IGD: Padres @ Rockies (1 Oct 07)

Game #163
time: 4:37 p.m. PT
tv: TBS
sp: Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.36) vs Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.79)
pre: Padres.com, B-R.com

Analyze this one however you’d like; it’s one game, and anything can happen. That is my greatest fear and also my greatest hope. Go Padres!

Tagged as: , , , , , , ,

1,031 Responses »

  1. LM,

    Replay was clear to me…Holliday has not touched the plate yet. Should be tie game, two outs, two runners on. But that, and $4, will get ya’ a mocha frappucino.

  2. 944: Amen. They had three games and blew it. I hold no ill will toward the Rockies.

    We all know (at this moment) that Hoffman will be back closing games next season. We all are bummed and noting his decline, but what about Hoffman himself? I know I’ll be sleeping better tonight.

  3. 938 … he remains a HOF-er to you because he *is* a HOF-er – to ALL of us … *AND* we can/should/will bury him for this … well, not just this … but for Saturday also … when he gets hit, he gets hit *HARD* … that’s not good for a closer … c’mon … don’t you think think this was a pretty predictable finish? I didn’t think it would be as ugly as it was … but I was also pretty sure that a 1-run lead wouldn’t hold up …

  4. 949: Now I don’t have to find a babysitter for 3 kids! Hmm, what to blow that $100 on?

  5. 951: 2 out 1 on. helton would be the only guy on base.

  6. Oh, and I’ll bet ya even money that Rivera gets a blown-save this post-season …

  7. 953: You mean 2 run lead right?

  8. 955: That’s right. For some reason, I had it in my head that the bases were loaded.

  9. What does Holliday say about if he was out at the plate?

    “I don’t know.” … well, that’s says enough for me …

  10. For everybody still thinking and digesting, as I am, that call…

    Please let me repeat myself. The non-signal is equivalent to saying that he did not touch the base. Any umpire will tell you that one of the hardest things in the game is not to influence the outcome in that situation. They are supposed to NOT show any sign of what they saw until the tag is made.

    McClellan’s inaction at the beginning is damning. He KNEW. He knew that he never touched the plate and he still knows it. He made a deliberate decision to end that game. Even Holliday knows it. In interview, he says “The ump says I did…”

    HE NEVER TOUCHED THE PLATE. The only thing debate-able is whether McClellan was more influenced by the fear of being wrong, the noise from the crowd or the peer pressure to punish the Padres.

  11. Now that the elephant has removed himself from my chest….I’m not going to reference post numbers, this is mind vomit…..

    Holliday was clearly out. No umpire delays that particular call that long. Blue was tired and wanted a nap. It does matter, because it’s a DP, and we’re one rocket shot snagged by Khalil from getting out of it.

    I said “F.U. Trevor” throughout the inning, quietly so as not to wake the family, but that’s an emotional response. If I try to be cold and rational about it, he either needs to retire before the season or be ready to go all year. You can’t plan with a key member of the team teetering on the edge. One idea would be to give him another season of closing at home and on the road (but only against bad hitting teams in big parks). You get the marketing benefits of one more season of the Hell’s Bells farewell tour and a reasonably effective pitcher who cannot be treated with kid gloves anymore. He looked so damn good Friday night, tonight he was throwing balls anybody could lay into.

    There’s no need to sign Hairston. He’s under control for years.

    Jake’s going to get himself that unfair Clemens reputation of not pitching well in huge games. Took Clemens almost 15 years to shed it.

    One more win, any time in the season, and this never happens. One less Sunday lineup, maybe.

    If either Cassel or Estes is in the rotation next year, the Padres can count me out.

    Wow, I’m sure glad we had 31 year old journeyman Myrow on the squad. No disrespect to him personally, but exactly how was he worthy of a spot and PMac wasn’t?

  12. 950: it’s probably a hopeless cause, but it’s right…it should have been one of the most clutch double plays ever, continuing one of the greatest games ever.

  13. Trevor’s opponent OPS allowed was .595, 26th best in baseball among relievers with 40+ IP. The 25 guys ahead of him are a who’s who of the best relievers in baseball (including Heath Bell at #8). Some of the pitchers who performed worse include Francisco Rodriguez, Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Brett Myers, Jose Valverde, and Joe Borowski. The only team who is still alive who has a closer with a better opponent OPS is the Red Sox, who have three of the top 16 relief pitchers in baseball in Papelbon, Okajima and Delcarmen.

    That means that Hoffman arguably had a better season than any closer of the remaining playoff teams, or at least was as good as any of those guys. Sometimes your great pitcher doesn’t have a good day or a good weekend and you lose. End of story. It probably didn’t help that he had to warm up like four times.

  14. Here’s some ominous words from an mlb.com story from earlier today …

    Five days ago, Peavy picked up his 19th victory in the Padres’ 11-3 victory over the Giants at AT&T Park. Peavy limited the Giants to two runs on five hits over seven innings with one strikeout — a number that might be cause for concern for a pitcher who led the National League in strikeouts this season.

    Peavy even said after the game that he didn’t always have a great feel for his pitches, and his command wasn’t as sharp as it’s been during a season where he’s built the credentials of a Cy Young favorite.

  15. Why did Barrett still have the f-ing catcher’s mask on his face? And did the ump really signal safe just because Holiday got hurt? And would we be able to take it to the 14th with 2 outs and someone on 2nd?

    This sucks.

  16. 964: Yet another reason we should have been pulling him early in September when we had big leads against bad hitting teams. We could have saved nearly a full game’s worth of pitches in that arm by pulling him early against LA and SF.

  17. I’m not goin’ to say good night until we get to 1000 posts… just sayin’.

  18. why didn’t any padres protest the call?

  19. 965: Don’t some catchers keep the mask on when there’s danger of a collision? It happened fast, he didn’t have that much time to dump it. And if you can catch a Peavy or Bell slider with the mask on, it seems like your vision is good enough to handle a throw from the outfield.

    No one but the ump knows why he signaled safe five seconds after he should have, if Holliday really touched the plate.

  20. 968: Without replay, some other umpires would have to have conflicting views. Nobody was close enough.

  21. 970: Cheater.

  22. The ball was hit hard to Giles. It happened pretty quickly. And Barrett did what he needed to.

  23. ..a cheater! (Works for Barry.)

  24. 966: We really dont know that. Its the amount of starts you make that wears on you. Peavy made more starts this year than any other. Pulling him an inning here or there really would not have mattered.

    After Trevor warmed up the 4th time you know he had already used all his good stuff in the ‘pen. Sad…

  25. Lost in this mess, OG deserves some applause for his effort on those last two plays. Man.

  26. 975: Also works for Rafael Betancourt. Damn those Indians, riding a known steroids user to a division title.


  28. 963 … and others … the “warm up 4 times” note sounds like it has some merit … in which case BB needs to be taking some of this “bury”ing …

    961 … I like the concept of “marketing benefits” … it’s very practical … and it transitions Bell into the closer role …

    961 … “One less Sunday lineup” … ouch, that hits home to me … I like the guy that called them “BB’s split squad lineup” … whassup with *that*???

    961 … re: Cassel … do be so extreme with that … how would he be a worse #5 than Germano was this year? I’d not be “happy-happy” with it … but it sure seems like you’re settin’ yourself up to be an Angels fan next year otherwise … I’m just asking you to reconsider that stance … I want you back here next year :-)

    961 … re: Myrow vs McAnulty … there’s *no one* on this blog that’s a bigger fan of McAnulty than me … but Myrow did earn his spot this September with a fantastic year at AAA … and McAnulty was a disappointment. Is the Padres current roster at 40? If not, then I’d agree that McAnulty should also have been up and available for a game like this … perhaps to have the ABs that Robles got down the stretch, for example … but Myrow earned his ABs … he just didn’t deliver on those chances … we’ll cut him and he’ll get a chance at DH somewhere in the AL … and if he starts off hot, he might be next year’s Cust …

  29. 963. I’d be interested to learn where other closers rank in terms of Innings Pitched. That’s my other problem with Hoffman, other teams can use their closers more often. Because of his age, how many innings can he really throw.

    When you have a closer who you have to treat with kid-gloves, you have to feed more innings to the other bullpen guys.

    Trevor appologists out in force tonight!

  30. 679: That’s completely counter-factual. A guy who starts 30 games and throws 5 innings, 75 pitches in each is a lot less stressed than a pitcher who starts 28 and throws 8 innings, 100 pitches per. It’s fairly simple math. Who can come back faster, a man who throws 1 inning (reliever) or a man who throws 6 (starter). The principles are the same. Every bit of effort not expended in one start reduces the recuperation time for the next bout of activity.

    And it’s not just a few innings, it was saving him nearly 8 innings in the last month of a long season.

  31. Bud Black thought Holliday was safe:

    ‘Said Padres manager Bud Black: “It looked to me like he did get it.”‘

  32. 967 … I’m with ya, dprat … let’s go get ‘em …

  33. As we near the end of the telethon, we still have a few minutes to thank some folks…

    LM, always enjoy your posts, especially links to good stuff I’d otherwise miss…

    Richard & TW, thanks for your clear-thinking and exceptional analyses…

    And, GY is the cool kid with the bitchin’ pool table at his house who lets us all hangout…

  34. 980: The “Sunday lineup” always pissed me off. We learned this year and last year that EVERY win is important.
    Cassel was ok for a throw in this year, but give me a break. He is not a major league starter.

  35. One more win, any time in the season, and this never happens. One less Sunday lineup, maybe.

    Very true.

    By the way, after taking a bad hop in the eye one day, I don’t blame Barrett for keeping the mask on. And I REALLY don’t blame him when he did everything frickin’ PERFECT!

    The pause is absolutely damning. It’s someone thinking about how to get away with a lie. It’s someone thinking about the peer pressure. It’s someone hearing the yelling fans and enjoying it. It’s someone tired who wants the game over.

    I don’t care which one is true. Mr. McClellan has sacrificed his integrity in favor of whichever explanation is true. He has to live with that for the rest of his life and I hope that it bothers him when he is 95 and wearing extra large Depends.

    Look, McClellan. You do that for a girl, if she’s cute and you’re reasonably sure she’ll stay for breakfast. That’s pardonable. But in a playoff game? You’re going straight to hell.

  36. 983 … pfft … Bud’s just doing what he can to ease the pain / embarrasement … and animosity between Padres and umps … that’s what he has to do … I’ll betcha he sees a replay and thinks differently … but never says so …

  37. 987 … so, uh, Rich … are you pissed off about this?

  38. 980: Cassell is not a major league starting pitcher, any more than Mike Thompson was. You can get lucky with guys like that, but if this team run by analytic intellectuals looks at his performance and gives him a starting job, they’re just dumb. He had a 1.54 WHIP, .24 more than Germano, and Germano should be a long reliever/emergency starter on a competitive team anyway.

    Myrow is a 31 year old enjoying a career year. He’s half a decade older than players who are old for AAA. If they wanted to reward him, fine, but McAnulty was still on the 40 man roster, and while he struggled this year, he’s had a much better minor league career than Myrow.

  39. 987 … OK, that’s it … Rich is “Snap #2″ … somebody call 911 and get ‘em to take that man’s keyboard away … stop, Rich, stop!

  40. Rich should be pissed. We all should be. Go for blood, Rich. I’m wit’ ya’.

  41. 985: Thanks, dprat. And look, we’re gonna get there without cheating, no need to resort to PEDs (Post Enhancing Devices).

  42. 982: Where were you going to get 8 innings from? 2 or 3 from SF where it wouldnt have mattered because he already “lost” his stuff? 8 innings out of 200+ is just a few. Supposed we lose those games when jake pitches 4 or 5 then we arent even playing tonight. A reliever and a starter are extremely exaggerrated examples. I really think Jake just over throws in the “big game” or “big situation” you cant blame him for his competitive spirit

  43. I can tell dprat is lurking … waiting for the right moment to be #1000 … am I right or am I right? BING!

  44. re: 989

    Hey, Lynch…

    Ya think? *wink*

    It kills me that I have to re-live this for an entire off-season. Barrett did everything right and McClellan did everything wrong. I so wish this was a game in July. Yes, of course one more win in July changes everything. But then it wouldn’t be the lasting memory.

  45. Alright, I’m going to bed, guys… thanks for all the commentary.

    It sucks, now I know what Boston Red Sox fans felt like in 1978…

    I wish I started watching fishing at a young age and not baseball, at least the fish never win.

  46. I haven’t read any of the game comments above but I was wondering if anybody else thought about the pitch calls from Barrett for Hoffman. I was watching the sequence and was really surprised that Hoffman only threw fastballs and maybe a couple of change-ups. That was so horrible as all the hits were crushed off his fastballs and nothing was moving at all.

    While that was quite a game, the pitching performances from Peavy and Hoffman were very disappointing. I can’t believe Khalil didn’t go yard at all at his favorite park.

    Drats. I can’t believe the season is over.

  47. The fact that when asked whether or not he touched the plate Matt Holiday responded, “the ump said I did” is enough evidence for me that he did not.

  48. Just read a note that said Cla had pitched previous 4 games … so he was pretty much unavailable tonight … just sayin’ …