Love Me Non-Tender

by Geoff Young on Dec 22, 2003 (Comments Off) Comments

As you probably know, Saturday was the non-tender deadline. The Pads did not offer 2004 contracts to Mike Matthews, Miguel Ojeda, or Todd Sears. They did offer one to Brian Buchanan. No big surprises there.

Elsewhere in the league, there were some interesting players who became free agents. Several could be useful to the Padres:

Starters

  • Jason Johnson (R) Pretty much a league-average pitcher the past three years. Hittable, weak strikeout-to-walk ratio. Averaged just under six innings per start in 2003. Pass.
  • Damian Moss (L) One good season, one bad in the bigs. Career strikeout-to-walk ratio is barely break even. Less than five punchouts per nine last year. No thanks.
  • Mark Redman (L) Four full seasons in the big leagues: ERA+ 111, 100, 100, 112. Left-handed, local product, consistent. Stepped up his game in 2003. Coming into his own at 29 or a one-year anomaly? Trends are good. This might be a guy the Pads should consider.

Relievers

  • Danys Baez (R) Power arm. Can start. ERA+ of 113 over 291 career innings. Better numbers as a reliever. A useful arm for someone. Wouldn’t mind seeing the Padres nab him.
  • Valerio De Los Santos (L) League-average pitcher with good stuff. Injury-plagued career. Intriguing gamble, but probably not worth the risk.
  • Jeremy Fikac (R) Known quantity. Feel-good story. Gives up too many homers. Hasn’t had much success at the big-league level. Could provide depth at Triple-A and fill in for short periods if someone goes down during the season.
  • Braden Looper (R) Another power arm with a career ERA+ of 113 (over 391 innings). Good but not great ratios. Like Baez, has closer experience. Pads probably aren’t looking for another right-hander at this point, and Baez and Looper may be a tad expensive because of their saves last year, but either one would be a good fit if there’s room.
  • Scott Sauerbeck (L) Subpar season after brilliant 2002. Success is almost entirely dependent on control. Durable (65+ appearances each of his five seasons). Career ERA+ of 120 over 324 innings. Tough to hit. May not command top dollar due to his relatively poor showing in 2003. Not a bad guy to ink to a one-year deal.
  • Scott Strickland (R) Dominant when healthy. Career ERA+ of 134 over 236 innings. Worked just 20 innings last year and is coming off surgery. Depending on the health reports, could be a good gamble. Probably not the best fit for San Diego right now.

Hitters

  • Jay Payton Legitimate center field with good hitting skills and some pop. Injuries delayed the start of his big-league career. Could be a good pickup as long as he doesn’t command too much money thanks to his Coors-inflated numbers of a year ago (see Jeffrey Hammonds).

If it were me, I’d go after Redman (who earned $2.15M last year as a member of the Marlins) for the rotation if I didn’t think I could sign Greg Maddux. I’m guessing 2 years for $7M would do the trick. [Editor's note: The Athletics have just re-signed Redman at a reported $12M for 3 years; not a bad deal for either side.] Then I’d ink Payton, assuming he could be had for roughly the apparent going rate of 2 years for $6M. If he insisted on more than two years or more than $4M per, I’d pass. Finally, I’d try to trade Jay Witasick and sign Sauerbeck as the second lefty in the pen.

Places to Visit, Things to Do

  • The A-Rod Mess (Baseball Prospectus). I honestly haven’t been paying real close attention to this whole situtation because I’ve been too busy obssessing over such arcane items as the relative merits of Sterling Hitchcock and Ismael Valdes (which we’ll get back to later this week), but regular reader Howard Lynch forwarded me this article by Joe Sheehan. It’s an excellent read, and what Sheehan has to say makes a lot of sense. Owners must hate guys who can present the union’s perspective in such a logical manner and actually distract Joe Fan from the fact that for as much money as players make, there is someone paying their salary who makes a great deal more.
  • Baseball Beat A blog with a twist. Where most of us write Monday through Friday, Rich covers the weekends so folks can get their fix while we’re resting. Right now he’s got an interesting look at Mickey Mantle’s place in history and an interview with Aaron Gleeman (blogs must be gaining legitimacy; the purveyors of information are now becoming the information itself).

That’s all for now. More as it happens…

Hitchcock and Valdes

by Geoff Young on Dec 18, 2003 (Comments Off) Comments

According to the U-T, Sterling Hitchcock and Ismael Valdes have passed physicals and been signed to compete with Kevin Jarvis for the number five spot in the rotation. A few items of note:

  • Both were inked to 1-year deals for $800k plus incentives.
  • The two kids, Ben Howard and Dennis Tankersley, are not mentioned as contestants in the battle for number five.
  • Greg Maddux is still listed as the leading candidate for the number one slot.
  • Kevin Towers on Hitchcock: "He’s got a lot of heart and a great split-finger fastball. And he’s left-handed, which is big in this division."
  • Towers on Valdes: "Ismael can throw four pitches for strikes."
  • Hitchcock on himself: "I’m completely healthy. And when I’m healthy, I’m not afraid of competing… I’m very glad to be back. I’m a little more humble. And my arm is fresh."

Hitchcock: A Closer Look

Hitchcock, who turns 33 just after the season begins, has spent parts of the past 12 seasons in the big leagues. He came up through the Yankees’ organization, where he enjoyed some success before moving to Seattle for a year. Hitchcock then came to San Diego before the 1997 season, in a straight-up deal (which I hated at the time) for Scott Sanders. The left-hander donned a Padre uni for four seasons and change, the last two of which were abbreviated due to elbow reconstruction surgery.

Hitchcock has pitched enough innings in a season to qualify for the ERA title just five times in his career, from 1995 to 1999. Here is how he did during those years:

Yr Age  Tm    IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA ERA+
95  24 NYA 168.1 155 22 68 121 4.70  97
96  25 Sea 196.2 245 27 73 132 5.35  92
97  26  SD 161.0 172 24 55 106 5.20  74
98  27  SD 176.1 169 29 48 158 3.93  97
99  28  SD 205.2 202 29 76 194 4.11 107

How many out there remembered he struck out 194 batters in his last healthy season? It’s an interesting progression. In Hitchcock’s first full season in the bigs, at age 24, he was basically a league average pitcher. Then he bounced around a couple of years and tried to get comfortable again. And once he did, he re-established that level of performance and started to improve on it.

Don’t get me wrong, that was four years and major surgery ago, but it’s worth noting that Hitchcock was showing signs of busting out before he got hurt. At age 33 and with a lot of rust on the left arm, he can’t be expected to just pick up where he left off and become the pitcher it looked like he was becoming. But Hitchcock is a known quantity, and as he points out, his arm is fresh (if a little rusty).

For kicks, here are his last four seasons combined:

   IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA
263.0 306 36 94 203 5.13

For further kicks, here are how his five healthy seasons compare with his four injury-marred seasons (numbers pro-rated to 200 innings for easier comparison):

         IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA
healthy 200 208 29 70 157 4.65
injured 200 233 27 71 154 5.13

  H/9  HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 BB/SO
  9.35 1.30 3.17 7.05  2.22
 10.47 1.23 3.22 6.95  2.16

Hitchcock has been easier to hit since his peak years, and his ERA has spiked about a half a run. But look at the other ratios. Despite the injuries and advancing age, he’s actually managed to maintain them pretty well. Again (and I can’t say this enough), it’s unreasonable to expect him to carry the rotation. But he sure looks like a good gamble at the back end to me.

I’m out of time. We’ll take a closer look at Valdes tomorrow or Monday.

More Pitching Help on the Way?

by Geoff Young on Dec 17, 2003 (Comments Off) Comments

I had the pleasure of meeting John from Twins Geek last night for dinner. He and one of his readers (whom I know in a completely different circle; I’m always amazed when that sort of thing happens in a city the size of San Diego) invited me out for an excellent steak dinner and some good baseball talk. They’ve convinced me that Jacque Jones would be a solid addition to the Pads, but my idea of what he should cost is a lot different from that of what the Twins evidently think he should cost. Personally, I’d offer up something like Jay Witasick and their choice of Ben Howard or Dennis Tankersley.

Speaking of outfielders, did you notice how quickly Monday’s piece became obsolete? Carl Everett signed with the Expos (2 years, $7.5M), Reggie Sanders signed with the Cards (2 years, $6M), Shannon Stewart re-signed with Minnesota (3 years, $18M; this actually happened back on Dec. 9 but I missed it back then–I still think my analysis was pretty good, if not timely), Jose Cruz signed with Tampa Bay (2 years, $6M), and Jose Guillen is on the verge of inking a deal with the Angels (allegedly for, you guessed it: 2 years, $6M).

So now that we’ve repeatedly and convincingly demonstrated that the Pads most likely are not continuing in their pursuit of a center fielder at this time, let’s turn our attention to the rotation. This can be divided into roughly two categories: the big three up front, and the big mess at the back end.

Once past Brian Lawrence, Adam Eaton, and Jake Peavy, there could be some serious competition for those final two slots. And that’s assuming the Padres don’t make a play for Greg Maddux, potential free agent Freddy Garcia, or one of the other higher profile guys (Kevin Millwood, Sidney Ponson, etc.).

The newest entrant into the fray (NC Times) reportedly will be former Dodger Ismael Valdes (U-T). Probably the best thing that can be said of Valdes at this point is that his peak was better than Francisco Cordova’s. Actually, Valdes was reasonably effective with Texas in 2002. There are worse guys to gamble on (e.g., Cordova) and he’s not costing much (supposedly 1 year at $750k) so I guess it’s not too bad. We’ll look more closely at Valdes if and when the signing is made official.

Meantime, for those scoring at home, here are the current contestants in "Back End of the Padres Rotation" (alphabetical order): Sterling Hitchcock, Ben Howard, Kevin Jarvis, Dennis Tankersley, Ismael Valdes. Although Hitchcock and Valdes technically aren’t under contract with the Pads as of this writing, the early money is on Hitchcock. He’s a veteran, he has previous experience with the ballclub, and he’s a lefty.

Speaking of Jarvis, what the heck is this team going to do with his contract? If they can’t unload him before the season starts, they almost have to pitch him so other teams can see that he’s worth acquiring. Then there’s always the danger that he won’t pitch well enough to have trade value. Or that he’ll pitch just well enough to be taken off the market. Ugh.

If they’re not dealt, Howard and Tankersley can start the season at Triple-A, ready if needed by the Padres or another big-league club. Don’t see a lot of openings in the bullpen either. The one remaining hole there (second lefty) may be filled shortly by Mexican hurler Edgar Huerta, whom Kevin Towers compares to Oliver Perez in terms of stuff.

It’s a nice situation to see the Padres in. With eight or nine (depending on whether Witasick is traded) of the spots on the staff pretty well written in stone, there should be some pretty stiff competition for those remaining two or three openings.

Other News

Couple items of note from Baseball America:

  • Pirates, Indians Each Lose Five In Rule 5 Josh Boyd offers his analysis of the Rule 5 draft, including a report on right-hander Jason Szuminski, selected by the Royals from the Cubs’ organization and dealt to the Pads.
  • Top 10 Prospects: Complete Index This is more of a heads-up. The Padres’ list isn’t up yet, but is scheduled for release this Friday (Dec. 19). Generally BA does a chat that same afternoon with the person who compiled the list, so you may want to be on the lookout for that.

Oh Center Fielder, Where Art Thou?

by Geoff Young on Dec 15, 2003 (Comments Off) Comments

With Mike Cameron now a member of the Mets and Kenny Lofton angling toward the other New York team, maybe it’s time to consider some other options. Supposedly with Cameron and Lofton off the market, Kevin Towers is now focusing his attention on the rotation. But I hold out some hope that the current outfield configuration isn’t the one that will be backing that rotation.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the current free agents on the market who have experience playing center field. They’ve been grouped according to what "type" of free agent they are. As a useful reference, here are the Elias Sports Bureau rankings used to determine which draft pick(s) the signing team has to cough up as compensation to the team that is losing the player.

For a pretty exhaustive piece on how compensation works, see the Baseball America FAQ. For our purposes, because the Padres pick in the first half of the first round, all Type A and Type B free agents listed here would cost the club a second-round pick, assuming the player’s current team has offered them arbitration.

Type A

Carl Everett

Everett, who hit .287/.366/.510 last year splitting time between the ChiSox and Rangers, turns 33 in June. He played 81 games in center field, mostly as a member of the Sox. His range factor at that position was 2.52 (vs 2.78 for the entire AL). Everett earned just over $9M in 2003. In each of the two previous seasons he posted a park-adjusted OPS that was below league average. Everett also has a somewhat less than stellar reputation in the clubhouse and with the media.

Bottom line: Pretty good offensive player. Probably not worth the cost or trouble. On the other hand, other guys with bad reps have come here and thrived. If the Pads could get him to take a one-year deal for about half what he made last year, then maybe. But I wouldn’t count on that happening.

Reggie Sanders

Sanders is 36 years old and hasn’t played center field at all since 2000, and not regularly since 1998. He hit .285/.345/.567 last year with Pittsburgh and has been an above-average offensive performer each of the past three seasons (and in all but twp of his twelve big-league campaigns). The downside is that, due to injuries, Sanders has accumulated more than 500 at-bats in only one of those twelve seasons. He was a bargain for the Bucs in 2003, who paid him $1M to hit 31 homers.

Bottom line: Good hitter when healthy. Well received in his one year (1999) with the Padres. He’s due a salary increase and he realistically can’t be expected to patrol center field with any kind of regularity. Sanders will again be a good signing for someone, but it won’t be the Pads.

Shannon Stewart

Stewart turns 30 in February and has been a remarkably consistent performer throughout his big-league career. He’s been roughly at or slightly above league average offensively in each of his six full seasons. Stewart has gaps power, draws the occasional walk, and runs well. Like Sanders, he hasn’t played center field regularly since 1998, with his last appearance there coming in 2000. Stewart earned $6.2M in 2003 and may fetch more next year thanks to the surreal MVP talk surrounding him after his acquisition by the Twins last summer.

Bottom line: He’s played center field, but he isn’t a center fielder. His high batting averages (over .300 every year since 1999) and last summer’s hype mean Stewart won’t come cheaply. Will be useful, if overpaid for his actual contribution, but isn’t a good fit for the Padres.

Type B

Jose Cruz Jr.

Like Stewart, Cruz will play 2004 as a 30-year-old. Also like Stewart, he generally is right around or slightly above league average in terms of offensive production. The big difference is that while Stewart relies primarily on batting average, Cruz has managed to crack .260 just once in seven seasons and is more dependent on his secondary skills. But even those are inconsistent from year to year. Sometimes he’s a serious power hitter with an aggressive approach (2001), sometimes more of a gaps guy who gets on base (2003). Last year he hit .250/.366/.414 with the Giants, who paid him $2.5M for his services. Cruz played just three games in center last year and hasn’t played there regularly since 2001.

Bottom line: Failing Cameron or Lofton, this is the one guy I wouldn’t have minded seeing the Padres nab. He’s got some on base skills, he can hit the ball out of the park on occasion, and he relatively inexpensive for what he does. Cruz reportedly has signed a 2-year, $6M deal with Tampa Bay. Good signing for the Devil Rays.

Jose Guillen

Guillen is just entering his physical prime, turning 28 this May. Last year was a breakout season for the talented outfielder, as he finished at .311/.359/.569 while splitting time between Cincinnati and Oakland. The downside is that this marked the first time Guillen had ever posted a better-than-league-average OPS in seven seasons (in fact, it was the first time his OPS+ had cracked 90). That’s not real good for a corner outfielder, which brings us to the next issue: Guillen has played exactly 14 games in center field in his big-league career.

Bottom line: Guillen isn’t a center fielder. His track record is spotty, at best. He still is too aggressive at the plate (his 24 walks this season are a single-season high). Guillen was a real find for the Reds in 2003, and he could well be useful to a team this coming season, either as a starting right fielder or a bat off the bench. But Guillen is unlikely to perform as well as he did last year, and whoever ends up signing him may well overpay based on his .311 batting average and 31 homers in 2003. He is not a good fit for the Padres.

Uncompensated

I won’t bother analyzing these guys, because they’re just not all that interesting. Here are the names: Marvin Benard, Tom Goodwin, and Orlando Palmeiro. Benard and Palmeiro have some on-base skills and could be of use off the bench. Goodwin is very fast. The Padres don’t need guys like these, and the fact that this is all that’s left on the market leads me to believe Kevin Towers’ assertion that pitching is now the priority. Maybe a trade for Minnesota’s Jacque Jones will happen later this winter, but for now it looks like the Padres are content to go with Ryan Klesko in left, Brian Giles in center, and Xavier Nady in right.

Other News

More on Aki Otsuka

General Winter Meetings

It’s been a pretty exciting winter so far for Padre fans. Here’s hoping there’s more in store…

Konichiwa, Akinori-san

by Geoff Young on Dec 10, 2003 (Comments Off) Comments

Now that the signing of right-hander Akinori Ohtsuka appears to be imminent, it’s probably a good time to take a closer look at the soon-to-be-former Chunichi Dragon. I don’t know how well stats compiled on the other side of the Pacific translate into MLB equivalents, but bearing in mind that the man makes the stats and not vice versa, let’s see how Ohtsuka stacks up against the most recent Japanese reliever to come to North America, Kazuhiro Sasaki:

           IP   H HR  BB  SO  ERA
Ohtsuka 350.2 237 26 117 474 2.39
Sasaki  599.0 373 53 225 828 2.31

  H/9 HR/9 BB/9  SO/9 SO/BB
 6.08 0.67 3.00 12.17  4.05
 5.60 0.80 3.38 12.44  3.68

Both were very tough to hit, both have ridiculous strikeout numbers. Sasaki had more years and innings under his belt when he made the move. Again, statistics don’t tell the whole story, but it’s hard not to get a little excited about a guy who compares so favorably to a quality reliever such as Sasaki. If Ohtsuka can make the transition anywhere near as well, the Padres will have themselves one heckuva reliver (and a very nice bullpen).

I can’t find a whole lot on Ohtsuka in terms of scouting reports. Guess we’ll just have to wait and see. Meantime, Japanese Baseball observer Jim Albright gives his opinion on the reliever and other actual or possible transplants.

And over at Primer, Dan Symborski’s ZiPS projects the following line out of Ohtsuka: 44 IP, 40 H, 7 HR, 9 BB, 44 SO, 3.89 ERA. Not bad, but I think we’re all hoping for better than that.

Speaking of ZiPS, it’s a bit premature but what the heck. Here’s what the current Padre team is looking like right now:

Lineup

  1. Burroughs 3b, .303/.368/.422
  2. Loretta 2b, .305/.369/.422
  3. Giles cf, .281/.418/.527
  4. Nevin 1b, .283/.358/.490
  5. Klesko lf, .271/.375/.499
  6. Nady rf, .272/.337/.421
  7. Hernandez c, .265/.335/.423
  8. Greene ss, .269/.322/.405

If Petco plays like I think it will, that projection for Klesko is low. Not sure Greene will be able to crack a 700 OPS as a rookie, either. If he comes close to his ZiPS, I’ll be pretty darned happy. Also, there’s a good chance that one of these guys will end up in center, moving Giles back to left and Nady to the bench, Triple-A, or another team:

  • Mike Cameron, .250/.350/.436
  • Kenny Lofton, .258/.335/.407

The Boss is said to be pursuing Lofton. Neither of these guys was offered arbitration, so no draft picks will be forfeited if they’re signed. If Lofton comes to San Diego, he’ll lead off and move Burroughs to the #6 or #7 spot. If it’s Cameron, the guess here is that he’ll move into Nady’s place in the order. Cameron is younger and plays better defense, but he’s also going to be more expensive.

Bench

  • Ojeda c, .232/.327/.359
  • Hansen inf, .238/.353/.338
  • Vazquez inf, .276/.363/.362
  • Buchanan of, .261/.336/.436
  • Long of, .258/.316/.394

I don’t know how warm the Long and Jarvis for Roger Cedeno rumors are these days, but that possibility has been mentioned on more than one occasion this winter, so I’ll include Cedeno’s projection here as well as that of former Houston farmhand (and college teammate of Khalil Greene and Michael Johnson) Henri Stanley:

  • Cedeno, .273/.330/.373
  • Stanley, .286/.373/.438

Rotation

  1. Lawrence, 3.97 ERA, 5.9 SO/9
  2. Eaton, 4.14, 7.9
  3. Peavy, 4.29, 8.5
  4. Jarvis, 5.10, 5.8
  5. Howard, 5.47, 5.5

Eaton and Peavy are capable of big jumps. Jarvis will be in the rotation only if they can’t dump his contract. Howard remains terrific trade bait but if he isn’t moved, he’ll probably start the year at Portland and be ready, along with Dennis Tankersley, if needed.

David Wells is going back to the Yankees, which leaves Greg Maddux and, gulp, Chuck Finley as the big names potentially joining the rotation.

  • Maddux, 3.62, 5.8
  • Tankersley, 4.59, 8.4

I can think of worse things than sticking Maddux at the front of that rotation, moving Jarvis and his salary, and letting Howard and Tankersley battle for the fifth spot. Erik Hiljus and Rueben Quevedo are still on the market, I believe. Not that anyone’s talking about them, but they strike me as the kind of guys the Pads should be considering.

Bullpen

I don’t mean it as a backhanded compliment (although it is one) when I say that this will be much improved in 2004. The Padres now have a very legit (and comparatively inexpensive) bullpen. With Rod Beck and Ohtsuka in the fold, the entire corps is pretty well set, except for the possible addition of a second lefty.

  1. Hoffman, 9th inning, 3.27, 10.0
  2. Beck, 8th, 4.50, 8.0
  3. Ohtuska, 6th and 7th, 3.89, 9.0
  4. Witasick, 6th and 7th, 3.55, 9.8
  5. Linebrink, long man, 4.08, 7.2
  6. Walker, lefty, 4.29, 7.7

Projections appear to underestimate Beck and give Witasick too much credit. I know it’s mid-December and there are moves yet to be made, but I’m getting pretty psyched at the way this team is starting to come together. The Pads may not be quite ready to contend, but I think they’re going to make some noise this year. A veteran at the top of the rotation and a legit center fielder would do a world of good for this club and organization. Maddux and Lofton won’t be outrageously expensive and they won’t cost draft picks. I’d love to see Cameron in San Diego, but the more I think about it, the more I’m warming to Lofton. He should come cheaper and leave the Pads with more money to go out and get a pitcher or two.

Other Voices

We’ll keep our eyes on the various situations. Should be interesting to see how it all plays itself out…

Bullpen Action and Other Off-Season Rumblings

by Geoff Young on Dec 08, 2003 (Comments Off) Comments

Quickly this morning. Padres continue to make moves this off-season, re-signing last year’s interim closer and bullpen savior Rod Beck. He’ll work the eighth inning this year, setting up Trevor Hoffman.

Also, Japanese reliever Akinori Otsuka is close to signing. Once he’s in the fold, the Pads are rumored to be looking to add a second left-hander to join Kevin Walker in the bullpen. Top candidates include Mark Guthrie, Steve Kline, and Ricardo Rincon. I’m hoping it’s Rincon but only because I think it would be amusing to have him and Brian Giles (for whom he once was traded straight-up) on the same team.

Finally, the Padres are searching for a true center fielder. Kenny Lofton appears to be the front-runner right now, but I’m holding out hope for Mike Cameron (who was not offered arbitration by the Mariners and won’t cost any picks). If Lofton signs, word is he’ll lead off and Sean Burroughs will drop to sixth or seventh in the order. Of course, if the Pads do bring in a center fielder, Xavier Nady goes back to the bench. On the good side, pitchers would be able serve up the occasional fly ball without trepidation.

I leave you now with a little reading material:

Mailbag

by Geoff Young on Dec 01, 2003 (Comments Off) Comments

Hope y’all had a great Thanksgiving! We went out to a killer buffet at this place called the 94th Aero Squadron. Sat out on the patio, watched the planes take off from and land at Montgomery Field. Very relaxing, very filling.

So the long-awaited trade with the A’s finally happened. Was that like pulling teeth, or what? No matter, the Pads finally have a legit catcher. Now it’s time to start working on the bullpen. Rod Beck is still a possibility, as is Japanese reliever Akinori Otsuka: Padres Look To Sign Otsuka (Baseball America).

Meantime, Terrence Long is rumored to be nearing the end of his brief tenure as a Padre. The latest has him going to the Mets along with Kevin Jarvis for Roger Cedeno, the theory being that one bad contract is better than two. That’s gotta make you feel pretty good if you’re involved in a trade that is made for the sole purpose of exchanging players that nobody really wants.

What else. Gary Matthews Jr. was claimed on waivers by the Braves, which makes the Eugene Kingsale signing look good, or at least palatable. Kingsale and Matthews are roughly exchangeable parts, and generally you want the one that costs less either in terms of money or roster space. Right now that is Kingsale.

Geek moment. I just discovered Crimson Editor, which is what I’m using to compose today’s blog entry. It color codes stuff, gives line numbers, and generally rocks. Adios, Notepad. Anyway, if you’re looking for a good, free text editor, you could do a lot worse.

But enough about that. Mail has been piling up, so now would be a good time to respond to letters.

First up, in response to my somewhat dismissive analysis of the Billy Wagner trade, Howard Lynch writes:

[In the Nov. 4 entry, you said:] “I don’t think the Astros got enough for a pitcher of Wagner’s caliber.”

That strikes me as “old school” thinking … a great player paid a great salary will not bring much in trade … because good/young/underpaid players are more “valuable.” Why is Manny Ramirez available? Probably for “nothing” in trade (isn’t that what it meant when he was waived?)

Also, if you really think the Astros didn’t get enough, then you’re also slamming all the other teams (including the Padres) for not offering more than the Phillies. OK, maybe not the Padres, if they are committed to Trevor … but each team that has a “closer” already (which presumably includes the Astros since they were willing to part with Wagner) reduces the demand and therefore value of Wagner.

Finally, do you think Phillies could have got ARod for the guys they gave up for Wagner? You bet! ARod is available … but he’s not valuable … because he’s overpaid.

Just wanted to let you know I/we are still out here :-)

Thanks, Howard, for writing. So, is there one of you or is it a plurality?

But seriously, you’re dead on here. I didn’t provide much of an analysis of the trade, frankly because I didn’t know enough about the pitchers coming to Houston. I’m not a big fan of Brandon Duckworth, but I’ve since learned that Taylor Buccholz is quite highly regarded (Baseball America has just rated him the Astros’ #1 prospect).

There are really two points I want to make. One is that my initial "analysis" was very off-the-cuff and not carefully considered. It was a gut reaction. And now that I have more information, I think the Astros actually did okay from a talent standpoint.

The other point has to do with the larger issue that Howard raises. Evaluating trades solely on the basis of talent exchanged is very much "old school" and isn’t practical in the current environment. I have to say, I hate that. But it is what it is, and I don’t see it changing anytime soon.

So, back to Wagner, I think that both the Astros and the Phillies accomplished what they hoped to with this trade. The Astros shed themselves of significant salary at a position where they are relatively deep (Octavio Dotel, Brad Lidge, etc.) and brought in some good young arms. And the Phils addressed their single greatest deficiency (well, on the field anyway) without making a real dent in their 2004 squad.

As for A-Rod’s contract, that’s a different animal. He may well be overpaid, but the fact remains that someone was willing to pay him that amount of money. I do find it more than a little ironic that now that he’s finally won the MVP award, he is essentially untradeable. If that isn’t a sign that something is seriously wrong with the economics of Major League Baseball, then I don’t know what is. How these owners can continue to spend irresponsibly and then cry about salaries is beyond me.

Next up, Jason Christopherson asks:

I have a question for you. I’m 32 years old and have been playing or watching baseball since I was 4. Never in those 28 years have I ever, EVER heard the term “ducksnort”. The word needs a boost. I plan on putting it in my daily lexicon. But I need to know what it is. Can I assume a little weak line drive or grounder that somehow finds its way to the outfield? Help me out. Ducksnort deserves more publicity.

Jason, you’re on the right track. The name “Ducksnorts” refers to a bloop base hit and is one of my favorite baseball-related phrases. I first heard it used by Ken Harrelson and Tom Paciorek on WGN several years ago, and I know that Mark Grant occassionally drops it into Padre telecasts.

If you’re serious about putting it in your daily lexicon, I’m sure there are ways the phrase could be applied to non-baseball aspects of life. A lot of sports metaphors have found their way into other areas, why not "ducksnort"? It could be used as a substitute, perhaps, for "it’s better to be lucky than good" or even "right place, right time."

For example, about George W. Bush’s victory over Al Gore in the presidential race (not the most topical example, but bear with me), we might have the following exchange:

Joe: Did you hear, Bush won the election?
Steve: Yeah, but it wasn’t exactly a landslide.
Joe: No kidding. In fact, he was lucky to win at all.
Steve: Totally. But sometimes you only need a ducksnort.
Joe: No doubt.

I’m sure you can think of other ways to use this excellent word in all kinds of situations, including business, food preparation, dating, and much more. Thanks for writing, Jason, and get the word out on the street. You don’t have to tell the whole world, but a ducksnort here and there couldn’t hurt (hey, there’s another possible usage–an idea that you pop into people’s heads intermittently; a catch phrase, a slogan, or a commercial jingle could be a ducksnort).

Finally, E.B. chimes in with this gem:

I just found your site through Baseball Primer and was very happy to find it. After being an intern for Channel 4 last summer, my interest in the Padres has grown exponentially (I’m from San Francisco so I’m a Giants fan). Watching almost every home game since late April, I’ve learned a lot about this team and come across a lot of stupid and useless stats. One of them is this. This is the difference between a team’s qualified catcher’s ERA and the team’s actual ERA.

Positive Effect
1) Gary Bennett    -1.03
2) Greg Myers      -0.46
3) Paul LoDuca     -0.43
4) Brent Mayne     -0.36
5) Miguel Oliva    -0.36
6) A.J. Piezynski  -0.26
6) Brian Schneider -0.26

Negative Effect
1) Eddie Perez     +0.33
2) Vance Wilson    +0.24
3) Josh Bard       +0.12
4) Jorge Posada    +0.10
5) Toby Hall       +0.06

This probably speaks to the incompetence of the other catchers. Also the games played varies from catcher to catcher but still. Thought I’d pass it on even though Bennett’s an out machine and gone.

Wow, thanks E.B. We love stupid stats, but we really love stupid and useless stats. Seriously, I knew the Pads had a much better ERA with Bennett behind the dish but I wasn’t sure the exact number. As for competence of Padre catchers, I dunno. But I do know that Bennett didn’t routinely drop strikes nor did he forget how many outs there were. As much as it pained me to watch the guy flail at 2-0 pitches out of the zone, I think he does have something to offer a ballclub, especially if that team is smart enough and in the position to limit him to 120-150 at-bats in a season.

Speaking of Bennett, I’d like to thank the Astros for re-signing Brad Ausmus and closing that door for the Padres while the A’s deal was in limbo. Nothing against Ausmus, but as with Kingsale vs Matthews, you take the cheaper guy. That would have been Bennett.

Next time we’ll look at the Curt Schilling trade and how it impacts the Padres.

Kotsay for Hernandez

by Geoff Young on Nov 19, 2003 (0) Comments

Hadn’t planned to be away from the blog for so long this time. I started to scratch something together the other day when the Giants went out and picked up A.J. Pierzynski, because I figured that move might impact the Padres. And it did.

When last we met, I mentioned that I expected Kevin Towers to grab one of Pierzynski or Ramon Hernandez to be his catcher in 2004. When the Twins-Giants trade went down, I suspected it was only a matter of time before the rumored Hernandez for Mark Kotsay deal would happen.

Now that it (apparently) has happened, what do I think of the trade? That’s a complex question. I’ll start by saying that I think the Twins did a terrific job of getting value of Pierzynski and that I wouldn’t have wanted to see my team give up a package like the Giants did to acquire a good but not great catcher. Word is the Twins wanted Jake Peavy from the Padres. Viewed in that context, I love the deal with Oakland. Kotsay is a good player if healthy (a big if) but he’s not a guy, like Peavy, around whom you build a ballclub.

This trade interests me for several reasons:

  1. It was made between two “small-market” teams with GMs who know each other very well and who respect one another.
  2. Both teams filled enormous holes in their lineups without leaving themselves exceptionally weak anywhere and without significantly impacting their payroll.
  3. And probably the most fascinating aspect to me is that this is a deal involving three players who are essentially in their primes. All three were born within six months of one another, all have shown flashes of potential, all are likely about as good as they’re going to get, and yet it’s quite possible that at least one of them still has a “breakout year” or three in them.

I’ve been a big fan of Kotsay since he arrived in San Diego (although not as big a fan as my wife, who called me at work yesterday to ask if the rumors were true) and often thought he could have a career path similar to that of Steve Finley, who turned out to be a much more productive player in his 30s than he was in his 20s. Back injuries have a way of changing things, though, and I’m no longer as certain about Kotsay as I once was. That said, I think he’s a pretty good bet at least to return to pre-2003 levels (.290/.360/.450).

I am sorry to see Kotsay go. He’s been a class act all the way, and when healthy he’s produced. He gets on base a little, drives the ball into the gaps, plays a solid center field, and generally carries himself on the field and off it the way you’d like to see all your players do. He also is a pretty heady baserunner, which the A’s should appreciate.

As for the guys coming to San Diego, I don’t know a lot about either of them. Hernandez has the reputation of being a decent defender and last year finally showed something with the stick. Was this a one-year aberration, or is he just now coming into his own at the plate? Catchers often develop their hitting skills relatively late, and Hernandez is entering what should be his prime, so there’s cause for cautious optimism here.

If Hernandez can come anywhere near his .273/.331/.458 performance of a year ago and catch 135+ games (as he has each of the past four seasons), this will work out real well for the Pads. If he moves back toward his career numbers of .253/.322/.400 then that’s not as exciting, unless of course you’re judging him against recent Padre catchers.

Hernandez has some pop, in the same sense that Kotsay does. Not a lot of homers, but a fair amount of doubles. He doesn’t walk a ton, which couldn’t have helped his cause in Oakland, where that particular skill is valued more than almost anyplace else. Looking at Hernandez’ age 27 comps at B-R, I’m struck by the names of three catchers that I remember watching play: Charles Johnson, Joe Oliver, and Jody Davis.

Johnson walked and struck out a lot more than Hernandez does. At age 28, coming off a .251/.340/.413 season, Johnson hit a barely believable .304/.379/.582. Oliver’s numbers are pretty close to Hernandez’ through their first four years in the big leagues, but Oliver never spiked like Hernandez did in 2003; Oliver missed all but six games of his age 28 season. Davis was a better hitter than Hernandez at this point in their respective careers, but as it turned out, the former Cubs’ backstop was already on the downswing by age 27. The following year saw him hit .232/.300/.400 following a .256/.315/.421 showing the previous season.

A leap of Johnsonian proportions seems pretty far-fetched for 2004. A leveling off or slight decline seems more likely, given his age, his demanding defensive position, and the fact that he’ll be working with a new pitching staff. I’m looking for something like .260/.320/.430. Not great, but a fair shake better than what’s been coming out of that position since at least the first half of 2001, when Ben Davis looked like he’d arrived.

Which leaves us with Terrence Long. I admit, I have no idea what to make of this guy. He had two decent years in Oakland, followed by two substandard years. Check this out:

  ISO XB/H BB/K BB/PA
 .164 .333 .558  .069
 .129 .298 .505  .076
 .150 .369 .500  .082
 .140 .319 .463  .064

Is it immediately obvious from this which were the decent years and which the substandard? Those actually look pretty consistent to me. Now look at this:

  BA
.288
.283
.240
.245

Long is pretty much your textbook version of the guy who needs to hit .280 to be of value. But what is the difference between a .240 hitter and a .280 hitter? Over 500 at-bats, the former collects 120 hits while the latter has 140. Twenty hits in a season. A hit a week.

That’s an oversimplification, but I think you get the point. A few more hits fall and Long is a marginally useful hitter. I’m not saying it’s great or even very good, but with a few breaks, the guy isn’t a total black hole. By most accounts Long is a terrific athlete whose baseball skills aren’t on par with his ability. He’s also a guy (like Hernandez) who didn’t fit in real well with Oakland’s system and had pretty clearly worn out his welcome there.

Yeah, Long is a Padre because Kotsay is more expensive than Hernandez. But who’s to say a change of scenery won’t do him some good? And before you flame me on that one, I’m not saying he’ll totally bust out and become Bobby Abreu. But he has had at least some success in the past. He has gaps power and is moving to a park that is expected to favor left-handed hitters. Is it out of the question to think that he might return to pre-2002 form and hit .280/.330/.430? Or that he might even be one of those guys whose light suddenly turns on and he hits maybe a little better than that?

I’m really trying to temper my enthusiasm as much as possible with Long, because the fact is his record is very spotty. Make no mistake, he’s a significant downgrade from Kotsay offensively (and apparently his defense isn’t all that hot either) and there’s a decent chance he’ll be riding pine before too long. There probably isn’t anything here that we haven’t already seen out of Long. But there might be.

Of course, that in itself is a double-edged sword. His athletic ability and "potential" might get him more looks than he deserves (see Kingsale, Eugene). It also might keep Xavier Nady from playing every day. Then again, who knows what the outfield is going to look like in 2004. Right now it’s Ryan Klesko in left, Brian Giles in center, and some combination of Nady and Long in right. From a defensive standpoint, I’m not at all convinced that’s going to work.

Pure, unadulterated speculation on my part: Nevin or Nady moves in a package for a legit center fielder. Don’t ask me for names, I haven’t read all the tea leaves yet. I just keep looking at this outfield configuration and can’t shake the feeling that something must change. Again, I’m not working on anything other than my own intuition, but I don’t see this happening come Opening Day.

My overall feeling with the trade is that it should help both clubs, although not in a way that promises to excite fans a great deal. The Padres go from a black hole behind the plate to slightly above average at that position, while the A’s take baby steps in attempting to upgrade their outfield. If Kotsay is fully healthy and returns to pre-2003 levels, then Oakland should be very happy. If Hernandez repeats what he did last year and proves it wasn’t a fluke, then the Pads will be happy.

Long is the wildcard. And there is always the possibility (probability?) of further maneuvering. One thing is for sure: If the outfield remains as it is, the Padre staff would do well to pick Brian Lawrence’s brain on the art of inducing an obscene number of ground balls.

What Others Are Saying about the Trade

Least Surprising News of the Off-Season

by Geoff Young on Nov 06, 2003 (0) Comments

Sorry ’bout yesterday. Sometimes that happens. On the bright side, it did inspire some of you to write. I guess that whole Spam thing did come off as kind of a cry for help, didn’t it? Anyway, I’m okay.

The Padres re-upped Trevor Hoffman. After pulling in $9M for 2003, Hoffman is guaranteed $2.5M for 2004. Incentives could push that up to $3M and kick in a player option for as much as $6M in 2005. It goes without saying that this is a great move for the Pads. Not only do they keep the heart and soul of the club, but they also free up some money to go out and sign an impact player or two.

If the Pads can somehow bring back Rod Beck as a setup man, they may well have the craftiest one-two combo in all of baseball. Of course, Beck is approaching 300 saves and, as he proved this season, still has what it takes to close games. He also won the Players Choice NL Comeback Player of the Year Award, which can’t make him any less expensive.

Also the new Padre uniforms will be unveiled today. I think you’ll like them.

Speaking of Free Agents

Over at Primer, the 3rd Annual Free Agent Prediction Contest is taking place. Some interesting players predicted to come to San Diego.

The Obvious

  • David Wells, lhp. Natch. He’s old, he’s from the area. What better way to finish a career than with the hometown club.
  • Greg Maddux, rhp. Only because everyone’s been talking about him since before the 2003 season. He isn’t the dominator he once was but still is better than most and would be a positive influence on the young pitchers.
  • Benito Santiago, c. Started his career here, probably won’t be real expensive. He turns 39 in March. Whoever signs him will need a backup who can catch 50-60 games.

The Possible

  • Tim Worrell, rhp. You don’t hear his name mentioned a lot in these parts, but he did start his career here. Those 38 saves last year push his price tag up. Very solid.
  • Kevin Millwood, rhp. Another who doesn’t get a lot of play here. Had one great year (1999), one good year (2002), and a whole lot of average years with tons of innings. There is value in that, and if he’s paid for what he is rather than for those two glimpses of something better, he could be a good acquisition.

The Doubtful

  • Javy Lopez, c. Makes sense from a needs standpoint, but Lopez is coming off a monster year and probably doesn’t have a lot of mileage left behind the plate. He’ll command too much money and sign elsewhere.
  • Rod Beck, rhp. They gave him a second chance, but with Hoffman back in the fold, Beck will need to go elsewhere for his 300th save.
  • Yobal Dueñas, 2b. One of the latest Cuban defectors. Middle infield isn’t a huge position of need for the Pads, and if they do decide to make a play for one, my guess is it will be Miguel Tejada or Kaz Matsui. But I don’t think they’re coming here, either.
  • Miguel Tejada, ss. Star talent will be overpaid because of two three-letter acronyms: RBI and MVP.
  • Gary Sheffield, of. Outfield isn’t a position of need, but Sheffield is a guy you make an exception for if the opportunity presents itself. Had a great tour of duty here in the early-’90s, but I’d be surprised if he returns.
  • Ivan Rodriguez, c. He’s younger and he didn’t have a monster season, but essentially the Lopez comment applies here.
  • Kaz Matsui, ss. Rapid progress of Khalil Greene has made this less of a priority. Matsui is a more likely possibility than Tejada, IMHO.

The Bizarre

  • Jeromy Burnitz, of. Unless Kevin Towers decides to move Mark Kotsay for catching help and shift Brian Giles to center, I don’t see the Pads looking at outfielders.
  • Jose Cruz Jr., of. Younger and more athletic than Burnitz. Still don’t see it happening.
  • Robin Ventura, 3b. No threat to Sean Burroughs or Phil Nevin on the corners. More expensive than Dave Hansen, Brian Buchanan, Todd Sears, or any of a plethora of other bench options. No way.
  • Brian Jordan, of. So he can’t knock Gary Bennett out of action? To shore up the Chargers’ secondary? I don’t get this one at all.
  • Raul Ibanez, of. Caught at least part of a game for the Mariners in 1999. Not a bad hitter, but not a guy the Padres need. Pass.
  • Juan Gonzalez, of. Hilarious. I’ll shave my head if he signs with the Padres.

Me? I think at least one of Wells or Maddux ends up in San Diego. Santiago looks like a contingency plan at this point, with Towers hoping to land a Ramon Hernandez or A.J. Pierzynski type. Perhaps some bullpen help, but the exact names are anyone’s guess.

Sean Burroughs

We talk about him all the time, I know, but B-R has just added 2003 stats, which means a whole slew of new guys have similar players listed. Here’s one for Burroughs that I’m a little chagrined I hadn’t considered, Ryne Sandberg:

           AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI
Burroughs 517  62 148 27  6  7  58
Sandberg  635 103 172 33  5  7  54

          SB CS BB SO  BA   OBP  SLG OPS+
Burroughs  7  2 44 75 .286 .352 .402 105
Sandberg  32 12 36 90 .271 .312 .372  89

Age 22 season for each. Interesting, no?

Other Stuff

Well, I got kinda carried away there, so the mailbag will have to wait. Meantime, I leave you with this:

  • Ravel’s Bolero (NPR). There is a theory that the repetitive melody of Bolero is symptomatic of Alzheimer’s disease or some other mental deterioration. If that is the case, almost everyone writing popular music today must be quite ill. Or maybe they’re just making me ill.

Mustang Sally, Bolero, and Spam

by Geoff Young on Nov 05, 2003 (0) Comments

No baseball coverage today. Because I’m not in the mood, that’s why.

So I bought one of those little wallet-sized gadgets that you can put, like, 500 CDs worth of music on. It has rechargeable batteries and headphones. The idea is you can listen to pretty much anything you want, any time you want.

And while I’m sure it’s really good for that sort of thing, it also has a condenser mic so you can record stuff. I use it to document band rehearsals. The sound quality isn’t great, but it’s good enough to hear if you’re off key or changing tempos mid-song. Plus you can burn everything to CD after rehearsal and hand ‘em out to the guys so they can listen at home.

You hear what’s working well (hey, nice harmonies) and what could be improved (dude, what chord is that?). But my favorite thing is that it catches those mistakes that you can’t re-create on your own but which actually end up sounding pretty cool.

The other day we’re running through “Mustang Sally” (Buddy Guy’s version, more or less). We get to the solo, and I guess my mind is elsewhere, because I forget what key I’m supposed to play in. I mean, I have no idea what the root note is, what position I should be in. Nothing. (I should have had my ring finger on the 10th fret of the G string, bending up from an F# to a G for those keeping score at home.)

So I’m off in this weird place, and I start feeling my way around for some kind of melody. And I find something that works. It ain’t the blues, but it works. And I’m thinking it sounds familiar. Turns out, I’ve stumbled onto a phrase from Ravel‘s Bolero.

Meantime, between rehearsal and listening to the CDs I burned, I’ve forgotten about all this. As far as I’m concerned, all I know is I blew the solo. Which is okay in rehearsal, because if you’re going to blow a solo, that’s the place to do it. Not live, in front of people.

But then I’m listening to the CD, and I hear Bolero. And I’m laughing because, against all probability, it works. You can play the first dozen or so notes from Bolero in G major against a C7 / F7 progression, which is exactly what “Mustang Sally” is. It’s the damndest thing. Hey, I figure if Eric Clapton can play “Blue Moon” as the solo for “Sunshine of Your Love,” then why not throw Ravel into the blues, right?

Weird…

Mailbag: Special Spam Edition

I get a lot of spam. I mean, a lot of it. So since people I know aren’t writing me, I thought I’d take this opportunity to respond to some of these fine men and women.

First up, B.D. from Loserville writes:

Get your College Diploma today! No books, tests or interviews.. no classes either! No one is turned down.

Thanks for the offer. Sounds totally legit and something I’d really like to be a part of, but I’m going to pass.

J.L. chimes in from the Eighth Plane of Hell with this succinct message:

Take a valium.

To which I offer this equally succinct reply:

Go @#$% yourself. And when you’re done, you take a #@$#&&@ valium.

Next, C.P. from Idiot City, writes (well, he writes a novel, but I’ll just edit for brevity; ellipses denote missing text):

I am… the famous Revolutionary… buried here… I beg you… to put me into a foster home… called America… I will make no attempt to call you by land based telephone… I await your response.

I may have missed a few things, but that’s the gist of it. Something about Cuba, an inheritance, and my money. Yadda, yadda. Well, C.P., this may or may not help. But someone suggested it to me and it didn’t apply to my situation; maybe it’ll work for you:

Take a valium.

Finally, we get this compelling invitation from B.T.:

We can make your lips plumper.

Wow, that’s great. Just what I always wanted: plump lips. If I buy your product, will I look like I got stung by bees? I sure hope so; I haven’t figured out a way to get that look (without actually getting stung by bees, that is). Hey, can you make my bank account plumper, too? That’d be cool.