Also, belated welcome to all the folks at Gaslamp Ball who came over and hung with us while GLB was unavailable. Good to see so many familiar names as I browsed through the IGD.
The national story will be that Trevor Hoffman blew a save. Hooray for the media. Here are some other stories that won’t get as much play:
- Brian Giles struck out chasing ball four in the third. Paul McAnulty followed with a walk that would have loaded the bases. Adrian Gonzalez then grounded into a double play that ended the inning.
- With runners at the corners and one out in the fifth, Gonzalez killed another rally with an inning-ending double play.
- Earlier, Josh Bard led off the same inning with a single to left that anyone but he or Gonzalez would have turned into an easy double (which of these guys, incidentally, gets the nickname “Piano Man”?). Bard was thrown out. The Padres proceeded to hit three straight singles and only scored one run. In the third and the fifth, San Diego had golden opportunities to put the proverbial screws to Matt Cain and it just never happened.
- Scott Hairston flirted with a homer in the bottom of the eighth. Next inning, Jim Edmonds flirted with one of his own that would have won the game.
The main problem with Hoffman isn’t that he’s blown a couple of saves, it’s that whoever is closing games for the Padres needs to be absolutely perfect. That’s a lot to ask of anyone, let alone a guy who clearly is in the decline phase of his career.
So, now we’re left with questions. Some of these I find more compelling than others:
- Is it time to replace Hoffman as closer?
Boring question, in my mind, because the answer is “yes” or “no”; at this point, it’s a political debate between those who would cite a few weeks worth of data and those who would counter with several years worth of data. It’s a worthy discussion, just not one that interests me much at this stage. - If it’s time to make a move, then who takes over for Hoffman?
This is a slightly better question, but it’s still not real interesting. The only viable in-house option is Heath Bell, and right now he’s looking more like Scott Linebrink version 2006 than Linebrink version 2005. If Bell can’t answer the, um, bell, then you have to start looking outside the organization. And if this team is as bad as people keep telling me it is, then how much should the front office give up to get someone who can finish games? I hear, based on 22 games, that the Padres are a second-division club. Well, who cares who the closer is for second-division clubs? I don’t agree with this assessment of the Padres, but really, if they suck as bad as folks seem to think, then stick Wil Ledezma out there. At least he’ll be entertaining. People complain that this team is boring. I guarantee you, Ledezma in the ninth would liven things up a bit. (This line of thinking was inspired by reader Lance, who somewhat jokingly suggested Glendon Rusch. Or was it a monkey on roller skates?) - If Hoffman can’t close, what can he do?
Okay, here’s the fun one. If Hoffman can’t close, he’s essentially useless. The Padres employed three key setup men in 2007: Bell, Cla Meredith, and Doug Brocail. The least-used of those, Brocail, worked 76 2/3 innings. The last time Hoffman worked that many innings, Bill Clinton was just starting his second term as 42nd president of the United States. So Hoffman isn’t a setup man. Long relief? The word “long” implies an ability to pitch more than one inning at a time. So much for that. Mopup? Beyond the issue of whether it’s reasonable to pay a guy top dollar to work primarily in meaningless situations, there’s the matter of Hoffman’s history with the club and community. I don’t know that there’s a way to turn him into a mopup man without causing — well, let’s just say that if you think the Padres have some PR issues now, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. And this leads us to the only viable alternative: Force Hoffman to retire and pay him like he’s still closing. It’s not the best use of a mid-market team’s money, but at the very least, nobody will accuse the Padres of being cheap.
I’m still not prepared to give up on Hoffman or this team, although I seem to be in a dwindling minority these days. The Padres are 9-13, which is one game better than they were at the same point in 2006, when they won 88 games.
I maintain that we are witnessing an 85-win team that currently is playing like crap. You will tell me I’m wrong, and I look forward to hearing the basis for your conclusion.
I agree whole-heartedly that this team doesn’t suck as bad as they’re currently suggesting. I also am not ready to write Trevor off, but I’m also not sure how much more I want to see before I can write him off (of course, ideally, Trevor would just dominate from here on out).
I think it’s time for Wally to earn his paycheck and start getting into some guys’ heads about their approach. Some of our guys are giving up outs way too easily, and Khalil needs to completely rethink his approach at the plate (and his batting stance).
I hope like hell this team gets it together. It’s not a whole lot of fun to watch them right now.
I stand by my comment last night that Trev is done. Having said this, I don’t want to pull him just yet. Pull him for who? I still think there are some saves left in his arm. The team is playing horrible right now and so is Hoffy. I think we just got to stick with what we have for the rest of the season and see what happens. It’s not like we’re going to take Iguchi out and Robinson Cano will magically appear. There’s not much we can do at this point. Call up some of the prospects and by the end of the year we’ll have an honest picture of the 2008 San Diego Padres.
I say give this core another 20 games, if they’re winning keep ‘em together, if not white flag it and get some youth up here.
Geoff…I am awith you thining that this is a 85ish win team.
We will be fine, but I can’t see us catching AZ. Beating the Dodgers for 2nd place would warm my heart though and I think that is doable!
Ha Ledezma is 2nd in the Pen with IP (Bell is #1), is tied for first in strikeouts (with
and leads the team in ERA I say he is our best option!
Hoffman will be the Padres closer this year unless one of two things happen 1. His arm falls off or 2. Boch talks Sabean in to trading for him and to be honest I don’t see either of these happening.
To be honest Hoffman is the least of my concerns this year. I guess I have always thought of this year as a transition year and never expected the padres to do better than third in the NL west. What really scares me is Bell’s struggles, if Bell continues to struggle that will put the padres in a real pickle next year when it comes to the closers spot. They are not going to go out and pay big money or trade a high prospect for a closer so they will have to find one off of the scrap heap and I know KT has the magic touch when it comes the BP but he has had the luxury of not having to find a ninth inning guy throughout his whole career (except 2003 but we all knew that was a short term thing).
The other thing that scares me is that the Padres are going to scrap their entire OF nest year and as of now there are not viable everyday players within the system that look like they will be ready for 09. Headley might be the only one at the moment but he’s a rookie who has been playing LF for a matter of months at this point.
I guess I’ve always thought that 08 was not going to be great but it also looks like the Pads are not in a good spot for 09 which scares me.
Rant over
Leave Hoffy be for a while longer. He will get it back, maybe. But the way the season is going, it won’t matter. At the end of the year, he moves to bullpen coach.
Right now it seems KT has built an offense exactly the opposite of what Petco requires. We need speed, but we have piano-man, need gap hitters, but have flyball hitters who ground out, guys who hit for avg, but no has been seen 300 in years.
Geoff, you say you still believe in the team, meaning you think they will make it to your predicted wins? Or you think that will make the playoffs?
Me, I have reverted to the old days of mustard and brown unis and being the doormats of the NL. IOWs, no expectations whatsoever. There is clarity in that.
#1@Phantom: at some point (don’t know if its after the third hitting coach in 3 years) you have to start looking for other ways to fix the offensive problem, firing the hitting coach mid season does now seem to be working.
#6@Steve C: I’m not advocating firing Wally. I think he needs to sit down with each of our players and begin a conversation with the line, “And now let me show you why we’ve only won 9 games.”
We seem to be chasing terrible pitches and hitting too many weak balls. The balls that we do hit sharply are right at someone. Our BABIP probably sucks horribly right now.
#5@PM: I see an 85-win team. In this division that’s probably not enough to make the playoffs. I see us in the race but falling just short.
5: I don’t want to agree with the likes of a Kentera, but it would be great to have some speed. Not .320 OBP speed guys, but players who can reliably score from second on a single; Of course, a healthy, effective team of Cameron and Bradley would have been nice.
The team just needs better batsmen. I think a lot of people assumed Padre hitters would see their HR totals drop a bunch but they’d rack up a bunch of doubles instead. Well, if Petco suppresses doubles, too, who are these magical uber-gap hitters and where can we find them?
#7@Phantom: Bleh sorry I didn’t mean to suggest that you were trying to advocate the firing Wally, it was more of that I think he will get the Axe if things don’t turn around and turn around quickly. It just kind of sucks that out hitting coaches get the Axe when they are not given much to work with in both players and park while our pitching coach is put on a pedestal when he is given one of the best pitchers parks in the league and one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. I’m not saying that I don’t think Balsley is a great coach im just saying that he is in a great situation and you have to apply the same logic to your hitting coach.
#10@Steve C: You make a great point.
#9@Stephen: I really do think a Reggie Willits would make a ton of sense as our CF.
Gees, Petco surpresses doubles too. Didn’t know that. Place is starting to be the mistake by the lake, er bay.
Tough stat in the UT today. “In their last two home games, they’ve played more than 10 hours and scored three runs in 35 innings.”
I agree with above, Hoffy doesn’t bother me as much as not hitting, a problem the Padres have had for years now.
But its only April.
#9@Stephen: Khalil and Adrian both finished top 10 in the NL in doubles last year, so we can find them right there. What we really need is for our existing batsmen to perform in a manner more consistent with their abilities.
Geoff, I agree with you completely.
This team could potentially win somewhere in the 88-90 range. I don’t know many people who will argue that the team is better then they are playing. And as you pointed out, in 2006 April went much in this same way and that turned out just fine. Some statistical oddities:
Greene – 28 HR a year ago, 0 so far. (I might note as a point of reference, until yesterday Prince Fielder had only 1 HR).
Bullpen ERA over 5 – this reminds me much of the blip they hit after the all-star game last year. Also, these numbers are somewhat watered down with the extended work of Rusch and Ledezema. Personally I think Bell will be fine and thought last night was encouraging.
Pitchers faced so far this season: Cain (2), Linececum (2), Webb, Penny (2), Oswalt (2). Luckily, most of the NL does not have starters of this caliber.
As for Hoffman, I think the issue is a location issue. I thought last nights pitch was a good pitch but when you have a low ball hitter 1-2, don’t throw the ball low. When he is locating, Hoffman is as good as he ever was. The “stuff” is still there. The confidence I wonder about. The thickest skinned closer can only handle so much.
Personally, I’m embarrassed by the way Padres fans are treating him. This guy is a HOF’er and beside Tony Gwynn, the most important player in franchise history. He has earned our respect. Booing him, telling him he sucks, that’s Bush League (or Red Sox Nation style, pick your poison). Am I nervous when he’s on the mound? Yeah, I am now. But I fully expect to be made a fool by Hoffman yet again.
#12@PM: See pp. 33-36 of the ’08 Annual.
12: Doubles suppression was my assumption; should have made that clear. A Bill James handbook should clear that right up.
13: Yes, that was in my mind when I was writing, but I was thinking specifically about Petco. I don’t know the splits off top of my head. If anyone’s stomach is really knotted up right now, I recommend having kids. It is quite the uber-cliche, but I’m glad to have the mellowed these last three years. Otherwise, I might have been too emotional about all of this.
15: Oops, egg on face. I’ll go back to work now.
#13@Geoff Young: How many years did we say that with Nevin and Klesko?
Geoff,
The conversation I had with my family leaving the ballpark last night echoed your thoughts exactly. No one thought Trevor blew the game. If you wanted to peg it on a single issue, everyone thought Bard being thrown out attempting to stretch his single was the problem. But the larger issue that I agree with you on is that the lack of hitting leaves no margin of error for either of these.
JJ
Hitting coach: Most players seem to be hard-wired by the time they reach the majors, unless they get there really young. I don’t expect General George Patton would have much effect on these guys.
I don’t doubt that they can bounce back some, but let’s look at 2006 in more detail. They got several performances that were flat-out incredible and unlikely to be repeated. Meredith gave us 50 innings of 380 ERA+ pitching. Bard gave us 231 at-bats of 149 OPS+. The entire starting outfield was over 100, with Cameron providing super defense and a 121 mark. The reanimated corpse of Vinny Castilla did steal some of our offensive life essence, but it looks like there’s much less chance of a big-time turnaround. Hopefully we won’t continue to kick games away, but even 85 wins now seems like a longshot.
It’s also reasonable to ask if management’s goals should be building an 85-88 win team.
The drop on Trevor’s pitch to Molina wasn’t that bad, but if it’s further outside that’s a harmless fly ball.
#18@Steve C: I guess thats not fair to say about Klesko because he was always an above average hitter whn he was with the Pads.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/k/kleskry01.shtml
I was not watching the game last night … listened to a couple of late innings on the radio (some KNBR, some XX) … followed the last couple of innings on Yahoo …
I’m interested to get an explanation of the “intentional walk” which the Yahoo box score says was issued to Molina ahead of Rowand, who then got a hit to drive the 2nd run in the top of the 13th. It seems like such an obvious bad move to me … so if it can be explained to me, then I think I’ll be a more informed fan going forward.
A sample of the conversation at SignOn:
Does your team’s owner lied through his teeth after he promised to put a winning team on the field? After we gave him a brand spanking new ballpark and this is what we get in return? It is not the first time that he lies to the fans. … I guess making $3 – 4 millions a year is not motivating enough for these guys to play baseball. How many people do you know that makes $3 – 4 millions a year playing sport for a living? I would kill to be a bench warmer for $100,000/yr salary.
#23@Stephen: I might point out that KT has put a winning team on the field every year that Petco has been open. He also brought two playoff appearances to Petco. Further, being below .500 in April does not translate into a losing season. There’s no way you can tell me that the players on the field don’t want to win.
It seems to me the biggest issue is the poor base-running. Live within yourself, the Padres know they are not a big bopping team, so manufacture some runs. But when you run out of innings (Bard last night, PMac on Thursday, etc.) you kill any momentum that was building. I would venture a guess and say that the poor base-running is a byproduct of the team “pushing” to hard to get out of their slump.
My preseason “guess” was Padres at around 90 wins. Way too early to change that to “they stink”. Give it another 20-30 games to start to form a conclusion.
Close loses can translate into close wins with a bit of luck.
#24@GTH:
Which is why I posted that. I’m not the author.
#10@Steve C: I think the Pads once had a coach once say that you can’t with the Kentucky Derby with a donkey.
#10@Steve C: I put Balsley up on a pedestal when he coaxed Darrell May into beating Johan Santana.
If Hoffy goes in tonight, is there going to be any of us expecting him to convert the save with no issue? I don’t wanna see him blow another one in the ninth, but I don’t wanna see him anywhere else.
#23@Stephen: Knuckle-dragging mouth-breathing half-wits, the lot of ‘em. They sound like Pirates and Reds fans.
#28@Axion Even a blink Squirrel finds an acorn every now and again…
#29@Steve C: *blind Squirrel
#26@Stephen: Didn’t mean to imply that you were the author, just responding to the comment posted by the “knuckle-dragging mouth-breathing half-wits” (well said #28).
Also, I’m in a bitter mood after this past week, excuse my rants. I have to do my controlled breathing now: It’s Only April, It’s Only April, It’s Only April.
New article on Hoffy over at ESPN.com
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3363664
Considering retirement after this season? That is the question they are asking.
BASEBALL. Yea.It’s a short ride from Mudville to Margaritaville. Glad we didn’t stay at the later all season.
#343@Pat: Trying to carry forward a thread from last night’s IGD …
Pat (et al), can you tell me what your criteria is for Trevor being “done� I’m guessing we’re not far apart in our opinions. He’s gonna be “done†sometime, isn’t he? Or do you think he’s good for repeating 2007 for 10 more years and then he just quits while he’s still on top? I know you don’t … and sorry for getting a bit flip.
I think my point can be expanded based on what you are saying … he wasn’t “done†last year … he was able to go out and have 11 good outings in a row … but then you know what happened? He had surgery on his arm! And so far this year, he’s been scored upon in 4 out of 8 outings … he’s looked bad (to me) … he walked Jose Cruz Jr when he was 1 out away from a save. No one of these facts is very significant … the anecdotal observations are probably the most significant … it’s not a decision based on small sample size … it’s what my eyes and gut are telling me … it’s an opinion, not a fact …
And if he does again what he did from Aug 25 to Sep 28 last season, then I’ll say I was wrong / premature … and either way, I’ll be a fan of Trevor … a fan of the Padres … rooting for them in 2008 … looking forward to the prospects developing in the minors so that they will be better in 2009 and beyond … throwing out my thoughts and ideas about what’s wrong today and what can be changed / improved for the future …
The sky didn’t fall in 1969-1974 … nor in 1993 … nor is it falling today … it’s baseball … it’s just that the sun is not shining … today … play ball!
I thought I read Shakespeare thrown out trying to stretch a double into a double.
Piano Man, indeed.
How the Padres did not score more than 1 run last night in the 13th with bases loaded no out is the trouble with the hitters right now.
Geoff, you didn’t mention anything about Maddux great start last night.
#18@Steve C: As you note in #21, when healthy, Klesko and Nevin weren’t the problem. Their contracts created other problems, but their bats typically did not.
#35@Didi: Yeah, I almost threw something in about Maddux but decided to leave him out altogether rather than give him only a passing nod. He threw a great game and deserved some runs.
#36@Geoff Young:yeah memory distorts the truth…
But I guess thats why we have baseball-Refference
Agree with 19. No offense puts too much pressure on pitching and leaves no margin for errors. Plus hitters are on edge because its petco and they know they have to muscle pitches to get them to go.
That is why ultimately, I blame KT for not building the right offense for success at Petco. Need more Ichitro-like hitters. Need more speed.
Edmunds gonna curse the day he answered KT’s phone call. A stellar career is going to die in the thick ocean air of Petco.
Hoffmans woes extend beyond “a few weeks worth of data”.
2007 1st Half: 191ERA, 162BA
2007 2ndHalf: 444ERA, 306BA
But I agree that it is not the biggest issue right now.
The high strikeout/low walk/low OBP numbers is killing the run production.
The problem with this offense currently is not bad players, but that lots of players are having bad stretches. Greene, Kouzmanoff, Iguchi, and Bard all have established levels of performance way above where they’re performing at now. Even Edmonds and Hairston can be expected to be somewhat better, even if they’re not good enough players to be full time starters. The offense is not going to be the worst in the league this year.
#38@PM: Problem is, Ichiro-like hitters don’t really exist. There’s Ichiro and then there’s everyone else. He is pretty unique.
41: That is why I fully support cloning for sports entertainment purposes:)
#2@Oside Jon: I agree with you. DO with what we got right now, let them play the month of May and see if we still have that May magic. If we are still losing at the end of May, lets call up our kids and get their feet wet and ready for 2009.
Padres are not doomed, just slumping in April…though obviously not the best in the division anymore.
Trevor is not done, just slumping in April…though obviously not the best in the business anymore.
We are justified in bemoaning both of the above, but it won’t be this bad all year.
Haven’t really read everything that has been written today, but to think they are going to remove Hoffman as closer as long as he wears the jersey is silly….plus closer is a heck of a lot easier then the situations we regularly throw Meredith and Bell into.
This team is probably lucky to have the wins that it does, how many guys do they have hitting literally .200-5?
Mark
#45@Mark Ase:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/2008.shtml
Yikes.
Padres leaders in OPS+ (which is adjusted for Park Effects, 100 is baseline):
A. Gonzalez- 139
McAnulty- 120
Giles- 119
After that nobody is even close to average:
Kouzmanoff- 83
Hairston- 71
Bard- 68
Edmonds- 52
Iguichi- 51
Greene- 48
The offense will bounce back. So far we have 4 guys currently lower than Marcus Giles was last season (68). Every member on this list posted 100 OPS+ or better last year except for Edmonds and Iguichi. (and of course PMac).
For me, the bullpen issues are more worrysome.
And Jack Cassel got a win today. Nice to have run support.
Also, If I had to give one reason why I think the Padres and Dodgers are struggling so bad, I think it’s because of that stupid trip to China. Do it at the end of the season, not when you are trying to prepare yourself for a 162 game season.
As a collegiate runner, I spent 2 weeks in China with my team last summer, and it took most of us over a month to get back into normal routine. Going to China seriously hindered our training, our sleep schedules, and eating habits.
Boston struggled a little out of the gates as well, going 5-6 after their trip to Japan. But I still think Japan is better because you can drink the water, breathe the air, and at least there is actually a market for baseball in Japan. The Chinese people were so confused they clapped loudly after groundballs to first.
#49@Brett: That is a great point. I had forgotten about that trip.
There was a manager this year — I forgot who — who was talking about one of the Japan trips from a few years ago. He said it took them more than a month to get over it.
There is really no reason for those trips, other than “spreading the gospel.” But it comes at the detriment of Major League Baseball’s regular season.