IGD: Padres @ Diamondbacks (30 Sep 06)
Sat, Sep 30, 2006
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 1:10 p.m., PT
television: FOX
matchup: David Wells (2-5, 4.80 ERA) vs Juan Cruz (5-6, 4.27 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets
Despite every outcome working against the Padres on Friday night, Baseball Prospectus has their odds of reaching the post-season at 95.8% with two games remaining. Clay Hensley made one bad pitch Friday (and upon further review, it wasn’t that bad of a pitch — Eric Byrnes went down and got it) and Livan Hernandez did what he does, which is throw a lot of junk and leave the opposition frustrated when he’s on. I’m not making excuses, just noting that sometimes you have to give the other team credit for coming out and competing when there isn’t necessarily anything in it for them beyond pride.
It’d be nice to see the Giants do the same against the Dodgers, but that is neither here nor there.
David Wells gets the start Saturday night for the Padres. I’d like to say something positive here, but I’m not feeling terribly inspired, so we’ll leave it at that. On a brighter note, the only members of the bullpen Bruce Bochy seems to trust have had two straight days off and should be good to go for these final two regular-season games.
Current Diamondbacks have had a fair amount of success against Wells, hitting .299/.322/.502 against him in 221 at-bats. The main culprits have been Luis Gonzalez (.409/.435/.773 in 22 AB), Eric Byrnes (.467/.529/.733 in 15 AB), and Robby Hammock (.500/.500/1.100 in 10 AB).
On the flip side, Juan Cruz gets the start for the Snakes. Matt Vasgersian and Tony Gwynn mentioned during Friday night’s telecast that Arizona manager Bob Melvin plans to give Cruz two innings before turning the game over to originally scheduled starter, Enrique Edgar Gonzalez. Both throw right-handed, although Cruz (801 OPS vs LHB, 626 OPS vs RHB) has much more pronounced lefty/righty splits than does Gonzalez (747 821 OPS vs LHB, 781 797 OPS vs RHB).
Scoreboard watching? Yeah, a little:
- Phillies at Marlins — 10:20 a.m., PT
- Dodgers at Giants — 1:15 p.m., ET
Don’t bonk. Go Padres!
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September 30, 2006 at 9:27 am
First!…and I got playoff tix! Upper Infield Reserved, Game 1 baby! Now let’s make it happen…
September 30, 2006 at 9:43 am
Pick me up some tix, Nick - I’ll be flying in on my private jet.
Oh wait, it isn’t 2026 yet.
September 30, 2006 at 10:21 am
How much?
September 30, 2006 at 10:26 am
$40 each…I actually tried to get my favorite seats in the Left Field Upper Box but they were all gone
September 30, 2006 at 10:56 am
How does the schedule break down? If we win the division we play St. Louis and have home field advantage, right? That means Game 1 is here on Tuesday? If we win the Wild Card we start on the road in NY and Game 3 is here on Saturday? Do I have that right? Another reason to hope we win the division, I can’t wait another week to go to a Padres playoff game!
September 30, 2006 at 11:07 am
Cabrera homers in the bottom of the first, Fish up 1-0.
September 30, 2006 at 11:13 am
I got my tickets. Second home game, upper right field seats.
Now let’s go out and win today and tomorrow to ensure that there will be a second home game. If the Pads win the division, I think they have home games on Tuesday and Thursday. Back in ‘98 we had days off between both the first and second games and second and third games, allowing Kevin Brown to start the third game of the series on three days rest. This year I think I would want Jake back out there on full rest for game 4 since he seems to pitch better with more rest. Hopefully then Hensley would pitch game 3.
Good start in the Marlins-Phillies game. Miguel Cabrera and Josh Willingham homer in the bottom of the first, and it’s 2-0 Marlins through 1.
September 30, 2006 at 11:19 am
It don’t come easy
You know it don’t come easy.
- Ringo Starr
September 30, 2006 at 11:22 am
Wow, that lead didn’t last long.
September 30, 2006 at 11:22 am
You’re all welcome. Cabrera and Willingham are both on my Fantasy team, and I had a little talk with them in my office this morning.
September 30, 2006 at 11:32 am
Scott Olsen’s on mine, so maybe I’ll pull him aside for a pep talk. Remind him that the back part of the Phillies lineup sucks.
September 30, 2006 at 11:51 am
The great “according to ESPN” Ryan Howard just singled to put the Phillies ahead 4-3 top of the 3rd…
September 30, 2006 at 11:55 am
Milwaukee and St. Louis are scoreless in the 6th..
September 30, 2006 at 12:32 pm
I ran some plausible but pessimistic numbers on playoff odds. The only thing I don’t like about the playoff odds report is that it does not state the implied winning percentage of the match ups. I think it just runs it off winning percentage, which in this case I think understates both PHL and LAN probability of winning. Given that they don’t do the losing thing right now.
So, if you use the following probabilities (again, plausible but pessimistic) for the team to win in each of their games (e.g. in the game today PHL has X% probability to win today, use the same X% tomorrow, etc).
PHL: 80%
LAN: 80%
SDG: 45% (yes, pessimistic, but averaging today and Webb tomorrow)
To clarify, PHL this assumes PHL (and LAN) has an 80% chance to win their game today. Independent of the outcome of today, they have 80% chance of winning tomorrow.
Using these rates, you get:
Team Div WC Total
PHL 0% 21% 21% (this is to force a playoff game)
LAN 61% 37% 98%
SDG 39% 42% 81%
The WC numbers of LAN and SDG are for winning the WC outright. The numbers for PHL is to force a tie-breaker.
The absolute worst case is a SDG-PHL playoff for the WC, which is 19% probability (100% - 81%).
This feels a bit more realistic than the BP playoff odds report. PHL has now won 4 in row vs. the Marlins, and playing very, very well. The Dodgers have won 5 in a row, 6 of their last 7.
These rates feel more accurate than 95% shown on BP.
If you keep PHL and LAN constant, but boost SDG to 60% (less pessimistic), the numbers are:
Team Div WC Total
PHL 0% 12% 12%
LAN 46% 51% 97%
SDG 54% 36% 90%
So, the Pads still have a 80-90% chance of making it in. Good odds. Just have to remember that. Good odds.
September 30, 2006 at 12:34 pm
For all you rooting for the epic collapse, St. Louis is down 2-0 to Milwaukee after 7. Marlins still down 4-3 after not scoring with runners on second and third and 1 out in the 4th.
September 30, 2006 at 12:41 pm
And going crazy pessimistic, (SDG 25%, LAN and PHL both 95%), still gives SD 50% chance of getting in without a playoff game. So those are the worst, worst plausible winning percentages.
So, yes, my mind does play the “what if’s”. If we don’t give up the bombs to LA, we win. We win that game in STL, we win. Etc. But, another way to think about it, if someone said, OK, Jay, what do you think of the Padres having a 50-90% chance of being in the playoffs with 2 games left, and you offered this say in preseason or at the end of April, you bet I take that offer. I would have been laughing at the generosity of the offer. So, while I am not laughing, I am trying to remain grateful that we are in it this late.
September 30, 2006 at 12:54 pm
All right, Clayton, time for another talk with Cabrera and Willingham.
September 30, 2006 at 1:00 pm
Juan Cruz vs. the Padres this year:
2/3 of an inning on May 17, 9 ER
2 innings on August 29, 3 ER
Both games in Arizona.
Huge sample size I know, but it looks good.
September 30, 2006 at 1:01 pm
So much for pitching to Spiezio. Clemens may finally have pitched his last game.
September 30, 2006 at 1:06 pm
Report from Chase: SFOPF (seats full of Padre Fans). Great support over here.
September 30, 2006 at 1:07 pm
Someone needs to explain to me why they blackout games on the computer…
September 30, 2006 at 1:07 pm
No game on MLB Innings, and blacked out on MLB.TV, and, because I am in SF, I get the Giants/Dodgers, but still get blacked out. So go get them Pads.
September 30, 2006 at 1:23 pm
Yeah, what the hell? It’s blacked out due to National TV agreements….yet I can’t see the game on the TV here in Kansas City? WTF?
September 30, 2006 at 1:25 pm
OK, so back to the stone ages (sort of ) with gamecast. How the heck did we not get a hit against this guy in the first?
September 30, 2006 at 1:26 pm
i’m watching the Giants/Dodgers on TV..but I don’t understand why I can’t watch the Padres on the computer…
September 30, 2006 at 1:27 pm
Watching on FOX, listening to Ted and Jerry on the radio. Weird to hear the call before I see it happen.
September 30, 2006 at 1:28 pm
Gonna need some eyes and ears help today. This sucks
September 30, 2006 at 1:29 pm
yes..this does suck..
September 30, 2006 at 1:33 pm
No problem, we’re on it. The one thing I can tell you is that Ted and Jerry were complaining about Gary Darling’s strike zone in the first. Apparently Darling has an extremely generous outer half today.
September 30, 2006 at 1:33 pm
Great time of year for the bats to go ice cold. May be the best favor AZ can do for us is to take this guy out of the game
September 30, 2006 at 1:34 pm
3 strikeouts in the first 2 innings? rough start….1-1 in San Francisco..
September 30, 2006 at 1:35 pm
Barfield gets a good jump and makes a fine running catch on a popup back of second to start the inning.
September 30, 2006 at 1:35 pm
Nelson Cruz has always had wicked stuff, if he’s on look out - if he starts missing he can walk the world.
September 30, 2006 at 1:36 pm
Gonzalez smothers a shot by Quentin, bobbles, then flips to Boomer covering for the second out. Wells got over to first in good shape so the foot doesn’t appear to be bothering him.
September 30, 2006 at 1:36 pm
Why the MMMNN is he pimpin’ AZ when the Padres are tied for 2nd in the NL…? No freakin’ respect.
September 30, 2006 at 1:37 pm
Routine grounder to Branyan finishes the inning. Wells needed five pitches to get through the second.
September 30, 2006 at 1:38 pm
How’s Boomer’s stuff look? Good locations? If we’re still unable to hit, gonna need him to go 6 or 7 shutout innings.
September 30, 2006 at 1:38 pm
geoff, disregard my e-mail, my wife’s busy using the phone
September 30, 2006 at 1:40 pm
Cruz is out? cool! But hasn’t Gonzales had our #?
September 30, 2006 at 1:40 pm
The Colonel was saying Juan Cruz reminds him of Lefty Gomez, physically. That’s amazing to me, that our radio guy has been around long enough to remember Lefty Gomez. Unfortunately he pitched like Lefty Gomez too.
September 30, 2006 at 1:41 pm
Gonzalez throws four straight balls to Blum.
September 30, 2006 at 1:42 pm
Barfield looks confused by Gonzalez’ breaking stuff.
September 30, 2006 at 1:42 pm
hate to see bad luck like that…
September 30, 2006 at 1:43 pm
Not sure where that pitch missed. Thought he had Barfield looking.
September 30, 2006 at 1:44 pm
And Barfield proceeds to wave at a breaking ball down and out of the zone. He probably shouldn’t see another fastball all day.
September 30, 2006 at 1:44 pm
He’s had some really bad AB’s the last week or so
September 30, 2006 at 1:45 pm
The Fox guys are just bad, btw.
September 30, 2006 at 1:45 pm
Damn…
September 30, 2006 at 1:46 pm
u gotta be -ing me
September 30, 2006 at 1:46 pm
Quentin goes up and over to take away a 2-run jack off the bat of Roberts. Damn.
September 30, 2006 at 1:47 pm
ARRRRRRGGGGGH
Still, all things considered, better offensive inning vs Gonzalez. Pitching change seems to help us - thanks Diamondbacks!
September 30, 2006 at 1:49 pm
And the Dodgers and Phillies are winning…
September 30, 2006 at 1:49 pm
Nice grab by Giles.
September 30, 2006 at 1:50 pm
i sure hope these d-plays against us don’t cause us to tighten up… but w/ our d this inning, it looks like we’re still focused
September 30, 2006 at 1:50 pm
Dodgers are on the verge of breaking their game wide open. Bases loaded, one out, Drew at the plate.
September 30, 2006 at 1:51 pm
excellent comment by the announcer there - NL Central is not getting anywhere NEAR the same criticism the NL West got last year and even until the last month…
September 30, 2006 at 1:51 pm
Wells looks very sharp — needed six pitches to get through the third. He’s up to 29 pitches for the game.
September 30, 2006 at 1:51 pm
Wow, what was that, 6 pitches for the 3rd? At this rate, DW can go 12
September 30, 2006 at 1:52 pm
Lofton just scored from 3rd on a fly ball to short center…Durham lobbed the ball in and lofton tagged and scored..3-1 LA
September 30, 2006 at 1:53 pm
Giles hits an utterly non-descript fly ball to LF.
September 30, 2006 at 1:54 pm
Anyone know what time the wedding was that Lynch was going to? If he’s there right now, he’s gotta be dying wondering the score is…
September 30, 2006 at 1:54 pm
I don’t know but I’m glad Fox reminded us about T.O., I had managed to go the whole day without hearing about him and almost forgot.
September 30, 2006 at 1:55 pm
who gets married the same day the Pads are in the thick of the pennant chase? Geez, some people have no sense of priorities…
September 30, 2006 at 1:55 pm
…completely ignoring our 3-game sweep here earlier this year - I think it has more to do w/ them being good 99-2002 when we sucked
September 30, 2006 at 1:55 pm
Just heard someone in the background yell, “Go, Adrian.”
September 30, 2006 at 1:56 pm
oh the pitcher missed w/ location, and Gonzo missed it
September 30, 2006 at 1:56 pm
Those of you in San Diego, how can you guys listen to the FOX announcers?
September 30, 2006 at 1:56 pm
lots of SD fans there
September 30, 2006 at 1:57 pm
where r u geoff?
September 30, 2006 at 1:58 pm
The game is on Fox…
September 30, 2006 at 1:58 pm
Two lazy fly balls and a routine grounder to second. That was uninspired and uninspiring. Gonzalez looks hittable to me, but I guess it’s a little easier when you’re watching on TV.
September 30, 2006 at 1:58 pm
geoff, u got tickets for sunday’s game?
September 30, 2006 at 1:58 pm
This is really getting scary. Dodgers winning, Phillies winning, Pads unable to get a hit vs two nobody pitchers. With Webb going tomorrow. I am officially VERY concerned.
September 30, 2006 at 1:59 pm
#70: Right. So hit the mute button and fire up the radio.
September 30, 2006 at 2:04 pm
some guy named Wood doubles DEEP to left center off Gordon - thought it was a game-tyer off the bat..
September 30, 2006 at 2:04 pm
wild pitch by Gordon…tying run at 3rd, 1 out for FLA
September 30, 2006 at 2:05 pm
You’re as bad as Leitner with the negativity and pessimism, Clayton. Leitner believes the Rox and Fish are lying down so the Pads won’t get in.
Pads have played well this year, so just relax and enjoy the game.
September 30, 2006 at 2:05 pm
Phills up by a run in the bot of 9th, 1 out runner on third.
September 30, 2006 at 2:06 pm
Nice play by Giles. Radio fades to Styx’s “Blue Collar Man.” Not sure the connection but that’s one of their better tunes.
September 30, 2006 at 2:06 pm
Who’s Leitner?
I am not disputing the pessimism (long history w/ the Pads), but I’m not negative
September 30, 2006 at 2:07 pm
Where are the bats, they have left us again, the bats, where are they….wrong time for the bats to go cold. Bomber can’t win the game without some hits and runs.
September 30, 2006 at 2:07 pm
Ramirez grounds out to Gordon, now 2 outs, tying run is on 3rd; Uggla up
September 30, 2006 at 2:08 pm
Uggla hits it to the warning track in front of the 434 sign. Was game over, Pads in the postseason, but Victorino ran it down in DEEP center
September 30, 2006 at 2:08 pm
#80: Ted Leitner is one of the Padres’ radio announcers.
September 30, 2006 at 2:10 pm
For the 2nd time today Hanley Ramirez refuses to let the Pads back in. lol Pads are going to have to win a game if they want to get to the playoffs (as it should be).
Now I’ll get ready for Leitner’s 10-min. rant.
September 30, 2006 at 2:10 pm
Phils win
September 30, 2006 at 2:10 pm
Phil Niekro hit a solo HR..3-2 LA
September 30, 2006 at 2:12 pm
There we go. Catch that!
September 30, 2006 at 2:12 pm
They’re not pulling that one back!
September 30, 2006 at 2:12 pm
Just joking with you, Clayton. All types of emotions are welcome here. Some jubilation would be especially welcomed today.
September 30, 2006 at 2:12 pm
You know what? Screw the Marlins and the Giants, let’s just win this thing already.
September 30, 2006 at 2:13 pm
You’d think that Fox would mention the Padres HR…but not a chance..
September 30, 2006 at 2:13 pm
Nice!!!
September 30, 2006 at 2:13 pm
#90: Well said, BKTF.
September 30, 2006 at 2:14 pm
On gamecast, the HR catches you by surprise…a NICE surprise here
September 30, 2006 at 2:16 pm
Leitner also has a sandwich named after him at local deli D.Z. Akins (an excellent eatery, I might add).
September 30, 2006 at 2:16 pm
If you aren’t getting a replay on PHI-FL, let me just say if Uggla hits that ball ANYWHERE else in that park, or any other freakin’ stadum, the Pads are in the postseason. He crushed it, and Victorino caught in on the dirt in front of the 434 sign
September 30, 2006 at 2:17 pm
Giants have cut the lead to 3-2.
September 30, 2006 at 2:18 pm
Nasty slider in on the hands to get Quentin.
September 30, 2006 at 2:18 pm
A 1-2-3 would be very nice here.
September 30, 2006 at 2:18 pm
1
September 30, 2006 at 2:20 pm
Ugh…Dodgers on tv…Moises Alou absolutely BUTCHERS a double into a triple, allowing Kent to score
September 30, 2006 at 2:20 pm
SF is doing everything possible to give this game to the Dodgers
September 30, 2006 at 2:22 pm
This place came alive with Cammy’s home run. I wouldn’t be surprised at 20 per cent Pad fans and we’re louder.
September 30, 2006 at 2:23 pm
I rewound the Tivo and timed it…it literally took 1 hour 13 minutes for Kent to score from third. Talk about mailing it in!
September 30, 2006 at 2:24 pm
gotta be THRILLED w/ that pitch count!
September 30, 2006 at 2:25 pm
LaMar: How are you posting from Chase Field? WiFi, like Richard from Petco the other night?
September 30, 2006 at 2:25 pm
Atta boy Boomer.
Next couple innings critical - top of the lineup coming up. If I were BB, I’d have Cla and Embree up and getting loose to start the 6th.
September 30, 2006 at 2:29 pm
Let’s make it nice and easy today. 3 more here.
September 30, 2006 at 2:29 pm
is it too much to ask for us to score a few more runs to make this lead a little more safe?
September 30, 2006 at 2:31 pm
Time for a A-Gon bomb.
September 30, 2006 at 2:34 pm
Is that a “Let’s Go Padres” chant I’m hearing?
September 30, 2006 at 2:37 pm
Thank you for the terrible defense.
September 30, 2006 at 2:38 pm
Now let’s have a nice long SF.
September 30, 2006 at 2:38 pm