Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

Unloading junk again. Baseball follows the lists.

Sites

• Franchise Location and Relocation Under the Major League Rules — Doug Pappas helps sort this one out over at Baseball Prospectus
• saintaardvarkthecarpeted.com — I have no idea what this is, but it’s pretty entertaining if you’re in the right frame of mind

Books

• Pat Pattison, Writing Better Lyrics. Hands-on, with plenty of exercises. Probably better in a group setting.
• Stephen Citron, Songwriting. Similar in scope to Jimmy Webb’s Tunesmith but not quite as inspired. Still a good read for anyone interested in creating songs or understanding the craft behind the art.
• Carl Sandburg, Selected Poems (edited by George and Willene Hendrick; no, not that George Hendrick). Current fave is Soiled Dove.
• Cole Porter, Complete Lyrics of Cole Porter (edited by Robert Kimball). Includes songs from his days at Yale and those for which no music survives. Good source of inspiration.
• Arthur Taylor, Notes and Tones. Interviews from 1969-71 of top jazz musicians by a top jazz musician. Interesting is the reaction of black artists to the Beatles at that time.

Tunes

• Bjork, Post
• Bill Frisell, Is That You?
• Rush, Vapor Trails
• Nickel Creek, This Side

Mark W. Davis and the HOF

Yep, my second article is up at Baseball Primer. It applies the Keltner list to Davis’ career in an attempt to determine the likelihood of his entering the Hall of Fame. The short version is, there is no chance in hell. And to those who think that trying to apply the Keltner list to a guy like Davis is pointless, it’s not. First, it gives us a chance to re-examine a player who had a pretty substantial career. There’s always value in that. Second, and more importantly, it serves as a test of the system itself. The Keltner list says that Davis absolutely doesn’t belong in the HOF. Given what we know about Davis and the HOF, this matches our expectations. So in this case, the Keltner list has been validated.

Enough philosophy. Go read the article and remember a guy who had two great seasons in a Padre uniform surrounded by years of mediocrity. Try it, you’ll like it.

Jeremy Fikac to A’s

Pads traded RHP Jeremy Fikac to the A’s for the ubiquitous PTBNL. While researching some possibilities of who that might turn out to be (rumor has it that it’s going to be the ever-popular "cash"), I stumbled across this line:

 AB  H 2B 3B HR BB  SO  BA OBP SLG
404 85 14  1 31 57 195 210 324 480

Kid’s name is George Soto, and he’s a catcher. I don’t know whether he’ll ever amount to anything but that is one of the most interesting stat lines I’ve seen since Rob Deer was playing.

Sickels 1996 and Win Shares

And now back to our regularly scheduled obssession. Today’s installment: (cue dramatic music) the minor-league years.

Minor-League Stats

Let’s a look at the average minor-league stat lines (through 1995) for each of the different grades assigned by Sickels. To save space, I’ve only included rate stats here (full stats are also available).

hitters

Grd   BA  OBP  SLG BB/PA K/PA BB/K  ISO XB/H
 A  .294 .369 .470  .106 .177 .601 .177 .341
 A- .288 .357 .454  .096 .146 .661 .166 .329
 B+ .290 .363 .439  .102 .157 .650 .149 .308
 B  .281 .355 .429  .102 .160 .635 .147 .308
 B- .277 .346 .415  .094 .158 .596 .138 .303
 C+ .276 .351 .422  .104 .166 .625 .146 .318
 C  .273 .348 .406  .103 .166 .616 .133 .296
 C- .271 .340 .390  .094 .161 .587 .119 .273
tot .277 .349 .415  .100 .162 .614 .138 .300

Note. PA is AB + BB.

Prospects in the Grade A group hit an unusually large number of triples. This is due primarily to Bob Abreu (50 triples, 1952 at-bats) and Johnny Damon (44, 1599). They also had the highest batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. They walked a little more than average, and struck out a lot more.

pitchers

Grd  ERA  H/9 HR/9 BB/9  K/9 K/BB
 A  3.14 7.80 0.56 3.50 9.10 2.60
 A- 2.63 7.11 0.56 2.93 8.51 2.90
 B+ 3.22 7.67 0.51 3.57 8.10 2.27
 B  3.33 8.01 0.54 3.06 7.86 2.57
 B- 3.43 8.10 0.60 3.42 7.63 2.23
 C+ 3.56 8.17 0.56 3.73 7.79 2.09
 C  3.58 8.47 0.59 3.34 7.19 2.15
 C- 3.83 8.60 0.61 3.63 7.10 1.96
tot 3.55 8.27 0.58 3.48 7.51 2.16

Members of the A- group had the best ERA, were hardest to hit, and allowed the fewest walks. The Grade A group struck out the most batters. Generally speaking, the pitchers with the higher grades were harder to hit and struck out more batters than those with lower grades. Interestingly, there was very little difference from top to bottom in terms of home run rates.

On Monday, we’ll see how these guys have done in the big leagues…

I’m going to have to do something about those increasingly unwieldy archives links at the bottom of the page. When I put the original system in place, it was with the assumption that I’d quickly tire of blogging (or, more accurately, that other people would quickly tire of my blogging). But interestingly, that hasn’t happened. I go through periods of more or less enthusiasm and energy — not to mention useful things to say — but I always come back for more. What it really comes down to is the fact that I just can’t get enough baseball.

Happy New Year

Good gig to ring in the New Year. We were a pitcher struggling with command early, fighting our instruments, our songs, ourselves. But we battled back and finished strong. High point for me came just before midnight. We had about five minutes to kill before the ball dropped (well, before we saw the replay of its being dropped): not enough time for a song, but too much time to just stand around and look like idiots. So our bass player starts thumping out "Louie Louie." Don, our drummer, kicks in, and I look over at Billy on bass; he tells me what key he’s in and I start playing along. Three of us sing in the band, and we all kind of look at each other. Nobody knows the words. I step up to the mike, figuring I can just keep repeating the two lines I know for a couple minutes. After a while, Don picks up the verses and I leave it to him. Next thing I know, the dance floor is full. That was awesome.

Folks, if you’re ever out seeing your favorite local band and they’re scuffling a bit, give ‘em some energy. It works wonders.

Anyway, we had a great New Year’s. Hope you did, too.

Housekeeping

Starting today, I’ll be including a little e-mail link at the bottom of each installment. This should make it more convenient for you to contact me. I’m hoping to turn it into a form at some point; I’ve played around with some, but I haven’t been able to resolve some security issues so who knows when that will happen. Meantime, let me know what you think!

Prospects, Prospects, Prospects

Awright, as promised, January is prospect month here at Ducksnorts. So let’s get the ball rolling. We’ll kick things off by revisiting prospects from John Sickels’ 1996 book and win shares.

What follows is a continuation of some findings presented on September 16 and November 26. This is turning into an ongoing project of sorts. If you’d like to see the data set, or if you have any ideas on what other questions might be worth asking, let me know.

And now, let’s jump in and see what we find.

Win Shares (1996-2001)

This shows how many win shares were earned by players in each grade group during years 1996-2001. For those not familiar with Sickels’ work, he grades each prospect on a scale from A to C-. The lists that follow give the number of players in each group, the total number of win shares garnered by players in each group, and the average number of win shares per player in each group. We’ll look at all players, pitchers only, and hitters only.

total

No   Grd    WS  WS/player
12    A    794  66.17
14    A-   642  45.86
32    B+   964  30.13
59    B    939  15.92
76    B-  1026  13.50
95    C+   934   9.83
129   C   1133   8.78
98    C-   642   6.55
515  tot  7074  13.74

No real surprises here. Pretty much a linear progression; the most highly regarded prospects earned the most win shares, and so on down the line.

hitters

No   Grd    WS  WS/player
8     A    651  81.38
11    A-   571  51.91
20    B+   609  30.45
38    B    705  18.55
38    B-   759  19.97
46    C+   588  12.78
70    C    668   9.54
55    C-   492   8.95
286  tot  5043  17.63

An oddity here is that the Grade B- group did slightly better than the Grade B group, with exactly the same number of players in each group.

pitchers

No   Grd    WS  WS/player
4     A    143  35.75
3     A-    71  23.67
12    B+   355  29.58
21    B    234  11.14
38    B-   267   7.03
49    C+   346   7.06
59    C    465   7.88
43    C-   150   3.49
229  tot  2031   8.87

The B+ group did significantly better than the A- group. The A- group (Alan Benes, Rocky Coppinger, Jeff Suppan) turned out to be pretty weak, whereas the B+ group comprised three (Chan Ho Park, #1; Bartolo Colon, #3; Ugueth Urbina, #4) of the top four pitchers in terms of win shares.

There were small fluctuations among the B-, C+, and C groups but nothing too startling.

To summarize:

• overall the more highly regarded prospects turned into the more successful players
• there was greater fluctuation among pitchers than among hitters

This isn’t earth-shattering, but it does confirm some suspsicions.

Tomorrow: the prospects’ minor league stats…

Hope those of y’all who celebrate Christmas had a great one. We did, thanks.

The Padres signed a few more veterans this week, catcher Gary Bennett, right-hander Jay Witasick, and outfielder Roberto Kelly.

Bennett doesn’t hit much but has the reputation of being a good handler of pitchers. He, Wiki Gonzalez, and Mike Rivera will be fighting for two jobs. Bennett has the glove, Gonzalez the arm, and Rivera the bat. Gonzalez also has the big contract. This is a competition to watch closely in Peoria. Personally, I have a feeling that Bennett and Rivera will end up splitting time (Bennett working with the kids, Rivera more with the veterans), and Gonzalez will be shipped off somewhere to clear more payroll. We’ll see.

As for Witasick, he absolutely dominated in his first go-round as a reliever for the Padres before being dealt to the Yankees for D’Angelo Jimenez. Although that trade didn’t work out as well as planned, it was still an excellent use of a reliever by a non-contender. Meantime, his second straight World Series debacle notwithstanding, Witasick had another solid season as a member of the Giants. He’s a low-risk signing, he doesn’t cost much, he gives the Padres another option in the late innings (and could close some games early if Trevor Hoffman isn’t ready to go come April), and he could be handy down the stretch if the Padres are in contention or could land more prospects if they aren’t. What’s not to like?

Just for grins, here’s Witasick’s line since being moved full-time to the bullpen:

   IP   H ER HR BB  SO  ERA
148.1 136 47 11 54 160 2.85

I’ve seen worse…

Kelly? As with Brady Anderson, this signing makes very little sense to me. Kelly last played in the big leagues in 2000, when he had 25 at-bats with the Yankees. Arguably his best season came in 1998, when he hit .323/.349/.560 for the Rangers in 257 at-bats. Oh, and Kelly is 39 years old. I really can’t even comment intelligently on this move because frankly I have no idea why the Padres would make it. Personally, I’d rather have Orlando Palmeiro and Chris Stynes than the likes of Anderson and Kelly. If Kelly contributes anything to the Padres in 2003, it will be nothing less than a miracle.

Charles Nagy? He hasn’t been truly productive since 1997. At this point he’s an older, more injury-prone version of Brian Meadows. I don’t see a lot of upside here but I guess the theory is that if you throw enough pitchers up against the wall, some of ‘em will stick.

Like Jesse Orosco, Nagy makes his off-season home in the San Diego area. He turns 36 on, hey, my birthday. Nagy’s best season came in 1996, when he went 17-5, with a 3.41 ERA and 167 strikeouts in 222 innings. Since then, he’s been one of the most hittable pitchers in all of baseball (815.1 IP, 990 H, 5.42 ERA). Nagy might be more done than Brady Anderson. We’ll see.

On the other hand, I feel a little (not much) better about Luther Hackman now that the Braves have given away Kevin Millwood for Johnny Estrada. At least the Padres didn’t hand someone in their own division a legitimate #2 starter for a backup catcher. Ouch.

Rule 5 Revisited

We’ve already talked about Buddy Hernandez (since traded to Oakland) and Shane Victorino. But what about the guys taken in the minor-league phase of the draft? Most of them don’t reach the big leagues (although the Padres’ own Wiki Gonzalez is one who did) and do little more than provide organizational depth.

With that in mind, here’s a quick look at how the Padres were affected. In the Triple-A phase, the Pads snagged Pittsburgh’s Rico Washington, Detroit’s Virgilio De Leon, and Toronto’s Aaron Dean. They lost Junior Herndon and Jeremy Owens, both to Boston.

I had the opportunity to see Washington a few years back in the now-defunct California Fall League. He’s short and a little pudgy, but he can play just about anywhere and has a plan at the plate. He reminded me a bit of Lenny Harris at the time. Although Washington hit just .223 in the Eastern League last year, he showed good plate discipline, as he has throughout his career. He played mostly third base at Altoona, but he also has experience at second base and behind the plate. Washington, 25, could eventually make it to the bigs as a left-handed bat off the bench.

I don’t know much about De Leon other than this: He’s 6-2, 170 lbs; he’ll be 23 next year; he’s an outfielder who played only 18 of 42 games in the field last season; and he hit just .223/.268/.344 at Oneonta in the short-season New York Penn League, with 8 walks against 52 strikeouts. He’s old and he doesn’t appear to have good baseball skills.

My information on Dean is equally sketchy. He’s 6-4, 180 lbs; he throws right-handed; he’ll be 24 next year; and he struggled mightily (99.2 IP, 118 H, 44 BB, 82 SO, 5.42 ERA) in the pitcher-friendly Florida State League. Like De Leon, Dean is an extreme longshot to reach the Show.

As for the guys the Pads lost, they’re both former marginal prospects who haven’t developed. I always kind of liked Herndon, mainly because he managed to succeed without great stuff despite being one of the younger pitchers in his league. Unfortunately, this is what he did in the PCL last year:

   IP ERA   H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9
159.0 5.26 9.74 2.94 3.34 1.58

Pitchers who can’t strike out four batters a game at Triple-A generally don’t have much in the way of big-league careers.

Owens is a kid who can pretty much do it all except make contact. Unfortunately, his one big weakness has been enough to keep him from making any progress as a player. He struck out in 32% of his plate appearances at Elsinore in 2002 as a 25-year-old. He’s a destitute man’s Ruben Rivera.

Of all the players mentioned above, Washington is the only one even remotely likely to create a stir at the big-league level. And even he’s a bit of a longshot.

And In the End

This is my last post before Christmas, so I’d just like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas. Eat well, enjoy time with your family, and remember that spring training is just around the corner.

Peace…

Okay, so evidently the Padres weren’t done.

The Moves

• Padres trade RHP Buddy Hernandez (taken earlier in the Rule 5 draft) to Oakland for IF Jose Flores. He’s a little old and has no big-league experience, but Flores is probably a better player than Deivi Cruz. He’ll compete with Chris Sexton and Homer Bush for the backup middle infield spot. Hernandez was an intriguing player but probably not as useful as an infielder who doesn’t have to spend the entire season on the big-league roster. This was a clever little piece of roster maneuvering on the part of the Padres. Sure is nice to have some veteran middle infielders on the roster just in case.
• Padres trade UT Cesar Crespo to Boston for SS Luis Cruz. Crispy Crespo never really got a chance with the Padres, and with the acquistion of guys like Sexton, Bush, and Flores (and even Brady Anderson and Shane Victorino), that wasn’t likely to change. So they sent him to San Diego East in exchange for a kid shortstop with upside. Why not? If you’re not gonna use the guy, get someone who might help in a few years.
• Padres sign IF Mark Loretta to a 1-year deal. As you probably know by now, I absolutely love this move. Loretta can play anywhere on the infield and is a terrific hitter (.293/.359/.390 for his career). Probably my favorite thing about this move (well, aside from the fact that Royce Clayton will not be playing the part of Deivi Cruz in 2003) is that it moves Ramon Vazquez back to shortstop, where he belongs.

Here’s what Baseball America has to say about the Pads’ moves:

• Red Sox keep dealing, add Crespo
• Cardinals bolster rotation with Tomko

And, closer to home, here’s the NC Times’ coverage: Loretta fills Padres’ second-base job. Gotta like the comparison of Victorino to the recently departed Eugene Kingsale. Replaceable talent. Learn that phrase; it’s the baseball buzzword of the new millenium…

Hope you had a good weekend. Maybe you found the Sean Burroughs rumors as amusing as I did.

Time for a little catch-up.

AFL Prospects

Baseball America has released its Top 20 AFL prospects. The Padres aren’t well represented, with only Tagg Bozied checking in at #20. They also have two representatives on the "best tools" list: Mike Bynum (#3 LHP prospect), Rusty Tucker (#2 bullpen prospect). The main complaints with Bozied are his long swing and his inability to lay off pitches down and away.

Trades

I won’t comment at length on the trades not involving the Padres (although I will say I think the A’s and Red Sox did very well for themselves, and the Reds made out pretty well, too; obviously the Devil Rays screwed themselves again). But I will talk about the Brett Tomko giveaway. Tomko, as you probably know by now, was traded to the Cardinals for Luther Hackman and a PTBNL.

My first thought was that Hackman would be the Heathcliff Slocumb of this deal, with the PTBNL being a prospect along the lines of Ben Johnson, whom the Pads acquired along with Slocumb from the Cards a few years back in a deal for catcher Carlos Hernandez. So I started wondering who the PTBNL might be.

RHP Jimmy Journell probably was out of the question. Although some clubs might not have problem dealing their top prospect for an arbitration-eligible back-end rotation guy, the Cardinals didn’t strike me as being one of them. That left me hoping for guys like RHP Justin Pope, RHP Dan Haren, or 2B/OF Shaun Boyd. The name I was really hoping to see this morning was Pope’s.

But, according to Baseball America the PTBNL is, in fact, RHP Mike Wodnicki. Needless to say, this isn’t what I was expecting. I’ll give Kevin Towers the benefit of the doubt for the moment, but I’m a little worried about this one. I don’t know much about Wodnicki, but I do know that he doesn’t show up among the Cardinals’ Top 30 prospects of a year ago.

Perhaps more troubling is the fact that the Padres didn’t get a middle infielder in the deal. Not that the Cardinals were the best team to supply one, but a few weeks ago we were speculating that Tomko might land Marcus Giles or Felipe Lopez. But instead he ends up with a middle reliever and a relatively obscure prospect. Meanwhile, the Reds pick up Lopez for Elmer Dessens.

I hope it all works out and one of Hackman or Wodnicki turns out to be useful. But this is disappointing. Regardless of Tomko’s status, the Padres were dealing from a position of relative strength and should have been able to get more. On the bright side, Towers did get something for him and now nobody has to think about what to do with Tomko anymore.

Shameless Plug

My first article for Baseball Primer is up: Steady Eddie, The Kid, Ryno, and The Rest: Sid Fernandez. Check it out when you have a moment. I’ve got another one of these coming out in the next couple weeks. I won’t tell you who the other one is about, but the guy makes Fernandez look like Warren Spahn.

Rule 5 Draft

Padres grabbed two players in the Major League Phase: RHP Buddy Hernandez (Braves) and OF Shane Victorino (Dodgers). Hernandez is interesting. He’s a reliever who racked up a ton of strikeouts in the Southern League this season and did the same in the AFL. I don’t know much about him, but his numbers indicate that he might be able to succeed in the big leagues right now. As for Victorino, let’s hope this isn’t the cheap alternative to Orlando Palmeiro. I’m not real excited about either of these guys, although Hernandez could be useful.

Middle Infield Situation

Deivi Cruz signed with the Orioles. I’ve given up on mocking Cruz; it’s like mocking William Shatner. What’s the point?

Anyway, the important thing is that he’s no longer the Padres’ problem. Still no sign(ing) of Mark Loretta. It’d be nice to get that wrapped up soon.

Okay, enough for one day. Go take a look at the Fernandez article over at Baseball Primer; lemme know what you think. Talk to ya later…