Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

As you might imagine, the finale at Qualcomm was a bittersweet event. Although I’ve never been a great fan of the stadium (especially since the Chargers cut off the view of Mission Hills to accommodate the Super Bowl folks), I have many fond memories of the place and it is odd to think that I’ll never see a baseball game there again.

We arrived around 1:15, for a 2 PM start. The place was packed, and yet there were seats still available. The game was a microcosm of the season itself. The Padres had numerous opportunities throughout the afternoon and put themselves in position to win, but ultimately they squandered their chances and gave the game to the opposition.

Jake Peavy pitched well in spots, made one crucial mistake, and turned the ball over to what looked suspiciously like the inept bullpen from April and May. Xavier Nady hit the final homer of his rookie campaign. Deposited it in almost exactly the same spot as his first big-league bomb. Mark Loretta drilled a solo shot in his last at-bat of the year to break Roberto Alomar’s club record for hits in a season by a second baseman. Bruce Bochy got thrown out of the game arguing a very close call at first base. Trevor Hoffman, entering to AC/DC’s "Shook Me All Night Long" (not to the familiar "Hell’s Bells") worked a scoreless ninth. The Pads even managed to put the first two runners on in the ninth, before Gary Bennett struck out on a 3-2 pitch from Justin Speier to end the season. Bennett had a great at-bat, though, giving Speier more of a fight than I expected. As the game was a representation of the 2003 season, so Bennett’s at-bat was a representation of the game. He gave it all he possibly could, but in the end it just wasn’t enough.

After the game, the grounds crew were driven in by Marines from behind the right field fence. The crew then proceeded to remove home plate from the playing field and hand it first to Padres CEO John Moores, then to Mayor Dick Murphy. The mayor then presented it to the Marines, who drove it off to Petco Park. (About half an hour later we saw a live shot from Petco, with Mayor Murphy handing home plate to the stadium work crew.)

Next up came video highlights of great moments at the Q, followed by an introduction of former players. The obscure (Rob Nelson, Broderick Perkins), moderately popular (Kurt Bevacqua, Gene Richards), and legendary (Tony Gwynn, Randy Jones, Dave Winfield) all were represented. The biggest cheers went (in alphabetical order) to Ken Caminiti, one of Mike Darr’s sons (riding on the shoulders of Gary Matthews Jr.), Dave Dravecky, Steve Garvey, Mark Grant, Gwynn, Jones, Wally Joyner, Ozzie Smith, Garry Templeton, and Winfield.

The current squad followed the former Padres. After all the players ran out to their positions (more or less), the words "Trevor Time" appeared on the scoreboard and "Hell’s Bells" began blaring over the stadium sound system for one last time. Hoffman came trotting in from the bullpen, with fireworks shooting off behind him along the left-field line. Kinda cheesy, but very cool. The crowd (which had been doing the wave and throwing beach balls as recently as the ninth inning) was totally into it. For me, it was pretty surreal. Kind of a cross between Field of Dreams and the Grateful Dead show I saw in Vegas back in ’91.

We screamed, we clapped. We screamed some more, we clapped some more. Then Gwynn came out and threw the final pitch at Qualcomm to manager Bochy (who also got a huge ovation). After that, the former and current Padres made their exit behind the right field fence. Jerry Coleman then came out to a mike stand at second base and thanked everyone for supporting the Padres over the years. Then he walked away and the stadium lights were shut off.

My wife and I stood there a good deal longer. It was finally hitting me that maybe the Q wasn’t as bad as I thought it was. I mean, it is not a good baseball park. But we’ve had a lot of great times there and now we’ll probably never go there again (not being big fans of football, monster trucks, or Billy Graham).

Here are my fondest memories of the Q (games I attended only; 1998 playoffs aren’t represented here, although watching the fans pay tribute to the Pads after they were swept by the Yankees in the World Series was pretty awesome):

• Late-70s: First live baseball game ever. Remember Dave Winfield playing, Gene Tenace hitting two homers, asking my dad what quarter it was at some point, and generally being bored. I believe it may have been this game but I’m not sure.
• 1993-94: Heading out after the Fire Sale and sitting pretty much wherever we wanted on weekdays.
• 1997: Sitting near the visitors’ bullpen, listening to a drunk guy ride Pirate lefty Matt Ruebel all game. (One of the least creative hecklers I’ve ever heard. His entire repertoire consisted of, "Hey Ruebel! We own you! You’re nothing!" It was almost like a mantra. Sad, but funny at the same time.)
• 1998: A bunch of guys from one of my Scoresheet leagues caught a doubleheader against the Mets. At some point we all decided to hold a mini-draft during one of the games. Basically each of us agreed to cut our four worst players and throw them into a pool. We then drew for draft order and proceeded to pick players until the pool was empty. It didn’t end up accomplishing much, but heck, what else are you gonna do at a doubleheader, right?
• 1998: The Mariners make their first trip to San Diego. We score tickets right behind first base. Ken Griffey during one at-bat launches his stick into the seats. He ends up drawing a walk. When he reaches first, he locates the area where his bat landed, finds the person it hit, and yells, "Are you okay?" It may not mean much, but he didn’t have to do that. Also remember Randy Johnson getting a hit, then taking about four strides going from first to third later that same inning.
• 1999: As Tony Gwynn approaches 3000 hits, I calculate roughly when I expect him to reach the plateau and buy tickets in the right-field bleachers for the entire homestand. Gwynn lands on the DL just after I purchase the tickets and we end up seeing a lot of Mike Darr for a week and a half.
• 2002: A friend of mine hooks us up with seats (see July 17 entry) directly above the Padres dugout. Oliver Perez is pitching. We can see his eyes as he’s coming off the field. By far the most involved I’ve ever felt at a big-league game.

Those are some of my memories of the Q. What are yours?

Went up to LA this weekend, caught the Dodger-Giant game Saturday night. Barry Bonds went 0 for 2, with two walks (one intentional) and a sac fly. But the interesting story in this game was that of former Dodger Roy Gleason, who played with the club briefly in 1963 before being shipped to Vietnam. While serving his country, Gleason suffered a career-ending injury.

So the Dodgers brought Gleason out onto the field to throw the ceremonial first pitch. Vin Scully had a prerecorded message running on the scoreboard and welcomed the former outfielder back to Dodger Stadium. Gleason threw the pitch in the dirt to rookie Koyie Hill. Then something special happened. As Gleason was walking off the field, Scully reappeared on the scoreboard and mentioned that Gleason had lost the World Series ring he’d received for his part in the 1963 season. The current Dodger team then came out of the dugout and lined up along the third base line. Manager Jim Tracy stepped forward to present Gleason with a new World Series ring.

For an organization that has been notably lacking in class since the O’Malleys sold it to Fox, this was a terrific moment and it was great to see a guy like Gleason getting his due. The game was fun, but nothing in the actual contest measured up to what happened before it. I’m glad I was there to see it and to learn about Gleason’s story. ESPN has more about Gleason.

Housekeeping

Just did a little work over there on the right:

• Updated links to Aaron’s Baseball Blog and etaoinshrdlu
• Moved Scoresheet Baseball to "Useful Resources"
• Added Retrosheet and Boston Dirt Dogs

Mailbag

Speaking of Bonds, regular reader Chewy Lomax chimes in with this question:

As Bonds reaches the “Mays level”, what do you think are the odds that he will reach Aaron’s mark and when?

Also, in my opinion, primarily because of diluted pitching and a physically stronger brand of professional athlete, it seems that there many more players with the potential to reach 755 in the relatively near future…do you agree and if so, who are the players to watch?

Back in the 1980s (the 1981 Baseball Abstract I believe), Bill James introduced something he calls "The Favorite Toy" to help determine a player’s chances of reaching a particular milestone based on established rate of production in that area and estimated years remaining in career.

At the conclusion of 2002, The Diamond Angle ran the numbers and estimated that Bonds had a 20% chance of breaking Aaron’s record.

That’s a pretty good chance, but it’s gotten even better since then. Bonds is now at 657; he’s into double digits needed to pass Aaron. Think about that for a second. At any rate, thanks to 756watch.com, we can see Bonds’ updated numbers. Through Sunday, Sept. 21, his chances are 31.7%.

This site also gives estimates for other current big leaguers, which brings us to the second part of Chewy’s question. According to James’ formula, Alex Rodriguez has the best shot of any player to break the home-run record, at 36.6%. Others who have a chance are Sammy Sosa (23.9%), Jim Thome (7.5%), Albert Pujols (5.4%, assuming his listed age is correct), and Andruw Jones (1.1%). I also happen to think that Vlad Guerrero is a monstrous year or two away from joining this list.

Which of these guys will break the record? Who knows? But consider that the estimated chance that anyone currently playing will hit 756 or more home runs now stands at 71.4%. Whether it’s because of diluted pitching (I don’t think so, but that’s a rant for another day) or physically stronger athletes, those are some pretty good odds that we’ll see Aaron’s record fall in the next 20 years.

Josh Barfield

A few weeks ago, we started looking at Barfield and some possible paths his career might take. We compared how Barfield stacked up against a variety of players who’d posted similar numbers at a similar stage in development, and looked at those other players’ adjacent years for clues as to where Barfield might be headed. Of course, this is all speculation, but the Padres have wrapped up last place in the NL West for 2003. What else is there to do but speculate about the future, right?

Using the same set of players, and using the formula "(Year 3 / Year 2) * 100 – 100", let’s see how everyone did in Year 3 versus Year 2.

name     yr lvl  obp  slg   ba  iso bb/k xb/h
Lee       2  A+ .366 .496 .301 .195 .377 .331
          3  AA .360 .570 .280 .290 .382 .536
        dif  +1  1.6 14.9  7.0 48.7  1.3 61.9
Hidalgo   2  AA .309 .434 .266 .168 .421 .369
          3  AA .341 .450 .294 .156 .527 .331
        dif  0   1.4  3.7  1.5  7.1 25.2  1.3
Hunter    2  A+ .330 .348 .246 .102 .494 .250
          3  AA .331 .401 .263 .138 .467 .333
        dif  +1  0.3 15.2  6.9 35.3  5.5 33.2
Ward      2  A+ .373 .435 .291 .144 .740 .319
          3  AA .398 .524 .329 .195 .676 .317
        dif  +1  6.7  2.5 13.1 35.4  8.6  0.6
Stynes    2  A+ .339 .423 .304 .119 .625 .265
          3  AA .351 .435 .317 .118 .639 .254
        dif  +1  3.5  2.8  4.3  0.8  2.2  4.2
Gant      2  A  .332 .397 .256 .141 .478 .321
          3  A+ .372 .529 .277 .252 .918 .472
        dif  +1 12.0 33.2  8.2 78.7 92.1 47.0

Numbers in red denote deterioration from Year 2 to Year 3.

Now here are the average, low, and high marks for each category:

     obp  slg   ba  iso bb/k xb/h
avg  5.2 15.1  6.0 31.7 17.8 21.2
min  1.6  2.8  7.0  7.1  8.6 10.3
max 12.0 33.2 13.1 78.7 92.1 61.9

And now for a quick illustration of what is meant by the phrase, "lies, damn lies, and statistics." Here’s what Barfield’s numbers would look like next year if his change from Year 2 to Year 3 was in line with the average, minimum, or maximum of those who have gone before him:

name              obp  slg   ba  iso bb/k xb/h
Barfield(Yr2Act) .389 .530 .337 .193 .410 .368
Barfield(Yr3Avg) .409 .610 .357 .254 .483 .446
Barfield(Yr3Min) .383 .545 .313 .179 .375 .330
Barfield(Yr3Max) .436 .706 .381 .345 .787 .596

Right, some of those numbers are pretty silly. If Barfield slugs over .700, I’ll eat my hat. I’ll eat all of my hats. I’ll go out and buy more hats and eat those, too.

But even if you take the worst differentials in each category and apply those to Barfield’s Year 2 numbers, you end up with a .313/.383/.545 season. At age 21? In Double-A? From a second baseman? Works for me.

Of course, as I’ve said numerous times, no man is a set of reducible equations. Looking closely at how analogous players performed and developed over time is a useful exercise in trying to determine how Barfield might develop. Will he take another leap forward, as Gant did? Will he flatline like Stynes? Will he regress, like the many who never made it to the big leagues did?

Who can say? This gives us ideas, not answers…

Wow, did anyone expect Jason Schmidt and the Giants to be able overcome Mike Bynum and the Pads? Bynum has allowed 13 homers now in just under 28 innings. That, my friends, is amazing. Right-handed hitters are slugging .741 against him this year. Southpaws, meantime, have a 563 OPS. Can you say, "situational lefty"?

Random thoughts on the Giant series thus far:

• I don’t remember Khalil Greene using that extremely relaxed, almost flat-footed stance at Elsinore last year. Then again, I’m not sure I ever saw him from the side when he batted. On the other hand, that stance produced his first big-league homer, so what the heck do I know?
• Monday night, Jay Witasick should have pitched to Barry Bonds with a two-run lead in the eighth and one on. I’m not second-guessing anyone; I was pretty vocal as it was happening. Just ask my television set.
• Jerome Williams looks tough. I’d heard good things about him, but he was even better than I expected him to be.
• Matt Vasgersian, whom I normally enjoy (aside from his silly rants about the 1997 Marlins; get over it already), was discussing Benito Santiago’s impending free agency the other night and said something that stuck with me. Vasgersian, noting the veteran catcher’s desire for a long-term contract, commented that in an ideal world, everyone would be on a one-year contract (or words to that effect). This got me to thinking: Ideal for whom? Certainly not the labor force. How about the fans? They shouldn’t be affected one way or another by the length of anyone’s contract. The employers? It might well benefit them, but when have baseball’s owners ever done anything to help themselves (in a constructive way; I’m not talking about Jeffrey Loria snagging all the Expos’ stuff and taking it with him to Florida)? The more I think about it, the more I can’t imagine Vasgersian’s vision being ideal for anyone. So why did he suggest it? I dunno, maybe he was having a bad day. I think his general point, though, was that an employee should have to prove his worth on an annual basis. Vasgersian, interestingly, is in the middle of a two-year contract.
• Have you noticed all those drives to deep right-center at PacBell? Petco is going to have a spot like that. Mark Kotsay and Phil Nevin hit the ball there a lot. With his speed, Kotsay may end up with a bunch of triples next year.
• Vasgersian and Mark Grant were noting how Todd Sears reminds them of hitting coach Dave Magadan. Personally, I think Sears more closely resembles John VanderWal.

Other Stuff

Sometimes folks send these in, sometimes I find ‘em on my own. Enjoy.

• Typophile: The Smaller Picture Be a part of the collective consciousness; flip a pixel or two and help create letters of the alphabet.
• Angle-Grinder Man He wears a blue leotard and cape. He removes wheel clamps from illegally parked cars. He lives in England.
• Brooke Adams for Governor "The current tax system is unfair. Rich people are soaked while others pay nothing." Right. Where’s Angle-Grinder Man when you need him?

That’s it; I’m wiped. More next time…

Not much good to say about last night’s game. Ben Howard was all over the place. Luther Hackman was right down the middle of the plate. Ramon Vazquez played like a guy who knows he’s lost his job.

Silver linings? A few:

• Although he had just one single to show for it, Sean Burroughs continued to hit the ball well. He also stole a base, although an awkward slide may have contributed to his being called out on the play.
• Mark Loretta (thumb) was back in the lineup.
• Gary Matthews had a walk and two hits, and made a couple nice plays in right field. He held Barry Bonds and Eric Young to singles on balls that looked for sure to be extra-base hits off the bat.
• Catcher Humberto Quintero made his first big-league start. He collected his first hit and RBI on a single back through the middle with two out in the second. He went down and slapped at a pretty tough breaking pitch from Kevin Correia. Quintero also showed a lot of life behind the plate, blocking pitches and throwing the ball often and with flair. Marquis Grissom got a huge jump off Howard in the fourth and swiped second, but Quintero made it close with a perfect throw from his knees. He’s an intriguing kid, reminded me a little of a young Benito Santiago. Don’t know that he’ll hit much, but given the Pads’ catching situation, he ought to get a good, long look.
• Howard’s velocity was good (92-94), and he showed a little ability with the stick, taking Barry Bonds to the track to end the second.

Correia looked real good for the Giants. The pitch he struck out Brian Giles with to end the third was a thing of beauty. Not often do you see a left-handed hitter buckle from a right-hander’s breaking ball.

Kirk Rueter and Brian Lawrence tonight. Khalil Greene and Xavier Nady will be in the lineup (according to last night’s TV broadcast), and Trevor Hoffman is scheduled to pitch an inning. Get down to the Q if you can.

Other News

Couple quick items of note:

• Can’t find this one online, but it’s in the print version of the U-T: In what the paper calls a "surprising move," the Padres have fired Elsinore manager Jeff Gardner. According to the report, the dismissal was due to "philosophical differences." It also suggests that Rick Renteria will succeed Gardner at Elsinore and that the Pads may try to retain Gardner in some other capacity. Gardner, it may be remembered, was the Pads’ advance scout in 1998 who earned a World Series share from Padre players that year.
• The Pads acquired minor-league vet Todd Sears from the Twins for minor-league infielder Alex Garcia. I know very little about either player. If you can tell me something about ‘em, drop me a line.

That’s all for now. Rueter and Lawrence tonight; Jerome Williams and Adam Eaton Thursday. Should be fun…

Taking a little break from the Josh Barfield stuff to focus for a moment (since we’re in that general frame of mind already) on Sean Burroughs. Last February I compared Burroughs to HOFer George Brett. Long story short: I said that Burroughs would need to hit about .285/.318/.416 last year to duplicate Brett’s output as a rookie in 1974. Burroughs, as we know, ended up at .271/.317/.323. Those first two numbers are pretty dead-on. The slugging percentage, obviously, was a bit lacking.

I also noted that Burroughs would need to ht roughly .312/.353/.511 this year to match what Brett did in his second season (again, adjusted for league offensive levels). Well, as we near the end of the season, Burroughs is hitting .300/.366/.422. So he’s getting on base a little better than Brett did at the same age, but still not driving the ball with as much authority.

Then in May of last year I ran some numbers using the 1996 Sickels data that I’m using to come up with comps for Barfield (gonna milk that dataset dry!) and came up with the following list of players as comps for Burroughs:

• Trey Beamon
• Roger Cedeno
• Richard Hidalgo
• Derek Jeter
• Edgar Renteria
• Dmitri Young

Hidalgo is on Barfield’s list as well: an odd, though not necessarily informative, coincidence. I probably should wait till the season is over to do this but what the heck. Let’s see how Burroughs’ line in his second big-league season compares with theirs:

             Age  AB  OBP  SLG  AVG  ISO BB/K XB/H
T. Beamon     23  65 .309 .323 .277 .046 .118 .167
S. Burroughs  22 434 .366 .422 .300 .122 .582 .285
R. Cedeno     22 194 .362 .392 .273 .119 .568 .283
R. Hidalgo    23 383 .328 .420 .227 .193 .767 .483
D. Jeter      23 654 .370 .405 .291 .114 .592 .253
E. Renteria   21 617 .327 .340 .277 .063 .417 .164
D. Young      24 536 .364 .481 .310 .171 .500 .380

This pair is particularly interesting:

             Age  AB  OBP  SLG  AVG  ISO BB/K XB/H
S. Burroughs  22 434 .366 .422 .300 .122 .582 .285
D. Jeter      23 654 .370 .405 .291 .114 .592 .253

Just for grins, here are Jeter’s two subsequent seasons:

Age  AB  OBP  SLG  AVG  ISO BB/K XB/H
 24 626 .384 .481 .324 .157 .479 .256
 25 627 .438 .552 .349 .203 .784 .320

What does any of this mean? I have no idea. And I certainly hope I’m not doing Burroughs a disservice by comparing him to an established star like Jeter. But isn’t it fun to look at how another player who put up similar numbers at a similar stage in his career ended up developing, and wonder what might be?