With Mike Cameron now a member of the Mets and Kenny Lofton angling toward the other New York team, maybe it’s time to consider some other options. Supposedly with Cameron and Lofton off the market, Kevin Towers is now focusing his attention on the rotation. But I hold out some hope that the current outfield configuration isn’t the one that will be backing that rotation.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the current free agents on the market who have experience playing center field. They’ve been grouped according to what "type" of free agent they are. As a useful reference, here are the Elias Sports Bureau rankings used to determine which draft pick(s) the signing team has to cough up as compensation to the team that is losing the player.
For a pretty exhaustive piece on how compensation works, see the Baseball America FAQ. For our purposes, because the Padres pick in the first half of the first round, all Type A and Type B free agents listed here would cost the club a second-round pick, assuming the player’s current team has offered them arbitration.
Type A
Everett, who hit .287/.366/.510 last year splitting time between the ChiSox and Rangers, turns 33 in June. He played 81 games in center field, mostly as a member of the Sox. His range factor at that position was 2.52 (vs 2.78 for the entire AL). Everett earned just over $9M in 2003. In each of the two previous seasons he posted a park-adjusted OPS that was below league average. Everett also has a somewhat less than stellar reputation in the clubhouse and with the media.
Bottom line: Pretty good offensive player. Probably not worth the cost or trouble. On the other hand, other guys with bad reps have come here and thrived. If the Pads could get him to take a one-year deal for about half what he made last year, then maybe. But I wouldn’t count on that happening.
Sanders is 36 years old and hasn’t played center field at all since 2000, and not regularly since 1998. He hit .285/.345/.567 last year with Pittsburgh and has been an above-average offensive performer each of the past three seasons (and in all but twp of his twelve big-league campaigns). The downside is that, due to injuries, Sanders has accumulated more than 500 at-bats in only one of those twelve seasons. He was a bargain for the Bucs in 2003, who paid him $1M to hit 31 homers.
Bottom line: Good hitter when healthy. Well received in his one year (1999) with the Padres. He’s due a salary increase and he realistically can’t be expected to patrol center field with any kind of regularity. Sanders will again be a good signing for someone, but it won’t be the Pads.
Stewart turns 30 in February and has been a remarkably consistent performer throughout his big-league career. He’s been roughly at or slightly above league average offensively in each of his six full seasons. Stewart has gaps power, draws the occasional walk, and runs well. Like Sanders, he hasn’t played center field regularly since 1998, with his last appearance there coming in 2000. Stewart earned $6.2M in 2003 and may fetch more next year thanks to the surreal MVP talk surrounding him after his acquisition by the Twins last summer.
Bottom line: He’s played center field, but he isn’t a center fielder. His high batting averages (over .300 every year since 1999) and last summer’s hype mean Stewart won’t come cheaply. Will be useful, if overpaid for his actual contribution, but isn’t a good fit for the Padres.
Type B
Like Stewart, Cruz will play 2004 as a 30-year-old. Also like Stewart, he generally is right around or slightly above league average in terms of offensive production. The big difference is that while Stewart relies primarily on batting average, Cruz has managed to crack .260 just once in seven seasons and is more dependent on his secondary skills. But even those are inconsistent from year to year. Sometimes he’s a serious power hitter with an aggressive approach (2001), sometimes more of a gaps guy who gets on base (2003). Last year he hit .250/.366/.414 with the Giants, who paid him $2.5M for his services. Cruz played just three games in center last year and hasn’t played there regularly since 2001.
Bottom line: Failing Cameron or Lofton, this is the one guy I wouldn’t have minded seeing the Padres nab. He’s got some on base skills, he can hit the ball out of the park on occasion, and he relatively inexpensive for what he does. Cruz reportedly has signed a 2-year, $6M deal with Tampa Bay. Good signing for the Devil Rays.
Guillen is just entering his physical prime, turning 28 this May. Last year was a breakout season for the talented outfielder, as he finished at .311/.359/.569 while splitting time between Cincinnati and Oakland. The downside is that this marked the first time Guillen had ever posted a better-than-league-average OPS in seven seasons (in fact, it was the first time his OPS+ had cracked 90). That’s not real good for a corner outfielder, which brings us to the next issue: Guillen has played exactly 14 games in center field in his big-league career.
Bottom line: Guillen isn’t a center fielder. His track record is spotty, at best. He still is too aggressive at the plate (his 24 walks this season are a single-season high). Guillen was a real find for the Reds in 2003, and he could well be useful to a team this coming season, either as a starting right fielder or a bat off the bench. But Guillen is unlikely to perform as well as he did last year, and whoever ends up signing him may well overpay based on his .311 batting average and 31 homers in 2003. He is not a good fit for the Padres.
Uncompensated
I won’t bother analyzing these guys, because they’re just not all that interesting. Here are the names: Marvin Benard, Tom Goodwin, and Orlando Palmeiro. Benard and Palmeiro have some on-base skills and could be of use off the bench. Goodwin is very fast. The Padres don’t need guys like these, and the fact that this is all that’s left on the market leads me to believe Kevin Towers’ assertion that pitching is now the priority. Maybe a trade for Minnesota’s Jacque Jones will happen later this winter, but for now it looks like the Padres are content to go with Ryan Klesko in left, Brian Giles in center, and Xavier Nady in right.
Other News
More on Aki Otsuka
- Otsuka’s dream comes true as he joins Padres bullpen (NC Times)
- Padres glad to aid Otsuka’s pursuit of big league goal (U-T)
General Winter Meetings
- Towers is at ease for winter meetings (NC Times). Speculation on possible moves involving Adam Eaton, Phil Nevin, Seattle’s Freddy Garcia, Greg Maddux, Kevin Jarvis, and Terrence Long.
- Padres close to signing Hitchcock for new stint (U-T). Looks like our old friend Sterling Hitchcock will be brought in to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation.
- Hitchcock returns to San Diego (padres.com). It’s all but official. More thoughts on Maddux and the outfield situation.
It’s been a pretty exciting winter so far for Padre fans. Here’s hoping there’s more in store…
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