Five Players to Watch

by Geoff Young on May 08, 2006 (21) Comments

Jake Peavy

The line from Peavy’s start Saturday night looks okay, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Although he allowed just one run over six innings, Peavy was working out of jams most of the game. He didn’t dominate the way he has much of the past two seasons. In fact, we haven’t really seen vintage Peavy yet in 2006. It’s only seven starts, so way too early to panic, but check this out:

Year H/9 K/9 P/PA
2004 7.90 9.36 3.87
2005 7.18 9.58 3.89
2006 8.74 6.15 4.32

One of the problems is that he hasn’t been missing as many bats as in the past. I first noticed this in his April 25 start against Arizona, where hitters were fouling off pitches like crazy. Usually guys wouldn’t even be making contact on a lot of those. Note the number of pitches per plate appearance in the above table.

Again, beware of the small sample size. We’re not making conclusions yet, just tracking a trend. Peavy apparently has been working with pitching coach Darren Balsley on smoothing out his delivery, so hopefully that will pay dividends. If you’re looking for optimism along those lines, you could do worse than recall that Peavy and Balsley have been working together since both were at Class A Lake Elsinore in 2001.

Woody Williams

I have to admit, I didn’t think Williams had anything left in him. It’s unreasonable to expect a guy to bounce back like this at age 39, but there he is doing it.

In Sunday’s start against Chicago, Williams struggled early, allowing three runs on six hits over the first four innings. But he finished strong, blanking the Cubs over the final four frames on just two hits.

Williams is starting to mix in the knuckleball a bit more. And although Aramis Ramirez hammered an errant knuckler into the left field bleachers on Sunday, Williams also struck out Todd Walker on the pitch. It isn’t a show-stopper, but the knuckleball can be an effective weapon for Williams, and it’s fun to see him gaining confidence in his ability to throw it.

Rob Bowen

I am still baffled by the fact that teams exposed this guy to waivers. I’ve liked Bowen for a while, but the early returns are even better than I’d expected. He looks like a good handler of pitchers, and so far he’s delivered quality at-bats.

We know about the walk-off homer to win Saturday night’s game, but he hit a ball even harder in his previous at-bat when he flied out to center in the seventh. And then on Sunday, Bowen drew a walk in his first trip to the plate after falling behind in the count, 0-2. He beat out a chopper to third his second time up (showing surprisingly good wheels), and then doubled deep into the gap in right-center before finally being retired in his final plate appearance.

It amazes me that something of value has to be given to get a stiff like Doug Mirabelli, but that a kid like Bowen can be plucked off the waiver wire. Hey, we’ll take it.

Josh Barfield

Yes, the plate discipline is an issue. We’ve known that for a long time. But the defense is better than advertised, and Barfield is doing some things that aren’t showing up in the box score (pardon the cliche, but in this case it’s true):

On Friday night Barfield drove in the game’s only run on a single to center in the 11th inning. The part I like (aside from winning the game, of course) is what Barfield said afterward about his at-bat against Cubs reliever Scott Williamson:

He was throwing that slider. It was his best pitch. I was looking for the slider.

Tim Flannery was going nuts over this on the postgame show, and I think with good reason. It doesn’t seem like a lot of rookies would (a) have the awareness to know what Williamson’s best pitch is and (b) have the confidence to sit on something other than a fastball in that situation. It’s only one at-bat, I know, but damn.

The other thing Barfield did that impressed me happened in Sunday’s contest. In the top of the first, with Dave Roberts on second, Barfield lined a single to right. Right fielder Jacque Jones airmailed a throw home (BTW, if it isn’t already, the book on Cubs outfielders should be to run early and often against them). Barfield correctly read that it would miss the cutoff man and easily cruised into second. Then, after a Brian Giles sacrifice fly scored Roberts, Barfield scampered to third on a passed ball that didn’t get more than 10-15 feet away from Cubs catcher Michael Barrett.

I have been so impressed with Barfield’s presence out on the field. Sure, he’s got things to work on, but he’s also got things to work with. And if the progress he’s made defensively at second over the years is any indication, Barfield is capable of improving as needed.

Khalil Greene

The batting average is low (.226 after going 4-for-4 on Sunday), and he’s striking out a lot. But I believe that Greene’s more patient approach at the plate will pay dividends in the long run, as he starts to drive more of the good pitches he sees as a result of working the count.

The first step was to make pitchers work harder, and he appears to have mastered that. His 4.22 pitches per plate appearances is good for eighth in the NL, ahead of guys like Jason Bay, Albert Pujols, J.D. Drew, Miguel Cabrera, Luis Gonzalez, and others. It’s also well above the 3.75 pitches per plate appearance Greene saw in 2004 and 2005.

We’re seeing an increase in walks (17 in just 30 games this year vs 25 in 121 last year) and walks per plate apparance (.138 in 2006, up from .053 in 2005). But we’ve also seen a lot more full counts to Greene. Last season he worked the count full just 41 times (.086 per PA); so far this season he’s done it 25 times (.203 per PA). That’s greater than the difference between Mike Matheny (.083 full counts per PA over 2003-2005) and Jim Thome (.187 over the same stretch).

Phase two of the strategy involves making solid contact after working the count in his favor. Greene hasn’t been doing that with consistency yet, although he doubled twice and singled twice in four at-bats on Sunday. Both doubles, incidentally, came close to leaving the yard.

The bad news is that Greene has more strikeouts (26) than hits (24) this year. The good news is that despite a batting average that is 30 points below his career norm, his OPS is just about the same as always. This suggests that if he continues with a more disciplined approach and is able to make more consistent contact, Greene should be able to return to 2004 levels or possibly exceed them.

If Greene can add a new dimension to his offensive game without losing anything from what he’s already got, he could be a force. It’s still early, and he hasn’t done it yet, but I’m excited about the possibility. If nothing else, it’s fun to watch him spit on “decent” pitches in the knowledge that he’ll probably get a better one to hit later in the at-bat. Guys still can be aggressive at the plate, they just need to make the pitcher work a little before unloading.

IGD: Padres vs Cubs (7 May 06)

by Geoff Young on May 07, 2006 (18) Comments

first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Woody Williams (2-1, 3.06 ERA) vs Angel Guzman (0-1, 5.91 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN

I said, train kept a rollin’ all night long
Train kept a rollin’ all night long
Train kept a rollin’ all night long
Train kept a rollin’ all night long
With a heave, and a ho
But I just couldn’t tell her so, no, no, no

The Padres have won 28 of their last 33 games played in the month of May. Keep that train a rollin’!

IGD: Cubs @ Padres (6 May 06)

by Geoff Young on May 06, 2006 (10) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Sean Marshall (2-0, 3.45 ERA) vs Jake Peavy (2-3, 4.58 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN

I don’t want to jinx anything, but I’m sure enjoying this month so far. I’ll be out at the game tonight, so once again you are on your own. Go Padres!

IGD: Cubs @ Padres (5 May 06)

by Geoff Young on May 05, 2006 (31) Comments

first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chan Ho Park (1-1, 5.34 ERA) vs Carlos Zambrano (0-2, 5.35 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN

I will be dining at Molly’s in celebration of my birthday, so you’re on your own tonight as the Padres return home and look to extend their winning streak to six against the Cubs.

Friday Links (5 May 06)

by Geoff Young on May 05, 2006 (25) Comments

Man, if you needed an excuse to get behind Clay Hensley, I’d say that Thursday night’s start against the Dodgers is as good as any. Dude gets hit in the back of the head by a broken bat in the second inning, and after a few minutes’ delay to stop the bleeding, goes out there and spins six shutout innings. I love this bit from the San Diego Union-Tribune:

The blow drove Hensley to his knees near the rubber, and Padres trainers initially advised Hensley against continuing. But he retired 10 of the next 11 hitters.

“I was kind of dizzy,” Hensley said. “But that’s kind of expected when you get hit with a bat. I didn’t feel like it was a problem. I’m just glad the barrel got me instead of the jagged edge.”

And thus a folk hero is born. I was impressed enough to go out and sponsor Hensley’s page at Baseball-Reference.com.

So, on to the links:

  • Brocail given clearance to resume throwing after two angioplasties (Yahoo!). Great to see right-hander Doug Brocail on the comeback trail after getting a wakeup call in March. The bullpen has been surprisingly strong in his absence, but good arms are always a welcome addition.
  • Thanks to Will Carroll for giving me a heads-up on the April 29 episode of Baseball Prospectus Radio, in which he interviews Padres’ sports therapist Kelly Calabrese, who bore the brunt of some comments by a very silly man not long ago. The interview is about halfway through the show. Calabrese is very well spoken in talking about the impact of Keith Hernandez’ chauvinistic remarks on advancing women in sports, as well as her day-to-day duties keeping players healthy and helping them rehabilitate from injuries if needed. Among other things, we learn that she works about 11 hours on an average game day and that she sat in on Ryan Klesko’s shoulder surgery. I’m thinking if she can sit in the operating room, she can sit in the dugout. Trailblazers always encounter resistance; it’s the nature of blazing trails.
  • Franchises at Birth: The Expos and the Padres (Part Three: 1975-1980) (Hardball Times). Reader Pat points us to the final installment in Steve Treder’s look back at the Padres’ early years. I had completely forgotten that George Hendrick and Mike Hargrove once played in San Diego.
  • Jonathan has a couple of interviews up over at PDX Beavers, one of Salt Lake pitching coach Charles Nagy and one of Portland right-hander Brian Sikorski. Apparently Sikorski has made some adjustments under Beavers’ pitching coach Gary Lance to keep the ball down in the zone, which wasn’t happening in spring training. All I know is that Sikorski is piling up some impressive strikeout numbers at Triple-A, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him up with the big club at some point.
  • In their May 4 Daily Dish, Baseball America recaps right-hander Cesar Carrillo’s last start for Mobile. The scout they spoke with liked his changeup and curve, but said that he “didn’t have very good command of his fastball, and left some pitches up in the zone.”

Finally, on a personal note, I turn 37 today. So far it feels a lot like 36; then again, I’m still on my first cup of coffee.

Happy Friday, and let’s keep that winning streak going!

IGD: Padres @ Dodgers (4 May 06)

by Geoff Young on May 04, 2006 (35) Comments

first pitch: 7:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Clay Hensley (1-2, 5.48 ERA) vs Brett Tomko (3-1, 4.20 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN

Almost seven years ago, Brett Tomko was involved in one of my absolute favorite Padres moments. In the third inning of a game at Qualcomm Stadium, with Tomko on the mound for the Reds, Eric Owens executed a straight steal of home. The photo in the linked article (no, not the one of R*ben R*vera) doesn’t begin to do it justice.

I know he wasn’t all that a great player, but I miss Owens.

Vulture, Thy Name Is Cassidy

by Geoff Young on May 04, 2006 (10) Comments

Not to pick on the guy, because he’s been unbelievable out of the ‘pen for the Padres so far this year, but was there ever a pitcher less deserving of a win than Scott Cassidy in Wednesday night’s game against the Dodgers? Chris Young throws 106 pitches before departing with two outs in the seventh and a 4-1 lead. Cassidy throws six pitches, one of which leaves the yard and ties the game, thus denying Young the victory. Josh Barfield swats a two-run homer in top of the next inning to reclaim the lead, and the Pads go on to win, 11-5.

The least effective pitcher for the winnng team — the only guy who actually surrendered the lead — is credited with the victory. This proves yet again that baseball, like life, ain’t fair.

Also, fire Dave Magadan. ;-)

IGD: Padres @ Dodgers (3 May 06)

by Geoff Young on May 03, 2006 (32) Comments

first pitch: 7:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (2-2, 3.41 ERA) vs Jae Seo (1-2, 5.70 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN

The Padres are coming off a two-game sweep of the Giants at San Francisco. The Friars won Tuesday afternoon’s contest, 5-3, behind Woody Williams and three relievers.

One of those relievers, right-hander Scott Linebrink, was part of a march toward history. I’m speaking, of course, of the all-time home run record.

In the eighth inning, with two out and nobody on, Linebrink delivered a full count fastball to the Giants left fielder. The ball was well struck and ended up on the other side of the center field fence for a homer.

Linebrink has now allowed three bombs on the season, and a whopping 30 on the career, which places him just 475 behind Hall of Famer Robin Roberts. It probably won’t happen this year, and it may not happen ever, but at least Linebrink can take comfort in knowing that each home run he allows brings him closer to that coveted 505 mark. Go get ‘em, Scotty!

Anyway, enough with the history lesson. Now it’s time to focus on the Dodgers and extend that winning streak to four.

Go Padres!

Management by Baseball

by Geoff Young on May 03, 2006 (8) Comments

Management by Baseball
By Jeff Angus
Collins: 272 pp., $22.95 hardcover

Don’t let the title fool you. Although this book is aimed at actual and would-be managers, the insights can be of use to anyone who has to deal with managers, which is just about everyone.

Using lessons learned from field and general managers in the game of baseball, Angus walks us through the four components of effective management: the ability to manage mechanics, talent, oneself, and change. He cites numerous examples, including, among others, Pie Traynor’s refusal to rest his regulars down the stretch in 1938 and costing his Pirates the pennant, Mike Scioscia’s emphasis on aggressive baserunning to compensate for his club’s poor on-base skills (an approach that helped lead to a World Series title in 2002), and outfielder Doug Glanville’s significant off-field contributions to the Phillies:

As a degreed engineer with a background in transportation planning, he went to his team’s front office to give them unsolicited counseling in transportation topics around the design and delivery of their new stadium.

The genius of this book lies in its ability to weave together two seemingly unrelated topics with grace. On one level, the tale of Babe Ruth’s conversion from pitcher to hitter provides a fascinating glimpse at history and perhaps baseball’s most iconic figure. On another level, the reasons behind Red Sox manager Ed Barrow’s making such a radical move deliver a powerful business lesson: the ability to adapt to changing conditions is paramount to an organization’s success (in the case of Ruth, Boston had a greater need in the outfield than on the mound).

Although the baseball anectodes in Management by Baseball stand well on their own, Angus is careful to point out “real-world” lessons that will benefit those of us who do not make our living on or around a diamond. He talks, among many other things, about the importance of performance metrics in fields that lie well beyond the confines of a ballpark, how to deal with “troublesome” personalities in an organization (e.g., David Wells), and the “six deadly skins” — destructive behavior patterns in a manager that can undermine his or her efforts.

One suggestion for future editions is to include a subject index. Although the book is well constructed and easy to follow, readers may find themselves wanting to refer to specific anectodes based on a particular situation in their management experience and remembering only the names of the players involved.

This, however, is a minor quibble and certainly doesn’t detract from the book in its current form. If anything, it speaks to the potential utility of this book even after first reading. I can’t speak for folks who don’t follow baseball, but fans of the game who manage, aspire to manage, or are themselves managed will find Management by Baseball an enjoyable and instructive addition to their library.

Learn more about Jeff Angus and Management by Baseball at cmdr-scott.blogspot.com.

IGD: Padres @ Giants (2 May 06)

by Geoff Young on May 02, 2006 (42) Comments

first pitch: 12:35 p.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Woody Williams (1-1, 3.04 ERA) vs Matt Morris (2-1, 5.19 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN

Big thanks to Giants starter Jamey Wright for lighting a fire under the Padres’ collective posterior Monday night. In case you missed it, Jake Peavy nicked Barry Bonds on the right hand in the third with a pitch that actually wasn’t very far inside. Wright responded in the fourth by planting one on Brian Giles’ tuchus. The Padres responded in the best way possible, torching Wright for seven runs in the inning en route to a 10-4 laugher.

After a miserable April, any help is much appreciated. Thanks again, Mr. Wright.

The series concludes today (what? we just got here!) with a couple of veterans on the mound. Despite not winning a job in the rotation out of spring training, Woody Williams has been the Padres’ most reliable starter in the early going.

If Woody is going to bust out the knuckler today, it will be without knuckleball catcher Doug Mirabelli, who has been shipped back to Boston for the younger, more versatile Josh Bard. The Pads also received minor-league right-handed reliever Cla Meredith, plus cash or a PTBNL. Meredith is no Steve Andrade (who made his big-league debut with the Royals last night), but he could come in handy at some point.

Unfortunately for the Padres and Mirabelli, the latter’s only usable skill is the ability to catch Tim Wakefield. Given that Wakefield doesn’t pitch for the Padres, there wasn’t much call for that particular skill in San Diego. Exit Mirabelli.

With Bard and Rob Bowen now in the fold, the Padres have assembled a nice little contingency plan in case Mike Piazza doesn’t return next year and George Kottaras isn’t ready to take over every day. It’s funny how they’ve set themselves up pretty much the same way they did last season, when Miguel Olivo and David Ross were brought in as insurance policies in case Ramon Hernandez left for greener pastures. Of course, Hernandez did leave, the irony being that Olivo and Ross quickly followed.

Ah well, there’s plenty of time to speculate about next year’s catching situation. For now, let’s keep up the winning ways and take the series in San Francisco.