first pitch: 5:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Woody Williams (10-5, 3.53 ERA) vs Chris Carpenter (15-7, 2.93 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
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Chris Carpenter continues his unlikely transformation from mid-rotation starter to perennial Cy Young Award contender via 1 1/2 years of inactivity due to injury. His is not the recommended career path for pitchers, but it’s hard to argue with success.
Looking for chinks in Carpenter’s armor? Good luck with that. Lefties hit him better than righties, which works in the Padres’ favor until you realize that lefties don’t hit him all that well (.254/.302/.406). His ERA since the All-Star break is a whopping 2.78. Carpenter has been remarkably consistent in 2006. In April his ERA was 1.80, and the following month 3.96. Just calibrating the instruments. In the four months that followed, Carpenter’s ERA has fluctuated mildly between 2.82 and 3.27.
Oh here, I think I found a weakness: Carpenter’s ERA on the road is 4.70. Too bad he’s pitching at home tonight, where it’s 1.46 over 117 innings. Opponents are hitting just .201/.245/.279 against Carpenter at Busch Stadium.
Incidentally, this is why you want home-field advantage in the playoffs if it comes down to Padres vs Cardinals: Carpenter’s road ERA of 4.70 is actually the best among St. Louis starters. As a team, the Cards are 34-47 away from Busch, with a 5.19 ERA. At home, they are much too comfortable, going 46-28 with a 3.86 ERA. As we learned last October, the less you have to face them in their house, the better.
Individual performances against Carpenter? Not much. Current Padres are hitting .200/.271/.369 against him. Mike Cameron (.211/.304/.579 in 19 AB) and Brian Giles (.313/.353/.500 in 16 AB) have had the most success. Russell Branyan and Mike Piazza have each homered off Carpenter and enjoyed some success in limited appearances. Todd Walker has the only other home run, but you can bet he won’t be in the lineup: his overall line against Carpenter is .063/.091/.156 in 32 at-bats. Is that even legal?
On the Padres’ side, Woody Williams hasn’t fared quite as well against his old uniform. Current Cardinals are batting .268/.322/.514 against the veteran. Damage is coming from the weirdest places, too. Williams has manhandled the likes of Scott Rolen (.118/.158/.118 in 17 AB) and Jim Edmonds (.158/.200/.158 in 19 AB) but is getting pummeled by Scott Spiezio (.273/.333/1.091 in 11 AB), Preston Wilson (.353/.450/.882 in 17 AB), Ronnie Belliard (.385/.471/.846 in 13 AB), and Juan Encarnacion (.417/.417/.667 in 13 AB). Williams has faced Albert Pujols just three times, allowing one hit — yes, a home run.
It’s scoreboard watching time, too. Other games of note today include the Phillies at Nationals, Astros at Pirates, and Dodgers at Rockies. I’ve highlighted all of those matchups over at Knuckle Curve for those interested.
Good to take that first one in St. Louis. Good to see Scott Linebrink close out the game while Trevor Hoffman got the night off after his record-setting performance on Sunday.
Today is another day. I know in this division, a 2-game lead seems huge, but the Dodgers aren’t going to go away quietly, so it’s back to taking care of business. Today’s matchup doesn’t necessarily work in the Padres’ favor, but if there’s one thing we’ve learned about the club from San Diego this season, it’s that they battle. If Williams can keep the game close for six innings or so and give his bullpen a shot against the Cardinals’ bullpen, the Padres have a chance.
And right now, a chance is all we need. Go Padres!
250: What about ’96?
That’s right, beatches.
Tomorrow night we should do everything possible to rest Clay, Liney, and Hoffman. Chan Ho, Cassidy, Adkins, Embree, Seanez, there are plenty of teams who would love those 5 in the pen.
#230: It’s all good.
251…Didn’t they have it wrapped up earlier? This will go down to the last series.
Wow. I am sorry for ever doubting. What an amazing victory. They have now defeated the NL’s two best starting pitchers in the span of a week.
254: The Pads and Dodgers both clinched the playoffs on the next-to-last day in 96, when the Marlins (I think) lost. But the division came down to the final game.
In that case…do you know where they sell those home heart defibullator units? A few more of these is going to kill me.
OT – Ollie Perez now 3-13! http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=260926115
It’s way after the game, of course, but I couldn’t get this site to come up at work, but …
re: 20
… barely adequate offense, good starting pitching and good defense to keep you in games, and a great bullpen?
Good defense? The Padres have the best defense in the majors. They have passed the Tigers during the past month. Defense is the Padres strength, and I haven’t seen one article or blog entry or anything else about it all years. I may have just missed it, but good defense doesn’t begin to tell the story.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=116639
Nice win, again. My observations have been made by others:
Horrid game by Barfield. Bad approach, not just the outcomes.
Lame home plate ump on the balls and strikes and Termel’s slide.
We played sloppy, and failed to put it away, forcing us to use Cla, Linebrink and Trevor. That could come back to haunt us.
I wish the Dodgers and Astros would lose. Thankfully Philly lost, giving us a little bit of room on the WC.
You really want the dream match up in the playoffs? How about both the Cardinals AND Houston bottom out, letting Cincinnati take it and somehow we end up matched up with them.
Nice article on Trevor in the Long Beach Press Telegraph.
http://www.presstelegram.com/sports/ci_4402500
Ugly game. Isn’t there anybody hanging around the waiver wires the Padres can snatch up for these last five games to play defense at short or third in the late innings of close games? I dread any of our 3B in the late innings of close games. Where’s Joe Randa?
any word about Giles, who looked like he might have injured himself in a slide at second? Gees, how bout TO, unstable guy? And the DEA at Chargers Park, searching Keels locker, taking him away.
#259: Kevin, I don’t think it’s any secret that pitching and defense are winning games for the Padres. In particular, Mike Cameron and Adrian Gonzalez have made a huge impact because they’ve both been upgrades at their respective positions while improving everyone around them in the process. I’m sure we’ve addressed this here before and I touched on it recently at Baseball Analysts.
Not here very often for IGD…either at the game or doing something else…so…
KRS1 — It is the SDABL league. http://www.sdabl.com I have been playing in it since the mid 90′s. Usually a lot of fun. Yes, there are the occasional guys who think they are a god, but for the most part we are just playing Baseball. I tried softball, but was not ready to give up facing a good fastball or junk just yet.
Friarfan — I notice in your KT evaluation you leave off those moves that did not work. If you are going to keep score (even just this year) I think you have to include Bellhorn, Castilla, etc.
Richard — I am hopeful, but guys like Joe Morgan (who has a vote) say that they are on the fence and don’t think that there is a roll for “Closers” in the HOF b/c they are not important in the “history of the game”. He does talk about how important they are in today’s game, but he said in the context of baseball history their roll is very limited and not important.
Ben B. — I have to work this morning, but I will get you options that would be a good fit for SS.
And nobody said trade KG for Everett as an even swap. I made the comment a couple of months ago and repeat it now…I would sacrifice some of the offense that we get from KG for an upgrade at defense, IF we can use him as a centerpiece to get a legit major league 3B…guys like Crede or Ensberg.
For those of you who asked about Giles…from today’s paper:
The only lasting setback suffered by the visitors came when Brian Giles, rounding second base on Gonzalez’s single to right-center, stumbled and crashed to the dirt. Giles, already gimpy after fouling a ball of his knee, sprained an ankle. The club announced that Giles is unlikely to start tonight’s game but should return within a few days.
I was listening to XX this morning and Scott and Billy Ray, along with Ted, were touting KT for Exec of the Year. I think that’s pretty hard to argue against. They were talking about how KT has a knack of building a strong bullpen on a lot less money than other.
It got me to thinking, how much is Towers bringing someone into the bullpen and how much is related to the Ack and Balsley’s influence and how much is due to Trevor’s influence on the other members of the bullpen?
LaMar, good question…
Tim Kirkjian was just on 1090…said he thinks the Pads have the best chance to knock off the Mets in the playoffs…interesting.
And all this talk of Towers as Exec of the Year is just silly. Stop begging…Strangely enough, up until this season I thought Towers was “Da Man”. I was a HUGE supporter. It is this season that I got very tired of him putting together substandard hitting line-ups, giving us gaping holes in the field/lineup (think 3B this season, CF and LF the last couple of seasons), and generally putting together mediocre teams. This board is all of a sudden abuzz with these great moves that he has made and yet there is no mention of how Bellhorn has fallen flat on his face, Wells has been attrocious, and Castilla was a silly joke. We are also forgetting to mention how weak our minor league system is and how little fruit it has produced.
Don’t get me wrong, I am having a blast this year. I have been rooting for the Pads since I went to my first games in 1983. I was at the Q when there were 9000 or less fans. I have defended Towers for 10 years. I am done with him. We are going to win the West convincingly and yet I have finally broken my love for him.
When he is gone, the two things I will miss more than anything else are his candor and how he puts together decent bullpens on the cheap.
Don’t get me started on Boch.
Hidden bonus last night: by roughing up Carpenter, the Pads may have given Trevor’s CY candidacy a boost. I was listening to ESPN radio yesterday and they were interviewing Rob Neyer. The host (forget who that was) mentioned Trevor for Cy Young and wanted Neyer’s take. Neyer was lukewarm, talking about Webb and Carpenter, but noted one of those two has to finish strong this last week and get to 17 wins, and that even 17 is a REALLY low W total for a CY winner. He seemed inclined to support Hoffman if neither Carpenter or Webb steps up. Webb had a good start last night, but no decision, so still sitting on 16 W’s. We get one more crack at him Sunday. Carpenter’s case took a big blow.
I’ll be honest – I’m not used to the Padres playing this consistently well. Part of what makes these games so intense (for me anyway) is a well-founded (25+ years of living & dying with them) lack of full faith in our ability to come through again and again. But this 8 game stretch has really turned that sentiment on its head, at least for now. Fun stuff, but gut wrenching. Picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue…
#266
Have you looked at Ensberg’s road stats or, more importantly, his BABIP? He’s not the answer, and Everett is a joke – he’s like having Brad Ausmus at shortstop. I’d sacrifice a little defense for offense at short, but not that much. I think Greene should be moved to third next season and the Pads should make a push for stopgap SS like, I dunno, Kennedy or A. Gonzalez or Craig Counsell. And then the Pads can try to develop a shortstop.
And as far as Towers’ moves that “didn’t work out” like Bellhorn and Castilla – Bellhorn was a non-roster invite who was never expectd to be more than a utility guy. Castilla was a joke, of course, but considering that Lawrence was in a major decline phase (and subsequently missed the season with injury), it’s a wash – bad player for bad player. Sadly enough, right now I wish we had Castilla around just to play defense in the late innings. And I have never in my life wished for Vinny Castilla.
And another thing re:Towers. I have never been a huge fan, but he has done well with a limited budget – the Pads are 17th in the majors in payroll this season, about 1/3 of the Yanks payroll. SO they can’t realistically carry an all-star at every position like the Yankees can. They have to do the best they can with a cheap bullpen, home-grown starting pitching and role players.
Amazingly enough, do you realize that 8 of the top 10 teams in payroll might miss the playoffs?
BTW, Here’s the payroll list – top 10 and contenders – numbers are from April.
1. Yankees – 194 Million (not including Abreu and Lidle)
2. Boston – 120 (missed playoffs)
3. Anaheim – 104 (missed playoffs)
4. Whitesox – 103 (missed playoffs)
5 Mets – 101
6. Dodgers – 100
7. Cubs – 94 (missed playoffs)
8. Hou – 93 (not including Clemens, which would leapfrog the astros into 3rd)
9. Atlanta – 90 (missed playoffs; won’t finish above .500)
10. SF – 90 (ditto)
Other Contenders:
Cards -11th -89 million
Phils -12th – 88 (this includes Abreu and Lidle)
Detroit – 14th – 83 million
Padres – 17th – 70 million
Minnesota – 19th – 64m
Oakland – 21st- 62 million