Tue, Jul 31, 2007
by Geoff Young
Remember when Justin Germano was pitching well? Yeah, that was great. Go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
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July 31, 2007 at 7:02 pm
Well, this seems like a turning point kinda game and series, doesn’t it? Trading deadline done. New hitting coach, new bench, August baseball round the corner, and this is it. Are we going to hit, are we going to win series like in May and June, can the bully hold without Liny, can NOG and AGON start hitting? One thing I know is we have to start hitting better.
July 31, 2007 at 7:12 pm
I wouldnt worry about Marcus, I dont see him getting too much PT. Gonzo already started hitting, I am sure he will heat up with the august weather. The ‘pen was overworked, Scott from ‘05 will be missed but at this point we didnt need him and he’s not doing any better in Brew town. Lets just get back in 1st by sweeping the D-Backs
July 31, 2007 at 7:17 pm
bradley had to be the pick up of the year. Guy works the count, walks hits and had good speed and defense. All he needs to do is stay healthy
July 31, 2007 at 7:20 pm
Question for all you outside of SD. I am moving out of SD tomorrow. What do you all use to watch the Padres. Is season ticket worth it? I would use MLB.tv but mlb.com hates Macs.
Let me know how you all follow our Padres
July 31, 2007 at 7:21 pm
I think the question tonight is, who are we seeing for a last night in a PAdre uniform?
It’s been said that Ensberg, Mackowiak and Ledezma are all planned to be on the roster as of tomorrow. Does Geoff Blum get DFA’ed, who moves down (Hampson/Thatcher?) and who else gets squeezed off the bench?
An interesting 24 hours will ensue but I think the Padres did well this summer acquiring players and we haven’t even touched on Shea Hillenbrand who has a clause in the contract after 10 days will require a callup.
July 31, 2007 at 7:23 pm
5: With the way Blum has been swinging the bat since he has been playing everyday at 2B, I dont see them DFAing Blum. It would be nice if they moved to 11 pitchers, DFA Brocail.
July 31, 2007 at 7:24 pm
I hope we just release Hillenbrand
July 31, 2007 at 7:25 pm
Cameron just missed catching a home run and then stole a hit from the next batter.
July 31, 2007 at 7:26 pm
S. Drew tags Germano. 2-0 D-Backs
July 31, 2007 at 7:27 pm
6: Hopefully they can look past the recent small sample and cut Blummer.
July 31, 2007 at 7:28 pm
What are the odds of Hensley getting an “audition” start in CY’s spot to see if they replace Germano with Hensley?
July 31, 2007 at 7:30 pm
10: I like Blum, and he has done a good job when he gets consistant AB’s. He did well last year too. This will probably be his last year, he will finish it out as a Padre. He has been great in the role he has had and he has looked good at 2B. I would rather him be starting over Marcus and say goodbye to both at the end of the year.
July 31, 2007 at 7:33 pm
I hope we don’t add Ledezma to the active roster. He has good stuff, but has been pretty bad this year so could definitely use some time in AAA to work stuff out. Interestingly, he has also made some starts earlier in his career.
July 31, 2007 at 7:33 pm
Ever since we got Barrett, Bard has been playing well. The threat of Barrett taking his playing time made him step it up or something. I like seeing Bard out there, he has good ABs
July 31, 2007 at 7:35 pm
We should keep Germano around just to pinch hit…
July 31, 2007 at 7:37 pm
12: Geoff Blum is just a really bad hitter who doesn’t play either middle infield position at a league average level. I don’t see what he brings to the table.
July 31, 2007 at 7:40 pm
16: .995 at 2B and .962 at SS is below league average?
July 31, 2007 at 7:41 pm
17: What stats are you quoting there?
July 31, 2007 at 7:41 pm
I was referring to the pbp metrics.
July 31, 2007 at 7:42 pm
Career FP
July 31, 2007 at 7:44 pm
20: That doesn’t penalize him for all the balls he never gets to.
July 31, 2007 at 7:44 pm
20: FP is a notoriously unreliable statistic as it is dependent on errors (which are human interpretation, not objective). For example: Khalil gets to X number more balls than Blum. Because of that, he makes more errors. However, with Blum, those balls are just singles.
July 31, 2007 at 7:48 pm
I’m listening to the game from NYC tonite (just got back from the Yankees game where 7 of them homered, unreal). How are we looking so far tonite?
July 31, 2007 at 7:48 pm
20: Look at his ZR.
July 31, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Germano’s looking pretty good actually.
July 31, 2007 at 7:50 pm
25: Good. I read that Cameron almost robbed the HR?
July 31, 2007 at 7:50 pm
FP doesnt penalize Khalil for the balls he doesnt get to either, so when he half asses a play he doesnt get penalized (At least its a single for Blum and not an error so the runner advances to 2B). I know if I use the more basic statistics, you are just going to tell me they are not good enough. They work for me and its stuff I can understand easily and dont have to pay for. I didnt say Blum should be the starting SS, I said he is doing much better thn Marcus right now and is worth keeping on the team till the year is over. They you say goodbye to Blum and Marcus.
July 31, 2007 at 7:51 pm
5 k’s in 3 innings is crazy for Germano.
July 31, 2007 at 7:52 pm
Exactly what plays does Khalil half-ass? That’s about the most ridiculous assertion I’ve heard in a long time. Knock Khalil all you want for his offensive inconsistency, but you’re starting to blur the lines once you begin to attack his defensive hustle.
July 31, 2007 at 7:53 pm
28: i was just going to say that. Besides the couple hard hit balls in the 2nd he’s looked good
July 31, 2007 at 7:54 pm
27: Zone Rating is free on ESPN and it’s about as basic as it gets and it’s way, way more useful than Fielding Percentage.
July 31, 2007 at 7:55 pm
QERA of 2.47 for Germano tonight. Looks better than the 6.00 actual ERA he’s sporting.
July 31, 2007 at 7:55 pm
29: Dont get me wrong Khalil makes some amazing plays, but then alot of balls up the middle it looks like he gives up on them right away. Maybe I am used to the effort most the time, so when he just watches it roll up the middle it looks like he is half assing it. Also he seems to concede the run quite a bit, i dont know if that is his call or management though.
July 31, 2007 at 7:56 pm
27: And what do you mean they “work for you”? Why would you choose an inferior metric when superior metrics are readily available from places as easy to find as ESPN.com?
July 31, 2007 at 7:58 pm
Brandon Webb has massive platoon splits. .533 OPS against to righties, .800 OPS against to lefties. It would be a good game to have Mackowiak.
July 31, 2007 at 7:58 pm
33: “When in doubt, get an out.” I’m pretty sure that’s a managerial philosophy.
So, let me ask you this. If the same bat is hit up the middle and both Rafael Furcal and Khalil Greene don’t react, does that mean Khalil half-assed the play?
July 31, 2007 at 8:02 pm
35: Those splits are, in fact, massive.
July 31, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Wow, all Webb’s outs in play have come on fly balls. Very weird for him.
July 31, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Blum’s ZR for 2B and SS are above league average unless I am not reading it right .807 2B .839 SS?
July 31, 2007 at 8:04 pm
36: When you play so many close games shouldnt you try to get the guy at the plate more often though?
July 31, 2007 at 8:06 pm
34: Because I am used to going to other places than ESPN.com and looking at FP I guess. Its easy for me to understand, I see ZR now but I am not sure I understand it…
July 31, 2007 at 8:08 pm
#16 Explain this to me - Blum is 10 for his last 30 with 5 walks and you indicate that he is a “bad” hitter who brings little (and believe me, he is not a good hitter but a rather average one but even I have to admit that he deserves a roster spot) and you are perturbed when the Padre’s release a guy in Branyan (saying that he is a “good hitter” ) who has been hitting a buck sixty since April and had walked only once or twice in his last 50+ ap’s. Look, Blum has stepped up his game at the right time and remember, the Padres do not have a viable option to back up Khalil at shortstop.
July 31, 2007 at 8:08 pm
Dang I didnt realize Khalil’s OBP was down to .269. The whole team has got to start having better at bats.
July 31, 2007 at 8:08 pm
40: Again, it’s a management philosophy. I don’t think the players have much say in it. If you’re pulled in, you’ll probably look home. If you’re at regular depth, you probably won’t.
July 31, 2007 at 8:09 pm
Angry, angry, pissed. AG just swung at a ball that would have hit the top of his feet. Camy swung an missed. The oly guy who can hit is MB and they just pitch around him. What is wrong with the FUCKING hitting on this team. Its killing me.
Sorry for the swearing but its soooo frustrating. We can’t hit. MB is the only guy capable of working a count.
Grrrrrrrr!!!
July 31, 2007 at 8:09 pm
Germano also has a large platoon split, but it’s a reverse one. .776 OPS against by righties and .625 OPS against by lefties. About half the plate appearances against him have come from each side, so the sample size isn’t that small. His BABIP is significantly lower to lefties, but so is the ISO power he gives up. I’ve read that Zito has had success in the past by limiting BABIP to righties because of his big curveball, and he’s another guy with a reverse split.
July 31, 2007 at 8:10 pm
42: Are you seriously quoting me his last 30 AB? Blum has a .284 wOBA this season. League average is .333. His career numbers are also poor. As for Branyan, I’m tired of explaining that to you.
July 31, 2007 at 8:11 pm
44: i understand its the management philosophy but wouldnt you think with the amount of close games we play they might change that?
July 31, 2007 at 8:12 pm
Could anyone compare Khalil’s K rates and BABIP from this year to last year? I really feel that he is K’ing less and putting more balls in play, but I’d obviously like to see the stats behind it.
July 31, 2007 at 8:14 pm
47: Lets just all agree that Branyan has been replaced with a better bench at the deadline.
As far as Blum, I guess we see his usefulness recently, but with no other option at SS if KG gets hurt (which hopefully doesnt happen but is likely) he has gotta stick around for his versatility and he has been playing well recently.
July 31, 2007 at 8:14 pm
I left San Diego to head to Newark, NJ for business tomorrow. I land and start checking DS to see what I missed. That was a full day.
Re:4. If you’ve got a friend who will let you hook up a slingbox to his spare tv, you can pick up San Diego television wherever you have an internet connection. I’m here in Jersey watching Matt and Mudd. Once you pay for the box, there’s no expense after that. I can also pick it up on my cell phone.
July 31, 2007 at 8:14 pm
47: Lets just all agree that Branyan has been replaced with a better bench at the deadline.
As far as Blum, I guess we see his usefulness differently, but with no other option at SS if KG gets hurt (which hopefully doesnt happen but is likely) he has gotta stick around for his versatility and he has been playing well recently.
July 31, 2007 at 8:16 pm
49: BABIP is lower by .018. K Rate is .013 lower.
July 31, 2007 at 8:16 pm
51: The only people I am close enough with to put that in their house just moved out of SD as well. Anyone have Extra Innings?
July 31, 2007 at 8:17 pm
Hey, does everyone remember that time the Dodgers traded their best chip for a reliever that has problems with the long ball and walks, neither of which will be rectified in Chavez Ravine? What a good day.
Oh, back on topic in re: to #49:
His BABIP is .254 after .277 last year, and he’s striking out 20% of the time instead of 21.1%. He has 362 balls in play this year against 327 last year (375 AB in 2007, 412 in 2006)
July 31, 2007 at 8:18 pm
Petco isn’t doing a very good job of helping Germano with his homer problem.
July 31, 2007 at 8:19 pm
52: Clearly we see his value differently. What are you basing your opinion on? The numbers don’t support your view, so what is it?
July 31, 2007 at 8:20 pm
56: It seems that we are finding out that Petco isnt as extreme as we all once thought.
July 31, 2007 at 8:21 pm
53 and 55: Thanks for posting those. They seem to support my theory (although they are miniscule differences).
56: Germano has really been susceptible to the walk/longball combo this year. As a control pitcher, he cannot afford to give up walks. Unfortunately, the offense sounds as ineffective as ever.
I’m off to bed. Here’s hoping the Pads pull out the guns.
July 31, 2007 at 8:21 pm
55: So Fangraphs has different BABIPs listed than THT. Wonderful.
July 31, 2007 at 8:22 pm
57: Well unless I am reading ZR wrong is numbers are not that bad. He is our only back up SS and he has been playing well recently at 2B when Marcus has been struggling badly.
July 31, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Make that a .282 wOBA for Blum this year.
July 31, 2007 at 8:24 pm
61: I actually haven’t checked his ZR against the average this year. His UZR (which is a more accurate measure), however, is most definitely below average.
July 31, 2007 at 8:26 pm
59: The biggest difference between Khalil this year and Khalil last year is that his walk rate has fallen by about 3%. That and the lost BABIP is why his OBP is down 50 points.
July 31, 2007 at 8:29 pm
63: I posted his career ZR above, this year it is .789 at 2B and ,813 at short. But now that I look at ZR you tell me its not good enough and tell me to look at another stat I am done arguing this. Based on what I see when I have watched the games recently I see his value higher than you do I guess, especially at this point in the season when Khalil could get injured in the near future as has happened nearly every year.
July 31, 2007 at 8:33 pm
Gameday has Hensley getting hitting 93 consistently. For comparison, Webb is working at 90, 91.
July 31, 2007 at 8:34 pm
66: Wow, i didnt think Hens could get it up that high
July 31, 2007 at 8:36 pm
Of course, that could be a bad thing if Hensley’s losing movement because he’s throwing too hard.
July 31, 2007 at 8:37 pm
How many pitches did Germano throw? Is there a reason we are going to the pen already? Besides the HR he looked ok and our ‘pen has been overworked
July 31, 2007 at 8:38 pm
Hairston PH in the bottom of the fifth. We’ve got 13 pitchers, might as well use ‘em!
July 31, 2007 at 8:38 pm
68: Is he losing movement?
July 31, 2007 at 8:41 pm
I have no idea. Just remembering that velocity is not as important as movement for Hensley, and recalling some theories that Hensley was overthrowing earlier in the year, causing a loss of movement.
July 31, 2007 at 8:43 pm
72: Well he got all 3 outs so hopefully its moving
July 31, 2007 at 8:51 pm
Very nice outing by Hensley. 3 ground balls, 3 k’s.
July 31, 2007 at 8:58 pm
SDSU: Fielding in baseball is certainly a tough topic to evaluate. But it has always been an interesting subject for me. Basically, errors are very subjective and fielding percentage uses errors and also doesn’t really account for range … at all. I know that’s alrady been said and I’m sue much of this has. I think we can all agree that the goal of a defensive player is to make as many plays as possible, not to not make errors. The advancements over those traditional stats have really concentrated in two areas.
Places like BP, who for some reason have’t invested in pbp data, just adjust assists and put outs. They adjust for pitching staff, park, etc. They are pretty complicated, I believe, but probably not great because they are very rough estimites, imo. There are a few other similar metrics like this as well.
Then you have the play by play stuff … which is better. Zone rating is the most basic, but everything else generally works off of it. You can find this at espn.com (like said earlier) or the hardball times. The hardball times separates in-zone chances and out of zone ones, so it is likely better to look at. ZR is very good, but there have been some advancements over it as well. At this point, the best public fielding systems are probably UZR and John Dewan’s plus minus. They are basically like zone rating except with a bunch of adjustments for park/pitching staff/runners on base/etc. You can find updates of this at the book blog. I don’t believe people will give you a problem if you use uzr or Dewan’s stuff (although it’s really only in his book). Regular zone rating is pretty darn good too; at least a lot better than FP.
Defensive evaluation is pretty fun if you give it a chance, imo.
July 31, 2007 at 9:11 pm
75: Interesting, but still doesnt help me understand where the numbers come from. Making a play is good, but you cant just throw away the fact that a player made an error on that play because the runner or runners advance. Errors are subjective, but 90% of the time they are downright obvious. For the most part I just like to watch and play baseball, the numbers can be interesting, but they can be a bit much for me and in my opinion are not the only thing you should use to evaluate a player.
July 31, 2007 at 9:15 pm
3 innings 4 K’s and 1 hit for Hensley, anyone think he may get the start if CY is still hurt?
July 31, 2007 at 9:16 pm
Marcus Giles’ days are probably numbered in SD. Utility man G.Blum is not an every day option at second base. The Padres will probably give vet Frankie Menechino, some starts at second base. Menechino could add some spark with his place and he is clearly a stop gap option as well but one that I think could perform better than Giles/Blum . With Barfield I thought we had a second baseman for years and now we are at square one at second base. Well, Towers justified the Barfield trade by basically saying that second baseman are a dime a dozen….now we shall see.
July 31, 2007 at 9:20 pm
79: Dont forget about Antonelli. Who is Frankie Menechino?
Besides his defensive stumble, I have been impressed with Thatcher. I like his stuff. gotta give credit where its deserved, KT can pick up bullpen arms.
July 31, 2007 at 9:22 pm
76: UZR does separate “error runs” from “range runs.” And it does this because of exactly what you’re saying. Errors, on average, have a higher penalty because of the base runner advancement that takes place after them. For example, nobody on and a ball hit up the middle … Jeter doesn’t touch it, so there’s a runner on first. Greene gets to the ball but throws it into the seats, so there’s a runner on second. Greene would get penalized for this in the UZR format (I am pretty sure).
July 31, 2007 at 9:28 pm
80: Gotcha. Well, just seems like a bit much for me as an avid baseball watcher, not a stathead. I guess since I dont understand where the numbers come from, like how much is he penalized and why is it that much and not more/less, they dont mean as much to me. For a person who has fun with numbers in baseball it might be a fun way to evaluate a player. I just like to watch them play because as bas a some may think Blum is, I couldnt do it.
July 31, 2007 at 9:28 pm
#79 - How right you are ! I saw Antonelli play a month or so ago and I was really impressed. Also after further review (this should tell you how thin the Pads are at AAA as far as middle infielders), I guess Marcus Giles is the better option at second base. Look at some of the players on that Beavers infield (infielder Craig Stansberry is the only marginal prospect) - 30 year old Royce Huffman at 3b - Ray Chang at ss (this kid may develop but he was signed out of tryout camp two years ago and now is starting at the AAA level) - 35 year old Frank Menechico at 2b and 30 year old Brian Myrow at 1b. Wow.
July 31, 2007 at 9:32 pm
Portland will be alot better next year if our top guys dont make the big club. They will probably move most of SA up to AAA. KT said the club likes to keep groups of prospects together. This year Portland is a wash of just space fillers and guys jumping between ML and AAA.
July 31, 2007 at 9:37 pm
Antonelli (2-3, 2B, BB, R) and Headley (3-4, 2B, R) both had nice games tonight
July 31, 2007 at 9:41 pm
I got to give Myrow and Menechino some credit though, they are tearing it up at Portland and may very well be on the September call up list. I wouldn’t be surprised if these two won a game or two down the stretch with a 14th inning double in late September.
July 31, 2007 at 9:52 pm
I wish the Pads had picked up a decent vet for second base. Iguchi or Ray Durham both of whom they could have gotten cheap enough.
July 31, 2007 at 10:01 pm
78: Barfield brought us Kouz, who we absolutely had to have. 3B was a black hole last year and the year before that and the year before that… You get the picture. NOG, for all his faults, is playing an excellent 2B, and if you stack him up against Josh at the plate this year, he doesn’t look much different.
OPS+ is 70 to 62 in NOG’s favor. EQA .238 to .230 in NOG’s favor.
July 31, 2007 at 10:13 pm
#87 the irony of it is that we now have Chase Headley. Kouz has filled the black hole in an adequate fashion but hardly in a earth shattering fashion, hence the Ensberg pickup. Kouz may still develop though into a better hitter, he is not too far away now. The Padres brass pumped KK up way too much over the winter, (the biggest joke is how they pumped up Sledge as the leadoff hitter) as it IS KK first full MLB year. Overall, I am happy with Kouz’s potential with what he showed this year.
.
July 31, 2007 at 10:20 pm
Is there nothing that can be done with Marcus? Has there been any indication of what is causing his dramatic drop off? I’m hoping that Wally World can work some magic on him. With all of the trading done it still seems like a key to the season is to get him to perform at his career numbers. With his brother on the team it seems like getting him going would bring other intangible benefits to the clubhouse.
July 31, 2007 at 10:24 pm
I agree, something could/may shake loose this funk that Marcus is in. If he can get hot for a month or so it would be a huge shot in the arm !!!
July 31, 2007 at 10:29 pm
Jose Cruz Jr. has been released.
July 31, 2007 at 10:32 pm
88: Irony? That’s good work by the front office. They acquired a fine young 3B who is ready to play this year and filled a dire need, and they are developing more prospects in the minors; Headley may be tearing up AA, but he was clearly not ready to play with the big club this year.
You don’t really believe Ensberg was acquired to be the starting 3B, do you? KK may hav struggled out of the gate, but since May he’s been very good, much better than league average by OPS+. I don’t think you can ask for much more from a rookie.
July 31, 2007 at 10:32 pm
Jose Cruz Jr. is a guy I wouldn’t mind seeing again in September when the roster is expanded.
July 31, 2007 at 10:35 pm
Ensberg will be getting plenty of starts at third base and if he gets hot will be at third everyday and vice versa, Kouzmanoff now has some competion, which may be good for him. Headley has developed, starting with a great Winter ball stint, way more than anyone had thought. On the contrary, I think Headley is ready now but the Pads are easing him in, which maybe they should have done with Kouzmanoff.
July 31, 2007 at 10:39 pm
Don’t get me wrong, I like Kouzmanoff and am excited about what he will do but we are in a pennant race here (not a Texas Ranger like development August, Sept. period and Ensberg has a ton of experience when things heat up in August/September. It’s a good gamble to get Ensberg. He needs reps to be effective so he is not going to only get 2 to 3 at bats a week. Expect him to start at third.
July 31, 2007 at 10:45 pm
One or two more bad starts from David Wells and you may be able to find him hanging out in OB a little more in the nice SD beach days of September.
August 1, 2007 at 9:33 am
94: I agree that Ensberg is going to get some start down the stretch at 3B. Why not? Give Kouz some break and let them both be fresh enough going into September.
Josh Barfield brought the Padres both Kouzmanoff and Bradley. He was originally traded for Kouzmanoff, and Andrew Brown who is now with the A’s.
NOG plays better 2B than Silent L. He just need to get his groove in hitting back and temper his hacking way. Silent L is doing alright at the plate the past two weeks but probably not what the Padres want in 2B daily.
August 1, 2007 at 11:23 pm
JP, you have an interesting perspective. Personally, I don’t see the point of bringing in an aging and injury prone guy to replace a young and improving player just because he’s played in a pennant race before, especially when the aging and injury prone guy hasn’t been any more productive this year than the young and improving player.
I do believe Ensberg is a better option off the bench and a better insurance policy if Kouzmanoff tanks than Branyan was, but I don’t see him being a starter while Kouzmanoff sits until, and if, Kouzmanoof plays himself out of the lineup, which he is not doing at this time.
I am also intrigued by your “Headley is ready now, but Kouzmanoff should sit during the pennant race while the more experienced Ensberg plays” theory. Seems a bit contradictory.