2005 in Review - Relief Pitchers, Part 1
Mon, Dec 26, 2005
by Geoff Young
I hope everyone had an excellent Christmas. I don’t know about you, but I’ll be digging my way out from under the leftovers for a while.
Meantime, we can talk about relievers.
Trevor Hoffman, as usual, picked up the saves, but it was Scott Linebrink who anchored the Padres bullpen in 2005. Akinori Otsuka and Rudy Seanez were featured prominently in supporting roles. Chris Hammond held up the back end during the first half of the season, with rookie Clay Hensley picking up the slack in the second half.
[Previous entries in this series: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | SP (1) | SP (2) | SP (3)]
| ERA | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | HR/9 | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres relief pitchers | 3.49 | 1.311 | 8.40 | 3.40 | 7.88 | 0.71 | .247 | .316 | .370 |
| MLB starting pitchers | 6 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 4 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, top 10; yellow, middle 10; red, bottom 10. |
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The Padres had one of the best bullpens in baseball in 2005. As a group, they finished toward the top of most statistical categories. No team’s relief corps was tougher to homer against than the Padres’. Petco Park no doubt deserves some of the credit for this, but so also does Kevin Towers for assembling a very tough group of relievers on a budget.
Scott Linebrink
| ERA | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | HR/9 | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2.14 | 187 | 1.036 | 6.54 | 2.79 | 8.89 | 0.86 | .209 | .278 | .342 |
| 2005 | 1.83 | 210 | 1.059 | 6.72 | 2.81 | 8.55 | 0.49 | .209 | .273 | .312 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend. |
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Expectations
From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:
Claimed off waivers from the Astros in late May 2003, Linebrink has developed into one of the better setup men in the NL and serves as an example of how “small market” ballclubs can improve themselves without taking a huge financial hit.
Positives
- Proved that 2004 was no fluke, delivering a remarkably similar performance.
- Became even stingier with the long ball.
Negatives
- Worked 10 fewer innings, but that could also be a positive in the long run; no real negatives.
Outlook
Since joining the Padres, Linebrink has posted a 2.23 ERA over 189 appearances. Among big-league pitchers who have worked 200 or more innings during that same period, only the Yankees’ Mariano Rivera and the Angels’ Francisco Rodriguez have lower ERAs. Linebrink’s supporting numbers are solid as well, and there is little doubt that he could close for any team in baseball. With Trevor Hoffman re-signing, however, Linebrink will be asked to serve again as one of the top setup men in the game. All indications are that he’ll continue to provide the Padres with a dominant late-inning presence and a good insurance policy in case something should happen to the aging Hoffman.
Akinori Otsuka
| ERA | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | HR/9 | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 1.75 | 230 | 1.060 | 6.52 | 3.03 | 10.13 | 0.70 | .199 | .266 | .305 |
| 2005 | 3.59 | 107 | 1.420 | 7.90 | 4.88 | 8.62 | 0.43 | .234 | .336 | .328 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. Color key: green, positive trend; red, negative trend. |
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Expectations
From my season preview over at Baseball Think Factory:
Otsuka owned the eighth inning, pacing the NL with 34 holds and limiting the opposition to a paltry .199/.266/.305. He basically turned hitters into Russ Ortiz (.206/.262/.299 career). With Otsuka’s stuff, command, and presence, he could close for a lot of clubs. In San Diego, he’ll have to be content to rack up the holds and let Hoffman seal the deal.
Positives
- Decreased his home run rate.
- When on his game, he was still as fun as ever to watch pitch.
Negatives
- Severe rise in walks and drop in strikeouts.
- Became much easier to hit.
- Poor second half (4.62 ERA after All-Star break with 6.04 BB/9, vs 2.89 ERA and 4.10 BB/9 before the break).
- Huge home/road splits (1.23 ERA at Petco, 6.92 away from it), although much of this can be blamed on two atrocious outings at Arizona; take away those appearances, in which he surrendered 11 earned runs in just 1 1/3 innings, and his road ERA drops to a respectable 3.28.
Outlook
Otsuka struggled with command in his sophomore season, and really tailed off in the second half. Passed by Scott Linebrink in the pecking order and, later, rookie Clay Hensley, Otsuka became expendable and was dealt with Adam Eaton to the Texas Rangers in the deal that brought Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez to San Diego. Many analysts will look at Otsuka’s extreme home/road splits from 2005 and jump to the conclusion that he can’t possibly succeed in the tougher pitching environment of Arlington. I’ll dispute this notion for two reasons. First, as noted above, Otsuka’s road woes are attributable mostly to two appearances at the ex-BOB. Second, Otsuka relies heavily on deception. He features a funky delivery that makes it difficult for hitters to pick up the ball out of his hand, and his out pitch is a slider with such tremendous downward movement that it often is mistaken for a splitter. In coming to a league where most batters haven’t seen these up close and personal, Otsuka should regain the advantage he enjoyed on first arriving in North America. Until hitters learn to recognize and lay off the slider, Otsuka will enjoy considerable success at their expense. Look for a strong first half, with a possible late season fade.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
December 26, 2005 at 2:48 pm
Nice analysis Geoff. I agree with your Aki assesment. Even more than his delivery I think his nasty slider will baffle the AL like it did the NL when in 2004. It didn’t seem to lose it’s effectiveness last year, he just lost some command of the pitch. If hitters recognize the pitch and know it’s not going to be a strike they can sit on his mediocre fastball, just like when Trevor can’t get the change over for a strike.
I’m actually worried about the bullpen this year. Trevor will likely be ok and Linebrink will be lights out again but after that it’s all question marks.
Looking forward to part 2 with Seanez and Hammond.
December 26, 2005 at 3:02 pm
Thanks, Anthony. This has been a fun series to research and write. It’s true that there are a lot of question marks, but remember that Aki and Linebrink were question marks two years ago, as were Seanez and Hammond/Hensley last year. I’m very intrigued by the acquisitions of Andrade and Sikorski, and I have a pretty good feeling about the bullpen going forward. Whether that feeling is justified reamins to be seen, but hey, it’s the holidays so everything looks good right now.
December 26, 2005 at 4:12 pm
I’m not too worried about the bullpen either. We have the core of it back in Linebrink and Hoffman, and possibly Hensley. Other than that you’re left with replacing aging middle relievers like Aki, Seanez and Hammond. While the arms we’ve picked up do not have the same sort of name recognition as these three, I wouldn’t be surprised if they come close to, or even match, the performance. Frankly, I just don’t think middle relievers are that hard to come by, nor difficult to replace.
December 27, 2005 at 10:18 am
Just when you thought it couldn’t get weirder than Loretta-for-Mirabelli:
Jeff Reardon, one of the top relief pitchers in history, blamed medication for depression after his arrest for a jewelry store robbery.
Police said Tuesday that the 50-year-old Reardon, retired since 1994 and sixth in career saves, walked into Hamilton Jewelers at the Gardens Mall on Monday and handed an employee a note saying he had a gun and the store was being robbed.
Reardon, who starred with the Montreal Expos, Minnesota Twins and Boston Red Sox, fled the store with an undisclosed amount of cash. Police found him at a nearby restaurant, recovered the stolen money and charged him with armed robbery.
Lt. David O’Neill said Reardon did not have a gun and offered no resistance when he was handcuffed.
“He said it was the medication that made him do it and that he was sorry,” O’Neill said.
He said Reardon has lived in the city for more than 20 years and has never caused any problems.
Reardon made a brief appearance in court Tuesday and was to be released on $5,000 bail, said his attorney, Mitchell Beers.
He said Reardon had a 20-year-old son who died of a drug overdose in February 2004, which “has been very difficult for him and his family,” and has been on medication for depression. Reardon, who is married and has two other children, also underwent a heart angioplasty last week and has been taking medication for that.
“He asked me to apologize to his fans and friends,” Beers said. “This bizarre incident is completely uncharacteristic of Jeff Reardon.”
He said Reardon, who made more than $11.5 million in his career, according to baseball-reference.com, was not having financial problems.
December 27, 2005 at 11:26 am
I feel bad for the guy. He’s obviously got some issues. They showed the police picture of Reardon, and he didn’t look so good.
December 27, 2005 at 11:29 am
Princeton newspaper talks about Chris Young:
http://www.zwire.com/site/news.....&rfi=6
December 27, 2005 at 1:51 pm
“I forgot. I forgot armed robbery was against the law. I forgot.”
–Steve Martin
A potential defense for Reardon.