In the April 21 installment, Runs Would Be Nice, we touched on the struggles of the middle of the order as well as the issue of how well the Pads are adapting to Petco Park in their second season at the new digs. I thought it might be good to check in on those and see if there’s been any change.

Heart of the Order

            AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO  BA   OBP  SLG BB/PA  ISO XB/H BB/SO AB/HR
thru 4/20  163 34  9  1  7 30 31 .209 .327 .405  .153 .196 .500  .968  23.3
thru 5/13  383 99 24  2 20 57 71 .258 .351 .488  .129 .230 .465  .770  19.2

Good news: They are making better contact and hitting the ball out of the park more often. Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko have caught fire and are re-establishing themselves as legitimate threats. The one concern with Klesko is that he appears to have adopted something of an “all or none” philosophy in May, fanning 13 times against just 3 walks in 46 trips to the plate. Still, he’s hitting over .300 and he has 6 bombs, so it’s hard to complain.

Bad news: They aren’t walking as much as they were; Phil Nevin (.250/.273/.436), despite leading the team in RBI, isn’t really getting it done. The first I can live with: The goal isn’t to draw walks, it’s to score runs. The second is a little more troubling because Nevin is the most expensive guy on the team and has a no-trade clause. Meanwhile, Xavier Nady sits and waits his turn.

Turning now to the next topic…

Home/Road Splits: Can They Turn This to Their Advantage?

At Petco

thru 4/20
            AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H AB/HR
Padres     236 59 10  4  3 35 33 .250 .349 .364 .114 .288  78.7
Opponents  249 54  7  2  2 24 51 .217 .292 .285 .068 .204 124.5

thru 5/13
            AB   H 2B 3B HR BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H AB/HR
Padres     526 140 22  5 11 64  97 .266 .348 .390 .124 .271 47.8
Opponents  538 110 25  6  9 53 121 .204 .279 .323 .119 .364 59.8

The Friars are outscoring their opponents, 63-43. But notice how the slugging numbers have really jumped for the opposition. They’re still not hitting the ball very often, but when they are, they’re hitting it pretty hard. Since we last checked, Padres opponents have seen more than half their hits go for extra bases (29 XB / 56 H = .518). Although they’ve hit just .194 during that time, their ISO is .163. For comparison, the Rockies’ ISO at Coors this year is .166.

Bottom line? Everyone is starting to hit the ball with more authority at Petco as the season progresses, but so far the opposition has made more gains than the home team.

Away from Petco

thru 4/20
            AB  H 2B 3B HR BB SO   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H AB/HR
Padres     270 62 13  0 10 35 55 .230 .318 .389 .159 .371  27.0
Opponents  276 84 17  1 12 20 58 .304 .351 .504 .200 .357  23.0

thru 5/13
            AB   H 2B 3B HR BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  ISO XB/H AB/HR
Padres     742 188 39  2 28 83 134 .253 .333 .425 .172 .367  26.5
Opponents  734 214 53  5 25 71 136 .292 .357 .480 .178 .388  29.4

The Pads have been outscored by their opponents, 120-100. The 20-run positive run differential at Petco is reversed on the road. The good news is, the pitchers and hitters appear to have made an adjustment. Take a look at the differences between the Pads and their opponents from our first checkpoint and this one:

              BA   OBP   SLG   ISO  XB/H AB/HR
thru 4/20  -.074 -.033 -.115 -.041  .014  -4.0
thru 5/13  -.039 -.024 -.055 -.006 -.021   2.9

For each line, I subtracted the opposition’s value from the Padres’ value. For AB/HR, since the smaller number is better, I reversed the operation. The point is, the Pads are closing the gap; they’re playing better on the road than they were at the beginning of the season. But the 5-2 road trip they just completed told you that already, right?

Once again, the condensed version:

thru 4/20
           Petco OPS  Non-Petco OPS
Padres        713          707
Opponents     578          855
Difference    135         -148

thru 5/13
           Petco OPS  Non-Petco OPS
Padres        738          757
Opponents     603          837
Difference    135          -80

That’s encouraging. Finally, we take a look at the Padres pitching home/road splits:

thru 4/20
        IP  ERA   H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Home  67.0 1.88  7.25 0.27 3.22 6.85
Road  67.2 5.59 11.17 1.60 2.66 7.71

thru 5/13
         IP  ERA   H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Home  148.0 2.31  6.69 0.55 3.22 7.36
Road  182.2 5.38 10.56 1.23 3.50 6.71

Interesting. Fewer hits, but more runs, homers, strikeouts at Petco than last time we looked. More walks, but fewer hits, runs, homers, and strikeouts on the road. Not sure how comfortable I am with that shrinking strikeout-to-walk ratio on the road, especially with Coors Field still in the division. With a quarter of their road games in the books, the Pads have an ERA over 5.00. And the discrepancy between home and road performance is still pretty huge. Of course, Tim Redding‘s 6 homers in 12 2/3 innings doesn’t help, but still.

Pythagoras

Jay pointed out in the comments for Friday’s In-Game Discussion (where was everyone Friday? I was sick, what’s your excuse?) that the Padres are 10-3 in 1-run games this year. He also expressed concern, and rightly so, that much of the Pads’ early-season success is based on what could be a flukish record in close games.

There are a couple other ways to look at this. One is that the Pads have a fantastic bullpen. Another is that with a little better execution, the Padres would be winning a lot of games by more than just the eventual margin of victory. To use Friday as an example, consider the seventh inning:

Giles: BB
Hernandez: 2B, RBI
Burroughs: FC, 1-5; Hernandez out at third
Greene: K
Sweeney: 2B, Burroughs to third
Roberts: BB
Loretta: 1B, Burroughs scores, Sweeney out at home

I’m not knocking two runs, especially against a guy like Josh Beckett, but the Padres had a chance to break this one wide open. Thanks to Sweeney’s double and Loretta’s single, Burroughs’ inability to move Hernandez over didn’t cost anything. It’s still horrible execution and nothing you ever want to see, but it didn’t hurt; Burroughs scored anyway. But how does Sweeney get nailed at the plate with Ryan Klesko waiting on deck? This isn’t second guessing, it’s knowing the situation. Klesko up with runners on the corners and two outs? I’ll take my chances there every time (as it happens, Klesko led off the eighth with a single; that’s not the point – that would be second guessing based on what actually occurred as opposed to examining the process that led to the decision to send Sweeney).

Anyway, I don’t mean to dwell on one play. It’s anectodal, but it’s indicative of missed opportunities by the Padres early in the season. These are not the types of mistakes you like to see your team make, no matter how much talent they may have. And bringing it back full circle, to the point about flukish perfomance and expectations vs reality, consider this: On April 24, the Padres were 8-11 but had outscored the opposition, 85-82. The local media was kind of freaking out after a sweep at Arizona. Since that time, the Pads are 12-5 but they’ve been outscored by the opposition, 81-78. I’ll put that in a chart because it’s quite remarkable:

             W  L  RS  RA PyW PyL
thru 4/24    8 11  85  82  10   9
since 4/24  12  5  78  81   8   9
total       20 16 163 163  18  18

They are killing the Pythagorean on their recent stretch. Much of this can be attributed to the May 8 blowout at St. Louis, but it’s hard not to think that eventually the pendulum will swing the other way. Or the Padres will start to execute better and beat their opponents by greater margins. Remember, there are two ways to bring actual wins in line with Pythagorean wins:

• The actual record adjusts according to run differential.
• The run differential adjusts according to actual record.

People sometimes forget about that second one. Time will tell which applies to the current Padres.