Might As Well Jump
Thu, Oct 5, 2006
by Geoff Young
Hey, if it’s good enough for David Lee Roth, it’s good enough for me. Oh, wait, I’m the guy who’s supposed to be talking everyone down from the ledge. But then, I’d be the only one jumping.
Ah, who am I kidding. It’s only baseball. 
Analysis? We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Analysis
Not much to say, really. The Padres got dominated by a lousy pitcher. And from Section 308, it looked like plate umpire Bill Welke was a bit unclear on the concept of balls and strikes. That’s about it.
Blood Type: B Positive
Okay, so what are some good things that happened on Thursday at Petco Park? It was tough, but I managed to find a few:
- Navy SEALS parachuting onto the field before the game
- Trevor Hoffman receiving a guitar autographed by AC/DC’s Angus Young before the game
- Trevor Hoffman catching the ceremonial first pitch from Lee Smith
- Ryan Klesko lining a sharp pinch single to left in what might have been his final home at-bat as a member of the San Diego Padres
- Tremendous crowd support throughout the game even when the team was busy sucking eggs
- Not having to watch the Cardinals celebrate in our house this year
And look, I even have some photos. The astute (or even just conscious) among you will recognize that there are no shots from the game itself. I actually took several of those, but they’re all variations on the “Padres not doing anything” theme that we’re trying to avoid here.
Eleven more wins to the world championship. Keep the faith. Even when it makes absolutely no sense to do so, keep the faith.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 5, 2006 at 9:40 pm
On the bright side, at least there are 2 other teams in the same situation as us. Actually, the Dodgers are in a much better situation than us, since they are now going home and get to face Steve Trachsel and Oliver Perez in their next two games. However, take solace in the fact that the Twins are way more screwed than we are. They are going on the road, where they are significantly worse, to face Haren, Harden, and Zito, and Santana can only pitch one of those games.
Oh well. Back to us. The only game that matters at this point is Saturday’s. Go Chris Young. Starts with one win.
October 5, 2006 at 10:08 pm
GY, I admire your courage for getting this out tonight. I, personally, am hoping to be able to eat solid foods in a week or so. It’s okay, though, it may be forcing me to start weaning myself from Friar Franks.
October 5, 2006 at 10:17 pm
Variations on a theme Geoff…I wasn’t too happy about the ball and strike calls, but it can be hard to tell from right field, so I didn’t mention it over at my column…
Pitching did it’s job..the hitters look like they’re squeezing the bats so tight they could use the scrapings from the batter’s box for a honky-tonk floor…
October 5, 2006 at 11:02 pm
Zone was weird. I was watching the game without blogging and thought it was OK. Then read the blogs, and, as soon as I did, outside curve balls became strikes. Some collaboration was the gameday balls and strikes. It was showing balls well out of their little box that would normally be green, were red for called strike. It happened at least three times once I started paying attention, two were on the first two pitches to Bard. At the end of game, it seemed to get normal again, but it was crazy for innings 5-8. And, seemingly in a biased way. Either the Pads weren’t throwing to that spot or they were not getting the call.
Petco sucks out the will to hit out of the Pads. How many times have I seen them get shut down at home by so-so pitchers. Does not seem to happen on the road.
We win the next one, we are only one win away from making it very, very interesting.
Let’s go.
October 5, 2006 at 11:36 pm
Unfortunately that one win away from making it very, very interesting might have to come against Carpenter. Actually, now that I think about it, it seems like La Russa would save Carpenter for game 5 so that there would be a possibility he wouldn’t have to use him. But first we need to win Saturday. Go Chris Young.
October 5, 2006 at 11:40 pm
In the In-Game a LOT of us were griping about balls and strikes. However, I ended my “analysis” with the following paragraph:
One last thing: in Game 2’s In-Game Discussion, a lot of us voiced displeasure with the umpires’ calls. It looked like Weaver was getting a lot of strike calls that Boomer was not getting. However, I couldn’t find one report or quote suggesting the Padres thought they were getting the raw end of the balls-and-strikes calls. I can’t help but wonder if the view from the CF camera was compounded by the trajectories from one right-handed pitcher compared to one from a left-handed pitcher… It looks like we were griping about nothing.
October 6, 2006 at 12:33 am
I dunno…. I was at a friend’s watching the game, so didn’t see any of the IGD until after the game, but I commented several times on the really awful calls by the plate ump. I think it was real.
Once we were down 2-0 I really felt like the game was over. Is this team unable to come from behind, or does it just feel like that?
I only see two outcomes for this series… a sweep or the Pads win it. Unfortunately, I think Cards have about a 70% chance of getting the sweep. If they don’t win Saturday, though, it’s ours (no chickens were sacrificed in making of this prediction, only guts involved were a vague feeling from deep in author’s own).
Can’t remember Geoff sounding so low. Stay away from sharp objects, even sharp notes, for a while, my friend.
And in a dark mood, want to thank all of you. Despite the (justifiable) anger, hysteria, and desperation reflected in the IGD, there were two notes that had me LOL… thanks, Jay,for #382 - i love a self-deprecating sense of humor… and friarfan, #154 was, to me anyway, the funniest post of the year! So thanks, guys, today especially appreciated.
Let’s kick some redass on Saturday!
October 6, 2006 at 1:58 am
A few quotes from the Moores from an article at Padres.com:
“It has been like men playing boys.”
Not sure what he means. I guess he feels the two losses showed the Cardinals to be overwhelmingly stronger. But then he goes on to say that he feels the Padres are the better team.
Moores also says Bochy “has exceeded all expectations” and that Towers, “has been a better GM under Sandy Alderson,” that he has more confidence in Towers now than he did three years ago, and that the “combination of Towers and Sandy has worked.”
About next year:
“I wouldn’t begin to tell Sandy what to do in that situation,” he said. “Those guys work for him. They don’t work for me.”
Hmm…
October 6, 2006 at 4:05 am
Why are we pitching to Pujols? Especially when first base was open? The one guy who isn’t suppose to beat us has beat us twice now.
October 6, 2006 at 4:33 am
On the “bright” side, 3 more wins will still take the series.
But first, we need to start with one.
October 6, 2006 at 5:11 am
Man, that was disappointing yesterday. Just have to focus on Saturday’s game, I guess. CY’s going, so we should have a pretty good shot.
I don’t know what else to say.
October 6, 2006 at 6:07 am
The really “sad” part is, the Padres had the 2nd best record in the NL. They had a pretty good regular season. If the Padres just lay down this way that’s a real sucky way for it to end after how hard they worked to make the post season.
We gotta take it one game at a time now. Hopefully CYoung can rescue us from the depths and extend the season just one more day. Heck, maybe being on the road will help somehow, and our hitting will come alive.
October 6, 2006 at 6:41 am
The bad thing about a 5-game series? It can turn really against you in a big hurry.
The great thing about a 5-game series? You can turn it back your way in a big hurry.
As has been said above, it starts with one win. One little win in a 5-gamer and suddenly the opponent’s margin has been reduced by 1/2. Now they’re looking at game 4, lacking momentum, and thinking “we better win that one or we’re facing elimination”, meanwhile you’re starting to get your legs under you.
My point: on Saturday, we’re either done with this sham or suddenly in a really improved position. Much more so than getting the first win down 3-0 in a 7 gamer. You still have a mountain to climb in that situation, and the other team is still confident.
We’re playing our best card (no pun intended or wanted) on Saturday. Chris Young on the road is about the closest we can get to a sure thing. I more look at his road ERA, not the 20-something games w/o an L, b/c in a lot of those games this year he’s left the game behind and we rallied to win.
Assuming we win for the moment, I really hope LaRussa goes w/ Carpenter in Game 4. It will look and feel like a desparate move, and our guys will be seeing him in the same setting they pounded him in last week. Then, where does TLR go for Game 5?
October 6, 2006 at 6:57 am
I can tell you that Gonzalez and Bard both were chirping after strike calls during the game, and I’m not sure I’ve seen that from either player before. Gonzo actually had to turn and walk away, and he’s usually real mellow. As for Bard, he’s a catcher so he has to pick his spots with that sort of thing. I’ve he’s griping, there’s probably a problem.
October 6, 2006 at 7:13 am
14: Bard had the two worst calls. In his next-to-last bat, two low breaking balls that weren’t even all that close. If you measured between the closest of those, and the high inside strike to Roberts in his last AB, it’d be about 4 feet.
We didn’t do anything with the pitches that were in the zone, but it must be comforting to a pitcher to know that he can throw something that can’t be hit and still get it called a strike. Our best chance to score was probably Klesko on that first pitch fastball. If he centers it, it wouldn’t have landed yet.
I know what Moores means. Have the Cardinals made a single mistake this series or in 2005? Whereas it seems that every time we so much as bobble a ball, it’s 2 run inning. It’s not Bochy’s style, but it might be time to bust Pujols with 4 inside. So what if things get nasty, if they hit a Padre in retaliation (below the head) at least we’d have a baserunner.
October 6, 2006 at 7:22 am
I’m confident CY will ptich a good game, I’m confident our defense will be decent to good. I’m not confident our offense can hit the side of a barn door much less a little white ball traveling at 90 MPH. What I want to see is a regular game, where they get some runs and we gets some runs and then we play. Yesterday, we clearly beat ourselves by having lousy AB after lousy AB. The formula for Sat is for the hitters to be loose and have a “don’t give a ****” attitude. I say they party all night Friday, then show up to the New Bush giggling like school girls and go out there loose as catholoc girls and hit. And please, don’t ptich to Albert.
Glavine was a buzzsaw last night. My all time fav pitcher. Looking old. Nomar lasted all season to breakdown in game 2 of the NLDS? BTW, the Mets can hit, the Yanks can hit and for a Padre fan, its like finding water in the desert, you just want to watch it all happen.
October 6, 2006 at 7:23 am
15
Maybe our best chance for a baserunner! Start leaning into ‘em boys! Take a lesson from Coach!
(that’s a Cheers reference - for those of you under the age of 30, it was a show set in a bar in Boston starring Ted Danson and his ever-receding hairline and ever-expanding toupee)
October 6, 2006 at 7:33 am
Clayton: Not just a Cheers reference — an early Cheers reference, BW (”Before Woody”)
October 6, 2006 at 7:38 am
From the “It’s Never Too Early To Look At Next Year” department, from MLBTraderumours.com, as to sluggers available as free agents after the WS:
“Need power? Teams like the Astros, A’s, and Padres could use some pop. Here are the 2007 MLB free agents with the highest slugging percentages this year.
Moises Alou - .571
Aramis Ramirez - .561
Alfonso Soriano - .560
Barry Bonds - .545
Frank Thomas - .545
Carlos Lee - .540
Ray Durham - .538
David Dellucci - .530
Greg Norton - .520
Rich Aurilia - .518
Nomar Garciaparra - .505
Mike Piazza - .501″
October 6, 2006 at 7:45 am
14 & 15, Yeah, I saw the chirping from our hitters, but either no one thought to ask the hitters, or the hitters wouldn’t comment. But no articles I read even suggested that the hitters were questioned. You would expect a, “…I don’t think [the umpiring] was an issue, we just need to start hitting.”
October 6, 2006 at 7:45 am
GY Re: 14 Bard got thrown out of a game earlier in the year for arguing balls and strikes, he then proceeded to roll his batting helmet at the ump as he was walking away. I was in section 108 for that game and it was the funniest thing I have ever seen.
October 6, 2006 at 7:56 am
Re: #8, I would agree with Moores that KT ahs been a better GM under Alderson, and this year I have gone from a KT hater to a KT supporter.
As far a Boch did he really surpass expectations? I really think he made a 95 win team a 88 win team. The NL west was still down this year and the pads could have finished it early if they did not lay a fat Egg after the all star break.
October 6, 2006 at 8:03 am
15
Definitely need to something to get everyone going here. A Pujols brushback would not be a bad idea. I think he’s got one coming to him anyway, for that walkoff HR last week.
22
No way this was a 95 win team, not with the injury to Greene, and Branyan/Walker/Bellhorn playing 3B. I think 88 wins is about right — but you are correct, they could have put it away a lot earlier.
October 6, 2006 at 8:03 am
Steve, I’m not Boch’s biggest fan, but there is no way this was ever a 95 win team…
October 6, 2006 at 8:04 am
22: Wow, that’s the only time I’ve ever heard this team referred to as a 95 win squad. We’re not close in the talent department to the 98 Padres, who won only 98 games.
Bochy played Castilla way too much in the first half, but even as bad as Vinny was, replacing him with Bellhorn wasn’t going to give us more than a couple of games. Bochy couldn’t acquire talent, that’s Towers’ job.
October 6, 2006 at 8:07 am
23, I don’t want to piss off Pujols - just walk him.
October 6, 2006 at 8:08 am
Personally, I think 88 wins with the team they have is pretty good.
October 6, 2006 at 8:24 am
Link to UT article that offers an explanation — not an excuse — for what happened in yesterday’s game. And, yes, it seems as if a few Pads thought the strike zone “expanded” a bit when they were batting. Nonetheless, you’ve got to hand it to the Cards’ game plan of doubling up, changing Weaver’s patterns and throwing curve after curve after curve. The Pads aggressiveness worked against them (the ‘98 team was very patient). I do like Bochy’s comments, and his reasoning regarding Pujols is very sound. He’s my manager of the year.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....livan.html
October 6, 2006 at 8:31 am
26: What’s he going to do to us if he’s pissed off? Get even more big hits? Get two bases in a rundown instead of one?
He’s already the best player in the postseason. I’d be willing to try anything to get him out of his current zone.
October 6, 2006 at 8:35 am
It’s funny. Thinking back, I think I would have rather kept EY than Bellhorn.
October 6, 2006 at 8:58 am
So basically, your saying we can’t hit the curveball, is that the problem. Well, expect nothing but curveballs all day Sat!!!
October 6, 2006 at 9:01 am
The Padres tendency to get shut down by junk throwers like Livan Hernandez would suggest they’re vulnerable to the curveball and the Cards recognized that. Most of the borderline calls seemed to be on breaking balls and the Padres never really adjusted to the pitching strategy. Reading the Cardinals blog IGD I saw a lot of remarks about how the Padres can’t hit curveballs.
I heard Dave Justice on 1090 the other day saying Pujols is too comfortable at the plate and I think Dave Stewart said the same thing. The guy just goes up there in his exaggerated stance and hacks away. Just like Barry Bonds, no one ever makes him move his feet. You don’t have to hit the guy but buzz a fastball up and in or down at his shins to make him a little uncomfortable. He looks like he’s hitting BP off a tee when he’s up there, no wonder he’s killing us.
Anyway, I just purchased game 5 tickets. I’m not giving up while there’s still baseball to be played. There’s still good seats left, buy now and avoid the bandwagon fans!
October 6, 2006 at 9:04 am
Oh I’m sorry, you all thought Mr. Jingles was safe– well not anymore.
http://xs107.xs.to/xs107/06390/go_pads.jpg
If I don’t see some Pads RISP driven home on Saturday, then Mr. Jingles won’t be going home either. I will be painting my basement walls with him, Jackson Pollock-style.
October 6, 2006 at 9:31 am
22- no way in hell this lineup wins 95 games, regardless of circumstances. They were fortunate to finish above .500.
I remarked to others in Section 116 yesterday that there was a slight mismatch between our #3 hitter (Walker) and theirs (Pujols).
We are as weak througfh the middle of the order as nearly any team in baseball.
October 6, 2006 at 9:31 am
This series is an unmitigated disaster, from the top down. Why do we have no backup outfielders on the bench? Why do we have 11 pitchers, including Park and Seanez? Why is Mark Bellhorn there at all. And for god’s sake, when is San Diego going to realize that Petco is killing this team and wither A) Change the park’s dimensions or B) Actually field a team that can take advantage of the park. Like, maybe a team that doesn’t hit everything in the air?
Sorry for the ranting; I have never been this frustrated with a Padres team in my life - last year they weren’t expected to do anything and they didn’t. This year, on paper they are clearly the better team and are about to get swept for the second year in a row. I am disheartened, to say the very least.
October 6, 2006 at 9:33 am
30
I agree. You know what? I would have rather the Pads not signed Bellhorn at all! It was questionable decision at best, considering how awful he looked last year.
Oh, well. Here we are. Best case scenario is that CY pitches a complete game, and Boch does not have any opportunity to put him in.
October 6, 2006 at 9:34 am
Another thing about strike zones…. someone please tell the umps that one size does NOT fit all. In both games 1 and 2, I thought Branyan was victimized by low strike calls, pitches that arguably might be strikes if Dave Roberts were at the plate, but not when the guy standing in is half a foot taller.
October 6, 2006 at 9:37 am
The K zone did appear to have a decided bias towards the Cards and against us. Bard’s voicing his opinion during TWO at bats backs this up pretty strongly since generally a catcher will bite his tongue. Nonetheless, we just couldn’t catch a break and I don’t think it was the uneven strike zone on a handful of pitches which was the cause. It just seems when we hit it hard, it’s right at someone, and when they hit a bloop or a broken bat, it falls for a base hit. Very strange.
Also, Kristina Kahrl (sp?) doesn’t think much of our roster construction either: http://www.baseballprospectus......bf99d8ec56
Here’s to breaking the streak on Saturday. Go CY! Go Padres!
October 6, 2006 at 9:39 am
The big question right now is: Is it better to be in the playoffs and humiliated like we have been, or not in the playoffs and focusing on the Chargers?
I guess that answer will come Sat. BTW, is that a 9 am start PST?
October 6, 2006 at 9:46 am
I believe it’s 10am.
I really hope the Pads win. It’ll make dealing with the inevitable Martyball frustration a little easier.
October 6, 2006 at 10:21 am
Good CHEERS reference, Clayton.
I missed Coach.
Yes, a brushback to Pujols is overdue. The guy is just standing to comfortably there. I really thought that Wells was going to at least do that yesterday.
As for the Padres being a 95 win team, no way. I was wrong but I thought the team wouldn’t have won 82 games out of Spring Training.
Looking at the lineups between the two teams, overall the Padres is more balance but the Cards have some scrappy and scary hitters.
The problem is the Padres is balanced in the way that no scary hitters exist in the lineup.
Let’s see the defense next game. No need for Walker to be in the starting lineup again over Barfield. That failed rundown play was disgusting.
Go Chris Young. Go Padres!
October 6, 2006 at 10:34 am
If we get swept again, that is just unacceptable. Lets at least win one and see what happens.
I mean, the way it works seems to be if we make the playoffs we either make the Series or get swept by the Cards. If one of those two things is gonna happen, lets make the right decision!!!
October 6, 2006 at 10:46 am
RE: 41 I really focused on the lack of hitting when I posted San Diego Spotlight, but our defense has not been at its best in a few instances in the postseason.
I counted three balls yesterday that Barfield at least gets a glove on…not counting the botched exchange. On Tuesday there was a ball up the middle that Blum never broke on until it was by the pitcher. Greene’s usually very good on that play. And I thought the ball that went over Dave Roberts head was one he usually catches…
October 6, 2006 at 10:46 am
If the padres would have taken care of buisness after the all star break and eliminated more teams from the NL west race earlier then I think they could have gotten 7 more wins. This was a good team in a poor division, they are not as good as the 98 team but i did not think they were not that far off.
The pads had the best team ERA in the NL and 2nd in all of MLB, The pads lineup was not bad as well they just could not get runer’s in scoring position in which to me falls on the manager.
Boch refuses to play small ball and move runners over and relies on the 3 run shot in a park where its not going to happen. Thats why boch relies on the lefty right matchup so much.
October 6, 2006 at 10:55 am
Re 43: I heard Doc on XX this morning talking about Wilson’s line drive. He said when it got hit, he though it was coming right at him. When he started to go back the ball kept carrying over his head. He said it’s the toughest play for an outfielder to make. I’m with you, though, as soon as I saw it, I thought he should have had it.
October 6, 2006 at 10:57 am
Re # of wins this season. Towers put the win total at 87 at the start of the season. He hoped to improve 5 games from last year. He said he found his prediction in his desk and opened it up two games before the end of the regular season.
October 6, 2006 at 11:01 am
I agree with Dave that it is the hardest read for an outfielder…I just think he usually catches it. Not criticizing his defense overall.
Anybody have Walker’s number vs. Weaver? When I saw him out there I figured it was because Bochy expected to score runs with this lineup…
October 6, 2006 at 11:12 am
47: Lefties kill Weaver, I’m not going to second-guess Walker being in there. It looks worse now because we didn’t score at all, but I’m not sure Barfield gets the out on Edmonds IF single to stop Pujols from scoring. Even executing the rundown we might have lost 1-0. We might have taken more risks on the bases down by only 1, but we didn’t have many chances.
44: 7 wins is a huge swing. Massive. You’re assuming that every time Bochy tried to play small ball, it would work. Which it doesn’t.
Look at the second half schedule. We got rocked in a lot of our losses. 11 one-run losses, 11 one-run wins. You’re not going to win every close game no matter what tactics you use.
October 6, 2006 at 11:14 am
47
Walker was
.381 BA, 1.076 OPS in 21 career ABs against Weaver.
Unfortunately, if he doesn’t get hits, he’s a real liability in the field. I think Barfield makes those plays yesterday.
October 6, 2006 at 11:25 am
This is from ESPN.com’ scouting reports on the Padres:
Padres Game 2 lineup BA vs. the curveball:
Dave Roberts - .250 (.262 vs RHP)
Brian Giles - .231 (.225 vs RHP)
Todd Walker - .244 (.276 vs RHP)
Adrian Gonzalez - .247 (.189 vs RHP)
Josh Bard - .167 (NA vs RHP)
Mike Cameron - .235 (.235 vs RHP)
Russell Branyan - .205 (.171 vs RHP)
Geoff Blum - .429 (.429 vs RHP)
Dave Duncan appears to have been really onto something with the curveball strategy. Gotta tip your cap to him. Also, expect to see a heavy dose of curves from Jeff Suppan on Saturday, and he normally throws it only about 14% of the time.
Before yesterday’s game, Weaver threw his curve 16% of the time. I am pretty sure his CB ratio was much higher yesterday.
October 6, 2006 at 11:28 am
Yeah, I think Bochy was on the same page as everyone else on the team, on this board and in San Diego in thinking we should max out our advantages against Weaver….I mean, so what if a GB or 2 get by Walker that Barfield would have gotten to, we’re going to score 5 or more runs right?
I have no problem with the initial strategy…I just think it was pretty obvious by the 4th inning that Weaver had good stuff and was getting a wide zone. Should have put Barfield and KG in the game at that point, close up the holes in the D and hope you scratch one across. Still, in that situation we probably lose 1-0 instead of 2-0.
October 6, 2006 at 11:29 am
I wonder if Boch will play Khalil now that CYoung is pitching and IF defense essentially doesn’t matter.
Oh, and I wanted to point out again how classic that play at the plate was by Bard. He just deke’d the guy in the greatest of fashions. I watched it over and over last night. Really classic.
October 6, 2006 at 11:30 am
#47: Keith Law on ESPN Insider believes Dave should have caught the ball, as well. He said:
“Preston Wilson hit a line drive to Dave Roberts that should have been caught. But Roberts didn’t break back right away and was slow to turn on the jets, allowing Wilson to end up on second base. Albert Pujols then hit a routine single to left. Roberts threw home, Wells cut off the throw but bobbled it, and suddenly Pujols was hung up between first and second. During the ensuing rundown, shortstop Geoff Blum forgot to cover second base, and Pujols ended up on second. The extra base mattered, since Pujols scored on a two-out, infield single by Jim Edmonds that wouldn’t have scored Pujols from second. If neither miscue happens, these teams might still be playing.”
http://insider.espn.go.com/esp.....=law_keith
October 6, 2006 at 11:31 am
I think the Charger Steeler game is the Sunday night game, so Sunday could be one of those real downer sports days or a really up sports day depending. Imagine them playing that game with the ball field still laid out because the pads are still in it. Everytime I see the Raiders play, there is the baseball field still there. And the As might make it a long way. Sunday could really be great if we tie the series and beat the Steelers. It could happen.
October 6, 2006 at 11:42 am
54
I don’t know if I can take it should the bad things happen in those two circumstances on sunday, I really don’t.
October 6, 2006 at 11:47 am
Someone posted a question the other day on whether anyone knows about a good blog (Nothing that could possibly match “DS,” but what can?) for the Chargers. I don’t recall any responses. Anyone know of any?
October 6, 2006 at 11:55 am
Couple days late, but here’s a FANTASTIC column by Thomas Boswell about the Dodger’s baserunning gaffe in Game 1. When you’re feeling low, it’s always good to read stuff making fun of the Dodgers.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/.....02109.html
October 6, 2006 at 12:04 pm
#56: I’m not a huge football fan, but I’d highly recommend Chargers Confidential, written by our pal Rich Campbell. I’ve actually been meaning to pimp his site for a while; it’s well worth the visit.
October 6, 2006 at 12:05 pm
22 & 41
I don’t think you want to brush back Pujols. Twice this season he has been knocked down with a pitch at his head, got right back where he was in the box (but this time with Albert Pujols face….you’ll know what I’m talking about if you brush him back), and absolutely pounded the ball over the fence.
October 6, 2006 at 12:10 pm
According to mlb.com, Khalil may start tomorrow…
THE NEWS
Padres shortstop Khalil Greene, who has been recovering from a torn ligament in his left middle finger, could play on Saturday in game three of the NLDS against the Cardinals. “He swung the bat much better,” manager Bruce Bochy told the North County Times. “Geoff Blum has done a great job at shortstop. He swung the bat very well in September. But I was very encouraged by the way Khalil swung. There is a chance he’ll start.”
OUR VIEW
The Padres need to pull out all the stops on Saturday, so it would be surprising if Greene didn’t give it a go. In the end, it may have little impact on the Pads ability to avoid getting swept.
October 6, 2006 at 12:22 pm
I thought is was offense we needed, the D seems to be fine. Khalil hasn’t batted in a month. If Bellhorn gets a start I swear I will scream.
October 6, 2006 at 12:28 pm
I doubt we will ever see Bellhorn at SS in a Padre uni.
October 6, 2006 at 12:56 pm
Not a great week for San Diego sports. The loss to the Ravens on Sunday and two Padres playoff losses. And there is one more game left this week.
Now, if they could just win tomorrow, extending the series into next week…
October 6, 2006 at 3:10 pm
62: I also doubt that we’ll ever see Bellhorn @ SS in a Padres uni, but my fear that we’ll see Bellhorn in Padres uni AT ALL…
October 6, 2006 at 3:27 pm
Man, Twins trying but got no momentum against the As. I hope that doesn’t happen for the Padres. We need to strike first on Sat then keep the Mo with good pitching. Twins are clearly gripping too hard. Too bad. I guess I’ll root for the As as my Amer league team. Think about it, still bitter about 84 and 98, so its the As. They just showed Ricky signing autographs. Cool.
October 6, 2006 at 3:42 pm
re: Twins/A’s … with 2-down and no one on, Twins issue IW to Frank Thomas … which is what folks here want Bochy to do with Pujols (and I concur) … BUT then the Twins pitchers issue another walk, then an error, then another walk and Thomas scores … yikes! When things ain’t goin’ right, “strategy” don’t seem to matter!
October 6, 2006 at 3:43 pm
re: 66 … then a double to clear the bases and the series is essentially over …
October 6, 2006 at 3:55 pm
Darren Smith on 1090 said Khalil took BP today and it’s basically Khalil’s decision. If he thinks he can play he’ll be in the lineup. Also, Piazza will start and maybe Walker at third, which I don’t get but whatever. A shakeup is definitely in order.
October 6, 2006 at 4:30 pm
Good news: According to Baseball Prospectus’ postseason series odds, the Padres have a better chance to advance to the next round than the Dodgers.
Bad news: that chance is still only 12.3%.
http://www.baseballprospectus......onodds.php
October 6, 2006 at 5:20 pm
http://www.10news.com/video/10017921/index.html
alright, who knows how I can save this? “Fan Reaction”, the Woody Williams/Chad Tracy look alike…
October 6, 2006 at 5:31 pm
too bad I wasn’t wearing a Ducksnorts or Gaslamp Ball tee… and that I came out with “psychologically into their heads”… D’oh! I sound like Nuke LaLoosh…
October 6, 2006 at 5:31 pm
There is a good reason to put Walker at 3rd on Saturday, actually two. First, Chris Young is an extreme flyball pitcher, so that minimizes any defensive liabilities risked by putting Walker at third. Second, Walker is a much better hitter than Blum.
A couple other decent reasons are that Blum is better off the bench - one of the best PH in the NL this year, and it will get fans off the back of Bochy for not having Barfield in there, even though Walker was a better pregame choice vs. Weaver.
October 6, 2006 at 5:51 pm
Sounds like a lot people missed the point about Bochy’s and Roberts’ statements about dubling up and throwng curves for strikes. It isn’t necessarily that the Pads are especially susceptible to curves; it is that their strategy against Weaver was to be aggressive because his career pitching pattern was to go curve, then fastball. Yesterday he went curve, then curve again, and then curve again — something he had rarely, if ever, done in his career.
And why did it work?
Two reasons: The Pads continued to stay aggressive — only a couple of walks — and were off balance because they were guessing wrong, and more importantly, Weaver was able to keep his curve down and throw it for strikes. If Weaver stays in to pitch the sixth, maybe the Pads adjust, but for a 5-inning pitcher, the strategy worked great. When a pitcher totally changes his pattern and is able to throw the ball for strikes, not much hitters can do. That’s why Woody is so successful when his curve is hitting spots despite his mediocre stuff.
Most hitters will tell you that if a pitcher can spot his curve, batters are going to be in for a long day. Sure, Suppan can try the the same strategy, but if he hangs a curve it’s an extra-base hit, or if he can’t throw his curve for strikes, batters will sit fastball and have a field day against him.
October 6, 2006 at 6:12 pm
Great points Big. A steady diet of curves is flirting with disaster because a hanging curve is the easiest pitch to hit hard. Good point about Weaver leaving early too. I was sure LaRussa was going to leave him in too long but 5 innings must have been the limit in their game plan. The whole episode is a great example of how a manager can influence a game beyond the standard moves everyone thinks of.
Rich, there’s an extension for the Firefox browser that will probably allow you to save that video:
https://addons.mozilla.org/firefox/2390/
OT, here’s a great article from SI about a 1986 meeting between Ted Williams, Wade Boggs and Don Mattingly:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
Some interesting discussion in there about patience at the plate, hitting mechanics, pitchers, and the famous burning bat story. Too bad Tony Gwynn wasn’t there.
October 6, 2006 at 6:26 pm
70: Rich, if the Firefox extension doesn’t work, I snagged the .wmv file–just let me know if you need it.
October 7, 2006 at 6:24 am
Doesn’t matter to me if Mae Young plays 3B, as long as we get some hits.
October 7, 2006 at 7:46 am
Re 73: The espn.com scouting reports do show that the Padres lineup is susceptible to curves, and surprisingly it is the lefthanded hitters who are pretty vulnerable. The lefties try to pull everything and the only good curve to pull for an extra base hit is a high one; otherwise one has to stay back and drive it up the middle or down the LF line.
I am pretty sure the Padres got 3 walks against Weaver in 5 innings - that is a pretty good walk rate. The problem was that they only got 1 hit - totally unacceptable.
The Padres cannot allow Suppan to start them off with fat get me over first pitch curves, and then face another curve on 0-1 or 0-2 or 1-2. We’ll see whether Suppan follows Weaver’s strategy (he should because he has awful general numbers against the current Padres) AND whether the Padres can adjust.