Padres Farm Report (1 Jun 08)

by Geoff Young on Jun 01, 2008 (0) Comments

Triple-A — Portland 5, Las Vegas 0

Enrique GonzalezCraig Stansberry: 1-for-4, 2B, BB
Peter Ciofrone (3B): 2-for-4
Chase Headley: 2-for-4
Brian Myrow: 2-for-3, BB
Chip Ambres (CF): 1-for-4, 2B
Vince Sinisi (RF): 2-for-4, 2B
Matt Antonelli: 1-for-4
Clay Hensley: 3 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 2 SO (40 pitches, 20 strikes)
Enrique Gonzalez: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 4 SO

Four Beavers batters had two hits… Hensley’s ball-to-strike ratio was terrible, but three innings of work is three innings of work and we’ll take it… Terrific outing from Gonzalez.

Double-A — San Antonio 7, Arkansas 3

Drew MaciasDrew Macias: 2-for-4, HR, BB, 2 SB
Chad Huffman: 1-for-2, 2 BB, HBP
Craig Cooper: 1-for-4, 2B, BB
Seth Johnston: 1-for-4
Colt Morton: 1-for-4
Kyle Blanks (PH-1B): 1-for-2
Steve Garrison: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 5 SO
Jonathan Ellis: 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 2 SO

The Missions trailed, 2-1, after six innings. Macias was a one-man wrecking crew.

High-A — Lake Elsinore 3, Rancho Cucamonga 1

Cedric HunterJavis Diaz: 0-for-3, BB, SB
Cedric Hunter: 1-for-4, 2B
Eric Sogard: 0-for-4
Mitch Canham: 0-for-3, BB
Kellen Kulbacki (DH): 0-for-4
Nathan Culp: 6.1 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 2 SO (12 GO)

I was at this one. Shot some video; with luck I’ll have that posted in the next few days, assuming it’s any good… Hunter’s double was fun. It came in the eighth inning, with the Storm clinging to a 1-0 lead. He’d been hitting the ball to the opposite field in previous at-bats, but with Diaz at second and one out, Hunter yanked a fastball from southpaw Barret Browning down the line and over the first-base bag, driving in the visiting team’s second run of the evening… Sogard hit .243/.361/.262 in May; sure he drew some walks, but an .019 ISO? Canham had a nice at-bat in the sixth. He ended up flying out to center, but saw about a dozen pitches… Culp looked good but not overpowering on the mound.

Low-A — Fort Wayne 6, Dayton 3 (1st game); Fort Wayne 10, Dayton 4 (2nd game)

Felix CarrascoLuis Durango (DH): 0-for-8, BB
Lance Zawadzki (SS): 3-for-6, 2B, BB, SH, E
Felix Carrasco: 4-for-7, 3 2B, BB
Justin Baum: 4-for-7, 2 2B, BB
Yefri Carvajal: 3-for-8, 2 2B
Shane Buschini: 3-for-7, HBP
Wynn Pelzer: 3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 HR, 0 BB, 2 SO
Geoff Vandel: 2.1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 2 BB, 4 SO
Jeremy Hefner: 5 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 5 SO

Wow, an organizational sweep… The first game was a completion of the one suspended by lightning on Friday… Carrasco and Carvajal went nuts in the regularly scheduled contest. (Big thanks to Chad Gramling for the photo of Carrasco.)

Draft Watch: Andrew Cashner

Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian U.

pre-draft rankings:

Cashner hails from the same school that produced San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson and current Padres farmhand Chad Huffman. The right-hander throws hard (consistently at 96-98 mph according to BA) but has spotty command. He’s been more effective as a reliever.

I took Cashner in the Baseball Blogger Mock Draft because he best aligned with the Padres’ demonstrated preferences in the draft. Left to my own devices, I probably would have gone with high school outfielder Zach Collier or possibly Anthony Hewitt.

IGD: Padres @ Giants (31 May 08)

by Geoff Young on May 31, 2008 (93) Comments

Padres (22-34) @ Giants (23-32)
Josh Banks vs Patrick Misch
1:05 p.m. PT
no television
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 184
MLB, B-R

Banks makes his second big-league start. Pads have won four out of five. Baby steps…

Padres Farm Report (31 May 08)

by Geoff Young on May 31, 2008 (26) Comments

Triple-A — Sacramento 10, Portland 3

Chase HeadleyWill Venable (DH): 1-for-5
Peter Ciofrone (3B-RF): 3-for-4, BB
Chase Headley: 3-for-5, 2B
Brian Myrow: 0-for-3
Chip Ambres (CF): 1-for-3
Vince Sinisi (RF-1B): 0-for-4
Nick Hundley: 0-for-3, BB
Craig Stansberry: 1-for-3, 2B, BB
Matt Antonelli: 1-for-4, 2 E
Cesar Ramos: 4 IP, 8 H, 9 R, 1 HR, 5 BB, 4 SO
Mauro Zarate: 3 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 2 SO
Paul Abraham: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 0 SO, WP

Double-A — Springfield 5, San Antonio 2

Drew Macias: 0-for-4
Chad Huffman: 0-for-3, SF
Kyle Blanks: 0-for-1, BB
Jose Lobaton: 0-for-4
Craig Cooper (PR-1B): 1-for-1
Matt Buschmann: 4.1 IP, 10 H, 5 R, 2 HR, 2 BB, 4 SO, WP, HBP

High-A — Lake Elsinore 11, Rancho Cucamonga 3

Cedric HunterJavis Diaz: 1-for-5
Cedric Hunter: 2-for-4, 2B, BB
Eric Sogard: 1-for-4, 2B, BB
Mitch Canham: 1-for-4, 3B, BB, SB
Drew Miller: 6 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 SO
Justin Hampson: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 SO

Hunter stays hot, Sogard hits his first double since the Pleistocene, and Hampson makes another rehab appearance.

Low-A

Dayton @ Fort Wayne, suspended in third inning due to lightning. Game will resume Saturday, May 31, at 2 p.m. PT.

Draft Watch: David Cooper

Time to get real. Now that I’ve given you some names of guys I’d like to see the Padres target, let’s turn to the players they are likely to consider at #23. Knowing what we do about the organization and its extreme aversion to risk in drafting, I’m looking primarily at pitchers with command and hitters who control the strike zone, with a slight preference for college guys.

Again, this isn’t necessarily the way I would do things. We’re trying to think along with the front office here.

David Cooper, 1B, U. of California

pre-draft rankings:

Cooper draws praise for his strong hands and hand-eye coordination, a combination that results in good strike-zone judgment and the ability to drive the ball with authority. He is considered a liability on the basepaths and in the field, leading some to believe he might be better suited to an American League team. In an organization that already has Adrian Gonzalez and Kyle Blanks, Cooper isn’t necessarily the best fit, but he does represent a big bat. The club reached a little for Kellen Kulbacki in 2007; it could do the same for Cooper this year.

Paul DePodesta has some thoughts on the draft over at his blog. Meanwhile, in a mock draft I’m participating in, I took right-hander Andrew Cashner out of TCU. I’m not confident about this pick, but when the Mets snagged Arizona State first baseman Ike Davis, I narrowed it down to Cashner and Arizona right-hander Ryan Perry. Most folks seem to like Cashner a little better, but it’s close. I’ll be profiling Cashner, Davis, and Perry over the next few days…

IGD: Padres @ Giants (30 May 08)

by Geoff Young on May 30, 2008 (282) Comments

Greg MadduxPadres (21-34) @ Giants (23-31)
Greg Maddux vs Matt Cain
7:15 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 185
MLB, B-R

The Padres have moved into fourth place in the NL West, a half game ahead of the defending league champion Colorado Rockies. The Diamondbacks are the only team in the division with a record better than .500, and they’re 10-16 this month. Despite the Pads’ extreme ineptitude early on, they’re still not out of this race. They need to start playing better, of course, but things could be worse.

Be excellent to one another. Go Padres!

When Projections Go Bad

by Geoff Young on May 30, 2008 (42) Comments

What the heck, now is as good a time as any to revisit pre-season projections. I know, OPS and ERA aren’t the end-all and be-all, but they’re good enough for government work…

Projections vs Reality: Hitters
  OPS
Player BJ CH MA MI ZI DS Act
Statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and are through games of May 29, 2008. Click on column head for more info about projection system.
Josh Bard 785 741 791 728 767 767 540
Adrian Gonzalez 839 840 842 810 862 879 894
Tadahito Iguchi 760 737 756 723 751 732 657
Kevin Kouzmanoff 882 796 789 740 837 858 741
Khalil Greene 762 764 752 747 742 773 599
Scott Hairston 833 740 769 721 722 794 714
Jim Edmonds 830 766 782 739 784 756 498
Brian Giles 820 777 783 732 773 789 815

Gonzalez and Giles are doing as well as or better than expected; Iguchi, Kouzmanoff, and Hairston are underperforming; and Bard, Greene, and Edmonds aren’t even close.

Projections vs Reality: Pitchers
  ERA
Player BJ CH MA MI ZI DS Act
Statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs and are through games of May 29, 2008. Click on column head for more info about projection system.
Jake Peavy 3.23 2.99 3.23 3.48 2.99 2.81 2.91
Chris Young 3.34 3.39 3.51 4.31 3.32 3.23 4.50
Greg Maddux 3.60 3.91 4.30 3.94 3.92 4.09 3.76
Randy Wolf 3.87 4.04 4.85 4.75 5.03 4.18 4.59
Justin Germano 4.40 4.11 4.24 4.14 4.24 4.62 5.98
Trevor Hoffman 2.80 3.41 3.60 3.88 2.53 3.21 4.58
Heath Bell 3.10 3.18 3.55 3.18 2.89 2.76 2.37
Cla Meredith 3.51 3.25 3.73 3.39 3.26 2.97 4.33
Joe Thatcher – 3.67 3.86 – 2.96 2.86 7.45

Bell is outpitching his projections; Peavy, Maddux, and Wolf are doing what everyone expected; and Young, Hoffman, and Meredith have been worse than projected; and Germano and Thatcher have been a complete disaster.

Three guys are doing better than the experts expected, four are about where they should be, and 10 aren’t meeting their projections (half of those are failing in spectacular fashion). Yep, that could be a problem…

Padres Farm Report (30 May 08)

by Geoff Young on May 30, 2008 (8) Comments

I’m listening to the new REM. If everything between Automatic for the People and now was intended to provide dramatic effect for their return to sounding like REM, then holy smokes it’s been a smashing success. I had no idea they were capable of making music like this anymore. No whining mid-tempo crap, just driving rock ‘n’ roll. It’s like they suddenly decided it’d be good to make a follow up to Reckoning. Novel concept, that.

Anyway, you’re here for the baseball…

Triple-A — Sacramento 12, Portland 7

Dirk HayhurstPeter Ciofrone (LF): 1-for-5, E
Chase Headley (3B): 0-for-2, 3 BB
Brian Myrow: 2-for-5, HR, E
Chip Ambres (CF): 2-for-5
Will Venable (DH): 1-for-3, BB, HBP
Nick Hundley: 2-for-5, 2B, HR
Vince Sinisi: 2-for-4, SF
Dirk Hayhurst: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 9 SO (91 pitches, 55 strikes)
Mauro Zarate: 0.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 1 BB, 0 SO
Adam Bass: 1 IP, 1 H, 3 R, 0 HR, 4 BB, 1 SO
Joe Thatcher: 1.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 2 SO

Hayhurst made his first start after 15 relief appearances to start the season — fanned the first four batters he faced, including Travis Buck, who has had some success at the big-league level… Zarate, Bass, and Edwin Moreno then gave a textbook demonstration of how not to protect a lead.

Double-A — San Antonio 7, Springfield 4

Drew MaciasDrew Macias: 4-for-5, 3B
Chad Huffman: 0-for-3, BB, SF
Kyle Blanks: 2-for-4
Seth Johnston: 0-for-4
Jose Lobaton: 1-for-4
Craig Cooper: 1-for-1, HR
Stephen Faris: 6 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 3 BB, 7 SO (10 GO)

Cooper came on as a defensive replacement in the seventh and homered two innings later… Faris’ line is unusual: he recorded only one fly ball out, but allowed a homer.

High-A — Rancho Cucamonga 11, Lake Elsinore 6

Kellen KulbackiJavis Diaz: 1-for-5
Cedric Hunter: 2-for-5, 2B, HR
Eric Sogard (DH): 2-for-4, BB
Mitch Canham: 0-for-5
Rayner Contreras: 2-for-4, BB
Kellen Kulbacki: 3-for-4, 2B, HR, E
Cory Luebke: 2 IP, 10 H, 8 R, 1 HR, 0 BB, 4 SO
Justin Hampson: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 0 SO

Hunter keeps flashing the power, Sogard not so much… Kulbacki is showing some signs of life… Fugly line from Luebke…

Low-A — Fort Wayne 8, Dayton 3

Luis Durango: 1-for-4, 2B, BB
Justin Baum: 1-for-4, HR
Yefri Carvajal: 2-for-4
Felix Carrasco: 2-for-4, 2 HR
Shane Buschini (DH): 0-for-4
Matt Teague: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 4 SO (8 GO)
Robert Woodard: 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 2 SO

Carrasco continues to make Russell Branyan look like Rod Carew… I wish I had a photo of him — Carrasco, that is, although a photo of Carew might be nice, too… More coverage at the Wizards official web site.

Off the field, infielder Drew Cumberland has been placed on the disabled list due to a “tweaked” rhomboid muscle. What is a rhomboid muscle? Something to do with the shoulder, it seems…

Draft Watch: Jemile Weeks

Jemile Weeks, 2B, U. of Miami

pre-draft rankings:

The younger brother of Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks could be a terrific fit for the Padres. He’s an athletic, switch-hitting infielder with speed and good on-base skills. He doesn’t possess his brother’s power and may be better suited to center field. Similar skill set to Matt Antonelli.

IGD: Padres vs Nationals (29 May 08)

by Geoff Young on May 29, 2008 (195) Comments

Wil LedezmaPadres (20-34) vs Nats (23-31)
Wil Ledezma vs John Lannan
12:35 p.m. PT
no television
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 188
MLB, B-R

Afternoon game in San Diego.

Padres Farm Report (29 May 08)

by Geoff Young on May 29, 2008 (32) Comments

Before we get started, I’ve got a new article up at Hardball Times about a few stories I’ve been tracking this season. I’ve also been interviewed over at Friar Nation. Yes, my revised win projection for the Padres is 73. Seems kinda bleak, but they’d actually need to break even the rest of the way to achieve it. When you look at it that way, I’m being perhaps too optimistic…

Triple-A — Sacramento 3, Portland 2

Josh GeerPeter Ciofrone (RF): 1-for-4, 2B
Chase Headley: 1-for-4
Brian Myrow: 0-for-4
Chip Ambres (CF): 0-for-3, BB
Craig Stansberry (SS): 0-for-2, S
Matt Antonelli: 0-for-2, BB
Vince Sinisi (PH): 0-for-1
Josh Geer: 7 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 8 SO (9 GO)
Joe Thatcher: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 SO
Paul Abraham: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 0 SO (3 GO)

Antonelli’s batting average is down to .178… Sinisi, out all year with a fractured right wrist sustained during spring training, came off the disabled list and made his season debut… Solid effort from Geer. The homer was to the rehabbing Eric Chavez (Mt. Carmel HS).

Double-A — San Antonio 7, Springfield 5

Chad HuffmanDrew Macias: 2-for-4, BB, SB, E
Chad Huffman: 3-for-4, 2B, HR, BB
Kyle Blanks: 0-for-4, HBP
Craig Cooper: 0-for-2, HBP
Seth Johnston: 1-for-5, 2B
Colt Morton: 0-for-3, HBP
Will Inman: 4 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 1 HR, 2 BB, 4 SO, HBP (90 pitches, 58 strikes)
Jonathan Ellis: 1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 0 SO (3 GO)
Neil Jamison: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 4 SO (2 GO)

Huffman is en fuego… Rough start for Inman… Dominant outing for Jamison — six batters, four strikeouts, two ground outs.

Pat Turner at the San Antonio Express-News pens a nice article on Cooper.

High-A — Lake Elsinore 6, Rancho Cucamonga 2

Corey KluberJavis Diaz: 1-for-4, S, SB
Cedric Hunter: 1-for-3, BB, SF
Eric Sogard: 1-for-5
Mitch Canham: 2-for-4, BB
Rayner Contreras: 1-for-3, HBP, E
Kellen Kulbacki: 2-for-4
Corey Kluber: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 HR, 1 BB, 6 SO

Third consecutive strong start from Kluber (18.1 IP, 14 H, 5 BB, 17 SO, 2.45 ERA over that stretch).

Low-A — Dayton 5, Fort Wayne 4

Yefri CarvajalLuis Durango: 2-for-3, 2 BB
Justin Baum: 1-for-5, 2B, E (15)
Shane Buschini: 0-for-2, BB, E
Yefri Carvajal: 1-for-4, HR
Jeremy McBryde: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 4 SO
Geoff Vandel: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 HR, 0 BB, 1 SO

More coverage at OurSports Central.

Draft Watch: Tanner Scheppers

So, yeah, next week I’ll take a look at some guys who might be on the Padres draft list. For now, I’m still indulging the fantasy of how I would run the show.

Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Fresno St.

pre-draft rankings:

The only reason Scheppers might slip to #23 is a stress fracture in his right shoulder. If not for that, he’s a top 10 pick. With the Padres’ recent history of first-round pitching flameouts (Tim Stauffer, Cesar Carrillo, Nick Schmidt), they probably won’t be willing to gamble on Scheppers, but if he’s still there at #42 or #46, who knows. When healthy, he works with a 92-96 mph fastball that touched 99 mph in a relief appearance, and a power breaking ball.

IGD: Padres vs Nationals (28 May 08)

by Geoff Young on May 28, 2008 (71) Comments

Shawn EstesPadres (20-33) vs Nats (22-31)
Shawn Estes vs Odalis Perez
7:05 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 188
MLB, B-R

The ability to throw left handed and breathe at the same time can make some men very rich…

On a less facetious note, have you noticed how much Kevin Kouzmanoff has improved defensively this year? He’s eighth in the big leagues in range factor (ahead of guys like Adrian Beltre and David Wright), and nobody has turned more double plays at the hot corner (an even dozen, the same number he turned all of last year!). Heck, Kouz rules the world in terms of RZR:

Kouzmanoff’s Defense
Year FPct RF RZR DP/100inn
Statistics are courtesy of ESPN and Hardball Times, and are through games of May 27, 2008.
2007 .932 2.38 .680 1.05
2008 .974 2.85 .779 2.50

That really isn’t the same guy…

Notes on a Victory

by Geoff Young on May 28, 2008 (63) Comments

Satisfying win on Tuesday night. The last two games I’ve attended have followed the exact same pattern: Randy Wolf serves up a two-run homer in the first, settles down, and watches his teammates play long ball late.

To the bullet points:

  • Hard to complain about a victory, but I’ll do it anyway. The Pads really should have put Shawn Hill away early. He had zero command.
  • I love watching Adrian Gonzalez play first base. Aaron Boone hit a grounder down the line at third to start the sixth. Kevin Kouzmanoff made a nice backhanded grab, then fired across the diamond well ahead of Boone. The throw came up the line, back toward home plate, and Adrian shifted his feet on the bag to maintain his balance and make the play with ease.

    Rich and I were talking about this the other day, and it’s a subtle point about first base defense that often gets overlooked. Andres Galarraga was the best I ever saw at it. A lot of guys will keep the back foot anchored to the bag no matter what and then reach across their body. The problem is, it’s real easy to fall over that way. The Big Cat used to keep his other foot on the bag on throws up the line and then extend with what normally would be the back foot. Adrian is very adept at that play, so much so that you probably haven’t noticed him doing it.

  • Khalil Greene drew two walks. That’s the second time he’s done it this season and the 21st time in his career. He tried for his first-ever hat trick in the fifth but was caught looking at a 3-2 pitch.
  • Speaking of Adrian and Kouz, how about homers on consecutive pitches in the seventh? Adrian’s just cleared Wily Mo Pena’s extended glove in left, but Kouz absolutely crushed his. He’s been doing that a lot of late. Heck, he has five homers on the current homestand. Kouz is batting .333/.389/.788 over those eight games.
  • Seven of Kouz’s eight home runs this season have come at Petco. Guess he didn’t get the memo.
  • Actually, the entire team didn’t get the memo. As they did in 2007, the Padres are outhomering the opposition at home, 24-22. That’s not as wide a margin as last year, but still… for all the fan and media grousing about the ballpark’s dimensions, the players seem to deal with their environment okay.
  • Just can’t get enough Kouz. Here are his stats through the Padres’ first 53 games last year and this year:
    • 2007: .204/.276/.372
    • 2008: .280/.316/.436
  • We sat in Section 300. Here’s a tip for anyone looking to buy tickets in the upper deck: If you’re in rows 9 to about 16, be sure to get seats in the middle of the row (seats 4 to 12 or so); at the ends, your view is likely to be obstructed by plexiglass and/or metal.
  • Another thing about Petco Park — and I’ve been meaning to mention this for a while — is there’s a cool little exhibit about the history of baseball in San Diego down the left-field line. From the 7th Street entrance, hang a right and go up the stairs. Once at the top, turn left and it’s on the wall to your left. The exhibit contains photographs, equipment, and other items of interest from by-gone eras.

    I learned, among other things, that Hall of Fame second baseman Bobby Doerr played for the PCL Padres in 1936, when the team called Lane Field home. Thanks to the SABR Minor Leagues Database, I can see that Doerr hit .342 with two homers that season. Doerr, inducted in 1986, returned to Cooperstown this past summer, where he was honored (and sadly, ignored by most of the crowd) shortly after Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. received their inductions.

  • Meanwhile, back in the NL West, the top two teams lost on Tuesday. Remember how the Diamondbacks were going to run away with the division because of one good month? Yeah, well, they’re 10-14 in May. Guess that’s why teams keep playing games this late in the season.
  • Off the field, the Padres have acquired right-hander Cha Seung Baek from Seattle for right-hander Jared Wells. Once upon a time, Baek was considered a prospect. He ranked #12 among Mariners farmhands in the Baseball America 2001 Prospect Handbook, sandwiched roughly between two pretty good relievers, Rafael Soriano and Brian Fuentes. The M’s #1 guy in ’01? Lefty Ryan Anderson, who never reached the big leagues. The runner up was that season’s American League MVP, Ichiro Suzuki… Anyway, I don’t know much about Baek, but I guess that’s obvious.

That’s all for now; more as it happens…