The Shape of Things to Come
Wed, May 7, 2008
by Geoff Young
Top of the ninth, two on, one out. Adrian Gonzalez steps to the plate. Braves manager Bobby Cox summons ex-Padre Royce Ring, who promptly hangs a breaking ball. Gonzalez swats it high and deep down the right-field line. He, catcher Brian McCann, and plate umpire Wally Bell all watch as it sails into the Atlanta night… just foul for strike one.
Ring proceeds to fan Gonzalez. After a pitching change, Kevin Kouzmanoff lofts a harmless fly ball to center, into the waiting glove of another ex-Padre, Mark Kotsay. Game over. The Padres lose again.
That’s the season in a nutshell so far. The Padres play poorly, and then, when they get opportunity, it fizzles… or misses by a few feet, whatever.
I’m not prepared to give up on the season. Maybe it’s a reflection on how well the Padres have played since moving to Petco Park, or maybe it’s just my own stubbornness, but I refuse to believe that these next 129 games should serve merely as an audition for 2009. This seems too much like panic to me, and I don’t like making decisions based on fear.
That said, changes are needed. And from what I hear, they are a-comin’, possibly as early as this weekend. Some of these are already rumored to be in the works and have been discussed in the comments, but here are a few moves I’d like to see made to improve the Padres for this year and give them a better chance to compete right now:
- Use Colt Morton or find a backup catcher that Bud Black trusts and is willing to pencil into the lineup twice a week. Josh Bard’s fumes are running on fumes, and his entire game is suffering for it. Bard is a solid big-league catcher, but you’d never know it from watching him the past few weeks. Black needs to get him more rest. Say what you will about Bruce Bochy’s in-game tactics, the guy knew how to utilize his bench. This would not have happened under Bochy’s watch.
- Offer Callix Crabbe back to the Brewers and get a real utility player. Crabbe is a second baseman with decent on-base skills masquerading as a jack-of-all-trades. He isn’t the second coming of Bip Roberts, and he isn’t a legitimate option at shortstop — the fact that he hadn’t played an inning at the position since 2003 in the Midwest League should have been a clue, but apparently not. Who takes Crabbe’s place? Oscar Robles? Oops, the Phillies claimed him off waivers. Luis Rodriguez? Oops, he’s on the disabled list. Sean Kazmar? Well, he can play shortstop but he’s hitting .179/.273/.253 at Double-A. I never thought I’d utter these words, but I actually kinda miss Geoff Blum.
- Release Jim Edmonds and try someone else in center. I don’t really care who — Scott Hairston, Jody Gerut, Chip Ambres, Will Venable if he’s healthy. Heck, even Drew Macias wouldn’t be terrible, which is more than can be said for Edmonds. Bringing in the veteran on the cheap was a nice idea, but this is less Mike Piazza/Greg Maddux and more David Wells (Second Edition). When the Padres picked up Edmonds I figured that his bat — with the possible exception of residual on-base skills — was done but that he might have value defensively in center field. Well, he doesn’t. So now the Padres are starting a no-glove, no-hit guy at a key position and batting him fifth. That’s an outstanding way to lose ballgames.
- Remove Justin Germano from the rotation. His smoke-and-mirrors act isn’t fooling anyone. The Padres have plenty of internal options to replace Germano. None is particularly exciting, but I’m prepared to accept “passable” right now. Clay Hensley has suffered a setback in his rehab and Mark Prior… well, who knows what he’s doing. On the big club, Wil Ledezma is pumping mid-90s octane from the left side in garbage time. How well will his success in meaningless situations translate to a starting role? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t mind finding out. Other possibilities include Josh Geer (a Germano clone, less the detailed scouting reports against him), Cesar Ramos (a lefty version of Geer), and Shawn “I Was Good in ‘97″ Estes. So, yeah, let’s try Ledezma.
- Keep Joe Thatcher out of crucial situations until he figures out what he’s doing. Make him the long man or, better, send him back to Triple-A and bring up someone else from Portland — perhaps Dirk Hayhurst (3.48 ERA, 11.76 K/9, .213 BAA in 20.2 IP).
- Lose Glendon Rusch. I have no explanation for his continued presence on the roster. Honestly, I’d rather see his spot occupied by a position player. One of my few criticisms of Black as a manager is his insistence on carrying seven arms in the bullpen and concurrent refusal to trust more than four or five of them. If the guys at the back of the line can’t be relied upon to perform their duties, then they don’t belong in the big leagues.
I’m also wondering a bit about the coaching staff. The Padres’ baserunning has been atrocious this year. Some of this can be blamed on a general lack of speed, but even slow guys can run the bases intelligently. I don’t know who or what is at the root of the Pads’ recklessness on the bases, but if I’m third-base coach Glenn Hoffman, I’m not feeling real comfortable right about now.
Same goes for Wally Joyner. This team has a recent history of axing its hitting coaches, and both Dave Magadan and Merv Rettenmund were getting much more out of their charges when they were let go. The fact that Joyner and Kevin Towers were college teammates could complicate matters, but they’ve been in the business long enough to know how it works.
There are a bunch of trade rumors floating around as well, but it’s hard to separate the wheat from the chaff, so we won’t go there. That and I’m out of breath. Stay tuned…
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May 7, 2008 at 8:22 am
I agree 100% with all of your moves GY and I think most of them may happen by the end of the weekend!
May 7, 2008 at 8:28 am
#1@Steve C: Echo that completely. I think that one of Black’s biggest problems has been his refusal to use other catchers and his insistence on the extra arms. I wouldn’t mind giving up on the season so long as it means I get to watch some new kids. That would be damn exciting.
May 7, 2008 at 8:29 am
Agree as well. I’m about 20 days away from giving up on the season though - unless we go about 15-2 over the next 17 games, I’m ready to pack it in. Truthfully, it’s for my own benefit - I just don’t enjoy watching this team and I would prefer to see some young guys get a shot who may give me something to look forward to.
May 7, 2008 at 8:33 am
Cubs shoot down Greene for Pie rumor:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....-rumo.html
May 7, 2008 at 8:40 am
#4@Steve C: Well, we have other players they might like. Maddux, Wolf, Bell, maybe even OG as you suggested.
Baseball America has a new draft tracker up, and I believe everyone can see it:
http://tinyurl.com/5z6eu7
May 7, 2008 at 8:54 am
There’s been little talk of how poorly our bullpen has been managed, but it is another issue. When will Bud Black realize that a 1 run deficit is a high leverage situation and the like of Glendon Rusch shouldn’t be in there?
May 7, 2008 at 9:05 am
But what about some offense, GY? Greene had 4 SOs last night and Joyner can’t reach him, nobody can. Edmunds, horrible, kouz horrible, etc etc.
Should we have faith that the bats will return? And the Atl is a good place to hit. Friday, the fellas return to the Graveyard.
Your changes do nothing for our biggest problem, no bats. But I don’t have any better ideas, so there you go.
It is what it is.
May 7, 2008 at 9:09 am
#7@PM: Kouz and Khalil have something of a track record of success. Khalil, though frustrating with how much he Ks, has a better track record than he’s playing this year.
I beleive that Kouz is also better than he’s played. I think the Kouz we saw May 07 - Oct 07 was more in line with what we can expect.
I wrote a post on this at GLB yesterday, but the fact of the matter is that our team (which is mostly unchanged from last year), is not playing even at their career averages. They are consistenly underperforming. Is it fair to blame the FO for failing to predict this drop off?
May 7, 2008 at 9:09 am
#7@PM: Where can they get a bat from? They have little to trade and the only player they have in AAA who may make a difference is Guret.
May 7, 2008 at 9:10 am
oops, tied with the Rockies at 12-21. What a showdown for Friday.
May 7, 2008 at 9:10 am
Dirk Hayhurst of Non-Prospect Diary fame? Awesome, I didn’t know he was doing so well in Portland this year, bring him up!
May 7, 2008 at 9:17 am
Love Kouz, love his approach at the plate, maybe too aggessive at times but he can really drive the ball. He’s a keeper. Greene, well, nice SS, fan favorite (if your a 15 year old girl), but going backyards at the plate.
Steve, that is my point I think, there are no bats as you say so KT can make changes but expect the same. We will play better no doubt but its looking like a 500 season will be a success.
Remember those days, long ago, when getting to 500 was a successful season. How winning changes your expectations.
May 7, 2008 at 9:19 am
#8@Phantom: We can’t blame the front office for the players having sub par years but what you can blame them for is the following:
1. Having a farm system that is not ready to bear any fruit to fill in for guys when they are struggling.
2. Having a rule 5 player as your only IF back up.
3. Taking a cheap risk on Edmonds and not having a backup plan.
4. Filling the lineup full of average player at best and crossing their fingers that all of them will have career average years.
No one expected the team to be this bad but we all knew that this team really not on par with AZ and LA.
May 7, 2008 at 9:23 am
#12@PM: “Remember those days, long ago, when getting to 500 was a successful season. How winning changes your expectations.”
The FO has said several times that they are going to be competitive every year, which to be fair they have been up until now but when you make that promise to the fans you have to expect them to expect you to deliver on it.
May 7, 2008 at 9:26 am
#11@Flash: I know Kevin Cameron is going on the DL so maybe Dirk could get the call today. He is one of those guys with a rubber arm that could pitch everyday. Black doesn’t like to play rookies, though.
If I remember correctly, if someone was called up from the minors while Bochy was the manager, he would throw them into the fire right away.
I agree with GY. Bochy was excellent at utilizing his bench. Maybe Black doesn’t have the same versatile players, but it’s obvious that the guy does not have faith in half of his bullpen and 3 or 4 guys off the bench. Maybe he and KT are not on the same page when it comes to evaluating players and who should and who shouldn’t be on the roster.
May 7, 2008 at 9:30 am
I blame the front office for essentially screwing up every draft from 1999 - 2004. Six years of drafting nets us Peavy, Kouz (traded for Barfield), Nady and Greene. Are you serious? Does any team in the major leagues have a track record that bad? We didn’t even get any borderline / fringe type guys who can fill in at the major league level.
I look at that and I have to give Towers some credit - it’s amazing tha we were competitive the last four years.
May 7, 2008 at 9:34 am
#15@JMAR: Huh? Black doesn’t play rookies but Bochy did? Do you remember Nady? Or what about Kouz? Do you think Bochy would have given him the long leash that Black did last year?
How soon some of us forget. . .
May 7, 2008 at 9:47 am
#13@Steve C: I completely agree about the farm system. I completely disagree about your fourth point.
When you build a team, you look at what players have done in the past as a way to estimate what they’ll do in the future. Thus far this season, the ONLY person playing like his history would suggest is Adrian. Giles, maybe.
The rest of the team is significantly underplaying even moderate expectations based on their history. Bard, Greene, and Edmonds have been atrocious at the plate this year. We knew that Edmonds was going to be bad, but I don’t think many expected him to be quite this bad. Khalil is maddeningly frustrating when he’s on, and he has shown none of the power that he flashed last year. Bard has historically been a reliable hitter who consistently has good PAs, and that has completely disappeared this year.
People like Hairston and Kouz didn’t have much of a MLB track record we could use as predictors. Given their performance last year vs. their performance this year, they’re underperforming. Iguchi is playing under his career average.
The team should absolutely be criticized for not having a farm system ready for disaster. But there’s no way they should be blamed for failing to predict the utter implosion of the team.
May 7, 2008 at 9:47 am
I wouldn’t go so far as to say Bochy knew how to use his bench. His pattern wasn’t much different from Black’s 2007 - a Sunday lineup full of backups, a lot of time given to gritty types.
The big difference this year has been Black running Bard out there almost every inning. He’s given Edmonds a lot of chances, but it’s easier for us to say that he’s done than for Black to know that he’s done.
Still should have pinch-hit for him against a LHP last night. Jimmy looked like he’d rather be anywhere but in that batter’s box.
May 7, 2008 at 9:49 am
GY, I think a couple of my posts have disappeared. One of them had a tiny url link to a Baseball America draft tracker story.
May 7, 2008 at 9:50 am
Maybe this has been covered before, but I think it’s pretty clear the Padres were counting on bringing back Milton Bradley - pray he stays healthy - and plugging him in CF for April. Then returnee Mike Cameron would take over and scoot Bradley over to LF. Hairston would back up Bradley for the inevitable 30-50 games. None of that happened, maybe shocking the FO, and it’s like “uh, darn, what do we do?”
Checked MB’s stats right now: .305/.398./.476. True, that’s in Texas. Dunno what his splits are, although it’s early.
May 7, 2008 at 9:51 am
#17@BigWorm: I was referring more to his bullpen and bench but Nady had 371 at bats his rookie season. Sean Burroughs was a starter his rookie season. So was Josh Barfield.
Boch was definitely more comfortable with his veteran players but if he had a young guy sitting on his bench or bullpen, they were going to play. Not sit and watch until garbage time.
May 7, 2008 at 9:56 am
People have hit on it perfectly — the organization’s failings have been in the draft and player development.
1. We take absolutely zero financial risks in the draft anymore. Our last couple have been Mat Latos and before that Jake Peavy. It’s not just first round risks on players who drop from signing demands — it is grabbing third round talentes headed to college in the 10th plus and paying enough to get them to sign.
The Matt Bush pick — not Bush himself but the actual way they went around it — is purely indicative of how scared this team is to commit money to the draft when it is the only strategy by which the Padres can compete long term.
2. We’ve had horrible injury issues in the draft. Some of that may be how many pitchers we draft, but we’ve lost Carillo, Stauffer and Schmidt to almost immediate injuries. That may be bad luck or something systematic. Either way, it isn’t helping.
3. We have no surprise quality players really since Peavy at the major league level being developed in our system. I don’t know if it is because we draft so little upside or because he can’t develop guys, but the few players who have made an impact that spent any time in our system are all high picks anyway. It’s probably a combination of lack of drafting upside and a lack of effective development.
May 7, 2008 at 9:57 am
#7@PM: We’ve covered this:
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....-size.html
#10@PM: On the bright side, at least we don’t have a league title to defend.
#16@BigWorm: Yeah, those drafts were a problem, which is why changes were implemented. We’re still not where we need to be, but we’re getting there.
#19@Tom Waits: Bochy generally did a good job of getting his backups regular work.
May 7, 2008 at 10:01 am
#18@Phantom:
Here is my point
Giles: Average leadoff hitter but does not have the speed to make his on base skills effective.
Iguchie: Below average career hitter who was coming off a good late season run with the Phillies.
A-Gon: Good player no complaints
Kouz: had a good season last year but is still a bit unknown but not a clean-up guy at this point in his career.
Edmonds: was on the decline and was coming off 2 injury plagued seasons and there was no backup plan.
Bard: solid catcher and this would have worked out will if Barrett was healthy and was playing 30 to 40% of the time.
Greene: You can’t expect much from the SS position anywys so anyhitng Greenie does at the plate is gravy.
Hairston: had a good run late last season but was not a proven every day player and the pads had not backup plan.
The padres filled the lineup with a lot of risky choices and they did not hit on any of them. The only consistent hitter with a good track record in the group is Adrian. Giles is a consistent hitter but like I said his on base skills are negated by his lack of speed and lack of consistent hitter behind him.
May 7, 2008 at 10:04 am
#21@Stephen: Thats why you can’t put all of your eggs in one basket.
May 7, 2008 at 10:07 am
#24@Geoff Young: I’d say there’s a difference between getting your backups regular work and making effective use of your bench. A lot of it depends on who’s on that bench.
With a catcher, it’s so demanding that you have to cycle in the second stringer regularly even when he stinks. And Black did a lot better job of that last year. But Bochy would sometimes “get guys work” when the regulars didn’t seem to be overworked and when the backups killed us.
Not saying Black has been great at it; he ran Agon ragged last year. But Bochy’s methods wouldn’t necessarily have led to more wins. Black has so far avoided doing anything as dumb as Sprague or Ojeda in the outfield.
May 7, 2008 at 10:09 am
#21@Stephen: The only trouble with sticking Bradley in CF for April is that he barely was able to play the field at all last month. He started five games on the corners but spent the rest of his time at DH. I’d give a lot to have Bradley’s bat back in the lineup, but he wasn’t an option for CF to begin the season, if at all.
May 7, 2008 at 10:13 am
#28@Geoff Young: Agree. The laments for Bradley and Cameron ignore that April would have been April with them. Our corner OF, where Bradley fits, haven’t been the problem.
Besides, it’s six weeks. Odds are that Jenga will miss a lot of time this summer.
May 7, 2008 at 10:15 am
#28@Geoff Young:
Oops (red face).
May 7, 2008 at 10:15 am
It is games like last nite that keep A Gonzalez from being considered among the top tier in the NL, not Petco Park. Down by 2, with 2 on, 1 out, 9th inning, and your best player at the plate. That is what you want to see. Here is your chance to show what you’re made of. Even a single plates a run and leaves 2 on for Kouz, the second-best hitter (according to BA, and before Giles’s outburst last nite) on the team. No, ANOTHER strike out. 3 on the nite.
May 7, 2008 at 10:18 am
#31@Geoff B: He’s taking some awkward swings recently, even though he’s hitting well. Wonder if he’s trying to do too much because the rest of the team has been so bad or if its the same mediocre plate discipline he’s shown in his pro career.
May 7, 2008 at 10:19 am
Every one of your takes is dead-on GY and it’s kind of depressing that there are 6 of them.
#12@Steve C: I think the Padres farm system is ready to bear fruit. It’s unfortunate that Headley, Antonelli, Hundley, and Leblanc have all gotten off to slow starts and Venable got injured. But for the first time in years, there are actually guys in AAA that should be able to improve this ballclub.
#22@Alan: I’m not sure it’s the FO’s fault that more money isn’t spent on the draft, I imagine Moores has the final word on whether to pay over slot. Sorry to go logic games on you, but it might be Sandy Alderson playing prisoner’s dilemma and refusing to defect because he knows the Padres wouldn’t be able to hang with the big-spending teams if the slotting system broke down. Either way, from the sound of it, hoping the Padres will pay over slot is about as futile as hoping they’ll sign a big FA.
May 7, 2008 at 10:19 am
#31@Geoff B:
Disappointing, of course, but I’m not going to bitch about Gonzalez right now.
May 7, 2008 at 10:20 am
#29@Tom Waits: Agree completely. I hope that he has a healthy season, but neither Bradley nor Cameron would have helped us out in CF this April.
I still think we need to pursue a young fast guy à la Reggie Willits or TG Jr.
May 7, 2008 at 10:22 am
#33@FriarFanDan: If a smart, analytical, forceful person like Alderson can’t convince Moores that the slotting system doesn’t benefit the Padres, he’s not nearly as smart, analytical, or forceful as we think.
The entire organization is geared towards avoiding risk, and Alderson runs the organization. He didn’t leave the commissioner’s office to be a yes-man for Moores.
May 7, 2008 at 10:25 am
22. That is not true. Bochy kept Nady on the bench for long periods of time while we got to watch players like Terrence Long and others. He was horrible with young position players. Also the only reason he played young guys such as Khalil and Barfield is when the front office took away all of his other options. Do you remember once he got Todd Walker Barfield started to become a platoon player?
I agree with you on the bullpen, but I will take Black anyday over Bochy.
May 7, 2008 at 10:28 am
I would like to take all the blame for KG’s output so far this season…I posted and have said that he looked better at the end of last year and I was ready to eat crow.
Instead, he has made even more outs than before…
I humbly offer my apology and will go back to full blown dislike of KG.
May 7, 2008 at 10:30 am
#25@Steve C: I don’t think a guy’s lack of speed negates his on base skills. Speed might enhance them, but lack of speed doesn’t negate them. Nor do I think you can hold it against him that the guys behind him haven’t gotten him home. He’s not making outs and he’s providing the guys behind him with RBI opportunities, that’s a good thing. There’s not many guys that get on base with his frequency and also have the kind of speed to really make a difference. With the Padres limited budget, you’re probably going to have to take one or the other, I’d take on base skills every time.
May 7, 2008 at 10:31 am
33. I just was in Portland, there are some good players but most of them - with the possible exception of Headley and maybe Josh Geer are not ready to help until next year. Estes and Gerut are, but I really don’t see them as “prospects”.
One thing a lot of people have discussed on this board - and I was initially against it, but I’m I think they are right on point - is the Padres going cheap in the draft. Last year they, and to be fair about 26 other teams wouldn’t spend the money to sign top pitcher Rick Porcello - for an MLB contract and $7 million and change.
After watching this year as the team flushes $9 million down the toilet on Edmunds and Barret - maybe that wouldn’t have been such a bad investment after all.
The AZ Diamondbacks have had success through the draft mainly by not being afraid to take players like Drew, Upton and Scherzer - who were represented by agents like Boras - and paid the money.
May 7, 2008 at 10:33 am
#39@FriarFanDan: Padres are 4th in MLB for OBP out of the leadoff spot.
May 7, 2008 at 10:33 am
#40@John Conniff: I may be wrong on this, but the Pads have not been very afraid of Boras in the past, just afraid to go over slot the last couple of years. The most vivid example was drafting Nady…
May 7, 2008 at 10:37 am
#36@Tom Waits: Following budgetary restraints doesn’t make him a yes-man. Paying over slot only benefits the Padres if everyone else is paying slot. If the slotting system breaks down then the draft will turn into a FA market and low-spending teams like the Padres will suffer. I’d like it if they paid over slot occasionally, but the theory behind paying slot is sound.
May 7, 2008 at 10:38 am
#39@FriarFanDan: I said that it was lack of speed and lack of hitters behind him that negated his OBP skills.
Lack of speed does hurt because once he is on it is hard to move him over. If he was speedy he may be able to steel second and make it home on a single to right. but as it stand now the Pads have to get 2 or three hits to get him in and with this lineup those kind of rallies are rare.
May 7, 2008 at 10:45 am
42. Maybe I shouldn’t have written “afraid”, but they seem unwilling to pay big bucks for young guys with high ceilings. Also since Nady I can’t recall when they have dealt with him. Maybe the drafts of players like Mark Phillips and Ben Davis have convinced them that risk is greater than the reward.
The more I think about it - especially as someone who follows the minors - is it sure would be nice to think about Porcello and Latos in Fort Wayne right now.
May 7, 2008 at 10:45 am
#44@Steve C: I think the inability to get a couple of hits or one big one, is a much bigger issue than OG’s ability to get on base more often than almost every other leadoff hitter, but not steal 2nd. I’m just trying to say OG isn’t the problem, he’s one of the few bright spots
May 7, 2008 at 10:47 am
#45@John Conniff: Could this strategy of low risk/low reward be to fill out the farm system? Then start picking the occasional high risk/high reward guy in 2009 and beyond? Or do you think low risk/low reward is the Padres permanent drafting strategy?
May 7, 2008 at 10:48 am
#27@Tom Waits: Yes, that’s a good distinction to make. My underlying issue with Black is that through his use of Morton, Crabbe, Ledezma, and Rusch, he’s effectively turned a 25-man roster into a 21-man roster.
May 7, 2008 at 10:53 am
#47@FriarFanDan: I thought that at first but now im thinking that the FO knew that they would need to start producing players out of the farm system quickley because of the lack of depth on the roster so they picked more mature, polished college players that would only take 2 to 3 years to develop instead of high risk high school players who are a bit more raw and may take 4 to 5 years to develop.
May 7, 2008 at 10:55 am
#9@Steve C: There’s more than Gerut. Chip Ambres, Will Venable, Edgar Gonzalez, Brian Myrow all could help at the ML Level.
May 7, 2008 at 10:59 am
#43@FriarFanDan: Less than half of teams are paying slot now. It hurts smaller-market teams MORE, because the difference between an expensive draft and a cheap one is Michael Barret’s 2008 salary. The Tigers benefited from going over slot even though 15 other teams did, too. It’s one of the only talent pools where the resources are basically equal and the asking price isn’t exponentially different.
It’s a capitalist economy, and John Moores hasn’t been shy about his capitalist ability to profit from redevelopment. Why should a group of multimillionaires and billionaires be able to artificially restrict what players are paid?
Alderson doesn’t have to accept that the budget constraints are set it stoneforever. It’s not a difficult argument to make if he wanted to make it. Their adherence to slot is a big reason that 2008 looks so bleak. A small investment (6-10 million over the last 4 years) they would have a LOT more minor league talent.
#47@FriarFanDan: Permanent as long as the current ownership / management group remain intact. People talk about “filling out the farm system” as if marginal major leaguers and AAAA players have much value.
May 7, 2008 at 11:07 am
#50@Rain Delay: But will any of them provide an impact? Yes they could all play at the Major League level but would they make it in the dodgers, rockes or D-Backs lineup?
I’m not saying that those guys would not be an improvement over whats there now im just saying that none of those guys would provide another consisten 100 OPS+ bad in this line up.
May 7, 2008 at 11:11 am
I feel like there were a couple more draft picks like Nady for SD. Wasn’t Tagg Bozied in the same situation? Not that he worked out.
May 7, 2008 at 11:11 am
#43@FriarFanDan: By not being a yes-man, I mean that Alderson was brought in to ACTIVELY manage the baseball operation. He’s not just implementing policy. He can make policy. If Moores needs convincing, Alderson is the guy to do it. But he has to want to do it.
May 7, 2008 at 11:13 am
The fact that Brian Giles is a bright spot right now is a great reason to trade him, now. He’s expensive, not a long-term solution, a defensive minus, a mediocre baserunner. He’s a great OBP guy and could really help a team like the Indians, for example, or maybe the Mets. Why not get rid of him while he’s still valuable?
The bravest thing the front office could do is recognize that this team as presently constituted cannot compete with Arizona or LA or STL or the Cubs or etc. etc. etc. They could reasonably finish in third, and maybe in second if one of the two front runners collapse. But they don’t have a roster that can believably win the Wild Card, so why not save money and add talent?
May 7, 2008 at 11:13 am
#54@Tom Waits: Alderson owns part of the team as well so you would figure he would want to spend less in FA and more on the draft…unless the ultimate plan is to just spend less on both.
May 7, 2008 at 11:18 am
Not sure if anyone has discussed this, but I feel like you need to trade Chris Young. It’s seeming more and more like he might be a product of the ballpark and his height. If he’s not perfect with location, which he hasn’t been pretty much all of this year, he’s average at best.
I would think his value around the league as a good #2 starter would get a decent load of prospects, maybe similar to what Haren brought to the As.
Especially when you can typically find a guy like Randy Wolf every year and see him be successful in PETCO.
May 7, 2008 at 11:18 am
47. I don’t think I could have written it better than what Tom just did - which I agree with (51). Depth is great, but I’ll take what the Reds have - four players that can potenitally help a MLB team - Bruce, Votto, Cueto and Baily - over a bunch of very good players that profile as 4th OFs or utility.
53. Bozied was taken the year after Nady - in 2001.
May 7, 2008 at 11:21 am
#57@Gracie: Padres won’t trade Young until the deadline (if at all) im not totaly against the move but once they move him it will show that they have completely given up on the season.
May 7, 2008 at 11:21 am
But if I remember right, Bozied slipped b/c of money demands.
May 7, 2008 at 11:22 am
I agree, but I hate waiting until the deadline when you force yourself into “the best deal” available. I feel like you can do better when you give yourself time to make the best deal for your team.
May 7, 2008 at 11:23 am
#60@Gracie: He did slip and he was a Boras client. He didn’t sign after his junior year and didn’t have a lot of leverage when we popped him. Good value signing.
May 7, 2008 at 11:23 am
Maybe we could get John Butler (RIP) and A.J. Smith handle our draft too. They do/did a great job with the chargers.
May 7, 2008 at 11:24 am
#52@Steve C: My thinking is this, who cares about the Rockies, Dodgers or Snakes line ups. Right now, the focus needs to be on the Pads. Anyone will tell you that, worrying about if you’re guys would/could fit into those line ups is futile. Yes, they’re division rivals. But at the moment, you can’t worry about what they’re doing. If you’re in a spin, you need to worry about righting your ship - not what the other guy is doing.
If you keep doing that, you’re going to find yourself in a bigger hole than you’re in now. I’m not a Pads fan, I’m a Braves fan. But my job allows me to attend Beavers games - actually that is my job. The names I mentioned would all be upgrades to whats going on now - Well Myrow would have to come off the bench, as he’s blocked by AGon. But Ambres, Venable, Gerut would be a positive upgrade in the the Pads outfield. Venable I don’t think is a 100% right now, as he is off the DL but only DHing when it’s allowed - pinch hitting other wise.
Just my 2 cents. Maybe I’m just talking out my butt….
May 7, 2008 at 11:25 am
I was just poking around Baseball Prospecuts and found that our team’s offense has generated a NEGATIVE VORP thusfar this year (-3.4). That’s right, 4-A hacks would be better than this offense. Just reading that gives me a headache…
May 7, 2008 at 11:26 am
#61@Gracie: Yes and no, teams are not sure where they stand yet as far as division races go, if its late june and a team is 2 games out of first and CY can push them over the hump they may get desperate and give up alot for him. The padres have an advantage because they don’t have to trade him he is cheap and locked up for a few more years so if they keep him he can still help the team.
May 7, 2008 at 11:26 am
#65@Bryan S: *Prospectus
May 7, 2008 at 11:27 am
#64@Rain Delay: That’s pretty optimistic. We’ve seen lots of young prospects and/or aged prospects with good AAA numbers come up and do not much in the majors. Is anyone confident that Venable will “really” be better than Hairston or McAnulty with only five weeks of AAA at-bats?
They may very well be better, but we’re probably looking at incremental improvements.
May 7, 2008 at 11:28 am
#64@Rain Delay: Oh, THAT’S what I smell!
May 7, 2008 at 11:29 am
#68@Tom Waits: exactly my point.
May 7, 2008 at 11:35 am
#68@Tom Waits: Well I think I’d go with Ambres or Gerut first. You’d wanna make sure Venable is 100% of course. But Gerut or Ambres on the other hand..I think they could do the job and do it better.#69@Tom Waits: Har Har Har
May 7, 2008 at 11:35 am
#55@UC Michael:
Remind me again. Are there charts somewhere that show OG is a minus in the field and a mediocre baserunner? Is it simply because he is not fast?
May 7, 2008 at 11:35 am
Geoff, I think you are on the mark in your commentary.
Couple of things ~ Craig Stansberry also seems to be picking it up, so perhaps he would be a better alternative than Crabbe. Also, I am excited about the performance of Wil Venable.
Again - look at the Texas Rangers German Duran and Brandon Boggs –did not Antonelli and Headley perform at the same level or above last year but now both contribute at the major league level. Was Antonelli mismanaged this off season ?
May 7, 2008 at 11:36 am
#70@Steve C: To elaborate….how many of us said “Iguchi can’t be any worse than NOG?” Or “Kouzmanoff can’t be cold in April againt?” Or going back a ways, “Randa is guaranteed to hit more than Burroughs?”
Just because one player is doing poorly doesn’t automatically mean that another player will be an improvement.
May 7, 2008 at 11:39 am
#68@Tom Waits: I wouldn’t be surprised if Venable performs better than McAnulty in every phase of the game. Right now. Today.
May 7, 2008 at 11:39 am
#72@Stephen: Agree. I’ve always seen Giles described as a good baserunner, deadly on breaking up the dp, knows when to take the extra bag.
#71@Rain Delay: Agree that they COULD, not that they WILL.
May 7, 2008 at 11:39 am
#61 - You have to have confidence that CY won’t destroy his value by continuing to badly underperform. It’s quite a balancing act.
May 7, 2008 at 11:44 am
#75@JP:
McAnulty outhit Venable at every level. He’s had a lot more experience against higher level competition. Venable is probably a better defender at getting to balls, somewhat negated by his arm. Even his “hot” start to 2008 isn’t all that good: 801 OPS, a terrible 1/14 BB/K rate, 0 HR.
You’re certainly entitled to think what you will, but I’d ask…why? What reasons are there except that McAnulty is here, on a struggling big league club (but actually contributing offensively) while Venable, being distant and less well-known, is on the green side of the fence?
May 7, 2008 at 11:52 am
#78@Tom Waits: That doesn’t mean I think it’s impossible for Venable to come up and hit great, but he looks a lot like an average bat playing average corner defense or below-average CF defense.
May 7, 2008 at 12:04 pm
#57@Gracie: I’m not opposed to the idea of trading CY assuming we can get something of value in return. He isn’t entirely a product of Petco Park, though. Here are his home/road splits since joining the Padres:
home: 191 IP, 3.02 ERA, 8.53 K/9
road: 201 IP, 3.76 ERA, 8.37 K/9
Yeah, he’s better at Petco, but the split isn’t much more severe than Peavy’s:
home: 474.2 IP, 2.73 ERA, 10.11 K/9
road: 369 IP, 3.17 ERA, 8.71 K/9
CY is relatively young and he has a good contract. Guys like that should be seriously coveted and fetch a lot in trade, if the Padres want to go that route.
#73@JP: Antonelli is 23 years old and at Triple-A. He’s gotten off to a slow start, but I don’t see any evidence of mismanagment here.
May 7, 2008 at 12:05 pm
Maybe Buddy can learn a lesson from Bobby Cox last night. Thats how you use a bullpen. The reliever doesnt need to finish an inning!
May 7, 2008 at 12:09 pm
#78@Tom Waits: McAnulty hasn’t performed well since 2006. Let’s see what 2008 brings (if he is even on the roster in this organization) . So far, what I find especially disconcerting is PMAC’s baserunning speed and also his basepath decisions and instincts are brutal. Not to mention, his outfield defense is below average at best.
One thing for sure and I will concede, both Venable and PMAC are not what you would consider “young” prospects.
May 7, 2008 at 12:11 pm
#82@JP: P-Mac was hurt in 07 and did not get back on track right away.
May 7, 2008 at 12:14 pm
#80@Geoff Young: Did they not put to much pressure on the kid instead of letting him fly a bit under the radar.
Geoff, the whole idea of bring Antonelli in here, in a much publicized “audition” for centerfield in December .. was this not a bit over the top and perhaps serving to confuse or put undo pressure on the young man ? Not to mention, the organization spinning him in the media to be the next phenom, instead of, again, being more patient with him.
May 7, 2008 at 12:17 pm
#83@Steve C: Oh well, the clock keeps ticking and the game is full of guys who are banged up but still get the job done (ig-Brian Giles down the stretch in 2007).
PMAC had 300 PA’s w/Portland last year and was not impressive in the slightest. Are we going to totally attribute this sub par year to his injuries ? Time will tell.
May 7, 2008 at 12:25 pm
Venable hasn’t been in the outfield since April 12 because of shoulder problems, so that isn’t really an option.
Also he isn’t close to the hitter that PMAC was in the minors.
May 7, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Wow, Geoff Young is fed up. The Padres must really sucks right now.
The thing the Padres can do right away is fix the roster and lineup to improve the chance ever so slightly of winning games by limiting the outs given away by bats and shoddy pitching.
Cut Crabbe, Edmonds and Rusch right away to take those players out of Bud Black’s hands. Force Bud to start Colt Morton two days in a row to give Bard a rest right now (it’s probably going to suck with the starting pitchers but Bard really needs some time off) and then, have Morton start 2 games a week until Barrett comes back.
Start Hairston at CF, P-Mac/Gerut at LF platoon, move Khalil down to #7/8 slot (his OBP skill is really terrible and it’s not even worth swapping with the pitcher’s spot). Bring up Jody Gerut and see what he can do at CF/RF because OG isn’t going to play everyday, and Stansberry to relieve Khalil and Iguchi (he can’t be worse than Silent L there) with the caveat to use him at least once a week not counting pinch running duty whenever Tony Clark gets on base when he PHs. Heck, bring up Myrow, he can relieve El Hombre and PH too, or start in LF (even Silent L got a start there - the horror).
Not much of an upside but can be better than all the out machines we are having right now (at the plate and on the field). Germano is the mop-up guy for now until he gets sent down or away. I guess developing movement on one’s pitches is hard to do, right? Where in the world is Justin Hampson?
Looking forward to seeing Dirk Hayhurst up here.
May 7, 2008 at 12:30 pm
#86@John Conniff: Isn’t close to the hitter PMAC was in the minors ? May be a case of “what have you done for me lately”?
Venable’s 2007 was somewhat disappointing but PMAC’s 2007 was a step back for the guy.
May 7, 2008 at 12:39 pm
88. I know it sounds like an excuse, but there are also reasons, McAnulty was hurt. Its hard to take a step back when you shouldn’t be on the field.
And no, a .770 career OPS even with PMAC’s bad year included isn’t close to his .874.
From what I understand Venable was playing a decent CF in Portland, but he looked really bad in CF when I saw him in San Antonio last year. I’m still amazed that he played as well as he did in RF there with his arm.
He made a huge jump from Fort Wayne to San Antonio, but you’re still talking about someone with a slugging percentage of .373.
He looks much better at the plate this year - in the pinch hitting assignments that I saw, but I still don’t see him as being better than anyone on the Padres’ roster right now.
May 7, 2008 at 12:45 pm
#82@JP: Venable’s last good year, also 2006. McAnulty has a career 874 OPS in the minors. Right now he’s an average major league hitter. His baserunning mistakes so far, by my count, equal one out. Is it smart to promote Venable when he’s getting over an injury, isn’t setting AAA on fire, and struggled badly in AA last season? I like Venable as a prospect, but if you’re trying to build for 2009, at least let him have half a year in Triple A. He’s a lot more valuable if he can play a passable CF, and it’s easier to learn that in the PCL than the majors.
#88@JP: That’s also true of Venable. He had a solid 2006 in low A and struggled badly in AA. Are we going to totally attribute that to jumping one level of A ball?
#84@JP: Media pressure or hype in San Diego? It was a couple of stories in the local paper. Tons of prospects struggle every year, are they all mismanaged? A couple of young guys surviving for the Rangers proves that a couple of young guys are surviving for the Rangers, nothing more.
#87@Didi: I’d probably platoon Hairston with PMac and Gerut, since they’re both LH hitters. But otherwise those are all smart moves that don’t hurt us.
May 7, 2008 at 12:47 pm
#87@Didi:
#90@Tom Waits:
“otherwise those are all smart moves.”
Sorry, that sounds condescending, which wasn’t my intent.
May 7, 2008 at 12:50 pm
#51@Tom Waits: I agree the Padres could benefit by paying over slot while the slotting system is in place. But the fact remains that if the slotting system ends, it will be small market teams like the Padres that suffer. Big market teams will simply tell players, “we’ll draft you in the 4th round and pay you more than the small market teams can afford to pay you if they take you in the first round.” It may not be fair to the players, but the slotting system is the one equalizer small market teams have in the absence of a salary cap. The effect of the slotting system is reduced by teams paying over slot, but it would be eliminated if all teams disregarded the slotting system. It is more likely that Sandy Alderson is considering this or something else, rather than he’s just been fooling everybody all along and he’s really an idiot.
Filling out the minors can mean selecting guys that have a relatively greater chance of not flaming out, but a relatively lesser chance of being ML stars. When you have no farm system to speak of, this may be a good strategy to implement until you get to the point where you’re only promoting guys based on merit. Then you can afford to pick up some guys that are more likely to flame out, but also more likely to become stars. It’s similar to assembling a retirement portfolio of low volatility stocks so you have safety and stability, before throwing in some high volatility stocks for the big moneymaking possibility. The FO may not be implementing this strategy properly or maybe it’s not the best strategy, but it’s definitely a legitimate strategy.
May 7, 2008 at 12:52 pm
#89@John Conniff: I’m not convinced at all in Venable’s ability to play CF or even RF. OG gets by in right because his experience outweighs his weak arm, sort of like Gwynn in his later days.
Gun to my head, Venable looks like a peak 280/360/430 hitter, 15 HR, with above-average defense in LF and some speed. Milton Bradley with less power, less propensity (hopefully) to get hurt, less lava in his blood.
May 7, 2008 at 12:59 pm
93. I’m an optomistic guy, but to me that is very high on Venable. I still think he’s limited to LF, but others have said he’s improved greatly in the OF this year. Wish he had been fully healthy and I could have seen it.
May 7, 2008 at 1:00 pm
#92@FriarFanDan: Yeah but someone has to inforce the slotting system for it to work, until that happens its useless to follow it.
May 7, 2008 at 1:00 pm
#92@FriarFanDan: Since players don’t control when they’re drafted, big market teams telling them that would have what effect, exactly? You either sign with the team that drafts you, go to college, go to a JC, or play independent ball. No matter what you’re going back in the draft eventually. The Yankees can tell Tim Beckham they’ll pay him 10M and make him Jeter’s legal heir and it won’t matter at all.
I never said Alderson was an idiot. What I said was, it’s far more likely that he believes the Padres benefit from the slotting system than that he feels powerless to change John Moores’ mind. He’s not stuck in the prisoner’s dilemma. The Padres wasted 7 million on Jim Edmonds this year. The Royals wasted 30 million over 3 years on Jose Guillen. But those teams are “powerless” to compete with big market clubs in the draft because they “can’t” spend 1 million over slot for a player they can control for 8-12 years? They can. It wouldn’t hurt them one bit, especially if the front office is as smart as everybody says they are. They just don’t want to.
Low-volatility, low-upside players are available in lots of places. Every year there’s dozens of minor league free agents and overaged prospects available cheaply in trades. The draft is the one place where the team gets to decide what player to target and no other team can get involved. They don’t even need to go whole-hog on upside. What investment expert tells his clients to avoid diversifying?
May 7, 2008 at 1:02 pm
#84@JP: If he can’t handle the pressure, then he’s not a prospect. This isn’t some green kid out of high school. When the organization discussed Antonelli as a possible option in center field, I didn’t interpret that as hype.
#86@John Conniff: Yep. It’s also interesting that Gerut got the start in center today for the Beavers, with Ambres shifting to right.
#88@JP: As others have noted, P-Mac was hurt last year. His performance in ‘07 isn’t indicative of his ability. He’s a better hitter than Venable.
May 7, 2008 at 1:03 pm
#94@John Conniff: Yeah, that’s what I see as his peak season. Which, given his age, would normally happen 2 years from now. And those are neutral-park numbers, not Petco numbers.
May 7, 2008 at 1:19 pm
96. Wow Tom. You’ve written some things that I disagreed with in the past, but that is twice today you are right on target.
May 7, 2008 at 1:31 pm
#48@Geoff Young: Agree, and he did something similar last year with KCam and Hampson. That was only 23 on 25 for weeks at a time, but it still wasn’t good.
May 7, 2008 at 1:34 pm
#96@Tom Waits: There’s an unlimited number of examples of teams not drafting guys because they know they can’t afford to sign them. If the Yankees tell a first round pick that they’ll draft him in the fourth and pay him $10 million, then his agent will make it clear to teams that they can waste a pick on him, but he’s not signing for under $10 million. It’s only in a team’s interest to draft him if they know they have a good chance of meeting his demands
If your investment expert is telling you to diversify level of volatility rather than type of volatility, fire him now.
A player’s value at the draft is essentially a weighted average of the chance he’ll turn out to be a certain kind of player. For instance, 10% chance of being a 9, 30% of being an 8, etc. A team may prefer to draft a guy that has a 33% chance each of being a 5,6, or 7, over a guy that has a 20% chance each of being a 4,5,6,7, or 8. Both players are equally valued as a 6, but one’s more of a sure thing, the other could be anything from a 4 to an 8. If you’re trying to rehabilitate a minor league system, it makes sense to go with more of the sure things until you’ve built up a solid base.
May 7, 2008 at 1:35 pm
#97@Geoff Young: Could Gerut be getting ready to be the everyday center fielder? I say that is most likely the case. Has anyone seen him play the position in person recently or heard anything about how capable he is at the position? What about a defensive scouting report on Chip Ambres? Anyone, anyone?
May 7, 2008 at 1:42 pm
101. Usually the players that have flexibility make it known the amount of money that they want. It has more to do with teams that are unwilling to spend major league salaries/and eat up 40-man roster spots to players that are a long way from the majors - which is a big gamble.
The problem is many of the “solid base” type players are not going to be difference making MLB players - the type that medium/small market teams need to acquire to be competitive.
If you go back to the example we were discussing signing someone like Porcello is a huge gamble - but then again thinking that Jim Edmunds is going to rebound offensively in a park like PETCO is also one. Myself, I much more prefer the upside of Porcello to Edmunds.
The Padres will take risks on young guys - in 2006 they selected two high school players fairly high - Kyler Burke and Cedric Hunter - one worked, one didn’t. The bottom line is a team like the AZ Diamondbacks has had success spending money on the types of players that the Padres tend not to pick.
May 7, 2008 at 1:46 pm
#96@Tom Waits: The point isn’t that small-market teams can’t benefit from paying over slot. The point is that the slotting system is the one way that small-market teams are placed on equal footing with large-market teams. So while it may not be in their interest to only pay slot in individual cases, in the bigger picture, it is more important that they keep the slotting system in place. I only benefit from cutting in line while that line exists. Even though some of the bigger guys in line may cut on occasion, it’s probably better for me to stay in line and try to keep them in line, then try to compete with them in a free for all when I’m one of the smaller guys around.
May 7, 2008 at 1:47 pm
#101@FriarFanDan: No, there are a “lot” of examples of teams “willingly deciding” that they don’t want to either pay a player or deal with the complicated negotiations. There’s not a single example of a team that actually “couldn’t” afford a player. Once he’s drafted, the team completely, absolutely, and utterly controls his rights to play professional baseball in the United States for one year. The player can hold out, he can choose to go to college, he can play Indy ball for a year, but those are all risks. The one thing the player can’t do is sign with another MLB team that year.
The Padres portfolio consists almost entirely of strike-throwing college pitchers with fringe stuff and polished college hitters without big power (in some cases, with almost no power). Level, type, there’s not much diversity there. And that limits your returns.
People have been trying to defend the Padres approach of “building a base” for almost 10 years now. Before Alderson and Fuson, they primarily drafted college players. Now they draft almost entirely college players. And again, you’ll look in vain for anyone, especially me, suggesting that they go strictly for upside. ONE high upside sign would be nice. ONE Colon. ONE Green. ONE Burgess.
The payoff for a farm system is in major league players, either on the team that drafted them or being traded for them. Who on earth would rather have five Paul McAnulty’s than one Alex Rodriguez? If you only got one elite player and nobody else in five years, the elite player would be far more valuable. That’s even more true when the team chooses not to spend money on elite free agents.
May 7, 2008 at 1:51 pm
I don’t know if someone already commented on this or not, too many comments to read… but they removed Germano from the rotation yesterday. Ledzema is going to start tomorrow.
May 7, 2008 at 1:52 pm
#103@John Conniff: I agree completely on Porcello being less of a risk than Edmonds. I just have to figure that Sandy sees that too. So he must also perceive an additional cost that we’re not factoring in. One possible cost is undermining the slotting system, which benefits the Padres relative to other clubs. That would explain is dogged adherence to the slotting system, despite the obvious benefit of paying over slot.
May 7, 2008 at 1:55 pm
105. To be a devil’s advocate they did go upside on Kyler Burke in 2006 - spent nearly a million dollars on him. He’s now in his third professional season and has yet to hit.
Its tough to find fault in picking him - tremendous athlete, two-way player in high school - he just can’t hit.
May 7, 2008 at 1:56 pm
I’m surprised there has been no mention of the rule 5 draft either.
If I remember correctly a few of us (I know I was) were really hoping for the Padres to draft Brian Barton and instead I think we got Callix Crabbe. While I’m not on the oust Callix Crabbe bandwagon that some people here seem to be on (because I still don’t know what the guy can or can’t do because he never plays) I do think the pick would have been much better served on a guy with center field potential. With all the decent middle infielder types we had performing pretty well in spring training Crabbe was not a need and as it turned out outfield depth and athleticism would have been awesome.
Barton is a small sample has been a good player so far for the Cardinals.
May 7, 2008 at 1:57 pm
107. There were a couple of things too besides the costs - I’m sure taking up a spot on the 40 man roster was one, different incentives clauses, etc.
May 7, 2008 at 1:57 pm
#107@FriarFanDan: Once again unless the slot system is inforced whats the point of following it? The best players will still request money over slot and teams will still be willing to pay it. You have to inforce the slot system for it to work.
May 7, 2008 at 1:58 pm
#104@FriarFanDan: Teams are on an equal footing in terms of draftable talent without the slotting system. They were on an equal footing before the slotting system was even instituted.
The numbers are right there for anybody to look at. Teams that adhere to slot spend anywhere from 1m to 3m less than teams that don’t. That’s petty cash. It’s Michael Barrett. It’s half of “Get this fork out of my back” Jim Edmonds. And that money buys you control of the player for years.
Your example doesn’t work, because in the baseball draft, the big guys can’t push you out of the way. Your pick is your pick. The player you select determines whether he’ll sign with you, but he’s not playing pro ball for anyone but you for the next 12 months. What’s happening now is that the Padres (and other slot-adherents) are NOT staying in line. They’re basically giving away their place in line.
May 7, 2008 at 1:59 pm
SA will be on XX in about 5 to 10 minutes.
May 7, 2008 at 1:59 pm
111. Problem is MLB doesn’t enforce it and I’m not sure they could. Also as TW pointed out for a team like the Royals to whine about the costs and then go out and pay Guillen $30 million doesn’t really jibe.
Think about it - Tampa, not exactly a team rolling in cash - pays above slot.
May 7, 2008 at 2:01 pm
At the very least the Padres should trade something to Milwaukee and send Crabbe to Portland, if not release his outright.
May 7, 2008 at 2:02 pm
#108@John Conniff: And it was a good risk….but it still was slot. When they only draft 10 or so HS kids in 3 years, it’s going to be hard to draw much of a conclusion.
#107@FriarFanDan: The more likely “additional cost” is just plain, simple money. It costs more to go over slot. The Padres don’t want to spend the money. Ergo, adherence
to slot.
#109@KRS1: Barton was gone before we picked. We would have needed to trade up to get him.
May 7, 2008 at 2:02 pm
#114@John Conniff: The NBA does…
May 7, 2008 at 2:08 pm
#116@Tom Waits:
Yeah I know but I belive there was a rumor the morning of the rule 5 draft that we had a deal in place to trade for the number 1 rule 5 pick. I could be wrong but I want to say the deal was for cash like $25-50k. I’ll try to find something.
May 7, 2008 at 2:10 pm
#80@Geoff Young: I think trading CY is something we SHOULD do but WONT do. He gets hurt a lot and I think his numbers are a bit superficial because of Petco. He can be great at times, but he has started to be bad almost as often as he is good. He doesnt throw hard or with any movment and his size gives him health issues. I think there will be a large market for a guy like him as the deadline approaches and I really don’t think he is necessary to the future success of the Padres.
May 7, 2008 at 2:11 pm
116. I think it was a good risk too. I think too many people believe that you have to go one way or another. There is no reason you can’t draft both college and high school players - especially with the number of picks the team had last year.
117. True, but MLB doesn’t - which is the problem.
May 7, 2008 at 2:11 pm
PMACS RC/PA x27 is 4.0, 3rd after AGON and Giles. eg. Edmunds is 1.4 Kooz 3.4 and Greene 2.0. See TBT to calc. JP @ #82 you seem to be defining a moneyball player.
May 7, 2008 at 2:19 pm
Penny got shelled giving up 10 runs in 4 innings. Main is pitching a 2 hit gem as that Mets lead the Dodgers 12-0 in the 7th.
May 7, 2008 at 2:21 pm
#116@Tom Waits: But if there is no additional cost, doesn’t that just make Sandy an idiot?
Sandy is a shrewd baseball executive that makes wise business decisions.
Paying over slot is advantageous.
The Padres don’t pay over slot.
One of those statements must necessarily be false and we know it’s not the last one. So is Sandy making poor business decisions or is there a disadvantage to paying over slot? I find it more plausible that there are some hidden costs to paying over slot than that Sandy isn’t as shrewd a baseball executive as he seems and his reputation indicates. I really don’t have a horse in this race, I just find arguing over issues, when done respectfully and intelligently (as is almost always the case at ducksnorts), is the best way to illuminate those issues.
May 7, 2008 at 2:24 pm
Sandy pretty much said that Headley will not be coming up on friday and that Guret prob will.
They do not want to rush Headley and Antonelli.
May 7, 2008 at 2:26 pm
#33.
This is a bit late, but I agree with you. By FO, I was referring to a group that includes Moores. I was not trying to imply that Towers, Alderson or anyone else but Moores is responsible for us being cheap.
However, they were responsible for not be prepared with the Matt Bush pick. And I do think that they could sell resource allocation better inside the org — less Geoff Blums, more draft picks.
May 7, 2008 at 2:27 pm
Sandy also said that no Padre coaches are on the hot seat.
May 7, 2008 at 2:30 pm
#126@Steve C: Thanks for the updates. Would you be willing to post a summary once the interview is finished? I’m not suprised that they’re holding back Antonelli and Headley for the time being.
Did he say anything about Hundley? What about our pitching guys like Ramos, Geer, or LeBlanc?
May 7, 2008 at 2:36 pm
#127@Phantom: That was pretty much it, Billy and Darren don’t exactly ask “burning” questions and Sandy would just avoid them anyways.
Nope no mention of any pitching prospects. The only pitching question was about why Ledezma is pitcing tomorrow instead of Peavy on his normal rest and Sandy just said that it was buddy’s choice.
May 7, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Antonelli really isn’t off to that bad a start. He has a great ISO Slugging, he’s walking a goodly amount and isn’t striking out too much.
His issue to date has been a .210 BA on BIP. For a line drive hitter, that’s just bad luck. I haven’t seen him, so maybe he’s popping it up a lot or whatever, but I bet he rebounds strongly.
May 7, 2008 at 2:38 pm
Hey GY do you think there is any way you would be able to do an interview with Sandy?
May 7, 2008 at 2:40 pm
#129@Alan: I agree with you but It couldn’t hurt to keep him in AAA instead of pulling him up into the disaster that is the Padres at the moment. Let the team cut some dead weight, level out a bit and then pull him up.
May 7, 2008 at 2:42 pm
Didn’t see this mentioned yet - apologies if I missed it - MadFriars is reporting that Luke Carlin has been added to the 40-man roster. No word on who he is replacing.
May 7, 2008 at 2:43 pm
#132@Winfield’s Ghost: I think that there is room from when they put Robles on waivers.
May 7, 2008 at 2:47 pm
#132@Winfield’s Ghost: I saw that. I know that he is one of the better defensive catchers in the organization, which would probably make him a much better option as a backup than Morton.
May 7, 2008 at 2:47 pm
#119@SDSUBaseball: The amount that Petco helps CY has been overstated by some folks in MSM. As for getting hurt a lot, he’s made 30 or more starts in three straight seasons. I’ll take that.
#130@Steve C: No clue. I can look into it, though.
May 7, 2008 at 2:50 pm
I kind of expect these moves to happen before friday:
1. Send Morton down to AA
2. Release Edmonds
3. Put Cameron on the DL
4. Call up Carlin or Hundley
5. Call up Guret
6. Call up Estes
May 7, 2008 at 2:51 pm
#135@Geoff Young: Cool please do, It would be really nice having someone interview him who knows a little more about baseball/the Padres than the guys on the radio.
May 7, 2008 at 3:06 pm
#135@Geoff Young: Thats because he makes starts when he is hurt and ends up look like the 2nd half of last year. He has looked similar most of this year already. If making starts and eating innings was what I wanted form a #2 then no problem, but I want more consistency. I think it would be a good idea to trade him. Personally I think Petco helps CY more than you think, but his (fluke) 2006 numbers are going to lopside his home and away splits. I think his ‘07 and ‘08 splits are more what we should expect.
May 7, 2008 at 3:08 pm
#137@Steve C: I think the people on the radio just know not to ask the kinds of questions we want answered because they will get round about answers from SA.
May 7, 2008 at 3:10 pm
#123@FriarFanDan: Maybe I wasn’t clear. The advantage is the money that they don’t pay. It’s not an advantage in terms of a competitive franchise. It’s an advantage in terms of reduced cost to the owner(s) of the Padres. Paying slot is a way to control costs, with a built-in rationale that it’s “the right thing to do” or “because it’s good for baseball.” It’s advantageous to pay over slot if your intention is to accumulate the greatest possible pool of talent. If that’s not your intention, then paying over slot isn’t advantageous.
I don’t think Alderson is an idiot in any way. I think he is executing EXACTLY the strategy that he wants to execute.
May 7, 2008 at 3:10 pm
#139@SDSUBaseball: I think thast true to a point but what I meant was that GY can ask him more indepth Q’s about the farm system than Philly Billy.
May 7, 2008 at 3:12 pm
#141@Steve C: His audience is also all hardcore fans who would want more detailed questions than your general sports talk listener.
May 7, 2008 at 3:15 pm
#142@Steve C: I just dont know if he would answer then any differently for GY than on the radio…
May 7, 2008 at 3:15 pm
#139@SDSUBaseball: Since he won’t talk to them about Mark Loretta anymore, they don’t know what else to ask him.
May 7, 2008 at 3:19 pm
#136@Steve C: I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to talk Edmonds into going on the DL, with a long minor league rehab to see if he can find some bat speed again. If he’s not fed up with the whole thing he might give it a shot, it’s hard to believe he’d want his last memories to be the hacks he’s taken this week.
#134@JMAR: Better, or more likely to be used by Black, either way works as long as it saves Bard from the death march.
Carlin’s minor league numbers aren’t terrible. Good OBP, zero power, switch-hitter.
May 7, 2008 at 3:21 pm
#145@Tom Waits: Carlin is swinging a pretty hot bat in AAA too. Not a bad move if they arent going to play Morton.
May 7, 2008 at 3:21 pm
#143@SDSUBaseball: The quality of the questions would almost necessarily lead to more informative answers. Anyone interviewed by Philly Billy must sign a waiver that they won’t punch him in the nose.
May 7, 2008 at 3:21 pm
#143@SDSUBaseball: Its not different answers its different Q’s which sandy would answer, like…
Where does Eric Sogard project in the organization? Do you think he could be promoted to SA for the second half of the season? Does he project to another position if he continues to play well and get blocked at 2B by Antonelli?
Questions like that Sandy should not have any problems answering and the radio guys dont cover because they either A. have not clue who Sogard is or B. their audience has no clue who he is so they do not want to boar them with those Q’s.
But your right if GY asked will Edmonds be on this team in 2 weeks he will not get a responce.
May 7, 2008 at 3:27 pm
#148@Steve C: Or C: they dont have that much time and asking about a kid in A ball isnt really an issue with the big club right now. But I get what you are saying, and ya its possible you could get some good answers to those questions if they were asked. I wonder if Sogard has the glove to move to SS? Or if Antonelli moves to CF Sogard would be valuable at 2B. Who knows at this point.
May 7, 2008 at 3:28 pm
#145@Tom Waits: Funny, I was just thinking about that scenario. Give the veteran Edmonds a chance to go on the DL, let him relax, take a deep breath, play as many rehab games as possible, and come back refreshed or retire. If he comes back looking better, maybe they could trade him for a minor leaguer. This might be worth a shot. They’re going to pay his salary anyways, whether he’s released or on the DL.
OK, so when is the fake hamstring injury coming? I’ll guess 3rd at bat tonight.
May 7, 2008 at 3:28 pm
#144@Field39: #147@Tom Waits: Ok I get it, you guys dont like the radio.
May 7, 2008 at 3:38 pm
#149@SDSUBaseball: who knows but I get the impression that the guys on the radio do not follow the pads farm system as closely as we do and if they did it would not be interesting to most of their listeners to talk about it, where its the exact opposite here.
May 7, 2008 at 3:42 pm
The NBA Players Association isn’t nearly as powerful as the MLBPA.
May 7, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Comment 153 was directed at Steve , #117…
May 7, 2008 at 3:45 pm
#153@Lance Richardson: MLBPA does not kick in until you are on the 25 man roster I belive. I would imagine they would want a slot system to free up more money for the Vets in the MLBPA.
May 7, 2008 at 3:48 pm
#155@Steve C:
I’m pretty sure the MLBPA has considerable influence over rules affecting draft choices. Were the owners to implement a firm and unbreakable slotting system, I suspect you’d see a labor stoppage in short order.
May 7, 2008 at 3:53 pm
#156@Lance Richardson: Why? That’s money that the MLBPA will never see, the only reason I would see it becoming an issues is so that the MLBPA could use it as a chip in their next round of negotiations so that they can give it up to get something else.
May 7, 2008 at 3:55 pm
Great discussion today guys ! Greatest sports blog on earth. You must think critically to participate in this blog and it starts at the top. Awesome Geoff !
May 7, 2008 at 4:05 pm
Not sure if anyone has noticed yet, but Headley has been pretty darn hot over his last 10 games. . .yeah, I know, small sample size. But it at least gives me hope that he is up in a few more weeks. . .
May 7, 2008 at 4:26 pm
#138@SDSUBaseball: Okay, this is a different complaint. It’s not that he’s hurt all the time, it’s that he pitched while he was hurt last year. Well, that’s one isolated incident. As for the home/road, we will agree to disagree. I find it interesting that before he came to the Padres, CY had no trouble in Arlington, which is most unkind to pitchers.
May 7, 2008 at 7:25 pm
#155@Steve C: 40 man roster.
The player’s union won’t negotiate a draft cap because they don’t want to agree to any cap on payments. Once you agree that the owners can set artificial limits on incoming labor, it’s a much smaller step to allowing them to set limits on existing labor.
The funny thing is, if all those great business minds of the owners hadn’t insisted on draft pick compensation for free agents, the union wouldn’t have anything to say about the draft.