Blogging the San Diego Padres… established 1997

First off, props to the folks over at Fanstop. Much of what I write in this space is inspired, directly or otherwise, by what goes on there.

Free-Agent Signings

Okay, as promised, I’ll share my thoughts on yesterday’s signings. Carlton Loewer, as you may know, came over from Philly in the Andy Ashby/Adam Eaton deal. He’s been injured pretty much his entire Padre career, but he’s going to give it another shot and has signed a minor-league contract with the club. There’s virtually no risk here and considerable upside. Loewer once was viewed as a potential #2 or #3 starter in the bigs. While that may never happen, if healthy, he’s another power arm in the system.

Dave Hansen is a Dave Magadan clone. He works the count and drives balls in the gaps. I absolutely love this signing. Like John VanderWal and Mark Sweeney, Hansen is a guy who probably deserved a shot as a regular earlier in his career. It never happened and he became a great pinch-hitter. He’s got a chance to make an impact on this ball club, both at the plate and in setting an example for some of the younger hitters. Great, great signing.

Finally, Jaret Wright. A SoCal native returns home. Kevin Towers has serious intentions with Wright, who is expected to serve as a setup man for Trevor Hoffman. Both the Hansen (2 yrs, $1.3M) and Wright (1 yr, $725K) signings are big-league deals, which means a couple of spots will need to be cleared on the 40-man roster. When you consider that guys like Kevin Eberwein, Kory DeHaan, and Donaldo Mendez are on the 40-man, that shouldn’t be a problem.

Here’s more on the signings, as well as the happy news that Royce Clayton apparently has rejected the Padres overtures, thus clearing the way for the superior option of Mark Loretta (which also would allow Ramon Vazquez to stay at shortstop): Wright arrives as insurance for Hoffman. Keep the faith, mis amigos.

Pete Rose

I don’t want to get into this one too much, because it’s such a politically charged issue, but rumor is that Pete Rose may have his lifetime ban from MLB lifted (without dying). All I have to say right now is that if Bud Selig allows this to happen, he’s more evil than I ever could have imagined. Oh, and according to an ESPN.com poll, 65% of fans want to see Rose reinstated. Sigh.

I don’t know if I’ll make good on my threat to stop following MLB if Rose is ever reinstated, but I’m pretty sure I’ll take it a lot less seriously than I do now.

More Pleasant Matters

In other news, I’m happy to announce that I’ve joined the Baseball Primer staff. They do great work over there, and it’s an honor to be a part of the team. My first articles are about a couple of left-handed pitchers who are on this year’s HOF ballot and should appear later this month. That’s all I’m gonna say; you’ll have to read the articles to find out who they are. Guesses will be neither confirmed nor denied (although I’m open to bribery).

Oh, and in case you’re wondering, my addition to the Baseball Primer staff will not affect the output here at Ducksnorts. I’ll still be blogging away over here.

The Ubiquitous "Other Stuff"

• No lobbying in the lobby (Padres.com)
• Pro Sports Daily: MLB Rumors
• 20GameLosers.com

Later…

Learning the Commodores’ "Brick House." Translating those horn parts to guitar is proving to be a bit of a challenge. Of course, my complete and utter lack of funkiness isn’t helping matters.

But enough about me, let’s talk baseball.

Stadium Webcam

First off, my buddy Jeff found a sweet live webcam of the new downtown stadium. I’ve added it to the the new downtown San Diego stadium page so you can keep your eye on the ballpark.

Brady Anderson

Brady Anderson? Well, it’s a low-risk move I guess; he only received a minor-league contract. What concerns me is that because he can still play center field at least occasionally, the Padres may no longer be interested in Orlando Palmeiro. Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t the kind of decision that cripples a ball club. But it is a bit of a head-scratcher.

I must admit, the Padres’ moves during the off-season have been a bit puzzling to this observer. To recap, they have signed the following players:

• Jesse Orosco, a 46-year-old left-hander who will work 30-40 innings; his contract includes a no-trade clause.
• Francisco Cordova, a 31-year-old right-hander who hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since mid-2000 due to injury.
• Chris Sexton, a 31-year-old utility infielder who has played 70 big-league games over parts of two seasons.
• Brady Anderson, a 39-year-old outfielder who is running on fumes at this stage in his career.

Not exactly what one might expect from a team that is rebuilding for the future. But I suppose they don’t add much to the payroll.

[Late note: The Padres have just signed RHP Carlton Loewer, RHP Jaret Wright, and 3B Dave Hansen. More on those tomorrow.]

Middle Infield Help?

Other musings among the Padre faithful include talk of shoring up the middle infield. Not exactly man bites dog but there it is. Our lust for the likes of Marcus Giles and Felipe Lopez has been well documented, and I’ve mentioned Chris Stynes in passing.

Now meet the latest object of our desire: Carlos Febles. A great player? No. A good one? That’s a stretch. A chance to be above-average at his position if he stays healthy? Sure, I’ll go with that.

The dreamers among us are hoping to land Edgardo Alfonzo or Jose Vidro. I don’t know what I’ll do if either of those guys ends up in San Diego, but I’m sure it’ll require an extra helping of bleach to remove.

Meantime, folks are still complaining to the U-T about the Padres’ trading of future Hall-of-Famer Eugene Kingsale. Sometimes I wonder if we deserve a big-league baseball team…

2003 Hall of Fame Ballot

Aaron Gleeman has done a nice analysis of players on the 2003 Hall of Fame ballot. I have intellectual issues with the HOF, but having been to Cooperstown once many years ago (late summer of ’88; Yellowstone was on fire, and the Republican National Convention was being held in New Orleans so we had to stay in a town on the other side of the lake called Slidell–but that’s a story for another day) on a gut level I appreciate it. It’s far from perfect. But as a shrine for baseball fans, the HOF is pretty darned cool.

This year’s HOF ballot is interesting to me because all of the guys on it were either in mid-career or just getting started back when I was first getting seriously into baseball. Vince Coleman burst onto the scene right at the same time as Rotisserie Baseball, which gave equal value to stolen bases and home runs. Thus for many years I had a distorted view of Coleman’s value to a ball club. Probably his most impressive feat came in 1986, when he stole 107 bases despite having an OPS below 600.

I could probably talk at great length about most of the guys on this year’s ballot but instead I’ll leave that to Aaron. As always, he’s done good work here. Much as I might like to, I can’t really argue with anything he says. Check it out when you have a moment. And tell Aaron I say hey.

Okay, with luck this is the last I’ll say on the topic, but it occurs to me that although I’ve written a great deal about The Rumor^™ in various other forums, I may not have made my point clearly enough here. So I’ll try to summarize what I’ve written elsewhere and that, as they say, will be that.

The problem I have with the rumored Phil Nevin for Ken Griffey Jr. deal is this:

If the Padres take on Griffey’s salary in its entirety, they’re pretty much committed to getting rid of Trevor Hoffman (itself a very tricky proposition, for reasons explained elsewhere), Ryan Klesko, and possibly Mark Kotsay. Mabye that makes sense if they’re close to contending. But right now the Padres are still in the building phase and aren’t in a position to take on salary for a potential short-term gain.

The only way the Pads make this kind of trade is if the Reds give them enough money that they end up paying Junior only a little more than what Nevin currently makes (and that won’t happen because the point of this trade from the Reds’ standpoint presumably is to rid themselves of a huge contract). Otherwise this is a disastrous trade for the Padres. Unless John Moores suddenly comes up with a bunch of money and decides he can increase payroll by a lot. And we know that’s not going to happen.

Is Griffey a better player than Nevin? If healthy, the answer is yes. It’s not as resounding as it was a few years ago, but a healthy Griffey is better than a heathy Nevin. Few people will argue that point. But this isn’t about production, it’s about money. Asking the Padres to spend an additional $49 million on payroll for a player not named Vlad or Alex over the next four years is just insane. Aside from the Expos, there aren’t many clubs less likely than the Padres to fork over that kind of cash to a single player.

Let’s distill all this talk to its most basic elements. Here is what we know about each of the parties involved:

The Reds

• are looking to trim payroll
• have a 30-year-old third baseman who made $2.1 million in 2002 and who is eligible for arbitration; for his career he is a .271/.333/.446 hitter and generally is regarded as an above-average defender

The Padres

• are not looking to add payroll
• have a 22-year-old third baseman who is as cheap as they come (right now); in his first big-league season he hit .271/.317/.323 and showed the ability to be an above-average defender

Phil Nevin

• is scheduled to make $30 million over the next 4 years
• has a no-trade clause in his contract; he and his family make their home in Poway, and he has stated that the only teams he would consider waiving his no-trade clause for are those that play and train on the west coast: the Angels, the Mariners, the Giants, and the A’s
• wants to play third base if he changes teams; that eliminates the Angels and the A’s
• is 32 years old, has hit .275/.348/.485 for his career, and generally is regarded as a below-average defender

Ken Griffey Jr.

• is scheduled to make $79 million over the next 6 years
• prior to the 2000 season demanded and received a trade from a west coast club to his hometown team, the Reds
• is under contractual obligation for the next 3-4 years to promote businesses owned by Reds owner Carl Lindner
• is 33 years old and has hit .295/.379/.562 for his career
• has missed an average of 53 games per year in his three NL seasons

Taking the above facts into consideration, here are several things that killed this deal before it ever got of the ground:

• The Reds don’t need a third baseman.
• Even if they did, Nevin can’t really play third base, so this trade doesn’t address that need.
• The Padres can’t afford to take on the additional salary that Griffey would represent without substantial (at least $30 million) compensation to the Padres.
• Cincinnati isn’t in California.
• The Padres are not a business owned by Carl Lindner.

The only way I see something getting done is if the Padres send Nevin to the Giants, who send Russ Ortiz ($2.9 million in 2002) or Jason Schmidt ($4.9 million in 2002) and maybe a second-tier prospect to the Reds, who send Griffey and a few boatloads of cash to the Pads. Still seems far-fetched to me, but stranger things have happened (see, e.g., Carrot Top’s career).

Heck, if the Padres are going to go that route, I’d rather see them pursue Brian Giles, who is younger, cheaper, healthier, and more productive at this point in their respective careers than is Junior. Plus he’s from San Diego. What could be better?

Here are some other takes on the rumor:

• When no means no (Padres.com)
• Nevin-for-Griffey talk much ado about little (NC Times)
• Nevin is ready to veto trade (NC Times)
• Griffey deal lacks Lindner OK (Cincinnati Post)

• Linder approved Griffey deal to Padres for Nevin (Cincinnati Post)
• Trading Griffey bad all around (Cincinnati Enquirer) — This one’s particuarly amusing because it shows a complete lack of understanding of the financial constraints under which the Padres are operating. Only a homer could write this.
• Reds willing to part with Griffey (Cincinnati Enquirer) — Another homer who thinks the Padres would have absorbed all of Griffey’s remaining salary. Shouldn’t these guys have at least some awareness of the Padres’ situation? A little research goes a long way.

Finally, here is what some fans in Cincy have to say: As usual, Junior is the hot topic (Cincinnati Enquirer). What’s fascinating to me is how much Reds fans seem to love Griffey despite the fact that (a) he’s missed about one-third of his team’s games since he’s joined them, (b) he hasn’t helped the Reds in the standings (in the three years preceding his arrival the Reds averaged 83 wins; in the three years since they’ve averaged 76 wins), and (c) he’s costing the club a lot of money and potentially keeping them from making other moves to improve their chances of winning. Why is his presence so important to the team? Seriously.

At any rate, even if their fans and media types don’t get it, the Reds must realize that the Padres can’t afford Griffey. And I sure as heck hope the Padres know this. If not, I guess we can all be thankful that Nevin invoked his no-trade clause and saved us from ourselves.

That’s enough for one day. I’ll talk about Brady Anderson tomorrow…

How much sense did that crazy Phil Nevin for Ken Griffey Jr. rumor make? Why would the Padres trade for a guy who is older, more expensive, and more injury prone than Nevin? Never mind the fact that Nevin has a no-trade clause in his contract. Never mind the fact that the Reds already have a third baseman in Aaron Boone. Never mind the fact that Griffey was born and raised in Cincinnati and probably doesn’t want to leave. Never mind the facts. Yes, I suppose if you ignore the facts, then this deal makes some amount of sense. Maybe.

Meantime, the Padres have signed minor-league infielder Chris Sexton. Not terribly exciting, but again, that’s what we have to work with here. Another free agent infielder the Padres should be looking at is Chris Stynes, recently released by the Cubs. A 30-year-old with a career 747 OPS who can play second, third, and the outfield? He’s like a turbo-charged version of Eric Owens. Let’s do it.

Well, not much else to talk about at the moment. I guess that Nevin for Griffey ridiculousness did serve a purpose. Meantime, be sure to check out my pictures of the new downtown stadium. Added a few more that I took yesterday. Two from ground zero, another from the eighth floor of a nearby hotel. Enjoy…

To the person who stumbled onto Ducksnorts by searching for "geoff’s tattoos" I offer this sad revelation: I have none.

To the rest of you, let’s talk baseball.

There’s an interesting problem here in Padreland that folks have been reluctant to talk about because it involves one of the team’s most popular players. But it’s starting to generate some heat over at Fanstop so I’ll mention it here. For all the discussion of the obvious black holes behind the plate an in the middle infield, there is another issue that may prove more troublesome to solve.

Trevor Hoffman.

With the retirement of Tony Gwynn, Hoffman is the senior Padre player. He’s well respected and liked by teammates, the media, and fans alike. He’s a solid member of the community. Basically, he’s everything Gwynn was, on a smaller scale (no pun intended). And like Gwynn, he holds several Padre records. Heck, he holds the big-league record for saves with one team. Hoffman is a cultural icon here in San Diego.

So, what’s the problem?

The Padres are blowing a quarter of their payroll on a guy who works 60 innings a year. As much as it pains me to admit this, because Hoffman is one of my favorite players in the game right now, I’m not sure that’s a wise way for an organization that refers to itself as "small market" to be allocating its resources. Hoffy has done a great deal for the city and the ballclub, and he seems like a heckuva good guy. But he isn’t young, and he isn’t cheap. And on a team that constantly cries "small market" that’s not a winning combination.

Please don’t send me hate mail (oh, go ahead if it makes you feel better); I’m just reporting the facts. No, I don’t have a solution. The very thing that makes Hoffman a problem (his contract) also makes it difficult to fix that problem. What team can afford to take on 9+ million bucks for a 35-year-old pitcher who appeared in just over 4% of his team’s innings last year?

I don’t know what the Padres can do. They can’t trade him because of his salary, and even if they could it would be a PR nightmare. People were upset that Euguene freakin’ Kingsale was run out of town and he was a spare outfielder who added little value and who only spent half a season here. Hoffman’s pitched over 600 games for the Pads and, as mentioned before, he’s almost universally loved in San Diego.

I guess the only two possibilities I can think of right now are: a) ask Hoffman to renegotiate his contract and take a pay cut (you know, like they always do with schoolteachers) or b) get John Moores or someone more willing/able to commit the money needed to build a team to pony up the cash for free agents and not use Hoffman’s contract as an excuse for making Jesse Orosco your biggest off-season acquisition.

I dunno, maybe we could hold a bake sale. Who’s with me?

Meanwhile, Back at the Ranch

The A’s and White Sox made a trade that seems to be generating a lot excitement. In case you missed it, Billy Koch went to Chicago, while Keith Foulke, Mark Johnson, Joe Valentine, and a wad of money came to Oakland. Statheads love this one for the A’s because they believe Koch is overrated, Foulke underrated, Johnson better than he really is, and Valentine possibly a useful reliever in his own right. The guys on SportsCenter see it as a salary dump.

Me? I don’t understand what the fuss is about. Two closers swap uniforms, some money changes hands, and that’s pretty much it. Talk of Foulke as a starter (didn’t he have endurance problems earlier in his career?) or Johnson as more than a backup frankly baffles me, and I don’t think that Koch is nearly as bad as some folks think he is (nor is he as good as others believe). Both of these guys are solid relievers; on balance I’d rather have Foulke, but the difference bewtween the two isn’t that great.

To me it looks like the key to this deal is that the White Sox were willing to pay some of Foulke’s salary. The A’s were able to cut costs without appreciably hurting their club (and possibly helping it a little–not a lot). A smart move, but not very interesting.

On the other hand, it’s not as boring as signing Jesse Orosco.

Stupid Web Tricks: Anagrams

Some of these work better than others.

• Mark Kotsay Kayak Storm
• Ryan Klesko Skylark One, Roan Elk Sky
• Trevor Hoffman Father of Mr. Von, Tavern off Mohr, Eat VHF from Ron, Fat Vern from OH
• Sean Burroughs A Rosebush Rung, A Bong User Rush, A Brush Surgeon, A Brush Urges On, A Bush Ogre Runs, Subrange Hours, Rehab Our Guns, Saber Gun Hours, Gus Bears Huron, Abusers Hug Ron, Bangs Our Usher, Brash Rouge Sun, Ban Guru Horses, Unbar Hog Users, Go Urban Ushers, Boar Users Hung, Shun Bar Rogues, Bar Unsure Hogs, Bar Shogun User, Rose Bra Hung Us, Bra Users Hog UN

Hey, I told you they were stupid. I’m outta here…

In his Friday Baseball America chat, Allan Simpson cited Jake Gautreau as the fifth best second base prospect in the game. I’m currently working on my Padres Top 30 for 2003, and right now Gautreau looks to be somewhere in the back half of the Top 10. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him duplicate last year’s #7 ranking. More on that in the weeks to come…

The Red Sox are signing some interesting people. A couple of six-year minor-leaguers that I wouldn’t have minded seeing in San Diego: 1B Julio Zuleta and RHP Steve Woodard. They also grabbed former Padre RHP Tom Davey.

The Devil Rays released RHP Ryan Rupe. Not that the Padres are short of right-handed options for the rotation, but Rupe is a guy with some upside. He’s been plagued by the long ball, injuries, and toiling for an organization that has no clue. Wouldn’t surprise me to see him pull a Rodrigo Lopez and be a productive member of someone’s rotation next season.

Re-reading some stuff I wrote a while back. Keep myself accountable (although you guys generally do a pretty good job of that). Thinking of my lack of enthusiasm over the selection of Khalil Greene in the first round of the 2002 draft. At one point I compared him to Kevin Nicholson.

Of course, I’d never actually seen Greene play when I wrote that. And I suppose as a Pad fan I’ve just grown accustomed to shortstops that aren’t worth squat. But I’d like to go on the record as saying I couldn’t have been more wrong about Greene. Defensively he doesn’t have the artistry of an Omar Vizquel (or, IMHO, even a Ramon Vazquez). But after seeing him a handful of times this past summer and looking at the numbers he put up at Elsinore (and the progress he made during his stint there), I’m pretty satisfied this kid will hit at the big league level.

Kevin Towers has compared Greene to Rich Aurilia, and if you throw out Aurilia’s monster 2001 campaign, I don’t think that’s at all unreasonable. Greene, to me, looks like a guy who should flirt with .300 and hit 15-20 homers a year, possibly more. I’ll end the suspense right now and say that he is the Padres’ best prospect going into 2003. Xavier Nady is close and will contribute sooner, but Greene has a chance to be the Pads’ first impact shortstop since, well, I guess since Garry Templeton.

Finally I leave you with some sites that have caught my eye of late:

• The Diamond Angle — A reader alerted me to this one, and it delivers on its claim to being an "eclectic baseball magazine." Based out of Maui (go Sting Rays!), this site features a nice mix of historical rememberances and statistical analysis. Check it out when you’re done here.
• WolvesGeek — I have to admit, I’m not a huge basketball fan, but TwinsGeek’s sister site features some good writing and an interesting attempt to bring sabermetric-type analysis to James Naismith’s game.
• Astronomy Picture of the Day — This site contains some incredible pictures of stars, comets, and a variety of other celestial bodies. I like looking at these when things aren’t going my way; gives me a good sense of perspective.

That’s all for now. Tomorrow, we’ll revisit Sickels and win shares (and to those of you who have requested the data set, no I have not forgotten about you; I hope to have everything finished by the end of January, if not sooner). It’ll be more fun than you can shake a stick at. Ponder that one…

By special request from "fracas" over at Baseball Primer, Ducksnorts is back in effect. Postings may be a little sporadic from now till the end of the year but I intend on being more visible than I have for most of this past month.

So, what’s going on? Well, first off, it seems that there’s more to this Brett Tomko for Marcus Giles talk than the musings of a few fans over at Fanstop. Apparently the Bravos, being the smart organization that they are, are also interested in Dennis Tankersley. My current optimal deal would be something like Tomko, Jeremy Fikac, and Eric Cyr for Giles and a second-tier prospect.

Also over at Fanstop we’ve been discussing other middle infield options. Jose Ortiz, recently released by the Rockies, appears headed to Japan. There’s a guy whose stock fell in a hurry. From being a threat to Miguel Tejada in Oakland to the Far East in four short years. Gotta think he’ll be back playing in the U.S. at some point. We’ve also wondered aloud at the possibility of bringing back Damian Jackson, just cut loose by the Tigers.

We’ve also had our pipe dreams of acquiring the likes of Bobby Hill or, gasp, Jose Vidro. It’s amazing to me that this organization is still suffering from the trade of Robbie Alomar back in the early-’90s. Vidro. Sorry, I won’t mention his name again. That’s just cruel.

On the "no news is good news" front, I haven’t heard any updates on the potential signing of Royce Clayton. The more I think about Clayton, the more I like Marcus Giles.

The Padres did sign one free agent, though: first baseman Mario Valdez. If you’re not familiar with him, Valdez was a decent prospect for the White Sox in the late-’90s but was blocked by the immovable object that is Frank Thomas. He’s hit for a high average in the minors, with a bunch of doubles and walks. Sort of a David Segui type. Valdez also hails from Mexico, which is always a bonus here just north of the border. Valdez is 28 years old and has hit .238/.352/.315 over the parts of three big-league seasons with the Sox and the A’s. Give him 200 PA, and he could make a positive contribution off the bench for the Pads in a Dave Hansen kind of way.

Oh, let me backtrack a bit. The Pads also signed ageless wonder Jesse Orosco to retire about 100 batters (or just plain old retire) in 2003. Tying up a roster spot on a guy like that (with a no-trade clause, no less) makes little sense to me, but there is some talk that this may be like the Dave Magadan signing a few years back and is as much an opportunity for Orosco, who lives in Poway, to get his foot in the door for a possible coaching position down the line. Still, it does make one wonder what, exactly, the Pads plan to do with the likes of Mike Bynum and Eric Cyr (psst, free Marcus Giles).

Also, right-hander Francisco Cordova has been inked for the upcoming season. If healthy, Cordova–another Mexican native–figures to slot toward the back of the rotation and would make an excellent replacement for the possibly soon-to-be-departed Tomko. The good news with Cordova is that he’s only 31 years old and his career ERA is below 4.00. The bad news is that he hasn’t thrown a pitch in the big leagues since 2000. Still, if he’s healthy, he could be sort of a poor man’s Andy Ashby (though probably not the 1998 version).

And, in a couple of minor moves, the Padres have re-signed southpaw relievers Jose Nuñez and Rob Ramsay, both of whom missed most or all of the 2002 season and who had been placed on waivers earlier this month. Both pitchers’ careers are in doubt, but it’s good to see the Pads sticking with them nonetheless.

Finally, the Pads have added RHP Michael Nicolas, LHP Cory Stewart, 2B Bernie Castro, and OF Jay Bay (acquired from the Mets in the Steve Reed trade and compared by some to Bubba Trammell) and Vince Faison to the 40-man roster. Notably absent from the 40-man: OF Ben Johnson. He’s likely too raw to be of use to anyone as Rule V guy, but this still seems like a risky move to me.

That’s all for now. More next week, when I begin posting photos of the new ballpark from the 20th floor of a large office building downtown. Later…