Fairness, Perception, and Viewing the World with a Critical Eye
Wed, Jan 11, 2006
by Geoff Young
So, Bruce Sutter is the lone inductee into the Hall of Fame this year. I have been to Cooperstown, once, in the summer of 1988. The Hall of Fame is a must-visit for any baseball fan; I highly recommend it and hope to get back there again one day soon (perhaps for Tony Gwynn’s eventual induction?). If you ever find yourself there with children, this would be a good opportunity to teach them about fairness, perception, and the importance of viewing the world they live in with a critical eye. Just because a bunch of people in positions of authority reach a consensus that someone or something is great doesn’t make it so. Not a terribly satisfying life lesson, but a valuable one.
For grins, which of the following describes the career of a Hall of Famer, and which describes that of a guy who didn’t receive enough votes to merit further consideration?
| Pitcher A | Pitcher B |
|---|---|
| 327 | 304 |
| 226 | 248 |
| 185 | 238 |
| 149 | 179 |
| 143 | 156 |
| 136 | 149 |
| 127 | 136 |
| 126 | 122 |
| 86 | 119 |
| 86 | 91 |
| 78 | 77 |
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Omits one season from each pitcher in which he worked fewer than 20 innings. | |
Can’t tell ‘em apart? Here, have another. Same deal, but with win shares:
| Pitcher A | Pitcher B |
|---|---|
| 27 | 21 |
| 23 | 16 |
| 22 | 15 |
| 17 | 13 |
| 16 | 13 |
| 16 | 12 |
| 13 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 |
| 8 | 8 |
| 3 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 |
| Stats courtesy of Bill James’ Win Shares. Omits one season from each pitcher in which he worked fewer than 20 innings. | |
Pretty obvious from this one that the role of closer had changed by the time Pitcher B had arrived, and I certainly won’t make the case that John Wetteland belongs in the Hall of Fame. But I do find it a bit amazing how much disconnect there can be between perception and reality. None of this is Sutter’s fault, of course, but it sure would be nice if the folks who make these decisions were at least paying attention.
Eight seasons of better-than-league average ERA gets you to Cooperstown. So, if you’re Trevor Hoffman are you optimistic about your chances now because you’ve had a better career than Sutter had? Or are you pessimistic because you know your fate rests with people who aren’t terribly adept at judging these things?
Other Reaction
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January 11, 2006 at 8:56 am
OT - here’s an interesting explanation of what an “option” is … http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=4700
January 11, 2006 at 9:05 am
Nice job, Geoff.
I take back my non-sure vote for Goose. After Sutter is in, Goose should be in. The thing is I don’t see how the voters could vote for Sutter and not for Goose and Smith.
Then again, I said the same thing about the OZ and Trammell. I don’t see Trammell’s support rising which is disappointing. On the other hand, I don’t get to vote either.
I think there should be some votes from the excellent baseball writers on the internet. You guys seem to know what’s what and who’s to say that your opinions are any crazier than the ‘traditional’ writers.
January 11, 2006 at 9:24 am
Thanks, Didi. It’s frustrating. I really don’t like to be a “hater” but the folks who vote on the HOF are making it very difficult.
January 11, 2006 at 9:44 am
I was reading Buster Olney’s column on ESPN today. Among the guys receiving votes:
Ozzie Guillen (5)
Walt Weiss (1)
Greg Jeffries (2)
Hal Morris (5)
Doug Jones (2)
What a joke. Do these guys even take their jobs seriously?
January 11, 2006 at 10:12 am
Hal Morris? Wow.
The amusing part about Jones, of course, is that he is #1 on Sutter’s list of similar pitchers:
http://www.baseball-reference......br01.shtml
January 11, 2006 at 12:37 pm
Sometimes a writer will vote for a player as a favor, knowing that there’s no chance he’ll make the Hall. Hal Morris was a popular man in Cincinnati, what’s the harm if a few writers who were touched by his generosity give him a vote? It’s like voting for Pat Paulsen for president. Doesn’t hurt anything, makes the player feel better for not being shut out.
Sutter didn’t last long enough and was fading the last three years, which makes him different from Kirby Puckett. At his peak, damn, what a peak. 327 ERA+?
I knock Tommy John out, too. The Hall should recognize him and his surgical team, just not in the player section.
I’d go for Blyleven and Gossage. Trammell doesn’t have enough great seasons for my taste. In an era of not-many two-way shortstops, he was a good one, but I don’t think the Hall should adjust downward that way.
January 11, 2006 at 12:46 pm
Kind of interesting. Below is a lineup of the the #1 most similar player for each Padres position player (assuming Mark Bellhorn is our second baseman) according to baseball-reference.
Roberts - Alex Cole
Bellhorn - Ted Lepcio (60’s Boston infielder)
Giles - Hack Wilson (#3 is Bobby Abreau)
Cameron - Jose Cruz Jr.
Klesko - Danny Tartabull
Castilla - Matt Williams
Greene - Bobby Crosby
Mirabelli - Rod Barajas
Lots of cool comparisons there. I think I’d take Matt Williams, Rod Barajas, and Lepcio (one of my Dad’s favorite players). Tartabull seems like the most similar to me. Thoughts?
January 11, 2006 at 1:26 pm
Interesting list, Jesse. One drawback of sim scores is that they don’t adjust for park. Castilla’s career OPS+ is 96. The next lowest on his list of comps is Travis Fryman, at 103.
The Klesko/Tartabull comp is a good one. I also like Klesko’s #2 guy, David Justice.
Cameron has some weird guys show up on his list. Cruz and Dwayne Murphy I totally understand, but Pete Incaviglia and Candy Maldonado? I am trying to picture either of them in center field.
January 11, 2006 at 1:38 pm
I haven’t noticed a comment on this today:
In the paper they had a short article on the Padres official signing of Shawn Estes right below a listing of ticket increases at Petco.
John Moores, you are hilarious! You almost had me there with…what? He’s serious? For the love of Archi Cianfrocco…
January 11, 2006 at 1:39 pm
Inky didn’t walk nearly as much as Cameron. That’s an odd comp even as a hitter.
I got excited when Jose Cruz showed up as Cameron’s top comp. But it’s Junior. Senior was a heck of a player masked by the Astrodome. Great defender, career 120 OPS+.
January 11, 2006 at 1:54 pm
From Baseball Analyst:
Josh Barfield - 2B - San Diego Padres - 23 (MLB)
Introduction: Those with a Major League pedigree often tend to get advantages that others don’t, while also being forced to live in their father/brother’s shadow. Josh Barfield doesn’t really fit that stereotype, as he had to both earn his prospect status and the comparison to his father. A fourth-round pick in 2001, Barfield quietly played well in 2002 before exploding the next season in the California League. With 128 RBI’s and 122 strikeouts, Josh was seen as Jesse, the 2B version. A down year in AA tempered expectations, but Josh played well upon returning to a good offensive environment.
Skillset/Future: Josh seems to do everything well but make contact. In each of his now four minor league seasons, Barfield has reached the triple digits in strikeouts. This creates the necessity for high BABIPs, which he has managed in three of four seasons, including a .363 clip in 2005. However, it’s unlikely this will continue at the Major League level, and as a result, his batting average should dip considerably. Good thing that Barfield’s plate discipline has gradually improved, and even with a .250 batting average, he should manage an OBP of about .320. Josh will always have more power than the average second baseman, so it’s too bad he’ll be playing in PETCO Park, which will turn plenty of home runs into doubles. Both his baserunning and defense, which we were both once skeptical of, are average skills. An offseason Mark Loretta trade paves the way for Barfield to start at second, where he is an underdog (but candidate) for NL ROY.
January 11, 2006 at 1:59 pm
Also in Baseball Analyst:
Carillo and Kottaras. Follow the link and search for Padres.
http://baseballanalysts.com/ar....._75_ho.php
January 11, 2006 at 2:35 pm
How did Will Clark fall off the ballot?
January 11, 2006 at 2:45 pm
It’s like the Baseball Analysts writer doesn’t even know who Carrillo is. 16 walks in 56 innings is hardly sporadic control, especially when hooked to 10Ks per 9. Those numbers include a couple of bad appearances with Elsinore when he was gassed. He reached AA six weeks into his pro career. He’s better now than 3 of the pitchers who will be on the Padre staff on Opening Day. That’s not one of the best 75 minor league prospects?
I have some of the same concerns about Barfield, though. Batting average is a flaky beast. It’ll take a lot of power to make up the 40 points of OBP he’ll lose to Loretta.
January 11, 2006 at 3:10 pm
RBW,
Agree with you about Will Clark. Next to Sutter getting in, Clark’s falling off the ballot was my biggest disappointment about the voting. I loved watching that guy play; he was my favorite non-Padre for years. And tho’ he’s probably not Hall-worthy, he deserved more respect from the voters.
January 11, 2006 at 3:28 pm
A friend and I have been talking about Clark today. I was surprised he was that good for that long; I remember him more as someone who faded in mid-career. Consistently well over 100 OPS+. The lack of big HR seasons doomed him from HoF consideration, but he was a really good player for 15 years.
January 11, 2006 at 3:30 pm
Will Clark had the sixth best career at first base in MLB history (using Davenport’s MVP Score). That’s not good enough?
Gehrig and Foxx are in a class by themselves, but Clark is right there with Murray, Greenber, Connor, Brouthers and Mize.
January 11, 2006 at 3:30 pm
*Greenberg
January 11, 2006 at 3:30 pm
Even just the intro to this article about Sutter & HOF is interesting … http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=4703
January 11, 2006 at 8:35 pm
TW, I’m surprised at your dismissal of Trammell. How would enshrining a guy who would be among the top 15 offensive SS in the Hall be adjusting downward? For example, if you compare Tramm to those already in, he’s 12th in OPS+. He has the counting stats, too: 13th in R, 10th in H, 8th in 2B, 4th in HR, and 10th in RBI.
As to great seasons, he has four of over 10 WARP3, one of which was over 13, two more of over 8 and two more of at least 7.5, that’s as many as 8 great seasons, depending on where you cut off your interpretation of WARP.
I think he’s a definite HOF SS.
January 12, 2006 at 6:40 am
Pat, Trammell’s career also includes 11 seasons of below 100 OPS+. 3 of those did happen before he was old enough to drink, so he shouldn’t be penalized for them.
That’s 9 seasons where his OPS+ was above-average, peaking at 155 with several 130s. I’d say 6 great, 3 very good, 1 average, and 7 below-average seasons after age 21.
I’d be willing to dilute the weighting of his last 3 seasons when he was just hanging around (OPS+ 85, 81, 35), but then you’d have to subtract the hits he got in those years.
6 great seasons isn’t enough for me. It’s on the cusp. Bill James likes him a lot (#9 SS of all time), and I respect James. Trammell is the sort of guy the Hall consistently underrates, someone who did a lot of things well but didn’t do any one thing spectacularly.
January 12, 2006 at 8:01 am
But you’re overlooking the fact he played a premium defensive position and played it very well. We’re not talking about a corner IF or corner OF, but a SS. Even in some of those seasons where his offense was below average, he still was a very productive player due to his defensive contribution, which is why I mentioned his WARP numbers.
For example, in 1981 and 1982 his OPS+ was in the 90’s, but his WARP3 numbers were 7.6 and 7.5, both of which are very good to great. In 1985 his OPS+ was just 90, but he brought up his WARP3 to 6.9, a very good season at least. I think looking solely at his up and down offense is not the best way to evaluate someone who played up the middle defensively, ymmv.
January 12, 2006 at 8:57 am
I’m not overlooking his playing short, I’m just not weighting it as heavily as you do.
WARP bothers me a bit, because it’s replacement level for that season. If your competition stinks that year, your WARP goes up.
But he did end up with more Win Shares than Larkin and Reese. I wouldn’t have suspected that. He blows Joe Tinker away. So okay, put him in.
January 12, 2006 at 9:23 am
OT: Lima claims “misunderstanding”…
http://msn.foxsports.com/other/story/5241842
January 12, 2006 at 12:22 pm
“I’m not overlooking his playing short, I’m just not weighting it as heavily as you do.”
Fair enough. Interesting point about WARP; however, at least in theory WARP3 is adjusted for “all time.” I’m sure it could still be distorted as you describe, but unllikely to be misleading over the course of a career; wouldn’t you think?
How do WS stack up as an evaluation tool versus something like WARP? I’m really not familiar with how they are calculated.
“He blows Joe Tinker away. So okay, put him in.”
I’m glad you came around.
January 12, 2006 at 3:23 pm
Not familiar with how WS are calculated? Should be able to do it on the back of an envelope:
http://www.baseballgraphs.com/.....#sharecalc
Did I mention it would be a very large envelope?
January 12, 2006 at 4:04 pm
LOL! Thanks Geoff.
January 12, 2006 at 4:54 pm
OT: Pads have signed Alan Embree. This one’s not on the Internet just yet. It’s a minor-league deal with a ST invite.
January 12, 2006 at 5:13 pm
UT is reporting it now:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....mbree.html
Now we have someone to relieve Estes.
Not a bad guy to take a flier on, maybe he’ll bounce back.
January 12, 2006 at 5:58 pm
2005 was not kind to the 35-year-old Allen Embree … http://www.baseball-reference......al01.shtml … perhaps he’ll get a spot on the Beavers?