Padres Acquire Edmonds
Sat, Dec 15, 2007
by Geoff Young
The Padres are about to pick up center fielder Jim Edmonds from St. Louis for minor-league third baseman David Freese. Reportedly, the Cardinals also will be sending $1 million, which is why the deal hasn’t been formally announced yet.
Edmonds is in decline, and the Pads will need a contingency plan, but I like this move. They’re essentially signing him to a 1-year, $7 million deal. Like the acquisitions of Randy Wolf and Tadahito Iguchi (and the re-signing of Greg Maddux), it’s a relatively low-risk move.
The last time San Diego brought in a guy that everyone else had written off, it worked out pretty well. Who’s to say that lightning won’t strike twice?
Even if it doesn’t, the Padres aren’t giving up a top-shelf prospect here. I like David Freese, but he’s stuck behind better options. Here’s what I’d written about him for the book:
Freese, who hails from the same school that produced big-leaguers Marlon Anderson and Luis Gonazalez, put up excellent numbers in the California League in 2007. That’s nice, but as a 24-year-old, anything less would have been disappointing. I saw Freese play several times at Elsinore, and he reminds me of current Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff. Both hit the ball hard to the middle of the diamond, with Freese showing good power to right-center. There has been talk that Freese might move behind the plate. He’s probably too old to become a big-league regular, but he could have a career.
I hope Freese exceeds my expectations in St. Louis, but I don’t think the Padres gave up much to get a player that will help them in the short term. Seeing that the club came within a few outs of reaching the post-season for a third straight year, I’d say the short term is a good place to be thinking about just now.
What about the future? Adrian Gonzalez, Jake Peavy, and Chris Young are under long-term deals. Next step would appear to be locking up Khalil Greene.
Not everyone is going to be part of a team’s foundation. Once you’ve put the building blocks in place, why overspend on peripherals? Yeah, I’d have loved to see Kosuke Fukudome come here or even Mike Cameron return for another couple of years. At the same time, I’m glad that the big money is being invested in guys who will still be making a difference 3-4 years from now.
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December 15, 2007 at 9:41 am
Always the voice of reason
December 15, 2007 at 10:19 am
Man, I really hope Edmonds is in center for all 162 games. That’s impossible — but maybe 130-140 games? We need a backup plan. If I had to wager I’d say Edmonds will break down roaming Petco’s large expanse. Hope I’m wrong though. Lock up Khalil!!!!
December 15, 2007 at 10:38 am
Love your analysis of this Geoff, and I have a lot of people will be feeling better about this move this morning. I think with AZ making their splash moves yesterday, everyone sees us going after Edmonds and it just hurts that much more.
I, for one, am glad to see Cameron on his way out. I really was down on him for most of last year - and while I will not discount his contributions to our team the past few years - I did frequently feel that his defense was significantly overrated while his offense really hurt the team.
I don’t expect Edmonds to be our big bat, and I think once people get that ridiculous phrase out of their heads, they’ll start to come around. Edmonds should take the OG approach of getting on base and playing solid D, while spanking the ball when possible.
I also agree that our IF and our starting rotation are easily the best in the division, if not the league. Signing Khalil to a 3 year extension is the next top priority at this point, and I;m pretty sure well find something quite effective to plug in at the 5th starter spot.
A shot in the dark here, but our potential line-up?
Iguchi
Giles
Kouz
Adrian
Hairston/Headley/Jenkins
Greene
Edmonds
Bard
While that’s not sexy, it’s pretty balanced with OBP threates early followed by your potential mashers. Edmonds and Bard can clean up whatever’s left.
December 15, 2007 at 11:09 am
Headley/Edmonds/Hairston/Giles/Jenkins would be a pretty solid outfield for one year (even if it isn’t flashy), and the Padres could revisit the situation next year when Giles and Edmonds are off the books, and maybe some better options will be available. Overall, a nice stopgap move.
December 15, 2007 at 11:36 am
My one concern with Edmonds is that he apparently has turned into Milton Bradley lite over the past two seasons. Can we really count on him for 130 games, or are me more likely to only have him available for 100-110? He says he feels better now than he has for many years. Players always say that, but all it takes is one minor nagging injury to derail an entire season, witness his groin, back and hamstring problems last year.
We need a back-up CF that has the defensive ability to patrol the large CFs of Petco and the other NL West ball parks. Surely the Padres aren’t counting on Hairston to be that guy? Who’s gonna be our 5th OF? Could it be Drew Macias (now possibly without a position in Portland if Antonelli is moved)? He’ll never hit, but he can patrol the OF as a late inning replacement and has some speed.
December 15, 2007 at 12:02 pm
Can Myrow play CF? I still think the Padres are looking at options. It’s not even the end of the year yet. I’d be surprised if there isn’t another deal or two by ST.
Overall this is a good move as a start. I hope Freese gets to play in St. Louis.
December 15, 2007 at 12:08 pm
The deal may be better than described here - I suspect that MORE than one million $ will change hands. That number was reported by Corey Brock on mlb.com, but not other sources which simply say that the deal must be reviewed by mlb because 1 million or more is involved. I suspect sloppy reporting - what are your sources Corey?
December 15, 2007 at 12:17 pm
an outfield of fukudome edmonds giles would probably give us a great shot at winning the west. even an outfield of bradley edmonds giles…. Sorry i know i need to get over the past haha. I have a problem with that. Still think about Hoffman in that last game every few days and get pissed
December 15, 2007 at 12:19 pm
Creative. I wish Milton had accepted, but can still hope for Jenkins. Plugging the holes intelligently, but that does not mean we are getting better.
December 15, 2007 at 12:23 pm
6: Myrow might not be able to play CF in a video game.
The most interesting part of any rumored deal with St. Louis was the possibility of Reyes coming back. Edmonds, bleh. It’s a lot of money devoted to not very much upside.
Arizona could have the best pitching in the division now. On a per-game basis their SP are as good as ours and they’re more durable. They may get Johnson back this year, too.
December 15, 2007 at 12:56 pm
Comparing Edmonds to Piazza is quite a stretch. I don’t think “everyone” thought Piazza was done - they thought he was done catching. Edmonds, IMO, is toast.
Closer to Steve Finley than Milton Bradley.
Disclosure: I’ve never liked the guy.
December 15, 2007 at 1:29 pm
#11 Wrong. It is not a stretch at all comparing the two. Many were saying that Piazza was completely done, especially when he got off to a slow start in 2006. I remember very clearly hearing the baseball experts early in 2006 saying how sad it was to watch Piazza play when he has nothing left…..
December 15, 2007 at 1:40 pm
I don’t understand why people are so high on Fukudome. If he was in San Diego his stats would probably look like Brian Giles’. Add in the fact that he would most likely be below average in CF so I don’t see how or why that would be a good signing. Andruw Jones, on the other hand, but I’m sure most of you have read my thoughts on that particular non-move.
What I’m concerned about it the fact that the Padres seem to prefer low potential players. A lot of times it seems like their outlook on players is negative — meaning they expect the guy to be a bust so they’d rather not spend the money (although Fukudome was an exception to this although we don’t really know if the Padres were serious about signing him). This philosophy is especially apparent in their amateur drafting — they take low ceiling pitchers (no such thing as a low risk young pitcher) like they expect them to fail. They did it last year with Nick Schmidt and in 2004 with Matt Bush (I’m not sure about Stauffer in 2003, was he considered a top 4 talent or was that also a signability pick?)
December 15, 2007 at 1:43 pm
11, 12: There is a difference. Piazza was such a superior hitter compared to the average catcher that even at 60% of peak he was still better than most. Edmonds wasn’t nearly as good relative to his peers, and we’re paying a lot more for him than we gave Piazza.
December 15, 2007 at 1:43 pm
Take low ceiling players, not just pitchers, the above should read.
December 15, 2007 at 1:50 pm
13: You’re right, they have the same basic philosophy towards free agents as they do draft picks. Spread the money around to many different players with warts or limited upside, because those are the players who will take what we want to pay.
It’s a lot better idea for free agents than for draft picks. At some point you have to get more good players, though. If you’re only going to shop in the free agent clearance aisle, and you’re not going to draft many kids with star potential, you better win darn near every trade. I love almost everything about Chase Headley, but let’s be realistic, he’s been comped to Bill Mueller since he was in college. A 15-20 HR bat with a 370 OBP is nice in LF, but it’s not a separator.
Stauffer was a legitimate Top 10 pick. Schmidt wasn’t a bad pick on his numbers or his physical profile, but our scouts seem to have missed what other scouts picked up on, his injury potential.
December 15, 2007 at 2:11 pm
It’s odd because most front offices seem to think that every free agent they sign is going to do well — which could explain some of the Padres success although this team was built through trades, not free agents I don’t think. I thought this was the perfect time to gamble on Andruw Jones, a potential all-star bat and an excellent fielder which the Padres have said is essential for the Padres to compete. Plus a two year contract means that Jones needs to keep himself in shape otherwise he wouldn’t get squat when he becomes a free agent after 2009. But management wouldn’t gamble on $18m a year even the potential payoff in the playoffs is way more then that. I think everyone would agree that Edmonds is a step down from Jones, a couple of wins a season worse. But I guess the extra $12m or so isn’t worth the potential payoff to Moores.
I wonder if trading for Edmonds means they won’t pursue Jenkins now. An outfield of Jenkins, Edmonds and Giles would have massive platoon splits against left-handed pitching plus is somewhat injury prone (although Jenkins has generally been healthy, missed 30 games last season but just 15 in 2005 and 2006). I foresee a lot of at-bats for Hairston next season which I think is good — but I think there is a good chance he starts the season as the everyday left fielder.
December 15, 2007 at 3:42 pm
Re: some general comments on how Cameron is in decline.
Cameron’s decline is basically one season. Two years ago he had a career year for us, then last year he fell back down to his normal level of play. He’s had OPS+ of 105, 107, 108, 109, and 104, so his 103 last year isn’t that far out of line. That strikeouts didn’t really dramatically increase over previous years, either; he didn’t even set his career high, which is 176.
Edmonds has really bad platoon splits and probably needs a platoon partner. If Hairston can actually play center, he would work, but that probably rules out signing Jenkins. Maybe Headley will get some playing time in left. Heck, OG could use a platoon partner as well. Maybe we should go ahead and sign Jenkins and use Headley, Antonelli, and Hairston as the platoon partners in left, center, and right, respectively.
December 15, 2007 at 4:11 pm
It’s close, but I think Cameron’s career year was 2001.
December 15, 2007 at 4:16 pm
Keith Law on the Edmonds signing:
http://insider.espn.go.com/esp.....=law_keith
December 15, 2007 at 4:26 pm
20: Reading what Law wrote in the body of the piece, as opposed to the headline and opening paragraph, makes me wonder how tiny the tiny upside is. So we’re spending 7M on a part-time player who isn’t really good at anything.
It’s not the worst move in the world, but so far this team is better at one position: 2b. Not hugely better, either. I have faith that other moves are in the works, but the division has gotten tougher. We need to do more than tread water.
December 15, 2007 at 4:29 pm
21: 6M for Edmonds. Cards picking up 2M.
December 15, 2007 at 5:27 pm
No more Cameron strike outs!!!! Yippeeeeeeeeeeeee!
No more meth in the club house - hopefully!!!!
All in all Cammy was cool, but 2 bad drug tests and 25 game suspensions is not cool.
December 15, 2007 at 5:43 pm
PECOTA projection for Fukudome is good:
http://www.baseballprospectus......red/?p=699
December 15, 2007 at 5:45 pm
Cammy can be only Caminiti.
December 15, 2007 at 6:02 pm
Cameron, according to a baseball source, wanted a two-year deal for about $22 million. But the Padres deemed that too much for a player who was going to miss the first 25 games of the year — he was suspended for a positive test for banned substances — and would be 35 next month. So both sides agreed to move on.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
I’m glad the Padres didn’t sign Cameron.
December 15, 2007 at 6:05 pm
yeah $11M per is to much for Cameron, that being said I dont think that Edmonds is the answer…
December 15, 2007 at 6:09 pm
I think that Giles still plays well against lefties; or at least he can get on base. But its true that the OF of Jenkins, Edmonds, and Giles would only work with at least two decent right-handed hitters as a 4th and 5th OF. Not just because of the platooning, but also because I don’t think any of those guys can be counted on to start more than 120 games in 2008. Hairston is a good start, but I don’t think its the best idea to bring up Headley just to sit on the bench and get the occasional start against lefties. That would be a good way to screw up the developmental trajectory of the Pad’s no. 1 prospect. Who else could cover for Edmonds against lefties? Crabbe? How about trade options? Looking at his (albeit very limited) splits from last year, it looks like Willits hits lefties alright. Thoughts?
December 15, 2007 at 6:10 pm
From Law’s article:
“and perhaps replacing him late in games for defensive reasons”
isn’t that why the Pads got Edmonds? As I see it there is no one else on the roster that can play CF in the NL west.
December 15, 2007 at 6:18 pm
Towers may respectfully disagree with Law on that.
December 15, 2007 at 6:30 pm
I actualy hope the Pads don’t sign Jenkins I would rather see Hairston and Headley play there.
Jenkins Career line is .277/.347/.496, put the Petco filters on it and I think Headley/Hairston can do just as well.
December 15, 2007 at 6:38 pm
21: Not “hugely” better? Maybe it’s semantics, but I think we’re probably much much much better at second base. I mean, you do remember what was getting trotted out to second base last year, right? I don’t know that it would be tough to even get a “little” better than Marcus and Blummer.
I’m sorry… I probably sound like a dick. It’s putting up with all of the Gaslamp Ballers who are absolutely convinced that somehow losing Milton Bradley and Mike Cameron means that we’re the worst team in baseball. We literally have Cardinals fans, Dodgers fans, Giants fans and Cubs fans telling people that the Padres are going to be fine and it’s making my head spin.
December 15, 2007 at 8:33 pm
32: Sound like a dick? Not at all. Besides, I’ve made a career of abrading folks. I’d have no room to talk if you did.
In WARP, last year’s Padre 2b combined for a 3.9 mark; Iguchi was 4.2.
19 Win Shares for Padres, Iguchi 15.
The Padre numbers are inflated by playing time, they got 750 at-bats between them compared to 465 for Iguchi. It’s not everything, though. Giles played very good defense and that closes the gap significantly in any measurement that includes D. Plus, a fully healthy Iguchi was only going to get 100-150 more at-bats than he did.
550 ABs of Iguchi in 2007 is almost sure to outproduce last year’s 2b, but he’s just not good enough to make it a big margin.
December 15, 2007 at 9:27 pm
#14 - Tom –if Edmonds had a “rebound” year…lets be realistic and say .280 20-25 homers and 80+ rbi’s with maybe 50 walks and played a decent defensive centerfield…would many centerfielders in both the NL and AL offer that much more ?
December 15, 2007 at 9:30 pm
33: upbraiding. I wouldn’t usually correct spelling, but it’s a slightly different pronunciation which is something I’d want to know
December 15, 2007 at 9:51 pm
Re: 34 Edmonds has not hit as high as .263 since 04 and has not hit more than 19 HR’s since 05. Its not just a down year last year, there is a slope that he has fallen down since 04.
December 15, 2007 at 9:58 pm
A couple guys who hit really well against lefties last year and might be nice bench additions:
Jayson Werth (has played CF),
Ryan Spilbroughs, COL (another potential CFer-with a 1.012 OPS against lefties last year)
Matt Diaz
Austin Kearns.
I think Hairston’s a good start, but we do need a reserve CF who can hit lefties.
December 15, 2007 at 10:09 pm
I dont think Werthless is coming to SD after his encounter with some fans sitting in left field.
December 15, 2007 at 10:16 pm
Here is an interesting line on Edmonds:
at Old Busch Stadium (2000-2005): .293/.408/.600
at New Busch Stadium (2006-2007): .259/.349/.437
December 15, 2007 at 11:01 pm
Keith Law on the second baseman:
http://insider.espn.go.com/esp.....=law_keith
December 15, 2007 at 11:05 pm
Padres second basemen last season: .247/.320/.342.
Iguchi last season: .267/.347/.400.
Granted, it’s not park-adjusted, but still …
December 15, 2007 at 11:11 pm
Another guy who mashes lefties is Bobby Kielty. For his career he’s hit .296/.379 /.503 against left handed pitches. He’s also played 49 games in center field. Not sure if it’s worth it to pick up a guy who is so terrible against right-handers, but if we need a platoon split for a left-handed outfielder, he’d be a good, cheap choice.
December 15, 2007 at 11:23 pm
Seems that Law likes every move KT does. Onto the Edmonds deal:
I think we did ok but I wouldn’t mind signing another guy in the free agency..Kenny Lofton. Lofton would provide the so much thing we need: speed. Plus he is another veteran player who just hits and hits, steals bases and gets on base. The perfect antidote for PETCO park. Yes I know he is 40 but the guy is still playing as if he was on his best days (just remember the ALCS he had against Boston this year). I’m pretty confident that Edmonds will have a good eeeoffensive season with us (don’t ask why) but I’m more worried about his defensive skills nowadays.
I liked the Iguchi signing as well, a solid bat and solid defender that has decent speed. Overall, a couple of great low-risk high reward moves by the Pads, and hopefully these aren’t the last moves they make. I say we still need a fifth starter (Colon, Prior or Clement) and a LF (perhaps Jenkins but I would prefer to trade for one).
December 16, 2007 at 4:45 am
I think signing Kenny Lofton right now is the best possible answer. He can play CF when needed, and platoon in LF with Hairston otherwise.
December 16, 2007 at 5:25 am
34: The average NL CF last year hit 273/336/426. A rebound to his 2006 line of 257/350/471, adjusted down for 81 games in SD, looks like it will be in that range. And the question isn’t how much more other CF offer, but how much more Piazza offered vs other catchers. He was an 800+ OPS bat at a 650 OPS position. If Edmonds rebounds all the way, absolutely, he’s a big upgrade.
35: You’re not correcting anything. Abrading as in being abrasive, as in being a jerk.
December 16, 2007 at 7:34 am
“Sound like a dick? Not at all. Besides, I’ve made a career of abrading folks. I’d have no room to talk if you did.”
Upbraid - reprimand somebody: to criticize or scold somebody in a harsh manner
Abrade - wear away: to wear something away or be worn away by friction
December 16, 2007 at 8:21 am
46: Abrade, to be abrasive. As in, I have an abrasive manner of writing. You might prefer to use upbraid. Good for you. I knew what word I was writing.
December 16, 2007 at 11:47 am
I like the signings of Edmunds and Iguchi. I couldn’t stand Cameron’s strikeouts and at times, Greene gets on my nerves for the same reason, but his defense is enough to keep him around. It seems Cameron lost a step in the outfield so I consider Edmunds a definite upgrade if he can stay healthy.
Time to find a left fielder and bench. Maybe a platoon of Hairston, Antonelli, Sledge and a free agent vet.
December 16, 2007 at 11:58 am
48: In a full season Edmunds will strike out between 130 and 150 times. His average for an entire season is 142. Cameron’s averaged 156 Ks for 162 games. That’s about one extra strikeout per 2 weeks for Cameron.
For as much as Cameron supposedly slipped last year at the plate, he still had an OPS+ of 103. Edmunds was 88. Edmunds was better as recently as 2006 and his career production is much better, but for just 2008 we can’t really say he’s an upgrade. His range is from “platoon outfielder with injury problems who will retire after the season due to ineffectiveness” to “all-star caliber.” I’d say the most probable outcome is “about average for a CF.”
Time to find a 4th starter.
December 16, 2007 at 12:20 pm
49 I agree with you but actually mean a 5th starter (we got Wolf already). As I said on the past post, Clement or Colon might be good options.
This Edmonds signing will be either a win or a bust for us. Like they said, at ‘08 acquiring Edmonds is no upgrade as he is way past his prime and it will be either a setback or a good acquisition. Remember we have gotten guys like Roberts, Loretta and Piazza and they have all served us well posting good numbers with us. Lets hope its the same case with Edmonds.
December 16, 2007 at 1:19 pm
50: I wouldn’t count on postoperative Wolf as a full-time starter. Most of the SP candidates being discussed are also coming off injuries, which worries me no end. I’d rather trade for somebody durable who is at least average, hopefully with some upside.
December 16, 2007 at 1:52 pm
33: The combined measurement makes it look closer than I think it really was/will be. Obviously, we’d rather have one starting second baseman. Since Giles’ defense could never truly be combined with Blum’s offense, acquiring a proper second baseman really is kinda huge for us since it opens up some options for Antonelli.
The true measurement will obviously be at the end of the season. Are the PECOTA numbers out yet?
December 16, 2007 at 2:15 pm
Even if Edmonds is a bust, it’s one year and only 6 million. Even if he gets injured in the first game and never plays again, it would be less of a bust than the Dodgers’ Jason Schmidt contract, or the Giants’ Barry Zito contract, or Colorado’s Neagle/Hampton contracts, or etc. It’s a little pricey for an older guy, but he fills the biggest hole on the team, and has the potential to be the best hitter in the lineup if he happens to revert to form. That seems like a pretty great gamble to me.
December 16, 2007 at 2:21 pm
52: We have to knock off some of Blum’s production for the time he spent at other spots. But a 280/350/420 hitter, which is about Iguchi’s career mark in much better home parks, just isn’t good enough to be a major improvement. Improvement, sure. It’s the adjective I’m disagreeing with. Not huge or great. Some. Appreciable. Meaningful. Iguchi could always have a career year, of course. That would be awesome. Not too likely at 33, but possible.
I expect their plan with Antonelli, now that they have Iguchi and Edmunds, is to leave him at 2b in AAA. He’s already spent time learning that. Meanwhile they’ll continue to pursue long-term CF in trade and do everything possible to make Venable and Hunter into CF.
December 16, 2007 at 4:29 pm
Re: 54 Hunters atleast 2 years away yeah? or do you think he will split this year between A+ and AA?
December 16, 2007 at 4:42 pm
55: At least 2 years. But if either one looks like they can handle it, or one of the college CF they drafted last year explodes, they can leave Antonelli alone at 2b.
December 16, 2007 at 5:06 pm
If Antonelli can play CF I think they should make the move, he will be much much more valuable to the team there.
December 16, 2007 at 7:16 pm
It’s Edmonds, not Edmunds, to all those who are misspelling it.
December 17, 2007 at 7:39 am
Thanks four the spellling lession Kevin. =)