In-Game Discussion: Padres @ Reds (11 May 2005)
Wed, May 11, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 9:35 a.m., PT
television: none
matchup: Tim Stauffer (big-league debut) vs Paul Wilson (1-3, 7.25 ERA)
Brian Lawrence’s road struggles continued Tuesday, as the Pads were unable to overcome their second straight 5-1 defecit in the ninth. More poor baserunning and lack of clutch hitting were contributing factors, as were the decisions to have Dave Roberts pinch hit for Xavier Nady and Ryan Klesko not pinch hit for Damian Jackson in the ninth.
Wednesday sees Tim Stauffer make his big-league debut. Those in the San Diego area who are looking forward to watching him pitch will have to wait, as the game is not being broadcast on local television. As for Stauffer, here’s what he’s done leading up to this:
IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
college 346.0 2.16 7.08 0.36 2.00 9.42
minors 206.2 2.79 8.75 0.83 2.44 6.27
I looked through an old dataset to see if I could find any current big leaguers with similar minor league numbers. Unfortunately, the list was littered with names like Willie Adams, Joel Adamson, Matt Drews, Robert Toth, and Bret Wagner. I did manage to find one guy, and it’s kinda funny because you’d be hard pressed to come up with a pitcher whose style is any less like Stauffer’s:
IP ERA H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Esteban Yan 379.2 3.15 8.70 0.52 2.16 6.16
I don’t know how much faith I have in this comp, but there it is. FWIW, Yan has had very mixed success in the big leagues.
If there’s one concern I have in looking at Stauffer’s line, it’s undoubtedly the low strikeout numbers. From that same dataset, the most successful big-league pitchers who punched out fewer than 7 per 9 innings as minor leaguers have been Terry Adams, Brian Boehringer, Jim Brower, Paul Byrd, Chris Carpenter, Mike DeJean, Elmer Dessens, John Frascatore, Jim Mecir, Bill Simas, and Donne Wall. Some pretty useful arms in that group but, with the possible exception of Carpenter, no real impact guys.
On the other hand, this is but one dataset and every case is different. I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s parade - obviously we’re all hoping Stauffer succeeds (and statistical comps tell us nothing about a player’s makeup; by all accounts, Stauffer’s is off the charts) - just trying to keep our expectations in check. With all the talk of curses and such, the last thing anyone needs to do is build this kid up as an ace. Let him go out and do his job, and see where it goes from there.
Speaking of expectations, the pitcher Stauffer will face in his big-league debut is former Mets #1 draft pick and phenom Paul Wilson. A much more highly regarded prospect in his day than Stauffer is now, Wilson has overcome serious injuries to become a decent - if expensive - option at the back end of a rotation. He is coming off a game in which all eight batters he faced reached base and scored. Getting healthy against the Pads may prove tricky:
AB BA OBP SLG
Wilson vs current Padres 69 .420 .494 .826
Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko have 20 plate appearances between them against Wilson; seven of those have resulted in home runs.
Again, the game starts at 9:35 a.m. PT and is not being televised in San Diego. Feel free to chat as you follow the action online; if anyone is catching some other video feed, maybe you can let us know how Stauffer looks.
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May 10, 2005 at 11:12 pm
Interesting post on Stauffer comps, Geoff. Only one minor quibble - are you sure Klesko was available for pinch-hitting duty? I heard he had lower back problems and was given a day. Do you have any better information?
May 10, 2005 at 11:46 pm
I saw that Klesko was held out with lower back problems and will likely miss Wednesday’s game as well.
http://padres.mlb.com/NASApp/m.....mp;c_id=sd
Looking forward to Stauffer. I think the Reds’ network is carrying the game on FSN, but if not maybe MLBtv will do the same thing as the Pads/Rocks last week: ballpark feed with radio.
May 11, 2005 at 12:25 am
Good to see there was a reason Klesko wasn’t used for a reason.
May 11, 2005 at 8:35 am
Richard, were you being redundant on purpose, Richard?
May 11, 2005 at 9:04 am
Thanks for the info on Klesko, guys. That’s a shame he’s going to miss today’s game. His numbers against Wilson are just ridiculous (.538/.600/1.769).
May 11, 2005 at 9:06 am
Then again, ESPN has him batting third:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....=250511117
Those numbers will make a guy’s back feel better.
May 11, 2005 at 9:24 am
What, then, is the excuse for playing Phil Nevin yesterday, who (according to the radio boys) couldn’t even turn his head because his neck hurt so bad? If only the Padres had a backup who had been murdering the ball lately…oh, wait, they do! And if you don’t want to start Sweeney against a lefty starter yesterday, why not rest Nevin today? As nice as it is to be a ‘gamer’, playing while hurt (and leaving two guys on 3B with less than two outs in his first two ABs yesterday) doesn’t help him or the club.
May 11, 2005 at 9:39 am
I’m here watching the game on mlb.tv at work, again. I’m so bad. I won’t be watching every pitch, obviously, but I’ll try to give my impressions on Stauffer.
May 11, 2005 at 9:44 am
This is a promising start. Well it was before Klesko k’d.
May 11, 2005 at 9:46 am
This is a promising start. Well it was before Klesko k’d.
May 11, 2005 at 9:47 am
Sorry for the double post.
May 11, 2005 at 9:48 am
Giles is hitting everything lately. That pitch looked like it was at the letters.
May 11, 2005 at 9:48 am
It appears that this game is not on Reds TV, so we are seeing the raw feed from the ballpark since I am now watching Kiss Cam
May 11, 2005 at 9:52 am
Freel leaned into that one.
May 11, 2005 at 9:53 am
Not the start Timmy wanted. 2 run homer.
May 11, 2005 at 9:58 am
HBP, HR, BB, 2B…
May 11, 2005 at 9:59 am
Still not any better, that double by Griffey puts runners at 2nd and 3rd with still no one out. Stauffer is not getting them to chase anything and is leaving his fastball over the plate. His curve is missing badly.
May 11, 2005 at 9:59 am
HBP
May 11, 2005 at 10:00 am
Another HBP. Bases loaded.
May 11, 2005 at 10:00 am
Radio guys are saying he can’t get on top of his breaking ball and is just flipping it up there.
May 11, 2005 at 10:01 am
Oh for a comebacker…
May 11, 2005 at 10:02 am
Double play!
May 11, 2005 at 10:02 am
Yeah that’s pretty accurate. He is missing badly with his offspeed stuff and then is just grooving his fastballs to make up for it.
May 11, 2005 at 10:02 am
What’d that play look like?
May 11, 2005 at 10:02 am
Nice double play. No time to let up though.
May 11, 2005 at 10:03 am
Only gave up two? How did that happen?
May 11, 2005 at 10:03 am
Ground ball to Burroughs just to the right of the bag. He fielded it, stepped on third for one and then they got the runner going home in a rundown.
May 11, 2005 at 10:05 am
Hopefully for us, Wilson doesn’t look much better.
May 11, 2005 at 10:06 am
I have to hand it to Freel for getting that inning going. The pitch that hit him was not that far inside, Freel turned is back and it hit him in the arm. Puts a runner on and rattles the youngster with his location.
May 11, 2005 at 10:07 am
Damn nice play by Randa.
May 11, 2005 at 10:09 am
my connection is painfully flaky. What was the 3rd out? sportsline game center is saying triple play, Griffey out at 3rd.
May 11, 2005 at 10:10 am
There was no triple play. Third out was a line out to Loretta at second.
May 11, 2005 at 10:11 am
2 out double by Roberts puts runners at 2nd and 3rd. Let’s see if Loretta can get those runs back for Tim.
May 11, 2005 at 10:12 am
Wilson’s not fooling anyone.
May 11, 2005 at 10:16 am
Cincy’s offense came into the game with the most strikeouts of any NL team, 264, and the fourth-highest (12) and, after the first inning now tied for Florida with the third-highest number of HBP, 14. Kid’s just got to calm down. He’ll be fine. First time out, a pitcher either lights up the opposition or gets waxed. Stauffer got out of that mess with just two runs. Let’s see what happens.
May 11, 2005 at 10:21 am
Much better second, but still missing a bit with his location.
May 11, 2005 at 10:21 am
Freel will be interesting. Let’s see how aggressively Stauffer goes after the first batter he ever faced (and hit) in the bigs….
May 11, 2005 at 10:22 am
Now, that’s why you draft a kid fourth overall. Didn’t give up an inch and sat Freel down looking.
May 11, 2005 at 10:24 am
First inning:
27 pitches = 14 strikes + 13 balls
Second inning:
15 pitches = 9 strikes + 6 balls (and 2 Ks)
May 11, 2005 at 10:25 am
Nevin just doesn’t look good right now. I would have liked to seen Nady get a start at first today to give Nevin a couple days off.
May 11, 2005 at 10:27 am
Stauffer looked better that inning, but still a bit tentative…he totally missed the plate with about 4 or 5 pitches, followed by body language that seemed to say “ack…how’d that pitch end up way over there?”
His fastball has nice sink, and the one slider he showed was pretty nice. Is he also throwing a cutter?
May 11, 2005 at 10:27 am
Nevin is lunging quite a bit lately
May 11, 2005 at 10:28 am
Here we go, another two out rally. The odds are against us, but it would be nice to Khalil get a hit here.
May 11, 2005 at 10:29 am
Saw a comment on the web site about Jason Scavone.
Glad that he helped you out, but be careful.
His credentials are a bit suspect.
Let’s just say he has good family business interests.
May 11, 2005 at 10:29 am
HBP. Miggy got good wood on the ball first time up. Let’s see if he can get the big knock.
May 11, 2005 at 10:30 am
Bases Loaded for Ojeda…
May 11, 2005 at 10:31 am
Is this a replay of the bottom of the first?
If so, Ojeda, make like Lopez.
May 11, 2005 at 10:32 am
Damn, another rally snuffed. Wilson is on borrowed time though. One of these innings the Pads have to break through. Don’t they??? 7 LOB through three.
May 11, 2005 at 10:32 am
Instead, Ojeda makes like Austin Kearns, first inning.
May 11, 2005 at 10:32 am
This is a lotta LOB. 7 so far in 3 innings.
May 11, 2005 at 10:33 am
Two times through the line-up in three innings and only one run scored. Amazing.
Hopefully, the third (or fourth) time will be the charm. 60 pitches through three innings.
May 11, 2005 at 10:35 am
This is when an inside pitch might be useful…
May 11, 2005 at 10:39 am
Stauffer is KILLING himself with these 2-0 counts to the heart of the order.
May 11, 2005 at 10:41 am
He’s all over the place right now.
May 11, 2005 at 10:44 am
Even his strikes are missing location (e.g. inside corner when Ojeda was setting up outside)
May 11, 2005 at 10:46 am
Big strikeout! Way to dig deep.
May 11, 2005 at 10:46 am
Big K. 70 pitches thru 3 is ugly though.
May 11, 2005 at 10:47 am
Stauffer is wild right now, but clearly his stuff can fool people.
May 11, 2005 at 10:48 am
Staufer got out of another bases loaded jam. Geez.
May 11, 2005 at 10:50 am
For whatever reason, Stauffer (I’m assuming) just doesn’t have his best stuff today. I have all the confidence that Balsley can straighten him out in the long run.
May 11, 2005 at 10:51 am
Third inning, 28 pitches, only 13 strikes.
Stauffer gave up a single and then walked two to load the bases.
Then the kid showed some moxie, retiring an experienced contact hitter in Randa and a talented, albeit free-swinger, in Kearns.
Clearly, Stauffer does not have the control today for which he was known in college, the Cape Cod League, and the minors (His WHIP is sixth lowest in the PCL.)
But, aside from the first-inning blast by the second hitter he faced, Stauffer’s managed to hold the Reds scoreless.
That might say something for being able to pitch without your best stuff.
May 11, 2005 at 10:52 am
Here we go again. Another promising situation (1st and 2nd, one out) with the big three coming up.
May 11, 2005 at 10:52 am
“For whatever reason?” How bout the fact that it’s his major league debut? His nerves must be off the charts.
May 11, 2005 at 10:52 am
Now, let’s see if Loretta, Klesko, Nevin, and Giles can take the pressure off the kid.
Roberts is doing his job.
May 11, 2005 at 10:52 am
2 more hits, we really need to start capitalizing here.
May 11, 2005 at 10:53 am
Finally, a line shot HR for Klesko on the first pitch. 4-2 Padres!
May 11, 2005 at 10:53 am
Yeah, there we go. Klesko 3 run bomb.
May 11, 2005 at 10:54 am
I agree with you Eric on Stauffer. At least that is what I am hoping it is. From all accounts his mental makeup is superior and I think he will learn from this and now that we have the lead, can get the victory too.
May 11, 2005 at 10:54 am
Wow. Paul Wilson Career vs Klesko:
7-13, 5 HR, .538 AVG
Now that is owning a guy.
May 11, 2005 at 10:54 am
I blog.
Loretta and Klesko deliver.
See, it’s so easy!!!!
LOL
May 11, 2005 at 10:54 am
wow…Klesko didn’t even look like he swung very hard.
May 11, 2005 at 10:55 am
Klesko was probably complaining to his agent and Sandy Alderson about Petco’s dimensions while at the plate.
Then he sneezed and accidentally jacked one out.
May 11, 2005 at 10:57 am
Klesko jacked a three running homer. So much for his back.
Office workers, catch the game on the net using gameday. Its on the padre site under the main picture.
http://www.padretalk.blogspot.com
Padre Mike
May 11, 2005 at 10:58 am
Wilson’s given up 10 hits and a walk in 4.
Stauffer’s given up 3 hits, 3 walks, and 2 HBP in 3.
Get comfy. This’ll take awhile.
May 11, 2005 at 10:59 am
When will bouorghs learn to turn on the ball? Until he does, the book is inside stuff.
May 11, 2005 at 11:00 am
To answer a question, Stauffer does throw a cutter. At least according to most articles.
May 11, 2005 at 11:03 am
80+ pitches in the fourth, not great. How old is this kid? His picture on Gameday looks 17.
May 11, 2005 at 11:04 am
Stauffer throws what, a 4 seamer on occasion, a sinker, change, (knuckle)curve, and a cutter? Does he also throw a slider?
May 11, 2005 at 11:04 am
Now there’s a nice inning. A popout, 2 K’s, 14 pitches.
May 11, 2005 at 11:04 am
Golly, I love a team of free swingers. They can make a major league debut so much easier for a nervous rookie pitcher.
May 11, 2005 at 11:08 am
Eighty-four pitches through four. Stauffer’s probably on a 100-pitch count.
Wonder what Bochy will do?
Kid has the lead. If he can make it through five, he would be in line for the W.
But there’s the pitch count factor AND the fact he’s struggled with Lopez-Casey-Griffey-Dunn. 4-1-3-2. (all three hits), all three walks he’s allowed, and one of the two HBPs.
Also, Stauffer hasn’t thrown fewer than 21 pitches in an inning. Can he get through the fifth on 16 pitches?
May 11, 2005 at 11:08 am
Radio guys said he threw a slider earlier…
May 11, 2005 at 11:09 am
I wouldn’t let Stauffer throw more than 100 pitches. Bochy will let him finish the inning unless he gets shelled.
May 11, 2005 at 11:12 am
Richard, in the first and third innings, when Stauffer faced Lopez-Casey-Griffey-Dunn, he needed 27 and 28 pitches, respectively, to get through the frames.
I’m not sure Stauffer can get through those four on just 16 pitches.
May 11, 2005 at 11:12 am
I’d let him finish the 5th if he can to give him the shot at the win.
May 11, 2005 at 11:12 am
Two pitches to Lopez is a good start.
May 11, 2005 at 11:13 am
Three pitches, two outs, even better.
May 11, 2005 at 11:14 am
Very nice.
Now, Stauffer, get the Hall of Famer….
May 11, 2005 at 11:15 am
Nice piece of hitting by Griffey. That sinker was almost in the dirt.
May 11, 2005 at 11:15 am
Flan’s play-by-play gives me a headache…
May 11, 2005 at 11:16 am
C’mon, Tim, you can smell the W in your major league debut.
Hoffman’s in the pen waiting.
Put Dunn away.
May 11, 2005 at 11:16 am
With a bad back and all, that was a heckuva catch by Ryno to get over to the line. On to the sixth!
May 11, 2005 at 11:16 am
Well, another good inning. The kid seems to be settling down, and is now in line for the win.
May 11, 2005 at 11:16 am
Took him 94 pitches. Now, you take him out. Congrats to Stauffer on giving his team a good chance to win in his first start.
May 11, 2005 at 11:18 am
Flannery is horrible. Where’s Bob Chandler when we need him?
May 11, 2005 at 11:19 am
This turned out pretty nicely considering the first two batters
May 11, 2005 at 11:20 am
I think I’d let him start the sixth. He’s settled in, and 100 pitches is an arbitrary number. It’s an easier part of he order, but it doesn’t matter much either way.
May 11, 2005 at 11:20 am
Wilson is leaving lots of stuff up in the zone and with the exception of Nevin, they are just feasting off of it.
May 11, 2005 at 11:20 am
wow, Roberts is 4-4.
May 11, 2005 at 11:20 am
I agree, let him start the sixth.
May 11, 2005 at 11:20 am
How many times has Dave Roberts tried to steal second only to have Loretta foul the pitch away?
May 11, 2005 at 11:20 am
Very, very, very impressive.
Probably on or near fumes, Stauffer gets through the fifth with only the Griffey single.
Here’s an impressive pitch-count breakdown:
Inning Total Strikes Balls
1 27 14 13
2 15 9 6
3 28 13 15
4 14 10 4
5 10 7 3
Fewer pitches in the fourth and fifth COMBINED than in the third.
Very, very nice.
Also, since allowing the Freel HBP and Lopez HR to start things, Stauffer’s line reads
5-3-0-0-3-5 (1 HBP)
May 11, 2005 at 11:22 am
Another promising start to an inning, 2nd and 3rd no one out, and Klesko coming up. Pitching change. Stone for Wilson. I still like the matchup for Ryno.
May 11, 2005 at 11:22 am
And Stauffer even singled in his first major league at-bat.
May 11, 2005 at 11:22 am
The original version of PAP operated under the assumption that fatigue set in at 100 pitches, and after 100 pitches a starter was awarded Abuse Points for each additional pitch. The number of points he received per pitch slowly increased as he threw more pitches.
Two years later, Keith Woolner performed the definitive study that examined the relationship between high pitch counts and injury risk. First, Woolner looked at whether there was a relationship between high pitch counts and decreased effectiveness over the pitchers next few starts. What he found was that, while the relationship was th