Vacation Recovery Mode
Wed, Nov 28, 2007
by Geoff Young
Hi there. Sorry for going incommunicado on you. We were off in Hawai’i doing the Thanksgiving/anniversary thing; I’d intended to post a few updates from yonder, but first I lost my motivation and then I lost my wi-fi (the in-laws are pretty far off the grid). Anyway, I hope everyone had a good holiday.
One of the benefits of being off line for so long is that I got to catch up on my reading. I finished David Browne’s Dream Brother: The Lives and Music of Jeff and Tim Buckley, and got well into The Book (finally!) and Neil Peart’s Roadshow. Even managed to read the first few entries in The Best American Essays of the Century, edited by Joyce Carol Oates. Good stuff.
I also met this gentleman while I was over there. Turns out he’s a regular customer at the family farm. I sold him some bananas and we talked baseball for about 20 minutes.
Catching up today. If you’ve sent me an email over the past week or so, it’s on my to-do list. Thursday we’ll have the next installment of the Poltz interviews, Friday we’ll do the link thing, and then next week we’ll get back to our usual shenanigans. Or is it hijinx? I always forget…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
November 28, 2007 at 7:17 am
Good morning and welcome back G.Y.
You may want to sit down for this G.Y. but according to Scott Miller at CBS, your man crush may be making his triumphant return to San Diego.
From CBS:
“The Pirates, with new GM Neal Huntington directing yet another rebuilding process, are discussing sending corner outfielder Xavier Nady (.278 batting average, 20 homers, 72 RBI in ‘07) and center fielder Nate McLouth (.258, 13, 38, 22 steals) to San Diego for third base prospect Chase Headley (.330, 20, 78 for Double-A San Antonio). ”
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/10498424/2
November 28, 2007 at 7:39 am
The Pirates may be discussing that trade with themselves, but I’d find it hard to believe it would get past the receptionist with the Padres. Nady is Glen Allen Hill. Is a 275/330/475 mediocre defensive outfielder who is about to get expensive worth our best prospect? I don’t see why Headley couldn’t be exactly that, with more upside.
If the Padres weren’t willing to trade Headley for a good young Twins pitcher, I can’t see them making that deal. Unless they really see something special in McLouth.
November 28, 2007 at 7:47 am
#2: Agreed. For as much as I like Nady and want to see him do well, I’m not thrilled with this idea at all. I still can’t shake the images of McLouth “playing” left field at Petco in September.
November 28, 2007 at 8:07 am
I was about to post the same rumor and see how people responded. My thought was that this is probably not enough for Headley, but I guess it depends on how McClouth can man CF.
November 28, 2007 at 8:32 am
I wouldn’t be surprised if Headley’s total career production is pretty similar to Nady’s, even though they’d do it differently. But Headley’s going to be in everybody’s top 25 prospect lists. If you trade him now, get something really good and really valuable. Don’t overpay for the one-stop convenience of filling two positions with one trade.
November 28, 2007 at 8:35 am
4.
This trade sounds totally dumb to me. Don’t get me wrong, I did love Nady and wished we could have gotten Cammy for something else but he isn’t worth Headley. I don’t think it’s all that unrealistic to think that Headley couldn’t produce about the same if not better numbers than Nady did last year as TW said. McLouth looked ridiculous at Petco in LF field last year mis-playing 2 balls that should have been automatic outs (if I remember correctly).
On the other hand… Nady and McClouth would both appear to be useful on the team. Nady could be a back up plan for Giles both this year if his knee responds poorly and next year when OG is gone. McClouth could for all I know be a world class CF’r and appears to have good speed but he just didn’t do anything to impress me in the handful of times I saw him last season.
If KT wasn’t willing to pull the trigger on Headley for Garza then he won’t do it for Nady… I hope.
The article does say that KT is talking Peavy though. At least we heard something the Padres rumor front has been dead for weeks now and it was killing me!
November 28, 2007 at 9:07 am
1. I think the writer either just made that up or as Tom wrote its a one way conversation; but I tend to believe the former. One of the top prospects in the Pirates organization is third baseman Neil Walker - so the Pirates would probably be much more interested in filling other holes.
The Pirates however could move Nady back to San Diego for someone much less valuable just to get rid of his salary and open up a spot for a young guy that is in the 1-3 stages of his MLB career.
I liked Nady too and maybe if you plugged him into LF he would be fine, but he doesn’t have the OBP skills that the Padres brass seems to covet - or else you would still see Ben Johnson and Josh Barfield in town.
November 28, 2007 at 9:08 am
Also is there a link for the rumor of Headley for Garza?
November 28, 2007 at 9:11 am
8: That’s a HSL ‘07 oldie by now.
November 28, 2007 at 9:19 am
More Padres stuff.
I like the idea of Clement, Colon or Prior coming in and working with Balsley and Bud Black if the price is right.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....ors-1.html
November 28, 2007 at 9:26 am
8.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....ing-t.html
This is the only thing I can find now but I seem to remember reading something that said a little bit more about the Padres and Twins having actual “talks” involving the two. It was a while ago.
November 28, 2007 at 9:33 am
Not a whole lot here but it’s new so I’ll post it.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
November 28, 2007 at 9:33 am
Did anyone come across the exchange between Bill Conlin, dinosaur columnist for the Philly Daily News, and a Philly blogger? Hilarious. What a [insert offensive word here, but I like the one that starts with D and ends with E and sorta rhymes with moose].
November 28, 2007 at 9:52 am
8 , 11: Here’s a link to the original source.
http://www.startribune.com/twi.....36123.html
The article never states that Headley for Garza was discussed. It’s possible the reporter didn’t dig very deeply, and that the Twins offered Baker or Slowey for Headley. If Headley’s value really is comparable to Young and Upton, you almost have to move him now…and hope that Kouzmanoff doesn’t get hurt.
November 28, 2007 at 9:53 am
13: No. Is it online?
November 28, 2007 at 9:57 am
13.
It is pretty good. I imagine this is pretty much how an off air argument with Philly Billy might go as well.
http://crashburnalley.com/?p=47
November 28, 2007 at 10:11 am
14. I haven’t seen Garza pitch, but that is the type of deal that I could see the Padres making if Headley was involved. The Padres would control Garza’s rights for five years - and pitching is at a premium.
Garza’s stats are pretty good and Baseball America had him as the Twins #1 prospect last year.
http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....arza.shtml
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....62913.html
However I don’t think the Padres see him as a potential #2 or #3 starter as BA claims or they probably would have pulled the trigger. Also if he is that good, the Twins wouldn’t be moving him either.
November 28, 2007 at 10:29 am
17: They might be waiting to see who falls to them in free agency, or hoping to get another young pitcher in a later deal, but I agree with the general idea. Maybe they’re hoping to use Headley in a bigger deal.
If the statistically oriented Padre front office doesn’t see Garza as a potential 2-3, they’re using some different kind of math. They were counting on Hensley as a 3 before this year and his minor league numbers pale beside Garza’s.
November 28, 2007 at 11:42 am
Re: all Nady for Headley talk, I’m not that hot on the deal I mostly posted it to bust G.Y’s man crush on Nady.
November 28, 2007 at 11:55 am
From ESPN Rumor section:
“According to the St. Paul Pioneer Press, the Twins are considering trading right-handed pitcher Matt Garza to the Diamondbacks for outfielder Carlos Quentin.”
November 28, 2007 at 12:23 pm
Report out of St. Paul says the Twins and Rays are close on a deal that would send Garza, Bartlett, and Rincon to TB for Delmon Young (!), Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
November 28, 2007 at 1:08 pm
re: 17
The Twins are interested in trading him because they have lots of No. 1 and No. 2 starters or potential starters of that caliber. It is a heavy strength for them, so they can afford to trade him.
November 28, 2007 at 1:08 pm
21.
If I were the Rays I would have a really hard time getting rid of Delmon Young. Then again the would be building a really really solid core group of pitchers. They have top pitching prospects out of the wazoo and adding Garza would help. The only way to compete in that division may be to just pitch your ass off and hope to score a run or two.
November 28, 2007 at 1:20 pm
23: They’ve got a load of position players, too, especially if Pena keeps hitting. I don’t know if I’d make the move with Young yet, since they probably can’t win until 09 or 10, but Garza’s a heck of a young pitcher.
I’m surprised they have to give up Harris, who has outplayed Bartlett. You’d think Young would be enough to get Garza without taking the lesser SS and giving the Twins a CF.
November 28, 2007 at 1:37 pm
I don’t think Harris can play a competent shortstop, though. He was a big reason for Tampa Bay’s awful defense last year. Bartlett has a really good defensive reputation, so he’s probably a 30 run upgrade on defense. Fixing the defense to help out their young pitchers was one of the Rays’ big priorities.
November 28, 2007 at 1:45 pm
24.
Yeah you would think Young would be enough. I suppose whoever is at SS is just keeping it warm for Brignac anyways. They could just go with the all insanely talented young player lineup.
Longoria
Brignac
Upton
Crawford
Dukes
Young / Garza
Kazmir
Jackson
Davis
Nieman
Shields
Sonnanstine
McGee
That’s a pretty f-ing talented bunch of players. If any number of those guys turn out to be anything close to what they are projected the Rays could be legit in a couple of seasons.
November 28, 2007 at 1:48 pm
25: Yeah. I’m not sure about their defensive value, but if the Rays see it that way, they’d want to upgrade.
26: Then you spend the young player’s cheapest years when you’re almost certain not to win. They might be better served making sure all their young players are as polished in the minors as possible, so there’s less major league learning curve, even if the youngsters are chomping at the bit. A first step would be making sure your minor league teams are as accommodating and professional as possible, so you don’t have Dukes and Young mouthing off about how terrible things are in AA and AAA.
November 28, 2007 at 1:52 pm
No player is a 30-run upgrade on defense.
November 28, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Re: 27 the rays need to do two thing
A. move out of Tampa and
B. Move out of the AL east.
If tampa could expand its payroll to be about the same as the Padres within the next 2 or 3 years they would really be able to do some damage, but because of ownership, a poor stadium and a poor location I dont think they will ever be able to do that, they will be left selling off their stars for spare parts until they move out of Florida.
November 28, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Re: 28 Ozzi Smith over Geoff Blum?
November 28, 2007 at 2:02 pm
According to BA, Brian Barton of the Indians is available in the Rule V draft. They describe him as a five tool player who can play all three outfield positions, although they express some concerns about attitude that seem kind of silly and overblown to me. If we could get him for nothing, he’d be worth a shot as a fifth outfielder, with potential to develop into more. If he doesn’t work out, you just give him back to the Indians and only wasted $50,000.
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....65252.html
November 28, 2007 at 2:07 pm
R: 31 not bad idea but I think it would depend on if they got with a 5 or 6 man bench next year.
http://thebaseballcube.com/pla.....on-3.shtml
November 28, 2007 at 2:10 pm
29: Teams are making a lot of money now, but yeah, the Rays are up against it in a division with 2 of the best 4 teams in baseball.
31: We might want to trade for him before the draft, since he may not make it to us.
November 28, 2007 at 2:20 pm
Re: 33 I agree that they could expand payroll if they wanted but I dont think they would ever be able to get in the $70 M range in Tampa with their stadium.
November 28, 2007 at 2:21 pm
28: The worst shortstops in the majors last year (Jeter and Hanley Ramirez) were about -20 to -25 runs over the year. The best fielding shortstops (Tulowitzki, Tony Pena, Reyes) are at about +20 runs per year. Bartlett is usually ranked around +5 to +10 runs. If Harris were as bad as the worst shortstops in the league, which he has a reputation as, Bartlett would be a 25 to 30 run upgrade defensively.
November 28, 2007 at 2:24 pm
34: According to Ballparks.com, the Rays have to be out of Tropicana by 2010. Dang. Not only do you spend 10 years as the punching bag of the AL East, with every other team a big spender, but you’ve got to move into a nicer place or the Yankees and Red Sox aren’t going to stop by and beat your heads in anymore.
November 28, 2007 at 2:27 pm
Re: 36 really? why do they have to be out by 2010? Tropicana is only 16 years old, someone call the dodgers and tell them to get out of the S—hole that they play in.
November 28, 2007 at 2:29 pm
37: Ballparks.com doesn’t say. That may be the kind of threat issued by MLB at the behest of the TB owners to help blackmail the locals into building another stadium.
November 28, 2007 at 2:31 pm
Re: 38 ha thats crazy Tropicana is only 16 years old. Did they really do that bad of a job designing it?
November 28, 2007 at 2:32 pm
hey atleast in 2011 it will be the Las Vegas Rays!
November 28, 2007 at 2:35 pm
GY … tell me more about Glenn Mickens … 1953 was not a good year for that 22-year-old … dude got pounded! He did get to play with Jackie Robinson, after following in his footsteps at UCLA …
November 28, 2007 at 2:37 pm
41: That’s a Moonlight Graham career length.
November 28, 2007 at 2:42 pm
31.
Brian Barton would be a good pick up but TW is right about trading for him. Odds are someone is going to pick him up and the Indians know it so why not offer a player? It shouldn’t take anyone of value. He is worth the flyer for sure.
November 28, 2007 at 2:47 pm
Re: 43 Think they would take Sledge ::crosses fingers::?
November 28, 2007 at 2:49 pm
30, 35: Touche
November 28, 2007 at 2:55 pm
I don’t mind this Nady/McLouth thing if there’s something else coming over also. Not just for those two though.
November 28, 2007 at 2:56 pm
44.
I was thinking more along the lines of Stauffer or Thompson. There are probably a bunch of guys that fit the bill. Barton could be a real option in the outfield for a long time and we are getting nothing out of a bunch of guys we might be able to flip for him. It seems like a no loose situation to me but what do I know. Hamilton, Soria and KCam seemed to have worked out ok.
November 28, 2007 at 2:58 pm
46.
If we are sending Headley to Pittsburgh and we are not getting Snell, Gorzelany or McClutchen back I’m really not very interested.
November 28, 2007 at 3:00 pm
Re: 47 the nice thing about trading for hime is that the Pads can put him on the 40 man roster and keep him in AAA if he does not make the team out of ST.
November 28, 2007 at 3:04 pm
McLouth is a useful part though.
November 28, 2007 at 3:14 pm
Re: 50 so is Headley
November 28, 2007 at 3:19 pm
#41: Very cool dude. Spent a lot of time in the minors (he mentioned the PCL and Montreal), then coached at UCLA for many years before moving to Hawai’i. He asked about the SD college scene (specifically he was curious about what happened to Jim Dietz and John Cunningham after they retired), told me about some work he’s doing around the globe with former UCLA head coach Gary Adams:
http://www.bruinbaseballalumni.com/id3.html
We also chatted about right-hander Tyler Yates, one of the few big leaguers ever to come out of Kaua’i. Mickens was a really sharp guy and I’m sure he had all kinds of great stories; I wish I could have picked his brain a little more, but seriously, he was just there to buy bananas.
November 28, 2007 at 3:22 pm
Indications are we are offering arbitration to Barrett and Cameron. The front office isn’t/wasn’t sure on Brocail or Bradley, but Houston again gave us a draft pick by signing a free agent early. It also sounds like Kouzmanoff will stay at third base and Headley will get some time in the outfield in spring training to see how he handles it.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
November 28, 2007 at 3:30 pm
Tim Kurkjian just said on ESPN that the six-player, Young-to-the-Twins is close to happening tonight.
November 28, 2007 at 4:05 pm
What are the chances Hensley’s our #5 starter next year?
November 28, 2007 at 4:41 pm
Re: 55 I know they will give him a shot at it along with alot of others it all just depends on how he rebounds.
November 28, 2007 at 6:21 pm
I just bought my Bill James Handbook for 2008. Here are some of the treats in it:
Jake Peavy had the sixth-best OPS among pitchers.
Mike Cameron had the fourth-worst strikeout rate.
Greg Maddux led the league in percentage of pitchers in the strike zone (57.6) and fewest pitches per batter (3.26).
Heath Bell is in the top of many relief pitching categories.
Josh Bard was second-worst at throwing base stealers out behind Jason Kendall.
The most suspicious stat at first glace would be the pitching Win Shares in the NL: Webb 22, Peavy 21.
November 28, 2007 at 6:39 pm
A couple player projections:
Chase Headley: 310/409/522 in 467 at-bats. Kouzmanoff’s projections were high for last season, but they were probably about right, if you throw out April. I don’t know much about the guy, I say put him in left and let him hit.
Jon Lieber, who could sign with the Padres: 10-8, 4.04 ERA, 107 Ks, 29 walks in 167 innings.
I plan to put up the 2008 projections on the players on my site in the next week.
November 28, 2007 at 6:54 pm
Don’t get me wrong, I like Headley. But it’s possible his value will never be higher than now.
November 28, 2007 at 7:55 pm
59: I think that it’s more than possible. I think (given the struggles that 1st year players often have) that his value is almost certainly at the highest point that it will be over the next two-three years.
November 28, 2007 at 8:07 pm
57: That’s because Win Shares are terrible.
November 28, 2007 at 8:18 pm
61: Our humble host refers to WS a fair amount.
November 28, 2007 at 9:01 pm
#61, 62: Tools in and of themselves aren’t terrible; problems arise only when those tools are misapplied. You can use a kitchen knife to drive a nail into the wall, but you’re better off with a hammer.
My question in response to #61 would be, what are you trying to measure? Or more fundamentally, what are you trying to learn?
November 28, 2007 at 9:28 pm
Looks like Garza is worth more than we thought-The D-Rays had to give up Delmon Young to get him…
November 28, 2007 at 11:59 pm
63: I’m fairly certain that there isn’t anything Win Shares measures that there isn’t another stat (or combination of stats) that measures it more accurately.
November 29, 2007 at 1:22 am
Nice read on Bo Jackson:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....=bojackson
November 29, 2007 at 3:55 am
66
That was a great article. I spotted it last night — very interesting stuff.
I went to Penn State with Michael Weinreb. I was actually the sports editor for the Daily Collegian when Mike was a sportswriter.
Of course, I had absolutely nothing to do with his fantastic writing ability. Anyway, he was a good guy, and it’s nice to see him having some success. His article earlier in the year on the 1987 PSU Miami National championship game was also a good read. Of course, I am pretty biased on that topic.
November 29, 2007 at 4:01 am
67 - I went to Penn State myself, circa ‘90.
November 29, 2007 at 6:26 am
#65: True, but that’s not to say that win shares doesn’t have its uses. I have yet to find a better way to measure performance of large numbers of players across time, e.g., an entire draft class.
November 29, 2007 at 7:20 am
I always thought Win Shares were designed to be a way to measure a player’s total contribution (offense, defense, pitching) in one easy to undertand number. I don’t think James would try to argue that they’re a highly accurate stat, just that it gives you a quick idea of a player’s value.
53: It’s looking more and more like we’ll have Cameron back in CF next year, it’s the easiest and most boring solution. I guess there are worse things that could happen but I was really hoping for something interesting and, dare I say, exciting, to happen in the off season. Geoff Jenkins and Matt Clement would be mildly interesting pickups but hardly exciting moves.
For those who are interested, Kevin Kouzmanoff is going to be at the El Cajon Cox store on Saturday from 12-1pm, signing autographs for free.
November 29, 2007 at 4:19 pm
67
I’m class of 92. Dad and grandpa went there. My family is from State College — so, really, my mind was made up by the time I was about 10.
November 29, 2007 at 4:20 pm
I meant 68
November 29, 2007 at 6:07 pm
SLEDGE SIGNED A 2 YEAR DEAL WITH JAPANS NIPPON HAM FIGHTERS FOR 2.85 MIL YES
best moves weve had this offseason have been NOT signing blum and brocail, and allowing slegde to go to japan! woo hoo