NLDS: Padres - Cardinals Series Preview, Pitchers
Mon, Oct 2, 2006
by Geoff Young
For just the second time in club history (1984 World Series being the first), the San Diego Padres have home field advantage in a post-season series. In a rematch of the 2005 National League Division Series matchup, the Pads take on the St. Louis Cardinals.
This year’s version of the Padres would appear better equipped to take on the Cards than last year’s vintage. But even though the Pads finished the season winning 20 of their final 29 games while the Cardinals dropped 10 of their final 14, the club from St. Louis has significant playoff experience and shouldn’t be taken lightly. Fortunately, there are few more aware of that fact than the Padres, who were swept by the Cardinals just a year ago.
Rotation
Padres starters paced the National League with a stingy 4.10 ERA. The Cardinals finished at 4.79, good for 12th place in the league and worst among NL playoff teams. Among other teams, the Reds, Giants, Rockies, and Brewers all saw their starting pitchers post lower ERAs in 2006.
Padres
Chris Young led the charge for San Diego, finishing with an 11-6 record and a 3.46 ERA over 179 1/3 innings pitched. Young ranked sixth in the NL in ERA, seventh in K/9 (8.23), and first in batting average against (.206). He also was the least efficient pitcher in MLB, averaging 4.13 pitches per plate appearance. Young had severe home/road splits this season, so look for him to make a start at Busch Stadium. Young’s ERA on the road this year was 2.41 over 93 1/3 innings. He hasn’t lost away from home since August 12, 2005, when he dropped a 6-5 decision at Yankee Stadium while still a member of the Texas Rangers.
Clay Hensley, originally slated as one of the Pads’ setup men, stepped into the rotation when injuries hit and never left. In his first full big-league season, Hensley went 11-12 with a 3.71 ERA (10th in the NL) and was one of the Padres’ more pleasant surprises of 2006. Hensley is a ground ball specialist who, despite his success in the rotation this year, likely will be working out of the bullpen in deference to more seasoned veterans. Hensley does a great job of keeping the ball in the park, but because his pitches move so much, sometimes struggles with command.
Jake Peavy had an off-year by his standards, which is to say that most pitchers would kill for his numbers. He finished 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA over 202 1/3 innings and missed his second straight strikeout title (and his 2005 total) by one. Peavy had more trouble putting hitters away this season when he got ahead of them than he had over the past couple years, but came on very strong down the stretch, going 6-4 with a 2.64 ERA over 78 1/3 innings in his final 12 starts. He may not be quite the pitcher he was in 2004 or 2005, but when Peavy’s on, he’s still as tough as they come. And after last year’s playoff embarrassment, it’s a good bet that he’ll be prepared this time.
Woody Williams, given up for dead following a poor 2005 showing, came back strong and went 12-5 with a 3.65 ERA over 145 1/3 innings. His 4.46 K/9 won’t inspire a lot of fear, but he battles. One thing to note about Williams is that, although his ERA dropped by more than a full run in 2006, his peripherals weren’t all that different from those posted the previous season. His K/9 was well down, but his K/BB was virtually unchanged (2.06 this year vs 2.08 last), as were his BA/OBP/SLG numbers (.275/.330/.464 in 2005 vs .279/.328/.455 in 2006). It appears that Williams may have found the smoke and mirrors that were missing a season ago.
David Wells rounds out (pun intended) the rotation. Coming over from Boston just before the trade deadline, Wells made five starts for the Padres. He looked good in the first one and the last one, not so much in the others. The biggest things working in his favor are playoff experience and whatever other intangibles he might bring to the club — not only when he’s on the mound but also just in his presence. What those might entail, I haven’t a clue.
Cardinals
The St. Louis rotation begins and ends with Cy Young hopeful Chris Carpenter. His 3.09 ERA ranked second in the NL, while his 184 strikeouts were good enough for a sixth-place tie. Carpenter won the award in 2005, so this is no fluke. He’s a tough customer who promises to give the Padres fits, his last start against them (7 IP, 12 H, 6 R on 9/26 @ StL) notwithstanding.
If you want an example of why won-loss record is a poor indicator of a pitcher’s performance, take a look at Jeff Suppan’s 12-7 showing in 2006. His ERA of 4.12 was higher than Jake Peavy’s, and his K/9 of 4.93 is about half that of the Padres’ ace. Comparisons to Peavy are unfair, of course. We’re just making a point about silly statistics. Suppan is a smart pitcher who compares well to Woody Williams. He won’t lead you to the promised land, but he could lend a hand when you need it. He’ll keep the Cardinals in ballgames.
The rest of the rotation is a bit of a mess, and the Cardinals probably are wishing for more off days in the series. Mark Mulder is out due to shoulder surgery, which leaves some combination of Anthony Reyes (5-8, 5.06 ERA in 85.1 IP), Jeff Weaver (5-4, 5.18 ERA in 83.1 IP with the Cardinals, 8-14, 5.76 ERA in 172 IP overall), and Jason Marquis (14-16, 6.02 ERA). Anything is possible, but none of these guys would inspire much confidence in me if I were a St. Louis fan.
Bullpen
The Padres finished with the second best bullpen ERA in the National League. Only the New York Mets (3.25) had a lower ERA than the Pads’ 3.42. The Cardinals, meantime, were middle of the pack with a 4.06 ERA. The two teams finished 10th and 11th in the league in relief innings pitched, so neither was overly dependent on its bullpen.
Padres
The Padres relied heavily on its Big Three of Cla Meredith (1.07 ERA in 50.2 IP), Scott Linebrink (3.57 ERA in 75.2 IP), and Trevor Hoffman (2.14 ERA in 63 IP), with a dash of Alan Embree (3.27 ERA in 52.1 IP) thrown in for lefty goodness (hello, Chris Duncan and Jim Edmonds). Meredith came over in the deal that sent Doug Mirabelli back to Boston and, until a recent stretch where he was worked extremely hard, effectively slammed the door in the seventh inning for much of the season. Linebrink, who had been among the toughest relievers in the big leagues the past 2+ years, struggled in 2006, seeing his ERA finish well above career norms (3.00 entering the season). Hoffman works the ninth, and exclusively the ninth. The last time he pitched more than a single inning was when he surrendered 4 runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Phillies en route to a 5-2 loss at Petco Park on August 13, 2005. Embree bounced back from injuries and was able to appear in a career-high 73 games.
Others potentially in the mix include Jon Adkins (3.98 ERA in 54.1 IP), Scott Cassidy (2.53 ERA in 42.2 IP), Brian Sweeney (3.20 ERA in 56.1 IP), and whichever of Clay Hensley or Woody Williams doesn’t make the rotation. Adkins was solid, if unspectacular, for much of the season. Cassidy was brilliant in April but suffered from acute gopheritis and spent most of the summer at Triple-A Portland, before returning to make five low-leverage appearances in September. Sweeney pitched well when called upon, which wasn’t often. At times it was easy to forget he was even on the big-league roster, and I think sometimes Bruce Bochy did. As for the long-man role, Hensley and Williams both started the season in the bullpen. Hensley finished his first full season #10 in the NL in ERA (3.71) but Williams has the experience. Also, Hensley was dominant as a reliever down the stretch in 2005, so the guess here is that he’ll end up in that role again this post-season. What will be interesting to see is whether Bochy is willing to use anyone other than Embree, Meredith, Linebrink, or Hoffman in key situations. He’s been overly dependent on those four down the stretch, and if he still doesn’t want to give others a meaningful role, he’ll need his starters to work at least six innings every time they toe the slab.
Cardinals
On the Cardinals side, closer Jason Isringhausen is out for the season with a hip injury, which has thrust youngster Adam Wainwright into the role. Wainwright was the Cards’ most effective reliever in 2005, posting a 3.12 ERA over 75 innings. Sinkerballer Braden Looper (3.56 ERA in 73.1 IP) is the Cardinals’ primary setup man, with Josh Hancock (4.09 ERA in 77 IP) and Brad Thompson (3.34 ERA in 56.2 IP) also making significant contributions. Tony LaRussa, master of the matchups, also has two southpaws at his disposal, which could prove troublesome for the Padres, whose lineup and bench is heavily stacked toward the left side. The potentially good news is that neither Tyler Johnson (4.95 ERA in 36.1 IP) nor Randy Flores (5.62 ERA in 41.2 IP) was particularly effective in 2006. LaRussa appears to employ a more diversified approach in managing his bullpen than does Bochy. I am not sure whether that’s an advantage or a disadvantage in a short series. I suppose it depends on how well the starting pitchers do. If they consistently work deep into games, then having a few studs in the ‘pen could be enough, but if they’re knocked around a bit, it’s nice to have reliable reinforcements ready at the call. The Cardinals appear to have the advantage in the depth department, with the Padres being stronger at the top.
Out of time. I’ll get the position players tonight.
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October 2, 2006 at 9:04 am
Geoff - great writeup. I’d like to post a question I posted on your “tweener” discussion: Should Chris Young start game 1? I LOVE JAKE PEAVY. It’s just with CY’s brilliant stretch run and Jake’s adrenaline seemingly being his cryptonite, I’d really like to see us get a lead in the series and then bring Jake in for game 2. Thoughts?
October 2, 2006 at 9:07 am
I still would rather see Hensley in the rotation with Woody in the pen, but I guess it’s not to be.
Sounds like it’s shaping up to be:
Tuesday - Peavy vs. Carpenter
Thursday - Wells vs. ?
Saturday - Young vs. ?
I can’t imagine Sunday wouldn’t be Peavy again if it goes that far, but maybe they hold him for Monday, with Woody pitching instead?
October 2, 2006 at 9:26 am
I started to rebut Masticore’s comment, to state that Young would start game 2 b/c he’s so good on the road.
This whole “home field” thing is so new to Padre fans! My brain was already pre-programmed to think “ok, games 1 and 2 are road games…”
October 2, 2006 at 9:58 am
Is it me or is ESPN completely messed up for Sunday night highlights. No baseball or football while the NBC game is on I guess. What happened to the fastest two minutes in football. Where is Chris Berman these days. Time for a Sports Network that covers the West coast teams.
October 2, 2006 at 10:17 am
The deal the NFL cut w/ NBC and ESPN mandated no “NFL Primetime” show on ESPN on sunday nights. So now they have the completely lame “NFL Blitz” subsegment within sportscenter.
The “Football Night in America” show on NBC is supposedly the replacement for NFL Primetime in that 7-8ET slot, but in my opinion it’s not up to snuff. Highlight packages are too short, there are WAY too many cooks in the kitchen, etc.
October 2, 2006 at 10:51 am
Man that first sack of the season for Rivers was a rough one. I hate Marty’s play call in the second half…Ok, I’m done.
GO PADRES!!! I really wish I lived in San Diego right now. Let’s go Padres-A’s WS!!
October 2, 2006 at 10:53 am
Having the home field advantage is strange to me too.
Also, I think this is the first time I’ve ever seen this in my 23 years as a Padres fan. People are calling us the favorite to win our series. On the ESPN matchup thingie all five writers pick us to win.
Not that I don’t agree, but it’s strange to hear “the experts” think that.
October 2, 2006 at 11:05 am
Great work writing this up, Geoff.
There is no way David Wells should start game 2. The guy has been our fifth most effective pitcher this year. Surely you’d want to start Chris Young game 2, road v. home splits be damned, because then he would be available to pitch a possible game 5 on three days rest. Since there seems to be no logical explanation for the crazy splits, I would chalk it up to small sample size.
October 2, 2006 at 11:08 am
Quick question…in the ESPN review of the series, they call the Padres the 3rd best team in the NL…
Who are they talking about? The Mets being #1? Okay…I can buy that.
Who is #2? The Dodgers? Ahhh no, they are the WC team BEHIND the Padres. Not to mention we went 13-5 against them this year and had a better record than they did in September.
The Cardinals? Ahh no, they are barely a .500 team.
The Phills? The Astros? Not even in the discussion…they are golfing today.
Does ESPN proof read their stuff?
October 2, 2006 at 11:08 am
Also, have they set the postseason roster? Anyone know where I can see it?
October 2, 2006 at 11:14 am
One thing that may have been mentioned in IGD yesterday, but since I did not read it…
Dude…Is AGon a frigg’n man or what? His huge September at the plate is great, but his glove even better. We need to give him props for that unbelievable play yesterday. To have the presence of mind to throw to 2nd behind the runner, ending the game and wrapping up the West for the Pads CANNOT go unnoticed.
I noticed. I am so impressed. How many major league players make that throw? I can’t think of many…JT Snow? Maybe. Jeter? Maybe. How many other players think like that? Seriously.
While Gilly’s catch earlier in the game was the Catch of the Year…AGon’s heads up play was, without a doubt, the PLAY OF THE YEAR.
October 2, 2006 at 11:38 am
Gonzalez is definitely in the upper echelon of defensive 1B. I haven’t gotten to see too many games this year, being on the east coast, but every time I have seen them he makes a good play. Sometimes 4 or 5.
I wonder if he has a chance at a gold glove? Probably not, considering nobody knows the Padres, but he deserves consideration IMHO.
October 2, 2006 at 11:47 am
CM, that was exactly what Geoff said after the game yesterday.
AGon’s last play was JT Snow-like. Great baseball instinct to get the lead runner on a force play.
Also, Khalil looked good fielding in the last two games. He may still be rusty with the bat, however. Still, having him able to field would probably free a spot on the post-season roster for the Padres to leave Bellhorn and Alexander off it.
October 2, 2006 at 11:48 am
I’m pretty sure that I saw that Young was already scheduled for Game 2, but maybe they will change it because of his road success.
Do you have to talk about f’n football here? I’m trying to get away from it.
October 2, 2006 at 11:50 am
Speaking of Gonzalez, according to si.com’s preview of the series, “Gonzalez is learning at first base…” Um, hello. I hope the baseball writers have more sense than that and give Adrian gold glove consideration. Other than that the preview is pretty fair, giving the Pads the edge in pitching and defense and Pujols the edge in hitting. He predicts Padres in 4.
October 2, 2006 at 11:53 am
That play by Gonzalez to end the game was unbelievable. He’d noticed the baserunner stumble on his way to second and immediately recognized that Barfield’s throw was wide of the mark. Never made an attempt to record the out at first but instead moved toward the ball, transferring and throwing in one fluid motion. Seriously, it’s not the kind of play you expect a first baseman even to consider making, let alone execute with precision. Simply brilliant.
October 2, 2006 at 11:53 am
re: Coaches and managers vote on Gold Glove award. That’s the one thing they vote on, and they usally screw it up.
October 2, 2006 at 11:57 am
re: 11
Mike, I don’t know if you’re talking about Keith Law on ESPN.com or not, but he says the Dodgers are the second-best team in the league.
But his preview of the Padres-Cardinals series is pretty good.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2609993
I actually think with the Padres rotation (although Hensley should be the No. 3 starter) that they should be the favorites, even over the Mets. And I think that’s an objective opinion.
October 2, 2006 at 12:03 pm
Here’s the scouting report Law prepared just on the Padres:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb.....id=2608708
This part is too good:
“The Padres’ biggest weakness, by far, is their manager, Bruce Bochy. Highly regarded in and out of the game and winner of the NL Manager of the Year award in 1996, Bochy is about as bad an in-game manager as you’ll find on a playoff team.”
But this part is just plain wrong. I don’t get it:
“Their other major weakness is their defense, where other than center fielder Cameron and first baseman Gonzalez, the Padres field below-average glovemen at just about every position.”
October 2, 2006 at 12:07 pm
Yeah I thought it was interesting that a team where both Roberts and Barfield(despite his reputation) have been near the top in defensive value all season.
Giles is also above average.
October 2, 2006 at 12:19 pm
Catcher and third base are the only spots that have NOT been above average.
October 2, 2006 at 12:28 pm
I noticed that Peavy was on the Padres website as the starting pitcher for game one but is no longer there, it is blank now. Hmmm!
October 2, 2006 at 12:36 pm
On other subject: The Kansas City Royals showed more pride in sweeping the then-AL-Central leading Tigers than the stupid roll-over Giants. OK, end rant!
GO Padres! Let the world underestimate the Padres’ pitching, hitting, defense. They’ll learn the hard way and it’ll be too late for then the Padres will have won the games.
October 2, 2006 at 12:39 pm
I wouldn’t be surprised if Bochy’s dancing around who is starting the first game to try and offset La Russa’s setting a line up against Peavy. I think Bochy did the same thing last year.
Doesn’t really matter, though. Jake, if he can keep his emotions under control, can run through any line up. I’d put my money on Jake being the starting pitcher, Wells no. 2 and CY no. 3. Boch ought to just name Peavy be done with it, kind of an “in your face” to La Russa.
October 2, 2006 at 12:51 pm
re: 23
Maybe the Giants did try and fail to play well against the Dodgers. They were a losing team, after all. Why is up to the Giants to win the division for the Padres?
October 2, 2006 at 1:01 pm
25: A number of instances in that series show that the Giants just mailed it in. It was a disgrace.
October 2, 2006 at 1:04 pm
25.
Did you watch any of the Giants/Dogers games over the weekend or see any of the highlights? It’s not up to the Giants to win the division for the Padres it just seriously looked like the sorry bastards handed the Dogs a sweep!
October 2, 2006 at 1:10 pm
8: Actually, Wells has been our second most effective starter this year (after Stauffer). Among those with more than one start, Wells has been the most effective followed by Young, Peavy and then Hensley.
[claims based upon wOBA allowed]
October 2, 2006 at 1:12 pm
at the risk of getting flamed, I would say the dodgers and Padres are damned close, too close really to say which is better. Luckily the Padres dominated the season h2h. But more then half of those games came before the trading deadline. The Dodgers got much better after that and basically equaled the Padres I think. That last series was indicative of the matchup, a tough split. I only say this because it may very well be the dawgs and Pads in the NLCS and that would be a tight series and the h2h record in not indicative to how the dodgers are currently playing. I hate the Dodgers, but as they say, know your firends but know your enemies better.
October 2, 2006 at 1:18 pm
I’m sure someone else noticed this
Dave Roberts playoff MLBlog
http://daveroberts.mlblogs.com/
October 2, 2006 at 1:29 pm
Why aren’t the Card’s being lambasted as the worst team in the playoffs? They have only 1 more win than the Padres last year and we all know they are the “worst team in the history man to be in the playoffs” TIC.
October 2, 2006 at 1:31 pm
Hi everybody. Cardinals fan, checking in to try and see what the Birds are up against.
If I might offer some info on the Cards pitchers, I’d say Suppan is Game 2 starter, and Weaver (shudder) Game 3. LaRussa will definitely send his two best starters out to try and get ahead in the series before he has to fall back on the - what’s a good word, “scrubs” would be unkind - second-tier starters.
If it were up to me, I’d give Anthony Reyes Game 3, because on full rest he can be pretty good. His numbers got hurt by that start yesterday when Tony sent him out on 3 days rest (if he’s going to do that, he ought to have used Marquis so we could boo him one last time). Unlike every other starter - except Carp - he can actually strike someone out when he needs to. He wouldn’t be likely to go more than six innings, but he’d be a solid bet to only give up 1 or 2 ER. But Tony isn’t big on the rookies, especially after Ankiel, so Reyes is fighting an uphill battle.
With Weaver, he has two likely outcomes: 7IP, 2 or 3ER, or 3IP, 5 or 6ER. On the plus side (for me), he seems to be doing more of the former lately than the later, but you’re right, my confidence in him isn’t very high. He doesn’t strike anybody out, which is odd, because I’m sure he used to be able to do that, but Tony and Dunc seem to devalue the K.
I wouldn’t expect to see Marquis. I believe Tony and Dave Duncan are as fed up with him as the fansare . He just looks like he doesn’t care out there. “Oops, I gave up 6 runs in two innings (his numbers on Thursday). Oh well, it’s not life my team’s playoff hopes were hurt by that lousy performance”. So your hitters should miss out on that gravy train. Sorry.
As to the bullpen, I’d expect Wainwright to get closer duties. Tony tried Looper and he soiled himself against Houston, so hopefully Tony’s realized Braden is one of those guys who’s better left in the 8th inning. Johnson appears to have supplanted Flores as the better LOOGY, which as you noted isn’t saying much, but they can both be effective sometimes.
One last thing: I know his peripherals don’t really back it up, but I’m glad to hear that Woody Williams had a pretty good season for you. He was a favorite of mine during his time in St. Louis.
October 2, 2006 at 1:34 pm
I don’t really think the Card’s are as weak a team as the Pad’s were last year, but for cryin out loud, nothing is even mentioned about anywhere.
October 2, 2006 at 1:45 pm
Think about it in these terms
-Cards are only one game better than the Padres record last year (or 1.5 cause they only played 161)
-the Padre offense consisted of very few above average hitters most of last year (Brian Giles).. and this cards lineup is featuring guys coming off injuries (Edmonds and Eckstein)
-Cards have an extremely top heavy rotation this year (Carpenter) like the Padres had sending Peavy out there last year.
- I think Jake will do well this year, but I think he will fear coming after hitters early just because how he got pounded last year. I think he can
Also remember, Reggie Sanders is sitting at home somewhere, so they’re without his NLDS defying logic numbers.
This is just like the regular season, guys are gonna take care of business and with the two home games in the day they will most likely be more offense-oriented unless our Marine layer experts beg to differ.
October 2, 2006 at 1:48 pm
I’m also in the group that thinks Chris Young should go game 3 no matter what and Wells go game 2.
Chris Young
on road: 6-0 2.41
at home: 5-5 4.60
and Wells has been wells at home and on the road having a 3+ era and turning in good starts
October 2, 2006 at 2:05 pm
Also consider the Padres have done nothing easy this year, si predict the need for a third home game, at which point it comes down to Khalil making and outstanding DB after Trevor goves up two dingers, to get the Padres into the NLCS. IOWs, a nail biter series.
October 2, 2006 at 2:07 pm
Hi Kevin, I’d just like for the Dodgers to end up not with the same record as the Padres.
Hello CalvinPitt. Thank for the information.
Let’s hope this series is not the laugher it was last season.
Any lineup with Pujols is dangerous. Don’t forget Duncan is pretty good and Rolen and Edmonds will be ready. Also Taguchi is no easy out. I’m glad Eckstein is not going up against the Padres. Like the guy, but pesky as heck.
Jake will be ready and so is the rest of the team.
October 2, 2006 at 2:22 pm
Nice write up. Your comment about “smoke and mirrors” on Woody got me to thinking. I ran some numbers on starting pitching to predict ERA. WHIP and SLG are the most important (not sure if these are really “peripherals” or not), but in 2005, Woody’s predicted ERA was 4.87, almost identical to his actual ERA of 4.85). This year he did drop his WHIP and SLG, dropping his expected ERA to 4.29, explaining roughly half the drop in ERA. The rest is smoke and mirrors, aka luck.
For what it is worth, here are the Padres starters (needed > 50 IP as a starter), with expected vs. actual ERA
Name ExpERA ActERA Variance
Young 3.32 3.46 0.14
Hensley 3.86 3.71 -0.15
Peavy 3.88 4.09 0.21
Williams 4.29 3.65 -0.64
Park 4.73 4.81 0.08
Thompson 4.81 4.99 0.18
So Hensley looks like our second best starter, cut this way. I would keep Woody on a short leash. Perhaps some of the variance is not luck, in that Woody makes the right pitches at the right time (e.g. guys that get on don’t score as much because of better situational pitching) but I remain very suspicious of situational variances being much more than luck/random variance.
October 2, 2006 at 2:23 pm
GY, is there a better way to do tables on your blog? I do it with spaces, but it never lines up.
October 2, 2006 at 2:30 pm
Wow I sure am getting lightheaded. Oh, it must be because I have PLAYOFF FEVER. I can’t wait to not do any work for 3 hours tomorrow while I stare at Gamecast cursing/pumping my fist in the air. With my pants off. Hopefully people in the office will understand.
October 2, 2006 at 2:31 pm
I’m not against Woody pinch-hitting if he’s not starting.
October 2, 2006 at 2:36 pm
Not sure if anybody’s mentioned this, but I have one very big fear about Peavy starting the first or the second game. Peavy, like a lot of power pitchers, is dramatically better in night games. I don’t know why, but here are the numbers this season:
Night - 7-8, 3.24 ERA, .231 BAA
Day - 4-6, 5.66 ERA, .262 BAA
Do we dare save him for game 3?
October 2, 2006 at 2:40 pm
42, I had never heard of that. Is this a common trend for power pitchers?
October 2, 2006 at 2:45 pm
Kiel…a good perscription for Playoff Fever is MORE COWBELL!!!
October 2, 2006 at 2:55 pm
I’m not as worried about that because of Jake Peavy getting better down the stretch:
Aug 2-3 2.87 ERA/1.17 WHIP
Sept 4-1 2.43 ERA/ 1.08 WHIP
October 2, 2006 at 2:59 pm
44 - Ah yes, by the time Peavy steps off the mound, we’ll all be wearing gold-plated diapers.
October 2, 2006 at 2:59 pm
I think the splits are all fine and dandy, but thinking a little more holistically, Jake is Jake. He’s our ace, and he’ll do us proud in game 1. David Wells is “a big game pitcher” and CY has been great this season. We’ll be fine, and I think we have a shot at returning the favor to the Cards (sweep!)
October 2, 2006 at 3:03 pm
11 games boys, 11 games. You can go 11-8 for all anyone cares, just win 11 more.
The NL is yours for the taking if you play the way you’ve played this past month. After that, win one more than you lose.
Oh, and by the way, if you do - you instantly become the best sports team this town has ever had. #1 on the list.
October 2, 2006 at 3:14 pm
47 - I’m with you but my fear is that now David Wells is just “a big pitcher.” That is to say I have my gouts, er, doubts.
October 2, 2006 at 3:25 pm
32, Hi Calvin, thanks for the check-in. I missed your post from before, nice to have thoughtful visiting fans. I did not know Cardinal fans boo-ed. I always thought they were very polite, even applauding the visitors (easy to do when you are mashing them into a pulp, as the Cards typically do at home). Our pitching numbers look at lot better, but I have seen Carpenter, Reyes and Weaver all throw very good games against the Padres, so am not expecting BP.
And it is always scary running the Pujols-Rolen-Edmonds gauntlet. Any word about Eckstein’s health or Edmonds’ ability to fly? Or is he on a bus as we write? I think you will need both of them in the line up to get the punch you need to overcome some so-so pitching.
October 2, 2006 at 3:27 pm
32, And if Pujols goes yard on Meredith again, will you ask him to just run the bases next time? He has certainly earned his shares of stares (and nothing like Manny) but undermines his otherwise classiness.
October 2, 2006 at 3:33 pm
Re: 49
I agree that Wells isn’t great, but if Weaver is going for the Cards, I’ll take Wells. And our chances with Peavy and CY are golden, so I think we have at least 2 wins in the first 3.
October 2, 2006 at 3:39 pm
Jay: Re: #39, I’m afraid not. Re: #43, Bill James talked about this phenomenon in his 1984 Baseball Abstract. Can’t remember specifically what he said, though. I’ll take a look tonight if I have time.
October 2, 2006 at 5:03 pm
http://www.baseballmusings.com.....series.php
Preview by David Pinto. I think it’s a fair analysis.
October 2, 2006 at 5:36 pm
jay: Historically, Cardinals fans don’t boo, but this year they’ve seemed more impatient with their own players. They got on Izzy and Juan Encarnacion in April (which lead to Albert publicly expressing disappointment in the fans, which impressed me). I think the fans see the window closing, and they’re panicking.
Regarding Eckstein: Well he came back from the oblique injury he sustained in August on Sept. 18th, only to get hit with a pitch on the 30th, and leave with a hamstring problem. I haven’t heard anything as to whether David is still suffering from post-concussion syndrome himself, so I’d guess he’s past it. Odds are he’ll be Game 1 starter, and Tony will see where it goes from there. If he’s out, you’ve got to deal with Aaron Miles most likely, as both SS and leadoff hitter. He’s a lot like Eck, one of those “scrappy little hustle players”, only not as talented. But we’ve gotten more from him than I think any Cards fan expected when he came over in the trade to get rid of Ray King.
Regarding Edmonds: Whether he’s flying or taking the bus, I’ve got no idea. He missed Sunday’s game with a ’sore foot’. He says he could have played, Tony says Edmonds said it hurt to run on the foot, which Jim doesn’t remember saying. Ugh. This kind of miscommunication between player and manager/trainers has been happening all year, I don’t know what it’s about.
Still, if Jim is there, he’ll probably start, except against Wells. Jim’s OPS against lefties is .479 this year, so Tony’s wisely platooning him. When he’s not starting, it looks like Taguchi will be, apparently based on his 5 for 7 hitting performance against San Diego this year (I’m not kidding). Of course, he’s also a stellar defensive player {Note: So Taguchi may not actually be a stellar defensive player, I’m not well enough versed in the defensive stats to know. He’s got a Range Factor of 2.34 and a Zone Rating of .873 in CF}. Given the Cards somewhat lethargic bats, I’d prefer Duncan in left, Encarnacion in CF, and John Rodriguez in RF, but Preston Wilson is much more likely, which means each at-bat has 2 outcomes: Home run, or strikeout.
Ultimately I’d expect both Eck and Eds to play (health permitting), but it’s a question of whether they can play well. They ought to be fresh at least, what with sitting on the bench for a month. Personally, I expect more from Eckstein than Edmonds, since Jim is such a streaky player and he doesn’t seem to be in one of his super-hot streaks, which probably means he’ll strike out a lot. Eckstein can usually scrape a hit or a HBP here and there, even if things aren’t going well.
Last thing. I’d seen some people wondering why the Cards poor record hasn’t gotten more ridicule in the media. I’ll put out a couple of theories: One, everyone’s talked so much about how bad they are during the losing streak, there’s nothing else to say. Two, everyone expected them to finish the collapse, and were preparing their stories about how “The Great Roger Clemens carried the Astros on his back to another postseason”, and when that didn’t happen, they were just stumped as to what to write (thank goodness that didn’t transpire, another Clemens love-fest would have lead to a lot of projectile vomiting by me).
Still, other than Will Leitch at Deadspin (an admitted Cardinals fan) I haven’t seen anybody picking the Cards to win. I’d say the Cards are widely acknowledged as an inferior team, which I’ve got to admit has removed a lot of pressure for me when it comes to watching. If they win, awesome. If they lose, well, it’s not really that much of a surprise, is it?
October 2, 2006 at 5:56 pm
Thanks for the insights Calvin. One of the reasons I’m glad we’re playing the Cardinals is they have a great fan base, knowledgeable and respectful. I’m surprised to hear they were booing their own.
I think one reason we don’t hear the same criticism about the Cards that we heard last year about the Padres is the Cards have Pujols and in many people’s minds any team with Pujols can’t be that bad. If the Padres had a mega star on the team last year I think we would have heard less about their mediocrity.
Anyone have any thoughts on whether the Padres are going to carry three catchers in the playoffs? It seems like it would be limiting but it’s worked out well all year.
October 2, 2006 at 6:10 pm
#27
It’s not up to the Giants to help the Padres win the division…but it should be up to professional atheletes to show up and do their damndest to try and win the game(s) and the Giants on Saturday and Sunday clearly didn’t give a damn about winning. As someone said in the IGD..the Giants went down on 5 pitches in the 9th on Sunday and the only reason it was 5 pitches and not 3 was that Todd Greene couldn’t hit any of the 3 pitches that were thrown to him…
October 2, 2006 at 6:18 pm
I’m sure the Dodgers didn’t appreciate the Diamondbacks using the last half of yesterday’s game as a celebration and taking out some of their good players. Even though Arizona did rally, that game was also a farce. Yes, the Diamondbacks are dismantling the remains of a team they should have dismantled four years ago. Big deal. Let’s all stand up and cheer.
Even if the Giants would have gone out there and literally laid down on the field, the Padres can’t control that. The Padres can only control what they do. And fans can’t control any of it, so why does it matter?
October 2, 2006 at 6:38 pm
I also didn’t see any Padre pitcher hitting a triple in the Arizona series…you can’t tell me that Gonzalez and all of their young guys gave up the same way the Giants did.
My gosh the Giants are a mess next year, especially once Schmidt leaves and they give Bonds another 10M+ per season.
Mark
October 2, 2006 at 7:15 pm
Thought I’d pass on a blog entry on DeadSpin, written by Dex over at Gaslamp Ball.
http://www.deadspin.com/sports.....204537.php
October 2, 2006 at 7:43 pm
Position Matchups:
C:Piazza vs. Molina - it’s an extreme offensive catcher vs. an extreme defensive catcher. Edge is slightly to the Pads, mostly because Bard is also a strong offensive catcher. But if the games are all close, Molina might get the edge if he can shut down Roberts and Cameron and Barfield
1B: Gonzalez vs. Pujols - I like Gonzalez, but Albert is in another league at this point. It’s not even close.
2B: Barfield vs. Belliard: Barfield had a solid rookie year - it would have been even better if his home park hadn’t suppressed his stats so horribly. Belliard batted 237 with a 295 OBP after joining the Cards, and he’s a below-average defensive second sacker.
SS: Greene vs Eckstein - Eck batted 500 times, drove in 23 runs and scored 68. None of these numbers are good. He’s a feisty, hard-nosed player and a lot of people thin that overcomes his poor offensive numbers. Greene is an unknow commodity due to injury. Healthy, he’s better, but he’s not completely healthy right now.
3B: Branyan vs. Rolen - Rolen is a stud but has played poorly down the stretch. Branyan has played well enough, but the edge goes to Scott by far.
LF: Roberts vs. Wilson: Wilson has hit 243 with a 300 OBP since joining the Cards, and he’s an adventure in the field. Roberts is having his best season. Edge to Roberts.
CF: Cameron vs. Edmonds: By the Hardball Times VOB (value over bench) stat Cameron is the tenth best player in the national league. He has had an outstanding year, especially considering he missed the first moth of the season. Edmonds is a wild-card - still woozy from aconcussion, but seems to be a gamer and hit well against SD last week. If he’s fully recovered then it’s a push; otherwise, the edge goes to Cameron.
RF: Giles vs. Duncan - Duncan had a great month; Giles has had a subpar year. I’ll still take Giles due to his ability to work a walk and his above-average defense in right.
That’s just the starters. I couldn’t venture a guess on the makeup of ST Louis’ bench so I won’t. It seems like the starting lineups are pretty even, with the slight edge going to STL. Which means the Pads have to pitch well to have a chance. I hope they can.
October 2, 2006 at 8:25 pm
Scored some seats to Game 1!
Any suggestions for parking for a weekday day game? In the past, I’ve parked in the structure just east of Petco, across the street from the tailgate lot, but I don’t know if that will be full on a weekday afternoon. Padres.com does not have any presale parking available so that’s not an option. Should I just take the trolley?
(It is in your best interest to get me to this game - the Pads are 3-0 when I attend playoff games!)
October 2, 2006 at 8:53 pm
Just a note about 2007 … I agree with folks who think that the Padres getting a player like Joe Crede would be key this off season … with that in mind, here’s a note from today’s rotoworld.com …
Joe Crede is still deciding whether to have surgery to alleviate his stiff lower back.
Last month he said he was leaning towards surgery, but now he says he wants to get a second opinion. Crede’s ability to get a long-term deal from the Chisox could hinge on whether he has the surgery or not. The team wants to be rid of its concerns that his back issues will be a concern over the long haul.
October 2, 2006 at 9:02 pm
#63:
Offseason can wait! Right? SD is in the postseason for the 5th time ever. Let’s worry about Crede etc. affter October.
October 2, 2006 at 9:08 pm
What if the Padres traded their entire roster for the Yankees entire roster. Tomorrow.
October 2, 2006 at 9:27 pm
Lynch Mob- you were right
October 2, 2006 at 9:30 pm
From padres.com: “In addition to the starting eight behind Peavy — with Geoff Blum expected to start at shortstop and Russell Branyan at third — the six extra roster spots for position players probably will go to catchers Josh Bard and Rob Bowen, infielders Greene, Todd Walker and Mark Bellhorn and first baseman/outfielder Klesko.”
So it appears that Bellhorn will get the spot in lieu of, say, an extra outfielder or someone that could, I dunno, actually hit. And Greene’s likely presence as a glove man makes Bellhorn completely unnecessary to field; he’s just there as a right handed “bat”. That bench is really disturbing in that we’ll have one person off the bench (the spare catcher) that can hit lefties, and La Russa loves to bring in the LOOGYs.
But, you know what, it shouldn’t matter. Go Peavy and Wells and Young, and please whoever plays third don’t make any bad plays.
October 2, 2006 at 9:30 pm
Found a seat Field Reserved 122 for tomorrow’s game. Thinking about pushing the buy button… $62.. not a bad deal
October 2, 2006 at 9:46 pm
Hmm…it seems like everyone has a ticket(s) to get rid of for tomorrow’s game. Craigslist is full of listings, ebay is full of listings, Padres Ticket Marketplace is full of listings, even padres.com has some singles to get rid of. I was hoping to get rid of the extra one I have at the park tomorrow, but at this rate, there maybe more sellers than buyers. I’m more worried that the stadium will be partially empty than I am about getting my money back, I want a full, rowdy crowd for my first playoff game ever
October 2, 2006 at 9:54 pm
Fox’s Rosenthal picks a San Diego-New York rematch…
“My picks? Yankees over the Twins in the AL, Padres over the Dodgers in the NL, Yankees over Padres in the World Series.”
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6021324
October 2, 2006 at 10:10 pm
Key to the Series
The Padres are clearly the better team, but if they can’t get to Carpenter in one of his two starts, they could be in trouble. Carpenter’s given up 12 runs in his last 15 innings, so he’s certainly been mortal of late. Because of the schedule, the series may hinge on whether San Diego can handle the Cards’ ace.
Offense, Rotation, Bullpen, Bench, Defense, Manager…
In only the “Manager” collumn, does Dayn Perry give the edge to Cardinals…
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6021514
October 2, 2006 at 11:08 pm
Larussa also won’t have 9 LOOGY’s available though
October 3, 2006 at 6:01 am
Today’s USA Today mentioned that the Padres D is below average except for Khalil and AGON. What the Jimmy! Our OF defense has been well above average with Roberts/Cameron/Giles all being recognized by the “so called experts” as such even…
October 3, 2006 at 6:03 am
Also, the Padres ended up #1 in Defensive Efficiency (which I believe is the ability to turn a ball in play into an out) as per Baseball Prospectus.
Rosenthal says our D was the best in the league in his article. In fact the only place the Cards have the advantage over us is in the managerial category.
October 3, 2006 at 6:21 am
re: 67 - what, no need for backup OF’s besides Klesko? And, let me go on record as saying that if Ryno sees a single pitch from the outfield grass, I will be really pissed off.
How do you keep Bellhorn on the roster and not a backup OF like Sledge or Johnson…?
October 3, 2006 at 7:14 am
Agreed that we need a backup OF. I guess Blum can play LF if necessary too (if he’s not playing SS though).
I guess Roberts is in there against LHP too then. I’d MUCH rather see BJ than Bellhorn.
October 3, 2006 at 8:32 am
What, Bellhorn? I sure hope this will work out.
He barely played in September and not so much in August.
No backup OF other than Klesko? Crazy.
I hope not to see another catcher in LF scenario.