caminiti/Fryman comparison in the article and also marvel at the idea of Fryman and Gary Sheffield on the left side of the infield in ’92. One comparison I didn’t make but which strikes me as interesting is that between Fryman (who came up as a shortstop) and Khalil Greene. Here are their numbers through age 27 (per 162 games):

Player  AB  R   H 2B 3B HR RBI BB   K   BA  OBP  SLG OPS+
Fryman 637 89 175 35  5 22 100 60 141 .274 .336 .445 107
Greene 587 80 150 40  4 22  86 45 123 .254 .312 .444 102

Fryman moved off shortstop at age 24 and was flawed as a hitter in many of the same ways as Greene, albeit to a lesser degree. Fryman also didn’t have, as far as I know, personal issues that kept him from fulfilling his potential.

It’s not much of a stretch to say that Fryman is the player we hoped Greene would become. Then again, given the Padres’ poor track record in terms of developing young infielders, maybe Fryman wouldn’t have enjoyed the career he had. Or maybe the Padres would have traded him for that era’s equivalent of Brian Buchanan, say, Mike Simms?

Just a little something fun to ponder while we wait for this year’s Padres to snap out of their current funk. If you like geeking out on what might have been, read the article.

Toast

It’s all about expectations. If you’d told me before the season that the Padres would have 76 wins on September 1, I’d have been thrilled. If you’d told me the same on August 25, when they won their 76th game, not so much.

Bad time for a six-game losing streak. Then again, is there ever a good time for one? Continue reading ›

Tuesday Links (31 Aug 10)

So, yeah…