Jake Peavy
The line from Peavy’s start Saturday night looks okay, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Although he allowed just one run over six innings, Peavy was working out of jams most of the game. He didn’t dominate the way he has much of the past two seasons. In fact, we haven’t really seen vintage Peavy yet in 2006. It’s only seven starts, so way too early to panic, but check this out:
| Year | H/9 | K/9 | P/PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 7.90 | 9.36 | 3.87 |
| 2005 | 7.18 | 9.58 | 3.89 |
| 2006 | 8.74 | 6.15 | 4.32 |
One of the problems is that he hasn’t been missing as many bats as in the past. I first noticed this in his April 25 start against Arizona, where hitters were fouling off pitches like crazy. Usually guys wouldn’t even be making contact on a lot of those. Note the number of pitches per plate appearance in the above table.
Again, beware of the small sample size. We’re not making conclusions yet, just tracking a trend. Peavy apparently has been working with pitching coach Darren Balsley on smoothing out his delivery, so hopefully that will pay dividends. If you’re looking for optimism along those lines, you could do worse than recall that Peavy and Balsley have been working together since both were at Class A Lake Elsinore in 2001.
Woody Williams
I have to admit, I didn’t think Williams had anything left in him. It’s unreasonable to expect a guy to bounce back like this at age 39, but there he is doing it.
In Sunday’s start against Chicago, Williams struggled early, allowing three runs on six hits over the first four innings. But he finished strong, blanking the Cubs over the final four frames on just two hits.
Williams is starting to mix in the knuckleball a bit more. And although Aramis Ramirez hammered an errant knuckler into the left field bleachers on Sunday, Williams also struck out Todd Walker on the pitch. It isn’t a show-stopper, but the knuckleball can be an effective weapon for Williams, and it’s fun to see him gaining confidence in his ability to throw it.
Rob Bowen
I am still baffled by the fact that teams exposed this guy to waivers. I’ve liked Bowen for a while, but the early returns are even better than I’d expected. He looks like a good handler of pitchers, and so far he’s delivered quality at-bats.
We know about the walk-off homer to win Saturday night’s game, but he hit a ball even harder in his previous at-bat when he flied out to center in the seventh. And then on Sunday, Bowen drew a walk in his first trip to the plate after falling behind in the count, 0-2. He beat out a chopper to third his second time up (showing surprisingly good wheels), and then doubled deep into the gap in right-center before finally being retired in his final plate appearance.
It amazes me that something of value has to be given to get a stiff like Doug Mirabelli, but that a kid like Bowen can be plucked off the waiver wire. Hey, we’ll take it.
Josh Barfield
Yes, the plate discipline is an issue. We’ve known that for a long time. But the defense is better than advertised, and Barfield is doing some things that aren’t showing up in the box score (pardon the cliche, but in this case it’s true):
On Friday night Barfield drove in the game’s only run on a single to center in the 11th inning. The part I like (aside from winning the game, of course) is what Barfield said afterward about his at-bat against Cubs reliever Scott Williamson:
He was throwing that slider. It was his best pitch. I was looking for the slider.
Tim Flannery was going nuts over this on the postgame show, and I think with good reason. It doesn’t seem like a lot of rookies would (a) have the awareness to know what Williamson’s best pitch is and (b) have the confidence to sit on something other than a fastball in that situation. It’s only one at-bat, I know, but damn.
The other thing Barfield did that impressed me happened in Sunday’s contest. In the top of the first, with Dave Roberts on second, Barfield lined a single to right. Right fielder Jacque Jones airmailed a throw home (BTW, if it isn’t already, the book on Cubs outfielders should be to run early and often against them). Barfield correctly read that it would miss the cutoff man and easily cruised into second. Then, after a Brian Giles sacrifice fly scored Roberts, Barfield scampered to third on a passed ball that didn’t get more than 10-15 feet away from Cubs catcher Michael Barrett.
I have been so impressed with Barfield’s presence out on the field. Sure, he’s got things to work on, but he’s also got things to work with. And if the progress he’s made defensively at second over the years is any indication, Barfield is capable of improving as needed.
Khalil Greene
The batting average is low (.226 after going 4-for-4 on Sunday), and he’s striking out a lot. But I believe that Greene’s more patient approach at the plate will pay dividends in the long run, as he starts to drive more of the good pitches he sees as a result of working the count.
The first step was to make pitchers work harder, and he appears to have mastered that. His 4.22 pitches per plate appearances is good for eighth in the NL, ahead of guys like Jason Bay, Albert Pujols, J.D. Drew, Miguel Cabrera, Luis Gonzalez, and others. It’s also well above the 3.75 pitches per plate appearance Greene saw in 2004 and 2005.
We’re seeing an increase in walks (17 in just 30 games this year vs 25 in 121 last year) and walks per plate apparance (.138 in 2006, up from .053 in 2005). But we’ve also seen a lot more full counts to Greene. Last season he worked the count full just 41 times (.086 per PA); so far this season he’s done it 25 times (.203 per PA). That’s greater than the difference between Mike Matheny (.083 full counts per PA over 2003-2005) and Jim Thome (.187 over the same stretch).
Phase two of the strategy involves making solid contact after working the count in his favor. Greene hasn’t been doing that with consistency yet, although he doubled twice and singled twice in four at-bats on Sunday. Both doubles, incidentally, came close to leaving the yard.
The bad news is that Greene has more strikeouts (26) than hits (24) this year. The good news is that despite a batting average that is 30 points below his career norm, his OPS is just about the same as always. This suggests that if he continues with a more disciplined approach and is able to make more consistent contact, Greene should be able to return to 2004 levels or possibly exceed them.
If Greene can add a new dimension to his offensive game without losing anything from what he’s already got, he could be a force. It’s still early, and he hasn’t done it yet, but I’m excited about the possibility. If nothing else, it’s fun to watch him spit on “decent” pitches in the knowledge that he’ll probably get a better one to hit later in the at-bat. Guys still can be aggressive at the plate, they just need to make the pitcher work a little before unloading.
Re: Barfield Nature or Nurture? I think most of us would agree both play a role, and I think, Geoff, you’ve put your finger on the Nurture part of Josh’s performnace. He’s wise beyond his baseball years. He knows how to play the game like a veteran and is not a typical rookie. I really think this is due to having grown up around the ballpark and associated with major leaguers since he was a youngster. It’s great to see him in a Padres uniform.
Re: Greene I don’t know what to make of this guy. I was very disappointed in the regression he had last year. This season is a mystery. Yes, his walks are way up, but his K’s are also and his BA is way down. He has shown great power and has picked up plenty of RBI, but his BA with runners on and RISP is horrible. So what to make of Khalil? I think I’ll need to see a couple more months to see which direction he goes in. Hopefully it will be a positive change.
Geoff, this is great. This is why I keep coming to read your blog, man.
I’m excited about Barfield and Greene also, and now I know why. The Padres should be set at shortstop and second for a few seasons.
And it looks like Peavy is struggling to miss the bats more than I thought. A couple of friends who’d been to his two starts were concerned and I can see why thanks to your article.
Keep it up, Geoff. Thanks for the analysis.
Re: Jake. Clearly he’s not pitching up to his level. I don’t know if he’s overthrowing, trying too hard with limited run support, or what. He’s really not been all that efficient, and it’s been my impression that he’s been working behind a lot in the count. What worries me the most is that with his mechanics not quite right at the moment he is one step closer to injury.
If I remember correctly Greene had a couple of months last year when he hit well over .300 and slugged over .500, the rest of the year he was below .250. I think what we’re seeing is another of those bad months but the difference is he’s learned to be patient and take a walk. Was it Geoff who mentioned the other day that Khalil had been missing pitches he should be killing? I think that’s just a slump, which he seems to be coming out of.
And Barfield has been a lot of fun to watch. All those cliches about “knowing how to play the game” and “things that don’t show in the boxscore” really are true in his case. Hopefully we can get these two locked up long term and have a modern day Trammel/Whittaker type infield. With AG scooping them out at first this is going to be a fun bunch to watch over the years.
As for Peavy, his velocity and movement seems ok but his location hasn’t been sharp. That would indicate mechanical problems, hopefully they’ll get it straightened out soon.
On another note, why does Juan Pierre get so much play from announcers? He’s really not a very good ballplayer. He’s fast and doesn’t strike out but he doesn’t seem to be all that great in the outfield and as mentioned above his arm is terrible. Kind of like a faster but less productive Dave Roberts.
Bowen, where did that dude come from?
His bat sucked everywhere else.
I agree the only thing missing with Jake is the Ks. Have to wonder if guys are finally realizing though that you can’t watch that inside fastball with two strikes as it curls back in for a called strike three on the corner. Barfield looks polished like he’s the son of a former major leaguer who’s been around baseball all his life. Oh wait! He is! Greene is finally doing what he should have been doing two years ago. Putting himself into hitters counts and looking for balls to drive. He’s just not that good at it yet. Hopefully he figures it out soon as at age 26 he should be coming into his ‘peak’ years and I think everyone will be a bit dissapointed if he’s not in the .850+ OPS range during that time. Nice post, keep the faith. Eight in a row sure cures alot of ugly offensive stats!
Greene is drawing walks which is good for his OBP even with all the strikeouts.. He needs a comprable rate of BB:K 17:26 isn’t that bad.. compare it to last year when Greene did not draw any walks.
Bellhorn 7BB: 21K .. something that has been headlining his whole career but as long as he slugs .473 that will be good.
I like that Bochy is at least giving young players like Bowen their shot and they’re coming through. Anyone think we could see a Bowen/Piazza platoon soon?
Brian G – whassup with AP Warrior? I think you should donate $2 to Ducksnorts … just click on that link to PayPal below GY’s pic above
Khalil has shown a lot of improvement this year. His .274 EQA isn’t quite up to what he did his rookie year, but his Isolated Power is .026 higher than it was and his Isolated Discipline is .031 higher. More hits will fall in and his BA will almost certainly go up. That his power and discipline are on the move is a very encouraging.
Geoff, you got an entry on David Pinto’s site. Congrats.
Nate Silver’s got an interesting article (sub. req.) up over at BP today about the poor performances we have seen from those pitchers that played in the WBC. It’s a good read.
“But the starting pitchers have been brutalized. Nineteen of the 26 starters–nearly three-fourths of our sample–have underperformed their PECOTA. In most cases, they haven’t even come close to their projection. The weighted average ERA for the WBC starters is 5.49, a buck and a quarter higher than their PECOTAs. Keep in mind that these are supposed to be, quite literally, the best starting pitchers in the world, and that this performance has come over hundreds and hundreds of collective innings”
His theory:
“Rather, I think the problem is that the pitchers had been taken out of their routines. They didn’t get to see their trainer, pitching coach, or manager for a couple of weeks, they weren’t able to relax in the low-pressure environment of the Grapefruit or Cactus Leagues, and so forth.”
Could this be what’s wrong with Jake?
Nice summary, Geoff. I really think if Khalil stays with his approach, we will become a much more dangerous hitter. Seeing his K’s goes up makes sense; the deeper you go in the counts, the greater your odds of a K. Last year I used to see him swing and miss badly on breaking balls out of the zone (low); I have not seen that as much, so part of this may be more confidence that he can battle with 2 strikes.
The K’s can be painful in certain times, but I have run numbers on team offense to runs scored, and the K:BB ratio doesn’t add much, if anything. It’s all OPS and if you can push up your OBP, that works.
Barfield made me think of Loretta. I loved Loretta, seems like a good guy, well educated, etc, but I would have to put him on my shortlist of single season steroid flags. His monster season of an .886 OPS is probably just a blip, but coupled with the fact he was in Petco, and that his numbers plummetted as the attention focused on steriods gives me some pause.
I was afraid Woody would lose confidence in his knuckler when he gave up the homerun. It looks like he has, in fact, given up on it. Here’s a quote from the UT:
“I feel sometimes it’s a waste of my time,†said Williams of the knuckleball. “I’m going to throw it away.â€
Baseball Musings plugs this post, Geoff.
Problem with a a winning streak is you gotta lose sometime, I mean only the ’72 Miami Dolphans won em all, right? I’m scared.
If you win tonght against Maddox, I bet we finally crack the first 15 minutes of ESPN.
Funny thing about the streak, is that we’ve really only climbed out of the hole we dug with a lousy start. We are still 2.5 behind the rockies and only game above 500.
Khalil to me is in a simular position to Bouroghs a coupla years back. Tons of potential, but a bit odd, and needs to take the next steps to meet expectations. Looks like he may turn the corner, unlike Sean.
I wish all our games where during the day so Khalil could see the ball. Actually, we ought to get an eye specialist to look into Khalil’s night vision. Maybe he needs some more rods or cones.
Chase
I read on another site (either padres.com or the NC Times) that Woody made that remark “half jokingly.”
Jay
As much as I hate to admit it, because I love Loretta, the thought of ‘roids crossed my mind. He’s a smart guy — maybe he thought a couple of monster years would get him a bigger payday.
A Travis Chick sighting in an article (by KG) at BP …
For the briefest of moments in 2004, Chick was flavor of the month in prospect land, putting together seven monster starts (2.13 ERA, 55 strikeouts in 42 innings) for Low-A Fort Wayne after being traded from the Marlins to the Padres in a deal for Ismael Valdez. The Padres jumped the then 20-year-old Chick to Double-A to begin 2005, and it proved to be an overly-aggressive move, as Chick struggled with his command and began to press, which led to issues with his delivery, which led to lower velocity, which led to more problems. After putting up a 5.27 ERA in 19 starts for Double-A Mobile, Chick was included in another trade, going to the Reds as part of the Joe Randa deal. So now he’s 21, in his third organization, and back in Double-A, and Chick has reeled off four straight starts allowing two or fewer earned runs, something he never accomplished last year. If you were a young pitcher looking for a chance, Cincinnati could be the ideal organization. He’s not coming up anytime soon, but a major league debut sometime this season is within reach.
… just FYI.
Great discussion, folks; I always learn a lot from reading what y’all have to say. I’ll address some of the specifics a little later when I have more time — either here in the comments or as a follow-up post.
I also wanted to give you the heads-up that today’s IGD will be posted a little late. I’ll try to get it out there by first pitch.
Thanks, as always!
anthony: That would be such a coup for the Pads and for us Padres fans if we could get anything close to the sort of run which Trammell and Whitaker had. They were amazing in both performance and longevity. Tough to do these days with FA, but even 5 to 10 years of guys like that would be special. Khalil and Josh could just be a couple of guys who could come close to that, too.
RE: Loretta… I know the steroid card is tempting to pull, but guys do have career years, and have been having them for a long time before such PED’s came around. It’s possible he just had a lot of things come together such as health, stability and maturity. Too bad we have such speculation popping up like this, but it is understandable when a guy has such a standout year (or years as his 2003 was pretty exceptional, too) in this environment.
If you’re an Aztec baseball fan, I’m sure you’ve already seen this box score … http://tinyurl.com/go3kr … if not, enjoy!
Enjoy the game. Being out of market, I really envy you guys getting to go down to the game. They should have a “blog night”, give a select group of bloggers access to the press seats, so you can watch the game and blog on the laptop. Baseball dork’s (alluding to myself) dream.
Regarding Burroughs vs. Greene; I was surprised and saddened to watch Sean fade; but it would appear that after showing he could hit for average, there must have been a discussion about trying to pull for power, etc. Maybe you cannot teach that, but I never really noticed an adjustment by Sean. Maybe it put too much pressure on him or something, but I just seemed to see that soft dump into left-center, time and time again. My guess is that by his on volition or his coachs’, that Greene is trying to be more patient. You can see it. Anyway, this suggests he is actively listening to suggestions and doing something about it. Burroughs was the average guy that was supposed to naturally develop power, the supposed norm. Greene has natural power, but appears to be trying to be more consistent about getting on base.
Go get ‘em. I hope Maddux misses enough on the first pitch to allow some deep counts. The Cubs’ bullpen must be ready to die. If we can keep it close and get to the bullpens, we have a big advantage.