As you probably know, Hall of Fame results will be announced tomorrow. While we were waiting, Eric Mirlis (The Mirl.com) asked a bunch of writers to make their selections. I was fortunate enough to be among those asked to participate.
I chose five players from among the candidates: one was an absolute no-brainer in my mind, one was a little less obvious but had some special circumstances working in his favor, and the other three got my vote largely because they are at least as good as (if not better than) recent inductees who played the same position.
Head on over to TheMirl.com for more:
Who do you like on this year’s ballot, and why?
Good article, Geoff. I enjoy it very much.
Yes, I think Blyleven is a lock. He should have been in 5 years ago. I think he’s more deserving than Ozzie when the Wizard got voted in.
Not sure about Goose. Lee Smith for sure. Agree on Tommy John and Trammell.
Disagree on Concepcion. If the Oz and Bill Mazeroski is in, he should too.
Funny how guys that I thought were a lock when they played have been left out. Jim Rice seemed like a sure thing, but maybe that’s because I was in New England at the time. I do remember he took a lot of heat for grounding into a huge number of DPs every year, well over 30 some years.
Blyleven was always a good pitcher but not a guy you would look at and think Hall of Fame, but he did win 287 games and that’s got to get you in, right? I agree with you Geoff, if Sutton is in Blyleven should be in.
I don’t understand how Gossage isn’t in already. He was just awesome to watch and dominated for years. If any closer is in, Gossage has to be in.
Conversely, Smith was a guy who had good numbers but I never thought of as being all that great. But how can the career leader in a major category, the category that (rightly or wrongly) defines his position, not be in the Hall of Fame? He’s the Cy Young of closers.
At BTF I voted for Blyleven, Gossage and Trammell.
Blyleven was a great pitcher who happened to play for poor teams most of the time. He was regularly well below the league average ERA, and for the better part of two decades he was in the top 10 in K’s, K/9, K’s to BB’s, and WHIP.
Gossage was a dominant pitcher for a decade who helped revolutionize the game. His huge talent and success in the “closer” role (his role was much more than that of the modern closer, he pitched more innings and more high leverage innings than just the “last 3 outs with no one on base” situations most closers now face) helped pave the way for modern bullpen management and construction. If you look at his peak from 1975 to 1985 versus Smith’s 1983 to 1995, you’ll see Gossage was a much more dominant pitcher. Smith has the save numbers, but Gossage regularly threw more innings, was a better K pitcher, and was vastly superior in the ERA department relative to what the league was doing at the time (heck, in 1992 and 1993 Smith had 89 save with an ERA which was essentially league average!).
Trammell was a great SS, a position which is largely represented by glovemen in the Hall to date, both at the plate and in the field. Although his seasons were somewhat up and down if you look at OPS+, his WARP3 numbers show he brought the glove every year. His peak is execellent with 4 of 5 seasons above WARP3 of 10, including one of 13, and 8 of 10 seasons of at least 7.5.
Just announced: Sutter only one voted in. Another HOF mistake.
Agreed. If you’re going to choose just one, it pretty much has to be Blyleven. Without intending any disrespect to guys like Sutter and Ozzie Smith, who were fine, fine players, the HOF is getting a bit diluted.
Yeah, Geoff, to me the no-brainers were Blyleven & Gossage. And you could probably twist my arm on Trammell.
But Sutter would be behind about 10 people on that ballot for me, seriously. And I understand that the HOF standards for closers are just beginning to be sorted out, but Sutter is, for me, way behind Gossage, somewhat behind Smith, and arguably no better than Doug Jones, for God’s sake. So when the 3rd or 4th best closer on the ballot, and the 10th or 12th best guy overall, is the one guy elected… well, it’s clear that progress in using new (better! lemon-fresh, too!) tools for player evaluation is glacial at best.
On the good news side, I guess, is that Sutter in the HOF lowers the bar for Hoffy.
Guess on the positive, Blyleven got 58%+ votes.
So, perhaps in the next 2 years, he’ll be in.
I’d have picked Smith/Goosage before Sutter too.
I would be very happy but surprised if Hoffy ever made it to the HOF.
The one thing that “tools” don’t/can’t measure is the memory of the voters … I remember Sutter as “dominant” … for many years … and that’s certainly a necessary (though not necessarily sufficient) criteria for getting into the HOF.
And I’ll ask again, anyone else “planning” to go to the induction ceremony in 2007? I am, but haven’t yet made any reservations (plane nor hotel) … looking for tips … got any?
I was looking at Hoffy’s HOF case about a month ago. It appeared to me that, among relievers not yet in the Hall, only Gossage and Rivera are ahead of him. And that among relievers now in the Hall, he’s better than Fingers or Sutter by most measures. (I’d also give Hoffy an edge over Lee Smith.)
The one big exception is innings pitched. A major hurdle for the modern closer might be getting into the Hall having pitched no more innings than a starter might accumulate in a 5-year career. But that’s where Sutter has helped. Hoffy is at 822 innings and Sutter just lowered the bar to 1042 innings, far, far less than Wilhelm, Eckersley, or Fingers. If Hoffy can pitch a little above league average for three years and get over the 1000 inning mark, I think he’s got a decent shot to ride the Sutter precedent into the Hall.
Sutter? Wow. Lynch is right, my memories of Sutter are his filthy split finger just dropping off a table and making guys look stupid. It was practically unhittable, but not over a long period of time.
Now Gossage and Smith will have to go in at some point, and Hoffman is a lock I think. Mariano Rivera too.
“many years” != “long period of time”?
wow, sutter’s career was short … basically ’76 to ’84 … http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/suttebr01.shtml … plus 3 crummy years for the braves … where did 1984 come from? ERA+ had declined each season for previous 4 seasons, then BOOM: 226!
I was shocked at how short Sutter’s career was when I did the research. His career really wasn’t much, if any, better than that of John Wetteland.
Good news, at least the Padres didn’t have one of these 5 guys … list courtesy of BP …
146 men qualified for the batting title in 2005 (502 plate appearances). These are the five with the lowest VORP:
0.3: David Bell, Philadelphia (617 plate appearances)
2.5: Mike Lowell, Florida (558)
3.8: Alexis Rios, Toronto (519)
4.2: Scott Hatteberg, Oakland (523)
4.7 Aaron Boone, Cleveland (565)
I too was looking into Mr. Sutter. The epitome of overrated, imo. I look at the years he was a top 10 vote getter for MVP, not Cy Young but MVP, on lousy Cubs teams and wonder what the heck people were thinking. For whatever reason he seems to have received a lot more credit than he was due during his career and now after his career has ended. I look at him and at Gossage and it’s just not close. Yet another example are Baseball Reference’s “Similar Pitchers” rankings. For Gossage it’s Fingers and Wilhelm, both in the Hall; for Sutter it’s Doug Jones and Tom Henke. Say what!?!
Lynch:
I’ll be there next year. It’s going to be pretty crazy in Cooperstown, but I’ll find a way to get there.
No tips yet, haven’t started researching.
Lynch & Nick:
I’m talking with a couple of friend about plan for HOF induction for Gwynn. We are not sure based on recent election that Mr. Padres is going in on first ballot. However, we are still thinking of going, just in case. So, still researching and mulling over the idea of coming up with how to go.
Sutter? Urgh. Even my two Cubs’ friends are yawning. They are all about Dawson, but not Sutter.
NickG – is it about a 4 hour drive from your house to Cooperstown?
I think Gwynn gets in on first ballot … though not with as many votes as Ripken, who I think will get pretty close to 100% … I think it’s McGuire that might be on the bubble a bit … and I think that will get Gwynn a few more votes …
Tony G.’s got to get in first ballot. How could Boggs make it in the first time and Gwynn not? Anothony was a better player than Wade . . . I’m pretty confident that he’s going in next year.
I hear C-town is about 4-5 hours. Inexplicably, I’ve never been there.
The great news is that my wife is completely on board with going, even if it is going to be really crowded. So we’ll make it a family event.
Gwynn absolutely gets in, with 85%+ of the ballot. Ripken will clear 95%.