Junk Drawer

by Geoff Young on Jan 29, 2004 (Comments Off) Comments

Very little time, so just links to stuff today. Enjoy!

Baseball

Other

  • The Tyranny of Copyright? (NY Times). I’ve spent much of my professional career working in academic publishing. I’ve also done my share of self-publishing, writing, and generally putting together various creative works. The issue of copyright is often misunderstood, especially in this world of constantly evolving media. Finding the proper balance between granting an author control over his work and allowing ideas to flow freely among people is a never-ending battle that tends to generate more heat than light. I don’t know the answers, but I do know that anyone who produces, consumes, or otherwise is involved in information really should make an honest effort to learn as much about copyright as possible. This article leans a little more in favor of the consumer side than suits me (the somewhat condescending phrase "romantic myth of ‘the author’" rubs me the wrong way), but it’s possible that my assumptions about the nature of creation and authorship, and the relationship between producer and consumer, need adjusting. Either way, some good points are raised.
  • Mauritania’s ‘wife-fattening’ farm (BBC). We really do live on a weird planet.

Mailbag

by Geoff Young on Jan 26, 2004 (Comments Off) Comments

I don’t ordinarily like to start the week with a mailbag, but today’s letter is so passionate, it really can’t wait any longer. Regular reader Jeff #287 writes:

Real quick… well, I probably won’t be, but about [Rey] Ordonez. You say you’re not as upset as you feel maybe you should be. I think you really should be, I’m downright PO’d at the signing. What bothers me: KT said in the SDUT (in not so many words) that even if Khalil plays better than Ordonez, but at about the level of Vazquez, which is to be expected with a rookie competing for his first ST ever, Khalil goes to Portland. I am of the firm belief that Khalil’s play in September earned him the right to start at the MLB level this season. But that’s not the only thing; if we’d brought in some competition that had the opportunity to outplay Khalil, I’d be ok with this: still not like it, but be ok. Numbers: .258/.319/.317. That’s Ordonez’s career best full season. I see no reason to believe Khalil [won't] meet [this] (and crush that SLG%) with an average rookie campaign. And we’ve seen Bochy with Vazquez; if it’s Ordonez and Vazquez on the club, you know who’ll start.

So we’ve signed our starting day shortstop for the San Diego Padres 2004, in my eyes: and it’s Rey f’in Ordonez. Bochy will love his intangibles, and gritty play, and that stuff that doesn’t show up in stats, and Khalil will be robbed of his rookie season. IMHO, this signing is the worst thing to come of this offseason. We certainly can afford a weak bat and solid defensive shortstop with this lineup. It’s just a shame it won’t be Khalil Greene.

Passionate. We like passionate.

Jeff actually sent this in several days ago, and I’ve been thinking about it a great deal since then. Here’s my take. With the move into a new stadium, the Padres are no longer in "rebuild mode" and are gunning for short-term success or, failing that, the appearance that they at least tried to win this year.

Rightly or wrongly, bringing in Ordonez to compete for a starting job helps accomplish the latter. He is a name with a terrific defensive reputation. He’s signed to a minor-league deal so there’s not a lot of downside in that regard (other than taking time from Khalil Greene and Ramon Vazquez).

It’s pretty clear after last season that the Padres (again, rightly or wrongly) do not view Vazquez as a bona fide big-league shortstop. I’m of the opinion that they have been a little hasty in reaching that conclusion, but my opinion doesn’t count for much.

It’s also evident that Greene is viewed as the shortstop of the future. The only open question is when that future begins. I’m not certain that 65 at-bats is enough to say one way or another whether someone has earned the right to start at the MLB level, but I am comfortable saying that Greene has earned the right to compete for a starting job.

In my book, if Greene outplays the other two guys, he’s the starter. Vazquez backs up all over the infield and Ordonez starts at Portland, making a handy insurance policy. If, on the other hand, Greene scuffles this spring, what’s the rush? Whoever ends up at shortstop is going to bat in the #8 hole and make a lot of outs. Why not let Greene get a little more seasoning at Triple-A?

That’s if Greene struggles. If he doesn’t, then the future begins now. I’m not convinced that Ordonez as starter is a foregone conclusion. I believe that he’s been brought into compete for the job, nothing more. It’s possible I’m being naive here, but I expect the Padres think more highly of Greene than to reject the possibility of his starting for the big-league club before spring training has even begun.

This is why I don’t see a lot of downside. Either Greene wins the job in spring, in which case the "problem" is solved. Or he doesn’t, and the Pads have two other guys with big-league experience at shortstop (I would probably platoon the two, but this is yet another instance where my opinion doesn’t count for much). Meantime, Greene gets his at-bats at Portland and takes over the job next year, or possibly even later this summer.

I think the fact that the Padres weren’t players for guys like Rich Aurilia, Kaz Matsui, or Miguel Tejada speaks volumes about their opinion of Greene and how close to big-league ready he is. Ordonez is an insurance policy, and a cheap one at that.

As for what each player brings to the table offensively, I wouldn’t expect a whole lot from either. Ordonez showed unprecedented signs of life last year with the Devil Rays before getting hurt. It is possible (though at his age, not probable) that he’s finally learned how to hit a little.

I’m playing around with a very crude projection system (your basic three-year average, with performance trending and age coefficients thrown in) and Ordonez comes out at .262/.292/.362. That seems a tad high to me (which in itself is kinda pathetic), but not unreasonable. I don’t have enough data points to make a projection for Greene, but my WAG is that he’ll hit about like 1989 Kevin Elster (.231/.283/.360), with a best case being something like 1998 Aurilia (.266/.319/.407). Neither one of those is likely to make a huge positive impact relative to what Ordonez offers.

Even if Ordonez hits .248/.291/.311 (his career average) and we assume that Greene would’ve hit like 1998 Aurilia if given the chance, how much of a difference would that make? Using an an incredibly simplified version of runs created, that’s about 24 runs over the course of a season assuming 600 at-bats. What is that, about two or three wins? Not a huge difference, and that’s assuming Greene’s best case and Ordonez’ average output.

Greene has upside that Ordonez can only dream of, but the bottom line is that the Pads aren’t going to get much production from their shortstop this year. Whether they’re not getting it from Greene or from Ordonez isn’t all that important in the long run. If Greene wins the job in spring, great. If not, no big deal. The critical thing to me isn’t how quickly Greene cracks the starting lineup, but ensuring that once he does, he stays there for a long time. Whatever presents the best opportunity for that to happen is okay with me.

That said, I hope Greene kicks some serious tail in Peoria and establishes himself now. I’m excited about his future, and I’d love to see him starting at Petco this year. But if that doesn’t happen right away, it’s not the end of the world.

Other News

  • Petco Park will present challenges for players (NC Times). Balls are flying out down the left field line and dying in right-center. Debate rages as to whether Petco will be more of a hitters’ park or favor the pitchers. Also up in the air is which corners Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko patrol in the outfield. Early indications are that right field will be the more demanding position, which would make sticking Giles there a sensible move. The one thing everyone seems to agree on is the excitement about getting to play in a new park.
  • Plate appearance distribution by age, 2003 Fascinating stuff here. The Padres gave 55.4% of their plate appearances to players under 30, slightly below the big-league average of 58.6%.
  • Current Minor League Equivalent Averages (Baseball Prospectus). This actually has been out there for a while, but I just stumbled onto it. The file is huge and takes some time to load if you’re on dialup like I am. But there is all kinds of great information here.

Petco Sees First Action

by Geoff Young on Jan 22, 2004 (Comments Off) Comments

Don’t get too excited, it’s just workouts. Closed to the public. Oh okay, go ahead and get excited. It’s still pretty cool. Baseball is just around the corner.

Not much else going on right now, so I’ll leave you with this nugget:

Enjoy!

Band Stories

by Geoff Young on Jan 20, 2004 (Comments Off) Comments

Nothing much happening in the world of baseball, so today I’m subjecting you to band stories.

My band, as I may have mentioned, is looking for a bass player. We’ve interviewed and auditioned a few folks, some with promise. It’s like dating. You hook up, you call, maybe you hook up again, and if everything falls just right, you end up with someone you can live with for an extended period of time. We’re in the hooking up phase right now.

Anyway, after taking several weeks off due to the holidays, the remaining band members got together this weekend to dislodge the rust before resuming with auditions. It was a blast.

Without a bass player, I found myself trying to throw in as much bottom end as possible. And we even busted out some songs we’d never even tried or intended to try. The best was Nirvana’s "Come As You Are." We knew the first verse, the chorus, and the main riff. The solo isn’t technically difficult and I was able to pull it off reasonably well on the fly. And every now and then I’d chime in with Dave Grohl’s harmonies ("no, I don’t have a gun") whether or not the situation warranted them. Sloppy as hell, parts in the wrong places, but we sure had a good time.

Thus concludes today’s band story. We hope you enjoyed it. Maybe someday I’ll tell you about the infamous "six of us and three of them" gig at Bodie’s many moons ago.

Smells Like…Baseball

by Geoff Young on Jan 19, 2004 (Comments Off) Comments

For reasons I don’t entirely comprehend, my wife actually reads this site on a regular basis, so in the interest of self-preservation and because she just all-around kicks ass (guyspeak for "I wuv u"): Happy Birthday, babe!

Okay, baseball. So we made it out to the Aztec alumni game Friday night. Didn’t get there till the third inning, but there was no score so no big deal. I didn’t recognize too many of the guys on the alumni squad: Brandon Rogers and Jim Rushford were probably the biggest names out on the field. Rogers, a catcher by trade, played an inning or two at third and was talking it up big time.

Actually, everyone was talking. The whole affair felt more like a beer-league softball game than a college baseball game. The scoreboard wasn’t working, guys in the dugout were yelling at guys on the field and laughing. A whole group of college kids who knew one of the Aztec reserves sat next to us. Every inning he’d trot out toward the bullpen area to warm up the left fielder and these kids would go nuts. (It was even worse when he got into the game.)

SDSU Alumni Game 2004
Note the blank scoreboard at upper left.

The game was sloppy and at times a little goofy. But it was baseball. Finally around the eighth inning, with the game well in hand (current Aztecs up, 6-1), hunger set in and we went to L & L for killer Hawaiian barbecue.

I don’t know how the game ended, and I don’t particularly care. I just know that baseball is back and life is good again.

And on the Other Side of Town…

USD also played its first game, Sunday afternoon against CETYS [site is in Spanish]. As you can see, it was a beautiful day for a ballgame:

Cunningham Stadium

As you can also see, it was not a beautiful ballgame:

Geoff's cue to leave

If you can’t make that out, it’s 15-1 with two out in the bottom of the fifth. The visiting team has three hits and five errors. Time to leave.

Other News

I don’t get to visit other baseball blogs nearly as often as I’d like these days, but at least once a month I try to check in on everyone in my list of Hot Links there on the right just to make sure they’re still around and publishing interesting stuff. I did that the other day and stumbled across some gems, which I now pass along to you:

General Silliness

Odds and Ends

by Geoff Young on Jan 16, 2004 (Comments Off) Comments

It’s the end of the week, I’m running on fumes. Bullet points to the rescue…

  • ‘Svelte’ Wells shows up on Padres’ doorstep (NC Times). Wells looks good and is saying all the right things. Mention also is made of Adam Eaton, who reportedly has avoided arbitration by signing a 2-year deal worth $5.25M. In addition, the Pads are talking to San Diego native Mark McLemore. No word on the availability of Brady Anderson.
  • A 50-to-1 shot Aaron Gleeman gives the Padres a little love. He also has an extended segment on his trip to Vegas. It is interesting to see that town through the eyes of someone who hasn’t experienced it over and over again. This line is classic:

    The downtown area contains about 95% of the same stuff that the strip has, but it somehow loses every aspect of what makes Las Vegas special.

    I don’t really know where to begin with that one, so I’ll just let it stand on its own. Downtown, of course, is the best place to be in Vegas, but that’s just me. And the sports book at the Golden Nugget rocks, no matter what Aaron says. :-)

Local College Baseball Schedules

The Aztecs play their annual alumni game tonight at Tony Gwynn Stadium. I’ll have a report on Monday. Here are the full schedules for those interested:

  • SDSU — Tony Gwynn’s alma mater
  • USD — My alma mater
  • UCSD — My wife did grad school here; we don’t like to talk about it
  • PLNU — I have never been to a game here, but that will change this year.

This also gives me the chance to plug a cool site. If you haven’t been there before, San Diego Baseball.com is the place to go for coverage of local collegiate baseball.

Well, I’ve been sitting here for a good half-hour trying to come up with something else interesting to say or link to, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. I can’t even come up with a good joke to tell you.

Or a bad one…

Payton’s Place

by Geoff Young on Jan 14, 2004 (Comments Off) Comments

Caught the very end of Rondell White’s second grand slam against the Mariners game last night. Only four of the guys in that game’s starting lineup are still with the club, and one of them (Xavier Nady) now looks to start 2004 at Triple-A Portland.

The reason for Nady’s return to the minors is the subject of today’s entry, Jay Payton. According to ESPN, Payton has signed with the Pads for 2 years at $5.5M. That’s slightly cheaper than similar outfielders who declared for free agency and signed earlier this off-season. Payton will play center field and bat sixth, most likely between Ryan Klesko and Ramon Hernandez.

When Payton was non-tendered last month, I thought he might be a useful addition to the club:

Could be a good pickup as long as he doesn’t command too much money thanks to his Coors-inflated numbers of a year ago (see Jeffrey Hammonds)… I’d ink Payton, assuming he could be had for roughly the apparent going rate of 2 years for $6M. If he insisted on more than two years or more than $4M per, I’d pass.

This is working out well. The Pads have ended up significantly upgrading their catching situation without taking a real hit on the field or in the pocketbook. Let’s run a quick tale of the tape between Payton and his predecessor, Mark Kotsay:

           Payton  Kotsay
Age            31      28
Ht           5-10     6-0
Wt            185     180
B               R       L
T               R       L
OPS+ (03)     112      97
OPS+ (car)    103     100
salary      2/5.5  3/16.5

Payton probably isn’t the defender Kotsay is, but he should offer a little more at the plate. Plus he helps balance out a lineup that has become very left-handed.

And lest you think Payton is a product of Coors–well, sure he’s probably not going to hit 28 homers again–but check this out:

Home .322/.377/.540
Road .281/.330/.483

Okay, so he loses 100 points of OPS away from Denver, but I’ll take those road numbers out of my #6 hitter any time. Geez, he actually hit more homers on away from Coors (15) than he did at home (13). Maybe 28 homers isn’t a total pipe dream after all. Perhaps also worth noting is that Payton thrived in the #6 spot last year:

#6 .333/.387/.591
#2 .300/.350/.464

Yep, this is looking like a mighty fine signing to me. The only downside I see is that Nady now will start the season back at Triple-A. And in the long run, maybe that’s no so bad anyway. Nady never got his full season in at that level thanks to Phil Nevin’s injury and at least he’ll get a chance to play every day there. So much for Nady being my breakout candidate on offense this year. But with the move into Petco Park and all the expectations that brings, the Padres can’t afford to develop guys at the big-league level now. There is going to be a shift in emphasis, and maybe a little sense of urgency isn’t the worst thing in the world for this ballclub.

Meanwhile, Back Behind the Plate

The on-again, off-again Jason Kendall deal is off again (ESPN). Some folks are calling it dead, but comatose is a more accurate description. Rest assured, we haven’t heard the last of this deal. The Pirates still need to get rid of Kendall’s contract, and they still don’t have an everyday third baseman. They keep expecting Kevin Towers to blink, but he pretty much holds all the cards here and thus far has shown no inclination to make any less a deal than precisely the one he wants to make. The Bucs need this trade to happen a lot more than the Pads do. Meantime, Towers appears content to go into the season with his new All-Star catcher and wait for the Pirates to pay what he deems a satisfactory amount of Kendall’s salary before making any further moves.

Will something happen with Kendall? Maybe, maybe not. But I’m pretty confident it won’t happen until Towers is satisfied with the finances. How much longer can the Pirates afford to hold out and continue to pay Kendall’s salary? Who knows. I do know that if I were in Towers’ shoes right now, I’d be pretty happy no matter how this plays out. Either way, you end up with an exponentially better catcher than you had last year without adversely affecting your on-field product or the bottom line.

This isn’t the Angels going out and buying the best front-line talent on the market. It’s a little more subtle than that. But for Padre fans who have grown accustomed to not even being fringe players, it’s pretty exciting.

Euthanizing Time

by Geoff Young on Jan 13, 2004 (Comments Off) Comments

Because killing it is just too cliche. So now we wait: for Kendall, for Payton, for Guffman.

I’m having trouble thinking along with Kevin Towers at this point. If all of this maneuvering has been done with the goal of bringing Jason Kendall to San Diego without severly impacting the budget, kudos to Towers for orchestrating it. But I’ll hold off making any judgment until I see what actually happens.

While we’re waiting, and because I have nothing better to share with you, I’ll toss out a list of books I’m currently reading or planning to read in the very near future:

  • Sporting News Baseball Register This is an amalgamation of the old STATS Major League Handbook and the venerable Baseball Register. It contains full minor- and major-league statistics for everyone who appeared in a big-league game in 2003. There’s also a manager register that includes year-by-year records as well as tendencies for the most recent season. Other goodies include 2003 leader boards, active leader boards, and single-season lefty-righty splits. I didn’t buy last year’s version because it looked like a weak imitation of the old Handbook, but I’m finding the current release quite useful.
  • The Bill James Handbook This one is laid out more like the old Handbook but also contains yearly runs created totals for hitters. Other handy information includes extended defensive statistics, year-by-year managerial tendencies, park indices, and year-by-year win shares for all players active in 2003. There is a fair amount of overlap between the Register and the Handbook, but there are just enough differences to justify a spot on the reference shelf for both. They complement each other well.
  • Baseball America Almanac 2004 Team-by-team full organizational pitching and hitting stats; fielding stats for full-season leagues; coverage of minor, independent, winter, and foreign leagues; college, high school, and amateur snapshots; a complete listing of picks from the 2003 draft (including which players had signed by press time). I have every edition of this one since 1997 and still refer to the older ones every now and then.
  • The Mental ABC’s of Pitching (H.A. Dorfman). Written by a sports psychologist who has been employed as an instructor/counselor by numerous big-league baseball clubs over the years, this book examines a slew of different issues that confront a pitcher over the course of a game, season, and/or career. Each topic is covered in a very short, easily absorbable essay. The problem is described, often with real-world examples and inspirational quotes, and steps for overcoming or mastering the problem are given. Provides a lot of food for thought while watching pitchers.

There are others, but they don’t have to do with baseball. Plus I’m out of hot chocolate.

That’s all for now. With luck, I’ll have something more interesting to report tomorrow.

Catcher Carousel?

by Geoff Young on Jan 12, 2004 (Comments Off) Comments

So the Angels, of all teams, signed Vlad Guerrero. Looks like I’ll be making a few more trips to Anaheim this summer.

In other news that refuses to die, according to Fox the Pads apparently are talking to the Pirates once again about catcher Jason Kendall. The U-T also mentions this possibility in today’s print edition. Jeff Cirillo, who cannot block a trade to Pittsburgh, would be involved, as would recently acquired catcher Ramon Hernandez. The U-T mentions that Kendall "is due $20M more than the Padres owe Cirillo and Hernandez" but that the Pads would save roughly $1.9M in 2004 and clear a spot on the 40-man roster were they to make the trade.

The U-T also corroborates Fox’s story that the Padres are interested in signing free agent Jay Payton. If this happens, it would improve the outfield defense but also push Xavier Nady back into limbo.

Fascinating times in Padreland. Never mind the ball; keep your eye on the players.

Odds and Ends

by Geoff Young on Jan 09, 2004 (Comments Off) Comments

The other night, Channel 4 rebroadcast this beauty in Seattle. Jake Peavy dominated, Sean Burroughs hit a bomb to right, and Xavier Nady had two hits. Got me pretty jazzed for the upcoming season.

It also got me to thinking about some of the Padres’ young talent and who might be poised for a breakout in 2004. Peavy and Burroughs are the obvious choices, but both are so young that they might not be quite ready to take their game to the next level. Don’t get me wrong, I think both will do real well this year, but I’m thinking their breakout season will come in 2005.

For this year, I like Nady and Adam Eaton. Before the injury to Phil Nevin, Nady was slated to spend the year at Portland. Instead, he was pushed to learn a new position at the big-league level. He started out strong, failed to adjust when the league figured him out, went back to Triple-A, and finished strong with the big club. Nady’s career path has been a little skewed due to his own injuries and those of others, but take a look at how he compares with another guy who came up relatively late and blossomed in his second season:

    AB  BA OBP SLG ISO
XN 371 267 321 391 124
MO 535 282 326 415 133

 XB/H BB/K AB/HR OPS+
  273  324  41.2  92
  272  528  38.2  93

MO is Magglio Ordonez and hit .301/.349/.510 the following year, with 31 homers. No two players follow the same path, of course, but Nady has had success in the past and it’s not unreasonable to think that given 550 at-bats he could post a .285ish BA, 825ish OPS, and 25 or so jacks. That’s about what Nady’s numbers would look like if he took a similar jump to that made by Ordonez at age 25. Will it happen? Who knows. But I like Nady’s chances more than his 712 OPS as a rookie ordinarily would warrant.

As for Eaton, last year was his first back from Tommy John surgery. He pitched above and beyond expectations, and he was still feeling his way around out there. No statistics to go with this one, but just based on what I saw of him in 2003, I’m thinking he’ll add that extra bit of consistency he needs to move one step closer to the NL elite.

Mailbag

One man’s answer is another man’s question. Regular reader Anthony Trifiletti writes:

Nice work on the Gary Bennett analysis. I think his effect on ERA has as much or more to do with his defensive skills than calling pitches. He’s very good at blocking the plate and handles balls in the dirt well.

If I recall correctly, Bennett came off the DL around the same time that Booker was fired and Balsley came in as pitching coach. Any idea what the staff ERA was pre and post Balsley? I would think the combination of the two could account for the large ERA discrepancy.

Good question. Booker was fired as pitching coach May 17. Bennett returned from the DL less than a week later, on May 23. It may prove difficult to separate the impact of those two events on the Padre pitching staff but let’s give it a shot. I couldn’t find splits for the entire team based on that date, but I was able to look through the logs of the big three starters and here’s the verdict:

Adam Eaton

           IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA
Booker   41.0  36  2 14  41 3.73
Balsley 142.0 137 18 54 105 4.18

  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
 7.90 0.44 3.07 9.00  2.93
 8.68 1.14 3.42 6.65  1.94

Brian Lawrence

           IP   H HR BB SO  ERA
Booker   46.0  44  4 20 27 4.89
Balsley 164.2 162 23 37 89 3.83

  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
 8.61 0.78 3.91 5.28  1.35
 8.85 1.26 2.02 4.86  2.41

Jake Peavy

           IP   H HR BB  SO  ERA
Booker   54.2  52 10 23  51 4.45
Balsley 140.0 121 23 59 105 3.99

  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
 8.56 1.65 3.79 8.40  2.22
 7.78 1.48 3.79 6.75  1.78

Looks like the pitching coach wasn’t as much of a factor last year with these guys as was the catcher (using ERA only):

             catcher        pitching coach
          Bennett  other   Booker  Balsley
Eaton       3.91    4.74    3.73    4.18
Lawrence    3.20    7.02    4.89    3.83
Peavy       3.58    5.73    4.45    3.99

Eaton pitched better (check the peripherals) under Booker. Lawrence caught a lot more plate under Balsley. Peavy’s results didn’t change a lot, although his hits allowed and strikeouts were down a bit under Balsley. Nice thought, Anthony, but in the sample we have to work with, it looks like Bennett helped more than Balsley with the big three.

That’s our time for today. Have an excellent weekend, and we’ll catch you again next week.