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Faulty Radar, and Performance by Position

Wednesday, September 24, 2008
by Geoff Young
I've got a few things on my mind this morning. First off, I'm reorganizing the categories of this here blog, trying to put some of those information architecture skills I learned at my last job to use. Among other things, I'm discovering that it's a lot harder to organize your own stuff than someone else's. Anyway, in the process of doing this, I've rediscovered a few ancient posts. One of them (pardon the ugly tables) discusses the limitations in using statistics to evaluate prospects. I'm thinking of Matt Antonelli and the fact that he's fallen off a few radar screens because of his poor showing at Portland this year. Not that Antonelli is the same type of player, but I wonder how many folks had given ...
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Posted in Research | 4 Comments »

Unfinished Notes on a Bullpen

Wednesday, September 3, 2008
by Geoff Young
Warning: This post is a mess; proceed at your own risk... I was thinking about the bullpen a while back and got to wondering a few things: How have Padres relievers performed this year as compared to the starters? How does this compare with league average? How does this compare with recent Padres teams? How does this compare with all Padres teams? What were some shared characteristics of the good bullpens? Of the bad ones? How was workload distributed (i.e., was it spread fairly evenly or did two or three guys carry most of the burden)? How often were relievers used? How hard were they worked? As is often the case, I got distracted. I ended up tackling (well, maybe not tackling, more like tapping on the shoulder) #3 and #4, and ignoring the rest. ...
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Posted in Baseball | 3 Comments »

Padres tickets  Chargers tickets  Sports tickets

Please, Don’t Beat the Worms

Tuesday, August 26, 2008
by Geoff Young
In the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual I noted that Adrian Gonzalez didn't ground into many double plays in 2007. Given how slow he is and how many he'd hit into the year before, this surprised me. Well, now he's back to his old tricks: Adrian Gonzalez, Grounders and Double Plays YearPAGIDPGB% Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and Hardball Times, and are through games of August 25, 2008. 20066312443.8 2007720636.9 20085672043.6 This is a little troubling: In the book, I observed that his GB% actually declined from 2006 to 2007, which didn't make any sense to me at the time. I don't remember which source I used and I'm too lazy to go digging through my notes, but this time I've ...
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Posted in Baseball | No Comments »

Kouz and Kent

Tuesday, August 12, 2008
by Geoff Young
While playing with the PI tool at Baseball-Reference over the weekend I stumbled onto something kind of interesting. Have you ever noticed how similar the first three seasons of Kevin Kouzmanoff's career (through Sunday, at least) are to those of Jeff Kent? Jeff Kent and Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ages 24 - 26 PlayerYearsPABAOBPSLGBB/KBB/PAISOXB/HOPS+ Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of August 10, 2008. Kent'92-'941339.270.325.451.323.060.181.372107 Kouz'06-'081076.274.322.454.264.049.180.358108 For grins, here are their lines per 162 games played: Jeff Kent and Kevin Kouzmanoff, Ages 24 - 26, per 162 Games PlayerYearsABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSO Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of August 10, 2008. Kent'92-'9456479152323219237115 Kouz'06-'0858867161323238632120 Even the shapes are remarkably alike. Of course, Kent was a second baseman (although he did play some third ...
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Posted in Baseball | 28 Comments »

Padres Farm Report: Spotlight on Lake Elsinore

Wednesday, August 6, 2008
by Geoff Young
The situation may be bleak in San Diego this year, but a mere 74 miles to the north, things are looking pretty good. Let's take a quick drive up I-15 and see what's happening with the Storm... Lake Elsinore Storm in a Box: Record: 53-61 Runs Scored: 648 Runs Allowed: 629 BA/OBP/SLG: .275/.357/.400 (California League: .274/.343/.413) ERA: 4.89 (CAL: 4.57) DER: .628 (MWL: .629) Source: Baseball-Reference. First, the bad news. The pitching at Elsinore has been brutal. Only two teams, Rancho Cucamonga and High Desert, have higher team ERAs so far in 2008. High Desert has a good excuse, playing half its games in one of the most extreme environments in all of affiliated baseball. The Diamond, home of the Storm, historically has favored ...
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Posted in Minors | 14 Comments »

Please Help, My Shortstop Is Broken

Thursday, July 31, 2008
by Geoff Young
My latest article at Hardball Times deals with Khalil Greene's disappointing season. Here's something I uncovered in my research that didn't make the final cut. These are Greene's home/road splits in seasonal notation (i.e., per 162 games -- thank you, Baseball-Reference, for making it so easy): Khalil Greene at Petco Park, 2004-2008 YearABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLG Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of July 29, 2008. 20045135612315666583108.241.345.338 200557359146302159728110.256.285.399 200655356116212167251137.210.282.346 200762076134316258531164.216.258.412 200859151129183214251129.218.295.365   Khalil Greene away from Petco Park, 2004-2008 YearABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLG Statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference and are through games of July 29, 2008. 2004618101186582298738111.301.353.543 200559478145502258939139.244.308.465 20065499215447223745395.280.356.507 20076731111936103111935107.288.322.519 20086124212929396816181.212.225.317 Just for grins, I dug up comparable player-seasons while I was under the metaphorical hood. This is kind of esoteric, ...
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Posted in Baseball | 97 Comments »

Frame by Frame

Monday, May 5, 2008
by Geoff Young
One aspect of the Padres we examined in the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual was their run differential by inning in 2007. Among other things, we learned that the Padres completely dominated the ninth inning of games last year, outscoring their opponents, 81-44. Not including extra frames, the Pads had negative run differentials in just two innings (sixth, -2; seventh, -4) in '07. With about 20% of the 2008 schedule in the books, I thought it might be instructive to see how the this year's Padres are doing. I also thought it might be fun to try a different approach in looking at this question. Instead of using straight runs scored minus runs allowed, what if we use the Pythagorean theorem to determine the expected number ...
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Posted in Baseball | 69 Comments »

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