IGD: Padres vs Diamondbacks (31 Jul 07)

Game #105
time: 7:05 p.m. PT
tv: 4SD
sp: Justin Germano (6-5, 4.20) vs Brandon Webb (9-8, 3.23)
pre: Padres.com

Remember when Justin Germano was pitching well? Yeah, that was great. Go Padres!

Tagged as: , , , , , , ,

98 Responses »

  1. I left San Diego to head to Newark, NJ for business tomorrow. I land and start checking DS to see what I missed. That was a full day.

    Re:4. If you’ve got a friend who will let you hook up a slingbox to his spare tv, you can pick up San Diego television wherever you have an internet connection. I’m here in Jersey watching Matt and Mudd. Once you pay for the box, there’s no expense after that. I can also pick it up on my cell phone.

  2. 47: Lets just all agree that Branyan has been replaced with a better bench at the deadline.
    As far as Blum, I guess we see his usefulness differently, but with no other option at SS if KG gets hurt (which hopefully doesnt happen but is likely) he has gotta stick around for his versatility and he has been playing well recently.

  3. 49: BABIP is lower by .018. K Rate is .013 lower.

  4. 51: The only people I am close enough with to put that in their house just moved out of SD as well. Anyone have Extra Innings?

  5. Hey, does everyone remember that time the Dodgers traded their best chip for a reliever that has problems with the long ball and walks, neither of which will be rectified in Chavez Ravine? What a good day.

    Oh, back on topic in re: to #49:

    His BABIP is .254 after .277 last year, and he’s striking out 20% of the time instead of 21.1%. He has 362 balls in play this year against 327 last year (375 AB in 2007, 412 in 2006)

  6. Petco isn’t doing a very good job of helping Germano with his homer problem.

  7. 52: Clearly we see his value differently. What are you basing your opinion on? The numbers don’t support your view, so what is it?

  8. 56: It seems that we are finding out that Petco isnt as extreme as we all once thought.

  9. 53 and 55: Thanks for posting those. They seem to support my theory (although they are miniscule differences).

    56: Germano has really been susceptible to the walk/longball combo this year. As a control pitcher, he cannot afford to give up walks. Unfortunately, the offense sounds as ineffective as ever.

    I’m off to bed. Here’s hoping the Pads pull out the guns.

  10. 55: So Fangraphs has different BABIPs listed than THT. Wonderful.

  11. 57: Well unless I am reading ZR wrong is numbers are not that bad. He is our only back up SS and he has been playing well recently at 2B when Marcus has been struggling badly.

  12. Make that a .282 wOBA for Blum this year.

  13. 61: I actually haven’t checked his ZR against the average this year. His UZR (which is a more accurate measure), however, is most definitely below average.

  14. 59: The biggest difference between Khalil this year and Khalil last year is that his walk rate has fallen by about 3%. That and the lost BABIP is why his OBP is down 50 points.

  15. 63: I posted his career ZR above, this year it is .789 at 2B and ,813 at short. But now that I look at ZR you tell me its not good enough and tell me to look at another stat I am done arguing this. Based on what I see when I have watched the games recently I see his value higher than you do I guess, especially at this point in the season when Khalil could get injured in the near future as has happened nearly every year.

  16. Gameday has Hensley getting hitting 93 consistently. For comparison, Webb is working at 90, 91.

  17. 66: Wow, i didnt think Hens could get it up that high

  18. Of course, that could be a bad thing if Hensley’s losing movement because he’s throwing too hard.

  19. How many pitches did Germano throw? Is there a reason we are going to the pen already? Besides the HR he looked ok and our ‘pen has been overworked

  20. Hairston PH in the bottom of the fifth. We’ve got 13 pitchers, might as well use ‘em!

  21. 68: Is he losing movement?

  22. I have no idea. Just remembering that velocity is not as important as movement for Hensley, and recalling some theories that Hensley was overthrowing earlier in the year, causing a loss of movement.

  23. 72: Well he got all 3 outs so hopefully its moving

  24. Very nice outing by Hensley. 3 ground balls, 3 k’s.

  25. SDSU: Fielding in baseball is certainly a tough topic to evaluate. But it has always been an interesting subject for me. Basically, errors are very subjective and fielding percentage uses errors and also doesn’t really account for range … at all. I know that’s alrady been said and I’m sue much of this has. I think we can all agree that the goal of a defensive player is to make as many plays as possible, not to not make errors. The advancements over those traditional stats have really concentrated in two areas.

    Places like BP, who for some reason have’t invested in pbp data, just adjust assists and put outs. They adjust for pitching staff, park, etc. They are pretty complicated, I believe, but probably not great because they are very rough estimites, imo. There are a few other similar metrics like this as well.

    Then you have the play by play stuff … which is better. Zone rating is the most basic, but everything else generally works off of it. You can find this at espn.com (like said earlier) or the hardball times. The hardball times separates in-zone chances and out of zone ones, so it is likely better to look at. ZR is very good, but there have been some advancements over it as well. At this point, the best public fielding systems are probably UZR and John Dewan’s plus minus. They are basically like zone rating except with a bunch of adjustments for park/pitching staff/runners on base/etc. You can find updates of this at the book blog. I don’t believe people will give you a problem if you use uzr or Dewan’s stuff (although it’s really only in his book). Regular zone rating is pretty darn good too; at least a lot better than FP.

    Defensive evaluation is pretty fun if you give it a chance, imo.

  26. 75: Interesting, but still doesnt help me understand where the numbers come from. Making a play is good, but you cant just throw away the fact that a player made an error on that play because the runner or runners advance. Errors are subjective, but 90% of the time they are downright obvious. For the most part I just like to watch and play baseball, the numbers can be interesting, but they can be a bit much for me and in my opinion are not the only thing you should use to evaluate a player.

  27. 3 innings 4 K’s and 1 hit for Hensley, anyone think he may get the start if CY is still hurt?

  28. Marcus Giles’ days are probably numbered in SD. Utility man G.Blum is not an every day option at second base. The Padres will probably give vet Frankie Menechino, some starts at second base. Menechino could add some spark with his place and he is clearly a stop gap option as well but one that I think could perform better than Giles/Blum . With Barfield I thought we had a second baseman for years and now we are at square one at second base. Well, Towers justified the Barfield trade by basically saying that second baseman are a dime a dozen….now we shall see.

  29. 79: Dont forget about Antonelli. Who is Frankie Menechino?
    Besides his defensive stumble, I have been impressed with Thatcher. I like his stuff. gotta give credit where its deserved, KT can pick up bullpen arms.

  30. 76: UZR does separate “error runs” from “range runs.” And it does this because of exactly what you’re saying. Errors, on average, have a higher penalty because of the base runner advancement that takes place after them. For example, nobody on and a ball hit up the middle … Jeter doesn’t touch it, so there’s a runner on first. Greene gets to the ball but throws it into the seats, so there’s a runner on second. Greene would get penalized for this in the UZR format (I am pretty sure).

  31. 80: Gotcha. Well, just seems like a bit much for me as an avid baseball watcher, not a stathead. I guess since I dont understand where the numbers come from, like how much is he penalized and why is it that much and not more/less, they dont mean as much to me. For a person who has fun with numbers in baseball it might be a fun way to evaluate a player. I just like to watch them play because as bas a some may think Blum is, I couldnt do it.

  32. #79 – How right you are ! I saw Antonelli play a month or so ago and I was really impressed. Also after further review (this should tell you how thin the Pads are at AAA as far as middle infielders), I guess Marcus Giles is the better option at second base. Look at some of the players on that Beavers infield (infielder Craig Stansberry is the only marginal prospect) – 30 year old Royce Huffman at 3b – Ray Chang at ss (this kid may develop but he was signed out of tryout camp two years ago and now is starting at the AAA level) – 35 year old Frank Menechico at 2b and 30 year old Brian Myrow at 1b. Wow.

  33. Portland will be alot better next year if our top guys dont make the big club. They will probably move most of SA up to AAA. KT said the club likes to keep groups of prospects together. This year Portland is a wash of just space fillers and guys jumping between ML and AAA.

  34. Antonelli (2-3, 2B, BB, R) and Headley (3-4, 2B, R) both had nice games tonight

  35. I got to give Myrow and Menechino some credit though, they are tearing it up at Portland and may very well be on the September call up list. I wouldn’t be surprised if these two won a game or two down the stretch with a 14th inning double in late September.

  36. I wish the Pads had picked up a decent vet for second base. Iguchi or Ray Durham both of whom they could have gotten cheap enough.

  37. 78: Barfield brought us Kouz, who we absolutely had to have. 3B was a black hole last year and the year before that and the year before that… You get the picture. NOG, for all his faults, is playing an excellent 2B, and if you stack him up against Josh at the plate this year, he doesn’t look much different.

    OPS+ is 70 to 62 in NOG’s favor. EQA .238 to .230 in NOG’s favor.

  38. #87 the irony of it is that we now have Chase Headley. Kouz has filled the black hole in an adequate fashion but hardly in a earth shattering fashion, hence the Ensberg pickup. Kouz may still develop though into a better hitter, he is not too far away now. The Padres brass pumped KK up way too much over the winter, (the biggest joke is how they pumped up Sledge as the leadoff hitter) as it IS KK first full MLB year. Overall, I am happy with Kouz’s potential with what he showed this year.

  39. Is there nothing that can be done with Marcus? Has there been any indication of what is causing his dramatic drop off? I’m hoping that Wally World can work some magic on him. With all of the trading done it still seems like a key to the season is to get him to perform at his career numbers. With his brother on the team it seems like getting him going would bring other intangible benefits to the clubhouse.

  40. I agree, something could/may shake loose this funk that Marcus is in. If he can get hot for a month or so it would be a huge shot in the arm !!!

  41. Jose Cruz Jr. has been released.

  42. 88: Irony? That’s good work by the front office. They acquired a fine young 3B who is ready to play this year and filled a dire need, and they are developing more prospects in the minors; Headley may be tearing up AA, but he was clearly not ready to play with the big club this year.

    You don’t really believe Ensberg was acquired to be the starting 3B, do you? KK may hav struggled out of the gate, but since May he’s been very good, much better than league average by OPS+. I don’t think you can ask for much more from a rookie.

  43. Jose Cruz Jr. is a guy I wouldn’t mind seeing again in September when the roster is expanded.

  44. Ensberg will be getting plenty of starts at third base and if he gets hot will be at third everyday and vice versa, Kouzmanoff now has some competion, which may be good for him. Headley has developed, starting with a great Winter ball stint, way more than anyone had thought. On the contrary, I think Headley is ready now but the Pads are easing him in, which maybe they should have done with Kouzmanoff.

  45. Don’t get me wrong, I like Kouzmanoff and am excited about what he will do but we are in a pennant race here (not a Texas Ranger like development August, Sept. period and Ensberg has a ton of experience when things heat up in August/September. It’s a good gamble to get Ensberg. He needs reps to be effective so he is not going to only get 2 to 3 at bats a week. Expect him to start at third.

  46. One or two more bad starts from David Wells and you may be able to find him hanging out in OB a little more in the nice SD beach days of September.

  47. 94: I agree that Ensberg is going to get some start down the stretch at 3B. Why not? Give Kouz some break and let them both be fresh enough going into September.

    Josh Barfield brought the Padres both Kouzmanoff and Bradley. He was originally traded for Kouzmanoff, and Andrew Brown who is now with the A’s.

    NOG plays better 2B than Silent L. He just need to get his groove in hitting back and temper his hacking way. Silent L is doing alright at the plate the past two weeks but probably not what the Padres want in 2B daily.

  48. JP, you have an interesting perspective. Personally, I don’t see the point of bringing in an aging and injury prone guy to replace a young and improving player just because he’s played in a pennant race before, especially when the aging and injury prone guy hasn’t been any more productive this year than the young and improving player.

    I do believe Ensberg is a better option off the bench and a better insurance policy if Kouzmanoff tanks than Branyan was, but I don’t see him being a starter while Kouzmanoff sits until, and if, Kouzmanoof plays himself out of the lineup, which he is not doing at this time.

    I am also intrigued by your “Headley is ready now, but Kouzmanoff should sit during the pennant race while the more experienced Ensberg plays” theory. Seems a bit contradictory. ;-)