Peavy, Padres Roll in Opener
Wed, Apr 4, 2007
by Geoff Young
Nice way to start the season, eh? First Opening Day shutout in club history (recap | box score). Sure, that works.
Jake Peavy had a strong outing, spinning six scoreless innings against the Giants at PhoneCo. One of the things we’ve harped on here in the past is the need for Peavy to pitch with greater efficiency. Last season, only four NL moundsmen used more pitches per plate appearance than Peavy’s 3.97. Anecdotally, it seemed that he had trouble putting batters away once he got ahead in the count.
Tuesday night’s outing was a mixed bag in terms of efficiency. The negative is that Peavy needed 98 pitches to get through 6 innings — not horrible, but not great. He faced 23 batters in the game, which works out to 4.26 P/PA.
With a few notable exceptions, though, Peavy did a fairly good job of finishing off hitters once he got ahead. He threw 27 two-strike pitches on Tuesday, and they break down as follows:
- ball: 9
- foul ball: 5
- ground ball: 5
- called strike: 3
- swinging strike: 3
- fly out: 2
Of the five ground balls, two resulted in singles. In the first inning, Peavy induced Barry Bonds to take a very awkward swing on a 3-2 slider; thanks to an exaggerated defensive shift, the ball trickled through the left side of the infield for a base hit. Then in the third, Dave Roberts nubbed a 2-2 slider up the first base line that Peavy kicked; it was a tough play and correctly ruled a hit.
The troublesome at-bats came against Bonds in the first (three balls after getting ahead, 0-2), Pedro Feliz in the second (two balls and two fouls after getting ahead, 1-2), and Rich Aurilia in the sixth (three balls and a foul after getting ahead, 0-2). I understand working carefully to Bonds, but with the kind of stuff Peavy has, you’d like to see him be a little more aggressive with Feliz and Aurilia. The two balls to Feliz just missed outside, but still, there’s never a reason to throw that guy eight pitches.
Anyway, we’re nitpicking. Peavy looked real good. The Giants mounted only two semi-serious threats all night. In the first inning, after Bonds singled to left, he caught the Padres napping and stole second. Then Ray Durham hit a routine grounder to Khalil Greene that should have ended the inning. Greene threw low and miracle worker Adrian Gonzalez couldn’t come up with the ball. Bonds, perhaps feeling a little extra adrenaline surge from the stolen base, tried to score standing up but was thrown out with ease.
The one other chance for San Francisco came in the seventh. Cla Meredith allowed a leadoff single to Bengie Molina. The next batter, Feliz, worked the count full before flailing at a pitch that was at least a foot outside. Randy Winn followed with a single before Ryan Klesko rapped into a first-pitch 4-6-3 double play to end the threat. If Feliz takes the 3-2 pitch, this inning gets real interesting.
On the offensive side, Brian Giles, Gonzalez, Josh Bard, Greene, and Jose Cruz Jr. all looked good. Giles and Gonzalez both stayed in nicely against tough left-handers, and both were robbed of base hits by Ray Durham, who made two terrific diving stops to his left.
Bard was a monster, collecting four hits in his final four at-bats. He got in some good swings from both sides of the plate and even had a nice six-pitch at-bat the one time he didn’t get a hit.
Greene drove in the Padres’ fifth run with a sharp single to left in the eighth. Before that, in the second, he took Roberts to the center field wall on a 1-1 curve from Zito.
Cruz did a great job at the plate and in the field. He drew a bases-loaded walk in the fourth that helped push Zito toward the end of his line. Later, batting left-handed, Cruz crushed an 0-2 offering from reliever Kevin Correia that hit the base of the wall in deepest center field. I’m pretty sure that one is a homer at Petco Park.
Speaking of Zito, the $126 million man cruised through the first three innings, using just 32 pitches. Then his command and defense deserted him, and he needed 37 pitches to get through the fourth. That inning, after Cameron walked and Bard singled, Greene reached on an error by Feliz, and Kevin Kouzmanoff “singled” to left on a soft liner that dropped in front of Bonds. Before long, the Padres had extended their lead to 3-0.
I almost feel for Bruce Bochy. Almost. It was his choice to move north, and now there he is. Still, the guy has a third baseman that can’t hit or field, possibly the worst defensive outfield in baseball, and a suspect bullpen. It’s only one game, but I can’t stop wondering how long it is before Giants fans grow accustomed to seeing Bochy remove his cap and run his fingers through his hair.
Like I said, almost. They are the enemy, yo.
Great start to the season. Awesome to see Bud Black get that first victory out of the way. If his team can swing about 90 more of those over the next six months, we’ll be in good shape.
Here’s hoping…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
April 4, 2007 at 1:32 am
Flan had a great quote about Bonds going home on the error:
“Any time the ball is in front of him, it’s his call. Joey Amalfitano once told me: ‘If he’s making $10 million and you’re making $60,000, let him make the call.’ I did.”
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/gameda.....p;c_id=mlb
Peavy wasn’t perfect today, but 30 starts like that and the Pads are in good shape.
April 4, 2007 at 1:33 am
I’m having a heck of a time sleeping over here the past week or two, and so I actually wathced 8 iniings last night (until about 2 in the morning). Great opening day!
Peavy looked much better and hopefully will become more efficient as the season progresses. The offense looked good. Lots of good AB’s, working the count and good situational hitting. Adrian’s 2-out RBI single was beautiful. He stayed on the pitch and took it the other way, right where it was pitched, and just what was needed to get the runner home in that situation.
Very disappointed in both NOG and Greene. Marcus seemed unaware he didn’t have to swing at everyy pitch thrown, and Greene has yet another stance, stride and timing mechanism, not to mention he still appears not to realize he can reach base via a base on balls.
Nonetheless, it’s still early, we won, and we looked good doing so. Let’s Go Padres!!!
April 4, 2007 at 1:37 am
Jeff, that is a great quote. And it sounds just like Flan. I had forgotten he was up there coaching 3B now. I didn’t see a single shot of him the whole game.
April 4, 2007 at 2:03 am
Hey, some guy named Geoff wrote this thing and it’s posted over at BTF.
http://www.baseballthinkfactor.....go_padres/
April 4, 2007 at 3:08 am
Geoff, don’t feel too bad for Bochy; he’s gotten used to horrible third basemen. And Feliz actually is a really good fielder or has been the past few years, so he has one redeeming quality.
Last year Matt Cain went 3-0 against the Padres with a 1.33 ERA, only giving up 12 hits in 27 innings. Hopefully the Padres will be a little better against him tomorrow, or at least force him to throw a lot of pitchers so we get to that tasty San Fran bullpen by the 7th.
April 4, 2007 at 6:26 am
#5 The good news is that he went 9-12 with a 4.69 ERA against the rest of the league.
April 4, 2007 at 8:20 am
Anyone see what Felix Hernandez did up in Seattle the other day (I know, a bit off topic, but this is crazy)? He went 8 innings, got 12 K’s and 12 ground outs. That would mean that he pitched an entire 8 innings without giving up a fly ball. That is crazy.
I hope Peavy can figure out a way to pitch more efficiently. It would be nice to see him at 100 pitches after 7 instead of after 6. If he can do that, then he can throw 200+ innings and take down another K/ERA title. If he can’t, then we may see a repeat of 2006.
April 4, 2007 at 8:53 am
Who else read this in today’s UT and thought “This is EXACTLY what we hoped these guys would be doing!”:
“More recently, Peavy discussed the same subject with Black and veteran Padres pitchers Greg Maddux and David Wells over a dinner that consumed three hours and touched on decades of experience.
“Buddy told me the louder the crowd gets the softer you need to get,” said Peavy. “Greg and David emphasized the importance of calming yourself down. ”
Of course, any dinner w/ Wells pre-diabetes diagnosis was a threat to go 3 hours, but still, I find this very encouraging. Also refutes a lot of those “Maddux isn’t a good teammate” claims that popped up when we signed him.
April 4, 2007 at 9:25 am
I was at the game; if I could find that connector do-hickey that allows me to download my images, I would send them to Geoff to post (if he felt like it). But alas.
Anyway, as I have posted before, remember the Padres being 15-42 against the Giants, 1999-2003? I went to a lot of those games up here. I don’t know what SF’s winning percentage was like in SF vs SD for games in SF, but it was high. Very high. So going to watch my team get their ass kicked felt a bit more like duty than actual fun.
That is changing, but I still get a Pavlovian sense of dread going to the games, watching the Pads keep that crowd very, very quiet, I began to feel OK.
Geoff covered most everything; I sure hope NOG starts to look better; lots of big swings with little results. Kouzmanoff did not look that great either, and man KG loves to fish for that low curve. But, let’s see what happens.
I also Tivo-ed the game, and I would argue that 70% of Peavy’s balls were borderline. As Geoff was describing, he needs to be more efficient, but he was not missing by much.
I do feel badly for Bochy. I am glad to have Black, but basically Bochy left because the Padres management had some reservations about Bochy and could not guarantee a LT deal for him. I believe those reservations were well founded and I think it was the right move for the Padres, but I still feel badly for Bochy. He is the right manager for the Giants, given their veteran bias on offense and relative youth on pitching.
But, maybe the Giants will shut me up, but this line up looks bad.
Over the major “power positions”, 1B, 3B, RF, LF, looked at Pecota’s projected OPS:
Klesko/Aurilia: 790/774 (I think Klesko will be over 850, so that is a decent pick up, but still a risky one)
Feliz: 753
Bonds: 976 (that works)
Winn: 799
Then you add in an outfield defense of Bonds in LF, Roberts in CF and the pitching staff is going to have a tougher time this year.
Watch them just destroy us the next two games, but my read is that they will easily be dead last in NL West. As I said, I feel bad for Bochy.
April 4, 2007 at 9:42 am
Have I mentioned how much I love the word “moundsmen”? GY, you’re the king.
April 4, 2007 at 9:43 am
I got the impression that when Peavy was ahead in the count he was trying to get the batter to swing at pitches out of the zone. It was especially noticable in the first Bonds AB. I’d like to see him trust his stuff and be more agressive with two strikes. When he can throw that nasty slider in on the hands or back door for strike three he doesn’t need to screw around with breaking balls out of the zone. Can’t complain about the results yesterday, it’s just that he’s so good we’d all like to see him take it to the next level.
April 4, 2007 at 9:45 am
One thing that impressed me during the game was Adrian’s throw to the plate to get Bonds out. Even though Bonds isn’t that fast, he still had to get to that ball quickly and throw it off stride to get him out. Watch the replay, he throws a perfect strike to Bard on the 3rd base line while off-balance to preserve the shut-out. Not an easy play by any means.
April 4, 2007 at 10:16 am
12 … rats, the highlights at padres.mlb.com (http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=sd) do not include this play … sure seems like it should!
April 4, 2007 at 10:17 am
13 … here’s that link again … i’ll bet this time it becomes a link … http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....sp?c_id=sd … GY, this seems like a link i’d use a lot if you had on the left …
April 4, 2007 at 10:38 am
Nobody mentioned Heath Bell. I don’t know how much they paid for this guy, but two strong innings in the pen. Another great aquisition by KT. The Pads may have a stronger bullpen than last year, which is hard to believe.
April 4, 2007 at 10:44 am
Heath looked strong. Big boy. On the Giants telecast, they commented on how SD likes to collect local products (Giles bros, Wells, Gonzalez and Bell [Oceanside]). They said, “If you throw 95 and grew in SD, you can be on the Padres”. For some reason, I thought it was pretty funny.
April 4, 2007 at 10:47 am
Boy it felt good this morning to open the UT’s sports page to FPFOP. (Front Page Full Of Padres.) I noticed that the Pads were betting underdogs in yesterday’s game and are underdogs again tonight. Not sure I understand that, except its the Giants playing at home.
April 4, 2007 at 10:47 am
Agreed, Bell looked good. I remember thinking in ST what a funky delivery he has. It can’t be easy to pick up the ball coming out of his hand. Love that curve ball.
April 4, 2007 at 10:54 am
does anyone thinkg that that pads would have any intrest in Jorge Cantu? he was send to AAA and is now asking the Devil Rays to trade him, i know he is poor on D but maybe being in SD would revitalize his bat and he could be that right handed stick off the bench.
April 4, 2007 at 11:43 am
Just got my ESPN the Mag., which I never read, but it’s the MLB preview. I like Tim Kurkjian, who doesn’t, but he writes some odd stuff in the NL preview. His Dodgers capsule - under the heading “FIXED” (the other being “NEEDS FIXING”) - says Juan Pierre is the perfect complement to Rafael Furcal, mentioning the former’s hit total during the last six years being 2nd in MLB. Yeah, but what about his out total, average stolen base rate and lack of any pop?
For the Pads, under “Needs fixing,” he mentions that Kouzmanoff hasn’t shown that he can pull the ball despite leading AA and AAA in slugging. Funny, at ESPN.com, TK picked Kouz to be NL rookie of the year.
Lastly for the Giants, the “FIXED” category is devoted mostly to Dave Roberts. TK says that Roberts’ D should be a “great benefit” to Barry Bonds. Roberts is back in CF, right? At AT&T, no less.
Has anyone had trouble with typing speed since the Preview function was added? At both work and home, words display at maybe half the speed that I am typing them. It’s a deterrent to posting. Maybe for me that’s not a bad thing.
April 4, 2007 at 12:01 pm
No problem with posting speed here. Maybe you have to write a 5 paragraph essay to encounter that bug.
April 4, 2007 at 12:18 pm
21 … check that … 4 paragraphs
April 4, 2007 at 12:41 pm
22… It just didn’t sound right that way. Wait a minute…are you Mrs. “Perspicacious” Peterson from UC High?
April 4, 2007 at 12:55 pm
22: I wish. When I type, text appears in the reply field and the preview field. I imagine it’s that way for all of us. I haven’t seen preview features work this way in other msg. boards I frequent.
April 4, 2007 at 12:57 pm
OK, that shoulda been 21.
And, yes, I know Ducksnorts is not a msg. board.
April 4, 2007 at 1:02 pm
Good to see Fick in the middle of a bottom-of-9th rally for victory … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270404120
April 4, 2007 at 1:03 pm
25 I was just teasing you. I doubt anybody minds long comments. I need all the entertainment I can get.
I’m just telling you that the words are appearing at the same speed in both boxes for me.
April 4, 2007 at 1:07 pm
Watching the game yesterday made me wonder why Bochy would take that job. The Giants just aren’t that good. They might get lucky and have a bunch of guys with career years, but that probably only gets them to about 85 wins or so.
I understand that Bochy wanted a long term deal but why would you give up a better job to take a worse one? I don’t think that he was going to get fired in the last offseason although this would’ve been his last year with the Padres. You have to have serious questions about Bochy’s judgement after his decision.
April 4, 2007 at 1:38 pm
It is going to be a very long year for Bochy…and the Giants’ fans. He doesn’t have half the talent he had with the Pads, and his poor decisions will stick out like a sore thumb.
April 4, 2007 at 2:41 pm
17 - LaMar, as someone who knows more than I should about baseball wagering, the betting line is influenced by the Giants’ playing at home, but much more by Cain’s past record of success against us. Starting pitching is the single biggest variable the bookies look at when setting baseball lines.
April 4, 2007 at 2:52 pm
#30 — Stu, I knew about Cain’s stats against us, but I seem to remember that his record last year at the start of the season was horrible. He didn’t get hot until the 2nd half, during the time when the Pads faced him. I’m wondering which Cain shows up. I would think the odds maker’s would too.
I unfortunately, do not know enough about baseball gambling, judging from my frequent losses. Lack of knowledge has never stopped me from dropping a few bucks, here and there. In fact, my pocket has a ticket for the Padres to win the World Series at 21-1.
April 4, 2007 at 3:03 pm
Every serious handicapper and railbird type I’ve ever spoken to agrees that baseball is the easiest professional sport to bet on. I find this very interesting because betting on baseball (at least in the Vegas sportsbooks) is not at all popular - pro and college football and basketball are the big moneymakers. Baseball is just something the sportsbooks put up to keep busy in the summer months.
LaMar, your comment about wondering which Cain is going to show up is indicative of how someone who follows a team very closely *might* have a potential edge over an oddsmaker. An oddsmaker, especially on baseball, has to keep up with dozens of teams playing hundreds of games (but never forget, the oddsmakers are almost certainly smarter than we are). We, on the other hand, can limit our obsession to one team and 162 games, and if we’re lucky, some postseason contests as well.
April 4, 2007 at 5:40 pm
Funny because I know more about baseball than any other sport and I won’t bet a dollar on it. I will bet on cricket or carriage racing before I bet on baseball.