I don’t ordinarily like to start the week with a mailbag, but today’s letter is so passionate, it really can’t wait any longer. Regular reader Jeff #287 writes:

Real quick… well, I probably won’t be, but about [Rey] Ordonez. You say you’re not as upset as you feel maybe you should be. I think you really should be, I’m downright PO’d at the signing. What bothers me: KT said in the SDUT (in not so many words) that even if Khalil plays better than Ordonez, but at about the level of Vazquez, which is to be expected with a rookie competing for his first ST ever, Khalil goes to Portland. I am of the firm belief that Khalil’s play in September earned him the right to start at the MLB level this season. But that’s not the only thing; if we’d brought in some competition that had the opportunity to outplay Khalil, I’d be ok with this: still not like it, but be ok. Numbers: .258/.319/.317. That’s Ordonez’s career best full season. I see no reason to believe Khalil [won't] meet [this] (and crush that SLG%) with an average rookie campaign. And we’ve seen Bochy with Vazquez; if it’s Ordonez and Vazquez on the club, you know who’ll start.

So we’ve signed our starting day shortstop for the San Diego Padres 2004, in my eyes: and it’s Rey f’in Ordonez. Bochy will love his intangibles, and gritty play, and that stuff that doesn’t show up in stats, and Khalil will be robbed of his rookie season. IMHO, this signing is the worst thing to come of this offseason. We certainly can afford a weak bat and solid defensive shortstop with this lineup. It’s just a shame it won’t be Khalil Greene.

Passionate. We like passionate.

Jeff actually sent this in several days ago, and I’ve been thinking about it a great deal since then. Here’s my take. With the move into a new stadium, the Padres are no longer in "rebuild mode" and are gunning for short-term success or, failing that, the appearance that they at least tried to win this year.

Rightly or wrongly, bringing in Ordonez to compete for a starting job helps accomplish the latter. He is a name with a terrific defensive reputation. He’s signed to a minor-league deal so there’s not a lot of downside in that regard (other than taking time from Khalil Greene and Ramon Vazquez).

It’s pretty clear after last season that the Padres (again, rightly or wrongly) do not view Vazquez as a bona fide big-league shortstop. I’m of the opinion that they have been a little hasty in reaching that conclusion, but my opinion doesn’t count for much.

It’s also evident that Greene is viewed as the shortstop of the future. The only open question is when that future begins. I’m not certain that 65 at-bats is enough to say one way or another whether someone has earned the right to start at the MLB level, but I am comfortable saying that Greene has earned the right to compete for a starting job.

In my book, if Greene outplays the other two guys, he’s the starter. Vazquez backs up all over the infield and Ordonez starts at Portland, making a handy insurance policy. If, on the other hand, Greene scuffles this spring, what’s the rush? Whoever ends up at shortstop is going to bat in the #8 hole and make a lot of outs. Why not let Greene get a little more seasoning at Triple-A?

That’s if Greene struggles. If he doesn’t, then the future begins now. I’m not convinced that Ordonez as starter is a foregone conclusion. I believe that he’s been brought into compete for the job, nothing more. It’s possible I’m being naive here, but I expect the Padres think more highly of Greene than to reject the possibility of his starting for the big-league club before spring training has even begun.

This is why I don’t see a lot of downside. Either Greene wins the job in spring, in which case the "problem" is solved. Or he doesn’t, and the Pads have two other guys with big-league experience at shortstop (I would probably platoon the two, but this is yet another instance where my opinion doesn’t count for much). Meantime, Greene gets his at-bats at Portland and takes over the job next year, or possibly even later this summer.

I think the fact that the Padres weren’t players for guys like Rich Aurilia, Kaz Matsui, or Miguel Tejada speaks volumes about their opinion of Greene and how close to big-league ready he is. Ordonez is an insurance policy, and a cheap one at that.

As for what each player brings to the table offensively, I wouldn’t expect a whole lot from either. Ordonez showed unprecedented signs of life last year with the Devil Rays before getting hurt. It is possible (though at his age, not probable) that he’s finally learned how to hit a little.

I’m playing around with a very crude projection system (your basic three-year average, with performance trending and age coefficients thrown in) and Ordonez comes out at .262/.292/.362. That seems a tad high to me (which in itself is kinda pathetic), but not unreasonable. I don’t have enough data points to make a projection for Greene, but my WAG is that he’ll hit about like 1989 Kevin Elster (.231/.283/.360), with a best case being something like 1998 Aurilia (.266/.319/.407). Neither one of those is likely to make a huge positive impact relative to what Ordonez offers.

Even if Ordonez hits .248/.291/.311 (his career average) and we assume that Greene would’ve hit like 1998 Aurilia if given the chance, how much of a difference would that make? Using an an incredibly simplified version of runs created, that’s about 24 runs over the course of a season assuming 600 at-bats. What is that, about two or three wins? Not a huge difference, and that’s assuming Greene’s best case and Ordonez’ average output.

Greene has upside that Ordonez can only dream of, but the bottom line is that the Pads aren’t going to get much production from their shortstop this year. Whether they’re not getting it from Greene or from Ordonez isn’t all that important in the long run. If Greene wins the job in spring, great. If not, no big deal. The critical thing to me isn’t how quickly Greene cracks the starting lineup, but ensuring that once he does, he stays there for a long time. Whatever presents the best opportunity for that to happen is okay with me.

That said, I hope Greene kicks some serious tail in Peoria and establishes himself now. I’m excited about his future, and I’d love to see him starting at Petco this year. But if that doesn’t happen right away, it’s not the end of the world.

Other News

• Petco Park will present challenges for players (NC Times). Balls are flying out down the left field line and dying in right-center. Debate rages as to whether Petco will be more of a hitters’ park or favor the pitchers. Also up in the air is which corners Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko patrol in the outfield. Early indications are that right field will be the more demanding position, which would make sticking Giles there a sensible move. The one thing everyone seems to agree on is the excitement about getting to play in a new park.
• Plate appearance distribution by age, 2003 Fascinating stuff here. The Padres gave 55.4% of their plate appearances to players under 30, slightly below the big-league average of 58.6%.
• Current Minor League Equivalent Averages (Baseball Prospectus). This actually has been out there for a while, but I just stumbled onto it. The file is huge and takes some time to load if you’re on dialup like I am. But there is all kinds of great information here.