Padres (9-12) @ Giants (8-13)
Greg Maddux vs Matt Cain
7:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 189
MLB, B-R
In baseball, as in life, it’s wise to abandon your long-term plans at the first sign of trouble. Good luck with that.
Maddux goes for career win #350.
Copyright © 1997 - 2010 Geoffrey N. Young
Ducksnorts is not affiliated with the San Diego Padres, Major League Baseball, or pretty much anything else
Ducksnorts is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
346 Comments
well, im hoping we can win tonight.
it’d be a good time to start doing that.
This sounds really lame but we need a win tonight. I know that’s a common phrase but I think our guys need it for their confidence. Everyone knows this is an average team that I hope exceeds it’s capabilities. Right now they are underachieving and if the losing continues it then we just expect it. God, we have become so accustomed to winning of late around here that this really sucks!!!!!!! Oh well, just baseball.
Now that the Morrissey song is over I’m feeling little more positive. Let’s kick some a#% tonight!!!
Not sure if this was mentioned but the Padres claimed Pitcher Josh Banks off of waivers from the Blue Jays.
I hope they show some life on this home stand. I am going tomorrow and Saturday.
Gaslamp Ball’s down for a few hours it seems, so I’m gonna hang out here.
If we win tonight, that’s great. If we lose a few more before May, it’ll shake the dead weight off of the bandwagon and make a late season miracle comeback that much more sweet for having weathered the suck storm.
3-5-0! Tonight’s the night (please oh please)!
Oh yeah, we’re battling for last place tonight — right? Or is that the Dodgers? The west looks pretty crappy this year so far “standings wise”. Only one team excelling. It’s a long season but we’re one day closer to elimination.
Go mad dog.
Clay had his first rehab outing.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080423&content_id=2575753&vkey=news_sd&fext=.jsp&c_id=sd
it pains me to say so, but tonight I’m a Dogs fan. Go Blue.
#10@Jefe: What pains me is that we are only one game better than the Giants right now.
I’m getting no sound on channel 704HD right now. What the???
Stupid SB nation. Drama and WG are heading over this way too I hear.
What happened to Iguchi? Huh? Dex, my z button isnt’ working.
#12@Oside Jon: Jon, mine is working just fine. Are you using a separate sound system?
Did NOG have plastic surgery? Is Tadahito tied up in a basement somewhere?
There have been far too many times this season when I’ve looked at the scoreboard and seen ONE hit for the Padres. Far too many.
Josh Bard. 5 CS this year. Nice. Among league leaders.
#14@sdsuaztec4: Do you have access to get a T. Gywnn autograph?
#19@Turbine Dude: Pretty sure there is a restraining order issue there…kind of a sensitive subject for ‘Tec.
Maddux workin’ a walk. Sweet. Please blow up now Cain.
Tonight’s really not my night for baseball. MLB.tv seems to a no show for me as well.
#22@Dex: Mine is spotty tonight as well. But it’s on.
#20@Drama: Well, thought I’d ask. Wife and I bought a brick for Tony’s statue and some day I’d like to have him sign the back of the replica brick that they sent us.
Bud should send Maddux. Who would see that coming?
Way to swing at ball 4 old man.
#21@Drama: He was trying to blow up. Giles had other plans.
#24@Turbine Dude: That would be really nice to get that signed.
#19@Turbine Dude: Shouldn’t be to hard. Nobody really goes to the games, even though they are in first in the division and have probably the best pitcher in the NCAA (Strasburg). It’s open seating and you can sit next to the dugout and just ask he before or after the game, he just basically sits there the whole time.
Wow. Cain tries to walk three straight batters and we don’t get anything. Typical.
#15@Turbine Dude:
Rick….yes I’m using seperate sound sytem but I just changed channels and came back – now the sound works. Cool. Enough technical difficulties here all…..sorry. Giles down on strikes.
#29@sdsuaztec4: Thanks. I’ve never been to an SDSU game. But, it would be worth the outing to have Tony sign that for us. The picture next to my posts was taken at the statue.
#24@Turbine Dude: And I don’t have a restraining order. Drama thinks he is at GLB still. He keeps clicking the “z” button over and over again to no avail.
#32@Turbine Dude: They are pretty exciting. Strasburg fired a 23 K Complete game 2 hit shutout last week, setting conference and school records for Ks.
#31@Oside Jon: Jon that happens once in awhile to me also. Doesn’t matter what channel. But the first thing I always check is to see if my wife turned off the Bose system (LOL).
Woah. Brian did not play that very well.
#36@Drama: Time to retire for Briles. Rowand seems to have the mad dog’s number.
#37@sdsuaztec4: He’s the only one. As long as he keeps stranding him.
#34@sdsuaztec4: Are you playing for SDSU?
Drama, where is your boyfriend? Thinking up witty retorts?
#39@Turbine Dude: No, I graduated last year. I play in SDABL though. (San Diego Adult Basebal League)
#41@sdsuaztec4: Right on. Do you know Doug Buetell?
#40@sdsuaztec4: Penny?
#42@Turbine Dude: Can’t say that I do.
Khalil just gets worse and worse. Between him and Tadahito….ugh.
Greene is the worst hitter in baseball. I swear he tries to swing the bat when the pitcher throws to first. I’d rather watch the Beavers and Missions than this team.
Can we please score?
#44@sdsuaztec4: Just wondering. He pitches for a SDABL team (not sure which one). I work with him at Solar Turbines.
I love when they show old Mud footage. Great stuff.
Alright Bardo!
Nice try.
Maddux is amazing. 5 innings, 4 hits, 4 K’s, 53 pitches.
#52@Drama: The asterisk to that is, of course, the Giants are amazingly bad.
Damn. If it wasn’t for Bard pulling a P-Keg, it would be 2-0 now.
Thank you Mr. Giles.
#53@Ben B.: But I’m intentionally ignoring that fact because we’re only a game better in the standings.
#53@Ben B.: Um, Easy. Padres 9-12, Giants 8-13
#56@Drama: #57@sdsuaztec4: I was referring to their offense there. So no asterisk needed for Maddux’s offensive exploits, because Cain is a good pitcher.
Man, I hope sdsuaztec4 didn’t embarrass himself over here by telling everyone Giles should retire…
#58@Ben B.: Agreed. He’s a whiny, little brat….but the kid can pitch.
oh well, one run is better than none
At least we are on the board first. Sheesh.
Kills me when we get one run out of an inning like that. But at this point, I guess we should just be thrilled we got a run on the board.
#60@Drama: You see he scratched out the SD logo on the mound again?
#34@sdsuaztec4: Do they sell beer at the games?
#64@sdsuaztec4: He’s such a prick. Why isn’t Hairy starting tonight just to piss Cain off?
There was some mention in last night’s IGD of the perception of Peavy. Here is one of my favorite articles:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/06/30/AR2007063000730_pf.html
A reason why is because I’m from North Carolina. Peavy, as you know, is from Alabama.
A little awkward there bringing up Jack Clark with TG in the booth.
#65@Turbine Dude: Absolutely
#68@Winfields Ghost: I was just gonna say that. “So, T…what do think of Jack Clark in that uni?”
“He looks like an idiot.”
“OK. Next pitch from Maddux…”
Jack Clark, clubhouse cancer. In the booth next: Garry Templeton.
GLB IS BACK! GLB IS BACK! Sorry Geoff.
Edmunds is looking up at mendoza now.
#72@sdsuaztec4: Ummm…I don’t think so.
#73@Field39: Ugh
#73@Field39: I hope Mendoza doesn’t drop anything…Edmonds will never catch it.
#74@Drama: Working for me.
Nice out for Mad Dog there!
#76@Drama: It’s that stellar defense that is keeping him in that lineup.
Anyone else nervous about the bullpen f-ing this up for Mad Dog?
#77@sdsuaztec4: Looks like we are going to take in the Sunday game against TCU. Young man, may I ask what your name is?
#81@Turbine Dude: I need an adult! I need an adult!
Maddux is done?
75 pitches.
#82@sdsuaztec4:
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Get your fat ass back here paper boy!
#80@KRS1: I don’t want to be…but yes.
#80@KRS1: Not at all, I have allready accepted it as inevitable.
I don’t get why Maddux was taken out. For milestone wins, I like to see complete games. I guess Black and Maddux know more than me though.
#82@sdsuaztec4: LOL. My young adult friend, may I ask what your name is. When I get my brick signed, I want to tell Tony who gave me the info. BTW, I have a pretty 21 yr. old daughter that is looking for a boyfriend.
#80@KRS1: #86@Winfields Ghost: Kinda hard not to be a little nervous at this point..
#87@Field39:
Our only saving grace is that we are playing the Giants. If they had anyone that could actually hit I’d probably be on pins and needles.
Maddux got 14 ground outs. The only outs he got in the air were pop-ups to Greene. Very impressive. Of course, it is the Giants.
#90@Mark O: I hate our new reality.
#89@Turbine Dude: Well he doesn’t know me anyway, so it wouldn’t matter. And I usually get in trouble over at GLB when I talk about pretty 21 year old women. But I guess, when in Rome…
Kouz should have had that.
#93@Winfields Ghost: Yep…last season was a lot more fun, at least so far.
#94@sdsuaztec4: go with it
#94@sdsuaztec4: OK, never mind.
#91@KRS1: Rowand, Lewis and Bowker are all hitting quite well so far this young season.
Did you guys just hear what Matty said? Oakland claimed Rajai Davis. I KNEW that was a good pick-up. Dammit.
Khalil blew that play.
He was safe (unfortunately).
Nice, Khalil. Don’t screw us defensively as well. Please?
#101@Richard Wade: In his defense, it looked like he kept the tag on long enough that he should have gotten the call.
#101@Richard Wade: He’s not really good for anything.
Big K
Bell got a couple calls there.
Ok, lets score some runs so Hoffman can stay on the bench.
HEAT!!!! Nice.
#89@Turbine Dude: Can I get a myspace?
Rockies Lost in 10. Dodgers beating the D-Bags 6-1 in the Top 6.
#107@Richard Wade: And by a couple I mean like five.
#110@sdsuaztec4: Only if I can get a free lunch.
#113@TheGrandHatching: On. The. Floor. PURE GOLD.
#113@TheGrandHatching: Hey I wasn’t the instigator in this instance. I was offered. Shhhh.
#114@Drama: Lol. Nobody knows what the hell we are talking about.
Winn Molina and Rowand for Hoffman? Great.
#113@TheGrandHatching: DYING
just tuning in…can anyone tell me how Bell looked tonight?
Only the new style sbnation sites appear to be down.
#120@Richard Wade: Jonny Dub spilled his Big Gulp all over the server, I’m sure.
Come on, Trevor.
Trevor Time.
I feel like we should all gather hands and pray.
Come on, Hoffy. Get this done for Mad Dog.
That third pitch looked to be in exactly the same spot as the first pitch. What gives?
Can of corn. Death.
#110@sdsuaztec4: #110@sdsuaztec4: She’s not home right now and I don’t know her myspace thing. Check back with me tommorow or e-mail me at rickschroder@cox.net and I’ll have her get in contact.
that’s one. come on. Do it for the Mad Dog.
#119@Eric: About the same, only because it was the Giants, they couldn’t hit him.
#119@Eric: #130@Ben B.: Oh, also, he was throwing his breaking ball a lot more. It looked so-so.
#128@Turbine Dude: Ok, sounds good. Will do.
#119@Eric: He did K two.
This is becoming a trend.
Fuck.
Molina. With an INJURED hand. WTF?????
Again, our bullpen is our bane.
There goes that…
Well. Awesome.
Did that really just happen?
So how much longer are we going to keep defending Trevor?
There goes 350. I told you Hoffman sucks. RETIRE. NOW. He looks like he is going to cry.
Ok, Geoff and other Trevor appologists… fire up the excuses. I know you have them.
At least Pence doesn’t also play for the Giants.
#124@TheGrandHatching: “gather together” or “grab hands”. either one. doesn’t matter now.
#140@KRS1: The season is toast anyway. Trevor’s relataive performance is meaningless.
#142@Richard D.: I’ve been getting slack at GLB all offseason and all season for my calling for his retirement. Doesn’t he have more BS now than Saves?
Trevor is DONE
#142@Richard D.: Every pitcher in major league history has given up a home run.
Mad Dog is so pissing on Hoffman in the showers after the game!
sdsuaztec4…. this is only his second blown save… to go with two losses and an ERA around 9.00.
But I’ve been saying since early September of ‘07 that when it goes, as a closer, it goes FAST…. and that it’s better to cut ties a year too early than a year too late.
So, in short.. I couldn’t agree with you more.
But the Trevor cult members will find excuses, they always do.
Case in point: post 148
Love ya Trev. You are going to the Hall. Time to hang it up. No offense Dsnorters. It’s over. I’ve held off long enough.
#142@Richard D.: As a Hoffman apologists, any apology on behalf of this latest effort will have to wait if it is to come at all.
Why is Hoffman done? What is different this year than last year about his stuff, his control, his whatever that makes him done this year when he succeeded last year? You can’t use results to tell me his done, because everyone ever has struggled for an 8 inning stretch. Manny Corpas has an ERA over 7; why is Trevor done and he’s not?
Horrible. Tonight read like a script for #350. 7 innings, 4 hits, 5 K’s, no runs, no walks, 75 pitches. VINTAGE Maddux.
And then Trevor dropped a deuce in his pants. Incredibly disappointing on a number of levels.
We need some steroids, stat.
Edmonds came awfully close on that one.
Please not another 20 inning game, that ruins them for a week.
Who wants to bet Khalil strikes out on a slider down and out?
Trev was lousy in April in ‘05 and ‘07…I thought there was a trend of him sucking in April but for his career he’s a low 3’s ERA, so that’s unfounded. I keep telling myself it’s still early, we have to give him a chance to work through it…but if it’s still this bad at the end of May, I will join the masses in saying that he is done. There are indicators, but I’m not completely sold yet; the problems he’s having are not velocity or movement related, they are location problems for the most part. These are seemingly more fixable than suddenly losing 5 MPH…
#159@KRS1:
Pop up…
Damn!!!
Touche Mr. Greene… Touche!
#154@Ben B.: So, your solution is to keep running him out there, and get his brains beat in?
He’s appeared in 8 games this year… he’s surrendered runs in 4 of them, and that doesn’t count the game against the Rockies, where they hit two rockets to the wall. He’s not a 31 year old, who will “come around”. He’s a 40 year old who’s margin for error is moving into negative territory.
It’s not just tonight, it’s the cumulative results. But, why am I wasting my keystrokes? For some fans, Trevor can do no wrong.
Hoffman could be done. But not because of the evidence we have seen so far.
Hoffman apologist,
Kevin
A smart man once said about Petco Park: “It’s baseball-proof.”
#158@Field39: My concern is that these extra inning games are ruining them for the year.
Edmonds – .190
Hairy – .194
Tadahito – .214
Khalil – .217
I’m not a bandwagon type person. Hell, I supported the Chargers to the end when they went 1-15 that forgettable year. However.com, I was thinking it was Trevor’s time to hang it up gracefully about mid-season last year.
#155@Drama: I think I accurately predicted this result in the SLPiH today, unfortunately.
And WTF is wrong with GLB?
#154@Ben B.: First of all, you can’t compare Corpas and Hoffman. Second of all, His WHIP is almost 2, he has 5.5 BB/9, Opponents are hitting .375, and you guys need to come to grips with this. I think it is the first stage of grief, Denial.
#154@Ben B.: I agree, he looked pretty sharp and Molina clearly got a lucky swing. He has definitely looked horrible at times, but this has been true for many years but always ended up with solid seasons overall. He is definitely in decline but it is very gradual, and tonight is not evidence of him being suddenly “done”.
#162@Richard D.: It is legitimately a sample size issue.
#163@Kevin: Well put.
163: Of course not, he’s got a 9+ K rate.
#168@Phantom: Maintenance. Back up tomorrow morning.
#168@Phantom: Dear Phantom, WTF is wrong with Khalil? Your Friend, ‘tec the tank.
#165@TheGrandHatching: I hate to say it, but I would rather seem them go straight to Rusch and end it quick.
After a career of being the best one-inning closer ever (better than Rivera), he has had a terrible 7.2-inning stretch. So no, I don’t think it’s over.
#175@sdsuaztec4: No idea. His lack of HR is beyond worrisome. I like that his new stance theoretically allows him to go the other way, but it has sapped all of his power.
Nice job by Meredith.
#171@Richard Wade: So, you’re suggesting he just keeps pitching in the 9th inning with a 1-run-lead and see what happens?
If your argument is “the season is lost anyway so who cares” then I guess I can entertain that discussion.
But if your argument is “he’ll be fine” I have a hard time with that.
He’s old, his stuff has been in a steady state of decline for years. And to the sample size issue, I don’t want to have to compile his numbers since August of ‘07 again (I’ve already posted them here once) but I will if needs be.
#177@Kevin: 7.2 Inning stretch? Did you watch last season at all?
The Dodgers are doing us a favor tonite. We MUST win this game.
#176@Field39: lol
#178@Phantom: Seems like it has sapped his ability to do anyting correctly.
#162@Richard D.: What evidence do you have that this is anything other than a blip? Something scout-y like, say. Maybe a loss of velocity. Maybe he can’t throw his changeup anymore. Something other than the two swings of the bat that represent the two total extra base hits he’s given up this year. Because two swings of the bat don’t tell you anything about his true talent level.
From fangraphs, I can tell you his strikeout rate is actually up from last year. I can tell you his fastball is at the same mph it was last year, when he was quite successful. So far is main problem is that he’s walked too many guys, and I think a command problem is easily fixable.
As for Trevor doing no wrong, obviously this isn’t the case. I don’t want to disown everyone on the team every time they have a tough 10 inning stretch. Struggles happen to everyone.
#185@Ben B.: I think more than anything his control has been off. I don’t necessarily think Trevor is done, but this is definitely cause for concern.
#184@sdsuaztec4: Sadly, I agree with you.
#180@Richard D.: If your argument is “the season is lost anyway so who cares†then I guess I can entertain that discussion.
If that’s the case can we please cut Edmonds now and bring up Headley?
Cla…..no confidence in his eyes.
#185@Ben B.: Ok how about this, his 5.5 BB/9 is higher than ever in his career. He can’t find the location of his fastball or his change up.
Still alive. But, on life support.
Run Fairies didn’t hurt us that time. Although I’m pretty sure Greg Maddux is no fan of them.
166: It’s like they’re all racing to zero.
#180@Richard D.: I personally don’t think he’s our best reliever, so I wouldn’t keep running him out there in the highest leverage situations, but there is zero reliable evidence to suggest that he’s not still very good.
#169@sdsuaztec4: Why can’t I compare him to Corpas? They’re two closers who are struggling mightily. My point is if you’re going to go based on 8 innings and say Hoffman is done, then you have to make the same argument for Corpas. Since no one would conclude that, I’m saying that we’re not basing this on 8 innings, we’re basing it on Trevor’s stuff, and I’m making the argument that Trevor’s stuff hasn’t slipped from where it was when he was extremely successful.
Nice pitch by Walker, he just took Bardo up the ladder and got him to chase.
#187@Drama: And Antonelli
#185@Ben B.: First, his numbers have been dreaful since he blew a save in Cincinnatti last August… I’ll compile the numbers tonight. So, it’s not a blip on the radar.
And something scout-y for you… okay… He can’t hit his spots anymore, with either his fastball or his change-up, causing him to fall behind hitters and have to either 1)walk them or 2) throw pitches over the middle. Second: movement, there is none on his fastball. I could care less about velocity. But his fastball is straight as an arrow. And finally, for whatever reason, hitters are not biting at the low change-up anymore…. I’m not a scout so I don’t know the source of this, but I’d like to see how many swings and misses he’s enduced this year.
#194@Ben B.: “Trevor’s stuff hasn’t slipped from where it was when he was extremely successful.” I can’t even respond to that.
#169@sdsuaztec4: I’m not grieving
#198@sdsuaztec4: You just did respond to it.
#189@sdsuaztec4: 7.2 IP. If you can’t understand the concept of small sample size there is no point in discussing this with you.
#198@sdsuaztec4: Did you even watch him pitch last year?
I say we just sit back and enjoy the next 12 innings.
#203@Kevin: If they go 12 more innings, they may not win a game this home stand.
#197@Richard D.: Ok, I agree the control problems are legitimate. I think they’re fixable. But I disagree that the fastball is any straighter than it always has been. And I disagree that guys aren’t chasing the changeup in the dirt. His K rate is higher than it was last year, and some of that is guys chasing stuff in the dirt.
#198@sdsuaztec4: Why can’t you respond to it? If you go to fangraphs, his velocity is the same it’s been every year since 2005.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1035&position=P
#197@Richard D.: 67% of hoffy’s strikes this year are swinging, compared to 73% career. Courtesy B-R…
We’ve now scored two runs over the last 32 innings at home. That’s one run every 1.77 games.
#205@Ben B.: Don’t confuse the issue with facts, Ben. You’ll upset some of our more emotional commenters.
#201@Richard Wade: I see both sides of this coin. A small sample size is not indicitve of an overall. However, it’s a timing issue vs. affect in that small sample that cast the most doubt.
A good example: Adrian had a hot bat on this past road trip. Yet, the team still lost.
I cannot see how you can say Hoffman is done based on 7 innings of performance, by the results alone. Essentially, I agree with what Ben and others are saying. If a starting pitcher has a rough start, does anybody even question if he is done or not?
Of course, it’s different. Hoffman’s role is different and the innings are of extra importance. Hoffman’s also old … But can you really use a few innings to make a case about anything? Sure, you can go back to August … but I can go back to April-July of ‘07 or whatever.
I’ve heard the argument that he’s done at the first sign of struggle for the last few years. Heck, I’m sure people were questioning him in ‘01 after a rough season (by his standards). Anyway, I just don’t see how you can say he’s done, without providing some scouting-type data, like Ben says, with your opinion. Of course, anyone can say it, I guess, I just won’t believe it (which is probably irrelevant, anyway).
What’s fascinating to me is that the front office has to make decisions like this(take him out of the closer role or whatever) … if you stick with him long enough to make the performance mean much from a statistical perspective, he may have already cost you a playoff spot.
YES. ANOTHER CS FROM BARDO! TIED FOR THE LEAGUE LEAD!
Nice put out by Bardo there.
Don’t run on Bard. (He had a great jump, too.)
#208@Richard Wade: There’s no need for people to get snotty. The facts are he’s blown a lot of save opportunities in the past two years. I do not think he’s done. But I think something is wrong. To sit there and ignore the walks and the runs he’s giving up does nothing to advance the discussion.
Why can’t the Padres hit bloops that fall in like that?
If this gets to the 15th inning, I say we walk in a run and not swing. We can’t afford another long game at the beginning of an important stretch of games.
It’s hard to even take you guys defending him seriously. Ben B. do you watch the games? I love Trevor but he looks like crap out there and has been scary to watch for the past 2 seasons. With the stuff he takes the bump with these days he has no room for error and in his old age he is starting to look more than a little mistake prone. His location is off and I don’t see how it’s even arguable at this point. He has to locate to get away with the garbage his arm produces and he just isn’t consistently doing it enough to be in the closer role anymore. You can’t fool big league hitters with an 85 mph fastball unless you can locate it and he isn’t doing it. What more is there to say?
In the words of Neil Young… “is it better to burn our or fade away?”
#204@Field39: I think if it ends up going 12 innings Bardo will just start telling the hitters whats coming just so he doesnt kill his knees.
#210@MB: Exactly. We haven’t seen enough of him this year to judge. But based on what we have seen, it’s not looking great…a few interesting bits from B-R:
- Only 63% 1st pitch strikes this year, against 73% last year and 68% in ‘05 and ‘06.
- Hitters are making contact on 68% of swings, compared with 71% career and 77% last year.
- Hitters are definitely swinging less; they’ve offered at 45% of Hoffy pitches this year, compared to 49% last year and 48% career.
Too small to get much out of, but some food for thought at least…
#202@Richard Wade: Yes, Seven blown saves. Highest in career. 6.91 K/9 Lowest in Career (Besides 1993 w/ Marlins)
Hoffman had a 5.54 ERA in August 2007. So I guess he was done.
So was he back in September, when his ERA was 1.13?
#214@Phantom: He’s blown 17 going back to ‘05. That’s not a lot. Something is wrong. His control is a little off. That’s correctable. There’s absolutely no reason to think he’s done and people pointing to ridiculously small sample sizes are not “advancing the discussion.”
It would be great if we could stop looking so lost at the plate.
Let me add that, even if “scouting-data” supports Hoffman’s decline, I’m not sure it means much over 7.2 innings or whatever he says. Although I would guess it means a lot more than the results. The actual significance of it, though? I don’t know … something that would have to be studied, I suppose.
This isn’t to say Trevor is free from all criticism. But heck, if he had a 0.00 era over 7 innings (with better than usual stuff), I would not say that I expect that to continue!
That flyout is the only time in 4 years I’ve wished the fences were closer. If only because I have a midterm at 8AM and I need some sleep…
What is the date we can call up Headley and still have 6 more years of control over him? We should start a countdown to that date.
Poor Scotty.
#222@Richard Wade:
What’s the point of going back to 2005? I said the past two years. I’m not saying Trevor is done. I’m saying there’s a problem. To try to ignore that is ridiculous.
I love Trevor as much as the next person, but you don’t get to just attribute everything to sample size. Closerrs have to deal with incredibly small samples. It’s what we’re given to judge them.
The walks really bother me. Everyone keep raving that his velocity is up, but I could care less. It doesn’t matter how hard you throw if it’s not going where you want it to.
#226@Ben B.: Is it the 15th of May?
#224@MB: Yup. It’s fun to think about but doesn’t mean much until we see him more. Which as you said might kill us, but what else can you do given Trev’s history? In my eyes, he’s earned the chance to go out there and prove himself (or not).
Gonzo to third…come on now!!!
#217@KRS1: It’s hard to take the other side of the argument seriously when they often begin with the condescending “Do you watch the games?”
Oh dear God, c’mon Padres! Wild pitch, PLEASE!!!!
Nice hit Kouz but too bad there are 2 outs.
Maybe Callix can instigate one of those jumping mob scenes we have not seen in a while. C’mon rook!
Come on Cah Lix.
Awwwwwwwwww…not enough time to score on the WP. Dammit.
Okay, here are the numbers I was referring to….
Hoffman since August 5, 2007:
IP 26
ERA 6.58
record 2-3
saves 18
blown 7
save rate: 72%
So, this is a blip on the radar, guys?
#227@Phantom: The walks were still in the 2/9 range last season. That they’re above 5 right now is practically meaningless. I don’t think anyone is arguing that Trevor needs to maintain his control, but that’s not some sign that he’s “done.” Guys have periods where they don’t have their best control all the time.
You can’t say “we only have a small sample size, so we get to act like that’s enough.” That’s not how it works.
Crabbe, our best pinch runner, has to hit here because the only other man on the bench is Morton. If it weren’t extremely ridiculous to not have a backup catcher, Morton wouldn’t be in the big leagues right now. I don’t have the time or energy to do the research, but I’m willing to bet this is the poorestly (not a word, but let’s go with it) constructed roster in the majors.
#236@Richard Wade: I’m not saying it’s enough, but it can’t simply be dismissed either.
#234@Bryan S: Dang. That was a foul ball too. Imagine the backlash.
Good rip by the kid on 2-1…now straighten it out this time.
#228@Richard Wade: I found the Tim Sullivan article, and the date is …. April 29!
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/sullivan/20080326-9999-1s26sullivan.html
#229@Bryan S: Yeah, thats my take. But I can see the other side, too.
Maybe the best thing right now would be an actual scout, or a group of ‘em preferably (I wonder if the Pads have thought of this ; ) Their opinion, I would guess, is more valuable than the numbers (this season’s). But then there’s the question of whether it’s worth as much as the Pads’ projection system, based on numbers and scouting data (don’t know if they really have this), and how they weight those two things in their decision making process.
#237@Bryan: I agree.
#237@Bryan: Nope. The Brewers are going with a 14 man pitching staff currently. No way is this worse than that.
Weird, i can’t believe we didn’t score there. That never happens.
Our homerless streak at home has now reached 70 innings.
Earlier today I was listening to Sandy on the radio and he said something to the effect of “we don’t have anyone who is going to hit a lot of home runs, we don’t have a lot of team speed, and we don’t have anyone who is going to hit .320.” At this point I wanted to ask him how he thought we’d score runs.
I’m gonna hit the bathroom, then the hay. Nite guys. Hopefully I have something pleasant to wake up to.
#238@Phantom: I’m not trying to say there’s zero reason for concern. He needs to improve his control from what little we’ve seen this year, but I see no reason to believe he can’t do that. I guess what I’m saying is that there’s not enough data to support this “he’s done” non-sense.
#246@Bryan: That’s a great quote. wow. wow. This sucks.
#247@Phantom: Sleep in the bathroom.
Also, we need to stop playing “Hells Bells”… it looks stupid when you play that, have all the scoreboards light up, and then get rocked.
#241@Ben B.: Awesome.
#246@Bryan:
I did hear that interview and thought the exact same thing!
I was encouraged at him saying something about targeting and offensive player in the upcoming draft because we have not had much luck drafting pitchers recently.
#225@Bryan S: You could just get wasted now.
I was wasted last Thursday during the game. Started sobering up before it ended though.
dam…why is it only the games I commit to watching end up stealing my sleep?
#254@Kevin: Might be a better idea…
wow Khalil got on base! I think that raises his OBP to .100
Greene’s OBP just went up.
bunting? come on. this didn’t work last time, remember?
That AB = Abject Failure.
I feel like we’re going to have to resort to trying to tag up on every flyball soon.
Balk? What?
HBP + Balk. That’s the offense coming through.
Maybe the next pop-up will be caught with one foot in the dugout!
#265@MJS: LMAO!
If they could score without a hit it would make for a perfect evening.
They could score without a hit here, which could be their best hope.
#267@MJS: Well played.
2 out? Kiss the rally goodbye.
Could they score off Mark Grant?
#271@Field39: What about Bud Black?
Lewis Black?
#272@Bryan S:
What about Matty V.?
Our offense is terrible!
#272@Bryan S: Maybe Jack.
I live in a bubble. Did Glen Hoffman get fired?
Why do I make myself watch these games every night?
Goddamit! I didn’t need that at 10:30 PM!
See, there’s the Padres’ problem. They hit the ball too far to get those bloops falling in.
I should have gone to sleep. Or gotten wasted. Either one would have beat this.
Rusch = Human Surrender Cigar
CURSE WORDS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
#281@Eric: Word. I guess Buddy wants to go home. I’m going to sleep…this sucks. At least it’s only April…
Rusch should be referred to as the White Flag.
Aaron Rowand is a better hitter than Bengie Molina. Why would you walk Molina to get to Rowand?
And shockingly enough it didn’t work. Why was Huber playing so deep?
#276@Turbine Dude: We don’t have enough runners for Glenn to matter.
Of course, the ones we have are so important, I guess Glenn plays a high leverage position.
281: Yup when you opt for Rusch over Ledezma you are throwing in the towel.
That’s how you don’t hit the ball hard enough for a fielder to make a play!
hairston beat the throw anyway, his speed ain’t bad
That looked like ball 4 to Gonzo
Dammit, I can’t leave. Why do I bother? i know it will only end in pain…
Rally?
The bases are loaded. Wish I was.
Nice 1B by Kooz…I might have sent Hairston, though.
It’s all on Wilson now…
#292@Bryan S: Because one time it didn’t end in pain. And we’re all just hoping that one glorious day in the future, we will get to experience that again.
Morton? Crap. I smell DP.
Good call to hold everyone up.
I thought I heard Matty say something about Flannery making a call to a runner. My bad.
I’m not getting my hopes up. self-protection. I treat my Padres like i treat my girls.
Morton’s getting screwed with the balls and strikes again.
Hey, just got half of ‘em back…
Colt .45, works every time.
Nice job by the kid to get us closer…time for Khalil to break out now, please…
Oh shit. Here comes the DP (Greene).
Not useful, Khalil…
#299@Eric:
Classic!
NOW is when we need that ball in the corner…. c’mon Shakespeare!
Dude, this strike zone is all effed up.
Bases loaded for Iguchi.
oy our hopes lie with NOG errr Iguchi-san
Come on, Ta-Da-Hi-To!!!
Gooch’s OBP sucks right now.
to sleep, perchance, to dream
F***.
#312@Turbine Dude: Gooch sucks period right now.
For want of a hit, our game was lost.
Goodnight.
#311@Bryan S: An-ton-ell-iiii!!!
Iguchi is having Marcus Giles syndrome
I don’t care
Game should have been tied after 14. Umpire was terrible on Morton’s at-bat. He should have had an RBI walk.
Drive home safe.
Morton
Iguchi
Greene
Hairston
Edmonds
Crabbe
Clark
Thatcher
Hoffman
Bell
Rusch
None of the above are helping the ballclub right now.
Antonelli could be called up at any point now and would still be under team control for 6 years after this. But having more patience with Iguchi makes sense because he hasn’t shown as many signs of being done as Edmonds or of not being able to hit major league pitching like Hairston.
I feel like the Padres are my abusive boyfriends. Sometimes they treat me good and then sometimes they slap me around and tell me how worthless I am, then because I have such a low self esteem I keep running back to them with hopes they will change.
I can’t leave them, I love them!!!
Tonight sucked. I feel bad for Mad Dog.
#320@Kevin: Tied? That still puts us at 3-2. Greenes shallow fly wasnt enough to tag Gonzo from 3rd. You gotta go to the warning track for that.
#322@Ben B.: This season is toast. I don’t see the point in not getting Antonelli and Headley as much major league experience as possible, before 2009.
#322@Ben B.: Haitson hasnt done too good so far this year, but if your gonna be patient with Gooch you gotta be patient with him. Haitson has and can hit MLB pitching.
#321@Bryan: I think you could add Kouzmanoff and Bard to the list. Really the only decent offensive players so far have been McAnulty, Giles, and Gonzalez. If you wanted to, you could add Meredith and Cameron to the bullpen list.
When has Hairston hit MLB pitching? Talk about your small sample size, the end of last year was more than likely a fluke and Sledge was probably a better option than Hairston in LF. Seriously.
I don’t think Hoffman is “done”, I just don’t think he should be the closer anymore. Then again, who else do we have that can take that role? The whole bullpen has been bad.
#326@SDSUBaseball: I disagree. Hairston has a career 84 OPS+ in the majors. The only time he’s hit decently was his 95 PAs in the second half of last year. Iguchi has a career 96 OPS+ and plays second base, where the offensive requirements are much lower than in left.
#325@Field39: Well if we truly are building for the future we can’t call up Headley until April 29 in order to have control of his rights for the longest possible amount of time. I don’t think 22 games is enough time to declare this season toast, but I was probably a lot more optimistic at the outset of this season than most everyone else. If you thought this was an 82 win team at the start, then it is probably time to concede.
As painful as it was to watch Hoffman blow it again, the real problem on this team, other than a crappy bullpen so far, is that this team’s offense is terrible. Just Terrible. We are getting zero production from 5 of our lineup positions. I can’t even begin to describe what’s going on with Greene. I think I have seen him drive the ball once this year and that was misplayed by the fielder (his triple in SF). I don’t know if it IS his new stance, but when he does make contact, they are all weal efforts. It’s like Sean Burroughs has reincarnated his career in the body of Greene. While it may be too early to throw in the towel, I can’t think of any answers, and it doesn’t sound like Sandy has any answers either. While I expected more from Iguchi, the struggles of Hairston and Edmonds were entirely foreseeable.
The more I think about it, while some of Hairston’s homers last year were really fun and came at great moments, those couple games we won because of him is helping to kill this season. Without his late season success the team might have tried to get a better LF in the offseason.
#285@Ben B.: This is the post of the night … who thought walking Molina to get to Rowand was a good idea? NOT ME! Rowand is the best hitter on the team … really the only one to pitch around … WHAT WAS BUD THINKING?
re: Hoffman … when he walked Jose Cruz Jr recently, that’s when I put the final pin in my “done” doll. What’s the criteria for “done”? I’d say when he has less than a 75% chance of converting a save … which according to the numbers above, is where things are at. Actually, I agree that the “done’ decision can’t be made based on the numbers … I’m basing my “done” decision on what I’ve seen in his lack of control … like the walk to Cruz … there’s gotta be a “last straw” … and that was my “last straw” … it doesn’t have to be yours … but tell me what yours is? Does he have to blow 3-5 of his next 10 save ops? … or 3-10 of his next 20? It doesn’t appear like “letting him work out his issues in lower leverage situations” is an option … and I gotta think that part of the reason for that is Hoffy’s self-proclaimed reduced effectiveness in non-save situations. But I think that that has to be part of the path forward … he’s got to pitch some low-leverage innings … and if they are good, then he can try again in save situations … and who closes in the mean time? Ya, that’s part of the problem, ain’t it? I’m OK with the status quo until Hensley or Prior can be the closer … there … that’s my “solution” … ug …
I don’t care#323@KRS1: WHO’S YO’ DADDY!??? QUIEN ES TU PADRE!!???
#329@Ben B.:I know the sample is small and it is too early to make decisions, but they are horrible to watch right now. That and it kills me to watch them play half their games in a park, that suppresses offense to the point of turning baseball games into an exercise in random chance.
#333@Eric: and on that note, goodnight everyone.
I don’t care.
And I’ll say I was wrong (about Hoffy being “done”) if at *any* point during this season he goes 10 appearances (where he comes into a tied game or with a lead) with 0 or 1 blown save (or loss) …
One more thought … I think it’s possible that he could blow enough saves this season to cost him the HOF … or at least to cost him getting in on first ballot … having the “best save %” on his resume is valuable in that regard because in most other regards, the perception is that Rivera is better … if he loses that edge to Rivera, the risks (of HOF entry) go up … just sayin’. How much longer can he keep that title at a 70% success rate? at 50% success rate?
I gotta end with something upbeat … here it is … Mat Latos pitched GREAT today for the Ft Wayne Wizards … his first appearance of the season (he started the year hurt and stayed in extended spring training) … he pitched 4 innings, giving up 5 hits and 3 runs (only 1 earned) … but the best part was the 8Ks and ZERO walks!
He’s still a *long* ways away … and 4 IP is the ultimate “small sample size” … but it’s good news, nonetheless
#337@LynchMob: Bring up Latos to close!
#338@Ben B.: I’ve been heard
(ps. NOT!)
#331@Zagz: Thats a stretch… they would had tried to get a better LF just as hard as they tried to get better in CF. They would had gotten an older bargain stop-gap, or gone with P-Mac or Gerut.
I think it’s to early to write off a kid who pounded in the minors. I think if you are going to give Iguchi and Edmonds more time then why not Hairston. He has the most upside than both.
#340@SDSUBaseball: ::cough:: Reggie Sanders ::cough::
#197@Richard D.: Oh, I see. So it’s a 25 IP stretch we’re judging him on now. That’s a relief becasue I thought it was a small sample size issue. Sheesh.
#336@LynchMob: You know, LM, you and Richard D. need to get on the same page because the last time Trevor ran off 10 consecutive, which is your criteria for him NOT being “done,” was right in the middle of the period Richard D. cites for him being “done.” IOW, he did that just last August/September. The least you chicken little’s can do is be consistent with one another.
#142@Richard D.: Well, I don’t consider myself a Trevor apologist and I offer no excuses. Guy got beat on a home run. It happens. It sucks, but it happens.
343 … Pat, can you tell me what your criteria is for Trevor being “done”? I’m guessing we’re not far apart in our opinions. He’s gonna be “done” sometime, isn’t he? Or do you think he’s good for repeating 2007 for 10 more years and then he just quits while he’s still on top? I know you don’t … and sorry for getting a bit flip.
I think my point can be expanded based on what you are saying … he wasn’t “done” last year … he was able to go out and have 11 good outings in a row … but then you know what happened? He had surgery on his arm! And so far this year, he’s been scored up in 4 out of 8 outings … he’s looked bad (to me) … he walked Jose Cruz Jr when he was 1 out away from a save. No one of these facts is very significant … the anecdotal observations are probably the most significant …
And if he does again what he did from Aug 25 to Sep 28 last season, then I’ll say I was wrong / premature …
345: Yeah, he’s done when we have a meaningful amount of data indicating he is done. What is meaningful? For a guy with a track record like he has meaningful to me would be a full season of poor performance. Will we get that far? No, because he won’t be allowed to go that long with poor performance, imo, but it sure as heck isn’t 7 2/3 IP, or 25 IP.
No need to apologize for being flip. IMO, those of you who are making all of this noise should be apologizing for trashing a guy with one of the most extraordinary track records in ML history, not to mention one of the most consistent track records, based on a ridiculously small amount of data.