Free Agency Questions

Congratulations to the San Diego Chargers for clinching the AFC West yesterday. I did not think they’d win more than five games this year, but there they are at 11-3, headed to the playoffs for the first time since 1995. Kudos to Marty Schottenheimer, LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees, Antonio Gates, and all the other unlikely heroes that have made it all possible.

Turning to the baseball world, I have some questions about free agency. Since I started informally tracking free agent signings for my own amusement this winter, I’ve come to wonder what, if any, relationship there has been historically between the size of a player’s contract and:

  1. his past performance
  2. his future performance
  3. the signing team’s winning percentage
  4. the signing team’s attendance

Does the most money go to the best players? If so, do those players continue to be the best? Do teams that spend the most money see the most improvement on the field or at the ticket gate?

For example, I have trouble imagining how throwing $7.5M at two guys in their mid- to late-30s who combined to hit .273/.329/.372 in over 1000 plate appearances will help the Giants win more than 91 games next year. Sure, it’s possible that the Giants will improve in 2005. And I suppose it’s possible that their improvement could be attributable to the additions of Mike Matheny and Omar Vizquel. But it doesn’t seem very likely.

I guess what it really comes down to is this: Are teams spending their money wisely? If the answer is yes, then we should see some results. If the answer is no, then the owners really need to stop whining about financial losses and learn how to make better use of their resources.

No revelation in any of this. I’d just like to see some of these questions answered.

On a totally unrelated note, I picked up the Bill James Handbook 2005 the other day. I’m probably reading it on the plane as you’re reading about me reading it on the plane.

Anyway, there are some pretty cool nuggets in here. You can learn stuff like:

  • Petco Park was the hardest place in the big leagues for lefties to hit homers last year (it was also, with the exception of Hiram Bithorn Stadium in Puerto Rico, the hardest place for righties to leave the yard).
  • Petco Park was the easiest place in the big leagues to field ground balls (just 26 errors in games involving the Padres at home, as opposed to 51 on the road).
  • Although Petco squashed a lot of home runs, it didn’t depress overall scoring much more than Qualcomm did in 2002-2003 (runs scored index of 85 over those two years versus 82 last season).
  • With Woody Williams replacing David Wells in the rotation, the Padres actually look to be stronger against lefties. Southpaws hit .278/.299/.536 against Wells in 2004, and just .223/.298/.368 against Williams.
  • Mark Loretta led the league in away batting average last year (.368).
  • Loretta finished third in batting average against LHP (.352). Two other Padres made the top 10: Phil Nevin checked in at #9 (.324) and Ryan Klesko one slot ahead of him (.325). Klesko was the only left-handed hitter in the bunch.
  • Speaking of Klesko, he was 10th in the NL with a 946 OPS in the second half.
  • Among NL pitchers, only David Wells and Ben Sheets threw a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone last year than Adam Eaton.
  • Trevor Hoffman led NL relievers with a .087 opponent batting average with RISP. Only Armando Benitez (.220) had a better opponent OBP than Hoffman’s .242.
  • Brian Lawrence had the slowest average fastball in the NL (83.2 MPH). Only Tim Wakefield (75.9) and Jamie Moyer (81.6) were slower in all of baseball. Lawrence also threw a greater percentage of sliders than all NL pitchers other than Randy Johnson and Matt Clement.

You’ll also find goodies like 2005 player projections, career projections, injury projections (fascinating stuff), and of course win shares. (Quick: What do Eric Byrnes, Eric Chavez, Jeff Conine, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Ryan Klesko, Javy Lopez, and Corey Patterson have in common? All finished with 19 win shares last year. Proves nothing, but still kinda fun.)

That’s all for now. Gotta pack…

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