IGD: Padres vs Phillies (13 Aug 2005)
Sat, Aug 13, 2005
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 7:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4
matchup: Pedro Astacio (3-10, 5.85 ERA) vs Vicente Padilla (5-11, 5.00 ERA)
preview: Padres.com
For the second straight game, the Padres face a pitcher with an ERA of exactly 5.00. Unfortunately, unlike Friday night the Friars aren’t sending a better pitcher out there. No offense (pun intended), but if you let Jon Lieber shut you down, you deserve what you get.
Jake Peavy pitched a great game. That’s not what he’ll tell you but aside from some first-inning struggles, he did just fine. Peavy isn’t the guy who ran the bases poorly in the seventh. Peavy isn’t the guy who made sure Xavier Nady never saw the light of day, even when flamethrowing lefty Billy Wagner entered the contest.
Saturday night features Padilla, who started against the Padres in Philly on July 22. Padilla allowed three runs over six innings, and the Phillies eventually won in the 11th on a walkoff two-run jack by Chase Utley. This was the fifth defeat in a row for the Pads, in what turned out to be an eight game losing streak.
The Padres figure to stack the lineup with lefties against the Nicaraguan born righthander, who has some pretty extreme splits:
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB/HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs left | 185 | .314 | .408 | .600 | 15.4 |
| vs right | 179 | .229 | .317 | .374 | 44.8 |
Not a lot of Padres have faced him much. The ones who have generally have done pretty well, and most of the success (with the notable exception of Mark Loretta) has come from lefties. Here’s how Saturday night’s starters have fared against the opposition:
| AB | BA | OBP | SLG | AB/HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astacio vs current Phillies | 188 | .303 | .393 | .596 | 15.7 |
| Padilla vs current Padres | 95 | .295 | .380 | .516 | 19.0 |
Pretty much everyone hits Astacio. Kenny Lofton is 0-for-11, and Jimmy Rollins is hitting .115/.207/.231 over 26 career at-bats. The rest? Of the guys who have 10 or more plate appearances against Astacio, Mike Lieberthal, Bobby Abreu, Pat Burrell, and Todd Pratt all have OPS higher than 1000 in those matchups.
For the Padres, it’s Ryan Klesko (.462/.588/.769 in 13 AB), Loretta (.455/.500/.818 in 11 AB), and Robert Fick (.333/.368/.444 in 18 AB) doing most of the damage. In a smaller sample, Brian Giles (.500/.636/1.375 in 8 AB) has put up some Nintendo numbers against Padilla.
My advice? If you want to see the starters pitch, better get to the park early.
Linkapallooza
- Padres activate Seanez from DL (Yahoo). Craig Breslow is sent to Portland to make room. Did you know that Seanez is fifth on the team in strikeouts?
- Klesko must go back to first base (Padres.com). I dunno. I can’t really get too worked up over where Klesko plays as long as Nady continues to ride pine.
- Floyd angry after Otsuka hits him in knee (NY Newsday). Quoth Floyd: “We already lost two of our guys, and instead of just putting four fingers up and walking me, he throws the ball right into my knee. You can’t let teams disrespect you like that.” It’s like Ray Davies says: paranoia will destroy ya.
- Beavers find hitting power for home win (Oregonian). Sean Burroughs hits a grand slam!
- Conversation with Dustin Delucchi (PDX Beavers). Jonathan chats with the Beavers center fielder. Delucchi is, among other things, a childhood friend of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
- Padres Lose By One, Nady Watches From Bench (Future Friars). Richard is glad to see the 26-year-old stud hitter get the rest he needs. No, not really. He’s pissed, like the rest of us.
Tunes: Beck, White Stripes, Kurt Elling, Pinback, R.E.M., The Killers, Muse.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
August 13, 2005 at 10:41 am
You know Goff, I’m tired of this crappy team. Realistically, we are a third or forth place team. If the NL West wasn’t the double A league, the Padres would be another also ran team.
One lousy run, one lousy, f****ing run. Hell we couldn’t even get a guy on base, and when Jackson did get on base, he got tagged out on a questionable call.
No wonder Bocky got him self tossed, it was just ugly.
I’m going off the Padres for a while, its too frustrating to watch us shutdown repeatedly by mediocre pitching or wasting great pitching performances because we can’t hit the fucking ball.
Bitter, Padre Mike
August 13, 2005 at 2:49 pm
What are you crying about? The Padres are going to the playoffs for the first time since ‘98. Be happy.
August 13, 2005 at 3:01 pm
Yeah, Mike!
Richard wasn’t even BORN YET in 98, so imagine what it must be like for HIM, never having witnessed his team in the postseason!!!
Chin up, dammit!!!
August 13, 2005 at 7:10 pm
I think we have the talent there to score some runs but Bochy runs a new lineup out there every night. How in the heck are we gonna achieve some offensive consistency?
August 13, 2005 at 7:13 pm
Good thing they traded Nevin to open up the playing time for Nady. Otherwise he would just be warming the bench.
Oh he is warming the bench!
August 13, 2005 at 7:14 pm
Betcha Pedro is liking Petco park by now. Nice to see a 1, 2, 3 inning. Now lets get some runs!
August 13, 2005 at 7:19 pm
Hey, Geoff, what do the “tunes” mean?
August 13, 2005 at 7:31 pm
I imagine the tunes are bands he’s listening to.
August 13, 2005 at 7:32 pm
Sweeney has hit better than both Nady and Nevin this season. Hell, he’s hit better than everyone in the NL save Derrek Lee and Albert Pujols.
August 13, 2005 at 7:33 pm
And only Jason Giambi in the AL has hit better than Sweeney this season.
August 13, 2005 at 7:35 pm
As soon as you compliment Sweeney, he shows his baserunning insanity again.
August 13, 2005 at 7:36 pm
I mean, just because the hit and run is on doesn’t mean you don’t look at the ball. Sweeney just ran blindly.
August 13, 2005 at 7:36 pm
Sweeney may be the worst base runner in the Majors, though.
August 13, 2005 at 7:36 pm
Rich, do you have Bill James’ book on managers he did about 10 years ago.
August 13, 2005 at 7:37 pm
Yep, that’s just what I’m listening to when I write.
August 13, 2005 at 7:37 pm
I’m afraid not.
August 13, 2005 at 7:42 pm
$35 for that book (used no less) on Amazon.
August 13, 2005 at 7:42 pm
And there goes the perfect game.
August 13, 2005 at 7:43 pm
It’s great. I have read it a few times. I was going to tell you/ask you some stuff about it. Do you have an IM system?
August 13, 2005 at 7:44 pm
RichardBrianWade on AIM
August 13, 2005 at 7:47 pm
Astacio is looking really good thus far.
August 13, 2005 at 7:51 pm
Yes, Sweeney has been amazing this year, but not too much different splits wise. He has had only 14 ab this year vs lefties..add that to 76 ab total for his ten year career and you have a made to order platoon player.
When you compare Sweeney to Lee and Pujols, remember that they play everyday. Sweeney has just less than half their ab’s and is used selectively.
Sweeney is haveing a heckva year but we cant really compare him to a superstar everyday player, can we?
August 13, 2005 at 7:53 pm
I think you can if he’s the left side of a platoon. And I wish he was used with Nady in a true platoon. That would result in some of the best first base production of any team in the Majors.
August 13, 2005 at 7:57 pm
Yes, we could get some good production off of that but I am not sure Bochy knows how to use a straight platoon. If he does, he sure doesnt act like it.
August 13, 2005 at 8:02 pm
Routine 1-4-3 play.
August 13, 2005 at 8:07 pm
Even a straight platoon isn’t quite right. Nady is too good to be a platoon player.
August 13, 2005 at 8:07 pm
http://www.dodgerblues.com/con.....ments.html
Someone put together a list of dubious moments in Dodgers history. Great stuff. You can play Lasorda’s rant on Bevacqua.
August 13, 2005 at 8:10 pm
Ah yes, the good ol’ double play. Damn.
August 13, 2005 at 8:12 pm
So, did anyone expect a scoreless tie through four tonight?
August 13, 2005 at 8:20 pm
I wouldn’t have been surprised if we were scoreless through four.
August 13, 2005 at 8:21 pm
actually, I didnt expect the Padres to score as the offensive has been impotent at home. I didnt expect Pedro to be shuting out Philly tho.
August 13, 2005 at 8:25 pm
back to Nady, its hard to lobby for him to be an everyday player when he is having so much trouble making contact vs right handers. He does some damage when he does make contact(15 of his 31 hits have been extra bases with 9 homers). Still, its really hard to justify .221ba/.264obp against rightys as an everyday player.
August 13, 2005 at 8:29 pm
Have you guys seen those folks at tonight’s game dressed up as superheroes and bees at the park?
August 13, 2005 at 8:30 pm
True, Hank. On the other hand, I wonder how much of that is due to lack of PT. When Nady was getting more opportunities against RHP, he was hitting them a lot better than that.
August 13, 2005 at 8:31 pm
Yeah, I just saw the bees. What’s up with that?
August 13, 2005 at 8:31 pm
Wow, beautiful bunt by Roberts.
August 13, 2005 at 8:33 pm
Sweet play by Roberts. I would love to see him bunt more often, especially when he is in a slump otherwise. I realize he is hitting well this month.
August 13, 2005 at 8:34 pm
I don’t know about those fans. I thought it was unusal because San Diego has a laid-back rep. What is the general atmosphere at the park like?
August 13, 2005 at 8:35 pm
God bless you, David Bell. Kicks it twice. Should have been a double play. Let’s make ‘em pay.
August 13, 2005 at 8:36 pm
Gotta think Roberts speed shook up the 3B a bit there, causing the error.
August 13, 2005 at 8:36 pm
It’s a pretty festive atmosphere at Petco. Moreso, I think, than at the Q.
Okay, Klesko bunting? WTF?
August 13, 2005 at 8:37 pm
And now Lieberthal boxes a pitch. Runners at second and third, nobody out. Needless to say, we have to score at least one run here.
August 13, 2005 at 8:37 pm
I’m not feeling Klesko bunting.
August 13, 2005 at 8:40 pm
Yeah, I don’t ever want to see Klesko try to lay down a sacrifice bunt again. That was ugly. Not that his grounder to second was any better.
August 13, 2005 at 8:40 pm
It makes no sense that Klesko bats before Giles.
August 13, 2005 at 8:43 pm
Two down, nobody in. Unbelieveable. The Phillies are going to get out of this without any damage.
August 13, 2005 at 8:46 pm
Nothing. Sigh. Nice going, guys.
August 13, 2005 at 8:46 pm
It makes a lot of sense. Giles is our best hitter, having him behind Klesko forces them to pitch to Klesko with runners on or else face Giles in an even worse situation.
It should give Giles additional rbi chances too.
August 13, 2005 at 8:47 pm
That hurt.
August 13, 2005 at 8:50 pm
that was pathetic but normal for the Padres. Drive for show and putt for dough. All their heroics come with no one on. When the chips are down, they get the yips..
August 13, 2005 at 8:50 pm
Well, the better the hitter, the more opportunities you want him to have. Giles is by far our most valuable hitter. I think hitting him first or second would make more sense than fourth.
The pitched around Giles that inning, so it didn’t force them to pitch to him in an even worse situation.
August 13, 2005 at 8:51 pm
and with Sweeney’s numbers, Klesko shouldn’t hit ahead of him either.
August 13, 2005 at 8:53 pm
you arent listening. Giles behind Klesko was to force them to pitch to KLESKO!!
which they did, instead of intentionally walking him to face Giles with the bases loaded. Klesko just didnt come through. He(klesko) had the perfect rbi situation and failed, as did Sweeney and Loretta(a little less perfect chance)
August 13, 2005 at 8:56 pm
I am listening. I just don’t agree. I was responding to the second half of your setence — “or else face Giles in an even worse situation.”
August 13, 2005 at 8:57 pm
Sigh, it just keeps getting worse. Astacio really has pitched a beautiful game.
August 13, 2005 at 8:57 pm
Your No. 3 hitter should be your most feared hitter: Bonds, Manny Ramirez, etc.
August 13, 2005 at 8:57 pm
if they dont pitch to Klesko, they face giles with the bases loaded, right?
August 13, 2005 at 9:00 pm
OK, I understand that point. But we still don’t agree. Anyway, if you can’t get the No. 8 hitter out, get out of the league. I never buy that move.
August 13, 2005 at 9:01 pm
You need more than ONE guy to have an offense. Giles is not going to get pitched to, regardless.
We just couldnt come up with a hit, again.
But the Phillies get a chance with two out and they plate a run.
August 13, 2005 at 9:04 pm
I agree. You need more than one guy, and our offense is not bringing it. We wouldn’t have scored that inning with my batting order. Having said that, I don’t think our batting order makes sense, and the Klesko/Giles part is just one part that doesn’t make sense.
August 13, 2005 at 9:05 pm
Not looking like our night. The good news is, the rest of the division has already lost.
August 13, 2005 at 9:13 pm
I think I’ve had enough of Randa in the #2 hole.
August 13, 2005 at 9:18 pm
Here on the East coast, it’s already Loretta’s birthday.
August 13, 2005 at 9:20 pm
yes, its becoming obvious that Randa’s rep as a slugging 3rd baseman was entirely based upong playing in Cinncy. He is now slg .359 for us and hitting a paltry .250.
August 13, 2005 at 9:23 pm
we need someone in the lineup who’s knees dont get weak with runners in scoring position. We only score when the whole team is hitting and we have a lead and the pressure is off. Even Loretta is struggling to drive in runs.
August 13, 2005 at 9:24 pm
Klesko walk. Here we go.
August 13, 2005 at 9:25 pm
Hope Giles dont strike out LOOKING.
At least try to do something!
August 13, 2005 at 9:27 pm
We need dj to steal a base, sweeney might actually hit a single..
August 13, 2005 at 9:30 pm
crap, dj stole it but sweeney struck out.. well still a chance with runner in scoring position.
August 13, 2005 at 9:31 pm
I think Mark is our best rbi guy so hopefully he can get a bingle
August 13, 2005 at 9:33 pm
damn, I was hopeing that he would get a fat pitch to hit.. now it comes to Khalil..
August 13, 2005 at 9:35 pm
!! how did Khalil hit that pitch that far!!??
August 13, 2005 at 9:35 pm
Well, at least we got one run to take Astacio off the hook.
August 13, 2005 at 9:36 pm
damn, lo is just too slow, but Khalil comes through to at least tie it.
August 13, 2005 at 9:36 pm
Good hit by Greene. I think you had to send Loretta there, so …
August 13, 2005 at 9:37 pm
In all fairness to Lo, its hard to score from first unless you are Jackson or Roberts..
August 13, 2005 at 9:39 pm
Oh yeah Kev, definately had to send him. The way we have been struggling to score runs you got to take that chance.
August 13, 2005 at 9:40 pm
Trevor in a tie? Bochy should know better by now. Dammit…
August 13, 2005 at 9:42 pm
here we go…arrrrrrrgh!
August 13, 2005 at 9:43 pm
that was quick…and Bochy dont want to embarass his closer by pulling him so it might get worse
August 13, 2005 at 9:44 pm
Hoffman is so methodical and meticulous in his routine that when the routine is broken (i.e. not a save situation), he seems less effective. The numbers support this, I’m just too lazy to look em up.
August 13, 2005 at 9:45 pm
I think bringing in Hoffman is the right move. He just hasn’t responded well.
August 13, 2005 at 9:47 pm
Man, when the wheels come off, they really come off.
August 13, 2005 at 9:48 pm
pathetic!!!
August 13, 2005 at 9:49 pm
OK, this is officially a disaster.
August 13, 2005 at 9:51 pm
close the barn door, the horse is gone!
not much chance to take this one. we might get to see Nady try to hit a 3 run homer against wagner with nobody on.
August 13, 2005 at 9:55 pm
Wow, too bad that homer by Olivo doesn’t mean anything.
August 13, 2005 at 9:57 pm
Hey, what a great time to use Nady. He could hit a solo homer right here to cut the lead to 5-3 in the ninth.
August 13, 2005 at 10:04 pm
Tomorrow we play to avoid the series sweep and a losing homestand. And the Padres remain in first place by three games in the NL West.
August 13, 2005 at 10:10 pm
too bad we have to rely on CHP to stop the losing streak. I know he had a good game last time but I dont have a lot of faith in him. Maybe he can convince me tomorrow. Of course, if we dont score we cant win…
but thats another story.
August 13, 2005 at 11:04 pm
I would love to see the Nady debate addressed in a way other than fans/blogs. That’s not to say we don’t address it beautifully, but …
Have any of the people covering the team addressed this issue? I would love to hear the explanation from Bochy. It may be reasonable. I don’t have to agree, but it may be reasonable.
I don’t think Bochy is a genius, but I don’t think he is an idiot either. So I’m sure he has something reasonable to say on this issue. I do not believe Bochy has a doghouse, nor that Nady is it.
A good beat writer or columnist should say, hey, this is something lots of fans talk about, what gives?
August 13, 2005 at 11:35 pm
From a numbers and positional availablilty/capability perspective, it is not hard to see why Nady doesn’t play a lot:
1. He has not hit righties well at the major league level - his OPS is 9th among currently active Padres versus them. He had a Burroughs-like .661 OPS against them in 2003/2004. That is where most PA opportunities arise. Yes, he runs into pitches occasionally for HRs against them, but that is usually against finesse pitchers or scrub relievers or in Colorado. His BA and OBP are horrible against righties.
2. If one is talking about coming in as a pinch hitter and giving the team a lift with one swing of the bat, he has not shown that he can do that well, in the limited opportunities he has been given so far - 4 for 24, with 2 HBP, 4 BB, no XBH.
3. Sweeney and Fick are hitting very well this year.
4. a. The Padres traded for Joe Randa; b. Bochy doesn’t think Nady can play third.
Intuitively or perhaps emotionally, Geoff and others want Nady to play more, meaning against more righties (he plays every time against lefties). Maybe he would do better if he got more chances against righties; maybe not. While the team is still fighting for a playoff spot, that might not be a risk that Bochy considers worth taking.
August 14, 2005 at 12:26 am
Thanks for your thoughts, TF. Responding to your points:
1. Although Nady hadn’t hit righties particularly well in the past, that was changing earlier this year when he was getting more opportunities against them. Even now, he has a semi-respectable 735 OPS (not great, but better than Nevin, Burroughs, Jackson, and Blum to name a few Padres/former Padres who have more at-bats against RHP than Nady). He also has the best AB/HR ratio against right handers on the entire team. Better than Klesko, Sweeney, Giles, you name it. I don’t know precisely which pitchers he’s been pounding, but I can’t believe they’re all scrubs.
2. Nady isn’t a pinch hitter. Having him play irregularly, in a role to which he is unaccustomed, is setting him up for failure. To Nady’s credit, he’s done a real nice job this year despite being jerked around.
3. As I’ve said, I have no gripe with Sweeney. He’s playing great, ride the hot hand (and don’t let him run the bases late in games). Fick is a little different story in that he actually had to come in and catch for a while. No problem. My real issues were with Nevin and Burroughs.
4. Yes, the Padres traded for Randa because they would not even give Nady a shot at third base before making the determination that he could not handle the position. Why does the team have no problem throwing him into the role of pinch hitter, for which he is no less well suited? Or sticking Adam Eaton in the bullpen despite no previous experience there at this level?
Yeah, it is emotional. It’s damned frustrating to watch a team that struggles to score runs *repeatedly* pass over its best power source in favor of weaker options. I’m sure the folks in charge have their reasons, but I’ll be darned if I can figure out what they are. I suspect your comment about Bochy and his aversion to risk may have something to do with it. I can’t speak for him because I haven’t walked in the man’s shoes, but as a fan, it’s real irritating to watch one of the team’s best power hitters sit on the bench more often than not.
Honestly, if this is what Nady’s role is going to be with the Padres, we should have traded him for starting pitching and promoted someone like Jon Knott or Ben Johnson to take his place on the bench.
August 14, 2005 at 12:33 am
TF,
Nady has a 15.5 AB/HR rate against right handed pitching. Such raw power cannot be ignored. His limited playing time has to affect his consistency. It is not unreasonable to suggest that increased playing time would facilitate a higher BA/OBA. You have to find a spot for a guy with a .250 ISO unless he proves that he is incapable of hitting for any kind of average.
Nady can be no worse at third than Geoff Blum was at second, Ojeda was in right, Nevin/Sweeney are at first or than Fick behind the plate.
I have previously suggested that Nady be platooned at first with Sweeney and also platoon with Damian Jackson in center.
August 14, 2005 at 6:42 pm
Geoff, the thrust of my post on Nady was dealing with the present moment where Nady finds himself. You arguments seem primarily focused on the past, where we don’t have much disagreement, but we should be focused on why Nady isn’t getting more playing time now. That is why I mentioned how low his OPS against righties is for CURRENT Padres.
To the extent you had gripes about the past, and specifically Nady not playing over Burroughs or Nevin or Blum, I understand and am somewhat sympathetic. On the other side, Bochy had past performances to deal with when he made his initial decisions this year - in the past, Burroughs and Nevin had been better hitters against righties than Nady. It is difficult to overcome such predispositions and go with performance, but it took some time to reveal those things this year. Burroughs started off hot in April; Nevin, for all of his difficulties this year as a whole, was very clutch early, driving in 20 runs in April and 19 more in May. Bochy tends to stay with “proven” players longer, so that partially explains why he stuck with Nevin and Burroughs over Bochy. Blum and Jackson play more infield positions than Nady, so that accounts for at least a portion of their greater plate appearances against righties.
As for third base, Bochy’s decision not to play Nady has some basis. There were numerous reports out of spring training that Nady looked very poor at third - particularly in terms of footwork and throw accuracy. This apparently continued in pre-game practice sessions. Personally, I would have overlooked that to get Nady some starts at third over Burroughs, but the decision still is grounded in reality.
In the present, if he wants more PT, Nady has to produce more when he gets pinch hitting opportunities; he has to produce more when he gets spot starts against righties. He looked awful against Tejeda today.
For your information, Nady has homered off the following - Joe Kennedy (lefty scrub at Coors), Scott Dohmann (righty scrub RP at Coors), Ryan Vogelson (righty scrub RP), Brandon Lyon (righty closer in a 5-2 Diamondbacks lead in 9th), Greg Maddux (finesse righty, score not close at time), Gil Meche (righty scrub starter with reverse splits), Aaron Sele (righty scrub, released), Joel Piniero (righty scrub starter with reverse splits), DJ Houlton (righty rule V draftee), Wandy Rodriguez, Jeff Francis (at Coors), and Esteban Loiaza (finesse righty starter).
August 14, 2005 at 8:01 pm
Good stuff on the pitchers who have allowed homers to Nady this year. That is a pretty iffy bunch.
I agree Nady has to produce more against RHP, but here is the catch-22: How is he going to produce more against them if he isn’t given the opportunity? Getting maybe 5 PAs a week against righties doesn’t strike me as the best way to help him develop.
Yeah, I know the Pads are in the playoff hunt and maybe developing a player at the big league level isn’t the