Padres (20-34) vs Nats (23-31)
Wil Ledezma vs John Lannan
12:35 p.m. PT
no television
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 188
MLB, B-R
Afternoon game in San Diego.
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195 Comments
In case you missed it previously, DePo talks about the Baek trade …
http://tinyurl.com/5764vf
A series win sure would be nice right about now.
The Friar John blog has been posting some very nice high-res pics lately … here’s an aerial photo of Petco that I like …
http://tinyurl.com/3tllyp
GY … you’re going to like the latest Draft Tracker at BA …
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-tracker/2008/266183.html
… has Casey Kelly as the #23 player.
If Ike Davis can play OF, then I hope the Padres take him at #23 … I want the biggest bat available.
GY … I just posted a link to BA that didn’t make it past the spam filter … you’ll like the link …
I may be alone in this, but I have liked how Estes has been pitching. Basically, he lost it for three consecutive batters yesterday (the BB, HBP and HR), but otherwise had a pretty good game.
If you just looked at his numbers and his pitching, I think he is a decent #4.
Also, I am gradually getting more impressed with Hairston. Yes, the HR was great, but I know he can pull inside fastballs. What has been impressing me is his plate discipline. At least the last few times I have seen him, he seems to be recognizing pitches pretty well. Also, it looks like he is trying to go to RF with outside pitches. Some hope…
It still amazes me the KG still cannot recognize the down and away slider.
#5@LynchMob: Oops, never mind … or thanks for freeing it …
#6@jay: You are not alone in liking how Estes has been pitching. I am NOT and never have been an Estes fan … but it sure seems like he’s worked hard to get himself in shape to be able to contribute at the MLB level. He’s a 5-inning-max guy … but that’s valuable for the Padres right now … I think it’s a good thing that the Padres gave him a chance to work his way back.
re: KG … yes, the way he appears stuck in reacting to the down and away sliders is amazing … GY – do you know any former-MLB-hitters that you might interview to present insights into what might be going on there? (ie. what things KG might be trying to do / not-do … what things might the batting coach be doing … how likely is postive change …)
#8@LynchMob: I think we are all surprised by how Estes is pitching at the moment but it was still a bad decision to bring him in an start games. He’s a much worse pitcher then Odalis Perez even though their salaries are similar ($500k for Estes, $850k for Perez).
If they were going to target someone with absolutely zero track record over the past 4 years (in 2006) at least they could have gone for Josh Hamilton — everyone knew that he had potential.
#8@LynchMob: It amazes me that Channel 4 has T Gwynn in the booth but no one ever asks him about Khalil’s slider issues.
There’s some interesting data on Khalil here:
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/2008/batters/Khalil_Greene.html
The only low and away pitch he seems to really swing and miss at is the slider. He’s batting .176 against sliders.
Last year’s data really shows how often he swings at sliders low and away:
http://baseball.bornbybits.com/plots/bat/Khalil_Greene.html
Out of approximately 50 swings he had one hit. If he simply stopped swinging at all sliders, regardless of location, I’m sure his OBP would go up at least 20 points.
#9@Schlom:
You bring this up again (how it was a bad idea). Maybe so, but ultimately it’s the results that matter. Then you can say that we were lucky.
OT … a fun look at pitcher hitting …
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7588
#10@Anthony: That would require recognizing a slider.
#11@Stephen: They’ve won 25% of the games he’s started. That’s the only result that really matters.
#14@Schlom: With this offense though your 25% win percentage in his 4 starts does not tell the whole story. His WHIP and ERA are respectable.
Agree, I would rather have Odalis Perez than S. Estes but someone like Tomko is not, as you stated last night, way better than Estes.
#15@JP: Yeah, it’s tough to say if he’s been lucky thus far or if he’s really pitching that well. He’s not striking a lot of guys out, but his last two outings he did K a few more than the first two, but then he walked more guys in those outings as well. Seems like, as LM said, he could be useful if limited to 5 IP per start, then again he may just be getting lucky right now and will get lit up in his next 4 starts. I can’t believe in him yet despite the relative success. But I’m not unhappy about it.
How’s that for noncommital?
#14@Schlom: C’mon, man, that’s a dumb argument to make and you know it. I’m with you that Estes is not a good pitcher and his success is unlikely to continue (although his peripherals mostly match his RA because he’s gotten lots of groundballs), but he has been solid in his four starts to this point.
#15@JP: You were right about Tomko, I didn’t realize that he hasn’t been good outside of one season — that’s what I get for not looking up stats.
However, Tomko is a perfect parallel for Estes. They are nearly the same age (Tomko is two month younger) have comparable ERA+ (92 for Tomko, 91 for Estes) and were last above average in 1997. They’ve both been bad the past 5 years (Estes 5.52 ERA in 484 IP and Tomko 4.78 ERA in 831 IP). Since Tomko has been marginally more successful in his career and in the past 5 seasons, I’d guess I’d prefer him as a starter. Yet the Padres FO rightly thought that he’s close to useless (and he was signed by who else but the KC Royals) but at the same time they decided that Estes was an acceptable starter. Why would they think that?
BPro has some cool analysis of pitcher hitting by Nate Silver, along with a list of the ten best hitting pitchers in baseball. It’s a fun list to read, and it’s free for all (no subscription required).
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7588
#16@Pat: noncommital? WWRLES?
(ie. What Would R. Lee Ermey Say?)
#13@Field39: I’m sure he can recognize a slider, I can’t imagine he could make it to the big leagues otherwise. He can hit them in the zone, sort of.
Estes’ primary value to the Padres is as a trading chip. Win or lose, as long as he continues to pitch well we might be able to get something of value in return.
#18@Schlom: Because Tomko got a major league deal (I think) and started the year in the rotation with the Royals. Estes started in AAA and didn’t get a chance until Germano, Rusch, and Ledezma struggled and LeBlanc, Ramos, and Geer proved they weren’t ready.
#17@Ben B.: He’s also faced three of the worst teams in baseball (Mariners, Reds and Nationals) in favorable pitching environments — giving up 7 runs in 17.1 IP in those games isn’t really that good. Oddly, he managed to win against the Cubs in Wrigley.
I’m not rooting him for him to fail — it’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility that he can finish the year with an ERA of around 3.50. But there’s probably around a 1% chance of that happening. Shouldn’t Towers be looking for pitchers that have a higher chance of success? That’s been my main point on all of this — I’m not opposed to gambles they just have to be on the right players. Gambling on Jody Gerut — bad. Gambling on Josh Hamilton — good. Gambling on Justin Germano — acceptable, gambling on Shawn Estes — bad.
Let’s face it, outside of the Milton Bradley acquisition, Towers hasn’t exactly done a great job the past year or so. That doesn’t discount the things he’s done over the past 10 years but moves in the past don’t excuse his current failings.
#23@Schlom: How exactly do you justify Jody Gerut as being a bad gamble? It seems to have worked out pretty good.
I’m not calling for Towers to be fired — my greatest fear is that he’s going to leave after this season and take the Yankee job — but that he avoids making the same mistakes over and over. However, I’ll admit that none of this stuff is really his fault, the cheapness of John Moores might be the real reason although that doesn’t explain why he’d rather spend $6m on Jim Edmonds then Rick Porcello. Through this 4 year good run by the Padres the team has underachieved (slightly) because of poor drafting and the inability to produce a 5th starter. And it’s not like those were one year problems, it happens every season. So during the best 4 year in team history, they were only able to win 1 measly playoff game.
#22@Ben B.: Just don’t engage him, Ben.
#24@Phantom: Hitting 216/301/324 is working out? I guess compared to the alternative (Jim Edmonds it is). Again, Gerut might rebound to hit like he did as a rookie (279/336/494) but the odds of that are extremely long.
The Padres won 89 games last season and last night they started three players that belong in Triple A (Estes, Huber and Carlin). Today they only have two (Ledezma, Edgar Gonzalez). Doesn’t anyone find that very troubling?
#27@Schlom: Not necessarily, as there is a little-known phenomenon in baseball referred to as injuries. We’ve got two starting pitchers down and until recently, had lost both of our starting catchers. Not really sure how you’d like us to fill those positions with people not from our minor league system.
As for E-Gon starting, this is what, the second game all year he’s started? Stop bitching about our “AAAA” team already. We get it, you think we suck. If you’re going to continually spout this kind of crap, I’m sure the UT commenters would welcome you with open arms.
OT … Mr TTO (Russell the Mussell Branyan) is doing this TTO-thang …
http://tinyurl.com/5r6gew
… 2 BBs, 1 K, 1 HR in 4 PAs today
#26@Kevin: I don’t get why there isn’t a larger outcry. Last season they were one strike away (and one fluke injury) from maybe being the favorite to make the World Series out of the National League and this season they are the 2nd worst team in baseball and can be compared to the worst run franchises in the majors. Isn’t everyone pissed off about this? How exactly do you see the team improving? Other then Kouzmanoff, they don’t have anyone who is likely to get an “Adam Eaton” package in return. Are only hope is that the Padres prospects pan out but historically this franchise has never produced in any great numbers.
#30@Schlom: Dude, nobody thought that Adam Eaton would get the package he got. Towers absolutely raped Daniels in that trade. Adam was great while he was here, but he couldn’t stay healthy and it was obvious to most people that were paying attention that he wasn’t as good as he looked in Petco.
People are pissed about the season, but what are we going to do about it? Complain that Towers couldn’t predict the utter collapse of everything but our starting pitching in April and May? At least Kouz and Adrian are starting to hit, and Barrett seems like he wants to help out. But our bullpen (surprisingly) blew a ton of games in April and Bard and Khalil played well below their career norms. You want to jump all over the FO for that?
Be my guest. You clearly think this baseball thing is much easier to predict than it is. I don’t recall seeing too many predictions that had us this far under .500 for the year. Our collapse has surprised EVERYONE.
#28@Phantom: People may not like what Schlom writes, or how often he writes it, but…..we’re 14 games under .500 and May isn’t over yet. How does that not suck?
Seriously, people are acting like Gerut, Estes, Egon, etc. are keeping us in a pennant race or something. Are people watching a different Padre team than the one that has given me a six-week headache?
#30@Schlom: Outcry? Do you think everyone should storm the team’s offices or picket. It’s a baseball team. They aren’t playing well. Get over it.
You keep bringing up the same things over and over. Get off the horse. It’s dead.
#20@LynchMob: I can imagine it would not be complimentary.
#32@Tom Waits: I am in no way proclaiming that we don’t suck. I’m not sure where I’ve ever said that we’re awesome.
Gerut is the best of crappy options. At least the team addressed the Edmonds situation and cut him quickly. E-Gon is a back-up player, so I don’t have a problem with him on this team. There were better options than Estes, but he’s done OK so far. He didn’t make the team out of ST, so it’s not like we pinned all of our hopes on him.
Can peole really honestly tell me that they aren’t surprised by how bad we played in April? Or did some of you expect this type of play and just decided to stay quiet? I really, really don’t remember anyone predicting that things would be this bad. We all thought we had a decent team. They’ve significantly underplayed those expectations. How again is it the FO’s fault for failing to predict that?
#31@Phantom: Actually, it hasn’t surprised everyone. Christina Kahrl of BP point-blank said it wasn’t that surprising. Lots of observers had us picked 4th in the NL West.
Greene was among the more likely candidates to disappoint. Lots of people were worried about the ability of CYoung and Peavy to repeat. And as several DS posters stated over the winter, for all the talk of Towers having a Midas touch with the pen, he’s put together stinkers before.
The depth of the collapse was surprising, but the fact that we didn’t compete wasn’t such a shock as you suggest. Before the season our win range was often forecast at 70-88. We may end up as a 75 win team masquerading as a 68 win team, but it’s not like we were this lock to compete.
Isn’t this the IGD? Is there a day game today, baseball under the sun, involving the San Diego Padres? Or is this the Schlom & Shawn Show?
#36@Tom Waits: But you’re basic reaction implies that it was a given we had the potential to be a 100-loss team. I defy anyone here to point me to that kind of prediction before the season started. Nobody was thinking that way.
It’s incredibly easy to look back at the first third of the season and gripe and grouse. But it’s not intellectually honest to accuse the FO of putting together a crap team now when nobody was saying so in February and March.
Virtually the entire NL West has disappointed. Nobody predicted that. I believe it’s why they play the games.
Tough PA by Aaron Boone there. Draws a 9 pitch BB with 2 outs and a runner on 2nd. Wilezma looks like he’s bringing it today in the mid 90’s according to pitchfx and mixing in the slider, splitter and change. Hope he can get Young (Man, he’s a funny looking dude).
#35@Phantom: You claiming that they’re awesome has nothing to do with it. It’s you telling Schlom that he’s off-base in proclaiming that we stink that bothers me.
Yes, it is the front office’s job to prepare for contingencies. Many, many people were very worried about Edmonds and the lack of a bonafide contingency plan. Lots of people were worried about the lack of quality depth in the rotation and the continued reliance on waiver claims and Rule 5 picks in the bullpen. They couldn’t have predicted the complete breakdown, but they could have taken steps to mitigate the scope of the disaster. Their path to Opening Day 2008 wasn’t set in stone.
Wil is throwing way too many pitches. He’s at 56 in the midst of the third.
Nice! Wilezma with the K to end the inning.
Anyone else interested in the game on the field today?
#37@Pat: Well said.
#38@Phantom: My basic reaction implies no such thing. Like I said, the depth of their late April and early May swoon was surprising. The fact that they would not be much of a factor was predicted by many observers. Or do only Ducksnorters count?
#37@Pat: Yeah, there’s a game, but those have become a secondary concern around here of late.
#38@Phantom: I’ve been sitting on a post that looks back at pre-season projections from multiple sources for several of our key players. It’s quite revealing (and depressing). I may have to finish that up for tomorrow…
#40@Tom Waits: Where have I said that we don’t stink? You keep saying that I’m here defending the team like I think we’re awesome. I don’t. But I also realize that this is a fairly big surprise that caught everyone off-guard. What’s the point in piling on for the FO when they couldn’t have predicted this collapse?
The FO is trying to make moves to fix things. Our farm system isn’t quite where it needs to be yet, so they’re kind of handcuffed in that regard (farm system is their fault, to be sure).
But I’m in no way pleased with the way the team is playing. I’m pretty pissed that we’ve blown as many games as we have. But am I going to blast the FO for not predicting this? Of course not. Most people’s expectations were of a team who would win a number of games that fell somewhere in the 80s.
#44@Tom Waits: Of course Ducksnorters only don’t count, but again, I do not recall reading in SI or ESPN or THT or BA or BP that we’d be this bad. I don’t think anyone thought we’d be worse than the Giants.
#42@Pat: I am, but I’m also interested in people not unfairly turning on Schlom.
The Nationals have a terrible lineup. Ledezma needs to pitch five or six shutout innings, then leave it to the bullpen.
#49@Kevin: I don’t thik Ledezma can throw enough pitches to get through six, five will be a strech.
#46@Phantom: Point out where I said that “you think they’re awesome.” You overreacted to Schlom saying that they stink, as in, “We get it. You think they stink. Now go somewhere else.” Well, they have stunk. They may not stink permanently, but they’ve stunk long and hard.
#47@Phantom: Maybe I need to write it one more time. The depth of the collapse, in terms of losing 16 of 18, would be hard to predict. That’s some randomness. The possibility of losing 90 games this year was not so hard to predict, and in fact some people did it. When the season’s over, I’d expect us to be in 3rd place with somewhere between 65-71 wins, in the lower band of most preseason projections.
#48@Tom Waits: People just don’t want to hear the same things over and over. The front office sucks, Greene sucks, Gerut sucks, Estes sucks, etc. The team is more interesting than that.
What about Koumanoff’s fielding that Geoff pointed out yesterday? No one talked about it, I don’t think.
Milledge just bunted for a hit, stole second, then third. What is this, Alan Wiggins?
#51@Tom Waits: So how does dismissing his constant refrain imply that I think his argument is invalid? As Kevin pointed out, it gets old. It’s like the Kyle Lohse crap, all over again.
I seem to remember reading most pre-season predictions that had us at around 80 to 84 wins. I really don’t recall that many predictions that had us pegged for 72 wins or less. Does anyone remember such predictions? Could they please share the links?
#53@Kevin: Glad I started him today for my fantasy league
Any chance we see Baek today?
#52@Kevin: I guess I have a higher tolerance for it. Although, what people say in reply is pretty much the same thing over and over. We’re a better team than our record, but people defend the front office like the shortcomings were inconceivable. Many of them were quite conceivable.
Kouz looks like he got a slump-buster about three weeks ago.
How does Ledezma throw this many pitches to this lineup with his stuff?
#56@Tom Waits: re: Ledezma, I know.
The bad part: About half the Nationals lineup is out, including Zimmerman. Lo Duca is doing color commentary.
#56@Tom Waits: I think that’s always been the operative question with him. I understand that the guy has a great arm, but at some point, isn’t the ability to get guys out more important?
It’s that kind of thinking that makes me moderately uneasy about Baek. I keep hearing that he’s got a great arm and his peripherals aren’t necessarily indicative of his true talent. People have repeatedly made the same excuses for Ledezma, and it doesn’t seem to have yielded any actual results thus far.
#55@Phantom: There was a story on Padres.com that said Baek could get a start soon, I think.
#55@Phantom: Carlin might have kept a run off the board that inning by not letting Milledge steal two bases.
#45@Geoff Young: Fair enough, but the discussions could take place somewhere other than the IGD, couldn’t they?
We have a couple of runners on base here. Let’s get at least one across to even it up again.
#50@Field39: Yeah, he’s brining it, but he’s also throwing too many balls and I’ve noticed a fair amount of foul balls. Maybe he can have a couple of quick innings in the 5th and 6th.
Nick Johnson and Austin Kearns are also injured. This is a bad lineup.
Bases juiced for E Gonzalez. Get it done, Edgar.
Yes!
Padres lead 2-1.
#54@Phantom: If you really have a problem with it, then I’d suggest you do as Kevin and some others advise and simply not respond. It’s hardly fair to engage in a discussion and then tell the other guy he talks too much.
The predictions don’t have to have us “pegged” at anything. Most predictions are going to be a small target, not a range with “Max” and “Min.” What many predictions shared was a skepticism about our ability to compete. So a team that might have a pre-season range of 78-84 wins, like us, suffers some random bad luck and suddenly we’re at 72. That doesn’t render the pre-season skepticism moot because they, like everyone else, didn’t expect the wheels to fly off in April. For example, in BP’s preseason predictions our composite predicted finish was 4th. Ben Murphy picked us as the first NL team to “blast down to the foundations.”
I haven’t seen anyone, even the most skeptical DSers, suggest that the Padres should have had a plan that would have kept them competitive in the face of everything that went wrong from April 15th to now. It’s not unreasonable to fault them for not having a plan that would have mitigated the depth of that free-fall. There were also other options besides bringing back virtually the same team.
Crap, I’m typing so much I missed 2 Padre runs.
Brings home 2 and Barrett goes 1st to 3rd. Looks like a pretty well hit single for Edgar!
Nice sequence. Adrian single, Kouz HBP, Greene sac moved Adrian to third, Barrett walk, Edgar two-run single.
Wilezma with the Sac Bunt; here’s hoping Hairston can come through with a big 2 out knock.
#59@Kevin: Saturday, I think. After he’s “acclimated.”
Wow! According to Gameday/Pitchfx, those were 3 nasty pitches to Scott low and away. Tough break, but we do have the lead!
Hey, I gotta get to work, but y’all play nice this afternoon.
#69@Pat: It was hard hit to the first base side of the second baseman. He lunged for it but was still a good couple feet from it.
DS seems to have its tubes all clogged.
What the heck happened this year? The Padres won 89 games last season, increased payroll by 26% and turned into one of the worst teams in baseball?
Towers said Headley will be up in June, probably the first half of it, on the radio yesterday. Not that that’s surprising, but he did say it.
The slider away is not just Khalil’s poison.
Hairston’s splits this season are bizarre. Useless against LHP, hitting much better at home.
#78@Kevin: Do we have a date for when we could avoid Super Two with him?
#77@Schlom: That’s where I’d draw a distinction. They might have been a 3rd / 4th place team that could easily have won 75-856 games, and then we had a terrible 6 or 7 weeks (even before the pitching injuries). Random bad luck is magnified in shorter time frames. But I don’t think this team is in any way one of the worst teams in baseball, although they have played like it since mid-April.
#80@Phantom: I don’t know. I don’t think anyone knows. I don’t think teams sit back and guess on exact dates, because it depends on the call-ups of other players. I think they just wanted it to be after June 1.
Having said all that, I don’t understand most of it.
#80@Phantom: There’s no real accurate way to predict it; it depends on how much service time other players have. Anytime in June should be safe.
Super Two is less important than him not reaching free agency until after the 2013 season. That’s what burned the Mariners with Arod. Two pointless early callups cost them an entire season of their best player. Hard to imagine how many games that 2001 Seattle squad could have won with him at SS.
Thru 5 full …
Pitches-strikes – J Lannan 58-35; W Ledezma 86-51.
Ground balls-fly balls – J Lannan 6-2; W Ledezma 2-6.
Batters faced – J Lannan 19; W Ledezma 20.
… this bottom line looks OK for Ledezma … a few too many balls, I s’pose …
I noticed that Khalil has hit the ball to right field twice in his first two at bats and it seems like he’s been trying to go to right more often in the last few days. The overall results aren’t good, especially at Petco, but I’m guessing someone got through to him. If he’s looking to pull everything, he doesn’t have a chance at those low and outside sliders. And if he’s not hitting the ball to right field, there’s no reason for any pitcher to throw the ball middle to inner half against him. I’ve also noticed the same thing from Hairston lately, as well. He’s hit the ball hard to right field, mostly for long outs, but that will eventually force pitchers to come back in.
I’m guessing that it’s easy for a right-handed batter playing at Petco to fall into that habit since hitting the ball to right is almost always an automatic out.
#84@LynchMob: Ooops, that previous set of numbers did not yet include Lannan’s bottom of 5th … here’s thru 5 full …
Pitches-strikes – J Lannan 74-44; W Ledezma 86-51.
Ground balls-fly balls – J Lannan 6-5; W Ledezma 2-6.
Batters faced – J Lannan 24; W Ledezma 20.
#81@Tom Waits: See I’m kind of torn on this season. Ideally, I’d like to finish in last place so they can draft Steven Strasburg. But realistically, I don’t see how they can finish worse then the Giants, Nationals or Mariners. Plus the fact that Strasburg might get injured between now and there are no guarantees when the Padres draft players — they’d either pass on him or draft him and he’d immediately get injured. As I said, it’s probably not going to happen but it least it would give the fans some sort of interest the rest of the season.
Ledezma made it through five, with a lead. Good for him.
#61@Pat: Don’t look at me, I just work here.
#87@Schlom: I believe it was Mark Ase who brought up that it’s worse to win 75 games than 65, from the standpoint of the talent you can acquire. But the team still has to attract fans. Playoff appearances lead to season-ticket sales; losing 100 games does not.
Unlike you, I think the Padres would pop Strasburg in a heartbeat, regardless of bonus demands, assuming he has another strong season. That’s the kind of argument an executive like Alderson MUST be able to make to his boss.
Very small sample, but Brian Corey’s stats with the Padres are impressive, thus far.
0.93 ERA; 9.2 IP, ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K
The strike zone appears to have grown to the outside.
#91@JMAR: 2 k’s in 9 ip say that ERA is unsustainable.
Really, Cla? A four-pitch walk with a one-run lead? That seemed like a good idea to you?
Cla Meredith needs to be removed from the 7th inning role NOW
I can’t remember when he made it through a 7th without giving up a run.
So much for my Cla could be the future closer idea I floated before the Seattle series a couple weeks ago. Ever since he gave up that HR to Beltre, he’s been awful.
#93@Tom Waits: Of course an 0.93 ERA is unsustainable. It’s hard for even the greatest relievers to sustain a sub-2.00 ERA. However, with the way this bullpen has underachieved, it’s good to have a veteran like Corey come in and help solidify things. He’s only given up a run in 1 of 9 outings. As I’m writing this, Cla Meredith has given up another lead, damn it.
#95@Loren: Well, somebody has to pitch in the 7th. The bullpen is mostly long relievers. Maybe Corey.
#90@Tom Waits: Well, we would have thought that last season as well, right?
#97@JMAR: It’s the “stats are impressive” that I disagree with. His luck has been impressive.
Is a minor league veteran the same as a veteran? Dude’s got 68 major league innings and is nearly 35 years old.
98@ Tom Waits:
Corey or Adams, its obvious that Meredith has lost it and can’t go an appearence without giving up runs. He needs to go back to work seriously
#99@Schlom: Thought what? I would have drafted Porcello, but it’s a much easier argument when the target is a college pitcher from SD than a HS kid with a solid college commitment.
-I sense another 14+ inning affair coming on-
Yet another quality start for a Padres starter.
Yet another poor offensive showing……….
#101@Loren: A new face isn’t always a solution. Meredith has had a very bad week, no question. But from May 1 to May 18 he lowered his ERA by more than a run.
#89@Geoff Young: Touche. I’m working, too; I swear.
I wonder how many teams have had a pitching staff be stationed in the upper half of the league standings as far as stats (4.0-4.2 ERA) but yet be on pace to 100 losses ? This should tell you how sad this offense truly is.
Thus, how can we complain about Estes ? He is clearly not the problem.
**What a sensational catch by Langerhans **
#104@Tom Waits
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/gamelog?playerId=6269
Oh yeah between May 1-18 he lowered his ERA but since then he’s allowed 6 runs in 5 appearences.
In 07 he allowed 31 runs in 79.2 appearences, that’s 1 run every 2.55 appearences, this year in 24 appearences he’s allowing 12 runs. I’m sorry but Cla has absolutely tanked as of late, and if you think Hoffman’s scary as heck to watch in the 9th, dear G-d I panic when i see Cla coming in because he’s completely unreliable.
Damnit Langerhans!!!!!! Kouz got robbed
Do you bunt here to stay out of the double play?
Jody!
Obviously, no.
Was that a Petco Porch shot? Who has this on tv? Also, did Langerhans rob Kouz of a HR?
First in Diplomacy, First in Defense, Last in the National League East.
Thank you Jody Gerut for saving Cla Meredith’s backside
#100@Tom Waits: Let me re-phrase that for you then. An 0.93 ERA through 9.2 IP is impressive for a journeyman reliever who is nearly 35 years-old and has pitched on about 12 teams. Not a long-term answer but this bullpen just needs someone who can get outs.
Hold on, 3-Run HR by Gerut. Niiiiiiice!
Anyways, they are definitely missing the 7th inning guy they’ve had the last few years. I’d say Corey is probably our go-to-guy, at least for now.
I think it’s a little odd to single out Meredith as unreliable. He has had xFIP’s of 2.71, 3.01 & 3.34 the last three seasons.
Hoffy coming in? To face #s 5/6/7 … 6 will be PHer … with a 3-run lead … with a day of rest … I predict … success (ie. he’ll get the Save) …
#87@Schlom: You think finishing in last would give the fans some interest this year? Explain that one, please.
Is anyone actually watching this game? I’m listening on the radio. How did Hoffy look?
#116@Richard Wade: so you are playing the “small sample size” card? surely you’re not playing the “i’ve had fun watching his last couple of outings” card …
Does anyone else agree that Jody Gerut is a pretty damn good baseball player? He hits the ball hard, with some power. He’s fast. Good defender. I actually really like the Gerut/Hairston combo that will be our CF combo once Headley is recalled. Am I being too optimistic?
#119@Richard Wade: Looked good to me on Yahoo …
- T. Hoffman relieved H. Bell
- L. Milledge flied out to right
- R. Mackowiak hit for C. Manning
- R. Mackowiak struck out swinging
- E. Dukes grounded out to shortstop
#106@JP: The pitching stats look better than they are because of Petco; in honesty only 3 pitchers with substantial IP have been above-average. Then again, people complain about McAnulty and Gerut’s offense but Carlin is treated as the annointed one.
#107@Loren: That’s exactly the point. Relief pitchers are volatile. No one is saying he hasn’t been bad recently, but Hoffy and Bell both went through bad stretches. This, currently, is a bad stretch for Meredith. Why would 5-7 bad appearances in 2007 have more weight than very productive campaigns in 05 and 06? Especially when the players who would replace him are career minor league journeymen? I’m not opposed to shifting Meredith into a different role, but it’s likely that he’ll outpitch Adams and Corey anyway.
#121@JMAR: I like Jody Gerut. He won’t be an All-Star … but I’m with you that a team can win with him being a starting OFer … and that an OF of Headley + Gerut/Hairston + Giles will not inhibit this teams ability to win more games than they lose during the duration of 2008 …
#118@BigWorm: Only if they finish with the worst record in baseball so they can pick first in the 2009 Amateur Draft. Really, what’s the difference between 65 wins and 72? Not a whole lot.
123 Tom Waits
I concur with most of what you said: relief pitchers are volatile, Meredith has had two good seasons and is probably a better pitcher then Corey/Adams and that Meredith is going through a bad stretch. All that doesn’t change the fact that I feel incredibly uncomfortable right now giving the ball to Meredith in the 7th (or anytime otherwise) that the game is on the line. Meredith has something very wrong with him that he needs to fix. Until it is corrected, damnit, put him in a role where he won’t hurt us and let Corey/Adams/whomever step up and prove themselves. This is how Bell and Meredith and everyone else earned their stripes.
#115@JMAR: If we’re looking to predict future success, we need relievers with strong K numbers. Corey might pick things up, he’s only thrown 9 innings. But how you get outs is very predictive of how effective you’ll be in the future.
#121@JMAR: I have an unnatural fondness for Gerut, and he does seem to hit the ball hard. But I’d much rather have him as a 4th OF than a starter.
121; I haven’t seen ENOUGH out of Gerut to suggest he’s a damn good ball player, he has had limited time and with the exception fo today, hasn’t done much to show himself off. Still I do concur that he and Hairston (with one of the two coming in as a defensive replacement) is not a bad mix at all in the outfield.
What I like about Gerut/Hairston in CF is simply that they both seem to be bizarro-padres in that they seem to hit the ball when the rest of the team doesn’t, particularly coming up with big hits late in the game.
I have no stats to back up this assertion.
#126@Loren: I’m not qualified to say whether there’s something wrong with Meredith or not. Are his mechanics off? Is his pitch selection bad?
On a low-scoring team, every bullpen spot can hurt you. I don’t see any difference between giving up runs in the 5th and giving them up in the 7th. But I wouldn’t mind seeing Adams in more high-leverage situations; better numbers than Corey.
#127@Tom Waits: GB% and BB% are also predictive of future success.
Do you really think fans (average season-ticket holder type fans, not super-duper die-hards) will care that we get the first pick in the draft next year? Do you honestly believe that? If so, you are way off.
#127@Tom Waits:#128@Loren: If Gerut and Hairston were our 4th and 5th outfielders, I’d say our outfield would be in pretty good shape because that means we’d have three guys better than them and two capable defensive outfielders with speed and power coming off of the bench. With that said, I’m perfectly happy with an outfield of Headley, Gerut/Hairston, and Giles for 2008 unless they can somehow get a stud CF back in a trade.
#132@BigWorm: No kidding. This isn’t the NBA.
CNN (or was it FoxSports?) wrote yesterday that Peavy recently suggested the Padres pickup Kenny Lofton…
#132@BigWorm: I think many fans understand that very high draft pics are very valuable …
You didn’t say this, but neither did you specifically say what your post is in reference to … I presume is the question of 65 wins versus 75 wins … and I’d think that more fans would prefer 65 wins + 1st pick than 75 wins and 11th pick … if they were to actually think about it … don’t you?
Also, I’m not clear on the difference between a “season-ticket holder” and a “super-duper die-hard” … to me, if you’re a season-ticket holder, you’re pretty super-duper die-hard in my book …
#135@Marsh: iirc, Jake mentioned that a *long* time ago …
#116@Richard Wade: Cla’s overall numbers were OK last year but he was so bad early on that he lost the set-up man job. He was starting to look like the guy we saw in ‘06 a few weeks ago but he’s back to his 2007 form lately. Very frustrating.
If I remember correctly, the bullpen was most dominant when it had the Meredith-Linebrink-Hoffman combo in 2006. We definitely need a consistent 7th inning guy again. I’m not sure if they have that guy on their roster right now. By the way, I noticed Linebrink was back to his old form with an ERA in the low 1.00’s for the White Sox. Maybe he was hurt last season?
#131@Richard Wade: Yes, but K/9 is more important than either. And it’s not that Corey won’t strike out more in the future, but so far he’s been a lot luckier than good.
#136@Lynch: A couple of points: Yes, I would prefer 65 wins and the #1 pick over 75 wins and the #11 pick if the #1 pick was such a known quantity that we knew we were getting at least a #3 starter / stud position player. We don’t. In six months, we might understand a little better what we are getting, but more than likely it will be this time next year that we really understand what our pick is getting us. And even then, it isn’t netting us a step-right-into-the-rotation guy. The MLB draft never does, it just takes too long to develop.
Second, most fans of the team are more likely to remember Matt Bush than they are to get excited about the #1 pick. Our FO hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire in the last 5 drafts. Your non-Ducksnorts-type fan doesn’t want high draft picks and probably couldn’t pick any of our minor leaguers out of a two-man lineup.
Third, super-duper fan would refer to your average ducksnorts daily visitor. We follow the minor-league guys, know who is available in this years AND next years draft, etc. . .Your average season-ticket holder is a upper-middle class baseball fan who likes taking his family to the games and enjoys baseball. They may know Headley and Antonelli and Mat Latos, but they are certainly not going to hope for four more months of futility to nab a guy who could potentially start for the Padres in 2011.
#138@JMAR: I said this long ago about sidearm pitchers: They are good for one maybe two seasons in one division. After that, EVERYBODY has got their number. Sidearmers are limited to the number of types of pitches they can throw simply because of the angle of the release. I didn’t want Cla in 2K6 and I don’t want him now.
Schlom, can you please show me where you said (prior to last season) that we should take a chance on Josh Hamilton? Hind sight is 20/20 and it’s pretty easy to say that now. Did you think Dewon Brazelton was going to work out? He was a former #1 pick who had a ton of potential.
#141@Turbine Dude: You keep saying that despite people showing you several sidearm pitchers who were good for longer than two seasons in the same league.
#140@BigWorm: I agree that most fans don’t care about the baseball draft, but there’s no greater difference in value than that between the 1st overall pick and every other one. If people want talent in the organization, drafting high is a great way to get it. Unfortunately it means you have to lose games.
#141@Turbine Dude:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/t/tekulke01.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/q/quiseda01.shtml
… good for one maybe two seasons? I’m just sayin’ “not always”
#141@Turbine: I agree with not wanting Cla in 2006. . .who would want a guy with a 1.07 ERA, 37 K’s against 6 BB’s in 50 innings?
#141@Turbine Dude: Yeah, pitchers with funky deliveries are usually successful as rookies but struggle once hitters figure them out. Some have gone on to have great careers (Tekulve and Quisenberry are the most famous) but a lot of them come and go pretty quickly.
I really think this year’s version will be Carlos Guevara, who should be up soon. He’s not a side-armer but he’s a right-hander who throws a screwball, which I’m not sure I’ve ever seen. He hasn’t given up an earned run in AAA during his rehab. It seems like he’ll be tough to hit the first few times around the league.
#143@Tom Waits: to be fair, TD has admitted that his feelings about side-armers are a bit on the irrational side … at least I think I remember him admitting that … did you, TD? but then I do gotta side with TW that leading with “I said this long ago about sidearm pitchers” does seem to void that caveat …
Bottom Line: smells like a dead horse to me … and we’ve had plenty o’ them today …
#143@Tom: “There is no greater difference in value than that between the 1st overall pick and every other one”.
That’s just not true. Not even close. Every draft is different. Some drafts may have one guy who is head and shoulders above everyone else. Some may have five guys who are tightly bunched, and any one would be a great first pick. Some may have two guys who are neck and neck.
I know absolutely nothing about next years draft, but I’m guessing that there are some other guys who have talent close to the kid at State. If not, if he is a Mark Prior or an A-Rod and the next guys are Mark Vanderwals, then I am all for losing 130 games this year.
#139@Tom Waits: No argument on any of those points. I wasn’t actually responding specifically about Corey anyway, just making the more general point about evaluating pitchers.
#148@BigWorm: It’s true most years.
#140@BigWorm: I must be that unsophisticated type of fan, because I believe it is always better to win than lose. While there may be times that you are building rather than reaping, the mindset of everyone in the organization should be winning.
#148@BigWorm: You are way off on this one. The number one pick is far and away the most valuable pick in the draft and it’s not even particularly close. I’ll try to find the article but Baseball Prospectus studied the relative value of the picks and you’d be surprised at how much more valuable the #1 pick was vs. the #2 (and on down).
#142@BigWorm: I never said that the Padres should have picked up Josh Hamilton, just that he was out there. Obviously someone knew that he’d have some value, unfortunately it wasn’t the Padres.
#132@BigWorm: Obviously I’d rather make the playoffs. But if the choice was 65 wins and the first pick and 75 wins and the fifth, I’d rather them finish with 65. I’m not sure everyone would agree but I suspect that those who’d rather see the 75 wins won’t go to the games anyway so what does it matter?
#150@Richard: No, it’s not. Show me the last 10 years, 20 years, 30 years of #1 picks vs. #2 – #5 picks and you will see plenty of #1 flame-outs, and probably similar statistics from those 5 spots. Yes, you have your A-Rods and Mark Priors. But you also have plenty of Matt Bush’s, Bryan Bullingtons, Matt Andersons, and Paul Wilsons.
It’s hard to look at it like that because clearly (especially lately), teams have drafted more towards signability than talent. But still, if you were able to identify the #1 most talented guy (at the time of the draft) and the next four guys after him I’m guessing you would see a small difference in their major league careers.
#148@BigWorm: No, it’s absolutely true. Rany Jazayerli did an exhaustive study of the draft. You can find it on Baseball Prospectus under “Doctoring the Numbers.” The difference between the 1st overall pick and any other pick represents the greatest gap in value. Here’s a quote:
“Historically, the #1 overall pick has returned at least 40% more value than any other draft slot. After the first pick, the typical return on a draft pick falls 4-5% per slot until approximately the 40th pick, and then drops by a little over 1% per slot until pick #100.”
That doesn’t mean you can’t find great players later, or that 1st rounders don’t bust (Batt Mush). But why would you bet on outliers when the evidence tells you that you’re throwing away 40%?
#148@BigWorm: OK, found the article. I think it’s a subscriber only page but here’s the link:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4026
It has some charts (I’d e-mail them to anyone who wants them) and some general conclusions. Here is the main one:
Draft Rule #1: The greatest difference in value between consecutive draft picks is the difference between the first and second picks in a draft.
“The typical #1 overall pick is worth more than 46 WARP in the first 15 years of his career; no other draft slot comes within even 10 wins of that total. Just as importantly, the benefits of the #1 overall pick do not extend to the #2 pick; in fact, historically, the #2 pick has been worth slightly less than the #3 and #4 picks, and from that point random variation kicks in and strongly influences the downward progression for the rest of the first round.”
#148@BigWorm: I think there are usually a few guys who stand out above the others. No baseball amateur can be considered ‘can’t miss’, but there usually are a few who are pretty close. With that said, it probably doesn’t make a difference if the Padres pick 1 or 10 because they are always ‘financially responsible’ and will not pick the best player if his contract demands exceed their budget. My point is, if they pick first, they’d probably pick the same guy they could get if picking at #15.
Either way, speaking as a ’super-duper fan’ who follows the minor league system religiously, I still am one happy Padre fan whenever they win, no matter how bad the team is.
Football is a different story. When the Chargers are bad, I actually hope they end up with the worst record because the #1 pick in the NFL is more valuable and can be traded. They traded two #1 picks for LT, Phillip Rivers, Merriman, Kaeding, and those guys helped right away.
Different story in baseball. I’m not hoping my team loses so they can maybe draft the best player who they might be able to sign so he might be able to help the team in a few years.
#147@LynchMob: You are correct. And most of my thoughts on the subjuct are based mainly on my own personal feelings rather than any stats. I’ll freely admit that.
OT: I’m in this blog everyday during the IGD except when I’m at work, I’ve have a T. Gwynn brick, and will attent 20 or so games this season regardless of their record. Am I an ‘Average Fan’ or a ‘Super Duper Fan?’ I need some clarification on this.
#151@Field: Don’t get me wrong, I’m not calling you unsophisticated. I 100% agree with you, the big league club should always be focused on winning unless they are in such a small market that winning every year is just not feasibly possible. The Padres should be focused on the playoffs every year. This year, it’s not going to happen and I would be fine if they cut bait and moved towards winning next year. I am not fine with them losing games SOLELY to pick up the #1 pick next year.
#152@Schlom: I would love to read that BP article, please find it. I’m guessing that the data has some serious outliers, like A-Rod and Ken Griffey, but even so I would bet that the difference is not as great as you are making it out to be. . .probably minimal.
You are also making it sound like the Padres only have two choices – 75 wins and a 5 – 15 pick, or 65 wins and the #1 pick. Obviously, given the choice between the two I would prefer the latter, as long as it comes with trades and moves to make the team competitive next year. If we lose more games, get the #1 pick and get stuck with this same lineup, I won’t be happy.
As down on Jody Gerut as I am (although I’d certainly wouldn’t mind if he’s the 4th outfielder) it could be worse, the Mets and their $137m payroll are starting Fernando Tatis at LF tonight against the Dodgers (and Endy Chavez in RF). Looks like both NY GM jobs are going to open this upcoming off-season.
#152@Schlom: I would honestly rather win 75 games.
#158@BigWorm: It’s in #155.
I understand what you are saying, in that you don’t want them to obviously punt the season — I don’t think anyone wants that. The problem is that obviously, the Padres aren’t going to make the playoffs this season. So what should be the goal the rest of the season? Bring up the young players, even the ones that aren’t ready, and have them learn on the job? But then you’d be starting their arbitration clocks and free agency clocks earlier then you should. In that case, signing players like Estes, Ledezma and Gerut is good business sense and good baseball sense.
Teams have a fine line between contending and rebuilding — rare is the team like the A’s this season that do both. Look at the Rays, they are in great shape at the moment but it took 10 years of losing to put this team together. We don’t want the Padres to do that. Our best case scenario was something like the Cardinals this season — unfortunately we got unlucky with our scrap heap pickups or acquired the wrong players.
#158@BigWorm: No one’s suggesting they punt the season. But the research says what it says. Arod and Griffey aren’t outliers, they were legitimately terrific talents who were picked first. Bush would be an outlier, but he wasn’t part of the study.
Yes, the worst-case scenario would be to lose 92 games and get stuck picking 8th.
The difference between football and baseball isn’t only that football rookies are expected to contribute immediately. It’s also that “your” football team plays once a week, for 3.5 or 4 hours. Even a bad football season, call it 5-11, represents 44 hours of pain. A baseball team that loses 100 games puts its fans through a much worse grind. Day after day after day it’s bad baseball.
re: Hamilton
Sure, the Reds took a shot on him, and it worked out.
But no team, no thinking team, thought he had a shot paying off. He was done. “Real Sports” did a story on him late in the 2006 season. In that piece, scouts said it’s nice that he has turned is life around, but he’s not a prospect. Not even close.
He returned to baseball in 2006. That season in 50 at-bats in rookie ball, he was bad — .687 OPS. In 2007, he was great in 40 at-bats in Triple-A — 1.097. Not a great sample size. Not even the Reds could have thought he would tear it up in the majors.
Oops, you beat me to it.
Alright, three things: First, I’m not a BP subscriber. Second, 46 WARP over 15 years doesn’t sound like a whole lot to me but I’m not the most sophisticated stats guy.
Third, I’m getting pulled WAY far away from my point, which isn’t to argue the merits of the 1st vs. the 2nd pick. My point was that by rooting for the Padres to lose so that they get the kid from State (which I am not saying anyone is doing), you are betting on an unknown quantity. You are betting that they A) lose enough to finish last and B) the kid from State does not get hurt / flame out / whatever else that is bad could happen.
One more thing: Can someone certify that the kid from state is head and shoulders above whoever the next guy would be? Or that he is even the #1 talent?
#160@Richard Wade: Any particular reason? Just the general embarrassment of finishing with the worst record in baseball or figuring that even if they do have the first pick they’d probably screw it up anyway? Or the fact that the team should try to win as many games as possible during the current season and not worry about future seasons?
#152@Schlom: Who were we going to trade for Hamilton? Maybe Cincy would have gone for Chris Young, if they weren’t worried about his flyball tendencies in that park. But we didn’t have an arm like Volquez to give up.
Young might have been worth it, if we’d gone after a free agent arm to replace him.
#165@Schlom: A team should always try to win every game. If not, why play? Do you really want your favorite team to tank or not try? That’s abhorrent. That’s why the lottery started in the NBA. So no team is assured of the No. 1 pick.
I would consider switching teams if I thought the Padres were trying to do that.
#166@Tom Waits: I think he’s talking about when the Reds signed Hamilton after he was off drugs.
#163@Kevin: Gerut had 170 at-bats at the big league level and 48 at-bat in the minors in 2005 and didn’t play at all in 2006-2007. OK, that’s slightly more then Hamilton played the 3 previous season before the Reds acquired him in the Rule V draft before the 2006 season but not a lot more. Considering his greater pedigree and potential (although admittedly as a drug addict he might have been too much of a pain in the a**) if you are going to gamble with Jody Gerut why wouldn’t you gamble on Josh Hamilton. It’s not like it would have cost anything.
#164@BigWorm: Here’s a question from an espn.com chat with Baseball America’s Jim Callis:
Nuke (By The Bay): Jim- If Stephen Strasburg were in this draft, where do you think he’d go? How does he compare to Matusz and Crow?
SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:19 PM ET ) Strasburg, who’s only a sophomore at San Diego State, would be in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick. He’d rate ahead of Brian Matusz and Aaron Crow, the top two pitching prospects in this draft.
#165@Schlom: Short answer: I prefer winning to losing.
Longer answer: I think there has to be a balance between planning/playing for the future versus the present. I’d rather see the Padres play at as high a level as possible. If you finish with 75 wins after rebounding in the second half of the season, that’s something to build on for next year. Also, since the Padres don’t have the worst team in baseball they’d have to get worse to finish with the worst record in baseball and I’m not particularly fond of that idea.
#169@Schlom: I don’t think we had one of the top two picks in that year’s Rule 5 draft and Hamilton was picked third. What’s your point?
#169@Schlom: Hamilton was coming off a heroin addiction and had not played professional baseball for three seasons and had never played major league baseball.
You don’t take a chance on him for the same reason no one took a chance on Brien Taylor three years after he was in baseball. Another No. 1 pick with troubles. That’s why no other team beisdes the Reds thought it was a good idea.
I’m not saying picking up Gerut was the greatest move ever. But you are ripping the front office for taking a chance on a 750,00 to 1 shot instead of a 1 million to 1 shot or vice versa. It doesn’t matter.
That’s what makes Hamilton story so great: If the Reds made the same move a million times, it might work out a few times.
#167@Kevin: That’s certainly not true. Why do pitchers have pitch counts? Why did they put Peavy on the DL? All decisions have to be balanced against how they would effect the future.
#166@Tom Waits: I was talking about the 2006 Rule V draft. The Cubs took Hamilton 3rd and then he was sold to the Reds for cash. I’d forgotten that a main reason he missed from 2003-2006 was because he was suspended by either the team (2003) or MLB (2004-June 2006).
#163@Kevin: Hamilton’s a phenomenal story. He still needs to stay healthy, and it’s not like Cincy got jobbed with Volquez. But that’s immense talent to do what he’s done after basically not playing for years.
#164@BigWorm: Are people pulling you away from your point? Because when the research says there’s a huge gap in value between the first pick and every other pick, and you reply with “That’s just not true. Not even close,” it sounds like that IS your point.
It’s not getting the kid from SDSU that would be important. It’s getting the 1st pick, which might or might not be used on him. Right now he’s considered the top talent for the 2009 draft. The reason many here talk about him, besides his being an Aztec, is that he might be the rare #1 pick on talent who the Padres wouldn’t need to go to extravagant lengths to sign. Over slot, almost surely, but maybe not record-breaking.
#171@Richard Wade: Since he was traded for cash it didn’t matter where you picked.
#172@Kevin: Hamilton and Taylor aren’t quite the same thing since Taylor shredded his pitching arm — there was no red flags on Hamilton on strictly a performance issue (he injured his knee that prematurely ended his 2006 season but that’s not really that big of a deal).
Honestly, I probably wouldn’t have picked up either but as I said, if you are going to gamble on someone who had missed significant time over the past few seasons, wouldn’t you want the guy with the huge potential.
Personally, I’d like to ask Towers if he ever thought of picking up Hamilton and his reasoning behind his decision. And then the same thing with for Jody Gerut. I think that’s a fair question to ask.
#168@Kevin: Yeah.
#167@Kevin: That should be modified by circumstance. I thought it was near criminal of Baker to throw Volquez on Sunday. It might have been his throw day, but pitching in a game is different than throwing on the side, and it’s a tilt between two last place teams. It’s a golden arm.
#170@Richard Wade: Not sure I buy that teams “build on” past seasons. What I’d hope for is they use the rest of 2008 (barring a miracle comeback) to find out which players could help next year, while protecting players like Peavy and Young. Might as well save some mileage on those arms. Seems to me the Padres future would be best served by trading players like Maddux, Wolf, Iguchi, Barrett, etc., who would help the team get to 75 wins this year but be gone the next.
#176@Tom Waits: At the same time I don’t think that the Padres should rush anyone. They certainly shouldn’t bring up Antonelli — if he’s not ready for the majors they should leave him down in the minors which it financially advantageous. Same thing with the younger pitchers although I’d probably bring up Leblanc and Geer as they are older and probably can’t learn that much more in Triple A.
#174@Tom: You are correct, I did state that. It was about 40 posts down from my original point which I was trying to get back to. I never wanted to get into an argument over the merits of the #1 vs. the #2 pick. Just the merits of hoping the club finished in last place so they could get the #1 pick. In fact, my original point was that the vast majority of fans won’t give a hoot if we get the #1 pick in the draft, but the two were related.
If you somehow missed that then I’m sorry you picked up my posts 3/4 of the way through a conversation. Try starting at the beginning next time. I specifically stated that I would prefer winning 65 games and getting the #1 pick if that pick was a known quantity. At this time it isn’t.
No one answered my other question – how significant is the difference? 46 (?) WARP over 15 years. . .is that a lot? I honestly don’t know.
re: Hamilton
I know he had lots of talent. But what chances do you think he had of paying off when the Reds picked him up?
#173@Schlom: That has little to do with what I said. I don’t they should throw Peavy or Young when they are not ready.
But the suggestion seems to be the Padres should lose 100 or more games on purpose or by trading away every player worth anything — except for Peavy and Gonzalez — for better draft position. I would rather have Kouzmanoff than whoever the No. 1 is going to be, because no one is a sure thing.
#178@BigWorm: Your inability to stay on topic is not my responsibility. How many times did you cast doubt on the difference in value between picks? You’re now attempting to insult me because I actually FOLLOWED your posts rather than paying attention only to one? Good one.
If you can’t be bothered to read the other research people have posted, don’t expect me to point out what WARP is. It ain’t that hard to figure out. Try starting at Baseball Prospectus.
#176@Tom Waits: I think my statement in 167 is being really misunderstood. Baker treated that game like it was Game 7 of the World Series.
Baker should be fired about five reasons this year, anyway.
I was responding to the implication that the Padres should go for a big losing seaon either by trying to do so or trading away a bunch of good players. To see that as letting Peavy throw 120 pitches every four days is silly.
AP notes: Padres right-hander Chris Young, whose nose was broken by a line drive by Albert Pujols on May 21, was scheduled to see a doctor on Thursday afternoon. Manager Bud Black said the main concern is with a small fracture in Young’s skull. Black also said Young will probably need surgery to straighten his septum. … The Padres tied a franchise record with 15 home runs in the homestand, which lasted 10 games. They had 15 homers in a homestand twice before, both lasting 11 games.
#181@Tom: I never said that was your responsibilty. I tried to steer the conversation back towards my original point. You in turn tried to state that my original point was something other than it really was. I’m sorry you can’t wrap your head around that one.
And I never asked what WARP is, I asked how significant that number was – 46 WARP over 15 years. Seriously, do I need to spell out every single one of my posts for you?
#182@Kevin: I figured that’s what you meant, just wanted a little clarity. Teams should always try to win without being self-defeating. And again, I don’t think anybody is saying the team should deliberately lose games. But if they can bring in talent by trading away veterans, and then lose more 2008 games than they would have by keeping them, they have to do it. Not to get a prime draft pick, just for the players they’d get in trade.
#185@Tom Waits: Sure, I can see that. But this season still has to be sort of tryout time for some. A lot of people wanted to trade Kouzmanoff for a bag of balls last month.
#184@BigWorm: Again, if it was your main point, don’t wander off and then cry that people “pulled” you off-course. To be clear, I asked “Are people pulling you away from your point?” which is a request for clarification, because if that was so, it seemed that you’d changed tacks. Then you threw a tantrum about me not paying attention. If I hadn’t been paying attention, I wouldn’t have asked the question.
If you understood what WARP was, you’d understand whether 46 WARP is significant or not. So again, look to yourself before looking to others. Put another way, ask yourself if the problem is that other people can’t understand, or that you’re not being clear.
Now I’m off to watch Jack, Kate, Sawyer, et al. Feel free to complain that somehow my decision to watch TV is a misinterpretation of your stance on pitcher values or sacrifice bunts.
#123@Tom Waits: Backup catchers seem to get away with the no hit, good defense tag. Carlin is obviously not a major league hitter –notice how late he is on a major league fastball ? You simply don’t see many major league hitters get blown away that easily with a 89-90 mph.
In honor of the AWESOMENESS that is Lost, I’m neither reading nor responding to any further comments in this thread, and I apologize for brawling with BigWorm on a day when the Padres won in thrilling fashion and JJ Abrams proves that he doesn’t always forget his path.
#187@Tom: Too funny. Ooooh, yay, a pissing match! I’ll play!
“Crying”? “Throwing a tantrum”? I think you need to re-read your posts and see if those phrases apply. Here is a hint – they do.
Like I said, the conversation took a turn and I tried to move it back to my original point. You then stated that my original point was something other than it really was. If you STILL don’t understand that, then I give up. Seriously, I give up.
And I don’t even know why we are arguing about this – we agree on the original point for the most part. I agree that the Padres should trade vets and play for next year. Isn’t that the gist of the conversation?
Understanding what WARP is and knowing whether or not 46 WARP over 15 years is significant are not the same. Do you understand how points are kept in a basketball game? Could you tell me how significant player A scoring 5,000 more points than player B over the length of their careers is? Not a perfect analogy, but it works. . .
Honestly dude, take a step away from the computer, take a deep breath, think of your happy place. . .we have ended up arguing about what we were arguing about. And sorry if this sound like I am “crying” about getting off topic.
#189@Tom Waits, #190@BigWorm: No pissing matches in my house. Please take this off line.
.296/.391/.424 OPS+ 125
.305/.407/.422 OPS+ 115
OG’s and Fukudome’s lines are very similar.
All chill…..OT
Lakers win. I grew up there. Sorry but it’s in my genes. GY: Feel free to delete my comment. No worries.
Later
OK, guys.
Here’s WARP. It’s not that hard to find. Now, make nice.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Wins_Above_Replacement_Player
BTW, a review of 2007 draft.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/around_the_minors/