It’s May, and just as they did at this time last year, the Padres have transformed themselves from a mediocre (or worse) team into the hottest item this side of George Clooney’s African thing-solving crusade. So, how are they doing it?
Hitting
The Padres are producing at the plate. The organization’s emphasis on a patient approach is starting to pay off, as the club continues to work deep into counts and now is taking advantage of good hitters counts. Calls for Dave Magadan’s head have been put on indefinite hold, as the team has hit .273/.356/.413 during the month.
Not only have the Pads outscored the opposition, 84-37, in 14 games, they’ve also hit more doubles (30-16) and drawn more walks (61-34). Doubles and walks. That is pretty much the name of the game with Magadan and the Padres’ philosophy: work the count, drive the ball. The difference in May is that the hitters are executing the plan to perfection.
Who, exactly, is doing the damage? It’s an interesting mix. Five regulars are at or above 6 RC/27 for the month, and a sixth (Mike Cameron) is at 5.95. The kids up the middle have been doing their part, with Josh Barfield hitting .327/.375/.462 and Khalil Greene at .264/.333/.528. And Brian Giles is contributing by drawing ungodly amounts of walks (did you notice his 0-for-0 line with 5 walks on Sunday at the Cubs?).
But the guys leading the charge are two veterans whose arrival in San Diego was met with criticism in some circles. Catcher Mike Piazza was supposed to be washed up, although I liked his acquisition this off-season on the cheap. And Dave Roberts — well, suffice to say, I couldn’t have been more wrong about a trade and a player.
You may recall that I absolutely hated the deal that brought Roberts to his hometown. I thought the Padres overpaid for replaceable talent. And in my defense, everything about Roberts’ history to that point suggested I was correct. But check this out:
Dude turns 34 at the end of the month. He’s supposed to be entering the decline phase of his career. At the very least, he shouldn’t be adding 20 points to his BA, 25 to his OBP, and 82 (!) to his SLG while moving to a park that suppresses offense.
Roberts has been a catalyst for the Padres since coming here, and although a part of me still expects him to turn into a pumpkin at any moment, I can’t deny what he’s meant to this ballclub. And this May, he and Piazza have been on a rampage:
| Player |
AB |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
RC/27 |
| Dave Roberts |
48 |
.396 |
.473 |
.583 |
13.48 |
| Mike Piazza |
32 |
.344 |
.432 |
.531 |
9.44 |
Roberts also has nine stolen bases in as many attempts. Even though we’re talking about a total of just 80 at-bats between them, that is tremendous production. Speaking of which, we need to give an honorable mention to two guys coming off the bench: Geoff Blum is hitting .615/.615/1.000 in 13 May at-bats, and Rob Bowen (currently on the DL) is at .500/.533/.917 in 12 at-bats.
Pitching
As good as the offense has been, the pitching has been even better in May. Here’s the line through the first 14 games:
| IP |
ERA |
H/9 |
BB/9 |
K/9 |
| 130 |
2.49 |
6.92 |
2.35 |
6.30 |
Hit prevention? Check. Walk prevention? Check. Run prevention? Check. Yep, that’s pretty much it.
The resurgent Chan Ho Park hasn’t allowed a run in 15 innings this month, while Jake Peavy and Clay Hensley both have ERAs under 2.00 in three starts. In the bullpen, Scott Cassidy, Brian Sweeney, and Trevor Hoffman have combined to surrender just three runs in 23 innings.
Speaking of Cassidy, when did he turn into Rudy Seanez (the cheap guy on the Padres last year, not the expensive one on the Red Sox this year)? Opponents are hitting just .172/.264/.281 against the right-hander in 22 2/3 innings so far.
But it’s not just Cassidy. The entire staff has been stingy in May, holding the opposition to .213/.273/.335. That’s a watered-down version of Rey Sanchez or Gary Bennett.
Yes, please.
Defense
This one is harder to quantify, but I can’t deny its impact. I don’t know of a way to break down defensive statistics by month, and even if I did, I’m not sure how much I’d trust the numbers anyway — existing defensive metrics are shaky enough over a full season.
On an anecdotal level, anyone who has watched the Padres even a little bit in 2006 can tell you what a difference Cameron has made in center field. Or you could just ask Park, who probably has been the single biggest beneficiary of Cameron’s play out there. I wonder how many steak dinners Cameron has had on Park’s dime so far this season.
All three starting outfielders are near the top of their position in range factor. That’s a far cry from last year:
| Pos |
2005 |
2006 |
| LF |
2.05 |
2.31 |
| CF |
2.39 |
3.16 |
| RF |
2.22 |
2.38 |
The change from Ryan Klesko to Roberts in left has been noticable, if not spectacular, while the change from Roberts to Cameron in center has made a tremendous impact. As expected, Cameron’s presence has turned the position from a weakness into a strength. And over in right, even Giles is doing a little better this year than last — it’s not a profound difference, but every bit helps.
The change on the infield hasn’t been as radical. Josh Barfield (4.76 range factor in 2006) has been a slight improvement over Mark Loretta (4.58 in 2005), while Vinny Castilla (2.75) has been better than Joe Randa (2.32) but not quite as good as Sean Burroughs (2.78).
The mystery to me is Khalil Greene, whose numbers are down this year (3.76) from last (4.14). This doesn’t jibe with what I’ve seen, and I wonder if there are other factors at work which might be keeping so many balls from being hit his way.
And for as much grief as he takes for his inability to throw out baserunners (yes, it’s painful to watch the ball bounce to second every time), Piazza has done a solid job of working with his pitchers. I also like what I’ve seen from his understudies in that regard. And the Padres have three catchers who will stand their ground on a play at the plate, which is a refreshing change.
The mainstream media will cite the Padres’ league-leading .990 fielding percentage as evidence of their defensive prowess. Statheads knock the metric, and deservedly so, but fewer errors generally means fewer runs allowed, which in turn generally means more wins. A team that doesn’t commit many errors also, by definition, is executing well. I don’t think I need to explain the importance of a team executing well. 
Conclusion
The Padres are getting timely hitting from a variety of sources. They are working counts and driving the ball. They are keeping errors on the basepaths and in the field to a minimum. Their pitchers are working with efficiency. Basically, the Pads are doing everything you would expect of a team that has won 14 of its last 15 games.
The question now is whether the Padres can parlay this streak into something more. Will they be able to build on their strong start in May and push toward another NL West title? The guess here is that, like last year, it will be a struggle down to the wire and whoever comes out on top will again receive undue criticism for having done so.
Here’s hoping it’s the Padres.
Recent Comments