Wed, Aug 20, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres @ Diamondbacks
6:40 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD, DIRECTV 740
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 188
MLB, B-R
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
Filed under In-Game Discussion.
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August 20, 2008 at 6:42 pm
Gerut’s gapper to begin the game begs the question: Would you rather have Gerut or Fukudome? Regardless of price, I think I’d take Gerut. Considering their contracts, it isn’t even close.
August 20, 2008 at 6:48 pm
DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!DONG!!!
August 20, 2008 at 6:49 pm
Fukudome’s play was the big story in Chicago. He hasn’t hit in 2 months and his defense has been suspect. Pinella has voiced his displeasure about Fukudome, saying that he might sit if he doesn’t pick it up.
August 20, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Gerut’s price tag continues to rise. He’s now officially a .300 hitter and will no longer be a bargain this offseason.
Kouz’ value is also rising, which is good if they do plan on trading him this offseason. But if they don’t, we know we have a 3B who is good for at least a .285 BA and 25 HR. Still, I think they’ll probably need to trade him for some pitching if they want to right the ship.
August 20, 2008 at 7:17 pm
#4@JMAR:
“3B” should be in parentheses. Kouzmanoff should be at first or DH, and since one of those positions doesn’t exist in San Diego, and the other one is manned by a much better player, he should be trade bait this offseason.
Also, Peavy, looking absolutely awful tonight. Not that wins and losses matter anymore, but I at least wanted to enjoy this game…
August 20, 2008 at 7:19 pm
#5@David Coonce: What evidence do you have that Kouz should be a first baseman or a DH? Every defensive metric I’ve seen has him ranked as a slightly below average third baseman, around -5 runs per season.
August 20, 2008 at 7:21 pm
Josh Geer is starting tonight for Portland, which I assume rules him out for the start on Saturday.
August 20, 2008 at 7:23 pm
Peavy is (or was) the ERA leader but he hasn’t seemed to be nearly as dominant as he was last season. I’ve been looking for a stat to back it up and this one tells a big part of the story. In ‘07, he gave up 13 HR in 2231. IP (1 every 17.2 IP). This season, he’s given up 15 HR in 136 IP (1 every 9.1). Nearly twice as often. Still one of the top pitchers in the game, though. Hopefully his ‘09 will be more like ‘07.
August 20, 2008 at 7:24 pm
#6@Ben B.:
Well, I guess because I’ve watched him play third for two seasons now and he is absolutely atrocious out there. His numbers are a little bit better this season than last, I’ll grant you that, but he’s blocking Headley (who can’t play left field at all), and is probably the Padres only tradeable asset. he doesn’t hit enough to play anywhere but third, so it’s time to move him before he has a Greene-type season.
August 20, 2008 at 7:24 pm
If Jake ever brings up run support again, they need to show him this game in a loop, Clockwork Orange style.
August 20, 2008 at 7:33 pm
#9@David Coonce:
KK is all but guaranteed to be an ex-Padre in the offseason.
August 20, 2008 at 7:35 pm
#9@David Coonce: I don’t think Kouz has been that bad at third. He’s been average. Headley might be a little better defensively but I haven’t seen him enough there to know for sure. No question their team defense would be better if Kouz were traded but that’s mostly because the improvement would come from having a better defender in left field, not so much at 3B.
August 20, 2008 at 7:37 pm
#9@David Coonce: He doesnt hit enough to play anywhere but 3B? Arent 3B normally good hitters? Also, Kouz hasnt been nearly as bad as you make him out to be and while Chase may be better defensively at 3B, we have no idea if he will be a better player than Kouz.
Now if they can trade Kouz for some pitching, then yes the team will most likely overall improve (moving Headley to 3B and Hairtson? to left).
August 20, 2008 at 7:39 pm
#9.
All the metrics I’ve seen as well as my own eyes say that Kouz has improved greatly at third from last season.
He’ll never have great range, but he’s really cut down on throwing errors to the point where when he gets to the ball, he’s very consistent. No longer a huge issue.
That said, I think #11 is right — putting a 3B in LF is a misallocation of resources and I think it is clear Headley is considered a better player by the Pads.
August 20, 2008 at 7:43 pm
#13@SDSUBaseball:
Third Basemen are normally “tweeners” - not enough offense to play the outfield or first, more offense than the average 2B or SS. Kouz fits this to a tee - his on-base skills are dreadful (he’s drawn 14 walks this season), he strikes out a ton, but can probably hit 270 with 25 homers for a few years, and that’s a tradeable asset, especially since kouzmanoff can’t really field his position. The Padres can easily shift Headley to third and get similar production, while sorting through various players in left.
August 20, 2008 at 7:46 pm
Nice at bat there by Gerut.
August 20, 2008 at 7:59 pm
#15@David Coonce: Not sure if I agree with you there. 3B often supply more offense than OFs.
August 20, 2008 at 8:12 pm
You only have to look at two stats to know that Kouz is going to be shopped in the offseason: 16 BB’s and 99 K’s. Not even Josh Barfield’s BB-K ratio was that bad his rookie season (30 BB’s, 81 K’s) or his first season in Cleveland (14 BB’s, 90 K’s).
It’s interesting that Kouz was not this much of a hacker in the minors. His BB-K ratio was actually quite good. He had 33 BB’s and 46 K’s in 346 AB’s in his last minor league season in ‘06. I think the Padres thought they were trading away a hacker in Barfield for a guy who could control the strike zone in Kouz. But it turned out to be one hacker for another hacker. Fortunately, we’ve got the more productive hacker.
August 20, 2008 at 8:13 pm
#17@SDSUBaseball:
Historically, you’re wrong. There are only 8 HOF 3B for a reason. Even looking at current third basemen, only a few “supply more offense” than OF - ARod, Wright, Lowell, Longoria, Chipper Jones, and maybe Troy Glaus. Every other 3B is a worse offensive producer than the average outfielder.
August 20, 2008 at 8:13 pm
#9@David Coonce:I watch him practically everyday as well. He looks awkward out there sometimes and is hardly fluid, but I think it is a far stretch to say he is atrocious at third. I would say that slightly below average is the better summation.
August 20, 2008 at 8:17 pm
#18@JMAR: Totally agree, because Kouz is so unselective it portends danger/ lack of upside to potential bidders.
August 20, 2008 at 8:18 pm
#19@David Coonce:
Sorry, there are 10 HOF 3B - I wasn’t counting the two Negro leaguers but I should have.
August 20, 2008 at 8:27 pm
#19@David Coonce: They are under-represented. Ron Santo should be in.
August 20, 2008 at 8:32 pm
#23@Kevin:
I agree. There should be 11 3B in the HOF. But that doesn’t deny that the position has always been a “tweener” position; that is, not all offense, not all defense. Kouzmanoff is neither.
August 20, 2008 at 8:34 pm
#21@JP: Fortunately, I think there are some teams out there that pay less attention to OBP. They’ll see the 20+ HR’s and .285 BA and offer something of value in return. At least that’s what I’m hoping and that’s why I’m cheering for him to get to at least .290-25-85 by season’s end.
August 20, 2008 at 8:35 pm
#24@David Coonce: There might should be more. People don’t know how to judge because of what you just said — it’s a “tweener.”
August 20, 2008 at 8:42 pm
STOP WALKING PEOPLE, PADRES PITCHERS!!!!
That is all.
August 20, 2008 at 8:44 pm
#26@Kevin:
agreed - 3B is the most underrepersented position in baseball. But there are two - Lindstrom and Kell, who shouldn’t be in there, which brings us back to 8, minus Santo, who should be in.
August 20, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Yeah, and, by the way, as a Padres fan, this game is sucking my soul from me.
August 20, 2008 at 8:46 pm
KYLE BLANKS TRACKER: .315 BA, 16 HR, 89 RBI … after going 4-5, HR, 4 RBI’s in tonight’s game. It’s 10-10 in the 9th so maybe he’ll bat again. The guy is having one heck of a season in AA at age 21.
August 20, 2008 at 8:48 pm
#28@David Coonce: Darrell Evans makes a strong case. Graig Nettles maybe. Ken Boyer.
August 20, 2008 at 8:49 pm
There may be no Padres pitcher who I dislike more than Wilfredo Ledezma.
Thanks for the Blanks update JMAR ! I really think he is the real deal. He carries himself like a major leaguer when you see him play –it’s hard to believe that he is 21.
August 20, 2008 at 8:50 pm
#27@Ben B.: Just when I start thinking Hensley and Ledezma are starting to turn the corner, they lose the strike zone again. It is encouraging that before tonight, Hensley had tossed a scoreless outing in 7 of his last 8 appearances. Ledezma had gone scoreless in 8 of 9. But this is very discouraging.
August 20, 2008 at 8:52 pm
According to Baseball Prospectus, Kouz is 10 runs above average hitting this year. He’s a good player. He’s an above average third baseman. You don’t have to hit like Chipper Jones or field like Scott Rolen to be an asset at third. And there’s no requirement that a player draw a certain number of walks to have value.
August 20, 2008 at 8:54 pm
#30@JMAR: I would not be suprised, if they trade Kyle in the off season. They may package him with a AA pitcher and try to fill a hole.
August 20, 2008 at 8:58 pm
#34@Ben B.:
This is a great argument:
You don’t have to hit or field to be an asset at your position.
Then what do you have to do? Cartwheels? Make funny faces?
I love Kevin Kouzmanoff; He is a far better player than Josh Barfield. But the Padres need to trade him before he turns into a pumpkin.
August 20, 2008 at 8:58 pm
#35@Field39: I agree, especially now that they’ve signed Dykstra and have another power-hitting 1B in Matt Clark at Eugene. Blanks is probably one of their top trading chips when the offseason gets started.
August 20, 2008 at 9:04 pm
#31@Kevin:
While I agree with you about Nettles and Evans, the HOF will never let a guy in with a below 250 BA. I don’t think that’s right - frankly, Nettles and Evans were very good players who did everything well except hit for average - but average sells, and the HOF ain’t buying the extremely qualified arguments Nettles and Evans have. Boyer is not in the same class as them, though -he’s more (non-steroid) Ken Caminiti than legit Hall-of-Famer.
But this argument is for another time; Kouz isn’t a bad player; he’s just not a sufficiently good player for the Padres to build around. He blocks a better player (Headley) and is unable to play any other position. Therefore, it is in the team’s best interest to find him a new home. And soon, while his value is high.
August 20, 2008 at 9:06 pm
#36@David Coonce: No, I’m saying you don’t have to be an MVP level hitter like Jones or a Gold Glover like Rolen to be an asset. Slightly above average and under team control for cheap is a great combination. The Padres very well could trade Kouz if they think the return plus his replacement make the team better, but there is no replacement currently on the team or in the farm system that would improve the team over Kouz.
What evidence do you have that Kouz is going to suddenly collapse? I can see an argument that players with poor strikeout to walk ratios are more susceptible to sudden collapse, but there needs to be evidence to back that up before asserting he’s going to randomly collapse.
August 20, 2008 at 9:07 pm
Wow, nice of Mike Adams to step in and restore a little order.
August 20, 2008 at 9:14 pm
#38@David Coonce: That’s a good argument. I think because Kouz is so cheap, he’s a good building block. However, if the organization thinks someone else like Venable could step in and be a little below average offensively, it probably improves the team to trade Kouz.
August 20, 2008 at 9:16 pm
Though he flied out, I thought that Egon had a very good at bat against Rauch. Egon has been a decent find this year as well. Nice bat off the bench and he of course can play several positions.
August 20, 2008 at 9:17 pm
Are we sure that this is the same Jody Gerut ?
August 20, 2008 at 9:19 pm
#43@JP: Look at his rookie year. He is healthy, why wouldnt it be the same one haha.
August 20, 2008 at 9:20 pm
Jody Gerut is out of his mind.
August 20, 2008 at 9:22 pm
#19@David Coonce: Worse than the average outfielder? That is wrong. Kouz probably out performs the “average” OF.
August 20, 2008 at 9:27 pm
#44@SDSUBaseball : How long ago was that good rookie year for Gerut : 6 years ago ? Would you have told me in March of 2008 that a healthy Jody Gerut would be of near equal value to Shane Victorino ?
August 20, 2008 at 9:27 pm
#38@David Coonce: A pumpkin? He has put together two good seasons, one being his rookie season. How can you assume he turn into a pumpkin. You are also assuming Chases is a better player than him, which is possible, but at this point not at all true.
August 20, 2008 at 9:30 pm
#47@JP: A healthy one? Yes, I saw it as a possibility. I have been excited about him since ST. Did I think he was a sure thing? No. I did think he had the chance of playing at the level he is though. He started a little slow, then found his eye and started hitting and now he is finding his power stroke again. I think it would be in the Pad’s best interest to sign him up for 3 years ASAP.
August 20, 2008 at 9:40 pm
#48@SDSUBaseball:I do not see Kouz turning into a pumpkin, but this is a 100 loss team. If someone comes a calling KT will be listening.
August 20, 2008 at 9:50 pm
#38@David Coonce: Are we counting Molitor as a third baseman or just a “utility” guy.
August 20, 2008 at 9:52 pm
#47@JP: Or how about on May 25 when he was at .216,ops .625. Youre not the only one surprised, otherwise he’d be signed for another year and we wouldnt have seen Edmoouunds
August 20, 2008 at 10:03 pm
Blanks homered again to end the game in the 12th. His final line was 5-7 with 2 HR and a double.
August 20, 2008 at 10:29 pm
This season sucks…
- walking the opposing pitcher
- blowing a four-run lead with your ace on the mound
- losing for the second time in a row, despite the other team having more runs than hits and having four or more hits then the opposition?
- walking eight or more batters for the second night in a row
Despite the four runs in the fourth, Haren has amazing control. After facing the first 11 batters, he’d thrown 28 strikes and 2 balls. If only the “pitchability” Padres could find the plate.
Haren was going to third the entire time on Drew’s hit in the second - Giles’ arm has nothing in it.
August 20, 2008 at 10:33 pm
#53@Ben B.: Here’s the box score …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....p;did=milb
… it’s fun/pretty to look at
August 20, 2008 at 10:36 pm
I just clicked on the internet radio for the Portland Beaver game … and Jack-Anulty hits a 3-run, opposite field HR in the bottom of the 11th … Beavers win 8-5 …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_poraaa_1
… yes, the Jack-Anulty strikes again!!!
August 20, 2008 at 10:39 pm
#19@David Coonce: Re HOF?:BR stats show offensive production by position. 3B is about even with RF as the 3rd most productive position in the NL this year by OPS, SLG. Last year it was clearly the 3rd most productive. KK is about average for 3B this year.,batting .333 with power when putting the ball in play on pitch one or two. Unfortunately that’s less than 30% whereas he works his way to 2 strikes 50% of the time at which point he hits .203.
August 20, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Gerut sure does lead the team in wOBA after tonight.
August 20, 2008 at 10:59 pm
Gerut: .303/.361/.498
August 20, 2008 at 11:00 pm
LM: I’m watching daily too. Puzzeling that we hear so much here about M.Ven when he’s hitting 80 pts BA lower and has a ops of .839 with 14 hr in 408ab when PMAC’s ops is 1.213(before tonight) and 11 hr in 130ab. Oh,’s its that dating syndrome.
August 20, 2008 at 11:03 pm
#47@JP: He has been much better than Victorino this year. By park-adjusted wOBA it’s like .390 to .350.
August 20, 2008 at 11:06 pm
Kouzmanoff: .280/.317/.459
August 20, 2008 at 11:07 pm
Adams: 2.03 ERA, 52Ks and 14 walks in 44.1 innings
August 21, 2008 at 7:03 am
On the question of third base as “always” this or that, let me quote from Bill James’ Historical Baseball abstract:
“Until the early part of the thirties, third base was not considered the domain of sluggers and high-average men. Defense was the only quality requested of a third baseman. This is reflected in the presence of so few third basemen in the Hall of Fame; the old joke was that third basemen should pay their way into the park because nobody knew who they were. [Harlond] Clift was one of the men who helped change that image.”
Even as late as the 1960s there were third basemen like Clete Boyer or Aurelio Rodriguez (and in the ’70s the Padres tried to turn Billy Almon into a third baseman!), but I don’t think that a player like that would get anywhere these days. (I could be wrong, of course; I’m not as up on the current situation as I once was.)
August 21, 2008 at 7:53 am
Yep — in the early thirties, 2B and 3B basically changed positions on the defensive spectrum.
August 21, 2008 at 9:47 am
#65@Alan: I wonder if defense was more demanding during the deadball era for 3B due to more bunting. There may have been fewer DP opportunities as well, I suppose, if runners were constantly trying to advnace themselves with the steal or via hit & run due to the low offense. Could be a good SABR study if no one has looked at it before.
August 21, 2008 at 9:48 am
#57@malcolm: “Unfortunately that’s less than 30% whereas he works his way to 2 strikes 50% of the time at which point he hits .203.”
I think this is true of basically everyone though. The further behind in the count you are, generally speaking, the worse you hit.
August 21, 2008 at 12:03 pm
#61@Richard Wade: True, Victorino’s OPS + is only 103 while Gerut’s is a whopping 133. However, according to BP’s VORP rating they are basically equal, with Victorino at 24.8 compared to Gerut’s 23.7.
It would be somewhat surprising, considering his past history of knee problems and his age/lack of consistent performance track record, to see a club offer big bucks and a 3 year guarantee to Gerut ~ I am still fairly sure that the Padres can sign him to a 2 year deal at a decent price.
August 21, 2008 at 1:27 pm
#36@David Coonce:
You should probably leave the insults and derision to someone better at it, like me. Quoting Ben completely out of context just makes you appear to be a fool.
August 21, 2008 at 3:36 pm
#68@JP: VORP is sort of a hybrid counting stat / rate stat, similar to Win Shares in that regard. A mediocre player can pile up VORP by playing 162 games, while a great player could hit the same mark in 60% fewer games.
August 21, 2008 at 4:48 pm
#70@Tom Waits: Appreciate your take on VORP. In your judgement, what is the best measurement regarding player performance ? What are your preference(s) as far as measurement ? Can we consider Gerut’s performance as being much better than Victorino’s simply based on OPS+ or do we look at OPS+ & VORP, giving equal weight to both ? Are there any others ?