IGD: Padres @ Rockies (18 Apr 06)

first pitch: 5:35 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Clay Hensley (0-1, 9.00 ERA) vs Josh Fogg (2-0, 4.76 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN.com

The Padres look to clinch a winning road trip with a victory this evening in Denver. If they do, it will be behind young right-hander Clay Hensley, who makes his first start of the season. After serving as one of the key setup men down the stretch in 2005, Hensley has gotten off to a rough start in the same role this year.

But with Dewon Brazelton reverting to form after a strong spring, Hensley gets the call. The good news is, he’s enjoyed great success as a starter in the minor leagues, posting a 3.60 ERA over 472.2 innings while averaging better than 7 K/9 every step of the way.

It would be nice if Hensley could make his first start of the season somewhere other than Coors Field. On the other hand, there is something to be said for throwing a guy into the fire and seeing how he responds. I don’t know why, but I have a good feeling about this one.

Established Win Shares

The Baseball Crank is putting together his annual division previews “using Established Win Shares Levels as a jumping-off point.” He’s reached the NL West and, like most folks, he isn’t real excited about the Padres this year.

One of the things I find interesting is that, despite the fact that the Padres are mostly older than they were last season, they are younger in a few key spots that will make a difference down the line. We know about Jake Peavy and Khalil Greene, of course. But I’m liking what I’ve seen out of Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Barfield (congrats on his first big-league homer Monday night at Colorado — 431 feet to left-center, not a Coors special), and Chris Young so far, and I have a sneaking suspicion that Clay Hensley just might be a solid contributor in the rotation.

Speaking of Gonzalez and Young, I know it’s early still, but does anyone feel a little bad for the Rangers on this one? Adam Eaton is a decent enough pitcher when healthy, and Akinori Otsuka is one of my all-time favorite Padres, but I’m not sure how you deal two building blocks for those guys. Honestly, and I’m not saying this just because the guy is hurt, I don’t understand how you deal Young straight up for Eaton.

Hey, we’ll take it.

I don’t know about you, but I’m starting to feel good about this team. Not great, but good — as in, .500 remains a distinct possibility and we’re finally seeing an influx of solid young talent that should help the club down the road. As I said throughout the winter, every move the Padres made this off-season suggested a 2007 target.

The beauty is that in a division as weak as the NL West looks to be this year, you don’t need to punt the present while building for the future. A return to the playoffs isn’t out of the question. If it happens, great. But if it doesn’t, the Friars are putting themselves in excellent position for next year.

But nobody’s ready to wait till then. Not just yet, anyway.

IGD: Padres @ Rockies (17 Apr 06)

first pitch: 5:35 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (1-0, 3.18 ERA) vs Jeff Francis (0-1, 7.20 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN.com

The Padres open a three-game series at Coors Field Monday afternoon in the last stop on their current road trip. After avoiding the sweep in Atlanta thanks to some late-inning heroics Sunday, the Friars look to Chris “More Cowbell” Young to keep the momentum going.

This will be Young’s first start in Denver, which has been a wrecking ground for many pitchers. However, Young is no stranger to extremely favorable hitting environments, having called Arlington home for his first two big-league seasons.

Also, and I’m not sure if the media has picked up on this yet, Young is 6’10″. I don’t know what bearing that has on anything, but I hear it constantly so I’ll assume it’s important.

The Pads still are struggling a bit on offense. Adrian Gonzalez, Brian Giles, and Dave Roberts are about the only guys hitting right now. Khalil Greene has cooled off after a fast start, although he’s still working deep into counts and putting good wood on the ball. On defense, the Padres are playing more “Things That Go Bump in the Outfield” than I’d like to see — Roberts, Greene, and Terrmel Sledge really need to sit down and have a good chat over tea and scones.

You’re welcome for that visual.

On the bright side, the pitching is starting to come around, and I’m actually feeling a little optimistic about the bullpen for the first time in a long time. Scott Cassidy has done well since his recall from Portland, and Alan Embree — occasional lapses in control notwithstanding — is looking solid in the early going.

So, sit back, relax, and watch the pelotas fly. If you can’t have baseball, you can have the next best thing — games at Coors Field. Go Padres!

Woody’s Knuckler

First off, what a great win on Sunday, and what a great way to do it. After those first two losses in Atlanta and being completely dominated by John Thomson for six innings, to overcome a 3-0 deficit late in the game and pull it out was huge. Now the Pads head to Denver for some Sillyball with a .500 record on the current road trip and a little momentum working for them.

Second, if you only saw the box score and noticed that Woody Williams struck out nine Braves, realize that plate umpire Phil Cuzzi’s strike zone was almost Greggian. Williams had some good stuff going — for the most part he located the fastball and curve pretty well, and mixed in a few knucklers (more on that in a bit) — but not as good as the punchouts would indicate.

Williams made a few bad pitches, notably a first pitch breaking ball to Andruw Jones that was crushed over the fence in left center in the second and a fastball out over the plate to Todd Pratt in the fourth hit so hard off the left field wall that he was held to a single (it was basically the same ball that Jeff Francouer had hit over the fence for a game-winning homer on Friday night, only about three feet lower). And Williams was in trouble for much of the second, third, and fourth innings. Still, he kept the Padres in the game and that’s all anyone is asking of him. If he can do that consistently, the Pads will be okay. Or at least better than we thought. Or something.

So, about the knuckleball. According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, Williams threw four of them. I only counted two, but his breaking ball had good movement on Sunday, so I may have gotten crossed up on a couple of those. The two that I saw were an 0-2 pitch to Marcus Giles in the first that he swung on and missed or tipped foul at the plate depending on who you believe. Cuzzi called it a foul ball, but Giles was running to first base on what he presumably thought was a dropped third strike. Either way, it was a good pitch and Williams followed it up by freezing Giles on a fastball for called strike three.

The other pitch I identified as a knuckler was a 1-2 offering to Wilson Betemit with two out in the third. It stayed up in the zone and completely handcuffed catcher Rob Bowen (making his first Padres start due to lower back stiffness on the part of resident knuckleball catcher Doug Mirabelli) for a passed ball. The pitch had some sick movement on it.

Speaking of Mirabelli, the television guys were talking a little about the history of Williams’ knuckler. Apparently it’s a pitch he’s been toying with for a very long time. Seems he and Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley were teammates in the Toronto system at Double-A Knoxville in the late-’80s, and Williams would throw him a few knucklers for grins during warmups. According to Padres broadcaster Matt Vasgersian, the Blue Jays even liked the pitch but wanted him to work on the change-up instead. Fast forward a decade and a half: Williams throws some knuckleballs to Mirabelli (formerly Tim Wakefield’s catcher in Boston) in a bullpen session, and Mirabelli’s quote is, “It’s so good, it’s unusable because I can’t catch it.”

I don’t know about that, but I do know that the knuckleball looked pretty good, and it made his fastball look even better. Both of those facts give Williams a chance to keep the Padres in games. And really, what more could you want?

T-Shirts Have Arrived!

Hey, just a quick note to let you know the brand spankin’ new T-shirts are here. And unlike last year’s version, which encouraged complete strangers to walk up to you and ask you an awkward question, these allow you to be your regular, antisocial self. Sweet!

Ducksnorts T-shirt

“That’s great, Geoff; where do I get one?”

Why, at the Ducksnorts Online Store, of course.

Now back to your regularly scheduled lives…

IGD: Padres @ Braves (16 Apr 06)

first pitch: 10:05 a.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Woody Williams (1-1, 4.50 ERA) vs John Thomson (0-0, 2.08 ERA)

Happy Easter! If you’re doing the egg thing, be sure to remember where you’ve hidden them all.

IGD: Padres @ Braves (15 Apr 06)

first pitch: 4:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Jake Peavy (1-1, 7.36 ERA) vs John Smoltz (0-1, 6.75 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN.com

Tough loss Friday. The Padres had plenty of opportunities to win the game and they let it slip away. You really have to score at least one run when there are two on and one out against a guy like Chris Reitsma, who isn’t a bad pitcher but who also isn’t someone who strikes a lot of fear into opponents’ hearts. He’s beatable. Unfortunately, Dave Roberts and Terrmel Sledge didn’t have real good at-bats at the end and the Padres couldn’t pull it out, giving the Braves their fifth win (and reliever Oscar Villarreal his fourth win) in 11 games.

On Saturday, Padres ace Jake Peavy looks to rebound from one of his worst starts as a big-leaguer in a showdown against Atlanta’s John Smoltz. Last Sunday against the Rockies, Peavy coughed up eight runs, marking the third time in his career that he had allowed eight or more in a game, and the first since August 18, 2002, at Montreal. The good news is, Peavy has come back strong after both previous implosions:

Date Opp IP H R ER HR BB SO
7/26/02 @ Ari 4.1 7 9 8 2 3 2
8/1/02 @ ChN 6 8 2 2 0 3 5
8/18/02 @ Mtl 3.1 9 8 8 3 1 3
8/23/02 vs Fla 7 7 2 2 0 0 8
4/9/06 vs Col 4 11 8 8 2 1 2
4/15/06 @ Atl ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
Stats courtesy of Baseball Musings Day by Day Database.

Padres starters enter Saturday’s contest with a whopping 8.06 ERA. If you’re looking for some perspective, a nine-inning shutout from Peavy would bring that all the way down to 6.71. On the bright side, one National League team’s starters have a higher ERA (8.17) and that is the Braves, who also are the only team in the league without a victory from its starting pitchers. Eleven games isn’t much to go on, but it sure looks like they’re missing pitching coach Leo Mazzone. Here’s hoping the Padres can take advantage and even up the series at Turner Field today.

Brazelton Out, Hensley In

As we noted during Friday’s IGD, Clay Hensley will take Dewon “Instant Offense” Brazelton’s spot in the rotation beginning Tuesday in Denver. Both the San Diego Union-Tribune and Padres.com have confirmed this.

Good to see the guy with the career 2.39 ERA get the nod over the guy with the career 6.42 ERA.

IGD: Padres @ Braves (14 Apr 06)

first pitch: 4:35 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chan Ho Park (0-0, 3.86 ERA) vs Tim Hudson (0-1, 12.36 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | ESPN.com

Coming off their first series win of the season, the Padres head to Atlanta for three with the Braves. The good news for the Padres is that their hosts don’t seem to be adjusting well to the departure of pitching coach Leo Mazzone. Their staff ERA through 10 games is a whopping 6.67. The bad news is, the Pads aren’t doing much better at 6.21. Also, whereas Atlanta is pounding the bejeezus out of the ball (.290/.362/.513), the Padres — with a couple notable exceptions (Adrian Gonzalez, Khalil Greene) — aren’t swinging the bat real well (.239/.322/.382).

After two solid bullpen appearances, Chan Ho Park makes his first start of the season. As with Dewon Brazelton, now we’ll start to get an indication of whether improved performance during the spring is a sign of better things to come or just a desert mirage. On the Braves side, starter Tim Hudson has gotten out of the shoot slowly, lasting just four innings in each of his first two starts. On offense, pretty much everyone except Jeff Francouer is having their way with the baseball, including some unexpected sources (Ryan Langerhans, Wilson Betemit).

Go get ‘em, boys!

Friday Links (14 Apr 06)

Is it just me or, did it seem like Friday would never arrive this week? Well, it’s here now. Let’s see what we’ve got:

  • Brazelton shelled again (San Diego Union Tribune). All I know is that giving up eight earned runs in four innings shouldn’t lower your ERA. As Nick G. pointed out in Thursday’s IGD, Brazelton actually reduced his ERA by surrendering three runs in the first. From the article: “Bochy, who said reliever Brian Sweeney is now a starting candidate, was troubled by the body language and reactions to adversity Brazelton displayed in yesterday’s 9-2 loss to the Florida Marlins.” Mark Grant also mentioned Brazelton’s body language during the television broadcast. I hope we don’t have another Dennis Tankersley on our hands here.
  • Gonzalez shows Marlins what they’re missing (North County Times). For the second straight game, Adrian Gonzalez drilled a ball off the scoreboard in left center that probably goes out at Petco Park. His opposite field power is surprising the heck out of me. Also, according to Marlins outfielder Chris Aguila, a former roommate of his, Gonzalez is “a great cook — great Mexican food.” A man of many talents.
  • Chandler cooks up tasty tales of Padres (San Diego Union Tribune). This one’s been sitting out there for a while, but former Padres broadcaster Bob Chandler has written a book. If there’s anyone around who knows more about this franchise, I sure couldn’t tell you who it is. Sounds like a fun read.
  • There’s a new Padres blog called Padre Postings over at the pay-to-write MLBlogs.com service.
  • Another new blog is Baseball Minutia, which claims to be “sifting through baseball’s past, present and future.” It has a bit of a Cincinnati Reds slant, but this one looks promising. [Tip o' the Ducksnorts cap to Baseball Musings.]
  • Tigers off to a blazing start (ESPN.com). Speaking of minutiae, there’s plenty for everyone in Jayson Stark’s latest column.
  • Opening Day Player Payroll: Inside the Numbers (Hardball Times). Maury Brown takes a good, hard look at payrolls throughout the league this year as compared to last year. In the NL West, only the Padres and Dodgers increased theirs. The Pads median salary checks in at $925k, which is 16th in MLB. Only the Rockies in the NL West are lower, at $350k. Also, if you’re wondering why nobody is going to Marlins games, maybe the fact that they slashed payroll by 75% while raising ticket prices by 7% has something to do with it.

Whoomp there it is. Go Pads!