Peavy Misses Bats, Padres Miss Winning
Tue, May 23, 2006
by Geoff Young
Yes, the Padres lost again Monday night, but in the process, right-hander Jake Peavy established a new franchise record for strikeouts in a game by fanning 16 Atlanta Braves. Yes, we’d all rather have the win, but no dice, so let’s take a look at Peavy’s record-setting night instead.
This was the second most dominant game I’ve ever seen by a pitcher (behind only Kerry Wood’s 20-strikeout performance in 1998). Atlanta hitters made contact — fair or foul — with fewer than 30% of Peavy’s offerings, and only one ball left the infield. Unfortunately, that one ball was a two-run homer off the bat of Ryan Langerhans that cost the Padres the game.
The only other pitches put in play all night against Peavy were a grounder to short by Chipper Jones in the first, a grounder to third by Jeff Francouer in the second that went for a single, a grounder to short by Todd Pratt in the second, grounders back to Peavy by Marcus Giles (for a single) and by Jones in the third, a grounder to short by Brian Jordan in the fourth, and a grounder to third by Edgar Renteria in the sixth.
Peavy struck out at least two batters in every inning. He fanned the final 5 batters he faced, and 11 of the last 13.
Here’s the overall breakdown by pitches:
- Pitches: 114
- Swinging strikes: 26 (22.8% of pitches — as a point of reference, Adam Dunn was at 18.5% in 2005)
- Called strikes: 16 (14.0%)
- Foul balls: 24 (21.1%)
- Balls: 40 (35.1%)
- Fair balls: 8 (7.0%)
And a lovely pie chart to go with it (ice cream is extra):
Here are Peavy’s numbers by time through the lineup. This table shows the batting line against him:
| Time | AB | H | HR | BB | SO | Pit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 38 |
| 2nd | 9 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 40 |
| 3rd | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 36 |
| Tot | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 114 |
And the chart below breaks out the numbers in the pie chart by time through lineup. Note that as the game wore on, called strikes and fair balls decreased, while swinging strikes and foul balls increased. Batters were taking more hacks at Peavy’s pitches but not having any more success making contact.
As the numbers would indicate, Peavy was dealing all night long. According to the readings on Channel 4’s telecast, his fastball was sitting at 90-94 mph and it was running back in on right-handed batters. Peavy hit 95 on a couple of pitches to Jones in the first, and his slider and changeup were moving all over the place.
It may be a cliche to say a guy made one bad pitch, but in this case it’s true. The only ball that left the infield while Peavy was on the mound ended up costing him the game. It’s a shame the record couldn’t have come with a victory, but still, kudos to Peavy on a start for the ages.
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May 23, 2006 at 6:48 am
That game broke my heart.
Smoltz had filthy stuff for somebody who only struck out 5. He missed a couple of strike calls because the ball moved so much so late. Almost makes up for the bad call on Roberts for strike 3 in the 7th.
Signs of life from Castilla or a one-time thing? Had a good at-bat before the single, actually drove a ball to Andruw’s waiting glove.
May 23, 2006 at 7:31 am
What a waste, if you ask me. Just a waste. Problem with the Pads is you can never tell if the Petco Curse is back or if the opposing pitcher is dealing.
Please, somebody give Matt Vasecursion (sic) some Vin Scully tapes to study so he can improve his “history” calls. Screaming the number of strikeouts each time is what my four year old does while fighting with my 6 year old.
Meanwhile, we’ve lost 4 in a row, nearly back to .500, and in the damned cellar again, so yes, great work Peavy and Smoltz, but we gotta start hitting and defending better.
May 23, 2006 at 8:18 am
Shorter IR: where’s the swagger?
May 23, 2006 at 8:26 am
I think that data is interesting fo rthe one reason both Smoltz and Peavy were getting squeezed later in the game.. I thought there were many strikes that weren’t called on both sides.
May 23, 2006 at 8:33 am
Also the Cards Steve Carlton set a record on Sept 15 1969 by striking out 19 and he also lost.
Ironically enough, looking at retrosheet… it was also a monday.
http://www.retrosheet.org/boxe.....LN1969.htm
May 23, 2006 at 8:33 am
Here’s a thought:
Why not leave Peavy in and let him go for 20? I mean, I know he threw 114 pitches, but . . . .
May 23, 2006 at 8:36 am
Why not leave Peavy in? Because you’re trying to win the game and protect the most valuable player on the team? Just a guess.
May 23, 2006 at 8:59 am
The score was only 2-1.
I didn’t see the game — was Jake laboring in the sixth and seventh or something?
I guess it comes down to his value as a hitter, which is negligible. But Peavy when he’s cruising is better than any relief pitcher the Pads have.
May 23, 2006 at 9:01 am
Correct myself — it was 2-0.
All right — a little less room for second-guessing on my part . . .
May 23, 2006 at 9:06 am
Warning: This is going to be a bring down post, so don’t read it if you’re not in the mood.
Last night’s game perfectly captures the futility and failings of this franchise throughout its history. Lose a No Hitter on a chopper over the 3B head, and subsequently lose the game, iirc. Set a franchise record for K’s by a pitcher (in just 7 innings!) and yet he still loses the game (on the only ball hit out of the infield!) because the team can’t even score two runs. Get No Hit by a guy on LSD, or by a guy who walked 7 batters, or by a guy who never pitched another quality game at the major league level. Sometimes this team just makes me sick!
May 23, 2006 at 9:11 am
Peavy was pulled because the Padres were down 2-0 and we had 7 outs left, with a man on first base. A HR there ties the game. As things played out, a single from Dave Roberts would have pulled us to 2-1, Piazza’s HR, if it happened, ties the game.
Peavy was never struggling. He was throwing 16 pitches per inning to get those Ks. What is the possible point in letting him throw 130 or more? Do you want to sell him a package vacation with Mark Prior for June?
You can question some of Bochy’s decisions. Why does Castilla continue to start, especially against RHP? Upper management may be mandating that Barfield and Gonzalez play as much as possible, which could explain why McAnulty wasn’t used. But pulling Jake was absolutely the right call.
May 23, 2006 at 9:18 am
I was at Hitchcock’s game when he struck out 15 and lost. That headache stayed with me for days.
May 23, 2006 at 12:34 pm
I agree 100% with pulling Jake when they did … I’m a firm believer in the long-term impact of high-pitch-count games … I understand it’s a bit fuzzy … but not so fuzzy that I leave Peavy in for the 8th … also given the value of sending up a pinch-hitter … it would have been a good decision with either of those elements … it was a no-brainer with both …
The one stat that deseves comment is the 40 balls (35% of his pitches) … reduce that number … have the offense score 3 runs … and then we’ll see Jake going for 20+ K’s …
May 23, 2006 at 12:46 pm
Lot’s of good writing on the concept of “Pitcher Abuse” can be found by googl’ing on “Pitcher Abuse Points” (ex. http://www.google.com/search?s.....use+points) … there’s pro’s & con’s to the research that’s been done … and perhaps my opinion is based primarily on my experience (ie. is anecdotal) … but it sure seems to make sense to me … how old is Jake? I do believe that younger arms benefit from less “abuse” …
May 23, 2006 at 1:01 pm
In reading some of the PAP/PAP3 articles, I came across this link … http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns.....42798.html … an article by Rob Neyer on “Win Shares” … which breaks down the Carter/Alomar for McGriff/Fernandez trade … eh, that one didn’t work out so well, I guess … but it makes me think it’d be fun to break down all of Towers’ moves to see how he’s done … maybe Richard & Lance will do that if/when they finish the Top 100
(ack, that reminds me, I *STILL* haven’t sent them my write-up on #80 :-()
May 23, 2006 at 1:08 pm
Perhaps I missed an appeal for this in previous comment threads (I try to read them all) … but Lance *REALLY* wants somebody to comment on #88 = Bob Barton … http://sdpf.blogspot.com/2006/.....arton.html
Hey, hank! Don’t *you* remember Bob Barton? C’mon, share a story ’bout him with the FF readers …
May 23, 2006 at 1:58 pm
I have to admit that I wanted to see Peavy try for 20 (I thought he had an excellent shot at it) but it was better for his career to take him out. I still remember Clemens’ first 20 strikeout game in ‘86 and Peavy looked just as good last night.
The amazing thing to me is that at some point the hitters become aware of all the strikeouts and must be trying to not strike out but Peavy mows them down anyway.
May 23, 2006 at 2:24 pm
I think one of the guys at Beyond the Box Score did that for a different GM…
May 23, 2006 at 3:00 pm
Major props to Peavy! Wish I was there.
May 23, 2006 at 3:20 pm
Coming in at #86 is the great Juan Bonilla.
May 23, 2006 at 5:16 pm
The Boner! Where is he now?
May 25, 2006 at 10:29 pm
“Pat Says” is frustrated?
I’m a Cubs fan, there’s no more I can say. No frustration tops this. Trump card.