Friday was supposed to be mailbag day, but somebody was pretty bummed and beat after Thursday night’s debacle against the Devil Rays. The Padres are not playing inspired or intelligent baseball right now, and I’m having trouble writing inspired or intelligent analysis. This is the first real bad streak they’ve had all year and it is not at all fun to watch.

Brian Lawrence pitched a beautiful game yesterday and got no support. He gave up a run on a single after a pop up that three Padres stood around and watched drop for a double in the second, then served up a homer to Orlando Hudson (incidentally, why is it that the likes of Hudson, Frank Menechino, and Gregg Zaun have no trouble hitting the ball out of Petco?) that bounced off the top of the wall in left-center a few frames later. Offensively, there were big problems. First and third, nobody out in the fourth? Bases loaded, one out in the seventh? Kerry Robinson pinch-hitting in the eighth with Phil Nevin, Jay Payton, and Khalil Greene available? Never mind them, what about Lawrence, who was the scheduled batter? He’s a better option than Robinson.

I don’t understand why the Padres always have to carry one useless position player on the roster and let him waste at-bats better given to more productive players. And we can’t even blame this one on the Rule V draft.

On the pitching side, roster management is just as baffling. Ricky Stone, who was doing nothing with the Astros, is picked up off waivers and added to the big-league staff. Brian Sweeney is hanging around but still hasn’t made his Padre debut. Rod Beck, great story that he was last year, has nothing left. And the guy who gets sent down to make room for Ramon Vazquez is Dennis Tankersley, who has been nothing less than terrific since moving into the rotation? What the heck is going on here?

Now I’m just working myself into a frenzy, so let’s get to the letters. First up, from Jurgen:

High School shortstops are a bad idea in the first round? Um, what about this guy?

Any 20-year-old who can hit .302/.407/.542 in AAA looks like a keeper to me. (Are the Devil Rays truly become a good club when [Delmon] Young, [B.J.] Upton, [Jeff] Niemann are all playing in the majors together?)

But you’re right. Given the long odds of snagging an Upton or a Rodriguez, more clubs would be better off investing their top draft picks elsewhere. It’s like the lottery. Just because somebody is going to win the million dollars, still doesn’t mean it’s a smart idea to blow all your money on lottery tickets.

Good to hear from you, Jurgen. The Devil Rays are a fascinating ballclub. In addition to the guys you mention, they also have Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, and some pretty neat young pitchers (Chad Gaudin, Dewon Brazelton, and those flamethrowers out of the bullpen). They should be interesting to watch over the next several years.

As for Upton, you’re absolutely right. He’s a stud prospect, and I completely missed him when I looked at this a couple of weeks ago. That might be cause for hope, except that I don’t think Matt Bush is in the same mold. I know you’re not suggesting that he is, but I just want to make that perfectly clear.

Bottom line is, the recent track record of high school shortstops drafted in the first round is not good. How Bush fits into all this remains to be seen. But thanks for calling me on missing Upton. He is in a different class from the other first-rounders we examined.

Next one is from A.G., who also has the draft on his mind:

Just some thoughts on the HS shortstops side re Matt Bush.

1. Matt’s issue, from all I’ve heard, will be his bat. So it isn’t real likely he’ll be forced off short, at least according to scouts, but the issue may be that his bat doesn’t leave the middle infield.
2. High school players need a lot of time in the minors. Matt is 17, but most are 18. We need to give Matt four to seven years, but I think it would be better to do a study a bit further back. The latest would go is 1998. So maybe 1988-1998. A 1998 shortstop is just 24 this year, so maybe even further is advisable.

Personally, I see Matt’s highest upside as Alan Trammell, more realistic as Mark Loretta, Jeff Cirillo type. Obviously, he has a long way to go.

A.G. is a regular over at Fanstop, and as always, he raises some excellent points. The comment that Bush won’t be forced off short I’m assuming is in response to my observation that "moving a kid off shortstop at some point is almost a given." Yeah, from what I hear, you’re probably right about that. I was speaking more generally, that in recent history, high school shortstops drafted in the first round haven’t stayed there (of the 13 taken from 1996 to 2003, only Upton, Sergio Santos, and Brandon Wood remain at short). More than three-quarters of those guys moved to a different position. Statistically speaking, that is a pretty hefty percentage. But you’re right that we need to look at each case individually, and Bush strikes me as a good candidate to remain.

The point about doing a study going further back also is valid. What I put together was a real quick-and-dirty look at recent picks culled from the Baseball America Almanacs available at hand. A more thorough investigation would be interesting and perhaps informative as well. If nothing else, it would allow us to include the likes of Derek Jeter and A-Rod in our study.

Our next note comes from Derek Snyder:

What do you think our chances of getting [Carlos] Beltran are? Do you think he’s who we should be after? Personally, if we have to give up [Xavier] Nady and [Justin] Germano to get him that sounds good to me, even though he’ll just be a summer rental…

I’ve heard rumors that there are pink Padres jerseys circulating from somewhere. Any idea where they can be gotten? I have a six year old…and Padres/Mets tickets at Shea season (I’m a NY’er) later in the season. I’d love to bring her in that there.

Interesting you should ask about Beltran. My own personal opinion is that any deal would have to be contingent on the Pads being able to sign him to an extension. The Padres aren’t really the type of organization that can afford to throw away young talent in a rent-a-player situation. How likely is an extension? Well, Beltran is represented by Scott Boras. I’m not going to bash Boras, because I think he actually is great at his job and I respect him quite a bit for that, but I don’t believe working out an extension with Beltran will be an easy task. And I’m not sure that it’s even a good idea for the Padres, considering the type of money that is likely to be sought. For me, if it costs Nady and Germano for a rental, I consider it. But the Royals are already said to be asking about Sean Burroughs, and that’s without any assurances that Beltran will remain in San Diego beyond this year. Honestly, I don’t see it happening.

I say it’s intersting that you ask about Beltran because Jeff Sullivan, of the excellent Leone for Third blog, attended Saturday night’s Baseball Prospectus event at Petco. Here is Jeff’s take on what Kevin Towers said about Beltran:

The Padres are not interested in trading for Carlos Beltran, and are only involved to drive up the price for Los Angeles. Seriously, he said that. On the record. He added that, while Beltran would fit the team to a T, Towers doesn’t want to allocate all of his winter resources in a single player, no matter how talented.

Jeff’s actually got a bunch of other interesting tidbits from the night, so head on over and read about it after you’re done here. As for pink Padres jerseys, Derek, I’m afraid I can’t help you there. I’ve not heard of such a thing, nor was I able to find any references out on the Web. Maybe one of our readers will be able to help. Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Okay, I actually have several more letters here, but this is already getting a bit long so we’ll save those for later. I should mention again that I do read everything that you send. If I don’t respond to your letter right away (or even at all), please don’t take it personally. There’s only one of me here, and I can only get to you guys after I’ve made sure the family is fed, etc.

Finally, a few links from a couple regulars. Howard Lynch sends us these:

• Kevin Goldstein’s Prospect Hot Sheet (BA). Tim Stauffer checks in at #16, while Tagg Bozied and Freddy Guzman earn honorable mentions.
• Reliever Evaluation Tools Report (Baseball Prospectus). I haven’t read up on the methodology, but Aki Otsuka, Scott Linebrink, and Jay Witasick all rank among the top 30 big-league relievers by Wolverton’s methods (through games of June 16). Padre bullpen as a whole is ranked second behind the Dodgers.
• Draft and other subjects (Padre Prospects Report). Hank gives props to pitching coach Darren Balsley. I’ve seen the work Balsley did at Elsinore with the likes of Tankersley, Jake Peavy, and Ollie Perez. I was thrilled with his addition to the big-league staff when it happened, and nothing since then has caused my excitement to abate in the slightest. The Pads found a good one there.

Meanwhile, Jeff #287 says, "You’re always passing along such intriguing websites, I stumbled across one I find pretty entertaining":

• Death Gets a Website

I’ll let that stand on its own and at this point take my leave. Here’s hoping the offense will show up for the Arizona series…