Padres Set to Release Walker
Tue, Mar 27, 2007
by Geoff Young
Veteran second baseman Todd Walker will be released today by the Padres. Walker won an arbitration hearing in February that set his 2007 salary at $3.95 million. By releasing him now, the Padres owe him just $987,000. GM Kevin Towers, however, claims that Walker’s salary “didn’t factor into the decision.”
Should we take Towers at his word? Setting aside money for a moment, let’s take a look at the baseball side of this equation. Walker essentially could have filled one of three roles for the Padres this season:
- Starting second baseman
- Utility player
- Left-handed pinch-hitter
We’ll examine each of these possibilities:
Starting Second Baseman
Walker was penciled in as San Diego’s starting second baseman until Marcus Giles fell into the Padres’ lap last December. This is similar to when Mike Piazza joined the ballclub late in spring 2006 and pushed Doug Mirabelli into a backup role. Obviously Walker is a much better player than Mirabelli, but the point is, there’s that same dynamic of a guy coming in unexpectedly and gumming up the works.
On offense, Giles is projected to hit somewhere in the 742-787 OPS range, while Walker is pegged at 704-787. Even if we call this a wash (Walker’s floor is lower, and he’s more likely to be in the midst of his decline years, but let’s give him the benefit of the doubt here), Giles’ glove should give him the edge.
Acknowledging that range factor is not the perfect defensive metric, here’s how the two stack up in recent years:
| 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Giles | 5.42 | 5.18 | 4.91 |
| Walker | 4.36 | 4.59 | 4.35 |
Yes, that’s a nasty downward trend for Giles (although injuries may have played a role — part of the risk in signing Giles in the first place), but he still reaches a lot more balls than Walker.
So basically Giles is 5 years younger than Walker, a superior defender, and at least as good on offense. He also, for those who take stock in such things, is having a much better spring. In other words, Giles is better qualified for the job in every way.
Utility Player
A utility player should be able to perform a wide variety of tasks reasonably well. He doesn’t have to be as good as the regulars he occasionally is called on to replace, but he shouldn’t put his team at a huge disadvantage when forced to take the field.
In a perfect world, your utility guy can play seven positions. If his bat is especially potent, four might suffice. How does Walker measure up here? Let’s look at his career innings by position:
2B: 8272
3B: 606.2
1B: 376.2
SS: 4
LF: 2
Almost all of Walker’s experience (89% of innings) is at second base. Runner up is third base, but that accounts for just 6.6% of Walker’s career innings, and he demonstrated convincingly last year that he cannot play the position.
First base? Most of his time there came last year with the Cubs while Derrek Lee was on the shelf, but he seemed to do okay. Maybe Walker could spell Adrian Gonzalez against tough lefties:
| BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzalez | .312 | .345 | .489 |
| Walker | .271 | .367 | .417 |
Or maybe not.
In Walker, we have a “utility player” who can play two positions. I’m not sure how useful that is. Much as I hate to say anything overly positive about Geoff Blum, he is a better option. So is Oscar Robles.
Left-Handed Pinch-Hitter
This probably was Walker’s best fit on the current Padres. The main problem there is that he hasn’t fared well as a pinch-hitter (.241/.283/.315 in 54 AB) over the past three seasons. It’s not much of a sample, and I imagine Walker probably could transform himself into a Mark Sweeney type.
Is there anyone else on the roster that could fill the role of left-handed bat off the bench? Off the top of my head, I count Russell Branyan, Jack Cust, and Paul McAnulty. None of these guys is accomplished in that role, but all three have more offensive upside than Walker.
In other words, Walker is a decent option, but probably not the best available to the Padres.
Back to the Money
Here’s where things get interesting. The Padres potentially save $3 million by releasing Walker. The players’ union is expected to file a grievance claiming that this move was financially driven rather than performance driven. It’s a union’s job to protect its people, so I’ve got no real problem with that.
What I find fascinating is the fact that the Padres are willing to take the risk that they’ll end up having to pay Walker big bucks to take his services elsewhere. Yes, the Pads could save money on the deal, but we know the MLBPA is one of the strongest labor unions in the world, so there’s also a pretty decent chance that the cost will be the same either way.
I don’t know enough about how the arbitration process works to say whether the union’s grievance has teeth. That said, I can’t imagine the union making a stink if it thought there was no chance of victory.
From where I sit, the Padres essentially are saying that, for reasons outlined above, they can’t use Walker. Given that fact, they’re releasing him now rather than later to avoid paying him for services they’ve already determined they don’t need.
At the same time, I’m sure the Padres recognize that they may be forced to pay Walker anyway. It’s a lousy situation for both sides (and I know I’ve only presented management’s side — Walker is a decent second baseman in a market where there just isn’t much demand for his skill set), but would anyone rather the Padres keep a guy around just because they’re paying him? We’ve seen that before, and it’s not much fun.
If the union files a grievance and wins, I expect some folks will have a good laugh at the Padres’ expense, claiming that they got slapped down for trying to be cheap. I won’t be one of them. To me, this is a team making the best baseball decision regardless of potential consequences.
The situation stinks for Walker, who is no longer the best man for the job he was signed to perform. It stinks for the Padres, who have reminded us why they typically don’t go to arbitration with their players.
In the end, the club has to defend its NL West title and field the best possible 25-man roster, which doesn’t include Walker. If the union can get money for their guy in the process, so be it. If the Padres can avoid paying that money, so be it. Either way, let’s hope for a quick resolution so this doesn’t take focus away from trying to win games once the bell rings.
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March 27, 2007 at 8:53 am
Nice analysis Geoff, I agree with you 100%. Also, Walker is useless as a pinch runner or late-inning defensive replacement.
I understand the union has to protect the players but if their argument is that you can’t release a player for financial reasons they’re being unreasonable. It’s always a combination of money and performance, it has to be. What if Walker was due $10 million, versus a $1 million buyout? Would they be wrong to release him then too?
The contract allows the Padres to release him so they’re going to do it, end of story. It’s like the JD Drew situation, only on a much smaller scale and in reverse. There’s no crying in baseball so suck it up and move on.
One question: If another team wants to sign Walker is that team on the hook for the remainder of the $4 million, or is he now a free agent with no contract?
March 27, 2007 at 9:05 am
Good job, Geoff.
We saw what NOG can do with the glove in Arizona. He looked great there and the PA wasn’t bad. Also, don’t forget Oscar Robles. He’s probably going to start in AAA but he was pesky at the plate and not bad playing 3B and SS. He’s the insurance policy, 3 years younger than Walker, also a lefty bat, and he’s from Tijuana, Mexico.
Scary and weird seeing Geoff Blum at 1B, but he seems to improve with each appearance there.
March 27, 2007 at 9:06 am
I like Walker as a backup, but since he’s basically only useful at 2B and as a PH I’m OK with him going.
I think Robles gets his spot though, not McAnulty.
March 27, 2007 at 9:22 am
I looked briefly at the terms of an older, not current, Collective Bargaining Agreement, since I couldn’t find the current one. I am assuming that if a player wins at arbitration, he receives a standard MLB Player Contract, much the same as a player receiving the minimum or non-arbitration eligible players.
Assuming that’s true, then the MLB Player Contract allows for a termination of the player, “. . . for failure to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability . . . .” But, if that player is terminated, he is entitled to receive “termination pay” of 45 days of his pay rate specified in the contract.
If this analysis is correct, then the question is whether Todd Walker exhibited “sufficient skill or compeititive ability” to justify termination or whether, as the Player’s Union will argue, if it was strictly for cost considerations and retaliation for the arbitration.
I’m a Union supporter, but I still think the Padres have the best of this argument. As a practical matter, though, I would suspect a grievance to be filed and a settlement worked out regarding money, which is more than the terminatin amount and less than the full amount of the contract.
March 27, 2007 at 9:53 am
4: That’s the crux of the matter. I thought that the standard contract is a broader term. It’s got standard language in it, but it can still be guaranteed or non-guaranteed. It doesn’t allow for any perks, side clauses, any fancy stuff, but can still be applied to a player you can cut w/termination pay or who you can cut but pay the whole thing. I could be totally off base there. I’m not a labor lawyer or anything.
If we’re still looking for a RH bench player, the Twins sent Matt LeCroy to the minors. He kills lefties. He can catch if you’re not going to allow any baserunners. Plays first. I’d rather have him than whoever our 12th pitcher will be.
March 27, 2007 at 9:59 am
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March 27, 2007 at 10:06 am
A nice article on Billy Wagner. He gave props to Trevor Hoffman.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2808507
#5: Maybe the Twins would want Walker. LeCroy for Walker? Where would he play, though. Backup C/1B might be a good idea especially since Peavy/Maddux never holds runners anyway, LeCroy could work here.
March 27, 2007 at 10:55 am
I don’t like the LeCroy option. I don’t think he’s a choice for any catching duties. I mean, he had his manager literally in tears last year due to his catching defense.
I think Houston is sending Eric Bruntlett down. I’d like to see us take a shot at him. He’s a great defender at SS, can play the rest of the infield and all three OF positions. He has good speed too. Seems like a useful 25th man off the bench.
March 27, 2007 at 10:59 am
Interesting article.
http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/019651.php
Look, Khalil is pretty good shortstop…or was it the combo of Greene/Barfield made a pretty good DP pair.
March 27, 2007 at 11:00 am
Bruntlett: is he the next Andy Sheet?
March 27, 2007 at 11:06 am
Bruntlett isn’t going to take over the world or anything but he seems useful. It’s nice to have a guy who is a good defender for when we need a fill in as well. As we all know, Blum isn’t the best defensive SS around.
I’d also like to see them take a look at Chris Denorfia. He’s a fantastic defender in the OF, can play LF/CF/RF and could replace Cruz as the RH LF. He’s someone we could use for a long time, rather than just a one year fill in like Cruz.
March 27, 2007 at 12:02 pm
I would rather have Denorfia, but what would he cost to acquire? If He could be had cheap i would do that in a second. do the reds keep him as insurance in AAA?
March 27, 2007 at 12:05 pm
Also guys you have to wonder about the fact that MLBPA, as reported in today’s UT, is anticipating filing a grievance to try and stop this. Also Cody Ross of the Marlins was a rumored candidate for the Padres to trade for recently…
March 27, 2007 at 12:57 pm
8: LeCroy is just a guy who can catch when your starter and backup both go down, before your backup in Portland can catch a plane. Like a Nevin or a Fick. His real value would be giving Gonzalez a few days off and hitting against LHP late in the game. That’s a lot more valuable than yet another backup infielder who can’t hit, and Bruntlett, with his 685 minor league OPS, is a backup infielder who can’t hit.
Hitting RH is only part of the equation. Hitting from the right side with any power is what we don’t have. Denorfia and Ross both have some sock, but we have lots of OF right now. Not bad options, but if we want somebody to give Agon a day off, neither works.
March 27, 2007 at 2:27 pm
Maddux being Maddux …
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/boxsco.....b_texmlb_1
1 hit + 0 walks in 4 IP so far
March 27, 2007 at 2:32 pm
re: Robles … I can’t say that I saw anything from Robles over the weekend that gave me any warm/fuzzies about his ability to contribute to the Padres in 2007 … ie. if injuries happen and he gets much playing time, I expect it to be “below replacement level” … but it does sorta look like he’s going to get Walker’s spot on the Opening Day roster … and I’m not sure that makes the Padres case (vis-a-vis Walker) stronger
March 27, 2007 at 3:28 pm
I know it’s only Spring Training, but please tell me how 21-2 in the Top of the 7th isn’t encouraging.
As of the top of the seventh, the Pads have TWENTY more at-bats than the Rangers.
The best part of all: 4 ER charged to Gagne
March 27, 2007 at 3:51 pm
Strickland is next:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....lease.html
Looks like Cameron and Thompson get the final two spots in the bullpen…
March 27, 2007 at 3:51 pm
16: I’m starting to think that the Padres believe they don’t have to justify why they cut him, that the type of contract he signed allows them to do this. You can make a case that Walker offers more versatility than anybody who might take that 25th spot - anybody currently on the roster, barring a trade.
March 27, 2007 at 4:48 pm
Wow, Rule V draftee over Strickland. Interesting since Cameron was not that good in the game that we saw in Arizona while Strickland was very efficient.
March 27, 2007 at 4:56 pm
I would have liked to have kept Walker. He offers a bit of a platoon for Giles, which is a nice to have, as well as injury protection. But, $4m is a lot for a back up 2B, and I am sure someone can argue that those funds have a better use. If Giles stays healthy and rebounds from last year, non-issue. If he gets hurt or slides further, a veteran who can get on base and play OK D will be looking pretty good. Maybe a lot of guys like that are floating around, maybe not.
March 27, 2007 at 5:29 pm
Also, any thoughts on BP’s Hope and Faith for the Pads?
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=6013
I like Marc Normandin’s writing, but I was kind of hoping to see one of our local blog authors do the analysis. I think the one thing missing is not that the Padres will be somewhat stronger but very thin at key positions (in the article), but it is the projected improvement of LA and PHX is probably the biggest question in my mind. I expect the Padres to be stronger, but I expect the other teams to be stronger as well. What team has the biggest bounce? Probably a function of luck and injuries.
March 27, 2007 at 6:51 pm
17 … I find today’s spring game VERY encouraging also …
Most encouraging items from today’s box score …
1. Sledge drew a walk … only his 4th this spring
2. 2 HRs from Branyan … he looked BAD on Friday, then better Sat & Sun … plus 2 singles!
3. Maddux’ final line: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K’s
4. Linebrink with a clean inning
Most discouraging: Bard was 0-for-6 …
March 27, 2007 at 9:17 pm
RE: Todd Walker.
Come on, folks, he was a pinch-hitter at best. He can’t field, and, to be frank, he didn’t hit very well last season either. He’s 33 years old, which means he’s probably not going to improve much, to say the least. I would rather see the Pads get younger or better defensively. They have plenty of younger PH options (McAnulty, Branyan, Cust) and better defensive options, too - Robles, Alexander, and the Cubs just sent out Tomas Perez, who I think would be a perfect fit for SD.
I think that San Diego is going to end up paying Walker his whole contract, if just to avoid the wrath of the union, and I think it’s fair - SD shouldn’t have offered arbitration if they weren’t willing to pay it. Hopefully this whole affair doesn’t affect the team morale much.
March 27, 2007 at 11:46 pm
22: Normandin is a Padre fan and in the past he has commented at Gas Lamp Ball. Also, the Padres should be the best team in the NL West if they get anything resembling eight wins out of David Wells. The Diamondbacks are probably the most improved team, though, and they’re the most legitimate challenger. LA looks more like a .500 team and both the Rockies and Giants should sport losing records at the end of the year.
March 28, 2007 at 7:06 am
Got Peavy in my fantasy, NL-only league. 3rd pick of the 3rd round even. I feel pretty good about that. Also snagged Bard in the last round.
March 28, 2007 at 7:28 am
24: It doesn’t seem like many people are mad about losing Walker’s talents. I’d rather have a hitter on the bench than another defensive middle infield specialist, but it’s not losing Walker that bugs me. It’s the Padres being jerks and possibly doing something against the letter and spirit of the contract. That’s not going to play well with other players. Come to San Diego, where if you accept our offer of arbitration and beat us, we’ll stop you from getting another job until they are all taken and then cut you.
March 28, 2007 at 7:38 am
3 months ago, I was very content going into the season with Walker as our starting 2b…as were many, if not most of you. Now suddenly he is a pariah that does not deserve a bench spot. Walker is still a useful player. He is a decent hitter, with some pop. Now, if we have a RH guy that can back up Giles/Green and be a legit option with the bat, then I am all for this move…I guess that would mean I would need to buy into Geoff Blum.
“Come on Blummer, just once this season” says the grizzled veteran pitcher…does not instill much confidence.
I am usually not one to side with players or unions, but what is the use of Arbitration if the team can just cut you if they lose? Does not seem to be good faith.
March 29, 2007 at 6:24 am
He can’t field.
We don’t have a DH in the NL.
We gave his job to Marcus Giles.
Seems like a winnable case to me.
March 29, 2007 at 2:17 pm
He was offered arbitration when the thought was that he would start at second base. He lost that job to Giles and doesn’t fit as an option off the bench. Why not cut him? Cutting a guy who no longer deserves a spot on the club doesn’t strike me as going against the spirit of anything other than perhaps charity.