Is it wrong to complain about winning more games in the month of May than any other team in the big leagues? It may not be wrong, but it’s probably in poor taste. The only ways in which the Padres’ 19-10 record can be viewed in an unfavorable light are when we compare it to 2005′s ridiculous 22-6 record during the month and when we consider that the club began May 2006 with a 13-1 run.
But realistically, 22-6 and 13-1 aren’t reasonable benchmarks against which to judge success. And by most objective measures, the Padres had a fine month of May. Hey, it was a heckuva lot better than April.
So how, exactly, did the Pads do it? Let’s take a closer look.
Reach Base a Little, Run a Lot, Get Lucky
The Padres hit .268/.337/.422 during May. As usual, they were outhomered by the opposition (35-30), but the Friars enjoyed significant advantages in batting average and OBP.
Although they were just middle of the pack in drawing walks, no pitching staff in the NL surrendered fewer bases on balls (68) during May than the Padres. Consequently, the Pads drew 29 more walks than their opponents in 29 games, or one more per game. Put one more man on base a game than the other guy, and you increase your chances of winning.
The other impressive part of the equation comes in the fact that the Padres were very efficient during May. Among NL teams, only the Braves and the Dodgers scored more runs in the month, but both did so with much better overall batting numbers.
Despite being third in the league in runs scored, the Pads were just ninth in OPS and seventh in RC/27. The only other thing the Padres did well in May was steal bases (22 for 27, second to the Mets in the NL).
The Friars were efficient, yes. However, they probably were a little lucky as well. Luck, of course, often is a crucial component of winning. We don’t like to admit that, but it is true.
Pest at the Top and a Three-Headed Monster
Individually, leadoff hitter Dave Roberts, who has become a completely different player since joining the Padres, led the charge. Roberts, a fourth outfielder type throughout his career, continues to thrive in his hometown with regular playing time. This May was no exception, as he hit .326/.407/.495 during the month, with 10 stolen bases in 12 attempts. Roberts got himself into scoring position constantly and scored 23 runs in 23 games.
(As an aside, right-hander David Pauley is the only thing the Red Sox have left to show for the deal that brought Roberts to San Diego, and Pauley was shelled last week in his big-league debut. I mention this not to gloat but to remind myself how completely wrong I was about that trade.)
The other main source of offense in May was the catching tandem of Mike Piazza, Josh Bard, and Rob Bowen. Combined, they hit .341/.393/.652 in 132 at-bats, with 10 home runs. Piazza, as we know, came on the cheap, and Bard and Bowen ain’t making a lot of dough either.
As we’ve already discussed, the Padres have gotten better production out of their catchers than any other team in baseball. Through the first few days in June, they’re at 7.80 RC/27, which is a full run more than the second place Yankees (6.73). In May, all three backstops combined to put up numbers similar to those of Piazza alone in his prime. I’ll take that any day of the week.
One other player made a pretty solid contribution off the bench, and that is Geoff Blum. In just 40 at-bats, “Blummer” hit .450/.476/.625. He also mostly rode pine in favor of the increasingly useless Vinny Castilla, who was one of the few sore spots in May, hitting just .178/.231/.192 in 73 at-bats.
To put Castilla’s futility into perspective, consider that he had as many extra base hits (1) and RBI (2) in the month as did right-hander Jake Peavy. Castilla also drew fewer walks (3) than Ben Johnson, who received four free passes in nine May plate appearances. For the season, Castilla’s batting average, OBP, and SLG have all dipped below the career marks of Rey Ordonez (.246/.289/.310).
We can gripe about Castilla all year (or as long as Bruce Bochy runs him out there everyday, whichever comes first), but let’s finish on an up note. Brian Giles, steady as always, was the other batter to post an 800+ OPS in May, hitting .284/.389/.431 for the month.
It’s easy to critcize the deal that brought Giles to the Padres, but at the time, Jason Bay hadn’t shown anywhere near his current level of ability and the Pads desperately needed an elite offensive performer, which they got in Giles. It’s nice to think that we could have known that Bay would develop as he has or that the Pirates would have accepted someone else in lieu of him, but these are fantasies. Giles’ years of 35+ homer production are well behind him — heck, he may never hit 20 home runs in a season again — but the guy is a tough out, consistent, and a great presence on a ballclub (sorry, I haven’t figured out how to quantify that last one).
What the heck, now that I’ve gone into full ramble mode, I’ll mention Alan Drooz’ piece in the San Diego Union-Tribune suggesting that maybe now is the time to move Giles (hat tip to Gaslamp Ball). My personal feeling is that it’s going to be exceedingly difficult to deal Giles for someone who brings anywhere near as much to the table as does he.
It’s always fun to think of deals like Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir and fantasize that the Padres could move Giles for a young stud who will be part of the foundation for years to come. And if the Padres didn’t figure to be in the thick of a pennant race all summer, it might be even more fun to indulge in those fantasies.
But right now I’m a lot more interested in solving the third base problem. That’s why reader Jay’s question of whether Rob Bowen can play third base speaks to me more than any speculation about Giles’ future. Yeah, Bowen at third might be as much of a fantasy as a potential Giles deal, but at least it addresses a need and is something that could happen without the cooperation of any other organization.
Geez, how did we get here? I take a week off and my mind goes haywire. Moving on…
Who Are You, and What Have You Done with My Pitching Staff?
Ironic that pitching was supposed to be the weak point of this ballclub. In May, the Padres led all of baseball in ERA (3.58), WHIP (1.17), and BAA (.241). They were second in K/BB (2.94) third in OPS (707), and fourth in walks allowed (68). As with the offense, a little luck played a part, as the Pads’ DIPS of 4.11 was only seventh in the big leagues.
On an individual level, aside from the obligatory black hole at the back of the bullpen (aka Jiwon Browerton), only Alan Embree (4.91) posted an ERA over 4.10. Jon Adkins came up from Portland to join the ranks of relievers who materialized seemingly out of nowhere to pitch effectively for the Pads. When Woody Williams hit the DL, right-hander Mike Thompson took his place and did a pretty convincing imitation of the veteran.
Clay Hensley averaged 6 2/3 innings per start in May and notched an ERA below 3.00. Jake Peavy struck out 13 batters in one game and a franchise-record 16 in another. Chan Ho Park continued his resurgence, and the starter with the highest ERA in May, Chris Young, took a no-hitter into the eighth in his last start of the month (incidentally, he also took one into the sixth in his first start of June).
I don’t have much else to say about these guys. Almost without exception, they did a great job in May.
What Next?
As of today, June 4, the Padres find themselves 4 games out of first place despite a 30-26 record. Inexplicably, the NL West has become one of the toughest divisions in baseball. I’m still not convinced there’s a 90-win team among the lot, but it’s becoming more difficult for me to defend that position with each passing day.
For the Padres to continue to be a threat, they’ll need to do a few things. The first is to keep pitching the way they did in May. That will go a long way toward minimizing any other areas of weakness. The pitching was a little “lucky” last month, but some of the luck can be attributed to strong defense. So the Pads will need to continue to flash the leather to give their pitching staff every opportunity to remain “lucky” going forward.
On offense, the main challenge will be to keep the veterans healthy. That means regular rest for Roberts, and not overexposing any of the options behind the dish. I adore what the catchers have done, and I’d like to see their success continue. As a group, most likely they are playing over their heads. Then again, Bard and Bowen are young enough that some of this improvement may be real. Perhaps more importantly, both appear comfortable with their playing time and have proven capable of performing at a high level despite limited at-bats.
The one potential sticking point is third base. Castilla is done, but nobody is admitting it yet. Unfortunately he’s got a reputation as a clubhouse leader (and a nice guy — I don’t enjoy slamming him because he seems like the kind of player you’d like to have around your youngsters so long as he’s not hurting your team with his performance) and I fear that Bochy is going to wait until it’s too late to make a move with him. We talk about Justin Leone, but he’s no spring chicken and there’s no guarantee that he’d succeed if given the chance; beyond Leone, there aren’t many viable options, which is why the Bowen idea intrigues me.
I don’t know that there is an easy solution to the hot corner problem. And I fear that this may be the difference between winning the NL West and coming up just short.
I like to be right about stuff, but not always. This is one of those cases where I really hope I’m wrong. Does Castilla have a miracle left in him? I don’t think so. If not, can and will the Padres do anything to address the problem? (And I don’t mean acquiring Joe Randa.) I’m an optimist in most things, but I have a hard time envisioning positive outcomes to this situation.
That said, and because I hate finishing on a down note, 19 victories are in the books for May, and that’s more than anybody else can say.
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