The Shape of Things to Come

Top of the ninth, two on, one out. Adrian Gonzalez steps to the plate. Braves manager Bobby Cox summons ex-Padre Royce Ring, who promptly hangs a breaking ball. Gonzalez swats it high and deep down the right-field line. He, catcher Brian McCann, and plate umpire Wally Bell all watch as it sails into the Atlanta night… just foul for strike one.

Ring proceeds to fan Gonzalez. After a pitching change, Kevin Kouzmanoff lofts a harmless fly ball to center, into the waiting glove of another ex-Padre, Mark Kotsay. Game over. The Padres lose again.

That’s the season in a nutshell so far. The Padres play poorly, and then, when they get opportunity, it fizzles… or misses by a few feet, whatever.

I’m not prepared to give up on the season. Maybe it’s a reflection on how well the Padres have played since moving to Petco Park, or maybe it’s just my own stubbornness, but I refuse to believe that these next 129 games should serve merely as an audition for 2009. This seems too much like panic to me, and I don’t like making decisions based on fear.

That said, changes are needed. And from what I hear, they are a-comin’, possibly as early as this weekend. Some of these are already rumored to be in the works and have been discussed in the comments, but here are a few moves I’d like to see made to improve the Padres for this year and give them a better chance to compete right now:

  • Use Colt Morton or find a backup catcher that Bud Black trusts and is willing to pencil into the lineup twice a week. Josh Bard‘s fumes are running on fumes, and his entire game is suffering for it. Bard is a solid big-league catcher, but you’d never know it from watching him the past few weeks. Black needs to get him more rest. Say what you will about Bruce Bochy’s in-game tactics, the guy knew how to utilize his bench. This would not have happened under Bochy’s watch.
  • Offer Callix Crabbe back to the Brewers and get a real utility player. Crabbe is a second baseman with decent on-base skills masquerading as a jack-of-all-trades. He isn’t the second coming of Bip Roberts, and he isn’t a legitimate option at shortstop — the fact that he hadn’t played an inning at the position since 2003 in the Midwest League should have been a clue, but apparently not. Who takes Crabbe’s place? Oscar Robles? Oops, the Phillies claimed him off waivers. Luis Rodriguez? Oops, he’s on the disabled list. Sean Kazmar? Well, he can play shortstop but he’s hitting .179/.273/.253 at Double-A. I never thought I’d utter these words, but I actually kinda miss Geoff Blum.
  • Release Jim Edmonds and try someone else in center. I don’t really care who — Scott Hairston, Jody Gerut, Chip Ambres, Will Venable if he’s healthy. Heck, even Drew Macias wouldn’t be terrible, which is more than can be said for Edmonds. Bringing in the veteran on the cheap was a nice idea, but this is less Mike Piazza/Greg Maddux and more David Wells (Second Edition). When the Padres picked up Edmonds I figured that his bat — with the possible exception of residual on-base skills — was done but that he might have value defensively in center field. Well, he doesn’t. So now the Padres are starting a no-glove, no-hit guy at a key position and batting him fifth. That’s an outstanding way to lose ballgames.
  • Remove Justin Germano from the rotation. His smoke-and-mirrors act isn’t fooling anyone. The Padres have plenty of internal options to replace Germano. None is particularly exciting, but I’m prepared to accept “passable” right now. Clay Hensley has suffered a setback in his rehab and Mark Prior… well, who knows what he’s doing. On the big club, Wil Ledezma is pumping mid-90s octane from the left side in garbage time. How well will his success in meaningless situations translate to a starting role? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t mind finding out. Other possibilities include Josh Geer (a Germano clone, less the detailed scouting reports against him), Cesar Ramos (a lefty version of Geer), and Shawn “I Was Good in ’97″ Estes. So, yeah, let’s try Ledezma.
  • Keep Joe Thatcher out of crucial situations until he figures out what he’s doing. Make him the long man or, better, send him back to Triple-A and bring up someone else from Portland — perhaps Dirk Hayhurst (3.48 ERA, 11.76 K/9, .213 BAA in 20.2 IP).
  • Lose Glendon Rusch. I have no explanation for his continued presence on the roster. Honestly, I’d rather see his spot occupied by a position player. One of my few criticisms of Black as a manager is his insistence on carrying seven arms in the bullpen and concurrent refusal to trust more than four or five of them. If the guys at the back of the line can’t be relied upon to perform their duties, then they don’t belong in the big leagues.

I’m also wondering a bit about the coaching staff. The Padres’ baserunning has been atrocious this year. Some of this can be blamed on a general lack of speed, but even slow guys can run the bases intelligently. I don’t know who or what is at the root of the Pads’ recklessness on the bases, but if I’m third-base coach Glenn Hoffman, I’m not feeling real comfortable right about now.

Same goes for Wally Joyner. This team has a recent history of axing its hitting coaches, and both Dave Magadan and Merv Rettenmund were getting much more out of their charges when they were let go. The fact that Joyner and Kevin Towers were college teammates could complicate matters, but they’ve been in the business long enough to know how it works.

There are a bunch of trade rumors floating around as well, but it’s hard to separate the wheat from the chaff, so we won’t go there. That and I’m out of breath. Stay tuned…

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161 Responses »

  1. #96@Tom Waits: There’s an unlimited number of examples of teams not drafting guys because they know they can’t afford to sign them. If the Yankees tell a first round pick that they’ll draft him in the fourth and pay him $10 million, then his agent will make it clear to teams that they can waste a pick on him, but he’s not signing for under $10 million. It’s only in a team’s interest to draft him if they know they have a good chance of meeting his demands

    If your investment expert is telling you to diversify level of volatility rather than type of volatility, fire him now.

    A player’s value at the draft is essentially a weighted average of the chance he’ll turn out to be a certain kind of player. For instance, 10% chance of being a 9, 30% of being an 8, etc. A team may prefer to draft a guy that has a 33% chance each of being a 5,6, or 7, over a guy that has a 20% chance each of being a 4,5,6,7, or 8. Both players are equally valued as a 6, but one’s more of a sure thing, the other could be anything from a 4 to an 8. If you’re trying to rehabilitate a minor league system, it makes sense to go with more of the sure things until you’ve built up a solid base.

  2. #97@Geoff Young: Could Gerut be getting ready to be the everyday center fielder? I say that is most likely the case. Has anyone seen him play the position in person recently or heard anything about how capable he is at the position? What about a defensive scouting report on Chip Ambres? Anyone, anyone?

  3. 101. Usually the players that have flexibility make it known the amount of money that they want. It has more to do with teams that are unwilling to spend major league salaries/and eat up 40-man roster spots to players that are a long way from the majors – which is a big gamble.

    The problem is many of the “solid base” type players are not going to be difference making MLB players – the type that medium/small market teams need to acquire to be competitive.

    If you go back to the example we were discussing signing someone like Porcello is a huge gamble – but then again thinking that Jim Edmunds is going to rebound offensively in a park like PETCO is also one. Myself, I much more prefer the upside of Porcello to Edmunds.

    The Padres will take risks on young guys – in 2006 they selected two high school players fairly high – Kyler Burke and Cedric Hunter – one worked, one didn’t. The bottom line is a team like the AZ Diamondbacks has had success spending money on the types of players that the Padres tend not to pick.

  4. #96@Tom Waits: The point isn’t that small-market teams can’t benefit from paying over slot. The point is that the slotting system is the one way that small-market teams are placed on equal footing with large-market teams. So while it may not be in their interest to only pay slot in individual cases, in the bigger picture, it is more important that they keep the slotting system in place. I only benefit from cutting in line while that line exists. Even though some of the bigger guys in line may cut on occasion, it’s probably better for me to stay in line and try to keep them in line, then try to compete with them in a free for all when I’m one of the smaller guys around.

  5. #101@FriarFanDan: No, there are a “lot” of examples of teams “willingly deciding” that they don’t want to either pay a player or deal with the complicated negotiations. There’s not a single example of a team that actually “couldn’t” afford a player. Once he’s drafted, the team completely, absolutely, and utterly controls his rights to play professional baseball in the United States for one year. The player can hold out, he can choose to go to college, he can play Indy ball for a year, but those are all risks. The one thing the player can’t do is sign with another MLB team that year.

    The Padres portfolio consists almost entirely of strike-throwing college pitchers with fringe stuff and polished college hitters without big power (in some cases, with almost no power). Level, type, there’s not much diversity there. And that limits your returns.

    People have been trying to defend the Padres approach of “building a base” for almost 10 years now. Before Alderson and Fuson, they primarily drafted college players. Now they draft almost entirely college players. And again, you’ll look in vain for anyone, especially me, suggesting that they go strictly for upside. ONE high upside sign would be nice. ONE Colon. ONE Green. ONE Burgess.

    The payoff for a farm system is in major league players, either on the team that drafted them or being traded for them. Who on earth would rather have five Paul McAnulty’s than one Alex Rodriguez? If you only got one elite player and nobody else in five years, the elite player would be far more valuable. That’s even more true when the team chooses not to spend money on elite free agents.

  6. I don’t know if someone already commented on this or not, too many comments to read… but they removed Germano from the rotation yesterday. Ledzema is going to start tomorrow.

  7. #103@John Conniff: I agree completely on Porcello being less of a risk than Edmonds. I just have to figure that Sandy sees that too. So he must also perceive an additional cost that we’re not factoring in. One possible cost is undermining the slotting system, which benefits the Padres relative to other clubs. That would explain is dogged adherence to the slotting system, despite the obvious benefit of paying over slot.

  8. 105. To be a devil’s advocate they did go upside on Kyler Burke in 2006 – spent nearly a million dollars on him. He’s now in his third professional season and has yet to hit.

    Its tough to find fault in picking him – tremendous athlete, two-way player in high school – he just can’t hit.

  9. I’m surprised there has been no mention of the rule 5 draft either.

    If I remember correctly a few of us (I know I was) were really hoping for the Padres to draft Brian Barton and instead I think we got Callix Crabbe. While I’m not on the oust Callix Crabbe bandwagon that some people here seem to be on (because I still don’t know what the guy can or can’t do because he never plays) I do think the pick would have been much better served on a guy with center field potential. With all the decent middle infielder types we had performing pretty well in spring training Crabbe was not a need and as it turned out outfield depth and athleticism would have been awesome.

    Barton is a small sample has been a good player so far for the Cardinals.

  10. 107. There were a couple of things too besides the costs – I’m sure taking up a spot on the 40 man roster was one, different incentives clauses, etc.

  11. #107@FriarFanDan: Once again unless the slot system is inforced whats the point of following it? The best players will still request money over slot and teams will still be willing to pay it. You have to inforce the slot system for it to work.

  12. #104@FriarFanDan: Teams are on an equal footing in terms of draftable talent without the slotting system. They were on an equal footing before the slotting system was even instituted.

    The numbers are right there for anybody to look at. Teams that adhere to slot spend anywhere from 1m to 3m less than teams that don’t. That’s petty cash. It’s Michael Barrett. It’s half of “Get this fork out of my back” Jim Edmonds. And that money buys you control of the player for years.

    Your example doesn’t work, because in the baseball draft, the big guys can’t push you out of the way. Your pick is your pick. The player you select determines whether he’ll sign with you, but he’s not playing pro ball for anyone but you for the next 12 months. What’s happening now is that the Padres (and other slot-adherents) are NOT staying in line. They’re basically giving away their place in line.

  13. SA will be on XX in about 5 to 10 minutes.

  14. 111. Problem is MLB doesn’t enforce it and I’m not sure they could. Also as TW pointed out for a team like the Royals to whine about the costs and then go out and pay Guillen $30 million doesn’t really jibe.

    Think about it – Tampa, not exactly a team rolling in cash – pays above slot.

  15. At the very least the Padres should trade something to Milwaukee and send Crabbe to Portland, if not release his outright.

  16. #108@John Conniff: And it was a good risk….but it still was slot. When they only draft 10 or so HS kids in 3 years, it’s going to be hard to draw much of a conclusion.

    #107@FriarFanDan: The more likely “additional cost” is just plain, simple money. It costs more to go over slot. The Padres don’t want to spend the money. Ergo, adherence
    to slot.

    #109@KRS1: Barton was gone before we picked. We would have needed to trade up to get him.

  17. #114@John Conniff: The NBA does…

  18. #116@Tom Waits:

    Yeah I know but I belive there was a rumor the morning of the rule 5 draft that we had a deal in place to trade for the number 1 rule 5 pick. I could be wrong but I want to say the deal was for cash like $25-50k. I’ll try to find something.

  19. #80@Geoff Young: I think trading CY is something we SHOULD do but WONT do. He gets hurt a lot and I think his numbers are a bit superficial because of Petco. He can be great at times, but he has started to be bad almost as often as he is good. He doesnt throw hard or with any movment and his size gives him health issues. I think there will be a large market for a guy like him as the deadline approaches and I really don’t think he is necessary to the future success of the Padres.

  20. 116. I think it was a good risk too. I think too many people believe that you have to go one way or another. There is no reason you can’t draft both college and high school players – especially with the number of picks the team had last year.

    117. True, but MLB doesn’t – which is the problem.

  21. PMACS RC/PA x27 is 4.0, 3rd after AGON and Giles. eg. Edmunds is 1.4 Kooz 3.4 and Greene 2.0. See TBT to calc. JP @ #82 you seem to be defining a moneyball player.

  22. Penny got shelled giving up 10 runs in 4 innings. Main is pitching a 2 hit gem as that Mets lead the Dodgers 12-0 in the 7th.

  23. #116@Tom Waits: But if there is no additional cost, doesn’t that just make Sandy an idiot?

    Sandy is a shrewd baseball executive that makes wise business decisions.
    Paying over slot is advantageous.
    The Padres don’t pay over slot.

    One of those statements must necessarily be false and we know it’s not the last one. So is Sandy making poor business decisions or is there a disadvantage to paying over slot? I find it more plausible that there are some hidden costs to paying over slot than that Sandy isn’t as shrewd a baseball executive as he seems and his reputation indicates. I really don’t have a horse in this race, I just find arguing over issues, when done respectfully and intelligently (as is almost always the case at ducksnorts), is the best way to illuminate those issues.

  24. Sandy pretty much said that Headley will not be coming up on friday and that Guret prob will.

    They do not want to rush Headley and Antonelli.

  25. #33.

    This is a bit late, but I agree with you. By FO, I was referring to a group that includes Moores. I was not trying to imply that Towers, Alderson or anyone else but Moores is responsible for us being cheap.

    However, they were responsible for not be prepared with the Matt Bush pick. And I do think that they could sell resource allocation better inside the org — less Geoff Blums, more draft picks.

  26. Sandy also said that no Padre coaches are on the hot seat.

  27. #126@Steve C: Thanks for the updates. Would you be willing to post a summary once the interview is finished? I’m not suprised that they’re holding back Antonelli and Headley for the time being.

    Did he say anything about Hundley? What about our pitching guys like Ramos, Geer, or LeBlanc?

  28. #127@Phantom: That was pretty much it, Billy and Darren don’t exactly ask “burning” questions and Sandy would just avoid them anyways.

    Nope no mention of any pitching prospects. The only pitching question was about why Ledezma is pitcing tomorrow instead of Peavy on his normal rest and Sandy just said that it was buddy’s choice.

  29. Antonelli really isn’t off to that bad a start. He has a great ISO Slugging, he’s walking a goodly amount and isn’t striking out too much.

    His issue to date has been a .210 BA on BIP. For a line drive hitter, that’s just bad luck. I haven’t seen him, so maybe he’s popping it up a lot or whatever, but I bet he rebounds strongly.

  30. Hey GY do you think there is any way you would be able to do an interview with Sandy?

  31. #129@Alan: I agree with you but It couldn’t hurt to keep him in AAA instead of pulling him up into the disaster that is the Padres at the moment. Let the team cut some dead weight, level out a bit and then pull him up.

  32. Didn’t see this mentioned yet – apologies if I missed it – MadFriars is reporting that Luke Carlin has been added to the 40-man roster. No word on who he is replacing.

  33. #132@Winfield’s Ghost: I think that there is room from when they put Robles on waivers.

  34. #132@Winfield’s Ghost: I saw that. I know that he is one of the better defensive catchers in the organization, which would probably make him a much better option as a backup than Morton.

  35. #119@SDSUBaseball: The amount that Petco helps CY has been overstated by some folks in MSM. As for getting hurt a lot, he’s made 30 or more starts in three straight seasons. I’ll take that.

    #130@Steve C: No clue. I can look into it, though.

  36. I kind of expect these moves to happen before friday:
    1. Send Morton down to AA
    2. Release Edmonds
    3. Put Cameron on the DL
    4. Call up Carlin or Hundley
    5. Call up Guret
    6. Call up Estes

  37. #135@Geoff Young: Cool please do, It would be really nice having someone interview him who knows a little more about baseball/the Padres than the guys on the radio.

  38. #135@Geoff Young: Thats because he makes starts when he is hurt and ends up look like the 2nd half of last year. He has looked similar most of this year already. If making starts and eating innings was what I wanted form a #2 then no problem, but I want more consistency. I think it would be a good idea to trade him. Personally I think Petco helps CY more than you think, but his (fluke) 2006 numbers are going to lopside his home and away splits. I think his ’07 and ’08 splits are more what we should expect.

  39. #137@Steve C: I think the people on the radio just know not to ask the kinds of questions we want answered because they will get round about answers from SA.

  40. #123@FriarFanDan: Maybe I wasn’t clear. The advantage is the money that they don’t pay. It’s not an advantage in terms of a competitive franchise. It’s an advantage in terms of reduced cost to the owner(s) of the Padres. Paying slot is a way to control costs, with a built-in rationale that it’s “the right thing to do” or “because it’s good for baseball.” It’s advantageous to pay over slot if your intention is to accumulate the greatest possible pool of talent. If that’s not your intention, then paying over slot isn’t advantageous.

    I don’t think Alderson is an idiot in any way. I think he is executing EXACTLY the strategy that he wants to execute.

  41. #139@SDSUBaseball: I think thast true to a point but what I meant was that GY can ask him more indepth Q’s about the farm system than Philly Billy.

  42. #141@Steve C: His audience is also all hardcore fans who would want more detailed questions than your general sports talk listener.

  43. #142@Steve C: I just dont know if he would answer then any differently for GY than on the radio…

  44. #139@SDSUBaseball: Since he won’t talk to them about Mark Loretta anymore, they don’t know what else to ask him.

  45. #136@Steve C: I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to talk Edmonds into going on the DL, with a long minor league rehab to see if he can find some bat speed again. If he’s not fed up with the whole thing he might give it a shot, it’s hard to believe he’d want his last memories to be the hacks he’s taken this week.

    #134@JMAR: Better, or more likely to be used by Black, either way works as long as it saves Bard from the death march.

    Carlin’s minor league numbers aren’t terrible. Good OBP, zero power, switch-hitter.

  46. #145@Tom Waits: Carlin is swinging a pretty hot bat in AAA too. Not a bad move if they arent going to play Morton.

  47. #143@SDSUBaseball: The quality of the questions would almost necessarily lead to more informative answers. Anyone interviewed by Philly Billy must sign a waiver that they won’t punch him in the nose.

  48. #143@SDSUBaseball: Its not different answers its different Q’s which sandy would answer, like…

    Where does Eric Sogard project in the organization? Do you think he could be promoted to SA for the second half of the season? Does he project to another position if he continues to play well and get blocked at 2B by Antonelli?

    Questions like that Sandy should not have any problems answering and the radio guys dont cover because they either A. have not clue who Sogard is or B. their audience has no clue who he is so they do not want to boar them with those Q’s.

    But your right if GY asked will Edmonds be on this team in 2 weeks he will not get a responce.

  49. #148@Steve C: Or C: they dont have that much time and asking about a kid in A ball isnt really an issue with the big club right now. But I get what you are saying, and ya its possible you could get some good answers to those questions if they were asked. I wonder if Sogard has the glove to move to SS? Or if Antonelli moves to CF Sogard would be valuable at 2B. Who knows at this point.

  50. #145@Tom Waits: Funny, I was just thinking about that scenario. Give the veteran Edmonds a chance to go on the DL, let him relax, take a deep breath, play as many rehab games as possible, and come back refreshed or retire. If he comes back looking better, maybe they could trade him for a minor leaguer. This might be worth a shot. They’re going to pay his salary anyways, whether he’s released or on the DL.

    OK, so when is the fake hamstring injury coming? I’ll guess 3rd at bat tonight.