first pitch: 9:35 a.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Tim Stauffer (big-league debut) vs Paul Wilson (1-3, 7.25 ERA)
Brian Lawrence’s road struggles continued Tuesday, as the Pads were unable to overcome their second straight 5-1 defecit in the ninth. More poor baserunning and lack of clutch hitting were contributing factors, as were the decisions to have Dave Roberts pinch hit for Xavier Nady and Ryan Klesko not pinch hit for Damian Jackson in the ninth.
Wednesday sees Tim Stauffer make his big-league debut. Those in the San Diego area who are looking forward to watching him pitch will have to wait, as the game is not being broadcast on local television. As for Stauffer, here’s what he’s done leading up to this:
IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
college 346.0 2.16 7.08 0.36 2.00 9.42
minors 206.2 2.79 8.75 0.83 2.44 6.27
I looked through an old dataset to see if I could find any current big leaguers with similar minor league numbers. Unfortunately, the list was littered with names like Willie Adams, Joel Adamson, Matt Drews, Robert Toth, and Bret Wagner. I did manage to find one guy, and it’s kinda funny because you’d be hard pressed to come up with a pitcher whose style is any less like Stauffer’s:
IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Esteban Yan 379.2 3.15 8.70 0.52 2.16 6.16
I don’t know how much faith I have in this comp, but there it is. FWIW, Yan has had very mixed success in the big leagues.
If there’s one concern I have in looking at Stauffer’s line, it’s undoubtedly the low strikeout numbers. From that same dataset, the most successful big-league pitchers who punched out fewer than 7 per 9 innings as minor leaguers have been Terry Adams, Brian Boehringer, Jim Brower, Paul Byrd, Chris Carpenter, Mike DeJean, Elmer Dessens, John Frascatore, Jim Mecir, Bill Simas, and Donne Wall. Some pretty useful arms in that group but, with the possible exception of Carpenter, no real impact guys.
On the other hand, this is but one dataset and every case is different. I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade – obviously we’re all hoping Stauffer succeeds (and statistical comps tell us nothing about a player’s makeup; by all accounts, Stauffer’s is off the charts) – just trying to keep our expectations in check. With all the talk of curses and such, the last thing anyone needs to do is build this kid up as an ace. Let him go out and do his job, and see where it goes from there.
Speaking of expectations, the pitcher Stauffer will face in his big-league debut is former Mets #1 draft pick and phenom Paul Wilson. A much more highly regarded prospect in his day than Stauffer is now, Wilson has overcome serious injuries to become a decent – if expensive – option at the back end of a rotation. He is coming off a game in which all eight batters he faced reached base and scored. Getting healthy against the Pads may prove tricky:
AB BA OBP SLG
Wilson vs current Padres 69 .420 .494 .826
Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko have 20 plate appearances between them against Wilson; seven of those have resulted in home runs.
Again, the game starts at 9:35 a.m. PT and is not being televised in San Diego. Feel free to chat as you follow the action online; if anyone is catching some other video feed, maybe you can let us know how Stauffer looks.
165 Comments
Interesting post on Stauffer comps, Geoff. Only one minor quibble – are you sure Klesko was available for pinch-hitting duty? I heard he had lower back problems and was given a day. Do you have any better information?
I saw that Klesko was held out with lower back problems and will likely miss Wednesday’s game as well.
http://padres.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20050510&content_id=1045124&vkey=news_sd&fext=.jsp&c_id=sd
Looking forward to Stauffer. I think the Reds’ network is carrying the game on FSN, but if not maybe MLBtv will do the same thing as the Pads/Rocks last week: ballpark feed with radio.
Good to see there was a reason Klesko wasn’t used for a reason.
Richard, were you being redundant on purpose, Richard?
Thanks for the info on Klesko, guys. That’s a shame he’s going to miss today’s game. His numbers against Wilson are just ridiculous (.538/.600/1.769).
Then again, ESPN has him batting third:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview?gameId=250511117
Those numbers will make a guy’s back feel better.
What, then, is the excuse for playing Phil Nevin yesterday, who (according to the radio boys) couldn’t even turn his head because his neck hurt so bad? If only the Padres had a backup who had been murdering the ball lately…oh, wait, they do! And if you don’t want to start Sweeney against a lefty starter yesterday, why not rest Nevin today? As nice as it is to be a ‘gamer’, playing while hurt (and leaving two guys on 3B with less than two outs in his first two ABs yesterday) doesn’t help him or the club.
I’m here watching the game on mlb.tv at work, again. I’m so bad. I won’t be watching every pitch, obviously, but I’ll try to give my impressions on Stauffer.
This is a promising start. Well it was before Klesko k’d.
This is a promising start. Well it was before Klesko k’d.
Sorry for the double post.
Giles is hitting everything lately. That pitch looked like it was at the letters.
It appears that this game is not on Reds TV, so we are seeing the raw feed from the ballpark since I am now watching Kiss Cam
Freel leaned into that one.
Not the start Timmy wanted. 2 run homer.
HBP, HR, BB, 2B…
Still not any better, that double by Griffey puts runners at 2nd and 3rd with still no one out. Stauffer is not getting them to chase anything and is leaving his fastball over the plate. His curve is missing badly.
HBP
Another HBP. Bases loaded.
Radio guys are saying he can’t get on top of his breaking ball and is just flipping it up there.
Oh for a comebacker…
Double play!
Yeah that’s pretty accurate. He is missing badly with his offspeed stuff and then is just grooving his fastballs to make up for it.
What’d that play look like?
Nice double play. No time to let up though.
Only gave up two? How did that happen?
Ground ball to Burroughs just to the right of the bag. He fielded it, stepped on third for one and then they got the runner going home in a rundown.
Hopefully for us, Wilson doesn’t look much better.
I have to hand it to Freel for getting that inning going. The pitch that hit him was not that far inside, Freel turned is back and it hit him in the arm. Puts a runner on and rattles the youngster with his location.
Damn nice play by Randa.
my connection is painfully flaky. What was the 3rd out? sportsline game center is saying triple play, Griffey out at 3rd.
There was no triple play. Third out was a line out to Loretta at second.
2 out double by Roberts puts runners at 2nd and 3rd. Let’s see if Loretta can get those runs back for Tim.
Wilson’s not fooling anyone.
Cincy’s offense came into the game with the most strikeouts of any NL team, 264, and the fourth-highest (12) and, after the first inning now tied for Florida with the third-highest number of HBP, 14. Kid’s just got to calm down. He’ll be fine. First time out, a pitcher either lights up the opposition or gets waxed. Stauffer got out of that mess with just two runs. Let’s see what happens.
Much better second, but still missing a bit with his location.
Freel will be interesting. Let’s see how aggressively Stauffer goes after the first batter he ever faced (and hit) in the bigs….
Now, that’s why you draft a kid fourth overall. Didn’t give up an inch and sat Freel down looking.
First inning:
27 pitches = 14 strikes + 13 balls
Second inning:
15 pitches = 9 strikes + 6 balls (and 2 Ks)
Nevin just doesn’t look good right now. I would have liked to seen Nady get a start at first today to give Nevin a couple days off.
Stauffer looked better that inning, but still a bit tentative…he totally missed the plate with about 4 or 5 pitches, followed by body language that seemed to say “ack…how’d that pitch end up way over there?”
His fastball has nice sink, and the one slider he showed was pretty nice. Is he also throwing a cutter?
Nevin is lunging quite a bit lately
Here we go, another two out rally. The odds are against us, but it would be nice to Khalil get a hit here.
Saw a comment on the web site about Jason Scavone.
Glad that he helped you out, but be careful.
His credentials are a bit suspect.
Let’s just say he has good family business interests.
HBP. Miggy got good wood on the ball first time up. Let’s see if he can get the big knock.
Bases Loaded for Ojeda…
Is this a replay of the bottom of the first?
If so, Ojeda, make like Lopez.
Damn, another rally snuffed. Wilson is on borrowed time though. One of these innings the Pads have to break through. Don’t they??? 7 LOB through three.
Instead, Ojeda makes like Austin Kearns, first inning.
This is a lotta LOB. 7 so far in 3 innings.
Two times through the line-up in three innings and only one run scored. Amazing.
Hopefully, the third (or fourth) time will be the charm. 60 pitches through three innings.
This is when an inside pitch might be useful…
Stauffer is KILLING himself with these 2-0 counts to the heart of the order.
He’s all over the place right now.
Even his strikes are missing location (e.g. inside corner when Ojeda was setting up outside)
Big strikeout! Way to dig deep.
Big K. 70 pitches thru 3 is ugly though.
Stauffer is wild right now, but clearly his stuff can fool people.
Staufer got out of another bases loaded jam. Geez.
For whatever reason, Stauffer (I’m assuming) just doesn’t have his best stuff today. I have all the confidence that Balsley can straighten him out in the long run.
Third inning, 28 pitches, only 13 strikes.
Stauffer gave up a single and then walked two to load the bases.
Then the kid showed some moxie, retiring an experienced contact hitter in Randa and a talented, albeit free-swinger, in Kearns.
Clearly, Stauffer does not have the control today for which he was known in college, the Cape Cod League, and the minors (His WHIP is sixth lowest in the PCL.)
But, aside from the first-inning blast by the second hitter he faced, Stauffer’s managed to hold the Reds scoreless.
That might say something for being able to pitch without your best stuff.
Here we go again. Another promising situation (1st and 2nd, one out) with the big three coming up.
“For whatever reason?” How bout the fact that it’s his major league debut? His nerves must be off the charts.
Now, let’s see if Loretta, Klesko, Nevin, and Giles can take the pressure off the kid.
Roberts is doing his job.
2 more hits, we really need to start capitalizing here.
Finally, a line shot HR for Klesko on the first pitch. 4-2 Padres!
Yeah, there we go. Klesko 3 run bomb.
I agree with you Eric on Stauffer. At least that is what I am hoping it is. From all accounts his mental makeup is superior and I think he will learn from this and now that we have the lead, can get the victory too.
Wow. Paul Wilson Career vs Klesko:
7-13, 5 HR, .538 AVG
Now that is owning a guy.
I blog.
Loretta and Klesko deliver.
See, it’s so easy!!!!
LOL
wow…Klesko didn’t even look like he swung very hard.
Klesko was probably complaining to his agent and Sandy Alderson about Petco’s dimensions while at the plate.
Then he sneezed and accidentally jacked one out.
Klesko jacked a three running homer. So much for his back.
Office workers, catch the game on the net using gameday. Its on the padre site under the main picture.
http://www.padretalk.blogspot.com
Padre Mike
Wilson’s given up 10 hits and a walk in 4.
Stauffer’s given up 3 hits, 3 walks, and 2 HBP in 3.
Get comfy. This’ll take awhile.
When will bouorghs learn to turn on the ball? Until he does, the book is inside stuff.
To answer a question, Stauffer does throw a cutter. At least according to most articles.
80+ pitches in the fourth, not great. How old is this kid? His picture on Gameday looks 17.
Stauffer throws what, a 4 seamer on occasion, a sinker, change, (knuckle)curve, and a cutter? Does he also throw a slider?
Now there’s a nice inning. A popout, 2 K’s, 14 pitches.
Golly, I love a team of free swingers. They can make a major league debut so much easier for a nervous rookie pitcher.
Eighty-four pitches through four. Stauffer’s probably on a 100-pitch count.
Wonder what Bochy will do?
Kid has the lead. If he can make it through five, he would be in line for the W.
But there’s the pitch count factor AND the fact he’s struggled with Lopez-Casey-Griffey-Dunn. 4-1-3-2. (all three hits), all three walks he’s allowed, and one of the two HBPs.
Also, Stauffer hasn’t thrown fewer than 21 pitches in an inning. Can he get through the fifth on 16 pitches?
Radio guys said he threw a slider earlier…
I wouldn’t let Stauffer throw more than 100 pitches. Bochy will let him finish the inning unless he gets shelled.
Richard, in the first and third innings, when Stauffer faced Lopez-Casey-Griffey-Dunn, he needed 27 and 28 pitches, respectively, to get through the frames.
I’m not sure Stauffer can get through those four on just 16 pitches.
I’d let him finish the 5th if he can to give him the shot at the win.
Two pitches to Lopez is a good start.
Three pitches, two outs, even better.
Very nice.
Now, Stauffer, get the Hall of Famer….
Nice piece of hitting by Griffey. That sinker was almost in the dirt.
Flan’s play-by-play gives me a headache…
C’mon, Tim, you can smell the W in your major league debut.
Hoffman’s in the pen waiting.
Put Dunn away.
With a bad back and all, that was a heckuva catch by Ryno to get over to the line. On to the sixth!
Well, another good inning. The kid seems to be settling down, and is now in line for the win.
Took him 94 pitches. Now, you take him out. Congrats to Stauffer on giving his team a good chance to win in his first start.
Flannery is horrible. Where’s Bob Chandler when we need him?
This turned out pretty nicely considering the first two batters
I think I’d let him start the sixth. He’s settled in, and 100 pitches is an arbitrary number. It’s an easier part of he order, but it doesn’t matter much either way.
Wilson is leaving lots of stuff up in the zone and with the exception of Nevin, they are just feasting off of it.
wow, Roberts is 4-4.
I agree, let him start the sixth.
How many times has Dave Roberts tried to steal second only to have Loretta foul the pitch away?
Very, very, very impressive.
Probably on or near fumes, Stauffer gets through the fifth with only the Griffey single.
Here’s an impressive pitch-count breakdown:
Inning Total Strikes Balls
1 27 14 13
2 15 9 6
3 28 13 15
4 14 10 4
5 10 7 3
Fewer pitches in the fourth and fifth COMBINED than in the third.
Very, very nice.
Also, since allowing the Freel HBP and Lopez HR to start things, Stauffer’s line reads
5-3-0-0-3-5 (1 HBP)
Another promising start to an inning, 2nd and 3rd no one out, and Klesko coming up. Pitching change. Stone for Wilson. I still like the matchup for Ryno.
And Stauffer even singled in his first major league at-bat.
The original version of PAP operated under the assumption that fatigue set in at 100 pitches, and after 100 pitches a starter was awarded Abuse Points for each additional pitch. The number of points he received per pitch slowly increased as he threw more pitches.
Two years later, Keith Woolner performed the definitive study that examined the relationship between high pitch counts and injury risk. First, Woolner looked at whether there was a relationship between high pitch counts and decreased effectiveness over the pitchers next few starts. What he found was that, while the relationship was there, the formula for PAP needed to be changed–that until that point, the system did not penalize pitchers enough for really high pitch counts (120 and up) compared to a 105 or 110-pitch outing.
Then using the new, refined formula for PAP, Woolner showed that there was, indeed, a link between high PAP scores and future injury risk.
The way PAP scores are calculated is quite simple. Simply take the number of pitches thrown in any given start, and subtract by 100. (If the pitcher threw fewer than 100 pitches, he automatically receives zero PAP for that outing.) Then the resultant number is cubed to arrive at the PAP score for that start:
100 pitches – 100 = 0^3 = 0 PAP
105 pitches – 100 = 5^3 = 125 PAP
115 pitches – 100 = 15^3 = 3375 PAP
130 pitches – 100 = 30^3 = 27000 PAP
Nice when your #1 & 2 hitters are 7 for 8.
That’s from Baseball Prospectus…
I don’t care about the arbitrary 100 number, but he did throw a lot of high-stress pitches early in the game, so I’d rather not push it. I only wanted to push it as far as to set himself up for a win, boosting his confidence for future outings.
Richard, nice post.
You’re blogging with a fan of the great J.R. Richard here, the finest pitcher never to get major ink on either coast until tragedy (a near fatal stroke) ended his career.
I’m a huge fan these days of Livan Hernandez, Mr. Complete Game.
But we’re dealing with nervous general managers, eager press relations people, and this 100-pitch-and-leave mantra.
The point is that the number isn’t exactly arbitrary.
Nevin finally hit the ball into the OF. Sac Fly.
What seems to put starters at risk of injury is throwing too many pitches per start.
Roughly speaking, “too many pitches” seems to translate to “over 100″.
Once a pitcher hits his fatigue point, his risk of injury goes up very quickly with each additional pitch.
Pitchers under the age of 25 are exquisitely sensitive to overuse.
100 pitches is pretty arbitrary. It’s a ncie round number.
He’s cruising, and I’d like to insure the win. The Padres do have an off-day, though, so maybe we can afford to use everybody good in the pen, but with the bottom of the lineup…
Like I said, I’m good either way.
Burroughs just missed down the rightfield line…
Giles is so hot he’s getting some Bonds treatment
Khalil has another chance, now.
Sean isn’t really hitting for more power yet, but he’s definitely trying to pull the ball more.
Sean turned on that foul ball nicely. I’d like to see more of that. Still lined to left to load the bases though. I will take it.
Stauffer’s back out there.
Sean’s playing a good third base.
One out. Nice catch by Sean. What looked like a knucklecurve got too much of the plate.
Two outs. Comebacker on a sinker.
my thinking is, Stauffer’s age and hi-stress situations early in the game made the “too many pitches” mark much lower than 100 for today. But pushing him to the point of being in line for a win was worth it for his confidence. I can also see the argument that he is now cruising, and probably not laboring much in these 100+ pitches. So 100 is a nice, even, average number, but really arbitrary either way.
343 PAP. Good game by Stauffer (rhymes with cow fur).
Stauffer settled down nicely in those last three innings. Was getting ahead in the count, was working much more around the plate. I am impressed that he hung in there, and hopefully this will take care of the 5th starter “curse.” What I expected to see more of from him was change-ups. I didn’t see many thrown today and it is supposed to be one of his better pitches.
Stauffer’s retired 11 of the last 12 he’s faced. The only blemish: Griffey’s two-out single in the fifth.
He needed 70 pitches (36-34) to get through the first three.
He threw only 38 pitches (25-13) to retire the Reds in the last three.
All this after the kid started HBP-HR-BB-2B-HBP.
Since, then he’s thrown six scoreless innings, allowed just two hits and two walks and struckout five.
Not bad at all.
Who says the Padres’ number five starter can’t win since Valdez left?
BABIP v. Tim Stauffer
(H-XBH) / (BIP-XBH)
2/13 = .154
Yeah, he was lucky.
Some pitching facts thru 6 innings …
Pitches-strikes – T Stauffer 108-61; P Wilson 96-63; R Stone 15-7.
Ground balls-fly balls – T Stauffer 6-8; P Wilson 6-5; R Stone 0-3.
Batters faced – T Stauffer 26; P Wilson 29; R Stone 5.
Good summary Iced. Thanks for breaking it down.
Roberts hit that on a line and deep, huh?
Roberts has swung the bat well today. Kearns made a nice running catch there on the track.
Richard … how do you know it rhymes with “cow fur” and not “aw fur”?
6-2, Padres.
Leitner was saying that they were told it’s pronounced differently than we all thought today. Rhymes with “cow fur.”
Yeah, Kearns had to make a good catch to get it.
7-2…
Error, another run.
Now that the Padres are generally playing better defense as a team, I can feel better about laughing when the other team botches a routine play. Nice catch Freel! Jimenez must really be in the doghouse again.
The Reds announcers said “Stouffer” a couple times, as in “Stouffer’s Pizza”
Richard, you make your own luck.
Especially with two runs in, the bases loaded, and a veteran major league hitter who knows how to put the bat on the ball staring at you in your first start in the bigs.
Kid used his fielders to get the double play, retired the side in the second, loaded the sacks with one out in the third, and then set down 11 of the final 12 he faced.
No gifts here. No luck. Just the signs of a very tough, determined, professional pitcher who grew up in a hurry before our eyes today.
If you’re a Padres fan, you’ve got something there. Maybe not Mark Prior or Josh Beckett on the gun.
Maybe just the kind of pitcher who wins games.
Stauffer: 3.00 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 1.67 K/BB
“…grew up in a hurry before our eyes today.”
I like that.
Pitchers have almost no control over whether or not a ball in play is recorded as an out with the exception of (not) giving up extra base hits. Part of that .154 is luck.
Don’t think for a second that I’m not very impressed with what he did today. It was his major league debut and he’s entitled to a little luck if you ask me.
Richard,
After starting HBP-HR-BB-2B-HBP in his MAJOR LEAGUE DEBUT…
Stauffer: 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 5.00 K/BB
Iced, I’m not trying to be negative here. He pitched very well. It isn’t his fault that the defense recorded outs on an inordinately high number of balls in play. He did a fantastic job. Most guys would fall apart after starting HBP, HR, BB, 2B, HBP.
Richard, thanks for the pronunciation … and I’m starting to buy into the BABIP theory … that .154 is indicative of some luck …
IC … the pitcher I think of when I hear the phrase “just the kind of pitcher who wins games” is Kurt Reuter … I’m OK with that analogy … just don’t want to jump the gun that it means more than that …
C’mon bully, now it’s your time to save a game for the rookie!!!
Seanez does his part …
- R. Seanez relieved T. Stauffer
- J. Valentin popped out to shallow right center
- R. Freel singled to left
- F. Lopez flied out to left
- R. Freel stole second
- S. Casey popped out to shallow left center
I have to go to class. Go Padres.
See ya Richard.
Giles has some decent numbers .256/.399/.479 after coming out of that slump.
Giles is definitely swinging the bat better. Hopefully he will keep it up. Things have gotten so bad in the Cincy radio booth that they are now reading out of a supermarket tabloid.
Yeah, I heard all that stuff.
“Who says the Padres’ number five starter can’t win since Valdez left?”
What if I consider May our current #5 starter?
; )~
Giles has reached base all 5 times today.
Richard, what’s the reference point for average BA when XBH are taken out? If you use real BABIP (instead of also taking out 2B and 3B) BABIP ends up around .300 for the league…
I suppose it won’t make much of a difference (only one double) but you can’t use .300 as a reference point, I don’t think.
There’s the final out. Nice way to end the road trip.
After Stauffer started HBP-HR-BB-2B-HBP…
did anyone expect him to:
Win the game?
Yield no additional runs?
Survive the first inning?
Get a single hitter out?
I didn’t, and I’ve known the kid since he was 16!
Iced…
I expected him to get at least one person out, but I can’t believe how well he settled down.
Looking forward to him, especially a game or two in the safe havens of Petco.
When do we think Stauffer’s next start will be? … off tomorrow … then … home games …
Next 5 Games
Fri, May 13 Florida 10:05 pm
Sat, May 14 Florida 10:05 pm
Sun, May 15 Florida 4:05 pm
Mon, May 16 Atlanta 10:05 pm
Tue, May 17 Atlanta 10:05 pm
… seems like Stauffer’s turn will be up on Monday, May 16th vs Braves … that’ll be 4 days rest … cool!
Chick got his first W today … http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=g_box&gid=2005_05_11_hunaax_mobaax_1 …
5.2 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 7 Ks, 0 BBs … the bully let in one of the runs … a good day.
Check out who was playing CF for Huntsville
And a good day for the home boys in Ft. Wayne … http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/app/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=g_box&gid=2005_05_11_swmafx_ftwafx_1 … Matty with 2 hits and 2 RsBI …
Alan, it’s roughly .240.
That’s based strictly on 2005 numbers.
I had to use this formula (hence, roughly):
(H-XBH) / [AB - (XBH+K)]
Stupid unavailabiity of BIP stats…
BP’s STAT OF THE DAY …
Top 5 NL Hitters, by Extra-base Hit Percentage
Player, Team, H, 2B, 3B, HR, XBH%
Adam Dunn, CIN, 26, 10, 1, 8, 73.1%
Troy Glaus, ARI, 30, 10, 1, 9, 66.7%
Ryan Klesko, SDN, 21, 7, 0, 7, 51.9%
Jason Lane, HOU, 29, 9, 1, 5, 51.7%
Aramis Ramirez, CHN, 29, 9, 0, 6, 51.7%