first pitch: 1:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Jake Peavy (4-6, 4.56 ERA) vs Brian Moehler (3-5, 7.17 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
Batters are hitting .381/.435/.643 in 126 at-bats against Brian Moehler away from Dolphin Stadium this year. Padres are hitting an MLB worst .224/.293/.336 at home. Something’s got to give.
first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Clay Hensley (4-4, 4.15 ERA) vs Scott Olsen (4-3, 5.60 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
How ’bout Chris Young? After taking no-hit bids into the sixth inning or later in each of his previous two starts, he goes out and strikes out a career-high 12 Florida Marlins Friday night at Petco Park. The only run he allowed came on a homer by San Diego product Mike Jacobs that bounced off the top of the right field fence. Dude is dealing.
A few other stories worth noting. First is Mike Piazza’s play behind the plate. I’ve mentioned this before, but Piazza has been way better defensively than I expected. He’s done a great job receiving pitches and working with the staff, he isn’t afraid to block the plate, and even his throws to second are getting better. He made a real nice toss on a stolen base by Hanley Ramirez in the fifth. Unfortunately Ramirez is extremely fast and got a good jump, but the throw was right where it had to be. The only other base swiped by the Marlins last night came without a throw. It’s a little thing, yes, but nice to see Piazza getting the ball down to second on the fly with consistency.
Next up, Adrian Gonzalez extended his hitting streak to 17 games with a double to right in the second. He has been pounding the ball during the streak and showing the ability to turn on inside pitches. Earlier in the season, Gonzalez was driving everything to left and left-center; pitchers figured it out and started working him inner half, and he struggled. Now he appears to have made an adjustment and is hitting those pitches with authority as well. Since the streak began May 17 at Arizona, Gonzalez is hitting .356/.391/.610, with four homers in 59 at-bats.
Finally, I know Khalil Greene’s batting average is way too low (.223), but I’m still encouraged by his approach at the plate. Half of his hits this season are the extra base variety, and among shortstops, only the Rangers’ Michael Young has knocked more extra base hits. Only Baltimore’s Miguel Tejada has a higher ISO, and only the Yankees’ Derek Jeter has a higher SEC. One interesting thing about Greene’s numbers so far this season is his splits with the bases empty versus with runners on. His batting average is almost identical in each situation, but he’s been much more productive with ducks on the pond.
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | ISO | XB/H | AB/HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bases Empty | 122 | .221 | .291 | .352 | .131 | .370 | 40.7 |
| Runners On | 93 | .226 | .330 | .516 | .290 | .667 | 15.5 |
| Stats are through June 9, 2006, courtesy of ESPN. | |||||||
I don’t have illusions about Greene becoming a truly elite hitter, but the fact that he’s got a higher OPS so far this year than he did last year despite a batting average that is 27 points lower gives me hope. So does the fact that Greene has equalled last season’s walk total in half as many games. The comparisons to Rich Aurilia we kept hearing when Greene first arrived are looking pretty good to me, and if you think that’s a slam, remember that Aurilia is a career .275/.330/.438 hitter who has knocked 20+ homers three times in his career.
Back to the present: Tonight’s contest features two young pitchers who don’t have much experience against the opposing team. Clay Hensley has been very tough early in games (opponents hit .180/.272/.270 against him in innings 1-3) but can struggle in the middle frames (.298/.376/.543 in innings 4-6). The key will be to get him a lead early.
The Fish, meantime, send out southpaw Scott Olsen, who has been death to left-handers (.176/.300/.255) but eminently hittable by right-handers (.295/.379/.527). Unfortunately, this probably means that Eric Young will start and lead off for the Friars. As with Hensley, Olsen starts strong (.236/.297/.387 in innings 1-3) before faltering late (.275/.394/.488 in innings 4-6, .455/.571/.909 in 11 at-bats thereafter).
There it is. Go Padres!
Mark your calendars for Friday, June 30. Paul Swydan at Baseball Prospectus just sent me this note:
Come join Baseball Prospectus authors Joe Sheehan and Dave Pease, high-ranking Padres executive(s), and special guests on June 30 for some great baseball talk and a pivotal division matchup. This event is among the best BP events all season, and this SoCal stop has become an annual BP tradition. Email Paul Swydan at pswydan@baseballprospectus.com for more details!
This is a Friday night game against the Giants. Last year, you may recall, a bunch of us met up at The Field downtown before the event. Maybe we can do the same again this time?
Anyway, if you’re interested in attending, let Paul know at the email address above and he’ll be able to answer any questions you may have. Last year’s event was a great success, and I’m sure this year’s will be no different. Hope to see you all there!
first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (4-3, 3.39 ERA) vs Ricky Nolasco (4-2, 3.15 ERA)
I am still fighting a bug I caught before going on vacation and I fully expect to be passed out on the couch by the third inning. With any luck, that means I’ll miss all of Vinny Castilla’s at-bats.
On the plus side, Chris Young has allowed just 3 hits over his last 16 innings. Go Pads!
first pitch: 11:05 a.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Mike Thompson (2-2, 4.91 ERA) vs Doug Davis (3-4, 5.23 ERA)
Car with a TEACH PEACE sticker on the bumper. Peace Racer intentionally runs a stop sign and then cuts right in front of me. Listen, pal, whoever you are, I dig the message, but the presentation blows.
On the other hand, the Padres snatched a victory from the Brewers Wednesday night thanks to consecutive homers by Adrian Gonzalez and Vinny Castilla on 0-2 pitches in the eighth, so I probably should cut Peace Racer some slack. But I won’t, because he’s still a jackass.
Early start today, no television. Talk about the game and stuff.
Go, Peace Racer, Go!
first pitch: 5:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chan Ho Park (3-3, 4.26 ERA) vs Zach Jackson (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
While looking for something else, I stumbled onto this:
| G | BA | OBP | SLG | RC/27 | BB/PA | ISO | AB/HR | RS/G | RA/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day | 21 | .279 | .361 | .448 | 6.01 | .109 | .170 | 32.6 | 6.05 | 4.14 |
| Night | 37 | .234 | .298 | .348 | 3.46 | .078 | .114 | 49.7 | 3.51 | 4.30 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. | ||||||||||
Vinny Castilla is a remarkable .183/.224/.202 in 116 plate appearances in night games. He’s created 2.5 runs in that span. Tonight’s starter, Chan Ho Park, has created 3.2 in 15 night game plate appearances.
As a group, the team stops hitting, stops drawing walks, and stops driving the ball with any authority after dark. The pitching staff seems relatively unaffected by this phenomenon, so I’m at a loss for a hypothesis, much less an explanation. Last year the team did better at night than during the day, which suggests that it may be a fluke.
Ah well, such are the things I think about when the Padres are in fourth place.
Special to Ducksnorts by Peter Friberg
Last night I wrote “Padres Poised to Pop Pitcher” for Ducksnorts.com. I had the Padres preference backwards. The Padres left Missouri St. right-hander Brett Sinkbeil on the table and tabbed Wake Forest third baseman Matt Antonelli with their first-round selection (#17 overall).
Antonelli is not a huge power bat and will likely move off of third base to either second base or center field, where his athleticism and bat will play better. He was a three-year starter in college and has great plate discipline. His power did start to emerge this year (7 HR in his first two collegiate seasons, 11 this year).
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| .333 | .439 | .584 | 39 | 24 |
With their supplemental first-round pick (#35), the Padres drafted a left-handed outfielder from Tennessee, Kyler Burke. Burke hit 20 home runs as a high school senior and aptly profiles to have “above average” raw power. He’s not just a masher, though. A pitcher in high school, his left-handed arm profiles nicely as above average for right field. Another nice tidbit about Burke — Baseball America indicates that he won his high school slam-dunk contest. That athleticism should play well in Petco’s spacious right field.
At #53, the other pick the Padres received from Baltimore’s signing of Ramon Hernandez, the Padres selected Chad Huffman. Huffman played first base, second base, and left field for the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs. Watching his video on MLB.com he doesn’t look like a second baseman. His actions seemed forced and rigid, but his bat should play wherever…
| BA | OBP | SLG | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| .388 | .498 | .742 | 38 | 31 |
The Padres had another second-round selection, their own, at #61; they chose University of Alabama left-hander Wade LeBlanc. LeBlanc won’t overwhelm anyone with his velocity, as he pitches in the mid- to high-80′s, but he’s been described as having the best control of any lefty in the draft. Padres’ scouting director, Grady Fuson, loves good changeups and Wade’s change is his best pitch.
| IP | H | HR | BB | SO | BAA | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 123.2 | 90 | 15 | 42 | 124 | .202 | 2.62 |
Picking in the fourth round with the 93rd overall selection, the Padres tabbed another high school outfielder, Cedric Hunter from Georgia. Hunter has played in the famed East Cobb summer program that produced Atlanta’s Jeff Francouer and other top prospects. Both Baseball America and MLB.com wonder if he has enough range to stay in center field or enough bat to play in left, but both say he has rare polish for a high school bat in this draft.
In the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds, the Padres selected three collegiate “pitchability” guys:
…and in the 7th – 10th rounds the Padres selected a bunch of collegiate infielders:
Then with the 333rd pick of the draft, things got interesting again…
In the 11th round, the Padres picked a high school pitcher with first- or second-round talent, Matthew Latos. Latos has a fastball that sits at 93-94 mph and touches 96-97. He adds a power curveball to his high-velocity fastball. Latos did not fall to the 11th round without reason. Latos had various “maturity” issues that dogged him on the field and off. At his best Latos is a premiere talent. At his worst, he can’t control his temper… The Padres may try to persuade Latos to attend a junior college while they retain his rights for a year.
Then, again in the 14th round, the Padres selected another tough-to-sign player — though this time, the player is a tough sign for a completely different reason. With the 423rd pick, the Padres selected Grant Green out of an Orange County high school. Green is a true five-tool shortstop (who projects more as a third baseman). Green played on the Junior Team USA squad. Green may be a tough sign because he has a solid commitment to the University of Southern California. While he was the scouting director for Texas Rangers, Fuson took several gambles with these types of players (frequently getting the player he wanted). Fuson had already indicated that the Padres have some money to spend and that he intended to take some chances.
first pitch: 5:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Jake Peavy (4-5, 4.15 ERA) vs Dave Bush (3-5, 4.95 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
Dave Bush has been nearly invincible at home this year (2.50 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, .188 BAA in 5 starts). Bush was part of the package that sent Lyle Overbay to Toronto this past winter. Overbay, in turn, was part of the package that sent Richie “The Gift That Keeps Giving” Sexson to Arizona. The Diamondbacks got 90 at-bats out of Sexson. The Brewers, meanwhile, picked up short-term solutions on the infield (Overbay, Junior Spivey, Craig Counsell) until the big three of Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and J.J. Hardy were ready, and now have Chris Capuano, Bush, and outfielder Gabe Gross to show for their efforts. That, folks, is how to make a deal.
On the other side, Jake Peavy makes his first start since May 28, when he led the Padres to a wild victory over St. Louis despite being knocked around a bit. Peavy had been given a few days extra rest due to shoulder tendinitis. Nobody seems overly concerned about Peavy’s health, although I always shudder a little when I see “pitcher” and “shoulder tendinitis” in the same sentence (hello, Ben Sheets).
So pick up that glass of whatever it is you’re drinking and join me in a toast: To Jake’s health! Go get ‘em, boys.
Special to Ducksnorts by Peter Friberg
[Note: As I went to publish Peter's article, he e-mailed me to let me know that Kansas City could be taking right-hander Brad Lincoln with the first pick overall, which would throw the draft back into flux.]
A week before the draft, the Padres draft group huddled together in San Diego to decide what to do with #17 pick. While they were sifting through several names, four stood out: Texas right-hander Kyle McCulloch, UCLA left-hander David Huff, California high school catcher Hank Conger, and Washington high school outfielder Travis Snider. Snider moved up on too many boards, Conger moved down the Padres’ wish list, and McCulloch and Huff both underwhelmed the brass.
Now, less than 10 hours before the draft, two new names (not new, but new to the discussion) enter the picture. The Padres are poised to take right-hander Brett Sinkbeil of Missouri St. at number 17. If Sinkbeil is unavailable at 17 (in what looks to be a volatile draft) the Padres would take Wake Forest’s third baseman, Matt Antonelli, and convert him to a second baseman or center fielder.
In another developing tidbit, the Padres have watched local prospect Justin Masterson closely all season. Masterson had been rumored to be popped in the teens. Now, in his MLB.com projection, Jonathan Mayo doesn’t even mention Masterson as a consideration from any teams in the top 30. If Masterson can slide past just four more teams, the Padres will likely call the Aztec right-hander with the 35th pick. Bryan Smith of BaseballAnalysts.com ranks Masterson as the 11th best collegian in the draft and notes that no draft-eligible pitcher this season had an ERA more affected by context than Masterson.
Getting either Sinkbeil or Antonelli plus Masterson would be a huge beginning of the day for the Padres.
Stats:
| Name | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | BAA | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinkbeil | 69.2 | 45 | 4 | 23 | 75 | .184 | 2.45 |
| Masterson | 116.0 | 124 | 8 | 26 | 108 | .268 | 4.81 |
| Name | BA | OBP | SLG | BB | SO | SB | CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonelli | .333 | .439 | .584 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 3 |
first pitch: 5:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Clay Hensley (4-3, 3.82 ERA) vs Chris Capuano (5-4, 3.33 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
The Padres, who have the best road record of any NL team this year, begin a four-game series in Milwaukee. The Brewers looked like an up-and-coming young team earlier in the season but now have lost eight in a row. Let the sausage race begin!
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