Padres Farm Report: Spotlight on San Antonio
Wed, Aug 13, 2008
by Geoff Young
I once caught a game at San Antonio’s Wolff Stadium, back when the Missions were a Mariners affiliate. It’s a nice ballpark in a nice town — definitely on my short list of places to return to one of these years, especially now that the Padres have their Double-A team there…
San Antonio Missions in a Box:
Record: 63-56
Runs Scored: 557
Runs Allowed: 479
BA/OBP/SLG: .265/.349/.392 (Texas League: .269/.341/.410)
ERA: 3.46 (TL: 4.33)
DER: .656 (TL: .647)
Source: Baseball-Reference.
This is a good ballclub with some solid young talent. The pitching has been superb (San Antonio leads the league in ERA by a healthy margin — the second place team is closer to last than first), although we need to attach a disclaimer: Over the past three seasons, Wolff Stadium has suppressed offense at about the same level as Petco Park. Here are the park factors for these two venues (average is 1000, lower favors pitchers):
| 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statistics are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus 2008. | |||
| Wolff Stadium | 928 | 918 | 905 |
| Petco Park | 920 | 919 | 910 |
Obviously, this doesn’t negate the accomplishments of guys who pitch there, but we do need to take environment into consideration when making our evaluations.
The big names at San Antonio in 2008 include first baseman Kyle Blanks (whom I ranked as the Padres #5 prospect entering the season), left fielder Chad Huffman, right-hander Will Inman (#8), and left-hander Steve Garrison.
Others to note are center fielder Drew Macias, shortstop Sean Kazmar (who was recalled to the big club on Monday), right fielder Craig Cooper, catcher Jose Lobaton, and right-handers Matthew Buschmann, Stephen Faris, and Manny Ayala. Let’s take a closer look…
Kyle Blanks: .307/.387/.473; .603 BB/K, .092 BB/PA, .166 ISO, .283 XB/H
If you’ve spent any time here at all, you know I’m a big fan of Blanks. The 21-year-old first baseman has hit between .292 and .307 in each of his four minor-league seasons, and is starting to flash the power expected of a man listed at 6′6″, 270+ lbs. Unfortunately, the latter is coming at the expense of a disciplined approach that had served him well earlier in the season. Before the All-Star break, Blanks hit .315/.405/.446 with 35 walks and 36 strikeouts; since then he’s hitting .292/.353/.519 with 9 walks and 37 strikeouts. Obviously the results have been positive, but I question the shift in approach. Blanks is too good a hitter to be relying on a hack-and-slash strategy, and I can’t help but wonder if he’s feeling pressure to hit for more power. It would be a shame if his offensive game deteriorated because some folks think a kid his size should be able to crank the ball out of the park with greater regularity. I still really like Blanks and what he’s doing this year at Double-A, but his performance so far in the second half is cause for concern. He has no home/road splits to speak of, which is nice.
Chad Huffman: .285/.384/.425; .799 BB/K, .129 BB/PA, .140 ISO, .321 XB/H
I’m not a huge believer in Huffman, but as always, I hope the player proves me wrong. He is 23 years old and strictly a left fielder, which means he has to keep crushing baseballs at every level to have a chance. This probably isn’t a fair comparison, but whenever I see someone with his skill set, I think of a guy like Kevin Mench — useful in the right context, but not special. Huffman has severe lefty/righty splits and hasn’t done well in his home park (eight of his nine homers have come on the road). On the bright side, he controls the strike zone fairly well and hits a lot of doubles. No matter how hard I try, I just can’t get excited about Huffman. Nothing would make me happier than for him to make me look like an idiot for saying that.
Drew Macias: .292/.402/.418; 1.014 BB/K, .145 BB/PA, .126 ISO, .285 XB/H
Yeah, Macias is 25, but he has good on-base skills and plays a legitimate center field. Not every prospect is destined to become a starter in the big leagues. Guys with Macias’ skill set could have value as a fourth or fifth outfielder at some point. Just don’t expect much more than that, and you’ll be fine.
Sean Kazmar: .264/.333/.359; .576 BB/K, .088 BB/PA, .095 ISO, .267 XB/H
Kazmar’s presence here says more about the Padres lack of depth at shortstop in the high minors than it does about his status as a prospect. He’s a decent defender but offers very little at the plate. The 23-year-old Kazmar is sort of a middle-infield version of Luke Carlin — he’ll do in a pinch, but it’s best to have other options. If everything breaks right, Kazmar could be the new Rafael Santana.
Craig Cooper: .277/.347/.408; .456 BB/K, .087 BB/PA, .131 ISO, .304 XB/H
Cooper is a big kid who doesn’t hit for much power. He’s also 23, so it’s hard to say whether he’ll develop more. Cooper can play both corner outfield spots and first base; if he hits enough, he could end up on a big-league bench one of these years. Again, this may not sound exciting to you, but I imagine that Cooper feels otherwise.
Jose Lobaton: .251/.317/.402; .412 BB/K, .095 BB/PA, .151 ISO, .385 XB/H
In the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual I said that Lobaton “could develop into a solid backup catcher,” and that still sounds about right to me. The 23-year-old switch-hitter from Venezuela has put up much better numbers against right-handers, although this could be partly a result of his having seen so few southpaws (42 AB). The other extreme split for Lobaton comes as something of a surprise: He’s actually hitting much better at home (.311/.388/.500) than on the road (.189/.241/.299). If Lobaton can put up those numbers at a place like Wolff Stadium, then maybe he has a chance.
Will Inman: 3.43 ERA, 4.52 BB/9, 9.71 K/9
There is some question as to whether Inman can remain a starting pitcher. Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus doesn’t think so, comparing Inman to former big-league reliever Jeff Nelson. I haven’t seen Inman pitch (the photo is from a spring training workout), so I can’t comment on Sheehan’s concerns. It’s worth noting, however, that Tommy Lasorda once didn’t think Pedro Martinez could remain a starting pitcher. Obviously Inman isn’t Martinez, but the point is, it’s difficult to know what will come to pass until it actually does. Don’t believe me? Try winning the lottery.
Anyway, as he usually does, Inman is dominating his league. It’d be nice to see him get those walk totals down a bit — he’s already set a single-season high — but when you’re missing as many bats as he is, I suppose a little wildness can be forgiven. Inman isn’t a real big kid, and apparently he doesn’t impress in person as much as he does on paper. (Lest anyone think I’m picking on Sheehan, whose larger point about the need to balance statistical evaluation with actual observation I completely agree with, I’ve heard others voice similar sentiments about Inman.) Still, when you’re 21 years old, kicking butt in Double-A, and striking out better than 10 batters per 9 innings for the career, you must be doing something right.
Steve Garrison: 3.61 ERA, 2.38 BB/9, 7.44 K/9
Garrison came over from Milwaukee (along with Inman) in last summer’s Scott Linebrink deal. The 21-year-old southpaw isn’t overpowering but has been effective at every minor-league stop. He’s been especially tough on lefties this year (.179 BAA). For most of the season, his numbers have been solid but not spectacular, the exception being June, when he went 2-0 with a 1.33 ERA in five starts. One caveat: Garrison’s ERA is nearly a run lower at Wolff Stadium than away from it. This may or may not be indicative of anything, but it’s worth mentioning.
Matthew Buschmann: 3.00 ERA, 3.29 BB/9, 7.14 K/9
Taken in the 15th round of the 2006 draft out of Vanderbilt, Buschmann lacks the pedigree of many other pitchers in the system. At age 24, he’s a tad old for the Texas League, but all the guy has done at every level is get hitters out. Buschmann is around the plate a lot, but because of his age and lack of dominance, he’ll need to keep proving himself. Lefties have given him trouble this year. They’re hitting .314 against him, and they account for half of the dozen homers he’s allowed. His strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is better than 3-to-1 against right-handed batters, is just about even against southpaws. He’ll need to figure out a way to neutralize lefties if he wants to remain in the rotation at higher levels.
Stephen Faris: 3.30 ERA, 2.61 BB/9, 6.98 K/9
Faris is another 24-year-old finesse guy who gets almost no play as a prospect. There’s a good reason for that: pitchers who struggle to strike out 6 batters per 9 innings (his career mark is 5.96 K/9) typically don’t turn into successful big leaguers. That said, Faris is enjoying a fine campaign at Double-A. Like Buschmann, Faris has done better against right-handers than lefties. There’s a chance that one of these two guys will become the next Mike Thompson, but I’m not sure which one.
Manny Ayala: 3.86 ERA, 4.11 BB/9, 7.59 K/9
I probably like Ayala too much. He impressed me the few times I saw him pitch at Elsinore last year. Most of the comments that apply to Buschmann and Faris apply to Ayala as well: not terribly young, not overpowering, around the plate. I think he’s still worth watching, but temper your expectations.
* * *
I saw Cesar Carillo pitch at Lake Elsinore on Sunday. He gave up three hits, all ground balls that found holes. As his final line would suggest, Carrillo didn’t have much in the way of command, which is in stark contrast to the only other time I’ve seen him on the mound. Still, a bit of rust is to be expected after missing so much time. Personally I’m giving him a mulligan for the season in terms of performance. Like Clay Hensley, Carrillo gets credit just for being out there and throwing some innings. Next year, of course, is different; then he’ll need to produce.
* * *
I also got my first look at right-hander Robert Woodard. He’s probably not a prospect, but he might be my favorite pitcher in the organization (it’s a toss-up between him and Dirk Hayhurst) because he relies almost exclusively on guile. Woodard also is a former North Carolina state chess champion, which is just way too cool. Anyway, Woodard retired all eight batters he faced in relief of Carrillo on Sunday and got extra style points for that crazy karate kick in his delivery.
* * *
Finally, the Padres have extended their player development agreement with the Fort Wayne Wizards through 2010. This pleases me not only because I have fond memories of the place, but also because I like to see continuity in the organization. Why? Well, I don’t know. It makes me feel better, I suppose…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
August 13, 2008 at 7:54 am
On the surface the SA rotation looks great, but all of them have K/9 around 7 to 7.5 haven’t we figured out that normally guys like that turn back into pumpkins eventually?
Man we could use Blanks bat in the lineup…are they still saying that he is athletic enough to play the OF? Couldn’t be too much worse than klesko right?
August 13, 2008 at 8:09 am
UT is reporting that Mooneyham wants more than $1 M and that the Padres are still deep in negotiations with him. If we get Mooneyham and fail to sign Dykstra, is this a good draft?
August 13, 2008 at 8:14 am
yes because the pads will get the dykstra pick back.
August 13, 2008 at 8:20 am
#3@Steve C: But it will still be a black eye to the Padres scouts because they did not do thier homework on Dykstra, which really does not look good after the Schmidt injury.
August 13, 2008 at 8:37 am
#4@Steve C: The only caveat would be if what’s bothering them isn’t the hip. If they found something else, then knowing about the hip wouldn’t have helped them.
If it is the hip, then yes, it’s bad, because they should have known there was some chance that it would be bad enough they wouldn’t want to sign him.
August 13, 2008 at 8:53 am
#5@Tom Waits: Either way it still looks bad that they did not sign their first round draft pick when he is not demanding crazy money.
August 13, 2008 at 9:07 am
#6@Steve C: If we can agree that there are some things that a team might discover that would lead them to justifiably not sign a player, then not signing him can’t ALWAYS look bad. If a kid gets in a bad car crash and breaks a few important bones, and is looking at 8 months of physical therapy, that would seem to be a perfectly valid reason not to sign him no matter what he’s asking for. That’s especially true when signing him costs you a pick the next time around.
If what they found is related to the hip, then it looks really bad. They basically threw away a pick so they could get a closer look at a guy who had some chance of being too risky even for slot money. That’s something they should have known about beforehand. The only real out, for me, is if they found something new and different.
August 13, 2008 at 9:19 am
#7@Tom Waits: Right I agree I just don’t see any other reason other than the hip as to why they are not signing him. If there is another justifiable reason I have no clue why they are not saying it so it doesn’t look like they completely bumbled it. Its hard for them to tell us that they are going to build through the draft and then not sign their first pick…They get the pick back next year but who knows how good of a draft class it will be and if they can get a player as good as Dykstra (or anyone else that was available at the time) with the pick.
August 13, 2008 at 9:24 am
#2@Phantom: On the other hand, the North County Times is reporting that Mooneyham is demanding more than $2M, and that Padres offered him $1.4M. I say lets offer him 1.75M and call it a day.
http://tinyurl.com/5d57rd
August 13, 2008 at 9:32 am
#4@Steve C: From my point of view, it comes down to gambling with your eyes open, and understanding the risks. If they took Dykstra understanding that he may not pass the physical, because they did not like anyone else in the first round. I don’t have a problem with that. If they took him, without doing the background work, that is unaccetable. We will never know, which it was.
August 13, 2008 at 9:37 am
#10@Field39:I don’t really like either approach at this point…If they had the Brewers farm system I think it would be ok to take a gamble like that but the Padres need all of the top players they can get their hands on at the moment, that’s why I said it would be a good draft if they sign Mooneyham but in reality they really need to sign both if they want to build through the farm.
August 13, 2008 at 9:43 am
#8@Steve C: They wouldn’t be able to talk about a medical reason that hadn’t been publicly disclosed. That’s illegal.
Even if they’re somewhat justified in passing on him, they’d probably take a very safe pick with #24 next year. The compensation doesn’t carry over and they’ll hopefully have already taken someone very good and expensive with their very first selection.
#10@Field39: If that was the case, though, why not just bump everyone else on your board up one notch? Why take the chance that another team would grab Decker or Darnell or Forsythe? It’s a really risky way to get a closer look at somebody. It’s also hard to imagine they wouldn’t have liked Friedrich, Schlereth, or Chisenall enough to pick them if they thought there was a decent chance that Dykstra wouldn’t pass the physical.
August 13, 2008 at 9:45 am
#2@Phantom: IMO YES!
I honestly would rather have taken Moonyham in the 1st instead of Dykstra but I know why that didn’t happen. The Dykstra thing bothers me but only a little. The teams don’t get to do a ton of physical evaluations on players like the NFL. The Padres knew there was a hip issue from Dykstra’s high school years but that was a long time ago. After looking at it and seeing what they think could be a degenerative hip issue they don’t exactly want to sink a whole bunch of money into a kid that is fine now but in 2 or 3 years might need to retire because he cant walk. I get it and I understand. I actually think that if they didn’t get the comp pick next year they would probably sign him but why risk it unless he will accept a lot less money when you get the same pick again next year?
August 13, 2008 at 9:50 am
#13@KRS1:
Agree that Mooneyham would make up for Dykstra, but it seems unlikely.
Can’t agree on the hip thing. It takes about two minutes on Google to find out that Dykstra’s hip issue can often turn into a degenerative condition. That shouldn’t have been a surprise. Maybe they found that it already had degenerated, but that possibility shouldn’t have been a surprise.
Agree again on the comp pick. If that rule wasn’t in place, they’d try to sign him for 700K or around there.
August 13, 2008 at 9:59 am
I think we can get a better prospect than Dykstra with next year’s #24 pick, should it come to that. Maybe the FO is thinking that one of the many impressive high school arms available in the ‘09 draft could slip to us, and would be a better match than Dykstra for the development timeline of our recent international free agent signings. Of course, that would mean they were putting all their eggs in the 2014-2017 basket, so we could be in for a pretty rough half-decade…
August 13, 2008 at 10:00 am
#14@Tom Waits:
It definitely seems like there is a flawed medical evaluation process somewhere here and they probably should have known more about the risk in drafting Dykstra. As far as medical evaluations and google medical stuff, I’m not going to pretend to be a doctor but if that is true then yes I do fault the FO a lot more. I am cool with the fact that if they found somthing I would rather them not waste resources and just try again next year. Hopefully they learned something.
August 13, 2008 at 11:04 am
#12@Tom Waits: Ah did not know that they could not release that.
#15@Lance Richardson: I would be shocked if the current FO takes a highschool arm in the first round.
August 13, 2008 at 11:04 am
#15@Lance Richardson: I don’t know if one pick means that the FO is putting all their eggs in winning 5 years from now. . .
August 13, 2008 at 11:06 am
I think I would be really pissed off about this season if they had the Yankees payroll. Obviously they don’t. But you gotta dance with the person that brought you to the dance. The talent is there. They just went into a group slump instead of a group hug.
August 13, 2008 at 11:12 am
#17@Steve C: There were several articles this year talking about how high they were on Ethan Martin and Aaron Hicks. Of course, it’s easy to be high on guys picked in the teens when you don’t pick until 22.
August 13, 2008 at 11:13 am
#17@Steve C: Especially since their very first pick should cost them 3-5 million at a minimum next year. A kid like Strasburg (not saying we’d get him) will be looking for a 7+ million major league deal. The major league part lets you spread it out, but that second first rounder is a lot more likely to be a college reliever, maybe even a college senior reliever, than a high school arm.
August 13, 2008 at 11:16 am
#21@Tom Waits: exactly it will be low slot or bust!
August 13, 2008 at 11:16 am
#20@Ben B.: And Martin (a kid I loved) has already had knee surgery. Are the Padres now capable of jinxing players merely by expressing interest in them?
August 13, 2008 at 11:26 am
Of course, the numerous outstanding HS arms in ‘09 could mean that a top flight position player could slip to us.
I wouldn’t be shocked if, after taking a top college hitter of starter near the top of the first round, they took a shot at a HS pitcher toward the end of the first round. The current FO doesn’t completely ignore the existence of an entire catagory of prospects (HS pitchers, for example). They’re just cautious regarding such players.
August 13, 2008 at 11:29 am
The more likely explanation is that the Padres front office has no idea what they are doing in the draft. Look at their 4th round pick Jason Kipnis. Slot for his pick is around $250k but he wants at least $600k more then that, according to the UT. Shouldn’t the Padres have known about that before they drafted him? I guess it’s certainly possible that he raised his bonus demands to ensure that the he doesn’t end up with the Padres (understandable if you are a hitter) but again the Padres should have known that he didn’t want to play for them (if that’s the case). The only other option is that they drafted him hoping that he didn’t want as much money as he said — in other words they essentially threw the pick away. Can they really afford to do that?
August 13, 2008 at 11:46 am
#24@Lance Richardson: I wouldn’t think they’d avoid a HS arm with pick 24 because they’re opposed to HS arms on principle. It’ll be because, unless they go ultra-cheap with their very first pick, they’ll want a safe player who is pretty likely to sign for a known amount. That’s how they’ve approached their supplemental picks, even Decker. They’ll probably spend 75% of their draft budget on their first pick. They don’t get another comp pick if they fail to sign 24. It’ll be a major upset if they don’t go for a slot or below-slot collegian there.
#25@Schlom: No, that’s not more likely. They did sign Figueroa, another draft-eligible sophomore. Teams will normally try to gauge signability, but it’s against MLB rules to actually have a pre-draft deal in place (some teams still do it), but you usually wouldn’t get that fair with a 4th round pick. That’s what happened with Boston and Mark Texiera before he went to GA Tech. They wanted him to name a price, and he told them “Draft me and find out.” If you’ll only draft guys that give you 100% clarity on what they’ll sign for, then you’ll only draft safe, low-ceiling players, which has been a problem. You’ve pointed it out many times. You can’t have it both ways - the Padres can either be safe and pick guys they know will sign or they can draft kids with upside and negotiate.
Talk about what’s likely - Kipnis is far more likely to have raised his bonus demands because he thinks he’ll be drafted in the 1st two rounds next year than because he’s afraid of hitting in Petco Park four years from now.
August 13, 2008 at 12:14 pm
#26@Tom Waits: Agree totally with regards to the drafting strategy.
Maybe I’m in the minority here, but I see the amateur draft as this incredibly difficult undertaking with so many variables.
I mean, think about it. You have literally millions of kids who are draft elligible every year, and you somehow have to whittle it down to 50 picks? You rarely see many of the people you draft before the draft, and even if you do, you see them maybe twice at the most? Other times, you’re relying on statistics that might not be all the useful if the kid plays in a terrible league.
Then, once you’ve narrowed down the players you want to select, you still have to contend with the whims of 29 other teams.
Sometimes I feel like some people here act like the draft is an exact, obvious science. Am I alone in thinking that the draft is incredibly complicated and relies on a good deal of luck?
August 13, 2008 at 12:34 pm
#26@Tom Waits: Why didn’t the Padres know that he was asking for 1st or 2nd round money? Do you think he raised it after he was drafted? He had a good final series when ASU lost to Fresno State in 3 games (7-14 with 4 RBI, no XBH, 1 walk, 2 K’s) but wasn’t exactly great in the Cape Cod League (264/364/356). So it’s doubtful that something changed from the time that the Padres drafted him until they seriously started to try to sign him.
Whatever the Padres drafting philosophy is, they still have to sign a player. It makes absolutely no sense to draft someone, especially in the 4th round where there are other players that are just as good, that you don’t really intend to sign. Mooneyham is obviously different since it’s not like they likely passed on another good player to take him.
Everyone knows, and this includes the Padres Front Office, knows that teams that have small payrolls have to have strong farm systems if they want to compete long-term. But it appears that they really have no intention of fixing the dismal drafting record (or they are too incompetent to actually do it). With the signing deadline just two days away, they still have 2 of their top 7 picks unsigned. How does not signing your top players improve your team? And it’s not like they’ve spent a ton on the draft either as (depending on what Darnell signed for) everyone of their picks in the first five rounds signed for slot, or in the case of Sawyer Carrol significantly less ($125k vs slot of $305k).
August 13, 2008 at 12:47 pm
#28@Schlom: Players bluff all the time about their signing demands. The Padres would be a horrible drafting team if they just assumed the numbers players pass out were set in stone.
August 13, 2008 at 12:49 pm
#28@Schlom: “Why didn’t the Padres know that he was asking for 1st or 2nd round money?”
He wouldn’t tell them what he was looking for. He changed his mind after he was drafted. He gave them a low number to try and get drafted higher at which point he could raise his number, etc. . .
There are a bunch of different reasons that this could have happened. Why do you immediately jump to the conclusion that the Padres FO is full of idiots based on a situation in which you have absolutely no details?
August 13, 2008 at 12:50 pm
#27@Phantom: Well, not millions. Even at the outside there’s around 2,000 prospects, maybe. But it is hard, even if you take a relatively conservative approach like the Padres.
#28@Schlom: Because he didn’t tell them? Because his agent looked at next year’s class and figures that Kipnis could be a first or second rounder?
You’re acting like they knew for sure what Kipnis was asking for before the draft and didn’t intend to meet it. You don’t have a shred of evidence to support that. Those Cape numbers, by the way, aren’t bad at all. Lots of kids go to the Cape and struggle to hit their weight.
This isn’t like Toledo last year, when the difference was (reportedly) small. Don’t you draw the line someplace? What if he’s asking for 1.4 million, are the Padres failures for not signing him?
They’ll probably fail to sign one kid who has medical issues. That’s the Padres fault if it’s the hip but not their fault if it’s something different. They’ll almost certainly not sign Kipnis, who is asking for way more than they thought he would. Do you really think the Padres would have picked him if they’d known what his asking price was? Why? They don’t get a comp pick for 4th rounders.
August 13, 2008 at 12:52 pm
#28@Schlom: “It makes absolutely no sense to draft someone, especially in the 4th round where there are other players that are just as good, that you don’t really intend to sign.”
You’re right. So why would you assume that the FO would do that? Do you honestly think they don’t intend to sign the guys they draft?
August 13, 2008 at 12:55 pm
Regarding Mooneyham, MadFriars.com (subscriber only) has a good Q & A with Grady Fuson. He basically says that not only is Mooneyham committed to Stanford, but he is asking for top 12 money and from what they observed on their recent scouting trip to see him pitch, he isn’t good enough to be asking for that kind of money.
At least they got Darnell signed and Carroll, Tekotte, and Decker have got some serious talent. I’m feeling really good about the top of this draft, even if Kipinis and Dykstra don’t get signed.
August 13, 2008 at 12:56 pm
#29@Ben B.: Exactly. Look at Darnell, who just signed. He was set on 800K for a long time. We don’t know what he actually got, but it’ll be surprising if the Padres went that high.
The Padres have been cheap in the past. They have been overly committed to slot at times. That doesn’t mean that EVERY time they fail to sign a player, it’s because they’re cheap / idiots.
August 13, 2008 at 12:58 pm
#33@JMAR: I like several of the kids they did sign better than Dykstra. Not that I condone picking him if the hip is what scared them off, but those 3 you listed (plus Forsythe the headfirst slider) are good talents.
August 13, 2008 at 12:59 pm
#31@Tom Waits: I didn’t realize it was that low. I assumed that with more than 300 million people in the country that the number of draft eligible players was likely to be much higher.
August 13, 2008 at 1:11 pm
#35@Tom Waits: Forgot about the headfirst slider. I know the Padres are really high on him and his importance to the depth of the farm system would increase if Kouz is traded in the offseason, although his athleticism might allow him to change positions if he doesn’t develop more power.
The guy that is quickly becoming my favorite player in the entire system is 33rd Round Pick Dan Robertson, who might not end up as a ML starter, but is a sparkplug in the mold of an Eric Owens or Ryan Freel. He’s batting .377 with a .959 OPS and 18 SB’s in 52 games at Eugene.
August 13, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Don’t most teams know basically what players are asking? We hear all the time about players that drop because of salary demands so I assume that it’s no secret.
Also, why would Kipnis keep his bonus demands secret? I don’t think anyone saw him as a first round pick this season so it’s not like anyone would have probably given him $1.5m. He had to know that as soon as he was drafted by the Padres, he wasn’t going to be playing this season. In fact, there are only a few teams that would pay that price. So if he wants to play this season (which I assume that he did since he was in draft) wasn’t it in his best interests to let teams know his bonus demands so he would be drafted by a team that could pay it?
August 13, 2008 at 1:11 pm
#36@Phantom: In raw numbers, if you were looking at all kids of draft age, it would be. But the prospects tend to filter out, starting even before they become teenagers in some cases. In college, a lot of teams will only have one or two prospects. Some college teams won’t have any.
You hardly ever see a kid get picked completely out of nowhere anymore, found on a country farm throwing apples through a tire.
August 13, 2008 at 1:35 pm
#39@Tom Waits: Ahh okay. That makes total sense. So in a way, I guess we’re both right. There are literally millions of kids, but only thousands that actually draw interest.
Still a tough job, either way (as you noted). Although it would be great to get a kid that learned to knuckle an apple.
August 13, 2008 at 1:37 pm
Here’s the Baseball America preview on Kipnis:
Scouts who saw Arizona State early also were impressed by Kentucky transfer Jason Kipnis, who got off to a rousing start, showing surprising power. Most area scouts compare him to former ASU star Colin Curtis as a tweener, though they liked Curtis’ hit tool better. Kipnis’ power falls short due to a bat wrap that will slow him down with wood. He has enough arm and speed to play all three outfield spots and a patient approach at the plate while being aggressive on the basepaths with his average speed. He fits into the sixth- to 10th-round range for most clubs. Kipnis redshirted at Kentucky as a freshman and was kicked off the Wildcats club as a sophomore but has impressed with his work ethic at ASU.
He wasn’t listed among the Top 200 overall prospects. Does that sound like someone worth over $1m to you? Granted, he has some leverage as a 3rd year sophmore but that can’t make that much of a difference. The lowest pick to get a $1m bonus was the 55th pick by the Nationals, Destin Hood (the 54th overall prospect by BA and a high school player).
Since Kipnis wasn’t that highly regarded, the most logical thing about his bonus demands is that he doesn’t want to play for San Diego. Nothing wrong with that (I wouldn’t go here as a batter either) but it’s something the Padres should have known. All they had to do was ask him and there would be absolutely no reason for him to lie so they might not have even asked such a simple question.
August 13, 2008 at 1:45 pm
#38@Schlom: Most teams know exactly what the players / their people tell them. Which could be nothing. Or it could be a lie. The teams have no way of knowing how honest or forthcoming a guy is.
You are making some pretty bold assumptions regarding Kipnis. First, you are assuming that he entered the draft because he wanted to play. Maybe he wanted to see where he was drafted this year to gauge his prospects for next year. Maybe he wanted to take a shot that someone would jump and pay him ridiculous money so that they didn’t lose him. Maybe he just thought it would be fun to enter the draft this year even though he had no intention of leaving school. Maybe he wanted to impress some ladies with “hey, I got drafted and some team offered me $x but I turned them down. . .” Maybe his parents forced him to enter the draft. Maybe his coach wanted him to enter the draft so that he could get feedback from scouts on what he needed to work on.
Some of these scenarios make it more likely that Kipnis would keep his bonus demands a secret. If he really wanted to return to school but wanted to see where he was drafted THIS year, why would he be honest?
August 13, 2008 at 1:47 pm
#25@Schlom: “The more likely explanation is that the Padres front office has no idea what they are doing in the draft.”
Yeah, that’s much more likely. Alderson, DePodesta and Towers, not to mention Fuson, those guys are idiots, complete bumbling fools with no idea whatsoever about drafting.
Ouch! I just put a hole in my cheek with my tongue!!
August 13, 2008 at 1:48 pm
#41@Schlom: “Since Kipnis wasn’t that highly regarded, the most logical thing about his bonus demands is that he doesn’t want to play for San Diego.”
“All they had to do was ask him and there would be absolutely no reason for him to lie so they might not have even asked such a simple question.”
Hopefully you don’t really believe these leaps of faith.
August 13, 2008 at 1:49 pm
#39@Tom Waits: Those were the days…
August 13, 2008 at 2:02 pm
#43@Pat: Start on this page:
http://www.baseball-reference......ype=junreg
Then go back from year to year. Do you notice anything about those drafts?
August 13, 2008 at 2:02 pm
#41@Schlom: That’s a beginning of the year scouting report from one source. There are dozens of better conclusions to reach from that than “he doesn’t want to sign with the Padres.” Here’s a few of them: His stock was much higher at the time of the draft than at the time of the scouting report. He has an inflated view of his own value. He really likes the college experience. He thinks he’s going to have another monster year next year and get drafted in the first round. He thinks the Padres will cave to his demands.
August 13, 2008 at 2:08 pm
#41@Schlom:
The word “logical” is tired of you using it wrong.
Kipnis is a sophomore. If he’s confident he can get stronger, and his adviser (if he has one) has looked deeply at next year’s class, he could easily see himself as a first or second round talent. Baseball players don’t typically lack confidence.
So you think that a kid who scouts saw as a 6th to 10th round pick (where the money is tens, not hundreds, of thousands) is so worried about playing in San Diego four years from now that he turns down something like 300,000? Please. That’s he so worried about what his offensive stats would look like 8 or 10 years from now, AFTER he earns free agency, IF he makes the big leagues, that’s he’d pass up an offer that’s 150K more than most scouts thought he was worth?
Scouts ALWAYS check with prospects to get as much a feel as they can for signing demands. That’s why nobody drafted Mooneyham. It’s why we popped Decker, because he was amenable to slot. Sometimes the kid lays his cards on the table. Sometimes he keeps them close to his vest.
Why would Kipnis tell them he wanted 800K? As soon as the Padres picked him, the team has an interest in getting him signed, and he can try to leverage that for all its worth. Which is all well and good, by the way, I’m all in favor of these kids playing hardball.
August 13, 2008 at 2:15 pm
I think it’s safe to assume that Kipnis has an agent (or an advisor as the NCAA like to call it). Most likely the Padres have dealt with his advisor and will do so again. Does it make sense for that advisor to essentially burn his bridges with the Padres for one player? Because if Kipnis is really asking for around $1m (which is slot for about the 35th overall pick) I’d be pretty damn angry if I were the Padres since he was drafted 100 picks later.
Again, why would he keep his bonus demands secret? What does he have to gain from that? He has to know that he’s not getting $1m from any team but maybe the Yankees since he’s just not that highly regarded. I fully understand the Padres not signing him in that sense, I just find it hard to believe that they had no idea that these demands were coming.
August 13, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Just so everyone knows, you don’t “enter” the baseball draft. You don’t fill out paperwork or anything. If you’re eligible, a team can pick you. The Padres, a few years ago, drafted some track star out of…..the northwest, maybe? Guy who hadn’t played ball since high school, if he did then. Kipnis was eligible because of his birthday and college status.
#47@Ben B.: Those are all better explanations than Kipnis turning down app. 300,000 dollars because he doesn’t want Petco Park to steal 5 home runs a year from him, 3 to 5 years from now when he’s through the minor leagues.
The Padres took a chance on an athletically talented kid, which Schlom (and I, to be honest) have been begging them to do. They popped him well before most teams saw him going. He sees himself as even better than that. They took a chance. It didn’t work out. Kipnis is much less of an issue than Dykstra, and Dykstra’s really only an issue if the Padres are scared of his hip, because that suggests a lack of due diligence.
August 13, 2008 at 2:26 pm
#49@Schlom: Lots of players have kept their draft demands secret. Partly because it’s against MLB rules to talk about contract details before the draft, partly because they want to preserve as much leverage as they can. They’d love to be drafted by a team that feels so compelled not to “waste” a pick that they’ll accede to the kid’s demands.
You really don’t understand how agents or teams view negotiations if you think this would burn any bridges. If every team that ever had a negotiation go sour with an agent then cut that agent off, no baseball team would be able to deal with any agent. There’d be no free agent signings, no draft signings, nothing. The only solution would be for a new crop of agents to come in every year along with the draftees.
“just find it hard to believe that they had no idea that these demands were coming.”
That’s basically a complete contradiction of your earlier claim, that the Padres were just idiots: “All they had to do was ask him and there would be absolutely no reason for him to lie so they might not have even asked such a simple question.”
August 13, 2008 at 3:20 pm
Caught the end of the Sandy Alderson report on 1090 radio.
He says they knew Dykstra had a hip injury when they drafted him but not to the extent of what they know now. When asked if they would’ve drafted him if they had that info before the draft, he said they wouldn’t, at least not in the 1st round.
He touched on the Giles situation briefly. Basically, he still thinks Giles is still the type of player they want in the organization, but Giles is getting up in age and towards the end of his contract. Therefore, a trade could’ve benefited Giles and the Padres, in that they might’ve been able to get some good players in return and would’ve gained financial flexibility going into the offseason. He says their moving forward at this point and will decide on whether to pick up his option once the season is over.
August 13, 2008 at 3:34 pm
#51@Tom Waits: But he was asking for a huge amount of money — more money then anyone except himself thought he was worth. I don’t think you’d find anyone that thinks that he’s a top 50 talent, yet he wanted to get paid like a late first round/supplemental draft pick. Other then the first 10 picks (and the high school players with strong college commitments) he’s asking for the most amount of money, or least the highest percentage over slot. Doesn’t that strike you as a bit odd? Personally I find it a bit far-fetched that the Padres had no idea that he was asking for an amount so out of whack with his draft position.
However, let’s assume that it’s true. Then isn’t Kipnis pulling a Matt Harrington situation here? He’s not worth anything close to what he is asking and so he’s only going to hurt himself in the long run. Unless he ends up a top 10 talent next season who is going to take the chance of drafting him? If he thinks he’s worth $1m as the 135th pick, what is going to think he’s worth as the 30th pick? But with his skills, there isn’t much chance he’s going to go really high as he doesn’t do anything that outstanding (not great power, not great speed).
August 13, 2008 at 3:45 pm
Unfortunately I had a longer post that was eaten.
Basically what worries me most about this whole situation is that I fear that it’s a reprisal of the Grant Green/Christian Colon debacles of past drafts. Instead of paying a few extra hundred thousand dollars on draftees (less then 1% of the major league budget) they let them go to college instead. Now maybe Kipnis won’t compromise and lower his budget demands. But if he does, does it make sense to let a good player (obviously the Padres think so otherwise they wouldn’t have drafted him so high) walk over a $200k? For all this talk about rebuilding the farm system, we haven’t really seen it — or at least them spending money to procure talent.
August 13, 2008 at 3:54 pm
DePo announces a waiver claim …
http://itmightbedangerous.blog.....claim.html
Today we claimed RHP Brian Falkenborg on waivers from the Dodgers.
August 13, 2008 at 3:59 pm
#54@Schlom: “For all this talk about rebuilding the farm system, we haven’t really seen it — or at least them spending money to procure talent.”
Didn’t we just spend a record amount in international signings?
August 13, 2008 at 4:04 pm
MadFriars report this good news during a Q&A with Grady Fuson …
How have Matt Bush and Nick Schmidt advanced in their injury rehabs?
Grady Fuson: Schmidt has been very, very good. Bush is good. There haven’t been any setbacks. We expect them both to be live and ready to go in the Instructional League.
August 13, 2008 at 4:14 pm
A comment on Kyle Blanks. He is quickly running out of room in the Padres system. If he has a solid season in Portland next year, is he gone? or ?
August 13, 2008 at 4:16 pm
#56@BigWorm: Yes, but what does that have to do with the draft? Unless the Padres have an either/or proposition with them, which is the thing I’m complaining about.
The main reason the Padres have been one of the worst franchises since they debuted is their horrible drafting. Even the great run of the past four season largely came to nothing because of more poor drafting. I’m sure everyone in the front office realizes that. So it probably doesn’t make a lot of sense to pinch pennies now, especially if it’s just over a few hundred thousand dollars (money that was saved by drafting Sawyer Carroll).
August 13, 2008 at 4:18 pm
#59@Schlom: Good thing we saved that money and went with Carroll because he tore up Eugene and moved up to Ft. Wayne
August 13, 2008 at 4:20 pm
#55@LynchMob: So when do they start to take a look at some of the younger players? They must really not like Dirk Hayhurst for some reason. Why not throw Hayhurst, Edwin Moreno, Chad Reineke or Josh Geer in the bullpen to see what they can do for the rest of the season and if they really love Falkenborg, Corey, or Tomko, I’m pretty sure they can sign them to a minor league deal in the offseason? No offense to those guys but why does this team have any use for a mediocre journeyman at this point of the season? They need to start finding out what they have down in Portland.
August 13, 2008 at 4:30 pm
#61@JMAR: Arent most of our guys in Portland just kind of mediocre anyway?
August 13, 2008 at 4:33 pm
#53@Schlom: Seriously, you’re not making ANY sense. First it was the Padres failed to ask a question to find out what he wanted. Now the Padres knew what he wanted, knew it was a lot, and drafted him anyway.
Whatever happens with Kipnis next year has no bearing on why the Padres drafted him this year. What does it matter if he blows out a knee and gets popped in the 12th round? That’s on him. He held firm on his price, the Padres held firm on their offer, the two sides part.
#54@Schlom: Green and Colon were considered first or second round talents, not 6th - 10th. Huge difference. You might also look at in percentages. Colon and Green were looking for a 25-50% increase in the offer. Kipnis was asking for about 4x.
August 13, 2008 at 4:35 pm
#62@SDSUBaseball: Reineke has been solid as a starter since his acquisition and the scouting reports have him as a reliever, so it would be good to see what he can do.
Geer has been average as a starter but he has sort of a funky delivery so I’d like to see what he could do out of the bullpen.
Moreno was the only Beaver in the PCL All-Star game and he throws in the mid 90’s.
Hayhurst has had a very solid year with a very good BB/K/IP ratio and is durable and can eat up innings. He also seems like he would be a great clubhouse guy, even if he is nothing more than a middle reliever.
Plus, these guys are all under 30 so I’d rather see what they can do rather than see guys who have already had a lot of years under their belt and proved to be nothing more than medicore.
August 13, 2008 at 4:39 pm
#55@LynchMob: I’m trying to get even a little excited about that and failing.
August 13, 2008 at 4:48 pm
#60@SDSUBaseball: I didn’t say that was a bad pick, just that he signed significantly under slot. Nothing wrong with that — the Padres best hitter was a signability pick. But if they saved $200k there they should be able to spend that somewhere else (although I’m not sure that applies to the Dykstra pick since they get an extra one next season).
The reason I question the Padres FO is that they have been absolutely horrible at the amateur draft. In fact, as I’ve said before, it’s absolutely unbelievable that they’ve managed to be really good the past four season despite throwing away the 9th pick in 2000, the 14th in 2001, the 4th pick in 2003, the 1st pick in 2004, and quite possibly their first picks in 2005, 2007 and 2008. All those players (except for those drafted the past few seasons) should be major contributors of their team and instead they’ve got nothing. In fact it might be unprecedented (I don’t see another team winning with a low payroll and no home-grown players).