Open Thread (18 May 06)
Thu, May 18, 2006
by Geoff Young
Off-day today, and I’m still recovering from Wednesday night’s slugfest, so how’s about you tell me whassup? Here are a few ideas to get us started, courtesy of Ducksnorts readers:
- David wants to know what’s up with Jake Peavy. Do we blame his early inconsistency on the World Baseball Classic? Or is there something else going on here?
- Jack asks, “padres fans: where is the outcry for bringing in the fences? the players want it. the fans arent showing up because baseball at petco is boring! home runs are fun! shutouts suck! one of the reasons for leaving the murph was to get a more intimate ballpark experience! that doesnt happen at spacious petco park!”
And I’ll add a couple more of my own:
- How did everyone in the NL West end up with a winning record? Did they not get the memo that this division is supposed to stink?
- What happened to the Padres’ great defense? I was enjoying that.
Starting points. Maybe you have better things to talk about — let’s hear ‘em.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 18, 2006 at 7:19 am
Taking a day off is nice but all the more time to wonder if this defense is good or just lucky. In every game in Arizona we played shoddy baseball. Why? It seemed we were doing so well. I wonder if the players think they are back in spring training and go hang out at all the spring hangouts and are not really ready to play ball there. Just having fun and getting loose for the season? You think that could be a factor? What ever, I hope we are back to seeing superlative defense in Seattle.
May 18, 2006 at 7:21 am
I’ll take a shot at these:
a. Jake’s had some problems since the playoffs last year. The rib thing was a shoulder thing. I don’t think it’s the WBC he just left a few pitches up on Wed and he might not have the same type of control right now as you might see in June-July.
b. people aren’t showing up because they’re working on weeknights. Look at the Arizona series, they only drew 19, 20 and 18 thousand for the series in each game. People don’t go to the ballpark in May for the sole reason they have to take the kids to school and/or go to work the next morning.
c. The NL West has been good this year but I don’t see this trend continuing. For one, the Giants are one pitcher injury away from scrapping this whole season and turning it into the Circus featuring Barry Bonds. I think the Rockies and DBacks are for real though and the Dodgers will be okay.
d. The Padres have never played that well in Arizona (I saw an article said around 20-49 in Arizona now), maybe it’s the air down there but I don’t think the defensive miscues matter if you want to score 14 runs per game. 10 runs = win in sabermetric rules and any other rules I think.
Here’s something for discussion though (courtesy of the Hardball times) when will Khalil Greene pick up his avg.?
(link to article: linked at my name too http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....all-stars/
I say this while Khalil Greene is already an early-season win share all star.. which also means you should vote for him at the park.
from the article “(But) Khalil Greene is the [NL] shortstop leader, despite a .227 batting average. He’s got a .447 slugging percentage with eight home runs (playing in PETCO Park), and he’s batting with runners in scoring position. His 26 Runs Created are fourth among all shortstops.”
May 18, 2006 at 8:36 am
Aw, um, lets see, add to the conversation here at DS, hmmmm (chin scratch)…
Well, according to the VEEP, VORP, and VIPP stats, cross referenced with the ERA, RBI, BAT AVG, added to Pi and the Pythagorean Theorem and its many proofs (smell the wood burning), and conjoined with Non-Euclidean geometry, divided by the square root of 33.1, I conclude that….
The Padres ain’t bad, are in first , are fun to watch.
Gee, got a phone call in the 5th that went to the 9th. Wha happened?
May 18, 2006 at 8:41 am
Bringing the fence in? No way. I like the shutouts. As for the offense, once again, the opposition doesn’t have problems scoring in April and the Padres seems to have turned the corner a bit and comfortable spraying balls around at home.
Also, Chan Ho Park wouldn’t be as good for the Padres without the large yard to play in. And it seems so far to have been good for his confidence on the road. I’m sure Coach Balsley has something to do with that too.
Arizona thing is a thorn on the side of the Padres. They are just not good playing in AZ. I’m alright with that.
The defense will have some lapses. Let’s hope this is not a trend developing the rest of the season. I think the Padres’ is going to be one of the tops in the league at the end of the season.
Go Khalil Tabit Greene!
May 18, 2006 at 9:42 am
I think in the long run, small ball is a lot more fun to watch then a 7th inning three run blast. So I say leave the fences as is and get guys who can play small ball.
Seems every year there is a team that is hard to beat. Az might be that team this year. Last year we took four from the Red birds to start our Miricle May. Of course, the red birds beat us when it counted most, but I won’t bring up a certain somebody not blocking a certain plate.
May 18, 2006 at 9:46 am
Topic: Team Defense
It’s pretty clear to me that the biggest difference in run prevention for this year’s team compared to last year’s team is team defense. Here are the obligatory numbers to back this up:
2006 2005 2004
RA/G 4.21 4.48 4.33
K/9 6.65 7.01 6.74
BB/9 2.89 3.10 2.60
H/9 8.23 8.96 9.01
Def eff. .727 .699 .702
Despite the lower K rate in ‘06, they are allowing very vew hits while walking about the same number of batters as ‘05. Yet RA/G is lower than even ‘04. Looks like the defense is converting all the extra balls in play into outs at a higher rate than ‘04-’05, as is evident by the large spike in Defensive Efficiency. The moral to the story is this trend should continue so long as Mike Cameron stays healthy and Ryan Klesko stays banished to the gulag. It is also nice to see that the off-season plans (i.e. trading for defense while sacrificing strikeouts and slugging) working as envisioned.
May 18, 2006 at 10:06 am
I’m happy with the fences where they are. Dating myself, I grew up watching Koufax, Drysdale and Wills. 2-1,1-0, 3-2 were the type of games on which I was weaned. (I know, I know, a former Dodger fan. NOTE: “Former.”) Close, low-scoring games give added drama to the game, although last night turned out to be more of a nail biter than I expected. In close games, every pitch, every out, every miscue becomes important. Focus is more of a premium.
On the defense, or lack thereof, in AZ, I think you can attribute most of the infield miscues on the field. It’s a lot faster playing on the cement in AZ than the plush at Petco. That doesn’t really explain Cameron’s near cup crusher in center last night, or Giles losing his depth perception in game 2, though.
May 18, 2006 at 10:35 am
Congrats are in order to Mike Thompson - a solid MLB debut last night, and a somwhat typical line as Beavers fans would attest - guys make contact against him, but he doesn’t beat himself.
For another perspective on Thompson, here’s what Gary Lance said about him earlier in the year in an interview we did with him:
Question - Mike Thompson is a guy that was outstanding in Portland at the end of last season. He looks like he’s picked up right where he left off. What’s making him so successful?
Answer - Same thing, a lot like Stauf. They’re not going to light up the radar gun and they’re not going to impress you if you’re a scout who’s looking for a 98 mph fastball. That’s not the way these guys are. These guys are what we call true pitchers. They have late movement, they throw the ball where the hitter doesn’t want it and they change speeds when he’s looking for a fastball. That is what Mike has done. That game on Friday night, I was talking to (Beavers catcher) Jason Hill and he said (Mike) didn’t throw a single pitch straight. And that is the ultimate compliment for someone like Mike Thompson and anyone who doesn’t throw 95-100 mph. You have to throw a pitch that moves. Otherwise, these hitters are too good. They’re going to track it, they’re going to wait on it and they’re going to hit it hard. It doesn’t matter velocity, if it’s going to move and move late and the hitters have initiated their swing, the ball’s moved, it’s not where it’s supposed to be. Bam, ground ball for an out.
Here’s the whole interview:
http://www.pdxbeavers.com/comm......php?id=82
May 18, 2006 at 10:38 am
“Hi, my name is LaMar and I’m a former dodger fan.” Hi, LaMar.
The only thing I have to add to the discussion right now is I like saying Balsley.
May 18, 2006 at 10:53 am
I have not been to Petco yet, so I can’t speak for the atmosphere, etc.
But there is nothing better on a nice summer day than a beer, some peanuts, and a crisp 1-0 Jake Peavy/Trevor Hoffman shutout.
I’ll amend that to include the occasional 5-4 game, but I’m all for small ball. I think it’s great to watch.
BTW, my interesting stat of the day:
– SD team BA at Petco: .217 (last in NL)
– ” ” ” on the road: .283 (first in NL)
Thought that was interesting.
May 18, 2006 at 11:48 am
It always really annoys me when people talk about bringing the fences in so there will be more homers and offense and therefore more attraction for the fans. This is totally stupid and just not true. What brings in fans in every stadium (with the exception of Wrigley) is winning. And historically, pitchers parks have led to more winning than hitters parks. Therefore, anybody that says that increasing offense will bring in more fans is stupid. I can somewhat understand when fans say things like this since they might not have all the facts but when management makes that kind of statement it’s very worrisome. Kind of like trading for Vinny Castilla and continually playing Eric Young.
May 18, 2006 at 12:09 pm
Last night was a great illustration of one of the things I love about baseball. Juan Cruz has great stuff but he got lit up, Thompson doesn’t look impressive but he pitched well. Location, movement, changing speeds and just plain intelligence are all more important than throwing 98 mph.
Is Petco really that big? My impression is that what really kills offense is the heavy coastal air, balls just don’t carry. I love the Petco style and I’d like to see the Padres embrace it even more.
Khalil’s average will go up. Last year he had a couple of months where he hit well over .300, I’m sure he’ll get on a hot streak at some point. The big difference is this year he’s learned how to be prodctive even when he’s not hitting for average. Has anyone checked his BABIP? Maybe it’s just “luck”, his hits just aren’t falling in.
It’s odd that as soon as everyone started talking about the Padres great defense they go to Arizona and make errors all over the place.
May 18, 2006 at 1:24 pm
I hate the whining about the ballpark. I love triples. I love a game where baserunning, stolen bases, double plays…basically all the little things really count. I love line drive swings. Baseball in small parks covers up mistakes with power. Blah.
Petco may go too far — covering up pitcher’s mistakes with size, but it is certainly closer to the baseball I like than small parks.
As for our D, it is much better. It just wasn’t THAT good. But we had improvements at 2B, 3B, SS (in that Khalil has been healthy), 1B, and the whole outfield (Cameron is certainly helping Giles).
May 18, 2006 at 1:43 pm
Maybe we could move the SD bay west a coupla miles or install gaint heaters to dry out the air at Petco. Or maybe continue playing Petco ball.
Of course in April I was ready to burn the place to the ground. Now I’m happy.
Now, if we could just find a place for the Chargers to play that wasn’t near a certain amusement park. Any ideas. I see they want to put the new airport at Marimar and have the plans fly right over UC. I think Maramar would be a great place for a football stadium.
May 18, 2006 at 2:09 pm
Even if you move the fences in, a lot of the park factor comes from what happens off the water. Which is why day games the ball is more conducive to leaving..
And to answer some other things, the numbers like VORP and Win shares and WXRL are important to judge a team, eventually they’ll be a lot better than avg., era, and whip
May 18, 2006 at 2:22 pm
change of subject. I got a link to the Northwestern womens soccer hazing story. in case anyone cared about that.. the link is my name on here.
May 18, 2006 at 3:22 pm
Pat, the hardest part about becoming a “former” dodger fan was Step 7 in the 12 step process: “Accept Ted Leitner for who he is. He doesn’t have to be Vin Scully.”
May 18, 2006 at 4:10 pm
I’m on AOL Sports Bloggers Live today:
http://sports.aol.com/bloggerslive
Haven’t listened to it yet; hopefully I didn’t say anything too stupid.
And if you’re visiting from there, welcome!
May 18, 2006 at 5:00 pm
Re: Peavy - evidence that the WBC has played havoc with starting pitchers seems downright conclusive according to Nate Silver over at BP. He thinks the effect should wash out as the season progresses, but I wonder if the WBC pitchers won’t be bitten in the ass again come September due to their extended season.
Re: fences - agree with alla yuz guys - leave where they at & whiners, pleez, shut up already.
Re: NL West - better than last year, but not as good as their record thus far. Five decent teams, all with issues, none elite in ‘06 - or ‘07 I think.
Re: defense - hit a bump in Arizona, but definitely will be the least of our worries as the season goes on. The bats, the arms… aye, there’s the rub.
And, Pat… Balsley… heehee… Balsley… wheeeee! Come on, all together, say it… Balsley…
Feels good, don’t it?
May 18, 2006 at 10:09 pm
Draft discussion!!! (I know, I’m a draft-geek)
http://www.minorleagueball.com.....195534/305
May 19, 2006 at 6:54 am
LaMar, I’m even more impressed now. I don’t even accept Ted Leitner for who he is.
Yeah, yeah, yeah… Balsley!