Playoff IGD: Padres vs Cardinals (3 Oct 06)
Tue, Oct 3, 2006
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 1 p.m., PT
television: ESPN
matchup: Jake Peavy (11-14, 4.09 ERA) vs Chris Carpenter (15-8, 3.08 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
buy tickets
Playoffs are upon us. We’ve already analyzed this series to death (pitchers and position players), but I’d just like to point out that Jake Peavy finished the season very strong and Chris Carpenter posted a 4.70 ERA over 97 2/3 innings in 15 starts on the road this season.
Otherwise, it’s good to have our season extended, hopefully by more than just a little bit. Talk it up, and go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 3, 2006 at 7:16 am
Going to the game today…Should be great!!!
Worried about the first couple of innings with Peavy…if he gets through the first 1/2 fo the lineup w/o getting hurt, I think we will find ourselves in good shape.
GO PADS!!!
October 3, 2006 at 7:32 am
My picks … Padres over Cardinals … Mets over Dodgers … Padres over Mets … A’s over Twins … Tigers over Yanks … A’s over Yanks … Padres over A’s … book it!
October 3, 2006 at 7:37 am
So, according to the padres website, it tentatively looks like Bellhorn and Klesko in, Johnson and Sledge out. What a travesty!
October 3, 2006 at 7:49 am
3
if the report is true, it’s unbelievable. Bellhorn has not played in a month, and he’s been awful since the all star break.
How can they not have at least Johnson on the roster? So there’s no one that’s adequate defensively if Cam, Giles or DR goes down?
Holy ****. I am so disgusted by this.
October 3, 2006 at 7:58 am
Jake knows what he has to do in this first game. Here is a quote from him during an interview over at madfriars.com. “I got to find a happy medium where I got the throttle pinned down, but it’s not, you know, you know, find somewhere a happy medium, put my RPMs where I can still have the same intensity and life on my pitches in the seventh and eighth inning tomorrow”
I think he is going to ROCK! Padres take game one 4-1
October 3, 2006 at 8:06 am
4
It is still undecided at this point, but that is what the Padres.com website predicted and I imagine it is pretty accurate
October 3, 2006 at 8:07 am
Klesko is fine but Bellhorn? WTF??? Termel Sledge really doesn’t do much for me but with his speed and his ability to hit the long ball I would have had a hell of a time leaving him off the roster. Maybe they are hoping they will get the 2004 Bellhorn, didn’t he hit a couple of big homers in the playoffs after BoSox fans gave him tons of hell for striking out all season long?
October 3, 2006 at 8:08 am
LynchMob, I hope you are right, but I would really like to see the Doggers go down by the hands of the Pad’s and not the Mets. I am rootin’ for a SoCal NLCS.
October 3, 2006 at 8:18 am
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....ment-28095
Someone from the UT must have been reading my posts yesterday, because they ran a feature on them:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
October 3, 2006 at 8:20 am
whoops my bad on the long link
October 3, 2006 at 8:22 am
I have seen written somewhere (either SI.com or ESPN.com), and my friend heard on LA radio, that the Doggers are “Co-champions” of the NL West. What is up with that doo-doo. The doggers are the wild card team, not co-champs. They are the first losers in the NL West. Unbelievable that some folks really, really can’t admit that the Pad’s arethe winners of the West again.
October 3, 2006 at 8:37 am
Not logical but Bellhorn has been with the team all the way and Johson and Sledge are callups. They are probably told when they get here in Sept that they may not be on the post season team. I would imagine its baseball tradition of some kind. Bellhorn is really lousy and its tough on johnson because he played last year, although as I recall, he let one get over his head in St Louis.
I keep hearing on ESPN is, does the AL have to play the NL, can’t the NL just go home so the Great Al teams can play each other. No only an east coast bias, but an AL bias too.
Is 1090 going to broadcast the Padre games or are we going to be treated to more mighty ducks hockey?
October 3, 2006 at 8:44 am
Kiel - re: 9 … not sure what you mean … sounds like you tried to post a comment with a link in it? It shouldn’t matter how long a link is … the software will display it abbreviated, but it will work. But what the comment software doesn’t allow is comments with 2 or more links in them … those go on a queue that I think GY needs to ‘approve’ before they get posted. Does that describe what you’re up to?
October 3, 2006 at 8:49 am
re: 10, 11 … given that we have the WildCard and therefore no need to have a playoff game for the NL West title, it does seem to me that that introduces the concept of co-champs into MLB … the Dodgers finished with the same record as the Padres … and that does taint things … the Padres get the bone of getting the NL West champ slot in the playoffs and the “bragging rights” of having won the tie-breaker … but the fact remains that both teams finished with identical W-L records … bleh … so I’ll join PF4L (re: #8) and hope that the Padres can personally administer a tie-breaker
October 3, 2006 at 8:56 am
I know Bellhorn has been here all year and that’s why he should get a full share of the playoff money but at this point it should be about winning the series. I heard that Mike Maroth isn’t on the Tigers PS roster because he has sucked down the stretch why the hell would they waste a spot with Bellhorn. Not to mention it’s not like Ben Johnson or Termel (to a lesser extent) were just call-ups. Both have been with the team for periods of time throughout the season. Obviously guys like P-Mac and Cust or Knott should be left off but with all the subs and pinch runners Bochy uses especially late in the game I can’t imagine any logical reason to leave Johnson or Sledge off while Bellhorn just takes up a spot on the bench. That also makes me REALLY wonder who else made/didn’t make it.
October 3, 2006 at 8:59 am
PF4L: and we can curse the Giants for keeping up that illusion.
Whatever makes the Dodgers’ fan happy, I guess.
The record will show that the Padres own the Dodgers 13-5 in 2006.
I like what I hear from Peavy. He’ll be dominating.
Go Padres! Let hit Carpenter around again. Earlier this time and not waiting until the later innings.
October 3, 2006 at 9:14 am
Padres are on ESPN TV & radio today. I don’t know what station that is here in SD, but I will try to find out. Anyone know?
October 3, 2006 at 9:15 am
It’s also not like we are going to walk around saying “Co-Champs” we won the WEST not the wild card. Thay can say whatever they want but we don’t have to say Co infront of our championship.
October 3, 2006 at 9:18 am
The Padres are on ESPN and FOX today for TV which for me on COX cable is Channel 3 and 6. From what it sounds like is FOX’s telecast is just ESPN’s feed with a FOX6 logo in the corner. It will be on XX1090AM radio as well.
October 3, 2006 at 9:23 am
It looks like 800AM XSPN, TJ/SD, or 98.9FM XMOR although I am not completely sure the game will be on the FM station since they only have an x in the “shows carried” column and “x” = EXPN. I think it is mostly X-games stuff, but I am not sure.
http://espnradio.espn.go.com/e.....e?query=ca
October 3, 2006 at 9:24 am
KRS1 - I hope you are right, it only shows ESPN radio on the Padre’s website.
October 3, 2006 at 9:34 am
Oh seriously? I just assumed it would be on XX. I am almost positive that it was last year. We’ll see I guess but I am pretty sure XX has it on.
October 3, 2006 at 9:38 am
Well, they are talking about the BP show on the radio now, so it sure sounds like it will be on
October 3, 2006 at 9:39 am
16 and everyone else:
The game will be streaming on ESPN’s NY affiliate:
http://www.1050espnradio.com
Twins- A’s are on right now.
October 3, 2006 at 9:44 am
Re: 7 and 13 (and others)…
From a Boston perspective: Bellhorn wasn’t intended to be a 2004 starter but injuries forced him into that role and he did very well. Struck out a lot that year but also walked a lot and was on base when he needed to be. In the playoffs, while taking a lot of heat from some Sox fans, he broke up Moose’s no-hitter in ALCS Game 1, and far more critically, scored the winning runs with a homer in Game 6, shut up the NYY crowd after Pedro let them back into it with a homer in Game 7, and put the Sox on top for good after a terrifying back-and-forth struggle with a homer in World Series Game 1.
Clearly he hasn’t played like the same guy in 2005 and 2006, and being rusty on top of struggling won’t help. I’m not here to tell the folks questioning his (potential) selection that they’re crazy or anything, but I do think the experiences he had in Boston’s playoffs count for something. And if he comes through with a playoff home run, let me just note for the record that I won’t be surprised.
(And, yes, I may be the only one!)
As far as “co-champions” we had the exact same situation last year with the Red Sox and Yankees. MLB’s position was that a playoff is only needed to determine postseason participation, not seeding; they didn’t technically have any problem with co-champions. But I can tell you you’d be hard-pressed to find a Boston fan or team employee who would ever claim the title.
October 3, 2006 at 9:49 am
But wait, I’m sure the Mighty ducks are playing the Toranto Maple Leafs at 4pm EST today. Let me check the Ducks schedule and get back to you. Sometimes they will put playoff padre baseball on like AM 510 KIDTS, also known as Kidiots, if there is an important Anaheim Mighty Ducks game that needs to be broadcast into San Diego.
October 3, 2006 at 9:52 am
Geoff,
Your in-depth matchups of the Pads and Cards are excellent. Better than espn.com and foxmlb.com, I think. Also unbiased, which is a tough trick. Anyway, your wickedly honest paragraph about Pujols being the best hitter in baseball earned Ducksnorts a clean-up spot today on our main page. Everybody’s picking the Pads, so I hope it’s no jinx.
Go get ‘em,
Walter Roark (editor)
http://www.baseballnooz.com/
(All baseball, all the time—over
220 blog feeds + news sources)
October 3, 2006 at 9:53 am
BP show just said that XX will have the game starting at 1:05pm
October 3, 2006 at 9:55 am
OK, forget my espn link — looks like the game is not streaming. Sorry about that
October 3, 2006 at 10:03 am
I can understand wanting to roll the dice w/ Bellhorn based on ‘04…and prior playoff performance should count for something…but COME ON! The guy is clearly not the player he was even 2 years ago. And I just can’t understand how we decide we don’t need any extra OF’s besides Klesko - who CANNOT play the OF even when he’s been getting tons of innings out there, which he clearly hasn’t been lately!
October 3, 2006 at 10:09 am
Maybe they are thinking Branyon and Walker can be at 3rd and be 4th outfielders as well. I don’t like it but that seems to be the only thing that makes sense.
October 3, 2006 at 10:12 am
KRS1 - that could be it, but that frightens me from a “D” perspective…
October 3, 2006 at 10:13 am
Belhorn = Swith-hitting utility infielder to be used only in the late innings during a double-switch when the pitcher is removed.
October 3, 2006 at 10:13 am
…and I loved you on In Living Color, by the way
Correct me if I’m wrong - rosters can be changed between LDS and LCS (assuming you make it there), right?
October 3, 2006 at 10:15 am
I fully understand that Bellhorn has had some huge postseason moments.
But:
1. Young, old, veteran, rookie . . . doesn’t matter — Johnson is a better player. Bellhorn has basically sucked for the past two years
2. The Pads have no defensive outfield options coming off the bench.
3. Who would a pinch runner be in a big spot? Bowen? You’ve gotta have someone with a little speed off the bench . . .
Whatever. I guess if Bellhorn’s there, we’ll just have to cross our fingers and hope for the best . . .
October 3, 2006 at 10:15 am
Bellhorn is probably the emergency LF-er
October 3, 2006 at 10:19 am
Thanks, Walter (#26); much appreciated.
One more set of previews at Baseball Analysts. I make my prediction there, albeit with very little confidence. I expect this series to be wide open.
Hardball Times has their previews up as well. Man, I can’t wait for the game to start. This is killing me (in a good way, of course!).
October 3, 2006 at 10:20 am
Clayton
Trust me, it frightens me the “D” perspective too!!!
Bellhorn = Switch hitting strikeout machine who is also the 4th option at 2nd base, the 4th option at 3rd base, and probably the 3rd option at 1st base.
Hopefully I eat my words on Bellhorn but the way he has played this season it looks like we just wasted a roster spot to me.
October 3, 2006 at 10:21 am
The Playoffs have begun….Twins/A’s are under way…
October 3, 2006 at 10:32 am
I agree with all of you…i would prefer Johnson to Belhorn….he just doesn’t add anything to the roster..
October 3, 2006 at 10:39 am
This is typical Boch, he would rather play 2 washed up vets than 2 up and coming rookies.
October 3, 2006 at 10:41 am
I also dont understand why the pads are going with 11 pitchers?
Peavy
Young
Wells
Woody
Adkins
Embree
Hensley
Meredeth
Linebrink
Hoffy
Why do they need a brocail or seanez?
October 3, 2006 at 10:44 am
Also do the pads really need to keep bowen on the playoff roster? I mean he’s a good player but do tehy need 3 catchers when they dont have a game every night?
October 3, 2006 at 10:46 am
Steve, I think your comment in #42 is right on…Bochy LOVES himself some catchers, but there is no reason Bard and Piazza can’t handle the playoffs by themselves. It’s not like Bowen is better defensively than Bard, right? Or faster on the basepaths, for that matter.
October 3, 2006 at 10:50 am
Bowen is faster than bard on the base paths but thats like saying that A gon is faster than Piazza it really does not matter, and they are not going to have him pinch run in a playoff game.
October 3, 2006 at 10:53 am
I’m sure Agon is proud he’s faster than someone!
October 3, 2006 at 11:10 am
1050 ESPN radio is streaming for me . . . I thought it would be a problem, with the licensing rights.
I’m listening to Twins-A’s and its distracting me from any anxiety I have about the Pads game
2-0 A’s in the 5th, by the way.
October 3, 2006 at 11:15 am
since i don’t care who wins or care if i jinx it…Zito has a no hitter so far..
October 3, 2006 at 11:16 am
Zito’s adding a few bucks to his next contract
October 3, 2006 at 11:16 am
Re:47
That didn’t take long!
October 3, 2006 at 11:18 am
wow..that’s a power i didn’t even know i had…
October 3, 2006 at 11:19 am
Wow, Twins going with Nevin as their DH … ouch!
October 3, 2006 at 11:28 am
re: 13
That’s incorrect. There are no co-champs in MLB. The Padres won the West, the way that baseball has it set up. Just like the Yankees won the AL East last season.
October 3, 2006 at 11:32 am
51
Nevin has 3 career HRs off of Zito. I think that’s why he’s playing
October 3, 2006 at 11:35 am
Plus, that’s Nevin’s natural position.
October 3, 2006 at 11:36 am
I imagine Nevin is also playing because Zito is a LHP.
The way the article on Padres.com makes it sound, Sledge or BJ aren’t roster options because we’re activating Klesko and Greene.
Wasn’t Sledge active on 8/31? I still think we should have BJ somehow, he really round out the roster as a righty OF.
October 3, 2006 at 11:41 am
BTW, the Ho is in our playoff pen. WHAT?!?!?!
Over cassiday and Seanez.
God lord, they do love them some veterans. Talk about trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Also, it looks like Blum is going to be our starting SS.
October 3, 2006 at 11:43 am
A’s have bases loaded, one out, still up 2-0 in the top of the 7th.
October 3, 2006 at 11:46 am
Not sure if this got posted, but here are starting lineups:
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....p;c_id=mlb
Who else is:
A. stuck at work
B. as nervous as I am
C. as excited as I am
D. all of the above
October 3, 2006 at 11:49 am
#58
D. without question..I won’t be able to see the game till I get home around 4 so I’ll catch up with everyone after the game..
October 3, 2006 at 11:50 am
A and C.
October 3, 2006 at 11:51 am
Does anyone know what Woody’s “personal issues” were last year?
October 3, 2006 at 11:52 am
Anyone else sorta inexplicably miss Rondell White?
October 3, 2006 at 11:52 am
56 - I don’t believe Seanez is eligible, but I’d rather have Cassidy. We already have Hensley for long relief.
October 3, 2006 at 11:54 am
I thought Seanez came a day too late, but I guess I’m wrong. Playoff roster:
Clay Hensley, Trevor Hoffman, Scott Linebrink, Cla Meredith, Chan Ho Park, Jake Peavy, Rudy Seanez, Woody Williams and Chris Young. The left handers are Alan Embree and David Wells.
Josh Bard, Josh Barfield, Mark Bellhorn, Geoff Blum, Rob Bowen, Russell Branyan, Mike Cameron, Brian Giles, Adrian Gonzalez, Khalil Greene, Ryan Klesko, Mike Piazza, Dave Roberts and Todd Walker.
October 3, 2006 at 11:55 am
58: I’m with you there. Can’t wait for the game. Can’t wait. The Twins game is keeping me from going nuts.
62: Always liked Rondell — seems like a good guy, always plays hard, and can hit a little. Good to see him doing well for the twinkies (HR!!!)
October 3, 2006 at 12:00 pm
We kept Bellhorn over Johnson or Sledge?! I hope nothing happens to our outfielders as we have no one to replace them. Bellhorn has been a total waste for over a month. No Sweeney, no Cassidy, no Thompson, but Chan Ho and Seanez?! Seanez hasn’t done anything but hinder us and he gets to be on the playoff roster. CHP hasn’t proven that he’s got his form back. Typical Boch. Always goes with the veterans.
October 3, 2006 at 12:08 pm
I’m really surprised that Seanez and CHP are on the roster. Very puzzling. Boch barely even used Seanez since they signed him.
I guess Seanez would get the nod over Sweeney, b/c you want power pitchers in the playoffs. But Rudy has been crappy all year.
October 3, 2006 at 12:10 pm
Yeah, I’d also rather have Cassidy, Sweeney, or Adkins over Seanez in that order. I can’t comment on CHP, I mean I’m assuming he’s “back” or they wouldn’t have him active. I guess…
Too bad we can’t have an extra batter instead, but I guess we’re locked into it with a 14/11 batter/pitcher ratio.
Can CHP play LF in a pinch?
October 3, 2006 at 12:14 pm
CHP would probably be better out there than Klesko!
I bet you could stick Woody out there, and he wouldn’t embarrass himself.
twins game is already in the 9th!
October 3, 2006 at 12:15 pm
The Big Hurt. Oh my god!
October 3, 2006 at 12:17 pm
Can these #’s be right for Jesse Crain (I know, who?)
last year: 79.2 IP - 25K
this year: 76.2 IP - 60K
What possible explanation could there be for that? Was he still growing last year?
October 3, 2006 at 12:18 pm
I wonder if the plan is to play Bellhorn and have him get injured somehow so we can get BJ in IF we make it to the NLCS.
October 3, 2006 at 12:18 pm
Does Bruised Ego count maybe?
October 3, 2006 at 12:18 pm
Zito: 8IP 4H 1ER 3BB 1K 92 pitches
October 3, 2006 at 12:20 pm
re: 72 … don’t need injury … roster can change between series’ …
October 3, 2006 at 12:23 pm
How is Adkins not on the staff over CHP and Seanez?
October 3, 2006 at 12:23 pm
Why are we locked into 11 pitchers? Is there some real reason other than “The Book” that they do that for a 5 game series?
Also, just wanted to jump on the “my, oh, my, them’s some really awful roster decisions” bandwagon. And mightily pray to the Great Noodly…
http://www.venganza.org/
…that it don’t bite us in the ***.
October 3, 2006 at 12:24 pm
Is experience that much of a factor? Must be.
October 3, 2006 at 12:24 pm
Young Mr. Zito is earning himself some future contract dollars today.
October 3, 2006 at 12:25 pm
77 - on Padres.com it noted we have to go into the postseason with the same configuration (14 batters, 11 pitchers) as we went into September with.
Or at least I think that’s what it said.
October 3, 2006 at 12:25 pm
Re: 76 - I had the same question. Where’s Adkins? Did Kruk or Gwynn eat him?
October 3, 2006 at 12:27 pm
Would it be wrong to drill Pujols in the spleen to get him out of the lineup?
October 3, 2006 at 12:28 pm
Twins looking to rally in the bottom of the 9th. Cuddyer triples to start of Huston Street. He blew 11 saves this year.
October 3, 2006 at 12:29 pm
Torii Hunter!
October 3, 2006 at 12:29 pm
Thought that was going to squirt through.
October 3, 2006 at 12:33 pm
80 I read the same thing. You have to into the PO’s with September’s splits.
October 3, 2006 at 12:43 pm
Thanks, Masticore & PF4L. I see the reference you mention. Not clear on the reason for that rule, tho’.
October 3, 2006 at 12:48 pm
maybe they’re thinking having Bellhorn/Seanez on the roster for short series is not as big of a deal as having them on for a best of seven.
I don’t know . . . grasping at straws
October 3, 2006 at 1:01 pm
Alright guys only 9 more minutes! It’s crazy how excited I am right now. This is going to be fun!!!
October 3, 2006 at 1:01 pm
Hi, all! Anyone else using Gameday? I am using a new enhanced version of Gameday and it looks great.
October 3, 2006 at 1:02 pm
Gotta say, Bellhorn and Park make no sense to me. I can find ways to justify Bowen and Seanez, both Bellhorn and Park haven’t contributed in a long time, and Park didn’t look close to game ready the other day.
Oh well. Game on!
October 3, 2006 at 1:02 pm
For all those concerned, the game is on 1090.
October 3, 2006 at 1:04 pm
Lineups by wOBA (park-adjusted):
3B Russell Branyan, .447
CF Mike Cameron, .396
C Mike Piazza, .393
1B Adrian Gonzalez, .391
RF Brian Giles, .372
LF Dave Roberts, .359
2B Josh Barfield, .348
SS Geoff Blum, .313
1B Albert Pujols, .448
RF Chris Duncan, .415
3B Scott Rolen, .393
CF Jim Edmonds, .358
LF Preston Wilson, .347
SS David Eckstein, .336
2B Ron Belliard, .299
C Yadier Molina, .272
The Cardinals have a little more at the upper end, but the Padres’ lineup is considerably deeper. I didn’t expect that when I decided to look it up.
October 3, 2006 at 1:05 pm
Also, who thought Russell Branyan would hit like Pujols for a month when we traded for him? Anybody?
October 3, 2006 at 1:07 pm
re: 95 - oh I sure did. Yep, go back and look it up, I was TOTALLY on the Branyan train. Really excited about that one, in fact I think I said “Wrap up the NL West Title baby! Muscles Branyan is coming to town!!”
October 3, 2006 at 1:09 pm
re: 96 … me too … look it up!
October 3, 2006 at 1:09 pm
Thanks for running the numbers, Richard. That is some sick production from Branyan. I thought he might be lightning in a bottle, but nowhere near what he actually did. Let’s hope he keeps it going.
October 3, 2006 at 1:09 pm
Also, can you imagine having two guys in the lineup that hit worse than Geoff Blum?
October 3, 2006 at 1:09 pm
Game on….
October 3, 2006 at 1:10 pm
What’s estimated time until first pitch?
October 3, 2006 at 1:10 pm
0-2 count… don’t give up a hit on 0-2… please…
October 3, 2006 at 1:10 pm
IT’S ON, Y’all!!!!!!!
October 3, 2006 at 1:11 pm
I really hate Eckstein. Guy just fouls off a lot of pitches.
October 3, 2006 at 1:11 pm
yeah, this enhanced thing is cool shizz
October 3, 2006 at 1:12 pm
early read on LaRussa’s strategy is to get Peavy to throw a lot of pitches?
October 3, 2006 at 1:13 pm
I *love* it when pitchers throw strikes!
October 3, 2006 at 1:13 pm
Goddamn right. Strike three.
October 3, 2006 at 1:14 pm
bases empty w/ Poo-holes up - best outcome we can get
October 3, 2006 at 1:15 pm
yikes - 7 for 14 w/ 2 HR’s off Peavy!
October 3, 2006 at 1:15 pm
no fastballs for pujols
October 3, 2006 at 1:15 pm
Hell yes!
October 3, 2006 at 1:16 pm
Jake looks a little better than last October, no? Nice job there.
October 3, 2006 at 1:16 pm
So, it looks like Peavy is on his game.
October 3, 2006 at 1:16 pm
95.1 mph baby - take a seat poo holes
October 3, 2006 at 1:16 pm
Does Fox have their radar gun turned up (like they usually do in the playoffs) or is Peavy really throwing 94 mph 2-seamers?
October 3, 2006 at 1:16 pm