first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Jake Peavy (5-10, 5.01 ERA) vs Andy Pettitte (9-11, 5.18 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
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Day 1 of the Todd Walker era presumably begins with him riding pine against southpaw Andy Pettitte, as two former All-Star hurlers try to get their ERAs below 5.00. Jake Peavy looks to build on his strong outing at Dodger Stadium last week. Go Padres!
76 Comments
Will be interesting to see how the clubhouse deals with EY’s release; the comparisons to Castilla are inevitable. Nice how the article on Vinny mentoring Gonzalez ran a day or two before he got cut, and then the piece about EY mentoring Barfield ran recently…
Hey Geoff…I just got handed some tickets to turn in..so I’m heading to the game. I’ll try to snap something tricky on the cameraphone and post it over at http://VinceOutlaw.com. Go Padres!! VO
Awesome, VO! Have fun.
they are all big boys so there should be no whinny about EY. There is no crying in baseball.
Walker is in uniform but not in the lineup. Also, Morgan Ensberg is in the lineup for Houston.
Gonzalez has to be one of the slowest guys in the league. Good thing he can hit.
If EY and Castilla did have a positive effect on Barfield and Castilla, then good for them and good for us. They made some contributions.
Hey, let’s hear some chatter out there.
I’m going to guess Jeff Bagwell on the question, since we are playing Houston.
Bagwell is a good guess.
What’s the trivia in question?
Who was the 1991 Rookie of the Year?
Biggio?
I meant Bagwell
They just mentioned Hometown Heroes. … Caminiti should be on the Padres list instead of Brian Giles.
Piazza is slower than Gonzo. And Enzo Hernandez should be on the Hometown Heroes list.
I actually wrote about it, and mentioned the Padres in passing:
http://www.washtimes.com/sports/20060724-115552-1659r.htm
I thought the 91 ROY was Piazza, part of that string of Dodgers (Karros, Nomo, Hollandsworth) that were winning it then.
Nice job, Kevin. Great point about the absence of Walter Johnson — that’s horrible.
Ah hah. Here’s the answer if you’re curious:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/roy_rol.shtml
Where have you gone, Jerome Walton?
Thanks, man. Lots of guys like Lefty Grove are not there, because their teams moved. … 91 was Bagwell. I think the Dodgers run started the following season.
Kevin – nice work. Good line about the ballot box outside Olympic Stadium. Saw a game there when I was in college; what a grungy, depressing place.
Montreal, however, is awesome.
I hope to see the Padres’ awesome place in September.
No walks for Peavy tonight. I guess he made all those “adjustments” with Balsley.
Wanted to ask about Peavy’s control and movement (radio only for me tonight). How’s he looking so far?
I think he looks good, to be really vauge. His two strikeouts were early, but maybe he is trying to get the Astros put the ball in play now, because his pitch count was high early, and I think we know Peavy wants to go as long as possible.
Anyone else watching?
Through five innings, Pettitte actually had thrown one more pitch (81) than Peavy. The Padres need to get into that bad bullpen.
The velo and movement are fine, but he’s still having trouble putting guys away after he gets to two strikes.
Lots of hits tonight with two outs. No runs.
Ben swings at ball four to end the inning. Good thing Pettitte’s pitch count is getting up there. He’s tough tonight.
Did anyone see Sullivan’s column on the Walker deal? How can he say the team how somehow gone “Moneyball” mad with OPS, when no one on team has an OPS of .900 and the reason they are as good as they are is their fielding.
Good news: Pettitte is being lifted for a pinch-hitter. Bad news: the pinch-hitter is Lance Berkman.
What a bad managerial decision by Garner to PH Berkman here w/1st base open. Shame on the PAdres if they pitch to him.
Hmmm, Berkman or Willy Taveras — tough choice there.
He’s 3-for-20 vs. Peavy, but Bochy is walking him. That’s Phil.
And now Berkman is pulled for a pinch-runner. Hilarious.
Pettitte came into the game with horrible numbers. He pitched six shutout inning (104 pitches) and moved his ERA under 5.00
So Garner wasted two guys.
What a pitch!
I think Peavy got a call there. I also think Taveras wasn’t expecting that pitch.
So glad that I’m not an Astros fan. I’d be furious at Garner right about now…
Yeah, if this game goes extra innings, we don’t have to worry about Berkman. What a bizarre decision.
On Moneyball:
Currently, the Moneyball strategy is fielding. Supposedly, that’s where the value is/recently was.
Agreed. But that was not Tim Sullivan’s contention.
I am glad to see Pettite out of the game. That cutter in was killing us tonight. I like our chances to get a run against the Astros bullpen. Bring on Brad Lidge
Walker is on deck to hit for Peavy.
Will he pitch for him?
Maybe we got him so he could hit after Bellhorn.
Damn, I thought Bellhorn got that one.
Well, that was quick.
Heh, Walker picks up right where Vinny left off.
Here’s the Sullivan article:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/sullivan/20060801-9999-1s1sullivan.html
Despite his confusion over what Moneyball is about, he makes a good point about Walker’s defense.
Ouch. Anthony, that’s not even funny.
Kevin – re: Sullivan and the Moneyball reference. This is the most recent example of a sportswriter saying that the book is about OPS, when that’s not the case. Moneyball is about identifying assets that are undervalued; in the book’s case Beane used OPS to identify productive players whom he could acquire on the cheap.
Over time, that changed; as more teams started looking at OPS, the market value of high-OPS players increased. Beane is on record talking about this, and the A’s shifted their approach towards attributes like speed and defense that were not as highly valued (sound familiar?). Look at the A’s stats; they only have three players with an OPS over .790. Yet, many people hear OPS and think Moneyball, for the wrong reasons.
Sorry for the rant on what I’m sure is old news to Ducksnorts regulars; it’s hot tonight and I’m ornery. C’mon Pads, let’s tear a piece off the Astros ‘pen.
From story: It suggests the Padres have embraced the “Moneyball†obsession with OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) while disregarding defense.
This is what got me. I know he’s talking about disregarding defense at 3B in this deal, but when you have above average defenders at every position but third and catcher, and elite defense at at least of those spots, you can take some chances at 3B.
at least *half* of those spots is what I meant.
How hot is it there? It was 99 today here in central North Carolina. What a “vacation.”
Pardon me. 96 today. 99 tomorrow.
Man, I love watching Meredith just generate ground ball after groundball. He and Embree are doing a great job the last few weeks.
Meredith is a stud. Greene, Gonzalez, and Johnson in the ninth. C’mon, guys.
Here he is…
C’mon Padres, light him up!
He’s got such a nasty slider-it’s tough to imagine that he’s been hit like he has this year.
Josh Bard on deck to bat for Johnson.
Scoreboard watch: Giants, Snakes, Rocks lose; Dodgers win.
Doesn’t it seem like every time we face a struggling pitcher he has a good game? Or is that just selective memory on my part? Based on the collective ERA of those guys we should have blown them out.
Tough outing for Jake, he certainly pitched well enough for a W.
They’re saying Bellhorn swung; game over. Shut down by Pettitte and Lidge. Go figure.
Man…I thought Bellhorn had a pretty good pitch to hit on 2-1…hanging slider. He just missed it.
What a frustrating loss. On the other hand, we only lost ground to one team and Peavy looked like himself again. Maybe moving to the other side of the rubber solved everything.
I finally got “The Book” in the mail today. Using its reasoning for lineup construction, the Padres ought to be using something like (wOBA):
Cameron (.370)
Piazza (.396)
Roberts (.353)
Gonzalez (.364)
Greene (.352)
Giles (.340)
Barfield (.339)
Bellhorn (.309)
Pitcher
Not sure if this belongs in IGD, but how about posting some ideal lineups and reasoning?
I know Bochy-Rettemund are still trying to figure out what works according to who’s pitching, but they had little success with changes for Jennings and Pettite. Barfield in 2 hole may still be a year away, but leadoff against lefties might work (although Roberts has seemed to do fine). Veteran pitchers can be very tough on rookies when runners are in scoring position.
Any thoughts about moving Adrian up to the number 3 spot against righties? May be too early to put pressure on a “rookie,” but the guy has been having great at-bats. Hits into a lot of DPs, and Giles is a decent hit and run guy, but I like the power-doubles bat in the 3rd slot. Giles would still be a tough at-bat in the 5 hole, and chances are he would be leading off the 2nd innning or batting 2nd — perhaps a better slot for him now that he lacks power and hasn’t hit his groove. Also, few managers are going to pitch around Piazza to get to Giles. I also wouldn’t mind seeing Giles in the 2 hole against righties. Cameron has been hitting a lot of doubles lately, and with Roberts or Giles on, I like their chances of scoring. You’d at least have 2nd and 3rd, 1 out, and Piazza coming up.
Vs. Righties
Roberts
Cameron (Giles)
Gonzalez
Piazza (Bard)
Giles (Cameron)
Walker
Khalil
Barfield
Vs. Lefties
Barfield (Roberts)
Giles
Cameron
Piazza
Adrian (Khalil)
Khalil (Adrian)
Bellhorn
Johnson (until he gets some at-bats) (Barfield)
Hmm, a huge power bat at 3rd would have made things a lot easier. Anyone think the Astros might take Bellhorn and Brazelton for Ensberg? Don’t laugh. Brazelton has a huge upside!
I just got back from the game, but I have a question for those who watched it on TV. From my seats on the third base side, it looked like Peavy was back on the left side of the rubber as opposed to the right last week. Can anyone who watched on TV confirm this?
Supposedly, one should have their top three bats in the 1, 2 & 4 holes, their remaining top five batting 3rd and 5th with the rest of the lineup 6-9 filled best to worst. 1st & 2nd should be on-base types and it’s preferable that the #2 hitter not GIDP much, a guy who strikes out a lot hurts you the least there.
Good point about the strikeouts, Richard. I’m sure Bochy and Rettemund have discussed all the angles (and Bochy is big on letting a hitter’s history determine where he bats), but how long can we wait for Giles to come around this year? Look around the NL and we see guys like Pujols, Chipper, Beltran, Berkman, Griffey (Dunn, no speedster, batting 2nd) in the 3 spot — guys with pop who can drive the ball.
Maybe Giles will come around, and he definitely doesn’t have the speed Cameron has, but if Giles gets on and Cameron hits a groundball, chances are Cameron’s on 1st, but if Giles hits a groundball, it’s a DP. Cameron and Adrian are driving the ball a lot better than Giles, and Giles has the better eye and OBP., so why not flip-flop them in the order? If Giles starts to come around, you can always switch them back. If Cameron strikes out , it’s either the third out of the inning (no one’s on base), or you still have Piazza coming up with a chance to drive in the run. And I like the hit-and-run with Roberts on first and Giles at the plate. If Giles misses or takes, Roberts still has a good chance of being on 2nd.
Does anyone see Bochy moving Giles out of the 3 spot any time soon if he stays in a funk (another 2 weeks)?
I wonder if Aurilia could be had cheap. He has hit .356/.417/.743 against lefties this year. Since 2000, he’s hit .286/.348/.516 against them. Aurilia/Walker would be a solid platoon. That’d be a wOBA of .366 against lefties and .350 against righties (.354 overall) since 2000. This year you’d have had .474 & .344 for a combined .384 over 369 plate appearances. Only Bard and Piazza have topped that.
Against lefties using only this year’s numbers (under 100 PA each)…
Khalil Greene (.389)
Josh Barfield (.400)
Mike Cameron (.374)
Mike Piazza (.480)
Ben Johnson (.380)
Dave Roberts (.368)
Adrian Gonzalez (.331)
Mark Bellhorn (.294)
SF, IBB, ROE and HBP not included in numbers (stupid ESPN).
And against righthanders:
Brian Giles (.370)
Adrian Gonzalez (.381)
Todd Walker (.349)
Josh Bard (.436)
Mike Cameron (.350)
Dave Roberts (.345)
Khalil Greene (.325)
Josh Barfield (.315)
SF, IBB, ROE and HBP not included in numbers (stupid ESPN).
I definitely wouldn’t mind seeing Aurilia return. He can play all infield positions and would be a huge upgrade over Blum in a utility role.