Top of the ninth, two on, one out. Adrian Gonzalez steps to the plate. Braves manager Bobby Cox summons ex-Padre Royce Ring, who promptly hangs a breaking ball. Gonzalez swats it high and deep down the right-field line. He, catcher Brian McCann, and plate umpire Wally Bell all watch as it sails into the Atlanta night… just foul for strike one.
Ring proceeds to fan Gonzalez. After a pitching change, Kevin Kouzmanoff lofts a harmless fly ball to center, into the waiting glove of another ex-Padre, Mark Kotsay. Game over. The Padres lose again.
That’s the season in a nutshell so far. The Padres play poorly, and then, when they get opportunity, it fizzles… or misses by a few feet, whatever.
I’m not prepared to give up on the season. Maybe it’s a reflection on how well the Padres have played since moving to Petco Park, or maybe it’s just my own stubbornness, but I refuse to believe that these next 129 games should serve merely as an audition for 2009. This seems too much like panic to me, and I don’t like making decisions based on fear.
That said, changes are needed. And from what I hear, they are a-comin’, possibly as early as this weekend. Some of these are already rumored to be in the works and have been discussed in the comments, but here are a few moves I’d like to see made to improve the Padres for this year and give them a better chance to compete right now:
- Use Colt Morton or find a backup catcher that Bud Black trusts and is willing to pencil into the lineup twice a week. Josh Bard‘s fumes are running on fumes, and his entire game is suffering for it. Bard is a solid big-league catcher, but you’d never know it from watching him the past few weeks. Black needs to get him more rest. Say what you will about Bruce Bochy’s in-game tactics, the guy knew how to utilize his bench. This would not have happened under Bochy’s watch.
- Offer Callix Crabbe back to the Brewers and get a real utility player. Crabbe is a second baseman with decent on-base skills masquerading as a jack-of-all-trades. He isn’t the second coming of Bip Roberts, and he isn’t a legitimate option at shortstop — the fact that he hadn’t played an inning at the position since 2003 in the Midwest League should have been a clue, but apparently not. Who takes Crabbe’s place? Oscar Robles? Oops, the Phillies claimed him off waivers. Luis Rodriguez? Oops, he’s on the disabled list. Sean Kazmar? Well, he can play shortstop but he’s hitting .179/.273/.253 at Double-A. I never thought I’d utter these words, but I actually kinda miss Geoff Blum.
- Release Jim Edmonds and try someone else in center. I don’t really care who — Scott Hairston, Jody Gerut, Chip Ambres, Will Venable if he’s healthy. Heck, even Drew Macias wouldn’t be terrible, which is more than can be said for Edmonds. Bringing in the veteran on the cheap was a nice idea, but this is less Mike Piazza/Greg Maddux and more David Wells (Second Edition). When the Padres picked up Edmonds I figured that his bat — with the possible exception of residual on-base skills — was done but that he might have value defensively in center field. Well, he doesn’t. So now the Padres are starting a no-glove, no-hit guy at a key position and batting him fifth. That’s an outstanding way to lose ballgames.
- Remove Justin Germano from the rotation. His smoke-and-mirrors act isn’t fooling anyone. The Padres have plenty of internal options to replace Germano. None is particularly exciting, but I’m prepared to accept “passable” right now. Clay Hensley has suffered a setback in his rehab and Mark Prior… well, who knows what he’s doing. On the big club, Wil Ledezma is pumping mid-90s octane from the left side in garbage time. How well will his success in meaningless situations translate to a starting role? I don’t know, but I wouldn’t mind finding out. Other possibilities include Josh Geer (a Germano clone, less the detailed scouting reports against him), Cesar Ramos (a lefty version of Geer), and Shawn “I Was Good in ’97″ Estes. So, yeah, let’s try Ledezma.
- Keep Joe Thatcher out of crucial situations until he figures out what he’s doing. Make him the long man or, better, send him back to Triple-A and bring up someone else from Portland — perhaps Dirk Hayhurst (3.48 ERA, 11.76 K/9, .213 BAA in 20.2 IP).
- Lose Glendon Rusch. I have no explanation for his continued presence on the roster. Honestly, I’d rather see his spot occupied by a position player. One of my few criticisms of Black as a manager is his insistence on carrying seven arms in the bullpen and concurrent refusal to trust more than four or five of them. If the guys at the back of the line can’t be relied upon to perform their duties, then they don’t belong in the big leagues.
I’m also wondering a bit about the coaching staff. The Padres’ baserunning has been atrocious this year. Some of this can be blamed on a general lack of speed, but even slow guys can run the bases intelligently. I don’t know who or what is at the root of the Pads’ recklessness on the bases, but if I’m third-base coach Glenn Hoffman, I’m not feeling real comfortable right about now.
Same goes for Wally Joyner. This team has a recent history of axing its hitting coaches, and both Dave Magadan and Merv Rettenmund were getting much more out of their charges when they were let go. The fact that Joyner and Kevin Towers were college teammates could complicate matters, but they’ve been in the business long enough to know how it works.
There are a bunch of trade rumors floating around as well, but it’s hard to separate the wheat from the chaff, so we won’t go there. That and I’m out of breath. Stay tuned…
#43@FriarFanDan: Less than half of teams are paying slot now. It hurts smaller-market teams MORE, because the difference between an expensive draft and a cheap one is Michael Barret’s 2008 salary. The Tigers benefited from going over slot even though 15 other teams did, too. It’s one of the only talent pools where the resources are basically equal and the asking price isn’t exponentially different.
It’s a capitalist economy, and John Moores hasn’t been shy about his capitalist ability to profit from redevelopment. Why should a group of multimillionaires and billionaires be able to artificially restrict what players are paid?
Alderson doesn’t have to accept that the budget constraints are set it stoneforever. It’s not a difficult argument to make if he wanted to make it. Their adherence to slot is a big reason that 2008 looks so bleak. A small investment (6-10 million over the last 4 years) they would have a LOT more minor league talent.
#47@FriarFanDan: Permanent as long as the current ownership / management group remain intact. People talk about “filling out the farm system” as if marginal major leaguers and AAAA players have much value.
#50@Rain Delay: But will any of them provide an impact? Yes they could all play at the Major League level but would they make it in the dodgers, rockes or D-Backs lineup?
I’m not saying that those guys would not be an improvement over whats there now im just saying that none of those guys would provide another consisten 100 OPS+ bad in this line up.
I feel like there were a couple more draft picks like Nady for SD. Wasn’t Tagg Bozied in the same situation? Not that he worked out.
#43@FriarFanDan: By not being a yes-man, I mean that Alderson was brought in to ACTIVELY manage the baseball operation. He’s not just implementing policy. He can make policy. If Moores needs convincing, Alderson is the guy to do it. But he has to want to do it.
The fact that Brian Giles is a bright spot right now is a great reason to trade him, now. He’s expensive, not a long-term solution, a defensive minus, a mediocre baserunner. He’s a great OBP guy and could really help a team like the Indians, for example, or maybe the Mets. Why not get rid of him while he’s still valuable?
The bravest thing the front office could do is recognize that this team as presently constituted cannot compete with Arizona or LA or STL or the Cubs or etc. etc. etc. They could reasonably finish in third, and maybe in second if one of the two front runners collapse. But they don’t have a roster that can believably win the Wild Card, so why not save money and add talent?
#54@Tom Waits: Alderson owns part of the team as well so you would figure he would want to spend less in FA and more on the draft…unless the ultimate plan is to just spend less on both.
Not sure if anyone has discussed this, but I feel like you need to trade Chris Young. It’s seeming more and more like he might be a product of the ballpark and his height. If he’s not perfect with location, which he hasn’t been pretty much all of this year, he’s average at best.
I would think his value around the league as a good #2 starter would get a decent load of prospects, maybe similar to what Haren brought to the As.
Especially when you can typically find a guy like Randy Wolf every year and see him be successful in PETCO.
47. I don’t think I could have written it better than what Tom just did – which I agree with (51). Depth is great, but I’ll take what the Reds have – four players that can potenitally help a MLB team – Bruce, Votto, Cueto and Baily – over a bunch of very good players that profile as 4th OFs or utility.
53. Bozied was taken the year after Nady – in 2001.
#57@Gracie: Padres won’t trade Young until the deadline (if at all) im not totaly against the move but once they move him it will show that they have completely given up on the season.
But if I remember right, Bozied slipped b/c of money demands.
I agree, but I hate waiting until the deadline when you force yourself into “the best deal” available. I feel like you can do better when you give yourself time to make the best deal for your team.
#60@Gracie: He did slip and he was a Boras client. He didn’t sign after his junior year and didn’t have a lot of leverage when we popped him. Good value signing.
Maybe we could get John Butler (RIP) and A.J. Smith handle our draft too. They do/did a great job with the chargers.
#52@Steve C: My thinking is this, who cares about the Rockies, Dodgers or Snakes line ups. Right now, the focus needs to be on the Pads. Anyone will tell you that, worrying about if you’re guys would/could fit into those line ups is futile. Yes, they’re division rivals. But at the moment, you can’t worry about what they’re doing. If you’re in a spin, you need to worry about righting your ship – not what the other guy is doing.
If you keep doing that, you’re going to find yourself in a bigger hole than you’re in now. I’m not a Pads fan, I’m a Braves fan. But my job allows me to attend Beavers games – actually that is my job. The names I mentioned would all be upgrades to whats going on now – Well Myrow would have to come off the bench, as he’s blocked by AGon. But Ambres, Venable, Gerut would be a positive upgrade in the the Pads outfield. Venable I don’t think is a 100% right now, as he is off the DL but only DHing when it’s allowed – pinch hitting other wise.
Just my 2 cents. Maybe I’m just talking out my butt….
I was just poking around Baseball Prospecuts and found that our team’s offense has generated a NEGATIVE VORP thusfar this year (-3.4). That’s right, 4-A hacks would be better than this offense. Just reading that gives me a headache…
#61@Gracie: Yes and no, teams are not sure where they stand yet as far as division races go, if its late june and a team is 2 games out of first and CY can push them over the hump they may get desperate and give up alot for him. The padres have an advantage because they don’t have to trade him he is cheap and locked up for a few more years so if they keep him he can still help the team.
#65@Bryan S: *Prospectus
#64@Rain Delay: That’s pretty optimistic. We’ve seen lots of young prospects and/or aged prospects with good AAA numbers come up and do not much in the majors. Is anyone confident that Venable will “really” be better than Hairston or McAnulty with only five weeks of AAA at-bats?
They may very well be better, but we’re probably looking at incremental improvements.
#64@Rain Delay: Oh, THAT’S what I smell!
#68@Tom Waits: exactly my point.
#68@Tom Waits: Well I think I’d go with Ambres or Gerut first. You’d wanna make sure Venable is 100% of course. But Gerut or Ambres on the other hand..I think they could do the job and do it better.#69@Tom Waits: Har Har Har
#55@UC Michael:
Remind me again. Are there charts somewhere that show OG is a minus in the field and a mediocre baserunner? Is it simply because he is not fast?
Geoff, I think you are on the mark in your commentary.
Couple of things ~ Craig Stansberry also seems to be picking it up, so perhaps he would be a better alternative than Crabbe. Also, I am excited about the performance of Wil Venable.
Again – look at the Texas Rangers German Duran and Brandon Boggs –did not Antonelli and Headley perform at the same level or above last year but now both contribute at the major league level. Was Antonelli mismanaged this off season ?
#70@Steve C: To elaborate….how many of us said “Iguchi can’t be any worse than NOG?” Or “Kouzmanoff can’t be cold in April againt?” Or going back a ways, “Randa is guaranteed to hit more than Burroughs?”
Just because one player is doing poorly doesn’t automatically mean that another player will be an improvement.
#68@Tom Waits: I wouldn’t be surprised if Venable performs better than McAnulty in every phase of the game. Right now. Today.
#72@Stephen: Agree. I’ve always seen Giles described as a good baserunner, deadly on breaking up the dp, knows when to take the extra bag.
#71@Rain Delay: Agree that they COULD, not that they WILL.
#61 – You have to have confidence that CY won’t destroy his value by continuing to badly underperform. It’s quite a balancing act.
#75@JP:
McAnulty outhit Venable at every level. He’s had a lot more experience against higher level competition. Venable is probably a better defender at getting to balls, somewhat negated by his arm. Even his “hot” start to 2008 isn’t all that good: 801 OPS, a terrible 1/14 BB/K rate, 0 HR.
You’re certainly entitled to think what you will, but I’d ask…why? What reasons are there except that McAnulty is here, on a struggling big league club (but actually contributing offensively) while Venable, being distant and less well-known, is on the green side of the fence?
#78@Tom Waits: That doesn’t mean I think it’s impossible for Venable to come up and hit great, but he looks a lot like an average bat playing average corner defense or below-average CF defense.
#57@Gracie: I’m not opposed to the idea of trading CY assuming we can get something of value in return. He isn’t entirely a product of Petco Park, though. Here are his home/road splits since joining the Padres:
home: 191 IP, 3.02 ERA, 8.53 K/9
road: 201 IP, 3.76 ERA, 8.37 K/9
Yeah, he’s better at Petco, but the split isn’t much more severe than Peavy’s:
home: 474.2 IP, 2.73 ERA, 10.11 K/9
road: 369 IP, 3.17 ERA, 8.71 K/9
CY is relatively young and he has a good contract. Guys like that should be seriously coveted and fetch a lot in trade, if the Padres want to go that route.
#73@JP: Antonelli is 23 years old and at Triple-A. He’s gotten off to a slow start, but I don’t see any evidence of mismanagment here.
Maybe Buddy can learn a lesson from Bobby Cox last night. Thats how you use a bullpen. The reliever doesnt need to finish an inning!
#78@Tom Waits: McAnulty hasn’t performed well since 2006. Let’s see what 2008 brings (if he is even on the roster in this organization) . So far, what I find especially disconcerting is PMAC’s baserunning speed and also his basepath decisions and instincts are brutal. Not to mention, his outfield defense is below average at best.
One thing for sure and I will concede, both Venable and PMAC are not what you would consider “young” prospects.
#82@JP: P-Mac was hurt in 07 and did not get back on track right away.
#80@Geoff Young: Did they not put to much pressure on the kid instead of letting him fly a bit under the radar.
Geoff, the whole idea of bring Antonelli in here, in a much publicized “audition” for centerfield in December .. was this not a bit over the top and perhaps serving to confuse or put undo pressure on the young man ? Not to mention, the organization spinning him in the media to be the next phenom, instead of, again, being more patient with him.
#83@Steve C: Oh well, the clock keeps ticking and the game is full of guys who are banged up but still get the job done (ig-Brian Giles down the stretch in 2007).
PMAC had 300 PA’s w/Portland last year and was not impressive in the slightest. Are we going to totally attribute this sub par year to his injuries ? Time will tell.
Venable hasn’t been in the outfield since April 12 because of shoulder problems, so that isn’t really an option.
Also he isn’t close to the hitter that PMAC was in the minors.
Wow, Geoff Young is fed up. The Padres must really sucks right now.
The thing the Padres can do right away is fix the roster and lineup to improve the chance ever so slightly of winning games by limiting the outs given away by bats and shoddy pitching.
Cut Crabbe, Edmonds and Rusch right away to take those players out of Bud Black’s hands. Force Bud to start Colt Morton two days in a row to give Bard a rest right now (it’s probably going to suck with the starting pitchers but Bard really needs some time off) and then, have Morton start 2 games a week until Barrett comes back.
Start Hairston at CF, P-Mac/Gerut at LF platoon, move Khalil down to #7/8 slot (his OBP skill is really terrible and it’s not even worth swapping with the pitcher’s spot). Bring up Jody Gerut and see what he can do at CF/RF because OG isn’t going to play everyday, and Stansberry to relieve Khalil and Iguchi (he can’t be worse than Silent L there) with the caveat to use him at least once a week not counting pinch running duty whenever Tony Clark gets on base when he PHs. Heck, bring up Myrow, he can relieve El Hombre and PH too, or start in LF (even Silent L got a start there – the horror).
Not much of an upside but can be better than all the out machines we are having right now (at the plate and on the field). Germano is the mop-up guy for now until he gets sent down or away. I guess developing movement on one’s pitches is hard to do, right? Where in the world is Justin Hampson?
Looking forward to seeing Dirk Hayhurst up here.
#86@John Conniff: Isn’t close to the hitter PMAC was in the minors ? May be a case of “what have you done for me lately”?
Venable’s 2007 was somewhat disappointing but PMAC’s 2007 was a step back for the guy.
88. I know it sounds like an excuse, but there are also reasons, McAnulty was hurt. Its hard to take a step back when you shouldn’t be on the field.
And no, a .770 career OPS even with PMAC’s bad year included isn’t close to his .874.
From what I understand Venable was playing a decent CF in Portland, but he looked really bad in CF when I saw him in San Antonio last year. I’m still amazed that he played as well as he did in RF there with his arm.
He made a huge jump from Fort Wayne to San Antonio, but you’re still talking about someone with a slugging percentage of .373.
He looks much better at the plate this year – in the pinch hitting assignments that I saw, but I still don’t see him as being better than anyone on the Padres’ roster right now.
#82@JP: Venable’s last good year, also 2006. McAnulty has a career 874 OPS in the minors. Right now he’s an average major league hitter. His baserunning mistakes so far, by my count, equal one out. Is it smart to promote Venable when he’s getting over an injury, isn’t setting AAA on fire, and struggled badly in AA last season? I like Venable as a prospect, but if you’re trying to build for 2009, at least let him have half a year in Triple A. He’s a lot more valuable if he can play a passable CF, and it’s easier to learn that in the PCL than the majors.
#88@JP: That’s also true of Venable. He had a solid 2006 in low A and struggled badly in AA. Are we going to totally attribute that to jumping one level of A ball?
#84@JP: Media pressure or hype in San Diego? It was a couple of stories in the local paper. Tons of prospects struggle every year, are they all mismanaged? A couple of young guys surviving for the Rangers proves that a couple of young guys are surviving for the Rangers, nothing more.
#87@Didi: I’d probably platoon Hairston with PMac and Gerut, since they’re both LH hitters. But otherwise those are all smart moves that don’t hurt us.
#87@Didi:
#90@Tom Waits:
“otherwise those are all smart moves.”
Sorry, that sounds condescending, which wasn’t my intent.
#51@Tom Waits: I agree the Padres could benefit by paying over slot while the slotting system is in place. But the fact remains that if the slotting system ends, it will be small market teams like the Padres that suffer. Big market teams will simply tell players, “we’ll draft you in the 4th round and pay you more than the small market teams can afford to pay you if they take you in the first round.” It may not be fair to the players, but the slotting system is the one equalizer small market teams have in the absence of a salary cap. The effect of the slotting system is reduced by teams paying over slot, but it would be eliminated if all teams disregarded the slotting system. It is more likely that Sandy Alderson is considering this or something else, rather than he’s just been fooling everybody all along and he’s really an idiot.
Filling out the minors can mean selecting guys that have a relatively greater chance of not flaming out, but a relatively lesser chance of being ML stars. When you have no farm system to speak of, this may be a good strategy to implement until you get to the point where you’re only promoting guys based on merit. Then you can afford to pick up some guys that are more likely to flame out, but also more likely to become stars. It’s similar to assembling a retirement portfolio of low volatility stocks so you have safety and stability, before throwing in some high volatility stocks for the big moneymaking possibility. The FO may not be implementing this strategy properly or maybe it’s not the best strategy, but it’s definitely a legitimate strategy.
#89@John Conniff: I’m not convinced at all in Venable’s ability to play CF or even RF. OG gets by in right because his experience outweighs his weak arm, sort of like Gwynn in his later days.
Gun to my head, Venable looks like a peak 280/360/430 hitter, 15 HR, with above-average defense in LF and some speed. Milton Bradley with less power, less propensity (hopefully) to get hurt, less lava in his blood.
93. I’m an optomistic guy, but to me that is very high on Venable. I still think he’s limited to LF, but others have said he’s improved greatly in the OF this year. Wish he had been fully healthy and I could have seen it.
#92@FriarFanDan: Yeah but someone has to inforce the slotting system for it to work, until that happens its useless to follow it.
#92@FriarFanDan: Since players don’t control when they’re drafted, big market teams telling them that would have what effect, exactly? You either sign with the team that drafts you, go to college, go to a JC, or play independent ball. No matter what you’re going back in the draft eventually. The Yankees can tell Tim Beckham they’ll pay him 10M and make him Jeter’s legal heir and it won’t matter at all.
I never said Alderson was an idiot. What I said was, it’s far more likely that he believes the Padres benefit from the slotting system than that he feels powerless to change John Moores’ mind. He’s not stuck in the prisoner’s dilemma. The Padres wasted 7 million on Jim Edmonds this year. The Royals wasted 30 million over 3 years on Jose Guillen. But those teams are “powerless” to compete with big market clubs in the draft because they “can’t” spend 1 million over slot for a player they can control for 8-12 years? They can. It wouldn’t hurt them one bit, especially if the front office is as smart as everybody says they are. They just don’t want to.
Low-volatility, low-upside players are available in lots of places. Every year there’s dozens of minor league free agents and overaged prospects available cheaply in trades. The draft is the one place where the team gets to decide what player to target and no other team can get involved. They don’t even need to go whole-hog on upside. What investment expert tells his clients to avoid diversifying?
#84@JP: If he can’t handle the pressure, then he’s not a prospect. This isn’t some green kid out of high school. When the organization discussed Antonelli as a possible option in center field, I didn’t interpret that as hype.
#86@John Conniff: Yep. It’s also interesting that Gerut got the start in center today for the Beavers, with Ambres shifting to right.
#88@JP: As others have noted, P-Mac was hurt last year. His performance in ’07 isn’t indicative of his ability. He’s a better hitter than Venable.
#94@John Conniff: Yeah, that’s what I see as his peak season. Which, given his age, would normally happen 2 years from now. And those are neutral-park numbers, not Petco numbers.
96. Wow Tom. You’ve written some things that I disagreed with in the past, but that is twice today you are right on target.
#48@Geoff Young: Agree, and he did something similar last year with KCam and Hampson. That was only 23 on 25 for weeks at a time, but it still wasn’t good.