Where Did We Go Right?
Mon, May 15, 2006
by Geoff Young
It’s May, and just as they did at this time last year, the Padres have transformed themselves from a mediocre (or worse) team into the hottest item this side of George Clooney’s African thing-solving crusade. So, how are they doing it?
Hitting
The Padres are producing at the plate. The organization’s emphasis on a patient approach is starting to pay off, as the club continues to work deep into counts and now is taking advantage of good hitters counts. Calls for Dave Magadan’s head have been put on indefinite hold, as the team has hit .273/.356/.413 during the month.
Not only have the Pads outscored the opposition, 84-37, in 14 games, they’ve also hit more doubles (30-16) and drawn more walks (61-34). Doubles and walks. That is pretty much the name of the game with Magadan and the Padres’ philosophy: work the count, drive the ball. The difference in May is that the hitters are executing the plan to perfection.
Who, exactly, is doing the damage? It’s an interesting mix. Five regulars are at or above 6 RC/27 for the month, and a sixth (Mike Cameron) is at 5.95. The kids up the middle have been doing their part, with Josh Barfield hitting .327/.375/.462 and Khalil Greene at .264/.333/.528. And Brian Giles is contributing by drawing ungodly amounts of walks (did you notice his 0-for-0 line with 5 walks on Sunday at the Cubs?).
But the guys leading the charge are two veterans whose arrival in San Diego was met with criticism in some circles. Catcher Mike Piazza was supposed to be washed up, although I liked his acquisition this off-season on the cheap. And Dave Roberts — well, suffice to say, I couldn’t have been more wrong about a trade and a player.
You may recall that I absolutely hated the deal that brought Roberts to his hometown. I thought the Padres overpaid for replaceable talent. And in my defense, everything about Roberts’ history to that point suggested I was correct. But check this out:
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| pre-Padres | 1294 | .259 | .335 | .344 |
| with Padres | 537 | .279 | .360 | .426 |
Dude turns 34 at the end of the month. He’s supposed to be entering the decline phase of his career. At the very least, he shouldn’t be adding 20 points to his BA, 25 to his OBP, and 82 (!) to his SLG while moving to a park that suppresses offense.
Roberts has been a catalyst for the Padres since coming here, and although a part of me still expects him to turn into a pumpkin at any moment, I can’t deny what he’s meant to this ballclub. And this May, he and Piazza have been on a rampage:
| Player | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | RC/27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dave Roberts | 48 | .396 | .473 | .583 | 13.48 |
| Mike Piazza | 32 | .344 | .432 | .531 | 9.44 |
Roberts also has nine stolen bases in as many attempts. Even though we’re talking about a total of just 80 at-bats between them, that is tremendous production. Speaking of which, we need to give an honorable mention to two guys coming off the bench: Geoff Blum is hitting .615/.615/1.000 in 13 May at-bats, and Rob Bowen (currently on the DL) is at .500/.533/.917 in 12 at-bats.
Pitching
As good as the offense has been, the pitching has been even better in May. Here’s the line through the first 14 games:
| IP | ERA | H/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 130 | 2.49 | 6.92 | 2.35 | 6.30 |
Hit prevention? Check. Walk prevention? Check. Run prevention? Check. Yep, that’s pretty much it.
The resurgent Chan Ho Park hasn’t allowed a run in 15 innings this month, while Jake Peavy and Clay Hensley both have ERAs under 2.00 in three starts. In the bullpen, Scott Cassidy, Brian Sweeney, and Trevor Hoffman have combined to surrender just three runs in 23 innings.
Speaking of Cassidy, when did he turn into Rudy Seanez (the cheap guy on the Padres last year, not the expensive one on the Red Sox this year)? Opponents are hitting just .172/.264/.281 against the right-hander in 22 2/3 innings so far.
But it’s not just Cassidy. The entire staff has been stingy in May, holding the opposition to .213/.273/.335. That’s a watered-down version of Rey Sanchez or Gary Bennett.
Yes, please.
Defense
This one is harder to quantify, but I can’t deny its impact. I don’t know of a way to break down defensive statistics by month, and even if I did, I’m not sure how much I’d trust the numbers anyway — existing defensive metrics are shaky enough over a full season.
On an anecdotal level, anyone who has watched the Padres even a little bit in 2006 can tell you what a difference Cameron has made in center field. Or you could just ask Park, who probably has been the single biggest beneficiary of Cameron’s play out there. I wonder how many steak dinners Cameron has had on Park’s dime so far this season.
All three starting outfielders are near the top of their position in range factor. That’s a far cry from last year:
| Pos | 2005 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|
| LF | 2.05 | 2.31 |
| CF | 2.39 | 3.16 |
| RF | 2.22 | 2.38 |
The change from Ryan Klesko to Roberts in left has been noticable, if not spectacular, while the change from Roberts to Cameron in center has made a tremendous impact. As expected, Cameron’s presence has turned the position from a weakness into a strength. And over in right, even Giles is doing a little better this year than last — it’s not a profound difference, but every bit helps.
The change on the infield hasn’t been as radical. Josh Barfield (4.76 range factor in 2006) has been a slight improvement over Mark Loretta (4.58 in 2005), while Vinny Castilla (2.75) has been better than Joe Randa (2.32) but not quite as good as Sean Burroughs (2.78).
The mystery to me is Khalil Greene, whose numbers are down this year (3.76) from last (4.14). This doesn’t jibe with what I’ve seen, and I wonder if there are other factors at work which might be keeping so many balls from being hit his way.
And for as much grief as he takes for his inability to throw out baserunners (yes, it’s painful to watch the ball bounce to second every time), Piazza has done a solid job of working with his pitchers. I also like what I’ve seen from his understudies in that regard. And the Padres have three catchers who will stand their ground on a play at the plate, which is a refreshing change.
The mainstream media will cite the Padres’ league-leading .990 fielding percentage as evidence of their defensive prowess. Statheads knock the metric, and deservedly so, but fewer errors generally means fewer runs allowed, which in turn generally means more wins. A team that doesn’t commit many errors also, by definition, is executing well. I don’t think I need to explain the importance of a team executing well. 
Conclusion
The Padres are getting timely hitting from a variety of sources. They are working counts and driving the ball. They are keeping errors on the basepaths and in the field to a minimum. Their pitchers are working with efficiency. Basically, the Pads are doing everything you would expect of a team that has won 14 of its last 15 games.
The question now is whether the Padres can parlay this streak into something more. Will they be able to build on their strong start in May and push toward another NL West title? The guess here is that, like last year, it will be a struggle down to the wire and whoever comes out on top will again receive undue criticism for having done so.
Here’s hoping it’s the Padres.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 15, 2006 at 8:57 am
The key for me:
Peavy - about 7 K/9 IP
Williams - about 6 K/ 9 IP
Young - about 7 K / 9 IP
Park - about 6 K / 9 IP
Hensley - about 6 K / 9 IP
DER (opposite of BABIP): .732 or .268 BABIP (avg somewhere around .290)
All right in the good pitcher range, but only Jake and maybe Chris are able to climb out of that. So the rest will rely on the D and the ballpark to keep them from league average.
I’m also interested to see if a pitcher like Park can keep his BB and HR rates low when away from Petco.
May 15, 2006 at 9:14 am
Great job Geoff. There are so many different dynamics involved if you compare May 2005 and May 2006, and I really think team health, particularly among the starting pitching and outfield, will make the difference between whether this ends up being a repeat of or worse than 2005 or turns into something better.
Perhaps Greene is seeing fewer balls hit his way because the Padres have more fly ball pitchers on the staff? Not sure, haven’t checked the ratios on the starters.
May 15, 2006 at 9:16 am
This link is for LynchMob. Pads’ magic number — check out the E# column:
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/...../index.jsp
May 15, 2006 at 9:23 am
The Padres have the lowest GO/AO ratio in the N.L. We’re at .89 and the Nationals (at .90) are the only other N.L. team with more flyouts than groundouts. That would explaing Greene’s diminished numbers as well as part of the improvement in the outfield numbers. I’d also add the outfield defense is SO much improved that I don’t know how much of that .89 figure is the result of the pitchers’ tendencies and how much is the fact our outfielders can catch the damn ball.
May 15, 2006 at 9:27 am
Excellent analysis Geoff.
Towers had an interesting quote in today’s U-T. biggest difference between May 05 and May 06 is team chemistry and defense.
“The first thing that stands out is our chemistry,” Towers said. “I said it all spring: This is one of the best clubhouses we’ve ever had. Even when we struggled, nobody was pointing fingers or placing blame on anyone. We have the right veteran guys. It’s a fun club to be around. They all pull for each other. Nobody is bitter.”
Defense:
“It’s made life easier for our pitchers,” Towers said. “I think that’s why our starters are going deeper in the game. When you’re catching the ball, it keeps pitch counts down. And that also allowed us to go with one fewer pitcher, which helped our bench.”
I am elated with this year’s team. I got to watch the game on WGN yesterday and it was wonderful — sold defense, hitting behind the runners, great pitching and a K Greene 3-run jack. What else could a Pads’ fan want??
Cameron has to be the best defensive CF in the majors. I honestly can’t think of someone better. And he’s fun to watch.
May 15, 2006 at 9:31 am
errors = extra outs
Pads 14
Cubs 23
AZ 19
Rockies 23
Geoff, breakin it down. Nice work. Playing the cubs 7-times doesn’t hurt. What a sad sack team.
May 15, 2006 at 9:58 am
This blog is the best.
Anyone who doesn’t like Ducksnorts….they’ve got problems.
May 15, 2006 at 10:03 am
“Anyone who doesn’t like Ducksnorts….they’ve got problems.”
Yeah, Geoff, way to “solve that thing”.
May 15, 2006 at 10:07 am
well said
http://images.google.com/image.....amp;tab=wi
May 15, 2006 at 10:59 am
As we all painfully remember, last season’s May outburst was followed by four months of mediocrity. How do you guys feel about the Pads chances of sustaining this improved level of play? Obviously they’re not going to maintain this pace but given the improved defense and pitching I think they should do better than last year. The defense isn’t just a streak, we have some really good defensive players. Gonzalez especially is a big improvement at first and just having someone who can catch the ball in left really helps.
I’m really enjoying this team, it’s almost like a throwback to early 80’s baseball. Pitching, defense and stolen bases can be just as much fun as homeruns when they lead to winning baseball.
May 15, 2006 at 11:13 am
NickG - thanks for the link! It confirms the perl script I’ve written which parses the standings and calculates magic numbers (and elimination numbers. But note that what MLB has done is only relative to winning the division … that’s easy … what’s important is to do the analysis factoring in the wild card … once in the post-season, it don’t matter if it’s via division title or wild card. So, for example, Cincy’s true elim # is 126 … since they are on pace (tied with Phily) to be the wild card.
re: chances of sustaining? April is still fresh in my mind … and the fact that we’ve play’d the Cubs 7 times weighs heavily. I’m enjoying the ride a much as anyone … and I’m pretty sure this team will struggle to finish much over .500 when all is said and done … unless the starting pitching sustains. I’m just saying that that still feels very unlikely … I’ll be rooting (hard) to be wrong …
May 15, 2006 at 11:35 am
I pretty confident if we played the Cubs for another month we would be a lock for the playoffs. lol
May 15, 2006 at 11:36 am
The number you’re looking for to show how good the Padres’ fielding is would be .732. That’s their team defensive efficiency so far. It’s good for third in the Majors. They’re .005 behind the Tigers and Cardinals and .009 ahead of Anaheim. Contrast that with last year’s .699. That’s quite a difference.
May 15, 2006 at 12:18 pm
ESPN’s Rob Neyer says about the Pads today:
“About the Padres, I’m still skeptical. Their division’s not good — and that helps — but when your pitchers give up a higher OPS than your hitters get, you can maintain a .579 winning percentage for only so long. ”
Whatever, dude.
May 15, 2006 at 12:54 pm
Here’s what WC @ BP says about Woody today …
The Padres are done beating up on the Cubs for the season and will now have a bit of an uphill climb with their pitching staff. Woody Williams tore his calf in the muddy mess at Wrigley this weekend, putting him out at least eight weeks, possibly longer. Williams has a history of slow healing and leg injuries for marginal pitchers tend to be devastating. The Padres, once rich in pitching prospects, have only Jake Peavy to show for that period and now John Hudgins, acquired in a trade from the Rangers, could be on a fast track if the fill-ins the Pads audition don’t lock down the job.
re: Neyer … Padres hittters = .322 + .367 = .689 … Padres pitchers = .689 (according to http://tinyurl.com/eo54n … which doesn’t OBAA & SLGA broken out) … I think he’s got a good point …
May 15, 2006 at 12:57 pm
Oops, check that … here’s the pitcher #s … http://tinyurl.com/hlqmg … says Padres OBAA & SLGAA = .302 + .383 = .685 … I think the point/warning/caution is still valid …
May 15, 2006 at 1:07 pm
He’s got a great point. I just don’t want to hear it.
May 15, 2006 at 1:34 pm
There are two teams that wear san diego uniforms this season..
without cameron which is a lousy team
with cameron which is a terrific team..
this team sets the tone starting with cameron’s defense in center. He makes everyone else much better. Pitchers as well as other defenders rely on him running down gappers and taking away cheap hits from the opposition.
The absolute one thing we cannot afford….
that would be losing Cameron for a significant amount of time. Please Boch be careful with him.
May 15, 2006 at 1:34 pm
I dunno.
I’ll take the 20 points of OBP advantage. BP has us finishing with about 85 wins. I can see that. Play a few games better with our bullpen, maybe make a mid-season pickup and we could get to the 90s with some luck.
May 15, 2006 at 1:44 pm
Neyer has a solid point, but not a great one. We have a tale of two offensive teams, the one that put up a .630 OPS in April, and the one that is putting up a .770 one in May. As a team, they put up a .724 OPS in 2005 (and .810 in May), and I think this team is better overall offensively, so I really think that although they are not as good as they are hitting this May, they are still much better offensively overall than they were in April. Whether they actually are a better offensive team than last year’s group will remain to be seen.
Another thing that Neyer neglects to include in his evaluation is team defense, and the efficiency is outstanding, and should remain very good for now. This cuts down on opposing runs scored, particularly unearned runs. The Padres are giving up fewer hits than they are getting, and many fewer walks as well.
Another thing is improved offensive team speed which provides extra bases, turning singles into “doubles” via the steal or taking an extra base on a ball hit down the line, first and second situations into first and third situations, more runners scoring from second on singles, and giving more opportunities to hit with runners in scoring position.
May 15, 2006 at 3:40 pm
I’m in the glow of the Padre love, but something is bugging me. I fear Vinny is turning into last year’s Nevin: playing a veteran no matter how awful when better alternatives exist. I will give you his solid D, but it cannot offset his bat. I still am fuming about Nevin last year. You spell Nevin last year with Nady, I am somewhat optimistic that both Nady’s numbers would have improved as would have Nevin’s. With CHP pitching the way he is right now, the trade looks good, but I felt it was done mostly to force Bochy to stop playing him so much.
Vinny is an out machine right now. Blum, Bellhorn, Leone, random AAA 3B: others are worth experimenting with. Tonight is decent test case. Vinny has an OPS of .083 in 10 AB against Webb, while Bellhorn’s is .800 (albeit in only 5AB). If he runs out Vinny tonight, I am going to start that silent, prolonged scream I had last year.
One other disturbing element is AGon; man we need to have him find his stroke. I watch his swing: smooth, fluid, and think “This guy can hit”; but I look at his numbers, and cringe.
BWebb will be a very, very tough test tonight. Let’s hope May Magic can keep rolling.
May 15, 2006 at 4:41 pm
Jay, I know what you mean about Agon. He looks so smooth, he seems to have a plan, he’ll even take a walk. But somehow his batting average is 228 and it’s dragging everything else down with it.
The Union Tribune says the Padres are “elated” with Castilla’s defense and have no plans to promote Leone. Okay, don’t promote Leone. Seek help elsewhere. Last year we had several mediocre hitters and that made it hard to improve. This year we have two hitters doing nothing in Agon and Castilla, making it much easier to get better. If you stick with Gonzalez because you want him to develop, fine. But at least make use of your bench depth at 3b.
May 15, 2006 at 7:00 pm
The Padres are out EQAing the opposition and EQA is a better stat than OPS for a number of reasons.
May 16, 2006 at 2:04 pm
What a great write up, Geoff. I’m enjoying this analysis very much.
Having been out of town and crazy busy, I haven’t been able to see much of the games.
I did manage to catch the one inning in Wrigley when two wild pitches scored two runs for the Padres.
It seems to me that the hitters are more patient and the baserunners are a lot more aware of what’s going on in the game than last year’s.
I’d think that even if the hitting cool down, the fact that the hitters are willing to take walks and hit selectively will bode well for the team. The pitching has been outstanding as well and here’s hoping that it’ll continue.
I’m elated to have Mike Cameron as the CF. This was after all, the guy that the Mariners wanted to replace Junior. I’m also very much glad to see the defense on the right side of the infield be so good and reliable.
Go Padres!
May 19, 2006 at 5:48 pm
Multiply his salary by six.
Blum is being paid only for May. Pay him for April, June, July, August, and maybe a World Series Game winning home run in October. Watch him produce!
(Any guy that can come up with triplets when most of us are lucky enough to produce one child per per pregnacyy has to be blessed)