first pitch: 5:05 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chan Ho Park (3-3, 4.26 ERA) vs Zach Jackson (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
While looking for something else, I stumbled onto this:
| G | BA | OBP | SLG | RC/27 | BB/PA | ISO | AB/HR | RS/G | RA/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Day | 21 | .279 | .361 | .448 | 6.01 | .109 | .170 | 32.6 | 6.05 | 4.14 |
| Night | 37 | .234 | .298 | .348 | 3.46 | .078 | .114 | 49.7 | 3.51 | 4.30 |
| Stats courtesy of ESPN. | ||||||||||
Vinny Castilla is a remarkable .183/.224/.202 in 116 plate appearances in night games. He’s created 2.5 runs in that span. Tonight’s starter, Chan Ho Park, has created 3.2 in 15 night game plate appearances.
As a group, the team stops hitting, stops drawing walks, and stops driving the ball with any authority after dark. The pitching staff seems relatively unaffected by this phenomenon, so I’m at a loss for a hypothesis, much less an explanation. Last year the team did better at night than during the day, which suggests that it may be a fluke.
Ah well, such are the things I think about when the Padres are in fourth place.
I tried getting all this stuff done before a few days ago but it backfired but here it is.. I tried getting this out on Sunday/Monday.. it didn’t work.. so here’s something about some Padres.
____
So we know the key to any deal is to get anyone whose transactions have crossed with Matt Herges. By the way, Herges still pitches for the Marlins so all these numbers can change. Also, I believe all these numbers do not account the beating by the Brew Crew last night.
Anyhow I ran a WARP comparison which is Wins Above Replacement Player. This was for a few days ago but technical problems (html) have brought it here to shed some insight. I’m going to use WARP-1 and WARP-3, WARP-3 adjusts for short seasons. WARP is measured in wins.
WARP-1
Matt Herges (with SD in 2003) 1.9
Matt Herges (since trade to SF in 03 to present) 2.5
Clay Hensley (05-06) 3.3
Chris Young (06) 2.2
WARP-3
Herges (SD) 2.0
Herges (since) 2.8
Hensley 5.0
Young 4.8
One thing to be considered, with the WARP-1 Herges put up as a Padre, the WARP-3 suggests that not trading him would have only helped the Padres in 0.1 wins that year. But looking at the WARP numbers the trade (Herges for Hensley) has brought about 3.3 wins (to today) above what the Padres could have put replacement level pitcher if they didn’t trade Herges. I know people can’t bash Kevin Towers for this deal, here’s just another reason. And overall, for players Herges has been moved for who’ve become Padres (Young and Hensley), it is worth 5.5 wins so far this year alone and projects to be worth 9.8 wins over the rest of this year. And then again Chris Young’s WARP can improve if he keeps coming close to no-hitters.
Herges was a reliever who put up two generally good years, WARP wise (4.8 and 5.0), at 30-31 with the Dodgers and then put up one of his best career ERAs (2.86- age 33 season) with San Diego. However since the end of 2004 when he had 23 saves with the Giants (yet, a 5.23 ERA and a 1.2 WARP: shows you what saves mean sometimes), his WARP has hitting replacement level (.4, -.2 in SF/AZ 05 and .1 in 06).
Now look at Scott Cassidy, he’s entering his age 30 season and putting up generally career high numbers. He holds a 1.61 ERA right now, an obvious high. His strikeouts per 9 projected for the year (8.0) is .7 higher than his career average and his hits per 9 is projected to be 2.0 under last year’s number. His WARP-1 is 1.5 and projects to be 3.3 in WARP-3. PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’ projection tool says Cassidy’s 90th percentile performance is a 3.29 ERA and a WARP-1 of 2.5.
Brian Sweeney is entering his age 32 season and putting up a 2.79 ERA entering last night. His WARP-1 stands at 1.0 and projects out to 2.1 in WARP-3. Sweeney’s Equivalent Average, which is a measure of offensive value per out shown as EQA, in San Diego (04 and 06) stands at -.226. Herges’ in his one Padre year was -.227 in EQA and 2.0 in WARP-3.
Now I’m not saying that Cassidy and Sweeney are formulaic to perform like Matt Herges fell off after being traded from San Diego. Sweeney doesn’t even have a PECOTA card. Cassidy’s comparables draw the likes of Brian Boehringer, Turk Wendell and John Johnstone. However, if the Padres fall out of the race, getting prospects for relievers like Cassidy/Sweeney would not be a bad idea.
It’s also worth noting that not everyone turns into Scott Linebrink, but that’s another conversation for another day. Thoughts?
I guess I understand know one hanging around for the padre game, although they are winning.
Vinny with an RBI! Padres up 4-2 after Top of 6th …
News from Ft. Wayne … http://www.fortwayne.com/mld/journalgazette/sports/14757410.htm …
Daryl Jones selcted for the Midwest League All-Star team.
Outfielder Nic Crosta was promoted to San Diego’s single-A affiliate, the Lake Elsinore Storm, prior to the game. Crosta leads the Midwest League with a .382 average. He is second on the team with seven home runs and third with 30 RBI.
(note: I learned from PeterF that Crosta is a bit old for Midwest League … 23 iirc … so it’s a good thing to see him move up … it’s time to see if he can make a jump (or 2))
Ah, the news from Ft. Wayne was even better …
Jones was one of five Wizards named to the Eastern Division All-Star team. Outfielder Will Venable, infielders Kyle Blanks and Seth Johnston and pitcher Brandon Higelin were also selected.
Pitching details thru 6 full …
Pitches-strikes – C Park 82-53; Z Jackson 87-54.
Ground balls-fly balls – C Park 8-7; Z Jackson 13-3.
Batters faced – C Park 24; Z Jackson 28.
… so far, so good for Chan Ho!
Ry – is that what you were trying to say? That Cassidy was gonna give up an HR to Brady Clark to give up the lead versus the Brewers and that the Padres should trade him for prospects before that happens?
AGonz with “homer to deep right” …
Vinny with “homer to deep left” …
BACK-TO-BACK!!!
How do you like me now!
Wtg corner guys…
Here’s what WC @ BP says about Jake today …
Much the same thing was seen in Milwaukee on Tuesday when Jake Peavy took the hill against the Brewers. Peavy on extra rest went just 3 2/3 innings as well, showing a lack of command, though his velocity was near normal. Peavy was “busy†on the mound, according to one observer, appearing to struggle with his mechanics and trying many different things, while getting visibly frustrated at times with his performance. Peavy’s recovery from this start will need to be watched closely–it doesn’t appear the extra rest helped what’s going on inside his pitching shoulder.
hank – ‘Wtg’?
Bottom of 8th looked good …
- S. Linebrink relieved S. Cassidy
- C. Lee grounded out to second
- P. Fielder struck out swinging
- C. Koskie grounded out to first
… I assume Hoffy’s warmin’ up!
Wtg=way to go
I guess I am dating myself…lol
Well Hell’s Bell’s …
Bottom 9th: Milwaukee
- T. Hoffman relieved S. Linebrink
- B. Hall flied out to deep left center
- C. Moeller fouled out to first
- J. Cirillo hit for M. Wise
- J. Cirillo grounded out to second
… winner, winner, chicken dinner!
WTG Hoffy!
hank – date yourself? seems like you’re a man of the 21st century!
http://www.netlingo.com/right.cfm?term=WTG
Wow, I was looking at Dave Roberts’ “gamelog” (looking for some SBs for my roto team) … check out what he did from May 1 thru May 12th … hmmm, I seem to remember the Padres winning a bunch of games during that time … cause or effect? Either way, it was a heckuva run … for DR and for the Padres … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6305/gamelog
Good news, I s’pose, for Estes …
Left-handed pitcher Shawn Estes, on the disabled list with a strained left elbow, had successful Tommy John surgery by Dr. Lewis Yocum at the Surgery Center in Los Angeles. “It all went well,” Bochy said.
… but I can’t believe there’s any possible way he pitches in MLB again …
Anyone watching have details on this …
San Diego right fielder Brian Giles robbed Jackson of a possible home run in his first major league at-bat in the second inning.
… perhaps we’ll have video @ mlb.com tomorrow …
Estes will get a shot sometime next year, not with SD, but with somebody. Tommy John isn’t career-ending surgery in the least.
And I think it’s time the Pads deal CHP now…if they can. His value will never be higher, and you have to hold your breath every time he pitches. He’s just not that good any more (was he ever?) – but his stats are better than he is. Maybe some team in desperate need of starting pitching (Hello Boston?) will over pay and take him off our hands. I just absolutely can’t trust him anymore.
LynchMob, I was triyng to say look at the wins a trade like a guy like Herges got us (Hensley mostly and then Young who was involved in a past deal for Herges). That’s been worth it’s weight in gold I’m guessing you’d all say but look at also the fact that Cassidy and Sweeney are performing WAY past conventional expectations. And to stay grounded, people always complain about the trade that brings the prospect but sometimes that prospect is worth it when you consider the parameters. I’d like to field any questions anyone has if y’all read what I got. But I wasn’t prognosticating that Cassidy would get his 2nd blown save of the year tonight at all.
Well, to be all devil’s advocate, a blown save is a pretty misleading stat – i mean, Cassidy came in in the 7th and wasn’t going to pitch the rst of the game, right? Remember when MLB did away with the GWRBI? It’s about time the same fate befell the Blown Save.
well no I’m not talking about that David I was just bringing up the fact that it was his 2nd.. Blown saves are important to consider because they show if the reliever was effective at holding runners on and inherited runners and such. But take my first point on the first comment in this pregame and I might agree with the trade Park philosophy if things go sour just like I tried to show trade Sweeney/Cassidy could be possible. If you get a clay hensley-type for oone of these guys, would you consider it a success? It’d be interesting to study all that stuff, I might write up some more stuff on all this. But refer to comment#1 david and if you have questions on that fire away.
by the way: I can’t comment much on this individual game cause I didn’t watch it but it sounds like a great win.
After reading your very well-organized comment, I would have to say that we probably couldn’t get anybody of worth for Park – not because he’s not having an okay season – he is pitching very well in comparison to the last 6 or so years. But unlike a minimum wage guy like Herges, Park makes a lot of money.
As far as dealing Cassidy/Sweeney, if the Padres fall out of the race I could see it, especially Sweeney. But Cassidy has never really gotten a shot, and, while I know the numbers are bad, have you watched him pitch this year? His slider is nasty, and his fastbal is moving. Maybe he is a Linebrink type – maybe he’s figured something out later in his career, or changed his delivery, or got in shape or something. But his slider, at times, looks like Aki Otsuka’s big frisbee did the last couple years, unhittable. Of course, though, he might just be having his career year. The problem is, how much value can you really get for a middle reliever. While we all like Clay Hensley, he’s not an ace, or even a #3 starter. He’s pitched well but I don’t think he’s gonna win 15 games ever.
Sorry, all this is just thinking out loud. I just think that the Padres should try to get some value for Park if they can.