The Padres need to go out and get more hitters. I know this is true because I keep hearing it. I also know it’s a complete load of garbage. What they really need is for the hitters they already have to start performing up to their capabilities.
| 2008 | 2007 | Career | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | PA | OPS+ | PA | OPS+ | PA | OPS+ | |
| Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of April 29, 2008. | |||||||
| Josh Bard | 30 | 95 | 54 | 443 | 107 | 1364 | 99 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 26 | 116 | 126 | 720 | 125 | 1673 | 119 |
| Tadahito Iguchi | 33 | 116 | 64 | 533 | 92 | 1857 | 96 |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | 26 | 123 | 64 | 534 | 109 | 718 | 98 |
| Khalil Greene | 28 | 116 | 57 | 659 | 100 | 2335 | 99 |
| Scott Hairston | 28 | 91 | 92 | 294 | 94 | 785 | 86 |
| Jim Edmonds | 38 | 77 | 36 | 411 | 88 | 7384 | 132 |
| Brian Giles | 37 | 114 | 116 | 552 | 109 | 7043 | 139 |
| Paul McAnulty | 27 | 62 | 98 | 43 | 49 | 149 | 77 |
The only guy who might be playing over his head is McAnulty. But we don’t really know because we’ve never gotten the opportunity to see what P-Mac is capable of doing at the big-league level over extended periods of time.
Gonzalez and Giles are about where we’d expect. Hairston’s numbers seem reasonable, although thanks to a lack of consistent playing time in the past, his abilities remain unclear.
The rest of these guys are badly underperforming. In Edmonds’ case, it very well could be because he’s finished, but we don’t have enough evidence just yet. Iguchi isn’t young, but he shouldn’t be in the decline phase of his career (although after the Marcus Giles Fiasco, one never knows).
That leaves Kouz and Khalil. The former has only one season under his belt, while the latter is known to be a streaky hitter. Both are in what should be their physical primes. If either of those guys finishes with numbers anywhere near where they’re at now, their careers are effectively over. If you believe they’re done, then I’m out of answers.
Sorry, just needed a reality check there. Now I can go back to laughing at the notion that acquiring Reggie Willits (not Reggie Jackson) or Nyjer Morgan (not Joe Morgan) will magically cure whatever may ail the Padres. Yes, I actually heard this suggested on talk radio Tuesday night. It makes about as much sense as believing that the Padres truly are this bad at hitting baseballs.
#49@MB: It might balance out. You’ll occasionally see some bench players with positive numbers (Scott Hairston, 2007), to go along with others who are well below 100.
#50@parlo: Unless something has changed this year, you can bring in food. I did it all the time.
Beavers are trying to get back in it, now 8-4. Gerut with a HR and a sac fly, Headley just hit a ground-rule double that would have made it 8-5 if the ball had stayed in.
Geoff, I gotta disagree about Willits
He’s 26, he fits the profile of what we want in a CF perfectly (takes pitches, walks, slaps the ball around) and brings speed. He’s never been given a chance to really play because the Angels have so many outfielders. Give him a chance and he should fit perfectly and long term with the Padres and Petco. I think we need some speed and the other option is to trade Greene to the Cubs (who are interested in him) for Felix Pie, Eric Patterson/Ronnie Cedeno and someone else.
#20@KRS1: Are we looking at the same Huffman?
#51@Tom Waits: Yeah, good point. Plus, there are plenty of starters under 100 … not sure exactly how it’d work out. Still, I’d guess starters are better overall. Something that could be looked at, though. I believe someone has actually (or at least something similar). I’ll let you guys know if I find it.
I can’t help but think of yesterday’s UT blurb about the Padres interest from last year in Felix Pie and the Cubs reciprocal interest in Khalil. I would think long and hard about doing a Greene for Pie/Cedeno.
#55@SDSUBaseball: Huffman’s a nice prospect, but he’s not hitting any better in AA than Headley did, and Chase has struggled badly to start 2008.
#54@Loren: I sure don’t “want” a slap hitter in CF. I’ve yet to see a convincing argument as to why that works better in Petco and how it would be effective on the road. I’d much rather have a solid OBP guy with very good defense, some speed, and enough power to hit 20 HR. But if the choice is between Edmonds circa 2008 and Willits (and if next year’s choice is similar), then Willits wins.
#58@Tom Waits: We had that guy at one point, but they are hard to come by.
#59@Steve C: Oh, I agree. I’m just disagreeing with the idea that Willits “perfectly” fits our needs. He may be an acceptable solution, depending on his defense and how the rest of the lineup shapes up.
#58@Tom Waits:
But, Tom,
Slap hitting shows up to the ballpark every day; 20 home runs only about once a week and not even that.
An interesting look at pitching stats … and 4 pitchers who are off to good starts …
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7450
… including Padres’ Randy Wolf.
#50@parlo: #52@Coronado Mike: Yep, you can bring in all the food you want. Beverages are limited to small sealed water bottles.
#45@MB: Just to illustrate that Greene and Bard are above average players for their position (OPS+), with Iguchi average but below the median:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-burdens-of-being-average/
2007 OPS+ by position
Pos Mean Median
C 86 83
1B 115 108
2B 96 100
3B 109 101
SS 94 94
RF 111 105
CF 97 88
LF 107 101
(Minimum 100 plate appearances, Player qualifies at position if 50% or more games played are at that position.
#64@Flash: Nice! I think that is actually the article I was going to look for.
#58@Tom Waits: We had that player. His name was Mike Cameron.
#66@SDSUBaseball: Speaking of Cameron, he had his first game back last night. 3-5 with a double, 2 RBI, a walk and no strike outs.
#54@Loren: Slapping the ball around is not part of the profile that the Padres are looking for.
#66@SDSUBaseball: Too bad he couldn’t stay away from the drugs, huh?
#69@Richard Wade: I dont think thats why he isnt on the Padres.
#55@SDSUBaseball:
We must be.
Huffman’s numbers so far are decent but look at what Headley did in San Antonio last year. It’s not exactly close yet. Like I said by the end of the season he might be pushing OG out the door himself but if we’re looking at the same guy right now it’s a bit pre-mature if you ask me.
#61@Stephen: A guy who gets one slap hit single every game and a half isn’t more valuable than a guy who homers once every week and a half, but still gets on base 36% of the time.
The list of successful slap hitters in the last 20 years is very short. Defenses start to crowd them, pitchers start to challenge them. Every once in a while you’ll get a Brett Butler.
#66@SDSUBaseball: Yes, we did. Carlos Beltran would also work. Even DeJesus might do.
#71@KRS1: Gotcha. I must have mis-read. I got the impression you were writing him off as a possibility.
I wonder how much truth there was to the offseason rumor of Headley to the Pirates for Nate McLouth and X Nady. If anyone is keeping track, those two combined to go 6-for-7 with 3 doubles, 6 RBI, 3 BB’s, and 5 runs today against the Mets.
current stats:
McClouth: .342, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 12 2B
Nady: .337, 4 HR, 26 RBI. 9 2B)
It might have just been a rumor but if it wasn’t, I imagine Kevn Towers is kicking himself right about now for not pulling that one off.
#74@JMAR: Nady always seems to start hot. Then people re-read the scouting report and throw him fastballs up and sliders away.
McClouth was interesting. A Pmac bat with better defense in a corner, but probably not a CF.
#75@Tom Waits: You’re right about Nady but you never know, he might actually adjust to the adjustments and keep it up for a full season. Naaaaah.
As for McLouth, I didn’t think of him as a CF either but he’s playing everyday in CF for Pittsburgh and he’s having an All-Star caliber season so far.
#75@Tom Waits: What is a PMAC bat anyway ? It’s a bat that probably find itself out of the league shortly. He sux.
#77@JP: Snap judgment much? He’s one of 3 Padre hitters with an OPS+ near 100. Good eye at the plate, moderate power.
Does he sux as much as Luis Gonzalez does this year? No, he doesn’t.
#76@JMAR: Playing in CF and doing it well aren’t the same thing, but Edmonds isn’t doing that either. Last time I checked McClouth’s fielding numbers were poor, but he might end up being fine in a corner anyway. Still, I doubt Towers is kicking himself for that right now.
Ha, remember last year at this time when the general fan populace was really down on Mike Cameron? Now we long for the halcyon days of yore, when Cameron was patrolling center field, his majestic strides effortlessly tracking down loud outs, and whipping his bat through the zone to send balls flying deep to left. Seriously, though, Cameron had a .508 OPS last year after April in 116 PA, a good reminder that it’s still too early to write off even people on the wrong side of 30 (Cameron was 34).
#78@Tom Waits: Glad you remember my Luis Gonzo request, just to keep me honest….PMAC is one of the Pad’s best hitters ? Perhaps, but this shows just how woeful this team is offensively.
#80@Ben B.: Cameron was also not almot 40 and coming off of an injury pleauged season.
#81@JP: Right now PMac is an average major league hitter. He has a very good minor league track record, even including a down 2006. How do you get “sux” from that?
#80@Ben B.: Good times. Of course at the end of April last year we were at .500, with a positive run differential, and only 2.5 games back.
#83@Tom Waits: and Nog and Crudge were on fire!
Brad Wilkerson has been designated for assignment by Seattle. Does anyone think he has anything left in the tank?
Not a bad guy to pick up if we can get Reed to come along with him.
I guess I Still Don’t Understand Sample Size….It’s difficult to do this. I am pushing the panic button. I am trying to remember if I did this in 2006, when the Pads started out 9-15.
#86@JP: Oh, don’t get me wrong, my panic button is nothing but red plastic shards. But if every Padre had hit like PMac, we’d have won several more games.
The big difference is how strong Arizona has started and how deep they look. Their rotation starts with Webb and Haren, Owings is doing great, they’ve got the Unit healthy, and they just promoted Max Scherzer, another prize gained by not adhering to slot.
#74@JMAR: Nady’s performance today caught my eye also … plus the fact that Oliver Perez was the opposing starting pitcher …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=280430121
… not to mention Gomez at SS and Meek pitching a few innings … and Jason Bay, of course … hmmm, lots o’ former-Padres out there …
Padres have reportedly offered Juan Castro a major league deal. He’s deciding between us and the Dodgers. Maybe this explains the Robles waiver.
http://tinyurl.com/5vlr4o
#89@Tom Waits: hmm I wonder if that means they are looking at greene to the Cubs for Pie a little more.
#90@Steve C: I don’t see how Castro is an upgrade over Robles, is the thing. Career 603 OPS with a 269 (not a typo, 269) OBP. That’s worth a major league deal?
#86 JP, In 2006, the team was 8-10 on April 23. In the final week of April they lost 5 of 6. They then started May with an 8 game winning streak. So the amount of time in last place was short lived. It was less than a week.
I agree with you 100% the only thing he has over Robles is that he has proven that he can play SS at the major leauge level and if the Padres are planning on blowing up the roster I would imagine the one guy that has any trade value (that they would be willing to trade) is greene. Thats the only reaosn why I think they would make that move.
#72@Tom Waits: That probably would have worked better as a soundclip complete with Coach Kentera impersonation.
#94@Stephen: Now I can fine-tune my humor sensor so it works with your posts.
The Beavers have closed to 9-8, but keft Headley (3-4, 2 doubles) on 3rd in the 8th, where he arrived with no outs.
#50@parlo: When did they stop allowing you to bring food in? That stinks!
97 Pat, I was wrong. You still can.
#85@Tom Waits: As to PMAC, on second thought, his 2006 AAA year is compelling me to want to give him a bit more leash. You would think, though he was hurt much of 2007,that he would still have had a better year- his numbers were poor last year considering the expectations.
Thus, again, I concede that we just do not have enough of a sample size for me to take the radical “he stinks” position to the bank.
Would you concede though that he will be at best, a 4th outfielder at best at this level ? He doesn’t hit for all that much power (heck, he had only 4 homers last year in 1/2 a PCL SEASON, his defensive shortcomings are noticible (please don’t give me defensive “stats” to counter), lack of speed (even John Kruk had 20 stolen bases with the Pads in 86….and perhaps most importantly, can he hit lefties ? The Pads don’t seem to think so….
#98@parlo: OK, good deal. You need to be able to bring in snacks at least to help you make it through those 22 inning games.